China Military Watch - Sept' 2016

kit · Post by **kit** » 01 May 2020 00:33

chola wrote:
Vivek K wrote: Point is - lusting for imports is fine to meet the Puki threat. Even against the lowly Pukis, as we saw in the recent operations - imported weapons do not translate into overwhelming superiority vis-a-vis Pukis. That is because Pukis get baksheesh from US and China while we pay in hard currency and exorbitant sums.
So IMHO Larry, in a fight with the Chinese, India will do very badly, probably worse than 1962. The only way is to build a credible domestic industrial base that supports the military.
That is why I always said like having Cheen as a rival. Thank goodness we've decoupled ourselves from the Pukes. Racing with them will leave on the same f-ing rung of the ladder. Racing with the chinis will drive us up. If we take up their challenge with our own MIC.

The key is looking at things holistically. There is a camp that might think importing a few more expensive high quality firangi weapons will balance out chini industrial quantity. But imported quality weapons have a shelf life before they age and go obsolete. Unless we are going to war with Cheen now, those quality weapons can be a deadweight to our development.

The truth is if we go to war at this very moment we own all the advantages in every realistic theater and scenario of war. Therefore, we had time to develop a MIC to match Cheen's.

Yes, if it is total war where both sides are pouring everything against one opponent then maybe they can overwhelm us with that output but total war between two nuclear states? It'll never get to that point.

The bigget question is if we can hold onto sea, air and space during PEACE TIME. That's where quantity counts most. Where humans must use machines then those would fewer machines will be left behind. And no war so you can't even attrition numbers.

Just as they are overrunning the SCS without going to war, they can swarm machines over the IOR, the Arctic, the Stratosphere (we are nearing the age of continuous and autonomous drone flights) or the Moon.

i feel india should get the american military industrial complex to make weapons in India , much like they did for Turkey and SoKo, this can be game changer vs China militarily and economically. Let India provide all the electronic ancillaries the americans get from china., everyone wins

chola · Post by **chola** » 01 May 2020 00:44

^^^ Turkey and South Korea use Amreeki designs for local consumption. That industrial capacity are built up by themselves. The Turks and Koreans also use European designs. They even end up exporting those.

We can use American designs and ToT but I don't think the American MIC will be actually building things in India for US armed forces. Only the UK and Japan have a history of providing parts and systems to the US military I think.

We have to create the MIC on our own. And I would prefer it that way anyhow.

Prithwiraj · Post by **Prithwiraj** » 01 May 2020 01:04

All are driven by strategic imperatives. No point begging to build stuff at our place like off-setting .... it is nothing but a job making initiative and does zero in-terms of building real capabilities unless we can literally copy the IP like Chinkis. We will keep on importing to please the masters. Denial of Cryogenic engine tech was a perfect example of what we can do if we are pushed to the wall. We are now categorized with Saudis (Beduins and Camel herders) in-terms of having money to buy stuff so let them do it. Why bother. This is laughable for a country who had stalwarts like Ramanujam and CV Raman, Jagadish Chandra Bose and countless others....

Vivek K · Post by **Vivek K** » 01 May 2020 02:36

Folks please focus back on the thread title unless you want to invite the wrath of BRADMINs.

Larry Walker · Post by **Larry Walker** » 02 May 2020 15:28

Again, I don't understand this theory of PRC can only deploy 10% or whatever fraction and the rest it has to have in other theaters. None of the land neighbours of PRC maintain any offensive posture vis-a-vis PRC - they all are in defensive posture to thwart PRC attack. So when a war breaks out, PRC can keep moving assets from other sectors to stem attrition - while we have to rely on other countries sending us supplies. Now if 2 nuclear armed mega countries fight, who do you think amongst Russia, France or any other western country will open supply India neglecting all PRC blackmailing and arm-twisting ? And are we forgetting that Porkies will by default open their side against India and may very well let PLA prong their attack from their soil also. What will be our options and which country will go all out to support us ??

chola · Post by **chola** » 02 May 2020 15:31

They really don't give up on a production line. lol

Supposedly there was a first flight of a re-engined Y-5 this month.

The Y-5 in case you don't know is a rip-off of the AN-2 which first flew in the 1940s. The Chinese had been building this anachronism since the 1950s. It's a frikkin' biplane! lol

chola · Post by **chola** » 02 May 2020 16:02

Larry Walker wrote:Again, I don't understand this theory of PRC can only deploy 10% or whatever fraction and the rest it has to have in other theaters. None of the land neighbours of PRC maintain any offensive posture vis-a-vis PRC - they all are in defensive posture to thwart PRC attack. So when a war breaks out, PRC can keep moving assets from other sectors to stem attrition - while we have to rely on other countries sending us supplies. Now if 2 nuclear armed mega countries fight, who do you think amongst Russia, France or any other western country will open supply India neglecting all PRC blackmailing and arm-twisting ? And are we forgetting that Porkies will by default open their side against India and may very well let PLA prong their attack from their soil also. What will be our options and which country will go all out to support us ??

Hain!

1) they have like 14 intl borders to defend and what makes you think they can simply leave any one of them undefended? You are talking about people who made the Great Wall, they are paranoid about defending,

2) they prioritized air and sea. I don't think I've posted any land system in this thread like forever. And for air and sea, geographically it is impossible for them to bring much against India (the same constraints for ground forces too but worse for air and sea),

3) the USN/USMC and USAF play on their doorstep -- off their coast, in Japan, in Korea, they berth in Vietnam, Singapore and Australia,

4) Taiwan is their stated primary annexation goal and it is an island that must be kept under threat of massive air and sea to keep it from just declaring independence and hosting even more USN/USMC/USAF bases next to Cheen,

5) 95% of Cheen's most valuable assets are clustered along its coast most exposed to the US and its allies; they must be protected by massive air and sea forces at all times

6) #3, 4 and 5 are why chini land forces are their weakest arm with the lowest priority in budget but they are the ones most affecting India. They already cut their ground forces to a smaller troop number than the Indian Army and they get very little new toys as opposed to their Navel and Air Farce. A light tank and possibly the high altitude Z-20 copyhawk are the only things that I can think of that would be India eccentric. Everything else are geared towards Unkil, Japan, Korea and Taiwan.

If two nuclear nations like China and India fight, the scenario that you fear of being overwhelmed by machines will simply never get to that point. Do you think we (or they) won't go tactical nuke if armies are pouring unchecked across the borders of one side or the other?

Fights between great powers will be short before things escalate to total war. If it gets to total war then things will go nuke if one side starts overwhelming the other conventionally. Therefore no fights between great powers since Korea when Cheen had no nukes.

The infinitely greater threat is not being overwhelmed during war but being overwhelmed and marginalized by their MIC during peace.

Larry Walker · Post by **Larry Walker** » 02 May 2020 19:02

If they need any amount of significant land army .. it will be against India and in that case pls count PA under their umbrella. Also if nuclear weapons would be used so early in a war then there was no need for USA and USSR to build huge coventional armies. If PRC and India get engaged ina war, our survival strategy is that USA will interfere in their eastern seaboard ? Is this how we strategise defense of our country ??

Larry Walker · Post by **Larry Walker** » 02 May 2020 19:08

chola wrote:
The infinitely greater threat is not being overwhelmed during war but being overwhelmed and marginalized by their MIC during peace.

If they succeed in marginalizing us with their MIC, do you think war will be an option for us if we have to protect our ultimate interests when threatened ? Will this not force us to become USA lackey ? And looking at how Porkistan is becoming a Chinese protectorate, will be be able to safeguard our interests even against Porkies ??

chola · Post by **chola** » 02 May 2020 22:53

Walker ji, we have the largest ground forces by far:

India -- 1.237m
Cheen -- 0.950m (2018 figures and dropping fast)
US -- 0.470m
Rus -- 0.350m

Larry Walker wrote:
chola wrote:
The infinitely greater threat is not being overwhelmed during war but being overwhelmed and marginalized by their MIC during peace.
If they succeed in marginalizing us with their MIC, do you think war will be an option for us if we have to protect our ultimate interests when threatened ? Will this not force us to become USA lackey ? And looking at how Porkistan is becoming a Chinese protectorate, will be be able to safeguard our interests even against Porkies ??

No, the rivalry with Cheen should push us to become a great manufacturing power in our own right just as Cheen became one under their rivalry with Unkil.

I don't see us going to war unless Cheen goes kinetic first. We are too dharmic.

The Anglos on the other hand are Messianic and they can strike even if Cheen doesn't go to war first. Cheen doesn't want war (and they haven't gone to war in 5 decades) because time is on their side as their per capita income nears that of Taiwan or Hong Kong. At four times the US population, the trendlines are inevitably -- without war. But how the Anglos can strike without going nuclear? That is the $64 trillion dollar question.

Vivek K · Post by **Vivek K** » 03 May 2020 00:53

Chola ji - compare China theater command strengths with their counters on the Chinese side. India will have at least 50% of troops committed to Puki borders. And Indian infrastructure in the Northeast is nowhere as capable as the Chinese infrastructure. So - India will be overwhelmed like in 1962. We must also look at quantities - rapidly create infrastructure, 500 LCAs, 1500 Astras and Astra NG, 1500 Arjuns, 2000 Dhanushs, Millions of INSAS, dozens of Shivaliks on a war footing. Only positive is Pinaka and Akash.
And how effective is hiding behind a nuke umbrella? We broke that myth with the Pukis! India is a soft state - therefore India will never respond with a nuke strike in response to a border skirmish.
India needs to stop it lust for imports. Imports are eating away the slim chance for economic betterment. Every Rafale, Talwar, T-90, Bofors, Foreign small arms represents millions of jobs lost.
The only way to survive/have a chance of beating the Chinese is to think like them.

chola · Post by **chola** » 03 May 2020 01:46

Vivek K wrote:Chola ji - compare China theater command strengths with their counters on the Chinese side. India will have at least 50% of troops committed to Puki borders.

Saar, I posted many times:

At the time of Doklam we had 10 divisions and 250K men to their three brigades (around 7K each.) And the PLAAF had only 8 fighters on the plateau at the time. (Only 32 most recently.)

https://theprint.in/opinion/china-dokla ... -you/39851

Those are the IA forces just for the chini border. The Pakiland front are assigned a whole lot more.

But to investigate your point, I will pretend that IA HQ takes half from those facing the PLA to the much larger Western command (silly premise) -- halving the East to 5 divisions and 125K jawans. Then I will double the chini forces.

We would still be at 125K to 42K or 3 to 1 advantage!

The only way to survive/have a chance of beating the Chinese is to think like them.

Yes. And that would be building out a MIC like them and not worry about being overrun and begin panic buying of super duper firang weapons. We own enough advantages the way our current forces are set up to allow time to build out a MIC.

Vivek K · Post by **Vivek K** » 03 May 2020 21:35

chola wrote: Saar, I posted many times:

I'm afraid it isn't about you or me.

At the time of Doklam we had 10 divisions and 250K men to their three brigades (around 7K each.) And the PLAAF had only 8 fighters on the plateau at the time. (Only 32 most recently.)

I would suggest that you come off the complacency horse and think -
a) how much effort does it take to increase the number of fighters at a base? The author of the article you refer to says that the Chinese can easily double the fighter strength there. The author of your article expects Bhutan to slip away from India over time - what are you reading? The Chinese side has better infrastructure to move in reinforcements quickly.
b) The Chinese airforce is 3 times larger and growing rapidly while we lust after and waste our limited resources in buying the most expensive planes and helicopters ever - and this while cheaper, effective local alternatives are available. In the last confrontation (1962), we did not even bring our airforce online.
c) Do you think all battles will be fought at Doklam? China will pick our weakest link to attack. And also they will look to divert our resources by opening additional fronts. They can do so by using their larger numbers of subs (China has more than 4 times the submarines), surface ships and 7-8 times the artillery. We release small orders and go to bed happy about our capabilities.

Read the book "A Higher Call" - this is about a German fighter pilot (ace in my eyes) during WWII and his take on the airwar. Read how the entry of USA into the war changed the whole dynamic - how German 3 ship formations would be bounced by US 10 ship or more formations - guess who came out with the upper hand.

Instead of using successes in key systems like LCA, Arjun, Netra, Shivalik, LCH, ALH to produce them in large numbers cheaply to protect its borders, India is instead chasing wild fantasies - exorbitantly priced Rafales, ineffective T-90s, no real artillery build up to compare with the Chinese, release of orders for Talwars to Russia at exorbitant prices instead of investing in local facilities to produce ships like the Shivalik faster. With this colossal waste of resources, the Indian armed forces have shown how poorly prepared they are to fight a war with the Chinese.

Yes. And that would be building out a MIC like them and not worry about being overrun and begin panic buying of super duper firang weapons. We own enough advantages the way our current forces are set up to allow time to build out a MIC.

Well here you're making my point onleee!

chola · Post by **chola** » 04 May 2020 02:05

^^^ Vivek ji, we are not far apart. We both agreed that we need to create a MIC and to put our resources there instead of importing.

And it is not complacency but acknowledging the advantages that we have SO that we can go about creating that MIC.

If we ignore our advantages and go full tilt "we're going to get crushed by this chini tide" fearmongering then you know full well that the import lobby will use that as an excuse to import! We are already seeing this happen. The Rafales are already considered superior to all the J-20s that Cheen pumps out. What happens if there is the inevitable delay in the AMCA?

We need to industrialize and build out the MIC. I only add that we own enough advantages that we can build out our MIC without needing to buy firangi gear to balance out Cheen.

kit · Post by **kit** » 04 May 2020 04:11

I think the message is loud and clear , thanks to the pandemic !.. its all push for indigenous solutions, dont think any more Rafales are coming in other than that ordered., also more impetus to exports

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 04 May 2020 13:57

somdev wrote:China readies long range stealth bomber Xian H-20
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/militar ... -its-debut

There

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 04 May 2020 14:09

Nice Photoshop, Lets wait for the Chinese to Officially unviel the H-20 Pics. But I think its high time we start a bomber program, Mobile platforms which can cruise missiles from unexpected angles and distance.

shaun · Post by **shaun** » 04 May 2020 20:11

Comparing the gun stabilization of VT-4 with Arjun Mk1

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAgJNby ... e=youtu.be

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m113yu1 ... e=youtu.be

chola · Post by **chola** » 04 May 2020 21:37

^^^ Word is the pakis are going to get the VT-4 (after Thailand and Nigeria.)

kit · Post by **kit** » 04 May 2020 22:20

chola wrote:^^^ Word is the pakis are going to get the VT-4 (after Thailand and Nigeria.)

janes reporting a few samples end to a foreign country "for testing" .. for the porkis ?

Larry Walker · Post by **Larry Walker** » 04 May 2020 22:26

shaun wrote:Comparing the gun stabilization of VT-4 with Arjun Mk1

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAgJNby ... e=youtu.be

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m113yu1 ... e=youtu.be

I am assuming that gun stabilisation kit (euphemistically) would be the same across with platform specific tweaks ?? Does this tell us something about the Chinese product quality ?? If static tank cannot keep its gun stabilised, would it's performance be worse in actual battlefield ?

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 04 May 2020 22:39

kvraghav wrote:There

Thank you for posting the real picture.

Let us not un-necessarily dhoti shiver.

shaun · Post by **shaun** » 05 May 2020 10:13

Larry Walker wrote:
shaun wrote:Comparing the gun stabilization of VT-4 with Arjun Mk1

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAgJNby ... e=youtu.be

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m113yu1 ... e=youtu.be
I am assuming that gun stabilisation kit (euphemistically) would be the same across with platform specific tweaks ?? Does this tell us something about the Chinese product quality ?? If static tank cannot keep its gun stabilised, would it's performance be worse in actual battlefield ?

I guess Arjun Mk2 will have far better stabilization.

chetonzz · Post by **chetonzz** » 05 May 2020 11:16

chola · Post by **chola** » 05 May 2020 20:21

^^^ Arjun is better in every aspect but the VT-4 earns chinis moola.

chola · Post by **chola** » 06 May 2020 10:10

Supposedly the core of the CJ-2000AX (C2XC-101) was tested successfully in March 2020.

The CJ-2000 is the chini engine project for the C919 which is in dire straits because of the CFM LEAP-1C that Trump had threatened to cut off.

Immensely important duel use development.

Vivek K · Post by **Vivek K** » 06 May 2020 19:26

chola wrote:^^^ Arjun is better in every aspect but the VT-4 earns chinis moola.

Arjun will never earn moolah since IA lusts after foreign toys onlee. T-90s and then onto T-14. There is no room for Arjun in IA's future plans. Any money left will be diverted to buying white elephants like Apaches.

chola · Post by **chola** » 06 May 2020 23:21

Vivek K wrote:
chola wrote:^^^ Arjun is better in every aspect but the VT-4 earns chinis moola.
Arjun will never earn moolah since IA lusts after foreign toys onlee. T-90s and then onto T-14. There is no room for Arjun in IA's future plans. Any money left will be diverted to buying white elephants like Apaches.

If I recall correctly, IA accepted a batch of Arjun MK1-A and then a run of the Arjun MK2 if I recall correctly. Yeah, it won't ever be exported but it will still be put to good use. Especially they can reduce the weight with MK2.

The Apaches are super expensive but the best of class so hardly white elephants. Maybe very expensive war elephants. IA/IAF Apaches can be used to devastating effect. But will need to be careful in using them. Rare and precious resources.

chola · Post by **chola** » 06 May 2020 23:27

Only posting this because Rupprecht is highly respected (he authored the definitive series on chini aircraft/air power.)

Usually the illustrations on chini rumors are near professional grade but this one ... LOL
https://mobile.twitter.com/RupprechtDei ... 8883088384

@Rupprecht_A
@RupprechtDeino
Ok, COVID-time means rumor time ... Winking face

Here's an interesting post at the http://lt.cjdby.net by "dzytc", who allegedly saw the J-35 prototype. Anyway he drew a surely rough and childish illustration of what the supposed prototype looks like.

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 07 May 2020 08:20

chola wrote:

Looks like a haraam picture of a Chinese mijjile

In all seriousness, we just have to wait for this thing to unravel and make a demo.

kit · Post by **kit** » 07 May 2020 11:56

Variable geometry wing ..transition from an X , interesting; apart from the childish graphics that is

chola · Post by **chola** » 07 May 2020 23:49

Follow up. Someone posted a picture of a FC-31 and claimed it is the third prototype "31003" but Rupprecht thinks it looks more like just another photo of the 2nd prototype which is already known.

Any new prototype should have navalization features like foldable wing tips. Anyways I was disappointed that it did not look like the kid's drawings. lol

https://mobile.twitter.com/RupprechtDei ... 8396403717

@Rupprecht_A
@RupprechtDeino

Even if some claim this to be the third FC-31 or even J-35 prototype with the serial number '31003' it looks IMO more like the second one!

Most of all it does not have the PLAAF symbol but the AVIC-logo known on no. 02.

And at least this I won't expect on the PLA variant.

chola · Post by **chola** » 13 May 2020 10:11

The PLANAF (People Liberation Army Navy Air Force LOL) is using two advanced trainers -- JL-9 and JL-10. The funny thing is that the reworked turbojet JL-9G is expected to be the carrier trainer. The JL-10 is more geared towards the large land-based component of the naval air arm.

The large LERX on what is a Mig-21 airframe looks like an abomination.
https://mobile.twitter.com/RupprechtDei ... 2369672193

@Rupprecht_A
@RupprechtDeino
As expected, the improved JL-9G has made its maiden flight on May 12, 2020. However I miss a tailhook...

https://mobile.twitter.com/HenriKenhman ... 4788385798

East Pendulum
@HenriKenhmann
Exercice de tirs Air-Sol des élèves pilotes de la marine chinoise, avec leur JL-10H.

dinesh_kimar · Post by **dinesh_kimar** » 13 May 2020 14:10

Our TEDBF for navy could look a lot like JL-10, if the planners that be decide on ease of manufacture.

It is at times like this I miss a MIC like wat China has, with domestic designs inducted periodically, and now graduated to stealth planes, large transports and domestic engines.

Being a socialist economy, we should have built follow on versions of existing designs, like China and N.Korea did.

chola · Post by **chola** » 13 May 2020 20:59

^^^ We have had eco-systems built up for Marut, MiG-21, MiG-23 and now the SU-30MKI.

The first three we allowed to die on the vine but I hope we can do something with the fourth. The MKI project includes making 70% of the AL-31 heavyweight engine too. Are we going to allow that eco-system to dissolve after the last MKI is completed? HAL is already sounding warnings that once the last MKI is built, hundreds of suppliers will be crushed.

https://www.defensenews.com/industry/20 ... suppliers/

This never happens in Cheen no matter how old a production line. They keep the eco-systems on place for the next project.

Now, why don't we do the same? Not too many nations have our kind of open access to uber gora stuff is one reason why. M2K? Yeah just buy! SU-30? Yes, we sell you vectoring version that even Russia didn't have at the time! Typhoon? Please buy! Gripen? Please buy! F-16? Please buy! F-18? Please buy! Rafale? Bought! Best in class C-17? Bought! Best in class P-8? Bought! Best in class Apache? Bought!

How can we blame the armed forces for not wanting retreaded MiG-21s (even if we could have built it in house)? Our ability to basically import anything is both a boon and a bane. Cheen is forced into a MIC by embargoes so they cheat, lie and steal to create home solutions.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 14 May 2020 00:38

@chola The last MKI was delivered a few weeks back (viewtopic.php?p=2425643#p2425643), so thats dead too.

chola · Post by **chola** » 14 May 2020 03:50

abhik wrote:@chola The last MKI was delivered a few weeks back (viewtopic.php?p=2425643#p2425643), so thats dead too.

Is the idea for 50 extra MKIs actually going to Russia not HAL? How does that make any sense?

But even if the 50 additional Flankers did go to HAL we can and should make use of the line and eco-system after the last of the 50 like what the chinis did with the SU-27SK, the Dauphin and the Super Frelon. They never abandoned those lines and are making variants to this day.

For example, we could make an Indian two engine heavy fighter from that eco-system. Call it the Kaluku and license the AL-41 for it to keep Russians happy.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 14 May 2020 11:38

abhik wrote:@chola The last MKI was delivered a few weeks back (viewtopic.php?p=2425643#p2425643), so thats dead too.

12 More Su-30 MKI have been ordered so production will go atleast march/April 2021- HAl is pitching 60 more- I think for an upgraded version with AESA radar.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 14 May 2020 18:27

^^^
Can you post the source for the 12 additional order? TIA.

chola · Post by **chola** » 15 May 2020 00:31

Chinis flying their Y-20s with aid to their motley bunch of "allies."

Pakiland, of course

Thailand, a good nation that has fallen far under the generals

Myanmar

Uzbhekistan

Sri Lanka