Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

[hanumadu]

Shaun, Thanks.

[vishvak]

Coming to Asymptomatic situation if I may ask for my understanding is there no substitute like personal pain and relief like other virus influenza for example or any part will remain as dormant if infected after first time. Though I must admit what I saw on TV about many people not understanding the virus so this must not be simplest thing.

[alexis]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 284187.cms

Chinese kits show their true colours! Why is ICMR pushing them after knowing about bad experiences of other countries?

[pankajs]

https://twitter.com/KiranKS/status/1252658113284411394

17,000+ COVID cases in India as of 19 April. Only 166 needed critical care. The rest recovering with basic care.

Out of those 166, ICU needed for 87, extra oxygen needed for 55 and ventilators needed for just 24.

Only 0.14% of Corona positive cases needing ventilators at once!

17,000 Total
166 Critical care
87 ICU
55 Oxygen
24 Ventilator

[sajo]

From the Hindu (not an outlet I frequently visit)

A five-member Central team has projected that the number of COVID-19 cases in Mumbai will touch an estimated 42,604 by April 30 and spiral to 6,56,407 by May 15.

Based on mathematical modelling for Mumbai by the Union Ministry of Health on April 16, the data presented by the team caught the Maharastra government off guard. The State government contested the methodology and tools used for the latest projection and gap analysis.

According to the data projections initially put together by the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Mumbai’s health infrastructure during this peak would have a staggering shortage of 13,636 ventilators and 4,83,000 isolation beds.


The State government on Tuesday made a detailed presentation of its own to the visiting Inter-Ministerial Central Teams (IMCTs), highlighting the “discrepancies” in the modelling.

According to the projections presented on April 16, the shortage of isolation beds without oxygen support will touch 30,481 by April 30 in Mumbai, while beds with oxygen support will fall short by 5,466. As cases cross 40,000, the city will need another 1,200 ICU beds and 392 ventilators. When the case count touches 6,56,407 on May 15, the shortage of isolation beds without oxygen support will be a staggering 4,83,385, and shortage of ICU beds will be 27,688 while the shortage of ventilators will be 13,636, said the report, a copy of which is with The Hindu.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/mu ... 400889.ece

Is this fearmongering of the highest order to goad the state govt into action or something else? Scary figures if they are true.
Similar math if applied to WB would probably produce even more scarier numbers.

[hanumadu]

https://twitter.com/KiranKS/status/1252658113284411394

17,000+ COVID cases in India as of 19 April. Only 166 needed critical care. The rest recovering with basic care.

Out of those 166, ICU needed for 87, extra oxygen needed for 55 and ventilators needed for just 24.

Only 0.14% of Corona positive cases needing ventilators at once!

17,000 Total
166 Critical care
87 ICU
55 Oxygen
24 Ventilator

There are more than 50 people dying every day. So are they dying with using a ventilator? I thought all critical patients needed ventilators.

[pankajs]

^^
Out of 166 Critical patients only 24 were on ventilators. Critical, it seems, are those that need extra medical attention not necessarily Ventilator. i.e. able to breath on their own but with complications.

People dying primarily would be amongst those critical 166 but not necessarily. There have been reports were infected for otherwise normal looking/behaving people have suddenly collapsed and died.

[Bart S]

There are more than 50 people dying every day. So are they dying with using a ventilator? I thought all critical patients needed ventilators.

That was what people initially thought, hence the hype about ventilator shortage and everybody trying to manufacture one. But it looks like the virus causes multi-organ failure and that might be what people are actually dying from, even before their lungs give way.

[Rahul M]

https://twitter.com/KiranKS/status/1252658113284411394

17,000+ COVID cases in India as of 19 April. Only 166 needed critical care. The rest recovering with basic care.

Out of those 166, ICU needed for 87, extra oxygen needed for 55 and ventilators needed for just 24.

Only 0.14% of Corona positive cases needing ventilators at once!

17,000 Total
166 Critical care
87 ICU
55 Oxygen
24 Ventilator

The problem with this stat is what about the 500 odd deaths ? Shouldn't those be counted as serious cases as well ?

[pankajs]

^^
Active cases is what it means, I am guessing. Gives one an idea of the load on the system presently.

i.e.
Total active cases = 17 k
Critical care 166
etc.

https://twitter.com/ShamikaRavi/status/ ... 1818598402

Prof Shamika Ravi @ShamikaRavi

#DailyUpdate #Covid19India
As total Confirmed cases grow in India, Active cases are growing at 6.8% - so doubling every 10 days.

[DrRatnadip]

There are more than 50 people dying every day. So are they dying with using a ventilator? I thought all critical patients needed ventilators.

That was what people initially thought, hence the hype about ventilator shortage and everybody trying to manufacture one. But it looks like the virus causes multi-organ failure and that might be what people are actually dying from, even before their lungs give way.

We had severe shortage of ventilators even before covid pandemic.. Now significant proportion of available ventilators are diverted in Covid ICU.. This is making other routine patients requiring venti suffer..
It seems average age of patients dying is lower in INDIA than in europe/ US.. Dont know cause

[Sachin]

11 new COVID-19 cases in Kerala on Wednesday.
Again as per CM 5 patients had arrived from abroad. Two house surgeons of Medical College, Kozhikode also have got infected as they traveled by train (in which the Tableeghi Jamaat chaps would also have traveled).

[vera_k]

One theory I heard is that average life expectancy in India is about 10 years lower than US/Europe. Therefore a 55 year old in India would have the same risk as a 65 year old in US/Europe. If this adjustment holds, it will mean that the virus will exact a significant toll in places that have a young demographic profile but also lower life expectancy.

[disha]

It seems average age of patients dying is lower in INDIA than in europe/ US.. Dont know cause

Comorbidities? Death per 10k is lower in California than in NY/NJ or Chicago. Generally CA has healthier lifestyle.

[disha]

It's the second section in the news link which wants me to go to Gujarat & wish to be asymptomatic!

https://ahmedabadmirror.indiatimes.com/ ... 281418.cms

You do know that Guj is a dry state?

I will think I am taking HCQ.

[DrRatnadip]

It seems average age of patients dying is lower in INDIA than in europe/ US.. Dont know cause

Comorbidities? Death per 10k is lower in California than in NY/NJ or Chicago. Generally CA has healthier lifestyle.

I am unsure.. Hope we are not loosing salvagable patients in govt setups.. Need to utilize private sector in better way..

[Cyrano]

There are now reports of traces of Corona virus being detected in non-drinking water sources in Paris region in France. 4 out of 27 samples recently tested showed traces of virus presence. This water is mostly used for cleaning public spaces and gardening.

Water contamination is perhaps inevitable given several medical reports confirm that faecal-oral transmission is possible when an infected person does viral shedding.

Though no one currently knows at what viral concentration water thus contaminated may lead to disease spread, this is a point of alert to to public water supplies across the world, and especially to Indian local authorities given our water woes which are worst during summer and our disparate sanitation levels.

We might want to advise Aam Mamata to drink boiled & cooled water and not stored water even if it comes from a clean source. Bottled packaged water in India is sometimes dubious or spurious.

[shaun]

There are now reports of traces of Corona virus being detected in non-drinking water sources in Paris region in France. 4 out of 27 samples recently tested showed traces of virus presence. This water is mostly used for cleaning public spaces and gardening.

Water contamination is perhaps inevitable given several medical reports confirm that faecal-oral transmission is possible when an infected person does viral shedding.

Though no one currently knows at what viral concentration water thus contaminated may lead to disease spread, this is a point of alert to to public water supplies across the world, and especially to Indian local authorities given our water woes which are worst during summer and our disparate sanitation levels.

We might want to advise Aam Mamata to drink boiled & cooled water and not stored water even if it comes from a clean source. Bottled packaged water in India is sometimes dubious or spurious.

Residual Chlorine is present in most disinfected drinking-water at concentrations of 0.2–1 mg/litre( provided suitable arrangement is used for dosing sodium or calcium hypochlorite ) , can it eradicate the problem in potable water ??

[Raveen]

It seems average age of patients dying is lower in INDIA than in europe/ US.. Dont know cause

Comorbidities? Death per 10k is lower in California than in NY/NJ or Chicago. Generally CA has healthier lifestyle.

Ha - nothing of the sort, despite the friendly cow ads. Cali (the state) has lower pop density than NYC/Chicago do. Nothing at all to do with the perceived healthier lifestyle which is honestly a baseless claim.

[Cain Marko]

Comorbidities? Death per 10k is lower in California than in NY/NJ or Chicago. Generally CA has healthier lifestyle.

Ha - nothing of the sort, despite the friendly cow ads. Cali (the state) has lower pop density than NYC/Chicago do. Nothing at all to do with the perceived healthier lifestyle which is honestly a baseless claim.

Calif is one of the healthier states in the country along with Hawaii and Colorado iirc. Think in terms of obesity and related diseases.

[Primus]

Saar, great field. Great to have your inputs on this.

It sure is saar, problem is, funding is always an issue. Some morbid humour- Pandemics like this are good for researchers, funding is assured for a few years. Other wise, there simply arent enough jobs and what ever are available, have low pay and job security.

For example,
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-c ... d-n1150091

I too moved onto Cancer genomics as there is more money and opportunities.

Aarvee Ji, it is indeed sad that a pure science person has to change his career path to make a better life. That has been the situation in the West particularly, if you want to be a doctor/lawyer/engineer, you pay through the nose for a college education, a PhD in science - you get in free. However, not much of a career opportunity after that.

Wasn't there a woman holding up a sign somewhere saying something like - "You pay a biologist $1800 per month, but want a vaccine developed, why don't you ask Ronaldo to do it for you?"

[Primus]

Ethnic groups are dying & in ICU at a higher percentage compared to White population, in US & UK.

33% of ICU patients are ethnic, for a population of 13-14% in UK!

No yet, fully detailed study as to why, however along with cultural & dietary differences, potentially lack of Vitamin D production, which helps the immune system.

A good video by the doc.



Fundamentally we Indians are not made to live in colder place, with no sun

Hmmm, I am living perfectly well in the cold environs of the Amreekan northeast. And I am full-blooded Tamil.

The high rate of ICU patients are mainly blacks and Hispanics I imagine. I don't know about the Pakis and Bangladeshis but desis in my circle seem to have a lower rate of infection than whites and I have no heard of anyone in an ICU (yet.) We seem to be far more careful and conscientious about keeping ourselves and our families safe than goras. (We use a lot of delivery for grocery instead of going out on our own, for example.) Economic class might have to do with it also. Again, those desi cab drivers (mainly pakis/other peacefuls) and convenient store clerks might be having it worse.

If you look at the details of the numbers in these studies, there is actually not much difference. However, the media does like to hype the fact that minorities are dying in greater numbers, it makes it newsworthy from their perspective.

It is sadly true that minorities in the US do have a worse time with health care, numerous studies have confirmed lack of access among other problems. There is a significant underlying pathology of lifestyle and upbringing. There was a mind-blowing study in Feb 1990 in the NEJM that headlined 'Mortality among Black men in Harlem is lower than in Bangla Desh". They lived on average for 36 yrs only and the leading cause of death was cardiovascular events due to poor perception and health awareness. Homicide IIRC was the second leading cause.

Indians do have more coronary disease and diabetes etc for sure. We are as a culture more conscious of personal hygiene etc though, hence in a modern society, we are less prone to infections as such.

[hanumadu]

Why does Dr Fauci think they can contain US corona virus deaths to 50000? There are already 44000 deaths by today.

[Raveen]

Ha - nothing of the sort, despite the friendly cow ads. Cali (the state) has lower pop density than NYC/Chicago do. Nothing at all to do with the perceived healthier lifestyle which is honestly a baseless claim.

Calif is one of the healthier states in the country along with Hawaii and Colorado iirc. Think in terms of obesity and related diseases.

Obesity numbers, sure, but are you trying to tie obesity to Covid? If not, then broad statements like one state is healthier are pointless. They are "healthier" based on your chosen metric, I bet L.A. folks have more respiratory issues than someone in Wyoming thanks to that SMOG, does that make Cali less healthy?

[Raveen]

. We are as a culture more conscious of personal hygiene etc though

Is that why there are trace amounts of fecal matter on every Indian Rupee note?

[Rony]

. We are as a culture more conscious of personal hygiene etc though

Is that why there are trace amounts of fecal matter on every Indian Rupee note?

Eh, where is the evidence for that ? Did his words hurt you that much that you have to come up with this nonsense ?

[Gerard]

Coronavirus: UK human vaccine trials to begin

Germany to start first coronavirus vaccine trial

[disha]

Obesity numbers, sure, but are you trying to tie obesity to Covid? If not, then broad statements like one state is healthier are pointless. They are "healthier" based on your chosen metric, I bet L.A. folks have more respiratory issues than someone in Wyoming thanks to that SMOG, does that make Cali less healthy?

Population density or lack of it shows up in R0 or transmission. Or rather in a given unit of time, x units will be infected vs. y units infected.

However, once they are infected the death rates are to be compared. It helps to compare death rate even state wise and county wise.

Using that, it has been found that african-americans and latinos are more likely to have a higher death rate compared to others. Is it Vitamin D deficiency? Access to health care? Co-morbities due to obesity (hypertension and diabetes)? Or simply poverty?

Poverty is a major cause of obesity in US.

Yes, CA is healthier compared to NY and NJ and yes obesity is a morbity that needs to be checked. https://www.americashealthrankings.org/ ... n/state/CA

[Raveen]

Obesity numbers, sure, but are you trying to tie obesity to Covid? If not, then broad statements like one state is healthier are pointless. They are "healthier" based on your chosen metric, I bet L.A. folks have more respiratory issues than someone in Wyoming thanks to that SMOG, does that make Cali less healthy?

Population density or lack of it shows up in R0 or transmission. Or rather in a given unit of time, x units will be infected vs. y units infected.

However, once they are infected the death rates are to be compared. It helps to compare death rate even state wise and county wise.

Using that, it has been found that african-americans and latinos are more likely to have a higher death rate compared to others. Is it Vitamin D deficiency? Access to health care? Co-morbities due to obesity (hypertension and diabetes)? Or simply poverty?

Poverty is a major cause of obesity in US.

Yes, CA is healthier compared to NY and NJ and yes obesity is a morbity that needs to be checked. https://www.americashealthrankings.org/ ... n/state/CA

When you talk about infection rates per 10,000 then you are talking about R0. If COVID had any direct relationship to obesity, OK would be the worst hit state.

[Raveen]

Is that why there are trace amounts of fecal matter on every Indian Rupee note?

Eh, where is the evidence for that ? Did his words hurt you that much that you have to come up with this nonsense ?

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/b3b5/d ... 57534d.pdf

Search

Also, where is the evidence to support we are the most health conscious society in the world or whatever the assertion was from OP

[DavidD]

Population density or lack of it shows up in R0 or transmission. Or rather in a given unit of time, x units will be infected vs. y units infected.

However, once they are infected the death rates are to be compared. It helps to compare death rate even state wise and county wise.

Using that, it has been found that african-americans and latinos are more likely to have a higher death rate compared to others. Is it Vitamin D deficiency? Access to health care? Co-morbities due to obesity (hypertension and diabetes)? Or simply poverty?

Poverty is a major cause of obesity in US.

Yes, CA is healthier compared to NY and NJ and yes obesity is a morbity that needs to be checked. https://www.americashealthrankings.org/ ... n/state/CA

When you talk about infection rates per 10,000 then you are talking about R0. If COVID had any direct relationship to obesity, OK would be the worst hit state.

Obesity is a risk factor for mortality as well as obesity related illnesses (e.g. diabetes, hypertension, coronary artery disease, etc.) but not infection as far as I'm aware of.

[Raveen]

When you talk about infection rates per 10,000 then you are talking about R0. If COVID had any direct relationship to obesity, OK would be the worst hit state.

Obesity is a risk factor for mortality as well as obesity related illnesses (e.g. diabetes, hypertension, coronary artery disease, etc.) but not infection as far as I'm aware of.

Agree 100% that's my point too

[Aarvee]

Aarvee Ji, it is indeed sad that a pure science person has to change his career path to make a better life. That has been the situation in the West particularly, if you want to be a doctor/lawyer/engineer, you pay through the nose for a college education, a PhD in science - you get in free. However, not much of a career opportunity after that.

Wasn't there a woman holding up a sign somewhere saying something like - "You pay a biologist $1800 per month, but want a vaccine developed, why don't you ask Ronaldo to do it for you?"

Very true sir. Truth be told, I seriously considered graduate entry into medicine for an MD after both masters and PhD. But got a family to look after, so cant do at this stage in life. Any way, OT for this thread so I'll stop.

Sir, any opinion about potential vaccine efficacy in the context of my previous post about viral presence being in long alveolar surfaces and poorly serviced by humoral system?

[Rishi_Tri]

Details about India China Virus preparation shared by Prakash Javdekar yesterday:

Isolation Beds available 200,000
ICU Beds available 24,000
Ventilators available 13,000
PPE ordered with 77 manufacturers 18,800,000
N95 masks available 2,500,000
N95 masks ordered 25,000,000

Source of Information: All India Radio news

[disha]

Details about India China Virus preparation shared by Prakash Javdekar yesterday:

Isolation Beds available 200,000
ICU Beds available 24,000
Ventilators available 13,000
PPE ordered with 77 manufacturers 18,800,000
N95 masks available 2,500,000
N95 masks ordered 25,000,000

Source of Information: All India Radio news

That is an amazing preparation! Given the symptomatic cases are at 20k, the above capacity hopefully is not utilized.

I think India will amaze the world. It might be able to open up the economy with a manageable caseload of coronavirus!

[disha]

When you talk about infection rates per 10,000 then you are talking about R0. If COVID had any direct relationship to obesity, OK would be the worst hit state.

Raveen'ji, I think you have totally twisted my argument. I never ever said "COVID has direct relationship to obesity".

I am definitely saying that "Obesity causes higher mortality for WuhanVirus due to associated comorbidities like Hypertension and Diabetes". I am further stating that the obesity index of NY/NJ higher than CA may be causing higher CFR in NY/NJ. I am also further stating that the african-american and latino population may be disproportionately affected because of higher obesity index and one of the causative factor of their obesity is because of poverty and the other being education.

In the above, there are further nuances based on the words "definite", "may" and "the". Hopefully you get the above line of thought along with the encumbered riders like 'may'.

[Added later] And yes: Per capita, health index is better in CA than in NY/NJ and in that sense, CA is a healthier state compared to NY/NJ. And that might be an indication of why CFR is lower in CA than in NY/NJ.

[Gerard]

Our vaccine's clinical trial will start from tomorrow: Vaccinologist Adrian Hill

Production of Oxford University's ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine has already started at one partner, Serum Institute of India, the world's largest producer of vaccines. 5 million doses a month in two weeks time rising to ten million a month within six months time. Vaccine is an attenuated Chimpanzee Adenovirus capable of producing the spike (S) protein of SARS-CoV-2.

Interview with Oxford Professor Adrian Hill and Adar Poonawalla of Serum.

Serum Institute: How an Indian horse breeder built Asia’s largest vaccine company

As the world’s largest vaccine manufacturer, nobody ever dreamt that we do more than Glaxo or Merck or Sanofi. And they are a clutch of 20 companies or ten companies that have been merged, whereas we are a company that started as a small scale company without any government support. And, that I would consider would be a major milestone in my career, at the cost of huge profits that we have sacrificed by keeping the prices very affordable, the lowest in the world.

Investigational chimp adenovirus MERS-CoV vaccine protects monkeys

An investigational vaccine called ChAdOx1 MERS protected two groups of rhesus macaques from disease caused by Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). The scientists’ MERS-CoV macaque study follows earlier studies of the experimental vaccine in mice. They also have successfully tested the vaccine platform against Nipah virus in hamsters and against Lassa virus in guinea pigs; they next plan to expedite testing a vaccine candidate against SARS-CoV-2. The MERS vaccine is being studied in Phase 1 human clinical trials in the United Kingdom and Saudi Arabia. The same chimpanzee adenovirus vaccine platform also is being assessed for malaria, HIV, influenza, hepatitis C, tuberculosis and Ebola.

[vimal]

Our vaccine's clinical trial will start from tomorrow: Vaccinologist Adrian Hill

Production of Oxford University's ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine has already started at one partner, Serum Institute of India, the world's largest producer of vaccines. 5 million doses a month in two weeks time rising to ten million a month within six months time. Vaccine is an attenuated Chimpanzee Adenovirus capable of producing the spike (S) protein of SARS-CoV-2.

Interview with Oxford Professor Adrian Hill and Adar Poonawalla of Serum.

I hope Serum is able to produce this in sufficient quantity so that India becomes the global hub for the vaccine.

[Rony]

Eh, where is the evidence for that ? Did his words hurt you that much that you have to come up with this nonsense ?

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/b3b5/d ... 57534d.pdf

Search

How is that different or worse from these in the so called first world ?

This is exactly how often cocaine and feces show up on your dollar bills
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this- ... 2017-07-11

There are a lot of gross microbes on a dollar bill
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... story.html

Also, where is the evidence to support we are the most health conscious society in the world or whatever the assertion was from OP

So you did not even know what his assertion is and assuming things ? I will let him speak for himself but i did not see the word *most conscious* in his assertion. He used the words * we are as a culture more conscious of personal hygiene*

It is true that cleanliness is enforced to a great extent in everyday lives of Hindus and is seen as an important virtue. In most households, women will still not enter the kitchen without having a bath. Many Hindus in India consider it an important part of personal hygiene to have a bath each and every time they empty their bowels. Of course, there is the paradox of personal hygiene and public uncleanliness in India. But thats a different topic.

[hanumadu]

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/b3b5/d ... 57534d.pdf

Search

By the way there is feces in the swimming pools too. Hope you don't get into a swimming pool.