Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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nam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nam »

Gyan wrote:
nam wrote:Italy has 80% of the infection above 50 years. We will probably hear about 300+ death on a daily basis...
My back of envelope calculation is giving a very frightening high death rate for Patients above 75+ years suffering from COVID in Italy. Can someone better equipped comment on it?
40% of the infection are above 70 years. That is close to 12K-13K, based on the current figure.
Last edited by nam on 17 Mar 2020 03:01, edited 1 time in total.
nam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nam »

The Chinese have clearly hidden death numbers. Based on the infection & death rate, the Chinese model must have come up with a frightening death numbers.

UK model is coming up with 250K deaths only in UK.

The Chinese made the decision for total lockdown, once they looked at the number. France & Italy have now made the same conclusion. It is a bit late for Italy.

For reference Italy was 53 deaths two weeks back..
nam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nam »

South Korean have done the correct thing. They are testing and chasing hard. If countries impose lockdown, they need to do mass testing and chase every case.

There is no other way to prevent deaths.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by devaraya »

For Gene Sequencing and cluster analysis (India is missing in the countries list)
https://nextstrain.org/ncov
https://twitter.com/nextstrain
533 of 533 genomes sampled between Dec 2019 and Mar 2020.


Another good source and very Good analysis by Trevor Bedford https://twitter.com/trvrb
https://twitter.com/UWVirology
They had genomes for 39 viruses sampled from WA. Importantly 35 of these 39 viruses (90%) fall into a single genetic cluster indicating a single ~Jan introduction from China and subsequent local spread.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by devaraya »

Crowdsourcing for "Additive Manufacturing" using 3-D printer's for components to overcome the traditional limitations of Supply Chain or if Supply Chain is completely broken.
I am not sure how many 3-D printers are avialable in India .. but here is the link for Public database of people from around the world who have 3D printers and/or skills they are willing to donate or collaborate:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =587452832

Example on how they addressed the valves for Respirators: An Italian hospital ran out of ICU valves. A local biz brought a 3D printer to the hospital, redesigned & produced the valves in a few hours. “At the time of writing, 10 patients are accompanied in breathing by a machine that uses a 3D printed valve.”
https://www.3dprintingmedia.network/cov ... on-device/
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Rishirishi »

The Kerala group was never really contained.

There was the family who returned from Italy who lied to authorities and infected people around them.

Another guy escaped from quarantine, tried to catch a flight out and caused 250 people to be offloaded.

Another guy who was in home quarantine also ignored the restrictions, got in a car to travel, car got into an accident on the way, was admitted in another hospital where they did not disclose that they were under quarantine, and now 30 doctors and medical staff from that hospital have to be quarantined!

So many selfish jackasses, despite being in the so-called 100% literate state. Govt should press criminal charges against these reckless scum and name and shame them.
They should be charged with manslaughter.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by arvin »

To add to the kerala cases above, a doctor in Premier Shri chitra thirunal medical institute was infected after he returned from spain on March 1. He resumed work on march 2 and developed symptoms on march 8. Doctors working with him are under observation now.

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/cor ... 49541.html
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Bay Area has imposed shelter in place order from midnight. Only essential businesses and services to run until April 7. Everyone else asked to stay home and limit trips out. All gatherings of >6 people in public disallowed. Comes into effect midnight.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by IndraD »

Image

armed police protect toilet rolls in US
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by IndraD »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... nic-buying

Panic buying of guns and ammo in US of A! Many of them being bought by Chinese Americans .
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sudeepj »

Soft curfew in Bay area. Now that what was feared has come to happen, I wonder what the path forward is. Yes, cases will die down in three weeks. What comes after that?

One approach may be to have all phones compulsorily enable google location tracking to ensure robust contact tracing?

A second approach may be to rush the vaccine. I dont know why a vaccine is going to take 18-24 months. Once the safety of the vaccine is proven by animal/human trials, you can order a bunch of 20 year old soldiers to be first vaccinated and then infected with the viral strain. This should prove the vaccine one way or the other in a matter of months. I cant think of any other way out of this conundrum. Clearly, the virus is not going anywhere.

My fear is, there are parts of the world today that are at war, just like the world in 1918. It is speculated, that the pandemic flu of 18 infected soldiers and this situation selected for the more dangerous strains of the virus, as the really sick were sent back from the front lines to the hospitals where they spread the virus, while the milder infections continued to be on the front lines. This can happen again on the front lines of Syria/Yemen/...

For the entire world, this is no longer just an epidemic, this is a national security issue and countries/societies must react as if we are now at war.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sudeepj »

I want to make just one thing very clear. There is a propaganda push from the Chinese Communist Party, using their usual handmaidens in the west, to deflect blame from this dire situation the world finds itself in from the Chinese Communist Party. To be very clear..

1. Chinese Communist Party did not shut down the wet markets that all epidemiology experts had been warning against as the likely cause of the next pandemic to strike the world.
2. Chinese Communist Party suppressed all news coming out the struck city of Wuhan, going to the extent of punishing the doctors who were raising the alarm about the new pathogen.
3. Even when the truth was apparent, Chinese Communist Party pressured the WHO and clearly threatened to with-hold all cooperation unless the WHO sugar coated its reports.
4. Finally, Chinese Communist Party pressured the more vulnerable countries against imposing any kind of travel restrictions on outbound Chinese persons and residents.

To anyone with two neurons to fire, its clear that it is the mismanagement of the Chinese Communist Party that is to blame for this dire situation the world finds itself in. The Chinese Communist Party is a menace and the world cooperates with them at their own peril.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sudarshan »

Suraj wrote:Bay Area has imposed shelter in place order from midnight. Only essential businesses and services to run until April 7. Everyone else asked to stay home and limit trips out. All gatherings of >6 people in public disallowed. Comes into effect midnight.
What will they do if people don't obey? Will they still do it if those people are peaceful folk?

I was looking at some data from the 1918 flu ***demic (epi/ pan / aca...). The circumstances of WW-I seem to have greatly exacerbated it.

Looking specifically at the data for India: There seem to have been like 17 million deaths (the figure varies depending on the source, of course, I'm looking at Wiki). Of these, 13.88 million seem to have been in British India. The rest of India seems to have got away with 3.12 million deaths. I once estimated the area of British India (just by eyeballing a map) as approximately 40% of the Indian landmass (undivided India). Assuming that the population was divided in the same way - it turns out that the death rate in British India was 6 to 7 times the figure in the Indian-administered areas.

There was this American called Jabez Sutherland who wrote on the conditions in British India around the beginning of the 19th century, comparing it with a. the USA b. non-British India, which was ruled by Indian kings and administrators. In particular:
A further answer to the assertion that India cannot govern herself—and surely one that should be conclusive—is the fact that, in parts, she is governing herself now, and governing herself well. It is notorious that the very best government in India to-day is not that carried on by the British, but that of several of the native states, notably Baroda and Mysore. In these states, particularly Baroda, the people are more free, more prosperous, more contented, and are making more progress, than in any other part of India. Note the superiority of both these states in the important matter of popular education. Mysore is spending on education more than three times as much per capita as is British India, while Baroda has made her education free and compulsory. Both of these states, but especially Baroda, which has thus placed herself in line with the leading nations of Europe and America by making provision for the education of all her children, may well be contrasted with British India, which provides education, even of the poorest kind, for only one boy in ten and one girl in one hundred and forty-four.
https://ravishankarchavali.blogspot.com ... india.html

It is no wonder that non-British India had such a low death rate as compared to British India, back in 1918, the education levels alone are an indicator.

And to reiterate, the 1918 disaster seems to have been a combination of several unique circumstances, not just an unusual strain of influenza.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

This is the Wuhan coronavirus thread. Those wanting to grandstand about CTs and past history, please find someplace else to do it.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

Some positive news -

Testing in Washington State has increased. About 12,500 people have been tested in a state of 7 million people. That's translates to a rate of about 1785/million or 1 in 560 people. Compared to this, South Korea has tested about 1 in 200 or 3692/million.

2019 Novel Coronavirus Outbreak (COVID-19)
Why South Korea has so few coronavirus deaths while Italy has so many
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by hanumadu »

It's been ten days since the Kerala returned middle aged couple and their son who roamed around Kerala have been quarantined. A few of their friends and relatives have tested positive. I wonder if potential victims of these three came forward to testing and what the results are. Its already been more than 14 days since some of the early interactions of these people. They came to India on 29th febraury, I think. It would be great if there are no new cases from Kerala in the next four days.

India has been lucky so far. touchwood. Hope gods will continue to be merciful to India. Now that no new foreigners are being allowed without mandatory quarantine, local cases and people who are trouble some in following quarantine rules should be dealt with harshly.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by SriKumar »

sudeepj wrote:I want to make just one thing very clear. To anyone with two neurons to fire, its clear that it is the mismanagement of the Chinese Communist Party that is to blame for this dire situation the world finds itself in. The Chinese Communist Party is a menace and the world cooperates with them at their own peril.
Fully agree. I mentioned this in a previous post and repeating it again....stuff that is seen as an internal affair to China is not internal anymore. The stuff they did at Wuhan, and later on minimizing it, and after that hiding the number of infected and dead, put into motion a sequence of events that has now affected probably 90% of population in the northern hemisphere. Their 'internal business' of how their politburo governs the country has come out and affected each of our lives, in multiple ways and will do so for several more months. It is our business now. What US or India or Europe will do about it is unknown but I hope that it wont be business as usual.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by disha »

This is basically a curfew and rumors of lockdown were floating yesterday itself causing a massive run on grocery shops. Before that, there was run on masks so much so that there are reports that firefighters and medical service personnel are begging the community to give them some. I know of a Doctor who is down to 3 scrubs - that is down to 3 days. And the scrub is stretched by the Doctor not taking food during the day and just some water to keep herself hydrated (going in and out of scrub is time-consuming and may also waste the scrub).

People have hoarded decades of toilet paper! The line at the grocery shops ended up achieving exactly opposite to what the county health system wanted to ensure.

It will help in flattening the transmission curve, at the same time it could have been done with less panic and more with genuine concern.

For example, all hospitals within the SF Bay Area could have implemented quite early what Stanford Medical Hospital is doing now https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/ ... -test.html

Orders for area hospitals to have testing centers like above do not have to come from top-down. Hospitals have CEOs who could have monitored the situation in Wuhan since January and knowing that the SF Bay Area is a port of destination for significant Chinese population could have started the testing centers early on. They had the experience of SARS, Avian Flu last time itself!

In the US, health care is local. The first point of contact is usually community hospitals, followed by county hospitals. Private hospitals are generally associated with Universities or Religious affiliations or by big donors or part of an HMO.

It is the job of the county health officers to ensure that support systems are in place or epidemics are avoided. They can work with other county health officers to ensure that they have sufficient gear in place. Actually, if SF Bay Area hospitals are complaining about a lack of testing kits, their CEOs should be summarily fired. SF Bay Area is awash in money and technology. If any testing requires FDA approval, the processes could have been validated and tested way back in 2011 when the movie contagion came about. It is their job and they are highly paid for it. Heck both Roche and ThermoFisher have a presence in SF Bay Area and they can easily ramp up on additional drive by testing.

Even now, the current caseload in CA is lesser than Washington and New York. The worst-hit counties in CA are Santa Clara and LA counties. In a couple of days, it will become clear if we are nearing a plateau on the cases.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by disha »

The following article has to be read once

https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.ph ... 06&EXT=pdf

It is the same study one poster linked here that indicates how temperature and humidity play a role in reducing the transmission rate of WuhanVirus.
One degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative humidity lower R by 0.0383 and 0.0224, respectively. This result is consistent with the fact that the high temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of influenza.
Hopefully, in April, a 10*C jump in India from current 27*C in Mumbai/15* C in Delhi to 37*C in Mumbai/25*C in Delhi will result in a significant drop in R0 of WuhanVirus. They take Tokyo as example and point that at 28*C and 85% humidity, the R-value is <1 and is @48% drop from the estimated R-Value of @1.9

That is why, the Kerala numbers need to be looked at. In May, half of India will enter into a clay oven of 37*C+ temperatures. In some parts, the rusty buckets of state transportation will feel like autoclaves. State government must ban all large gatherings. Including marriages. This is going to be tough to enforce but doable.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by saip »

ThermoFisher? I worked for that company long ago and still hold some stock in it. Today I met a physician who lives in N CA and driving to LA for some teaching assignment and he decided against flying because of Covid19 and is driving some 600 miles. Coincidentally he is going to Corona (I kid you not).
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sudarshan »

disha wrote:The following article has to be read once
....
That is why, the Kerala numbers need to be looked at. In May, half of India will enter into a clay oven of 37*C+ temperatures. In some parts, the rusty buckets of state transportation will feel like autoclaves. State government must ban all large gatherings. Including marriages. This is going to be tough to enforce but doable.
I think Uttam said - don't trust ssrn. But in any case, maybe things will be fine in May, but what happens in September?

Suraj san, I'm looking at 1918 for a reason. The initial February epidemic was mild, by most accounts. Then when it returned in September, it had devastating effect. Is that going to happen again, probably, as temperatures come back down in the northern hemisphere, starting September.

Then in October 1918, the pandemic was at its height. By November, things were almost back to normal, at least in the USA!

How come? The hypothesis is that the unusual conditions of WW-I caused a reversal of what happens during flu. Usually, the more severely affected cases stay home, the ones who are mildly affected go out to work as usual. So the milder strains get passed around. But in 1918, the milder cases stayed put at the war front, while the severe cases got sent back to densely populated bases and cities, thus circulating the severe strains. Once those strains killed off people, the strains themselves died out.

The current pandemic, even if it is quelled for now, it is coming back in September (to the northern hemisphere), most likely. We hopefully don't have the crazy conditions of 1918, that's some comfort. Please do look at the historical context to get some clue on how to proceed.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by hanumadu »

We have to find a vaccine by november. Delhi's temperatures start falling below 90 F in november. Even for the rest of the world, they have time till October.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by hanumadu »

Melissa Chen
@MsMelChen
Life in Singapore (243 cases, 0 deaths) has pretty much returned to normal.

People are walking around, mostly without masks. Shops & restaurants are open.

Big events & school activities such as tournaments were canceled, but schools remained open unless there was a case.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Ambar »

Singapore's case is interesting. At one point they had the second highest infections in the world after China but zero fatalities and have pretty much contained the spread. Undoubtedly a tough no non-sense government, excellent healthcare system would have helped but it also makes me wonder if its the high humidity and temperature that is somewhat slowing down the spread of the virus.

On the other hand more and more cases in US are being reported of people who never came into contact/traveled to or from any of the effected areas . Is it possible that this strain of virus has always been around but has been more active this year than in the past ?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sooraj »

France reports 1,210 new cases of coronavirus and 21 new deaths, raising total to 6,633 cases and 148 dead.

Spain had 2,098 new cases and 50 new deaths. Total now at 9,942 cases and 342 dead.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Manish_P »

Well someone here had asked when the activists would get activated. Here we go..

Notice how the only actual doctor willing to be named in the article supports the measure!

Activists oppose govt move to stamp those in self-isolation
People suspected of contracting coronavirus and directed to self-isolate at home will get the back of their hand stamped to make sure they stay away from public places. It will say: “Home Quarantine; Proud to Protect Mumbaikars”.

This has raised the hackles of doctors and 'social activists' who are calling it “breach of privacy”. The state government, however, is defending the move in view of the incidents of suspect patients either trying to run away or clandestinely boarding flights. There have also been incidents of persons suspected of being infected going out to vegetable markets and grocery stores.

Reacting sharply on the move, health activist Vinod Chavan :?: said the identity of a patient or suspected patient has always been withheld. Even health issues are not discussed publicly. “In this case, stamping suspected patients goes against the basic rights of the citizens,” said Chavan, who works for Vikas Sahyog Pratisthan

Dr Vivek Korde said it’s as harmful as social boycott but necessary in the current situation. “We have been reading reports on how people have run away from quarantine. In that case, the government is helpless and needs to take such measures,” he said.

Sudhir Badami, an informed citizen :roll: termed it a silly measure. “We have not reached a stage where we need to take such a drastic steps and create panic among citizens,” said Badami, adding that though the government has been proactive this is a counter-productive idea.

A senior doctor who did not wish to be named said the measure is very vague and coercive. “We need a debate on privacy versus public good and coercion versus consent. A person being stamped has all the right to refuse it,” he said.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Manish_P »

Here in Mumbai, yesterday BMC has ordered all private offices to keep 50% of staff working from home.

Strangely they have given option in some cases to work 'alternately' ?

There is 6 months imprisonment and/or fine to owners who do not follow this directive (Under section 10 of the Epidemic Diseases Act, 1897)

Read more at:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/arti ... aign=cppst
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by SwamyG »

sudeepj wrote:
A second approach may be to rush the vaccine. I dont know why a vaccine is going to take 18-24 months. Once the safety of the vaccine is proven by animal/human trials, you can order a bunch of 20 year old soldiers to be first vaccinated and then infected with the viral strain. This should prove the vaccine one way or the other in a matter of months. I cant think of any other way out of this conundrum. Clearly, the virus is not going anywhere.


For the entire world, this is no longer just an epidemic, this is a national security issue and countries/societies must react as if we are now at war.
Vaccine development goes through rigorous processes; it takes about 6-8 years. Getting something out even in 2 years is doing things rapidly. Maybe some vaccines can be developed that way.

In USA, the only way this development processes can be bypassed is by Presidential intervention. It has not been done before, but this is extraordinary situation, maybe some corners can be cut. It is not an easy decision, and I am sure experts are thinking about all these things.

Image
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sooraj »

अर्ध-सन्यासी (Half Hermit) @bababanaras

#BigBreaking : Pakistan Army Chief, his wife and 19 other Pak Army generals found Corona positive.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sooraj »

Coronavirus update, U.S.

- 887 new cases in last 24 hours
- 4,661 cases in total
- 17 recovered
- 86 deaths
- 49 states reporting cases
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Dileep »

For a brief relief onlee
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sudeepj »

https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/malaysi ... ase-spike/
Malaysia’s leader announced on Monday a drastic two-week lockdown in the country to slow the spread of the new coronavirus following a sharp spike in the number of cases.

Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin said religious institutions, schools, businesses, and government offices will be shut from Wednesday until March 31. Only essential services including supermarkets, banks, gas stations, and pharmacies will be allowed to stay open.
Hot and humid Malaysia goes into lockdown. We should not expect the summer to bring relief from this virus.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Cain Marko »

Just wondering...IF this situation gets really out of hand, could it be possible that the executive branch in various countries starts getting emergency, draconian powers, which could then be used to say, create "great leaders"?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

This is the Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread . How hard is it for people to stick to topic and post information relevant to the topic, instead of wandering off in every direction from future gleat readers to deaths in British India vs princely states in 1918 ?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Cain Marko »

^come now Sir, are you afraid to face Chuck Norris? Noticed you didn't mention him.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Gyan »

nam wrote:
Gyan wrote:
My back of envelope calculation is giving a very frightening high death rate for Patients above 75+ years suffering from COVID in Italy. Can someone better equipped comment on it?
40% of the infected patients are above 70 years. That is close to 12K-13K, based on the current figure.
Assuming 40% infection rate in 70+ years old in Italy,
+ Death/Recovery rate of 50/50, gives a very distressing rate of death for 70+

Note:- I am not taking Death/Infected rate for obvious (mathematical) reasons.

Even in Korea, death/infected rate is 1%, but death/recovery rate is 10%.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by syam »

So I am going through internet pages about bio warfare and biodefence stuff. quoting biki page,
United States strategy
Data which potentially could assist in early detection of a bioterrorism event include many categories of information. Health-related data such as that from hospital computer systems, clinical laboratories, electronic health record systems, medical examiner record-keeping systems, 911 call center computers, and veterinary medical record systems could be of help; researchers are also considering the utility of data generated by ranching and feedlot operations, food processors, drinking water systems, school attendance recording, and physiologic monitors, among others.[9] Intuitively, one would expect systems which collect more than one type of data to be more useful than systems which collect only one type of information (such as single-purpose laboratory or 911 call-center based systems), and be less prone to false alarms, and this appears to be the case.
based on this, they seem to have many surveillance systems in place to handle every situation. how come they failed to have basic test kits for the civilians? quoting from same page,
In September 2018, President Trump and his administration unveiled a new comprehensive plan, the National Biodefense Strategy, for how the government will oversee bioterrorism defense. Currently, there are 15 federal departments and agencies and 16 branches of intelligence community that work against biological threats. The work of these groups often overlaps. So one of the goals of the National Biodefense Strategy to streamline the efforts of these agencies to prevent overlapping responsibilities.
I admit this corona virus might be regular virus, not related to bio-warfare. but the way some european countries struggling, they may need to employ military methods. Is this herd immunity thing really the thing us and uk are after? the supposed global leaders don't care about the globe.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sooraj »

Coronavirus: India bans entry of passengers from Afghanistan, Philippines, Malaysia with immediate effect.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sooraj »

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

sudeepj wrote:https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/malaysi ... ase-spike/
Malaysia’s leader announced on Monday a drastic two-week lockdown in the country to slow the spread of the new coronavirus following a sharp spike in the number of cases.

Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin said religious institutions, schools, businesses, and government offices will be shut from Wednesday until March 31. Only essential services including supermarkets, banks, gas stations, and pharmacies will be allowed to stay open.
Hot and humid Malaysia goes into lockdown. We should not expect the summer to bring relief from this virus.
Malaysia has a significant Chinese origin population and there is a lot of commerce between China and Malaysia. They're taking precautions. So far no one in Malaysia has died out of the 570 plus cases there. I would suspect many of these cases are due to travel from China.
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