Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 27 Mar 2020 02:21

nam wrote:
Suraj wrote: Ever try to memorize a shopping list ? Specific medical / care instructions are not something humans remember exactly at a time of crisis. They will encounter the 'what exactly did Modi say' mental block, or malicious folks may misuse such a message claiming someone died because of supposed PMO level quackery.

What best helps people when it comes to precise and succinct instructions is something in a form where they can quickly read it. Therefore, this information needs to be widely disseminated on SM as FB or WA forwards as a succinct message in several languages.

Anyone up to create and start seeding such messages as simple images ?
It is always useful, when a person of authority spreads the message. It does not need to be complex. All the PM has to say is, if you have high fever, dry cough, please stay at home, away from your family. Next call the helpline, who can then guide the person. There will not be anything controversial in it.

This message can be then be spread through by well known faces.

This cuts out the clutter that we are seeing on whatsapp forwards, which is not easy for our people to understand.

People in India don't seem to realize how older people are at very high risk. In Europe, for example, there is constant messaging on the need to keep older people safe. This message is not spreading enough.

I don't think that it is appropriate for the PM to have to spell out every little detail, he should only talk high level strategy and emotional appeals etc.

One way to address this is to have a Trump press conference style broadcast where health minister or some other doctor with good communication skills joins Modi and communicates this clearly.

I think there is some merit to having somebody verbally state it, as a lot of elderly people might not read social media. Even on the GOI's offical Telegram channel, one good thing that I see is that they have been sending out short 1-2 min snippets of Modi and other speaking with key messages.

chola · Post by **chola** » 27 Mar 2020 02:35

Well, Amreekis are hell bent on catching and dethroning the chinis for the Corona crown. Already passed Italy. Should overtake Cheen by tomorrow.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/fl ... t-n1168686

As Florida coronavirus cases surge, spring breakers express regret

Spring breakers are now expressing regret they went, but some say the government wasn't clear enough in its message to practice social distancing.

March 25, 2020, 5:03 PM EDT
By Ben Kesslen

The clip went viral. "If I get corona, I get corona. At the end of the day, I'm not gonna let it stop me from partying," Brady Sluder, a spring breaker in Miami, said last week.

Now, as the United States is at about 55,000 cases of the coronavirus, including more than 780 deaths, and is on track to become the new center of the pandemic, he has revised his message: "Don't be arrogant and think you're invincible like myself."

On Monday, Sluder posted a lengthy apology on his Instagram, first reported by The Cincinnati Enquirer, in which he said he "wasn't aware of the severity of my actions."

Of course, Sluder, 22, of Milford, Ohio, has elderly people in his life whom he "adores." He didn't want to put anyone at risk. Now, he understands how serious the virus is and is encouraging people to follow the guidelines on how to stay safe and reduce risk. Most of all, he's sorry.

Sluder's apology comes as more and more people are focusing their attention on how young people are responding to the virus, with the term "COVIDIOT" being used to describe some actions, especially since the news broke that at least six University of Tampa students tested positive after returning from spring break.

I have never been so proud of India as I am now for how it has handled this Chinese virus crisis.

And I have never been so saddened, disappointed and shocked at how things could go so completely off-rail here in the USA in just a few weeks time.

If people in India just follow GOI's lead, they will be in good shape. Nothing is won yet of course but I could see that the organization and goals are planned and measured in Bharat. There is a clear path in India.

Over here, the road is looking treacherous, an increasingly slippery slope into a raging river promising torrents of pain and suffering.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 27 Mar 2020 02:53

chola wrote:Well, Amreekis are hell bent on catching and dethroning the chinis for the Corona crown. Already passed Italy. Should overtake Cheen by tomorrow.

The Spectator Index
@spectatorindex
·
5m
JUST IN: US now has 82,000 coronavirus cases, most of any country

BSR Murthy · Post by **BSR Murthy** » 27 Mar 2020 02:56

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 27 Mar 2020 03:04

nam wrote:It is always useful, when a person of authority spreads the message.

Bart_S has already made the valid point that a whatsapp or other message from a public source is more authoritative. It's also equally valid that instructions must be widely available in written form. Maybe old people don't do SM, but those around them do - it needs to be widely enough disseminated that - like herd immunity - it becomes herd awareness.

It's not the job of the PM to offer specific medical advice, and specifically, details of medical advice are best broadcast in written form in multiple languages.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 27 Mar 2020 03:08

^^ Poster "BSR Murthy": I would be interested in the same plot on a linear x-y scale, not the log scale you have used.

I am a little more optimistic than some here. It seems like most of the countries with larger numbers of cases (say > 10,000) - including the US - are now in the linear increase stage of what will hopefully be a sigmoidal curve like China's. It doesn't look like exponential/power law increase.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 27 Mar 2020 03:20

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/26/82204928 ... guidelines

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 27 Mar 2020 03:27

The US is at 4% fatality and ICU combined. But most of this is coming from NY which needs to closed off by US army so that those people can’t drive away and afflict more elsewhere.

SriKumar · Post by **SriKumar** » 27 Mar 2020 03:38

chola wrote:Well, Amreekis are hell bent on catching and dethroning the chinis for the Corona crown. Already passed Italy. Should overtake Cheen by tomorrow.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/fl ... t-n1168686

The writing on the wall pretty clearly was there even 4 days ago when US was adding about 8000 or so cases a day. US will end up well north of 100,000 cases in a couple of days frankly. The key (as far as I am concerned) is the progress of states WA, CA and NY. WA and CA seem to have stabilized somewhat. NY is is yet to hit that plateau where the new cases start to level off. Once cases in these places start dropping the methods/tactics/hospital response etc can be replicated at other places.

One reason we are seeing this high jump is because last week (last 2 weeks) there were so many citizens, middle-aged and young people (especially young people, college age or older) who were so blase about this whole thing. Now, with LA (Baton Rouge) and Florida on the map, and looking ominous, it has forced all to take a look at ther recklessness. The bulge of cases from the spring break nonsense will contribute to the peak in about 10 days. Maybe things get better after that. The only 'good news'/silver lining here is that this 'crossing' the China count, has gotten the attention of all in the nation- finally.

My focus is entirely on how the hospital system and other medical infracture responds in Seatttle, Bay area and NY city. Once these centers manage to stabilize, things will be getting better.

General question:
Do the numbers for 'New cases' data for 'Today' column in the worldometer data change once or twice a day? The website says it updates once at day at GMT. I am not sure but they seem to update twice a day for 'Today' column. In the morning they are low, but they seem to pick up later on (not 100% sure). I am going purely by these numbers for US and statewise data. Wish they had a column for the previous-to-previous day data as well.

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 27 Mar 2020 03:40

KL Dubey wrote:^^ Poster "BSR Murthy": I would be interested in the same plot on a linear x-y scale, not the log scale you have used.

I am a little more optimistic than some here. It seems like most of the countries with larger numbers of cases (say > 10,000) - including the US - are now in the linear increase stage of what will hopefully be a sigmoidal curve like China's. It doesn't look like exponential/power law increase.

Italy seems to have entered the linear stage (as of 4 days ago), keeping fingers crossed. The USA has left the 33% stage behind and is now in the 10% to 20% stage (this is my own terminology). That means, from having 33% day-on-day increase in cumulative case count, it is now about 20%. But the more important metric, I feel, is the ratio of day's increase to previous day's increase. This has to fall below 1 for the surge to peter out. Italy seems tantalizingly close to 1 (which is basically the linear stage). US is around 1.1 to 1.2. Spain and UK are taking over from Italy though.

US seems a couple of days away from linear. I think parts of the US are now sub-linear, but NY and FL will keep the increase going for a bit.

EDIT: Yeah I know, this sounds like Olympics medals tally commentary, what to do onlee

.

saip · Post by **saip** » 27 Mar 2020 03:51

From http://covidindiaupdates.in/ I noticed Pakistan and India crossed the 100 case mark on 3/17. Today Pakistan has 1200 and India 700 a significant difference. At this rate I expect India will hit 1000 on 3/28 and Pakistan will be at 1500. Again from the data on that website we seem to be doubling between 3 and 4 days. Hoping the period will get longer. US is doubling at 2 day rate and not slowing down.

Interactive Graph

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 27 Mar 2020 03:51

There are many confounding variables including availability of testing, guidelines for whom to test, affordability etc. Since tests have now been made free in the US, a spike in numbers is inevitable.

It is much better to look at the obituary pages. And look at excess deaths. This is a trivial concept but does require common sense.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 27 Mar 2020 04:01

chola wrote: I have never been so proud of India as I am now for how it has handled this Chinese virus crisis.

And I have never been so saddened, disappointed and shocked at how things could go so completely off-rail here in the USA in just a few weeks time.

+100. Right from the beginning the measures taken by the central government and later state governments with very few exceptions like WB everyone has done an incredible job ! From Air India, IAF, Airport authority staff, local health departments and especially the much denigrated police personnel have done an unbelievably impressive job despite the limitations and conditions they work in. If only the states and central could get along and work together on other public priorities then there's nothing that can stop the new India.

In US, there cannot be a more vulnerable state than FL given its percentage of elderly population, yet it is running below the national average. Its really hard to deduct a firm pattern in the spread and intensity of this virus except that looking at the subcontinent and middle-east outside of Iran, the infection rate seems to be slow compared to temperate climate countries. Just for reference the current temperature in Barcelona is 4 C and in Milan its 6 C. Last week the night temperature in most cities in Italy and Spain were <4 C.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 27 Mar 2020 04:04

Prognosis of the virus and markets by Paul Tudor Jones, Veteran Investor/Philanthropist

"What a damn mess," says Paul Tudor Jones to lead off his interview as he appears on CNBC.

The most challenging period lies ahead, says Jones. He expects U.S. cases to peak at about 300K-400K between April 4 and April 10. From there, Jones notes that in the Chinese hotspot of Hubai, cases fell from the peak to less than 100 in 24 days.

A worst-case scenario in the U.S., says Jones, is 1M cases and a mortality rate of 4% - that means 40K deaths, or roughly the same as flu season.

Of the Fed: They've done in two weeks what it took 8 months to accomplish during the financial crisis.

Turning to stocks, Jones believes another test of the lows may be in order, but they'll be higher in three to five months. He is somewhat nervous about all the debt the U.S. is taking on.

And at least until a vaccine is developed he also expects:

Billionaire Paul Tudor Jones said workers in the U.S. should start thinking about resuming a different kind of life after the worst of Covid-19 -- one with widespread testing and periodic self-isolation.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 27 Mar 2020 04:24

https://www.rediff.com/news/special/mil ... 200326.htm
Military takes lead in India's war against coronavirus
By Ajai Shukla March 26, 2020.
The military is mobilising to play a central role in holding patients exposed to the coronavirus, reports Ajai Shukla.
On Wednesday, March 25, the first day of the 21-day countrywide lockdown that Prime Minister Narendra Damodardas Modi announced on Tuesday to contain the coronavirus pandemic, a military facility in Jodhpur received 277 Indian evacuees flown in from Iran and placed them in quarantine for the next 14 days.
The military has already housed over 1,200 patients so far in temporary medical facilities at Manesar, Hindon, Jaisalmer and Jodhpur. These included evacuees from Wuhan and Japan, who were discharged after observing full quarantine protocol.
'Of the over 1,200 evacuees, medical staff and air crew kept in these facilities till now, only one case of positive covid-19 has been reported so for. This does not include another case reported from the Indian Air Force facility in Hindon,' stated the ministry of defence on Wednesday.
'In addition to the above, more army medical facilities at Jhansi, Binnaguri and Gaya are kept at standby with an additional collective capacity of 1,600,' said the MoD.
The military is mobilising to play a central role in holding patients exposed to the virus. Most countries seriously impacted by the virus, including China, Italy and the United States, have pressed their militaries into service.
......
Gautam

saip · Post by **saip** » 27 Mar 2020 04:46

Pakistan is exporting new stuff to their Iron Brother China.

Karma is a Bi...ch

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 27 Mar 2020 05:00

saip wrote:Pakistan is exporting new stuff to their Iron Brother China.
Karma is a Bi...ch

There is no export-import between brothers, only love is exchanged.
Gautam

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 27 Mar 2020 05:08

Looks like ammunition is getting scarce in the US. Public is buying lots of it.

https://www.kansascity.com/latest-news/ ... 17731.html

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 27 Mar 2020 06:29

US aircraft carrier taken offline by coronavirus

11:47 AM: USS Theodore Roosevelt has been ordered into port in Guam after more cases of COVID‑19 were found aboard, Acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly told reporters Thursday morning.

NORAD, Cheyenne Mountain button up against coronavirus

01:51 PM: Military teams that monitor foreign missile and warplane threats to the United States are isolated at a number of military sites, including Cheyenne Mountain, the Cold War-era bunker in Colorado Springs, Colorado, the head of U.S. Northern Command, said Tuesday.

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2020 ... ty/163666/

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 27 Mar 2020 06:36

Karan M wrote:
dr.uday wrote:Today some of my colleagues reported an increase in respiratory cases with fever and dry cough in some places. Almost all of them have mild symptoms. Should see if they are just panic cases or corona.. some of these were tested and results might take 2 days.
My advice is, do not go to hospital if u have mild symptoms. You might get infected at hospital if u didnt get it earlier.They are not going to test u anway, unless u have contact with traveller or u r really sick. Take just paracetamol and Keep away from old or people with chronic diseases. As soon as u develop breathlessness visit the hopital. This is the ICMR protocol right now. I will post here if there is any change in it.
Is there a way I can share any pdf document on this forum and how to share an image?
Panic is definitely a factor, your advice is spot on.

Regarding the document, please upload on google drive or some filesharing website like mediafire and link it.

Has any treatment protocol been released yet from GOI? X medicine etc?

This advice is something or similar to what is needed perhaps. Concise and to the point.

Western countries have given up containment and embraced herd immunity concept. Sacrificing the old to save economy. This means that 2nd/3rd wave infections are inevitable. This'll go on all through 2020; Indian monsoon will bring relief but will probably pickup soon.

And this too by nvishal.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 27 Mar 2020 08:04

Suraj wrote: Ever try to memorize a shopping list ? Specific medical / care instructions are not something humans remember exactly at a time of crisis. They will encounter the 'what exactly did Modi say' mental block, or malicious folks may misuse such a message claiming someone died because of supposed PMO level quackery.

What best helps people when it comes to precise and succinct instructions is something in a form where they can quickly read it. Therefore, this information needs to be widely disseminated on SM as FB or WA forwards as a succinct message in several languages.

Anyone up to create and start seeding such messages as simple images ?

Can we start with a sticky post on the forum with links to the official site, helpline numbers, etc.? Or update the first post of this thread with it - I can create a sticky thread, but this is already a resource thread, so no point replicating stuff. Editing posts can be done only by mods - let me know, I'll share some content to sticky. If there are good graphic designers, they could come up with some visual content as well.

This is the official site maintained by NIE Chennai, and has resources as well as data:

http://covidindiaupdates.in/index.php

About Us

Maintained by

COVID-19 India Resource Center
ICMR National Institute of Epidemiology , Chennai
For feedback - Call - +91 94439 03060

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 27 Mar 2020 08:20

Yes we can create a sticky post when we have enough material to collate.

shaun · Post by **shaun** » 27 Mar 2020 09:02

Curious case

Bangladesh has so far reported 39 Covid-19 positive cases, of who five have died. Nine have recovered and 25 are still undergoing treatment.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 27 Mar 2020 09:26

One thing Modiji should do is to use army to build permanent hospitals with 1000+ beds in several states starting with states that are deeply affected.

Lets use the crisis to revamp our healthcare. Can someone here in India make this suggestion to crowd source site on coronavirus?

Arj · Post by **Arj** » 27 Mar 2020 09:31

Train berth ms to go converted into isolation wards. Up to 10K.

https://www.financialexpress.com/infras ... ssion=true

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 27 Mar 2020 09:35

The only way to have drastically curtailed the spread of this virus was to have quarantined China. But how do you quarantine China when every single Walmart or Home Depot or Bestbuy have 99% of the products on their shelves Made in China. Probably anywhere from 70%-100% of all global manufacturing capacity in various industries other than auto manufacturing and arms is now located in China. If there is one lesson in this, it is that buyer's have to diversify away from China. People talk endlessly about this being India's opportunity. Getting the blue chip brands to open shop in India will be a hard sell and a hit and miss affair,but what about manufacturing the tens of thousands of products available in Walmart, Home Depot and Bestbuy? That establishes the country's credentials to mass manufacture on a global scale and deliver at a competitive price. Plus India must manufacture the full range of hospital equipment from general wards to ICUs to a full integration of the pharma chain including APIs.

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 27 Mar 2020 10:16

I dont have a twitter account but can someone please request khatvanga to put number of daily deaths, IMO the number of deaths is a better indication as US numbers are showing spikes with backlog test reports coming in.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 27 Mar 2020 10:37

There have been only 30 new cases since last night in India and 22 recoveries and 1 death.

nvishal · Post by **nvishal** » 27 Mar 2020 10:44

Situation in Pakistan went out of control a few days ago. Imran khans govt realised it and came to the conclusion that implementing a lockdown wasnt going to change it. He has given up trying to contain the epidemic and instead focusing on saving the economy. Off course, there cannot be an "economy" without "safety" and vice versa, something basic which imran khans govt cannot comprehend.

The Pakistani military has gone in shock and are trying to impose a lockdown without an endgame.

Sid · Post by **Sid** » 27 Mar 2020 11:00

hanumadu wrote:There have been only 30 new cases since last night in India and 22 recoveries and 1 death.

30 found, but without proactively testing whole communities in known clusters real numbers may not be known.

Given situation in NYC, and known incubation period, there may be multiple super spreaders.

I really wish well for my people, and just hope everyone to hang on during these testing times.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 27 Mar 2020 11:05

Sid wrote:
hanumadu wrote:There have been only 30 new cases since last night in India and 22 recoveries and 1 death.
30 found, but without proactively testing whole communities in known clusters real numbers may not be known.

Can we please give this "no proactive testing" thing to rest? It has been clarified by people-in-the-know multiple times on this thread itself why that strategy would not work for us, and testing everyone is not the only way to go about handling this. It's getting tiring to hear about "not enough testing" every page or two.

Adrija · Post by **Adrija** » 27 Mar 2020 11:14

+100 to that........ it's almost as if we are ourselves wishing for doomsday. Its started to get a bit irritating

let's just continue to pray to our Gods and ancestors, and wish our best to Modiji, for winning this war- and cooperating in the lockdown!

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 27 Mar 2020 11:21

Billings doctor finds inventive way to help with shortage of medical masks

They take about two hours to print on a 3D printer and cost only a dollar to produce. Because they are made of plastic, the mask can be wiped down and sanitized so it is able to be used over and over again.

srin · Post by **srin** » 27 Mar 2020 11:22

What exactly does "test more" mean, anyway ? Pick a few random people off the street and draw blood ?

I understand that there are asymptomatic carriers, but they either manifest the symptoms in say 14 days or beat the infection. Given the lockdown, they aren't likely to spread it too much either. And if they manifest symptoms, we're anyway testing them and their families.

Could we have done more testing ? Well, random testing of international travellers at the airports - in late Feb or early March - would have helped. And then, random testing of families of those travellers would have helped. And right now, random testing of doctors & nurses could help.

But otherwise, I'm struggling to see the point.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 27 Mar 2020 11:37

[img]4[/img]Testing in India is not effective. The prevalence is low. 2% positive of those deemed at risk and warranting testing. The management would be the same. Isolation or hospitilsation. The lockdown strategy is the most appropriate. Other than building herd immunity whilst sequestering vulnerable people. There will likely be need for regional lockdowns for some months.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 27 Mar 2020 11:39

srin wrote:What exactly does "test more" mean, anyway ? Pick a few random people off the street and draw blood ?

I understand that there are asymptomatic carriers, but they either manifest the symptoms in say 14 days or beat the infection. Given the lockdown, they aren't likely to spread it too much either. And if they manifest symptoms, we're anyway testing them and their families.

Could we have done more testing ? Well, random testing of international travellers at the airports - in late Feb or early March - would have helped. And then, random testing of families of those travellers would have helped. And right now, random testing of doctors & nurses could help.

But otherwise, I'm struggling to see the point.

There can be a middle ground between testing only symptomatic people who have a known history of travel or contact with an infected person and randomly testing aam abduls on the street. For example, the moment any case is confirmed, you test anyone they have come in contact with recently, people from their housing colony, work etc. instead of just screening them for symptoms and asking them to self quarantine. This can prevent them from spreading the infection before they are symptomatic. Just IMHO etc.

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 27 Mar 2020 11:40

Random testing of people drawn from the street would give us an estimate of total infected in the country, and possibly with statewise/districtwise breakup. These samples will have to be large to be meaningful because honestly positive cases are currently a minuscule number.

And if we repeat the tests we have a good trendline of what the expected infection rate is; which can help the district administration plan for contingencies; and at a later stage even to relax some of the curfew restrictions so that some industries such as food processing, cleaning products and their inputs can resume so that these better off districts can bootstrap the rest of the country into normalcy.

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 27 Mar 2020 11:45

BTW the most useful people, the supermen and superwomen of these episode are the healthy recovered cases. They probably have the antibodies in place to fight this off, permanently. There must be some way to use these people in the frontline of the war against Wuhanvirus. We should learn from others experience in this regard.

Any fully recovered case below 35 years of age should be offered lifetime govt employment in lieu for their time for the next 1 year on the frontlines. It is the best investment we can make.

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 27 Mar 2020 11:45

With the random testing approach, how would you know if the person was infected before and is now cured? After so many days of infection in the country, such people will be of large numbers more than the asymptomatic carriers. That's why india is going with antibody test approach from next week. Very intelligent move than what we think here.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 27 Mar 2020 11:51

yensoy wrote:BTW the most useful people, the supermen and superwomen of these episode are the healthy recovered cases. They probably have the antibodies in place to fight this off, permanently. There must be some way to use these people in the frontline of the war against Wuhanvirus. We should learn from others experience in this regard.

Any fully recovered case below 35 years of age should be offered lifetime govt employment in lieu for their time for the next 1 year on the frontlines. It is the best investment we can make.

A friend of mine a microbiologist said the blood samples from those who have recovered is very important and used as a base to develop the vaccines. So I am sure we must be collecting thier blood to analyse and develop vaccines.