Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Krita · Post by **Krita** » 08 Jun 2020 22:53

Sero survey results out, actual infection hundred to two hundred times of the reported numbers.

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation ... 53893.html

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 08 Jun 2020 23:29

Krita wrote:Sero survey results out, actual infection hundred to two hundred times of the reported numbers.

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation ... 53893.html

The spread in tier2 and tier3 cities is minimal. People in these cities should still follow social distancing and wear masks.

MH has 86000 cases. If we assume 50000 are from Mumbai, times hundred would be 5 million, times 200 would be 10 million. Mumbai is close to herd immunity. At least the hot spot areas would be. The others should still take care though. Delhi is following the path of Mumbai. I just wish both the cities made better arrangements to manage the surge in infections so more people could have been saved.

I think the Indian govt kind of knew this even before the serological tests and relaxed the lock down quite dramatically. Even the lock down implementation was quite wishy washy towards the end.

chola · Post by **chola** » 08 Jun 2020 23:56

^^^ So the bad news is actually good news if herd immunity is achieved!

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 09 Jun 2020 00:06

Krita wrote:Sero survey results out, actual infection hundred to two hundred times of the reported numbers.

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation ... 53893.html

Sounds almost too good to be true. Sample size seems relatively small, but it's good that the sampling was random. The LA antibody tests drew a lot of criticism for the sample selection method (based on facebook ads, with the attendant bias that people who participated were likely to be those who thought they'd had it, and wanted closure or confirmation).

If the above is true, it however raises some uncomfortable questions. What was the point of the lockdown? Doesn't seem to have prevented infection spread, and in the end, herd immunity won through. What was the death rate? Nominally 3%, but per this study, more like 0.03% to 0.015%. Extrapolating infection rate (20%) and death rate (0.03% to 0.015%) to the whole of India yields a prediction of 100,000 to 50,000 deaths. What was it that actually saved India? Inherent immunity, low exposure levels, high UV flux, all of the above?

With all that, I still say the nationwide lockdown was a good idea. All the above might be obvious in hindsight, but at the time, with an unknown evil, there was no other way. Kudos to Modi and to many of the state govts. But from now on, policy needs to be guided by empirical data, such as the above (would still be good to verify the above by other means).

If the above is true, then infection and deaths should start tapering off soon in Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, etc. All modeling and even measured numbers, have to be validated by the real-world phenomenon. This should never be forgotten. Empirical data on slope of daily deaths or slope of ICU admissions is still more valuable than the above, or any mathematical models.

What happens in rural India now? I think the theater will shift. If the above holds good there as well, that would be a great outcome.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 09 Jun 2020 00:17

^^There was never really any lock down after the first two phases going by social media. Lock down was still needed to not overwhelm the system. As it is Mumbai and Delhi are unable to handle the case load.

shaun · Post by **shaun** » 09 Jun 2020 00:27

sudarshan wrote:
Krita wrote:Sero survey results out, actual infection hundred to two hundred times of the reported numbers.

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation ... 53893.html
Sounds almost too good to be true. Sample size seems relatively small, but it's good that the sampling was random. The LA antibody tests drew a lot of criticism for the sample selection method (based on facebook ads, with the attendant bias that people who participated were likely to be those who thought they'd had it, and wanted closure or confirmation).

If the above is true, it however raises some uncomfortable questions. What was the point of the lockdown? Doesn't seem to have prevented infection spread, and in the end, herd immunity won through. What was the death rate? Nominally 3%, but per this study, more like 0.03% to 0.015%. Extrapolating infection rate (20%) and death rate (0.03% to 0.015%) to the whole of India yields a prediction of 100,000 to 50,000 deaths. What was it that actually saved India? Inherent immunity, low exposure levels, high UV flux, all of the above?

With all that, I still say the nationwide lockdown was a good idea. All the above might be obvious in hindsight, but at the time, with an unknown evil, there was no other way. Kudos to Modi and to many of the state govts. But from now on, policy needs to be guided by empirical data, such as the above (would still be good to verify the above by other means).

If the above is true, then infection and deaths should start tapering off soon in Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, etc. All modeling and even measured numbers, have to be validated by the real-world phenomenon. This should never be forgotten. Empirical data on slope of daily deaths or slope of ICU admissions is still more valuable than the above, or any mathematical models.

What happens in rural India now? I think the theater will shift. If the above holds good there as well, that would be a great outcome.

whether lock down was good or bad , the argument will continue but one need to factor that our medical infr would have been overwhelmed had there been no lockdown . what it essentially have done is lowered the inflection rate to equip ourself and better understand the virus , remember we didn't have enough testing kits or PPE then. Contact tracing was another aspects but alas many states floundered .Mortality rate was low because of lock down , example in Delhi with high case loads , infra is crumbling and mortality is above 20% in last one week . Its given our poor health care system can not deal with so many case loads and thus there will be increase in mortality rates .

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 09 Jun 2020 01:26

Some covid-19 patients taken off ventilators are taking days or even weeks to wake up https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... ged-comas/

media getting to know what most intensivists know since long, post critical care neurological dysfunction is seen in up to 1/3rd patients discharged from ITU. Same proportion of neurological syndromes being seen in Covid19 ventilated patients.

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 09 Jun 2020 02:34

Yeah not overwhelming the healthcare system is a good point, but if effectively there was no lockdown after the first two phases, then that either becomes moot, or the first two phases were ultra effective. Anyways, we are where we are, got to see how to use available info to make the best of it, going forward. If herd immunity is achieved without too much loss of life, then the much feared (by me, anyway) September wave might not be so bad.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 09 Jun 2020 03:20

Counting cars: Satellite images suggest coronavirus may have hit China last fall l ABC News

3 months earlier than we know of.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 09 Jun 2020 04:06

US accuses China of trying to steal vaccine formula from US, blocking international attempts to develop a vaccine

Aarvee · Post by **Aarvee** » 09 Jun 2020 05:52

sudarshan wrote:
Krita wrote:Sero survey results out, actual infection hundred to two hundred times of the reported numbers.

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation ... 53893.html
Sounds almost too good to be true. Sample size seems relatively small, but it's good that the sampling was random. The LA antibody tests drew a lot of criticism for the sample selection method (based on facebook ads, with the attendant bias that people who participated were likely to be those who thought they'd had it, and wanted closure or confirmation).

If the above is true, it however raises some uncomfortable questions. What was the point of the lockdown? Doesn't seem to have prevented infection spread, and in the end, herd immunity won through. What was the death rate? Nominally 3%, but per this study, more like 0.03% to 0.015%. Extrapolating infection rate (20%) and death rate (0.03% to 0.015%) to the whole of India yields a prediction of 100,000 to 50,000 deaths. What was it that actually saved India? Inherent immunity, low exposure levels, high UV flux, all of the above?

With all that, I still say the nationwide lockdown was a good idea. All the above might be obvious in hindsight, but at the time, with an unknown evil, there was no other way. Kudos to Modi and to many of the state govts. But from now on, policy needs to be guided by empirical data, such as the above (would still be good to verify the above by other means).

If the above is true, then infection and deaths should start tapering off soon in Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, etc. All modeling and even measured numbers, have to be validated by the real-world phenomenon. This should never be forgotten. Empirical data on slope of daily deaths or slope of ICU admissions is still more valuable than the above, or any mathematical models.

What happens in rural India now? I think the theater will shift. If the above holds good there as well, that would be a great outcome.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

Similar results from Japan. They estimate the actual exposure rate to be 396 to 858 fold more than qPCR positive. On one side, this could be good news, if the true infection rate is so high, the mortality is much lower. On the other hand, I would love to first see how reliable the antibody is in terms of cross-reactivity with circulating Cov and their IgGs.

Zynda · Post by **Zynda** » 09 Jun 2020 18:50

It seems like community transmission has started in Delhi. Also hearing/reading that community transmission means that contracting infection by breathing in virus rich air. Would a N-95 mask along with a face shield reduce chances of contracting infection if community transmission prevails in most of the Indian metro cities? I don't think GoI is gonna do a 2nd lock down and with out no drug or vaccine in sight for the next few months at least, just wondering how to improve chances of protection.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 09 Jun 2020 19:01

When HCQ prophylaxis is successful, why are we not rolling it out country wide to ppl who can take it?

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 09 Jun 2020 19:11

Aarvee wrote:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

Similar results from Japan. They estimate the actual exposure rate to be 396 to 858 fold more than qPCR positive. On one side, this could be good news, if the true infection rate is so high, the mortality is much lower. On the other hand, I would love to first see how reliable the antibody is in terms of cross-reactivity with circulating Cov and their IgGs.

Wow. The death rate of Japan is very low. They must be very healthy.

Zynda · Post by **Zynda** » 09 Jun 2020 20:14

NZ is Covid free! Still the country is not rolling back on border restrictions. I guess they don't want outsiders to bring in 2nd wave of infections. But with-in country all limitations have been removed. Even using of hand sanitizers isn't compulsory anymore although encouraged.

asgkhan · Post by **asgkhan** » 09 Jun 2020 20:32

Zynda wrote:It seems like community transmission has started in Delhi. Also hearing/reading that community transmission means that contracting infection by breathing in virus rich air. Would a N-95 mask along with a face shield reduce chances of contracting infection if community transmission prevails in most of the Indian metro cities? I don't think GoI is gonna do a 2nd lock down and with out no drug or vaccine in sight for the next few months at least, just wondering how to improve chances of protection.

Delhi-vaasis will die bro. It is given. They chose Khujli, now they gotta live with it.
I expect the rest of the country quarantine and block the roads from and to Dilli.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 09 Jun 2020 22:59

I don't want to jinx it but India has reported 3rd straight day of decline in both new cases and deaths. I truly hope this is not delayed or poor record keeping but a genuine trend of the infections slowing down. Coastal Karnataka has a large population who live/work in Mumbai, Pune, Thane, and 96% of the covid cases diagnosed in 2 districts in Coastal Karnataka are in people who recently came back from MH. Its likely that MH has been in a full-blown community spread for a while now.

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 09 Jun 2020 23:11

IndraD wrote: he certainly doesn't have virus. He is diabetic & Chronic bronchitic, a vulnerable group why would he delay getting tested by a day? He is setting stage to exit responsibility and blame it all on Modi.

You were absolutely right!!

Coronavirus Tests Negative for Kejriwal

New cases in the Pune Region
4-Jun : 176
5-Jun : 182
6-Jun : 275
7-Jun : 159
8-Jun : 181
9-Jun : 143

Total cases close to 8.5k, with around 66% recovered and 369 deaths.

I really do hope we get a breakthrough soon.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 10 Jun 2020 04:11

battle rages on HCQ
In a study published in The New England Journal of Medicine, researchers concluded that hydroxychloroquine, or HCQ, does not prevent infection with SARS-CoV-2 when administered to people soon after exposure to the virus. https://www.forbes.com/sites/coronaviru ... 2520663d4d
(study was not RCT)

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 10 Jun 2020 04:15

HCQ not dead yet https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... t-n1224586

statistically significant benefit when people took it immediately after exposure, it may still have a benefit for prevention prior to exposure," says Dr. Adrian Hernandez, principal investigator of the HERO research program coordinated by the Duke Clinical Research Institute. Compared to the Minnesota study, the HERO study will give the drug earlier and for a longer duration — 30 days instead of five days.

"This is a well done, really informative study," says Dr. Daniel Griffin, chief of infectious disease for UnitedHealth Group and ProHEALTH New York. Griffin is leading a two-pronged trial of hydroxychloroquine's effectiveness preventatively as well as in patients taking it within the first day or two of illness.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 10 Jun 2020 04:17

Could COVID-19 be prevented before it starts? Some researchers are looking for a way https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/heal ... 147715001/

Nitozoxanide: ivermectin like anti parasite being evaluated

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 10 Jun 2020 04:29

https://abcnews.go.com/International/sa ... d=71123270

Harvard study: Satellite images indicate virus was there in China since early fall

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 10 Jun 2020 19:19

IndraD wrote:Could COVID-19 be prevented before it starts? Some researchers are looking for a way https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/heal ... 147715001/

Nitozoxanide: ivermectin like anti parasite being evaluated

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/hea ... 147715001/

Could simple iodine help?
Dr. Alexandra Kejner was in her third trimester of pregnancy and struggling with insomnia this spring when it struck her that the iodine she uses to sterilize the nose and throat of her patients might help clear COVID-19.

"That's what I wash my hands with before surgery," said Kejner, an assistant professor at the University of Kentucky, adding it's also used for wound packing and sinus disease, and is relatively safe and affordable.

Kejner, the mother of a 2-month-old girl, has since launched a major study examining a specific concentration of iodine to prevent COVID-19. The aim is to coat the inside of the nose and mouth to prevent the virus from getting a foothold.

She's started to enroll 300 patients in the trial, as have collaborators at George Washington University and Louisiana State University.

Eligible participants use the carefully dosediodine nasal spray and gargle with it three times a day. Originally, they were going to be asked to use a nasal swab similar to the COVID-19 testing swabs, but Kejner’s husband tried it and vetoed it.

"No one will do this three times a day," he warned. So she changed the protocol.

The trial will include two groups of participants: patients hospitalized for non-COVID-19 reasons and health care workers exposed to COVID-19 patients. To enroll, each participant will be tested to ensure he or she is not infected and screened for allergies to iodine.

For health care workers, Kejner said she sees iodine as a "second line of defense" in case they don't have enough personal protective equipment or it fails to keep them safe.

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04364802
COVID-19: Povidone-Iodine Intranasal Prophylaxis in Front-line Healthcare Personnel and Inpatients (PIIPPI)

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 10 Jun 2020 19:58

IndraD wrote:
vijayk wrote:Looks like Kejriwal has symptoms. I am sure he will get plasma treatment and all.
he certainly doesn't have virus. He is diabetic & Chronic bronchitic, a vulnerable group why would he delay getting tested by a day? He is setting stage to exit responsibility and blame it all on Modi.

Kudos to you sir - you called it right. These low-lifers get together and think about "what order can i pass that LG will be forced to revert and then i can place all blame on the central govt." !!!!

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 10 Jun 2020 22:27

Does Indian coronavirus case data get reported with a demographic breakdown someplace, e.g. at least by age group, if not even gender / occupation ?

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 10 Jun 2020 23:49

Not that i have seen. I also dont know if we have a fixed 24 hr record keeping cycle because the numbers reset at different times on different days resulting in periodic spikes like today. As per covid19india, today was the the highest single day toll for both new cases and deaths at 10,834 and 356 respectively. I wish we could build huge walls around Mumbai, Pune, Chennai and Delhi - 4 cities that are contributing to nearly 70% of the cases.

SandeepA · Post by **SandeepA** » 10 Jun 2020 23:59

worldometer is actually showing 12K new infections with almost 4oo deaths. With the US numbers coming down too its only Brazil that is worse off. Looks like we will top that table soon enough

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 11 Jun 2020 00:19

With China and Iran outright lying about their numbers and countries like Pakistan/Bangladesh with no means to test and track, its quite possible that India will be in top 3 in total cases within the next week or two, although when you look at deaths/100k population or cases/100k population we are doing ok. This virus is truly difficult to understand, it seems to have spared South East Asia, Australia and New Zealand but has engulfed India, much of Europe, North and South America. There is disparity even within continents where Portugal seems have fared much much better than its next door Spain, similarly the middle east seems to have done well compared to south asia , Argentina looks relatively normal compared to Brazil which is now in a full blown crisis.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 11 Jun 2020 01:06

In Kejriwal's Delhi....Government hospitals are collapsing. Those who are taking Corona as a LENIENT matter, arrange in advance of about Rs. 5-6 lakhs per person (in case of emergency) for private hospitals.

In government hospitals dead bodies all around.... Horrible situations of hospitals exposed in this India TV news!

https://www.facebook.com/groups/MODI201 ... 023651146/

DavidD · Post by **DavidD** » 11 Jun 2020 02:14

IndraD wrote:battle rages on HCQ
In a study published in The New England Journal of Medicine, researchers concluded that hydroxychloroquine, or HCQ, does not prevent infection with SARS-CoV-2 when administered to people soon after exposure to the virus. https://www.forbes.com/sites/coronaviru ... 2520663d4d
(study was not RCT)

I've read that study, it's a RCT but only 16 out of 113 of the "positive" cases were actually tested for COVID. Poor data quality IMO prevents any serious consideration of its results.

chola · Post by **chola** » 11 Jun 2020 02:18

SandeepA wrote:worldometer is actually showing 12K new infections with almost 4oo deaths. With the US numbers coming down too its only Brazil that is worse off. Looks like we will top that table soon enough

We are not going to top the US. Unkil is at over 2 million and getting 20K new ones a day. And in two weeks, the consequences of the massed demonstrations and riots will come due.

If India gains two million to close that gap then it would be apocalypse. It will not happen.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 11 Jun 2020 04:38

SandeepA wrote:worldometer is actually showing 12K new infections with almost 4oo deaths. With the US numbers coming down too its only Brazil that is worse off. Looks like we will top that table soon enough

Sorry, I don't see those numbers on worldometer.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/india/

Added Later:

All right, found it.

Updates
12,375 new cases and 388 new deaths in India [source]

The source is given as https://www.mohfw.gov.in/ which gets its data from the official ICMR site http://covidindiaupdates.in/

According to the daily new cases graph down in the page, single day new cases have not crossed 10,000 yet.

Please follow the official site if you wan't numbers for India.

m_saini · Post by **m_saini** » 11 Jun 2020 05:19

The EU is officially calling China a disinformation source over coronavirus

In a new statement outlining its plans to combat COVID-19 falsehoods, the EU said "foreign actors and certain third countries, in particular Russia and China, have engaged in targeted operations and disinformation in the EU, its neighborhood, and globally."

Related link
Coronavirus: EU strengthens action to tackle disinformation

Vivasvat · Post by **Vivasvat** » 11 Jun 2020 06:59

hanumadu wrote: Please follow the official site if you wan't numbers for India.

Worldometer reflects the Statewise total on the official site, which differs from the national total displayed at the top of the official site.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 11 Jun 2020 07:44

Vivasvat wrote:
hanumadu wrote: Please follow the official site if you wan't numbers for India.
Worldometer reflects the Statewise total on the official site, which differs from the national total displayed at the top of the official site.

The state wise table shows 276583 as the total from the official state wise table.
https://www.mohfw.gov.in/

Worldometer is showing june 10th data which is not released officially yet. Daily new cases data of worldometer differs from official data even for previous days. I will wait for daily ICMR data.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Jun 2020 11:47

IndraD, Isn't povoidoine used as a pain killer in the mouth? It numbs the mouth.

Suraj, On Telegram, GOI updates all Covid-19 data everyday.

SandeepA · Post by **SandeepA** » 11 Jun 2020 17:12

chola wrote:
SandeepA wrote:worldometer is actually showing 12K new infections with almost 4oo deaths. With the US numbers coming down too its only Brazil that is worse off. Looks like we will top that table soon enough
We are not going to top the US. Unkil is at over 2 million and getting 20K new ones a day. And in two weeks, the consequences of the massed demonstrations and riots will come due.

If India gains two million to close that gap then it would be apocalypse. It will not happen.

2 months back imagining India topping Italy or Iran would have seemed like an apocalypse. We do have the population base to pose a threat to Unkil at the top of the table. Even if Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai taper down after a point there are other large population centers that can see a runaway spread. Topping that table is fine if we can control the all important 'death per million population' number. We are doing a much finer job with that so far although NaPak and B'desh (similar racial and population density profile) are not too far away again.
Overall i'd rate Japan, SoKo as handled this virus the best so far, only time will tell.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 11 Jun 2020 17:47

It is very distressing and depressing to see the numbers.

DrRatnadip · Post by **DrRatnadip** » 11 Jun 2020 18:01

ramana wrote:IndraD, Isn't povoidoine used as a pain killer in the mouth? It numbs the mouth.

Suraj, On Telegram, GOI updates all Covid-19 data everyday.

Povidon iodine / betadine is very broad spectrum antiseptic effective against viruses, bacteria and other pathogens.. ( Numbing agent is lignocain.. Betadine doesnt have numbing action).. Before every surgery area is painted with betadine and spirit to decontaminate it..

Using betadine as intranasal spray and gargles makes much sense.. If sufficient virucidal concentration can be maintained in upper respiratory tract ,it should help to prevent infection, at least in theory.. Betadine is cheap , fairly well tolerated , sensitivity reactions are rare.. If found effective it could also be used in asymptomatic carriers to reduce spread .. Betadine gargles are very effective in viral and bacterial upper respiratory infections like pharyngitis.. Repeated intranasal sprays will need well motivated individual though, as it can be uncomfortable..

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 11 Jun 2020 19:13

DrRatnadip wrote:
ramana wrote:IndraD, Isn't povoidoine used as a pain killer in the mouth? It numbs the mouth.

Suraj, On Telegram, GOI updates all Covid-19 data everyday.
Povidon iodine / betadine is very broad spectrum antiseptic effective against viruses, bacteria and other pathogens.. ( Numbing agent is lignocain.. Betadine doesnt have numbing action).. Before every surgery area is painted with betadine and spirit to decontaminate it..

Using betadine as intranasal spray and gargles makes much sense.. If sufficient virucidal concentration can be maintained in upper respiratory tract ,it should help to prevent infection, at least in theory.. Betadine is cheap , fairly well tolerated , sensitivity reactions are rare.. If found effective it could also be used in asymptomatic carriers to reduce spread .. Betadine gargles are very effective in viral and bacterial upper respiratory infections like pharyngitis.. Repeated intranasal sprays will need well motivated individual though, as it can be uncomfortable..

Good to hear. Thank you!

Another nasal spray

https://www.rxlist.com/propolis/supplements.htm

WHAT IS PROPOLIS?
Propolis is a resin-like material from the buds of poplar and cone-bearing trees. Propolis is rarely available in its pure form. It is usually obtained from beehives and contains bee products.

Propolis has a long history of medicinal use, dating back to 350 B.C., the time of Aristotle. Greeks have used propolis for abscesses; Assyrians have used it for healing wounds and tumors; and Egyptians have used it for mummification. It still has many medicinal uses today, although its effectiveness has only been shown for a couple of them.

Propolis is used for canker sores and infections caused by bacteria (including tuberculosis), by viruses (including flu, H1N1 "swine" flu, and the common cold), by fungus, and by single-celled organisms called protozoans. Propolis is also used for cancer of the nose and throat; for boosting the immune system; and for treating gastrointestinal (GI) problems including Helicobacter pylori infection in peptic ulcer disease. Propolis is also used as an antioxidant and anti-inflammatory agent.

People sometimes apply propolis directly to the skin for wound cleansing, genital herpes and cold sores; as a mouth rinse for speeding healing following oral surgery; and for the treatment of minor burns.