Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 17 Mar 2020 11:41

Many 2nd tier cities in India celebrated Holi with gusto. I was expecting a significant increase in new infections, but that has not been the case. India is seeing about 10-15 increase each day.

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Taj Mahal, Ajanta Ellora Shut | India closed the Taj Mahal, its top tourist site, and the financial hub of Mumbai ordered offices providing non-essential services to function at 50% staffing levels as efforts to control the spread of coronavirus. Dozens of other protected monuments and museums across in the country including the Ajanta and Ellora caves and religious sites such as the Siddhivinayak temple in Mumbai, were also ordered closed.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 17 Mar 2020 11:47

One option in India to avoid COVID-19 is to migrate to rural areas to avoid international returnees. A few people in BLR I know have done so.

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 17 Mar 2020 11:49

There are various options being put forward by optimists saying summer will help and pessimists saying nothing will help and this will slowly spread everywhere . Frankly after seeing all the reports online, no one knows what happens next. The only option currently is limit people to people contact, manage the symptoms of infected. All the experts will simply move on to another report it their predictions fail and chest beat if their predictions succeed. Models and all.

syam · Post by **syam** » 17 Mar 2020 12:04

based on this paki express article,

India has conducted roughly 6,000 tests so far, lower than the US (8,000), Japan (9,600), France (12,000), the UK (13,000), and Italy (23,000). South Korea has conducted as many as 2 lakh, which experts see as the reason for their significantly declining numbers.

we are not doing test on large scale.

I don't know why these pressitutes wants large scale testing, when the testing is going on step by step process. if we don't report some 1000 cases by the end of this week, these guys brains will explode. why! why!

let's look at what happened so far,

* screened the people who came from outside.

* keeping an eye on the local cases registered in every hospitals. surely the sick people will report to local hospital. till then close the gates to country one by one. at state level, we already locking down public places.

* roll out test centers for every 3-5 districs. (they already did). ap got 3 main test centers.

* stock the medicine and test kits. put order for more of them.

they might be going for phase two after end of this week/month.

India is federal system. lol. these so called ambedkar 'devotees' should look more closely into his work. every two bit commie from mallu land ready to sh*t on the hard work put on by our doctors and medical staff. shame on every anti-national.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 17 Mar 2020 12:33

Union Minister Muraleedharan in self quarantine after visiting Kerala hospital Union Minister V Muraleedharan is in self quarantine after he attended a meeting in a medical institute in Trivandrum on March 14. A doctor there who returned from Spain, tested positive for COVID 19 on March 15.

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 17 Mar 2020 12:55

hanumadu wrote:We have to find a vaccine by november. Delhi's temperatures start falling below 90 F in november. Even for the rest of the world, they have time till October.

Relying on weather is not a strategy. The virus can continue to spread in the Southern Hemisphere while it is summer here, and then spread again when winter comes. And that is even assuming that the theories about warm weather halting the spread are even partially true (given that most of India is airconditioned, I am not sure it can be totally effective even if true).

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 17 Mar 2020 12:59

Paul wrote:One option in India to avoid COVID-19 is to migrate to rural areas to avoid international returnees. A few people in BLR I know have done so.

That does not make any sense. This is not the 60s, a lot of travelers from rural areas go abroad, and even among the recent cases a lot of the dangerous ones (travel to Italy, Haj etc) have been from rural areas.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 17 Mar 2020 13:01

Bart S wrote:
hanumadu wrote:We have to find a vaccine by november. Delhi's temperatures start falling below 90 F in november. Even for the rest of the world, they have time till October.
Relying on weather is not a strategy. The virus can continue to spread in the Southern Hemisphere while it is summer here, and then spread again when winter comes. And that is even assuming that the theories about warm weather halting the spread are even partially true (given that most of India is airconditioned, I am not sure it can be totally effective even if true).

I agree. A vaccine has to be developed, trialed and deployed quickly.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 17 Mar 2020 13:03

sooraj wrote:Union Minister Muraleedharan in self quarantine after visiting Kerala hospital Union Minister V Muraleedharan is in self quarantine after he attended a meeting in a medical institute in Trivandrum on March 14. A doctor there who returned from Spain, tested positive for COVID 19 on March 15.

How come the doctor did not know to self quarantine himself. Give me a break.

126 cases in India. Glad India is tightening entry from outside India. All land borders should be closed too.

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 17 Mar 2020 13:16

For people clamouring for vaccines, no vaccines have yet been made for SARS or mers, SARS was in 2003. The ones trialled on animals has been fatal. Hopes for vaccine development, testing and deployment are futile.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 17 Mar 2020 13:26

hanumadu wrote:
Bart S wrote:
Relying on weather is not a strategy. The virus can continue to spread in the Southern Hemisphere while it is summer here, and then spread again when winter comes. And that is even assuming that the theories about warm weather halting the spread are even partially true (given that most of India is airconditioned, I am not sure it can be totally effective even if true).
I agree. A vaccine has to be developed, trialed and deployed quickly.

First Person Injected With Trial Coronavirus Vaccine In Seattle

A new phase 1 clinical trial of a potential vaccine for the SARS-CoV2 coronavirus began on Monday in Seattle, as the first person to enroll in the trial received the vaccine.

The vaccine, mRNA-1273, was developed by biotechnology company Moderna in combination with researchers from the National Institutes of Health (NIH). The trial is being conducted at Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute in Seattle.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 17 Mar 2020 13:32

no yakety yak, no "rights" of passengers, no urban naxals doing their nut, just banned for life.

Good call jetblue.

more airlines should take such steps.

JetBlue passenger who flew while infected with coronavirus has been banned for life

A JetBlue passenger who flew from New York to Florida while awaiting test results for COVID-19 has been banned from flying with the airline for life.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 17 Mar 2020 13:33

Holi in India was on 10th. A lot of foreigners time their visit to India to play Holi. I hope sh*t is not going to hit the fan in the next 10 days.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 17 Mar 2020 14:07

^^ Holi this year was pretty subdued compared to other years.
A lot of us are pretty resilient to virus though some people are taking precautions to strata level.
The building next to mine is contemplating banning maids and courier carriers beyond main gate. My building RWA has bought many liters of sanitizers to clean lift and common area every few hours.
I see guys with handkerchief around their face to protect from COVID while girls with dupatta as they do in summers.

PS: This too shall pass

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 17 Mar 2020 14:36

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanr ... 8/fulltext
Nutshell-
-anti hypertensives in the group ACE I (lisinopril) & Angiotensin receptor antagonist (Losartan) predispose to severity of covid 19.
-NSAIDs (Ibuprofen) aggravate heart injury of covid19
-ACE receptors found in abundance in heart & lungs; are the ones exploited by the virus to gain entry in human body.
This receptor is over expressed in diabetes and hypertensives that is why these preconditions produce 'toxic heart' form of covid19.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 17 Mar 2020 14:59

IndraD wrote:https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanr ... 8/fulltext
Nutshell-
-anti hypertensives in the group ACE I (lisinopril) & Angiotensin receptor antagonist (Losartan) predispose to severity of covid 19.
-NSAIDs (Ibuprofen) aggravate heart injury of covid19
-ACE receptors found in abundance in heart & lungs; are the ones exploited by the virus to gain entry in human body.
This receptor is over expressed in diabetes and hypertensives that is why these preconditions produce 'toxic heart' form of covid19.

we should concentrate on India and closely watch the situation on the ground.

no hard core press reports or whatever yet

best to take individual precautions and be safe.

we should conserve stocks of test kits, masks and all other disposable/consumables associated with what we currently know about this wuhan virus and not indiscriminately export them to every tom dick and hick country that puts on a polite face and cons us into depleting our stocks to help them out.

Reports of panic buying in bangalore are already out in the press.

This situation is likely to get a lot worse before it gets better.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 17 Mar 2020 15:01

Indrad, does that mean people taking lisinopril drop taking it?

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 17 Mar 2020 15:08

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -escalates
Trump sparks anger by calling coronavirus the 'Chinese virus'
Chinese state media accuses US president of ‘passing the buck’ as Covid-19 hits campaign trail and Californians told to ‘shelter in place’
Lily Kuo in Shanghai,17 Mar 2020
The US president, Donald Trump, has referred to the global coronavirus outbreak as “the Chinese virus,” escalating a deepening US-China diplomatic spat over the disease. Trump, after giving an address on Monday warning of a possible recession, posted on Twitter: “The United States will be powerfully supporting those industries, like Airlines and others, that are particularly affected by the Chinese Virus. We will be stronger than ever before!”
The World Health Organization has advised against terms that link the virus to China or the city of Wuhan, where it was first detected, in order to avoid discrimination or stigmatisation. The comment comes as Beijing and Washington appeared to be locked in a game of shifting blame. Last week, outspoken official Zhao Lijian from China’s ministry of foreign affairs accused the US military of bringing the virus to Wuhan. The US summoned Chinese ambassador Cui Tiankai over the comment and issued a “stern” warning to Cui.
On Monday, the US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, also issued “strong US objections” in a phone call with top Chinese diplomat Yang Jiechi. According to Chinese state broadcaster CCTV, Yang also issued “strong objections” to attempts by the US to “slander and smear” China’s efforts in combatting the virus. Yang said such efforts would “not succeed” and that any harm to Chinese interests would invite retaliation.
.....
Gautam

Chinmay · Post by **Chinmay** » 17 Mar 2020 15:35

Covid-19 Is Traveling Along the New Silk Road

But a striking overlap exists between the path of today's viral spread and the path that emerged in the 1300s. These parallels tell us something crucial about the present state of geopolitics. Trade routes and infrastructure expand imperial influence; interruptions along them heighten awareness of our vulnerabilities. If we’re smart, we respond by creating sensible frictions to avoid being dominated by a single hegemon.

The 14th-century plague is said to have originated in China's Hubei Province, with bacteria contracted from marmots. Hebei Province bore the brunt of China’s plague fatalities, with 5 million of its residents perishing in the 1330s. Making its way westward via Silk Road merchants and caravans, the plague took several years to reach Persia, where it killed the Khan overlord Abu Said as well as half the population. In 1347, it entered Europe via Italy’s port of Genoa.

It is, perhaps no coincidence that, in the past two decades, China has been the origin of SARS, the swine flu, and now the Covid-19 coronavirus. Nor should we be surprised that Iran and Italy have emerged, once more, as waypoints for pandemic spread. What do Iran and Italy have in common today? They are two major anchors of China’s Belt and Road Initiative—also known as the 21st century’s new Silk Roads.

Quite an interesting article

nam · Post by **nam** » 17 Mar 2020 15:44

I believe most of the infections are happening through in-family. friends exposure. Once inside the body, it will take 14 days to die down. That means the entire family is a risk for 14 days, with zero chance of them staying indoors.. thinking it is "fine becoz it is hot".

Not to mention the fact that... we still have large families under single roof..

So heat and humidity may prevent first infection in a family, however you may not see reduction is overall infection. The curve may flatten a bit, but there will be everyday growth.

The good place to start looking for the growth rate is the regular flu. We need to compare the annual

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 17 Mar 2020 15:49

g.sarkar wrote: The US president, Donald Trump, has referred to the global coronavirus outbreak as “the Chinese virus,” escalating a deepening US-China diplomatic spat over the disease.

Is there more to Trump's tweet than a mere covfefe ? I believe choice of words is always carefully measured for impact by someone in his position, irrespective of what MSM thinks about them. Is Tatya* smarter than what a section of american society credits him for? Will China be made accountable? Will the world extract their pound of flesh from China in due course, or even immediately?

*तात्या, as he is fondly known in the Marathi meme-world.

sampat · Post by **sampat** » 17 Mar 2020 16:08

The Council on Hypertension strongly recommend that physicians and patients should continue treatment with their usual anti-hypertensive therapy because there is no clinical or scientific evidence to suggest that treatment with ACEi or ARBs should be discontinued because of the Covid-19 infection.

About ibuprofen...doctors in Europe don't recommend ibuprofen, they says it's harmful. Panadol (paracetamol) should be used instead..

https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1238816018656526336?s=08

syam · Post by **syam** » 17 Mar 2020 17:30

Accredited private labs to be allowed to test for Covid-19

NEW DELHI: In keeping with the demand for more testing, the Centre has decided to allow accredited private labs to test for Covid-19. Dr Balram Bhargava, director general of Indian Council of Medical Research – the country’s apex body for health research – confirmed this to TOI on Monday.

There are 50 to 60 private labs, accredited by the National Accreditation Board for Laboratories, that can do the test, Bhargava said.

At present, only government labs are permitted to do the test. Though their capacity is around 5,000 samples per day, only 60 to 70 samples are being processed daily. This is because current guidelines allow testing only for symptomatic individuals with travel history to affected countries or those in direct contact with an infected individual.

syam · Post by **syam** » 17 Mar 2020 17:47

Ok so according to reports, we are doing 10k tests per day. Planning to scale it up in future depending on the symptoms. Earlier hit job by paki express is nothing but lie. It is coming at top news in msn news feed.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 17 Mar 2020 17:52

Spain reports 1,236 new cases of coronavirus and 149 new deaths in morning update, raising total to 11,178 cases and 491 dead.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 17 Mar 2020 17:59

https://twitter.com/lymanstoneky/status ... 2873460736

Lyman Expand the House Stone, AKA 石來民
@lymanstoneky
Research shows that warmer weather DOES reduce the spread of COVID.

This is excellent news!
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=3551767

Lyman Expand the House Stone, AKA
@lymanstoneky

To the people being like "but florida," *reduces* does not mean *eliminates*

Lyman Expand the House Stone, AKA
@lymanstoneky

Also note that while weather *might* cause COVID to have an R0<1 for *some* areas, this paper also clearly shows that weather alone won't do the trick.

Lyman Expand the House Stone, AKA
@lymanstoneky

Have seen a number of people respond that WHO rejects the heat-and-sunlight theory. This perplexes me.
There's abundant research showing that heat-and-light help inactivate viruses. Just one example, which includes coronaviruses:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articl ... po=45.8333

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 17 Mar 2020 18:01

Coronavirus Pandemic Update 37: The ACE-2 Receptor - The Doorway to COVID-19 (ACE Inhibitors & ARBs)

syam · Post by **syam** » 17 Mar 2020 18:09

ANI
@ANI
·
58m
Dr Balram Bhargava, director-general of Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR): We already know that we are in stage 2. We are in not in stage 3, clearly. #coronavirus

Currently the laboratory expansion of ICMR is engaged, we are expanding our number of laboratories and as we speak, today we have 72 functional laboratories in ICMR system. #coronavirus

We have also engaged non-ICMR, Ministry of Health, govt laboratories include CSIR, DRDO, DBT, govt medical colleges, we have 49 of those labs which will start testing by the end of this week. #coronavirus

ICMR is also engaging with high-quality private laboratories, that include NABL accredited laboratories, to understand the modalities to increase access to the tests while ensuring appropriate safeguards. #COVID19

We're also operationlising through 2 High-throughput systems which are the rapid testing laboratories. They will be operationalised in 2 locations & they can test upto 1400 samples per day in those labs. We're operationlising them by the end of this week

We have already placed orders for 1 million probes, reagents and primers are unlimited. We have also requested WHO to provide us 1 million probes. #Coronavirus

here are 4 stages. 3rd stage is community transmission which we hope we shouldn't have. It would depend on how strongly we close our int'l borders, in terms of which govt has taken very proactive steps.But can't say that community transmission won't happen

syam · Post by **syam** » 17 Mar 2020 18:18

So apparantly some private firms trying to cash in the panic and do testing at large scale for some price. The real source of low testing hitjob. Wow! India developing. Even I didn't see it coming. Shame on these vultures.

nam · Post by **nam** » 17 Mar 2020 18:23

We should test some of the specific areas in the country, which has reported more infection, like Maharashtra. Whoever is carrying the infection will more most probably be infecting the local area. Ofcourse, do the contact tracing as well.

Once this thing crosses 1k infection, it explodes exponentially, as seen in Italy, France, & Spain.

nam · Post by **nam** » 17 Mar 2020 18:26

syam wrote:So apparantly some private firms trying to cash in the panic and do testing at large scale for some price. The real source of low testing hitjob. Wow! India developing. Even I didn't see it coming. Shame on these vultures.

Simple solution for this. Every one who claim to do the testing, should be declared by GoI to be doing it for free and then claim the refund from GoI.

Add in the adhar details as well.

It will stop such plans in track.

syam · Post by **syam** » 17 Mar 2020 18:36

72+49 GoI test centers will be active by the end of this week. The private labs also join the testing later. We already placed 1 million probes order. And another 1 million requested from WHO(I don't think they will provide).
Also those 2 high throughput systems will be available in two locations. They will try for more such systems in coming days.

I think we can easily handle upto 10 million cases on war footing. which is enough to see through the first round of corona.

Primus · Post by **Primus** » 17 Mar 2020 18:50

There is one cause for concern still. Listening to some podcasts by people who are better informed than I am. Apparently the tests being done so far have a lower than desirable sensitivity, i.e. there will be a lot of false negatives (which is worse than having false positives in this context). This is not because the PCR is unreliable, but because the sample site (naso-pharynx or oro-pharynx) may not have enough of the virus present at the time of testing. In an asymptomatic patient for example, it is not yet clear where the virus is concentrated the most. Thus patients who test negative may have a false sense of confidence.

As with all such infections, the most prudent thing to do would be to avoid getting infected which brings us back to the 'social distance' idea.

As healthcare workers, we are in the front line of the battle with this disease (along with other first responders), we are also unfortunately the unwitting vehicles for transmission. In our office we have started canceling all routine visits, limiting patient access to emergencies only. The local hospitals have canceled all non-urgent surgeries and outpatient (ambulatory) procedures. Everyone is going to take a big hit to their pocket-books, not just the travel and entertainment/hotel/restaurant industry.

The next few weeks will be critical.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 17 Mar 2020 19:00

Primus wrote:There is one cause for concern still. Listening to some podcasts by people who are better informed than I am. Apparently the tests being done so far have a lower than desirable sensitivity, i.e. there will be a lot of false negatives (which is worse than having false positives in this context). This is not because the PCR is unreliable, but because the sample site (naso-pharynx or oro-pharynx) may not have enough of the virus present at the time of testing. In an asymptomatic patient for example, it is not yet clear where the virus is concentrated the most. Thus patients who test negative may have a false sense of confidence.

As with all such infections, the most prudent thing to do would be to avoid getting infected which brings us back to the 'social distance' idea.

The next few weeks will be critical.

is this in India or US?

nam · Post by **nam** » 17 Mar 2020 19:02

Reports of 254 cases of Indian citizens in Iran!

Rahulsidhu · Post by **Rahulsidhu** » 17 Mar 2020 19:07

This news story claims that Seegene's testing kit has a sensitivity rate of 95%. Moreover, the test supposedly costs only $20 and is being mass produced.
It is being certified in the US as well.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... s-outbreak

Mass testing is our best bet in case community transmission starts. Mass testing may sound expensive but will be massively cheaper than the pre-emptive mass shutdowns which the govt. is doing. Both politically and financially.

Maybe ICMR needs to look beyond their existing testing processes.

syam · Post by **syam** » 17 Mar 2020 19:11

nam wrote: Simple solution for this. Every one who claim to do the testing, should be declared by GoI to be doing it for free and then claim the refund from GoI.

Add in the adhar details as well.

It will stop such plans in track.

It seems few more parties involved in the shaming. Self hating mallus are prime suspect. another is hippie 'modern' younger generation who think they are american citizens just because they watch netflix. they are always ready to put india in its place. and then the vested interests lead by britshits.

Primus · Post by **Primus** » 17 Mar 2020 19:35

vijayk wrote:
Primus wrote:There is one cause for concern still. Listening to some podcasts by people who are better informed than I am. Apparently the tests being done so far have a lower than desirable sensitivity, i.e. there will be a lot of false negatives (which is worse than having false positives in this context). This is not because the PCR is unreliable, but because the sample site (naso-pharynx or oro-pharynx) may not have enough of the virus present at the time of testing. In an asymptomatic patient for example, it is not yet clear where the virus is concentrated the most. Thus patients who test negative may have a false sense of confidence.

As with all such infections, the most prudent thing to do would be to avoid getting infected which brings us back to the 'social distance' idea.

The next few weeks will be critical.
is this in India or US?

I don't think it matters where it is done since the technique is the same (rRT-PCR) in most places - this looks for the viral particles in the nasal/oral passages. There is another test that is based on an IgM or IgG antibody that is done on the blood, it is said to be rapid but the problem with antibody testing (at least with other viruses) is that it takes a while for the body to make the antibodies).

The issue is not whether the test itself is at fault or somehow inadequate, the problem is there may not be enough material, i.e. virus particles in the sample tested for the test to be positive. I don't know what the true capability of these tests is, i.e. if it is capable of finding even one virus in the sample or it needs a minimum density. We all know that many diseases need enough of a sample size for the test to be positive even when the patient is highly likely to have the disease - every ICU person remembers the days of needing BAL or tracheal secretions to prove PCP in the early HIV days.

From CDC:

A false negative result may occur if inadequate numbers of organisms are present in the specimen due to improper collection, transport or handling.
RNA viruses in particular show substantial genetic variability. Although efforts were made to design rRT-PCR assays to conserved regions of the viral genomes, variability resulting in mis-matches between the primers and probes and the target sequences can result in diminished assay performance and possible false negative results.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 17 Mar 2020 19:48

Gerard"Coronavirus Pandemic Update 37: The ACE-2 Receptor - The Doorway to COVID-19 (ACE Inhibitors & ARBs)

just like anything else in medicine , there is a lot of confusion on the issue and no clear cut guidance.
If virus is using ACE Receptors it would be worth not up regulating them !!
But then better outcome cos once virus in in vasodilator effect of ACE I is protective.
Can't we vasodilate using other drugs?

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 17 Mar 2020 19:51

g.sarkar wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -escalates
Trump sparks anger by calling coronavirus the 'Chinese virus'
Chinese state media accuses US president of ‘passing the buck’ as Covid-19 hits campaign trail and Californians told to ‘shelter in place’
Lily Kuo in Shanghai,17 Mar 2020
The US president, Donald Trump, has referred to the global coronavirus outbreak as “the Chinese virus,” escalating a deepening US-China diplomatic spat over the disease. Trump, after giving an address on Monday warning of a possible recession, posted on Twitter: “The United States will be powerfully supporting those industries, like Airlines and others, that are particularly affected by the Chinese Virus. We will be stronger than ever before!”
The World Health Organization has advised against terms that link the virus to China or the city of Wuhan, where it was first detected, in order to avoid discrimination or stigmatisation. The comment comes as Beijing and Washington appeared to be locked in a game of shifting blame. Last week, outspoken official Zhao Lijian from China’s ministry of foreign affairs accused the US military of bringing the virus to Wuhan. The US summoned Chinese ambassador Cui Tiankai over the comment and issued a “stern” warning to Cui.
On Monday, the US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, also issued “strong US objections” in a phone call with top Chinese diplomat Yang Jiechi. According to Chinese state broadcaster CCTV, Yang also issued “strong objections” to attempts by the US to “slander and smear” China’s efforts in combatting the virus. Yang said such efforts would “not succeed” and that any harm to Chinese interests would invite retaliation.
.....
Gautam

The Chinese need to display contrition, atone for their maladaptive cultural practices and make reparations. That would be the civilised.