Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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Sicanta
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Sicanta »

All of Italy under quarantine now, 'except for work travel and emergency'.
sanjaykumar
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sanjaykumar »

^^Thanks for the ID conference report.
Sicanta
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Sicanta »

Deleted
Last edited by Sicanta on 10 Mar 2020 03:26, edited 1 time in total.
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Meanwhile from Israel:
11 new cases in Israel. (total 50)

All people entering Israel now must be quarantined. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: "After a day of complex discussions, we have made a decision: Whoever arrives in Israel from abroad will enter quarantine for 14 days. This is a difficult decision but it is essential to maintaining public health, which takes precedence over everything. This decision will be in effect for two weeks. At the same time, we will make decisions to safeguard the Israeli economy"

May paanwala sources say that there was lot of pressure from Pence/DT to not to single out USA. Initially Israel just wanted to include only "hotspots" (which included USA).. so they included all the countries so that USA is not named.

<Won't be surprised> if Similar discussions are happening in India. USA should have been ready..after all we knew this particular virus for at least 8 weeks and should have been ready. CDC in last 2-3 years has really became a place where technical excellence is not valued as much as politics.
saip
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by saip »

BSRMurthy, just curious about point 2. If I had live flu vaccine, will that inhibit this Covid19 infection?
hanumadu
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by hanumadu »

The common flu virus stops spreading as it gets warmer. What about those who are already infected? Will infected people get cured of influenza if temperatures rise or does they have to go through the regular duration of flu infection of 3 days or 7 days or what ever it is?

What is the duration of infection of COVID19 for those who are getting cured? If we can somehow prolong the life of those infected till april or may, is there a chance of them getting better?
ramana
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by ramana »

SaiP. Flu masks the COVID-19 is what I understood.

Hanumadu, the incubation is 1-14 days and recovery is 2 weeks.
COVID -19 Onset is sudden.
No sore throat vs others flu and common cold.
No runny nose

There is a poster on my Twitter line.
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

saip wrote:BSRMurthy, just curious about point 2. If I had live flu vaccine, will that inhibit this Covid19 infection?
NO. (definitely not against Covid19) -- Flu vaccine is a good idea anyway. (this year's version will work against nasty strain H1N1 which is going around - which may be even more important)
hanumadu
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by hanumadu »

ramana wrote:SaiP. Flu masks the COVID-19 is what I understood.

Hanumadu, the incubation is 1-14 days and recovery is 2 weeks.
COVID -19 Onset is sudden.
No sore throat vs others flu and common cold.
No runny nose

There is a poster on my Twitter line.
Thanks Ramana.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sanjaykumar »

saip wrote:BSRMurthy, just curious about point 2. If I had live flu vaccine, will that inhibit this Covid19 infection?
My post disappeared. That is a good question, there may be some cross protection. I would like to see the Italian dataon odds ratio of Wuhan virus infection and immunisation status. I am assuming they have a vigorous influenza vaccination campaign as well and they use the same antigens/vaccines. I am not familiar with China's vaccination programmes.

In fact the 2020 vaccine has been about 35% effective against the flu, so statistically the vaccine will not protect you against the flu.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sanjaykumar »

^^Actually with the Wuhan virus there is a smoldering/indolent period (subacute) for upto two weeks, influenza symptoms are acute onset.
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

ramana wrote:AmberG, Where in Northern California?
Placer County has issues.
My sons (and family) live in the Bay area, the hospital where she goes regularly is on the east-bay - Martinez -- The locality is close to the base where they were isolating lot of cases and the hospital is sort of a place of concern.
(Obviously we have known this for weeks and are/were concerned)

Part which is really unbelievable -- everyone is calling it a scandal -- is extremely incompetent administration - looks like whole CDC and other admin post is taken up by yes men who know nothing about medical stuff but are royal trump followers.

Anyway now they are letting the testing kits ( about a million right away) get distributed. But CDC could have made them ready weeks/months ago - like India or Korea etc did..

My DIL, BTW, has (finally) gotten a test (They changed, the testing criteria) , But I think it is criminal to let these paper pushers make testing "process" so hard that even doctors and nurses (some of whom have had contact with those who have even been tested positive) were finding to get tested very hard. America is not poor, or resource bounded why this criminal red tape?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by BSR Murthy »

saip wrote:BSRMurthy, just curious about point 2. If I had live flu vaccine, will that inhibit this Covid19 infection?
Point 2 is referring to co-infection, ie., getting simultaneously infected with both influenza and Covid 19. That possibility is very low. Meaning if some one has flu symptoms and tested positive for influenza, it’s just that and do not look for Covid-19 in such patients. That does not imply flu vaccination will protect against Covid-19.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Folks - For symptoms / prevention/ how to isolate/ etc... worldometer, or any other site will give very good link: Book mark it:
Here is one CDC site .. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... ptoms.html
Or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... oms/#ref-1


They are written very nicely -- Use caution to make sure you are getting reliable data or ask your doctor etc ..(quite a bit of misinformation on the net).
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sanjaykumar »

It is low partially because testing terminates once there is a diagnosis. Just picked up an anaplasmosis and Epstein Barr virus coinfection.

The flu vaccine may reduce common corona virus infections. Those who have been vaccinated may have a lower risk of the common cold in the winter season.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sudarshan »

The worldometer site gives stats on active infections and serious infections for each country. Some countries only report active infections, no stats on serious or critical ones (Iran is one example).

The fraction of serious infections, the world over, is stated as 13% currently (as compared to total active cases). It started off around 20% or 25% (don't remember exactly).

Now, please take out the China data, and calculate the fraction of serious/ critical infections vs. active infections, for the rest of the world. It comes to less than 4% (3.9xx%), excluding countries such as Iran, Algeria, Bahrain, Qatar, etc., which don't report the number of serious cases.

The individual countries or areas which have the highest fractions of serious/ critical cases are:

Mexico-------17%
Singapore----15%
Poland--------12%
Hong Kong----11%
Costa Rica---11%
San Marino---10%
Italy------------9%
Japan----------8%

And decreasing down to fractions of a % for many countries. China has a really high fraction, like 27%. The large number of cases in China (still) is skewing the fraction up, the rest of the world doesn't seem that high. I also think the initially high 20% to 25% fraction of serious/ critical to active cases, might have been due to the high fraction in China, now that China is winding down, the fraction is also reducing.

EDIT: Except for Italy, the remaining countries in the above list (including Japan) have pretty small numbers of cases. The 17% in Mexico, for instance, is based on a sample of 6 active cases. Maybe they just aren't testing and finding all active cases over there.
Last edited by sudarshan on 10 Mar 2020 07:47, edited 1 time in total.
sanjaykumar
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sanjaykumar »

We are not referring to total immunity. A vaccine that is 20% effective may break a pandemic. I would like the mathematicians to do some useful modelling to support or refute this. What is the threshold of efficacy, not for individual protection but for the herd?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

^^^

I saw that -- The ignorance up there matched his arrogance (DT was literally saying "All doctors are telling me how come I know so much about it etc" and surrounded by yes men who will not speak up ... Never saw it in USA (or India) before.. Of course he has repeatedly said it was all a hoax /sign/
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Vayutuvan »

Amber G. wrote:CDC in last 2-3 years has really became a place where technical excellence is not valued as much as politics.
Amber G. ji, any evidence or it is just the general "Trump is anti-science" perception that is making people say that?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Did anyone see Trump/Pence press conf today?
My take - The groveling of Pence in praise of "deal leader" was nauseating ..Never saw North Korean type tamasha before.
They did announce that more test-kits will be available but other than that nothing encouraging. No one at the top gives any confidence. No one said anything encouraging except *everyone* telling how great the dear leader is. /sigh/
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by rahulm »

Last edited by rahulm on 10 Mar 2020 07:09, edited 1 time in total.
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Vayutuvan wrote:
Amber G. wrote:CDC in last 2-3 years has really became a place where technical excellence is not valued as much as politics.
Amber G. ji, any evidence or it is just the general "Trump is anti-science" perception that is making people say that?
Not really, take ANY kind of objective measure. Who is at the top. What do they know.

Simple example I gave - Korea (or UK or Germany or Singapore enough for them) was ready to get 10,000+ test kits per day.. US till March 1 less than 500 kits in all this time !
(We used to be (and our labs and schools are still) #1 by far in technically ).

Take Canada, in Alberta - everyone who goes to ER gets a swab of the throat and you get results (for Covid29 and Flu) almost right away.
Here in the Bay area (not far from Stanford) a doctor (my DIL) gets tested, after some haggling, and test result will take about 3-4 days...

Not an isolated case - can give many examples ..
Here is another
Look up DST, or Principal Scientific Adviser for Modi in India - compare that to Trump's counter parts ...

More discussion may be OT here, but for the current crisis IMO the main reason we (US) were not prepared is our own fault.

Or Steven Chu (Nobel Laureate)'s post is now held by Rick Perry..



How many posts (is there ANY) are occupied by people who are qualified, and one can make up their own mind.
***
Coming back to topic of CV - Here is just one example of the leadership .
..
DHHS Secretary Alex Azar Says He "Could Not Give a Number" As to How Many Americans Have Been Tested for Coronavirus; Secretary Azar Fails Even to Give a Number for Direct-from-CDC Tests Conducted at Public Health Labs—Though These Must Be Reported to the CDC
Have you seen this kind of DHHS Sec anytime before?
Last edited by Amber G. on 10 Mar 2020 08:34, edited 2 times in total.
BSR Murthy
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by BSR Murthy »

“Will a flu shot protect against developing a severe case of COVID-19?

People often compare COVID-19 to influenza, and it’s true that the two diseases share some similarities, says Yale Medicine infectious disease specialist Manisha Juthani, MD. A major difference is that the flu is preventable by vaccine, and, so far, COVID-19 is not, she says.

But while a flu vaccine won’t prevent or reduce severity of COVID-19, public health authorities strongly advise everyone to get their annual flu shot. In addition to preventing or mitigating the severity of flu, the vaccine may simplify the evaluation of patients during the flu season who may have a more serious condition.”

https://www.yalemedicine.org/conditions/covid-19/

While we do not yet have data on Covid-19 patients and their flu vaccination status, I would think such subset data should be available sometime soon. It would be great if common flu vaccine can moderate Covid 19 illness if not outright prevent the disease, but, I would very much doubt that possibility.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by disha »

Amber G. wrote: My take - The groveling of Pence in praise of "deal leader" was nauseating ..Never saw North Korean type tamasha before. ... /sigh/
Have you seen the grovelling done in praise of CA Gov Gavin Newsom on his presser on Wuhan virus & availability of test kits?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chola »

I guess the oversight regarding Italy isn't just in the US. Yes, how is this possible at this stage?

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/ne ... 87072.html

CORONAVIRUS: PASSENGERS ENTERING UK FROM ITALY FACE ‘ZERO CHECKS’ AT AIRPORT
‘How can this be possible?’ says returning traveller

Helen Coffey

People entering the UK from Italy face “zero checks” for coronavirus at the airport, according to passengers.

Journalist Federico Gatti tweeted a picture of passport gates at Gatwick with no staff manning them on Sunday 8 March, writing: “Just landed in London from Milan. Zero checks. No info. How can it be possible?”

It follows the Italian government announcing that the entire Lombardy region, which includes Milan, plus 14 provinces including Modena, Parma, Piacenza, Reggio Emilia, Rimini, Padua and Venice are under quarantine.

The lockdown applies to approximately 16 million people – more than a quarter of Italy’s whole population.

Other travellers confirmed the lack of checks at the airport on social media.

...
It is just a matter of time before it is everywhere in Europe and North America. Because there seems to be willful blindness when the threat source is a western nation like Italy.
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Here is some article about the concerns about testing kits and US, I was talking about in brf.. Some details..

How testing failures allowed coronavirus to sweep the U.S.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

Amber G. wrote:Did anyone see Trump/Pence press conf today?
My take - The groveling of Pence in praise of "deal leader" was nauseating ..Never saw North Korean type tamasha before.
They did announce that more test-kits will be available but other than that nothing encouraging. No one at the top gives any confidence. No one said anything encouraging except *everyone* telling how great the dear leader is. /sigh/
You're letting personal bias get in the way of facts. The one thing the administration can be faulted on is the delay of getting kits, but to put in perspective the administration has done many things correctly. First the travel restrictions to/from China on Feb.2nd expanded further on Feb. 29th. Quarantined and evacuated persons coming into the US were brought into 15 different military bases which was setup in early February. Early on there was sufficient concern that COVID-19 was a Chinese biological warfare experiment gone awry. In Dec. 2019, the US Army Biological Warfare Center in Fort Derrick, MD began ramping up operations for biodefense, which is beyond the scope of the CDC.

Image
srin
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by srin »

I'm concerned about the spread in US. I came back to desh last week after 2 weeks in the Khan-dom, including Bay area (including RSA Conf) and Mid-West.

There was nothing in US, if you exclude the hand sanitizer at the United checkin kiosks.
OTOH, entering India, there was the typical form filling but two levels of checks, one a forehead thermometer and two, IR camera and then, an interview by a medical officer on where I'd travelled etc. At that time, they were mostly bothered about East Asian countries, Italy and Iran.

That said, I don't know how any amount of sanitizer can help if, at the security check, one has to keep bags, electronics and jackets in the same bin where you keep your shoes !
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Rishi_Tri »

Just to put things into perspective:

During 2017-18 season (about December'17 to March'18) in US almost 49 Million people had flu, 1 million were hospitalized, and almost 80,000 fatalities were reported.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-flu-s ... 1547243712

If the administration is behaving in a certain fashion, its because flu or a similar pandemic has a very different dimension in US.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Cain Marko »

chola wrote:I guess the oversight regarding Italy isn't just in the US. Yes, how is this possible at this stage?

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/ne ... 87072.html

CORONAVIRUS: PASSENGERS ENTERING UK FROM ITALY FACE ‘ZERO CHECKS’ AT AIRPORT
‘How can this be possible?’ says returning traveller

Helen Coffey

People entering the UK from Italy face “zero checks” for coronavirus at the airport, according to passengers.

Journalist Federico Gatti tweeted a picture of passport gates at Gatwick with no staff manning them on Sunday 8 March, writing: “Just landed in London from Milan. Zero checks. No info. How can it be possible?”

It follows the Italian government announcing that the entire Lombardy region, which includes Milan, plus 14 provinces including Modena, Parma, Piacenza, Reggio Emilia, Rimini, Padua and Venice are under quarantine.

The lockdown applies to approximately 16 million people – more than a quarter of Italy’s whole population.

Other travellers confirmed the lack of checks at the airport on social media.

...
It is just a matter of time before it is everywhere in Europe and North America. Because there seems to be willful blindness when the threat source is a western nation like Italy.
This is UNBELIEVABLE :shock:
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sudarshan »

srin wrote: That said, I don't know how any amount of sanitizer can help if, at the security check, one has to keep bags, electronics and jackets in the same bin where you keep your shoes !
Hah! There you go. Not just your shoes, but the shoes of hundreds of others before you on the same day. And if those bins aren't regularly cleaned, well.... Americans don't have this sense of footwear being unclean. In India, you leave them outside as much as possible, definitely don't go tramping around the house wearing them, most definitely don't get into bed with them (cuddling your pets in bed with you to ensure a good dose of nasties). Americans do all of those. Their sense of hygiene is *#$#@(!## ass-backwards. I've seen guys keep their cell phones and wallets deep inside their street shoes, while working out in the gym. How do you avoid smearing your face and ears with germs after an experiment like that?

I guess the best thing to do is to wipe down your own baggage and electronics after taking them out of those (dust)-bins. Either that, or they need to start selling shoes in airports, and ensure everybody has a new pair before boarding, just leave your old pair behind. That way the security can be sure there's no weapons in those shoes. Somebody suggest this to Nike, I'm sure they'll flip for the idea.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by mappunni »

The first case in the North Dallas area

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/frisc ... s/2327285/

Now the news is that the man post-visit California has visited the local Costco in Frisco TX

The school district is now disinfecting the building where his kids go to school.

https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2020/03/09/fri ... ronavirus/
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

mappunni wrote:The first case in the North Dallas area

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/frisc ... s/2327285/

Now the news is that the man post-visit California has visited the local Costco in Frisco TX

The school district is now disinfecting the building where his kids go to school.

https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2020/03/09/fri ... ronavirus/
Maybe a travel ban on California and Washington State is needed.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Avarachan »

Regarding the coronavirus in the U.S., my opinion is that the situation is about to explode. There are three reasons for this.

1) There is now community transmission in many different parts of the U.S. It's not just in a few big cities. I was startled by the case of a school employee in Georgia.
2) The Trump administration seems more interested in propping up the U.S. economy than in stopping the disease's spread. I was shocked two days ago by an interview with Vice President Pence. The interviewer asked him if the elderly should avoid air travel. He refused to say yes! This is insane with this many instances of community transmission existing.
3) Ordinary Americans simply aren't taking this seriously enough. There is now community transmission in the Washington DC area (the Episcopal church in Georgetown, etc.). Nonetheless, large conferences there are still occurring.

Regarding the situation in the U.S., I recommend these articles:

https://www.theamericanconservative.com ... ity-trump/

https://www.theamericanconservative.com ... ard-truth/

India needs to stop flights from the U.S. while there is still time. Because the medical infrastructure in India isn't good, India will experience a nightmare if community transmission starts.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by partha »

Rishi_Tri wrote:Just to put things into perspective:

During 2017-18 season (about December'17 to March'18) in US almost 49 Million people had flu, 1 million were hospitalized, and almost 80,000 fatalities were reported.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-flu-s ... 1547243712

If the administration is behaving in a certain fashion, its because flu or a similar pandemic has a very different dimension in US.
Downplaying by comparing this to flu by Trump was irresponsible. Covid-19 is more dangerous than flu:

* No vaccine or treatment yet
* Rate of spread is much higher compared to flu
* Spreads before symptoms show up
* Hospitalization rate is 10%. Taking the above example, about 5 million people will need ICU admission. What's the total ICU capacity of US? About 100K.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Sicanta »

Coronavirus in Kerala: Six more test positive, number of cases rise to 15, CM orders shutdown

http://m.timesofindia.com/articleshow/7 ... aign=cppst

This mainly includes the unfortunate who came in contact with the family of 3 who returned from Italy and hid their status.

3 more cases in karnataka
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by rsingh »

ramana wrote:
I saw that Immigration asks which flight you arrived on and not where are you coming from and list all flights.
Second when we visited Rome two years back they stamped the passport.
So the EU not stamping passport could be oversight or bogus.


The DMO is not taking responsibility for any failures on the govt's part.
Saar if one is citizen of one of the EU countries, passports are not stamped.Intra EU flights are treated as local flights. If one is flying -in from non EU country (with EU passport), again it is not stamped as they have automatic scanners of passports. Similarly when one is flying out (with EU passport), passports are scanned and no exit stamping is needed.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Krita »

Sicanta wrote:Coronavirus in Kerala: Six more test positive, number of cases rise to 15, CM orders shutdown

http://m.timesofindia.com/articleshow/7 ... aign=cppst

This mainly includes the unfortunate who came in contact with the family of 3 who returned from Italy and hid their status.

3 more cases in karnataka
A two year old toddler's condition is reported as critical. This does not sound good. As per the info on Worldmeter, the number of critical cases in India is zero till now.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by SRajesh »

srin wrote:I'm concerned about the spread in US. I came back to desh last week after 2 weeks in the Khan-dom, including Bay area (including RSA Conf) and Mid-West.

There was nothing in US, if you exclude the hand sanitizer at the United checkin kiosks.
OTOH, entering India, there was the typical form filling but two levels of checks, one a forehead thermometer and two, IR camera and then, an interview by a medical officer on where I'd travelled etc. At that time, they were mostly bothered about East Asian countries, Italy and Iran.

That said, I don't know how any amount of sanitizer can help if, at the security check, one has to keep bags, electronics and jackets in the same bin where you keep your shoes !
And yet we are 'third world' country onlee :lol:
Look at the lock-down in Italy!!
This is what you get if you suck up to Chine and have lax control!
All in all 56!! WHO should commend GOI :D
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