International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

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Gerard
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by Gerard »

Nine nuclear-armed nations spent an estimated $72.9 billion on their 13,000-plus atomic weapons in 2019, according to a new paper by the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN). At $35.4 billion in spending, the US accounts for nearly half the global total, ICAN says.

link to ICAN paper
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by Gerard »

France Test Fires A Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile In The Atlantic
The French Triomphant class nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) Le Téméraire test-fired an M51 submarine-launched ballistic missile in the Atlantic off of Finistère, France in the early hours of June 12th, 2020. Some sort of a test appeared to be in the works just three days ago when Le Téméraire was spotted sailing out of port with huge test instrumentation masts attached that are commonly fitted to submarines prior to developmental ballistic missile launches. Then, last evening, our good friend @aircraftspots began tracking a U.S. Air Force RC-135S Cobra Ball ballistic missile and rocket tracking aircraft flying out over the Caribbean. Not long after, a French Falcon 50 maritime patrol aircraft showed up in the area, indicating a launch was likely imminent.
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by Amber G. »

Meanwhile there are reports from Nordic nations (Netherlands who analyzed the data is also reporting this) that there is a increase level of radioactivity - some where in Western Russia there is a damaged fuel element at a nuclear power plant.
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by ArjunPandit »

Economist has an article on the fact taht US administration considered the resumption of nuclear testing in

On June 23rd the State Department told Congress that it suspected that Russia had conducted “nuclear weapons-related experiments that have created nuclear yield”, in violation of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (ctbt). It also said that excavation and other activity at China’s Lop Nur testsite “raise concerns regarding China’s adherence to its testing moratorium”
...
Most experts say the accusations are thin gruel. America itself does in Nevada much of what it says China is doing at Lop Nur. Moreover, all three countries conduct “subcritical” tests, in which there is no critical mass of plutonium, no chain reaction and therefore no yield. Under the ctbt, these are kosher. Some, however, can be outwardly indistinguishable from illicit tests with tiny yields. In 1997 a Russian “test” turned out to be an earthquake.
...
In May, according to the Washington Post, American officials considered conducting a “rapid test” to demonstrate the country’s nuclear prowess, with the intention of forcing Russia and China into trilateral nuclear talks, something that China has thus far resisted.

https://www.economist.com/united-states ... ar-testing
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by ricky_v »

On Tuesday 28 July 2020, we will celebrate the Start of Machine Assembly at ITER in the virtual presence of French President Emmanuel Macron and government leaders from the seven ITER Members.
vera_k
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by vera_k »

US gives first-ever OK for small commercial nuclear reactor

Wonder if this tech can be scaled down to fit into a backyard, and be competitive to replace the half dozen Tesla batteries required to power a modern home.
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by srikandan »

American start up called oklo claims to have an advanced fission plant that also does nuclear waste reprocessing.


https://twitter.com/oklo


https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/ ... sion-Plant
Oklo received a Site Use Permit from the U.S Department of Energy, successfully demonstrated prototype of its metallic fuel, was awarded access to recycled nuclear fuel from Idaho National Laboratory, and submitted the first advanced fission combined license application.
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by Lisa »

Could anybody in the know please comment on this, I am a lay person and do not quite understand the article.

Commercially viable electricity from nuclear fusion a step closer thanks to British breakthrough

https://news.sky.com/story/commercially ... h-12317089
Manish_Sharma
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by Manish_Sharma »

TWITTER

@Sjha1618

BTW, India's DAE held off on moving forward with the Jaitapur project all these years, because they wanted to first observe the performance of Taishan-I which is the first Framatome EPR to come online anywhere in the world. Jaitapur will host the same design.

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/140 ... 40226?s=19
kit
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by kit »

Manish_Sharma wrote:TWITTER

@Sjha1618

BTW, India's DAE held off on moving forward with the Jaitapur project all these years, because they wanted to first observe the performance of Taishan-I which is the first Framatome EPR to come online anywhere in the world. Jaitapur will host the same design.

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/140 ... 40226?s=19
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-57474384

EDF Energy confirmed that gases that had built up in a component of the plant were deliberately released.

A spokesperson said this was because of a fuel rod problem.

"We are not in a scenario of an accident with a melting core," an EDF spokesman who did not want to be named told AFP news agency.

"We are not talking about contamination, we are talking about controlled emissions."

It comes after CNN reported that the US government had been assessing reports of a leak at the Taishan plant.

The facility's Chinese part-owner, China Guangdong Nuclear Power Group, refuted claims of a leak on Monday.
kit
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by kit »

Lisa wrote:Could anybody in the know please comment on this, I am a lay person and do not quite understand the article.

Commercially viable electricity from nuclear fusion a step closer thanks to British breakthrough

https://news.sky.com/story/commercially ... h-12317089
the answer is here
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/viable-nucle ... akthrough/


Results from the UK Atomic Energy Authority's (UKAEA) MAST Upgrade experiment indicate the effectiveness of an innovative exhaust system designed to make compact fusion power plants commercially viable.
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by Lisa »

Kitji, Thank you very much.
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by Tanaji »

This was long in coming

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/wh ... reappshare

I am not sure if this is the same as what we have been trying without much success as per Dr. Bhabhas vision. Is molten salt the only option for thorium fuel? If so, it is maddening to see the Chinese get a leg up on yet another field where we were supposed to lead….
kit
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by kit »

Tanaji wrote:This was long in coming

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/wh ... reappshare

I am not sure if this is the same as what we have been trying without much success as per Dr. Bhabhas vision. Is molten salt the only option for thorium fuel? If so, it is maddening to see the Chinese get a leg up on yet another field where we were supposed to lead….
@ Tanaji ., the Chinks are using the local geothermal energy for molten salt unlike Indian tech. Look at the places where the reactors are based, doesnt look like they can replicate it anywhere they want... and I had posted this earlier their thorium tech is Russian !!
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by sanjaykumar »

You mean these reactors are situated on geological faults? Brilliant.
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by wig »

https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacifi ... ar-reactor

Why China is developing a game-changing thorium-fuelled nuclear reactor

extracts
A new page in the history of nuclear energy could be written this September, in the middle of the Gobi Desert, in the north of China. At the end of August, Beijing announced that it had completed the construction of its first thorium-fuelled molten-salt nuclear reactor, with plans to begin the first tests of this alternative technology to current nuclear reactors within the next two weeks.

Built not far from the northern city of Wuwei, the low-powered prototype can as yet only produce energy for around 1,000 homes, according to the scientific journal Nature.
reasons for the location
With molten-salt technology, "it is the salt itself that becomes the fuel", Sylvain David, research director at the French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) and nuclear reactors specialist, explained in a FRANCE 24 interview. The crystals are mixed with nuclear material – either uranium or thorium – heated to over 500°C to become liquid, and are then be able to transport the heat and energy produced.

Theoretically, this process would make the installations safer. "Some accident risks are supposedly eliminated because liquid burning avoids situations where the nuclear reaction can get out of control and damage the reactor structures," Jean-Claude Garnier added.

There's another advantage for China: this type of reactor does not need to be built near watercourses, since the molten salts themselves "serve as a coolant, unlike conventional uranium power plants that need huge amounts of water to cool their reactors", French newspaper Les Echos noted. As a result, the reactors can be installed in isolated and arid regions… like the Gobi Desert.
the risk appears to be that molten salt at high temp will corrode the pipes.
the benefit appears to be fissile Uranium which can be used for weapons
Among the three main candidates for nuclear reaction – uranium 235, uranium 238 and thorium – the first is “the only isotope naturally fissile”, Sylvain David explained. The other two must be bombarded with neutrons for the material to become fissile (able to undergo nuclear fission) and be used by a reactor: a possible but more complex process.

Once that is done on thorium, it produces uranium 233, the fissile material needed for nuclear power generation. That then becomes another problem with thorium: "The radiation emitted by uranium 233 is stronger than that of the other isotopes, so you have to be more careful," Francesco D'Auria warned.


The feasibility of molten-salt reactors is also questionable as it creates further technical problems. "At very high temperatures, the salt can corrode the reactor’s structures, which need to be protected in some manner," Jean-Claude Garnier explained.

The stakes are clearly high for the Chinese tests and they will be watched very closely around the world in order to see how Beijing hopes to overcome these obstacles. But even if China ends up claiming victory, they should not rejoice too quickly, Francesco D’Auria said: "The problem with corrosive products is that you don't realise their damage until five to 10 years after."

Moreover, the expert claims there is no reason to celebrate a nuclear reactor that not only produces energy, but also uranium 233. "This is an isotope that does not exist in nature and that can be used to build an atomic bomb," pointed out Francesco D'Auria.
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by NRao »

There Could Be a Nuclear Reactor in Your Backyard Soon
Over the last 30 years, almost no new nuclear power plants have been constructed within the U.S. The newest reactor to enter service is Tennessee's Watts Bar Unit 2, which began operation in June 2016. The next-youngest operating reactor is Watts Bar Unit 1, also in Tennessee, which entered service in May 1996.

Recently, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) approved designs by Portland, OR-based NuScale Power for the use of a new type of reactor called a small modular reactor (SMR). SMRs are intended to be built quickly in a factory rather than on site, and have a lower cost, produce much less power, and tend to be safer than traditional nuclear reactors.

NuScale

NuScale's SMR design is for a 9 feet (2.7 m) diameter by 65 feet (20 m) high reactor vessel, weighing 650 short tons (590 metric tons). The modules can be delivered by rail, barge, or even by truck, and NuScale's SMR will run on 4.95% enriched uranium-235 fuel assemblies that will need to be refueled every two years.

Image

............
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by Dilbu »

Just how many nuclear weapons does the U.S. have? State Department reveals number
WASHINGTON — In a reversal of Trump administration policy, the State Department has revealed the number of nuclear weapons in the U.S. stockpile, a disclosure that it said would aid global efforts to control the spread of such arms.
The number of U.S. nuclear weapons, including those on active status as well as those in long-term storage, stood at 3,750 as of September 2020, the department said Tuesday. That is down from 3,805 a year earlier and 3,785 in 2018.

As recently as 2003, the U.S. nuclear weapon total was slightly above 10,000. It peaked at 31,255 in 1967, in the middle of the Cold War.
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by Vicky »

kit wrote:
Tanaji wrote:This was long in coming

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/wh ... reappshare

I am not sure if this is the same as what we have been trying without much success as per Dr. Bhabhas vision. Is molten salt the only option for thorium fuel? If so, it is maddening to see the Chinese get a leg up on yet another field where we were supposed to lead….
@ Tanaji ., the Chinks are using the local geothermal energy for molten salt unlike Indian tech. Look at the places where the reactors are based, doesnt look like they can replicate it anywhere they want... and I had posted this earlier their thorium tech is Russian !!
This is all hype which changes nothing fundamental about MSBR tech.

The fundamental challenges of Molten Salt reactors i.e. metallurgy to prevent corrosion hasn't been resolved yet.
There is no point building prototypes if you haven't validated the metallurgy as you aren't going to get any new data from the reactor that you don't get in a Sodium Fast Breeder. This is why many including India are holding off on building MSBRs.
The Chinese are leaping by building prototype MSBRs and HTRs without solving the fundamental problems with both designs which is just a waste of money and time.

Anyone can build a prototype but the data they actually gain from that is important. BARC has already completed an MSBR 10 MWth design on paper but won't build it until they have confidence in the metallurgy. Many experiments are going on and testbeds working at BARC Mumbai, Vizag and IGCAR Kalpakkam to validate various metallurgies. BARC also has enough physics data for fast breeders to skip a few steps to arrive at a design which luxury the Chinese don't have.

As far as HTRs are concerned, Building HTRs isn't a problem - it's a very rudimentary design but no one including the Chinese have resolved the serious reliability/maintenance issues with such a design. Also HTRs will only be efficient for Hydrogen production whose demand isn't increasing fast enough to necessitate this. Germans have actually operated HTRs and found them to be unmaintanable and unreliable.

The Chinese are doing a lot of things but this doesn't mean what they are doing is far ahead of where we are.

All this is moot if the Chinese don't master traditional PWR and FBR designs even after these many years and so much money spent. Their current PWR and FBR designs are fully foreign although significant components are locally built. Chinese FBR test reactors are licensed Russian stuff. PWRs are ripoff French designs where French help is still required to build each one.

If Chinese really want to use thorium for MSBRs where are their reprocessing facilities, have they mastered it yet? How are you going to refuel the salts if you haven't mastered purification, salt re-enrichment and waste management. They will have to throw away the salt in their prototypes which will be an environmental disaster. These salts contain highly radioactive U233 and Pu239, reprocessing these salts safely is extremely fundamental before any MSBR tech is viable. Safety is also complicated here due to the risk of localised criticality if homogeneity isn't maintained and U233/Pu mix is highly radioactive and cannot be processed outside hotcells. Americans cancelled their R&D in the 70s in this tech because of these challenges.

It took India 25+ years of work to resolve Thorium waste/U-233 /Pu-239 waste reprocessing. Chinese haven't demonstrated any of these building blocks. They still apparently struggle with Plutonium reprocessing too as their designs are stuck in the 1960s tech which the Soviets originally shared with them. Solve the building blocks first.

BARC currently wants to focus on what's viable i.e. FBR and AHWR and not go on a wild goose chase of MSBR or HTR. BARC is keeping its feet wet though in both MSBR and HTR tech.

Both a 10 MWth IMSBR and a 40 MWth IHTR have already been designed and can go into build stage whenever BARC wants it. BARC is actually planning to jump to a 100 MWth IHTR as they are confident instead of a small 40 MWth if the reliability problems are resolved.


Our three stage program is viable with current tech and we should stick to it albeit while keeping our feet wet in new age tech.

Thorium can be utilised in many ways. MSBRs are the utopian version, FBR+AHWR are the steam punk version
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by Tanaji »

Vickyji

Many thanks for taking the pains to write up such a detailed post, much appreciated.
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by chetak »

The amerikis and the britshits were fully complicit in all this


https://carnegieendowment.org/2005/09/0 ... -pub-17420



A. Q. Khan Nuclear Chronology

MICHAEL LAUFER
SEPTEMBER 07, 2005

Summary: This is a summary of what we know about Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan’s decades long involvement in the illegal transfer of nuclear materials and technologies.

The complete extent of Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan’s decades-long involvement in the illegal transfer of nuclear materials and technologies is not known. The details are submerged in Khan’s work over the past thirty years, which has included both the development of Pakistan’s uranium enrichment capabilities and a complex international network of experts, suppliers, and front companies that have aided Iran, Libya, North Korea, and potentially others. Since we do not know exactly what Khan did, we cannot know when he did it. As more information is released from those who have questioned Khan and his network partners, a more complete image of the nuclear black market will emerge. This chronology summarizes what we now know.

Khan Builds His Base in Pakistan

Pre-1985: Khan’s early exposure to European technology and supply chains allow him to establish and develop uranium enrichment technologies in Pakistan. Knowledge of the technologies, and more importantly, the companies from which to obtain the necessary components set the foundation for how the future proliferation network would operate.

1936
• Khan is born in Bhopal, which is part of British India. Khan will immigrate with his family to Pakistan in 1952, several years after India and Pakistan are partitioned.

1961
• Khan moves to Europe to complete his studies, first in West Berlin and later at the Technical University in Delft, Holland, where he receives a degree in metallurgical engineering in 1967.

1972
• Khan receives Ph.D. in metallurgical engineering from the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium.
• May – Khan begins work at Physical Dynamic Research Laboratory (FDO), a subcontractor of Ultra Centrifuge Nederland (UCN). UCN is the Dutch partner in the Urenco uranium enrichment consortium.
• 8 May - Within one week of starting work at FDO, Khan visits the advanced UCN enrichment facility in Almelo, Netherlands to become familiar with Urenco centrifuge operations and the aspects relevant to his own work to strengthen the metal centrifuge components. Khan is not officially cleared to visit the facility, but does so many times with the consent of his employers.

Early 1970s
• Dutch intelligence begins to monitor Khan soon after he begins work at FDO, concerned by a series of inquiries about technical information not related to Khan’s own projects.

1974
• 18 May – India conducts its first nuclear test, a “peaceful nuclear explosion.
• September – Khan writes to Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto to offer his services and expertise to Pakistan.
• Late – Khan is tasked by UCN at Almelo with translations of the more advanced German-designed G-1 and G-2 centrifuges from German to Dutch, to which he has unsupervised access for 16 days.

Late 1970s and Early 1980s
• American intelligence officials convince Dutch authorities on two occasions not to arrest Khan for the purposes of monitoring his activities further.

1975
• August – Pakistan begins buying components for its domestic uranium enrichment program from European Urenco suppliers. S.A. Butt, a physicist in the Pakistani embassy in Belgium, contacts a Dutch company to obtain high frequency inverters, which are used to control centrifuge motors. Purchases accelerate in the following years and many components are secured from companies in the Netherlands that Khan is familiar with.
• October – Khan is transferred away from enrichment work with FDO as Dutch authorities become increasingly concerned over his activities. He is reportedly observed asking “suspicious questions” at a nuclear trade show in Switzerland.
• 15 December – Khan suddenly leaves FDO for Pakistan with copied blueprints for centrifuges and other components and contact information for nearly 100 companies that supply centrifuge components and materials.

1976
• Khan begins centrifuge work with the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC), headed by Munir Ahmad Khan.
• July – After conflicts at the PAEC, Prime Minister Bhutto gives Khan autonomous control over Pakistani uranium enrichment programs. Khan founds Engineering Research Laboratory (ERL) on July 31, which focuses exclusively on developing an indigenous uranium enrichment capability.
• The PAEC continues nuclear research and experiments in both weapons and power programs in competition with A.Q. Khan and will later develop Pakistan’s first generation of nuclear weapons.

1978
• ERL develops working prototypes of P-1 centrifuges, adapted from the German G-1 design Khan worked with at Urenco. Pakistan enriches uranium for the first time on April 4 at Khan’s enrichment facility at Kahuta.

1979
• April - Pakistan is cut off from economic and military assistance by the United States after U.S. intelligence learns of the recently commissioned enrichment facility at Kahuta. However, the strategic importance of Pakistan after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan ensures that no meaningful sanctions will be imposed. This policy is consolidated following the election of Ronald Reagan in 1980.

Early 1980s
• Khan acquires blueprints for the Chinese bomb that was tested in China’s fourth nuclear explosion in 1966.
• Khan is, reportedly, approached by an unknown Arab country (possibly Saudi Arabia or Syria) requesting nuclear assistance.

1981
• 1 May – ERL is renamed A.Q. Khan Research Laboratories (KRL) by President Zia ul-Haq in recognition of Khan’s contributions to the operational enrichment facility at Kahuta.

1983
• Khan is convicted, in absentia, in Dutch court for conducting nuclear espionage and sentenced to four years in prison.

1985
• Khan’s conviction is overturned based on an appeal that he had not received a proper summons. The Dutch prosecution does not renew charges because of the impossibility of serving Khan a summons given Pakistan security and the inability to obtain any of the documents that Khan had taken to Pakistan.

The Network Flows Both Ways

Mid-1980s to mid-1990s: Khan’s early successes with the Pakistani uranium enrichment program are followed by the more advanced design and technologies of the P-2 centrifuge, an adapted version of the German G-2 that can spin twice as fast as the previous P-1 design. Khan is left with an excess inventory of P-1 components and begins to purchase additional P-2 components that he will export through many of the same channels he had used to import centrifuge components. Khan makes nuclear sales in this period to Iran and offers technologies to Iraq and possibly others.

Mid 1980s
• Pakistan produces enough highly enriched uranium (HEU) for a nuclear weapon. KRL continues work on enrichment and is tasked with research and development of missile delivery systems.
• Khan, reportedly, begins to develop his export network and orders twice the number of components necessary for the indigenous Pakistani program. This transition from importer to exporter of centrifuge components is, apparently, completely missed by western intelligence services who believe Khan is only working on Pakistan’s domestic nuclear weapons program.

1986 to 1987
• Pakistan and Iran are suspected of signing a secret agreement on peaceful nuclear cooperation. Allegedly, the deal includes a provision for at least six Iranians to be trained in Pakistan at the Institute of Nuclear Science and Technology in Islamabad and the Nuclear Studies Institute. Iranian scientists might also receive centrifuge training at KRL.
• Khan is suspected of visiting the Iranian reactor at Bushehr in February 1986 and again in January 1987. These early interactions may have led directly to Khan’s assistance to Iran, but the content of the visits is unknown.

Late 1980s
• Khan and his network of international suppliers are reported to begin nuclear transfers to Iran. The period of cooperation is thought to continue through 1995 when P-2 centrifuge components are transferred. The Pakistani government claims no transfers occurred after the shipments of P-1 components and sub-assemblies from 1989 to 1991.
• German intelligence investigates potential Pakistani assistance to Iraq, and possibly Iran and North Korea, with processes related to melting uranium.

1987
• Khan is suspected of having made an offer to Iran to provide a package of nuclear technologies, including assistance for the difficult process of casting uranium metal. The price for the package is reported to be from the tens of millions to the hundreds of millions.
• Khan is believed to make a centrifuge deal with Iran to help build a cascade of 50,000 P-1 centrifuges. In addition, Iran may have received centrifuge drawings through an unknown foreign intermediary around this time.
• KRL begins to publish publicly available technical papers that outline some of the more advanced design features Khan has developed. The papers include information that would normally be classified in the U.S. and Europe and show that KRL is competent in many aspects of centrifuge design and operation. The papers also include specifications for centrifuges with maraging steel that can spin faster than earlier aluminum designs. Later, in 1991, KRL publishes details on how to etch grooves around the bottom bearing to incorporate lubricants. These technical developments are important for Khan’s P-2 centrifuges.

1988
• Iranian scientists are suspected of having received nuclear training in Pakistan.

1989
• Iran is suspected of receiving its first centrifuge assemblies and components around this time. The shipped components are likely older P-1 centrifuge components that Khan no longer has use for in Pakistan. Through 1995, Khan is reported to have shipped over 2000 components and sub-assemblies for P-1, and later P-2, centrifuges to Iran.

1990
• An Iraqi memo, found during inspections in 1995, indicates that Khan may have offered significant nuclear assistance to Iraq in late 1990. He offered to sell Iraq a nuclear bomb design and guarantee material support from Western Europe for a uranium enrichment program. Khan stated that any materials needed from Europe could be routed through a company he owned in Dubai and that a meeting with a friendly intermediary could take place in Greece. However, Iraq is believed to have turned down the offer, suspecting it to be a sting and no known follow-ups were made after the 1991 Gulf War. The investigation in the 1990s was inconclusive in its efforts to determine the authenticity of the memo.

1992
• Pakistan begins missile cooperation with North Korea. Within Pakistan, KRL is one of the laboratories responsible for missile research and will develop the Ghauri missile with North Korean assistance. This cooperation probably establishes the connections that Khan could have used to transfer nuclear technologies. However, very little is known about when any nuclear transfers began, what nuclear components might have been obtained by North Korea, and whether or not the Pakistani government was privy to Khan’s activities.

1994 or 1995
• More advanced components for P-2 centrifuges are suspected to have arrived in Iran. B.S.A. Tahir, a Sri Lankan business man and Khan’s chief lieutenant, told Malaysian police that Iran paid approximately $3 million for these parts.

The Network Expands

Mid-1990s to the Present: After initial nuclear transfers to Iran, A.Q. Khan appears to have expanded his network of customers to include Libya and North Korea. Khan’s network was based on a complex structure of international suppliers that shipped components unimpeded by ineffective controls. Details of Libya’s acquisition trace the network to Malaysia, Singapore, Turkey, South Africa, Switzerland, South Korea, Dubai, and possibly others. Khan appears to have been financially motivated and, reportedly, received over $100 million from sales to Libya alone. Many details of the sales to Libya have been uncovered since late 2003, when it decided to come clean about its nuclear program. However many aspects of the network remain mysterious, including network sources for some necessary centrifuge components and details about suspected transfers to North Korea.

Mid 1990s
• Khan starts travel to North Korea where he receives technical assistance for the development of the Ghauri missile, an adaptation of the North Korean No Dong design. Khan makes at least 13 visits before his public confession in 2004 and is suspected of arranging a barter deal to exchange nuclear and missile technologies, though the details of any nuclear transfers remain unknown. Khan travels with military personnel from KRL. These officials could have helped with the transfer of nuclear technology because programs under the Ministry of Defense were exempt from normal export controls. The military presence at KRL, including personnel who traveled to North Korea, suggests that the Pakistani government might have been aware of Khan’s activities. President Musharraf denies this claim.
• Khan is suspected to have met with a top Syrian official in Beirut to offer assistance with a centrifuge enrichment facility.

1996
• The Pakistani currency reserve crunch may motivate Khan to expand his nuclear network with sales to North Korea. The crisis might have made a barter agreement attractive to Pakistan to avoid defaulting on external debt. Visits of North Korean and Pakistani officials accelerate following the crisis, but it is not known if these meetings include discussions of nuclear transfers or deal exclusively with missile technologies.

1997
• Khan begins to transfer centrifuges and centrifuge components to Libya. Libya receives 20 assembled P-1 centrifuges and components for 200 additional units for a pilot enrichment facility. Khan’s network will continue to supply with centrifuge components until late 2003.
• Khan is suspected of beginning nuclear transfers to North Korea around this time, though the dates of the first transfers are highly uncertain. Transfers to North Korea are believed to have continued through 2003, but the Pakistani government claims these transfers ceased in 2001. Over this period, Khan may have supplied North Korea with old and discarded centrifuge and enrichment machines together with sets of drawings, sketches, technical data, and depleted uranium hexafluoride.
• December – Several reports state that Pakistan's then-Chief of Army Staff General Jehangir Karamat secretly visited Pyongyang. Khan has claimed that Karamat was aware of the deal between Pakistan and North Korea to exchange enrichment assistance for missile technologies. Karamat, now Pakistan's Ambassador to the United States, says that this information is incorrect. He says that he never visited North Korea and did not have any knowledge of the proliferation activity.

1998
• India detonates a total of five devices in nuclear tests on May 11 and 13.
• Pakistan responds with six nuclear tests on May 28 and 30.

1999
• Pakistani government releases an advertisement of procedures for the export of nuclear equipment and components. The ad lists equipment for sale, including gas centrifuges and magnet baffles for enriching uranium. Other advertisements from KRL are reported to include an “unsubtle drawing” of a mushroom cloud and vacuum devices that attach to centrifuge casings.

2000
• June – Peter Griffin sets up Gulf Technical Industries in Dubai, which serves as a front company for Khan’s network. B.S.A. Tahir will use Gulf Technical Industries as one of his front companies to order centrifuge components from Malaysia.
• September – Libya receives two P-2 centrifuges as demonstrator models and places an order for components for 10,000 more to build a cascade. Each centrifuge contains around 100 parts, implying approximately 1 million parts total for the entire P-2 centrifuge cascade.

2001
• Libya obtains 1.87 tons of uranium hexafluoride, the gas that is used to feed enrichment centrifuges. The amount is consistent with that required for a small pilot enrichment facility. The source of the uranium hexafluoride remains uncertain. In 2004, evidence emerges that North Korea might have supplied Libya with the material, which would be the first discovered transfer of nuclear material from North Korea to an A.Q. Khan network recipient. The evidence remains inconclusive, however, and authorities continue to suspect that the uranium hexafluoride came from Pakistan.
• March – Khan is forced into retirement. Khan refuses the compensatory position of “advisor to the chief executive” and is later given the ceremonial title of “Special Advisor to the Chief Executive on Strategic and KRL Affairs.” However, neither Khan nor the press use this title. President Musharraf has admitted that Khan’s suspected proliferation activity was a critical factor in his removal from KRL.
• Summer – American spy satellites detect missile components being loaded into a Pakistani cargo plane outside of Pyongyang. Intelligence services assume the cargo to be missile technology traded in direct exchange for nuclear technology, but no hard evidence exists.
• December – B.S.A. Tahir signs a $13 million contract with Scuomi Precision Engineering (SCOPE) in Malaysia for 25,000 aluminum centrifuge components. The components will be shipped to front companies in Dubai, including Gulf Technical Industries and SMB Computers. SCOPE representatives later acknowledge manufacturing parts for Tahir, but believed that they would be used in Dubai oil and gas industries.

Late 2001 or Early 2002
• Libya receives blueprints for nuclear weapons plans. The plans are reported to be of Chinese origin with Chinese notes in the margins. There is reported to be a note on the blueprints that “Munir’s bomb would be bigger,” possibly a reference to Munir Ahmad Khan of the PAEC, who was in competition with A.Q. Khan to develop a Pakistani bomb.

2002
• December – Shipments begin from SCOPE of aluminum centrifuge components. Four shipments are believed to have been sent from Malaysia to Dubai before August 2003, en route to Libya.

2003
• Spring – The State Department announces some sanctions against KRL, citing illegal missile transactions. The State Department also states that it has insufficient evidence to issue sanctions for illegal nuclear transactions.
• April – German authorities intercept a ship in the Suez Canal with a large cargo of strong aluminum tubing en route to North Korea. The tube specifications suggest that they are intended for use as outer casings for P-2 centrifuges.
• October – The German cargo ship BBC China is intercepted en route to Libya with components for 1,000 centrifuges. The parts were manufactured in Malaysia by SCOPE and shipped through Dubai.
• December – Libya renounces its nuclear weapons program and begins the process of full disclosure to the IAEA, including the declaration of all foreign procurements.

2004
• 4 February – Khan makes a public confession on Pakistani television (in English) of his illegal nuclear dealings. Khan claims that he initiated the transfers and cites an “error of judgment.” He is pardoned soon after by President Musharraf and has been under house arrest since. The Pakistani government claims that Khan acted independently and without state knowledge.
• March – A container aboard the BBC China (the ship that was previously intercepted) arrives in Libya with one additional container of P-2 centrifuge components. Colonel Qaddafi reports the arrival to American intelligence and the IAEA. The Libyans warn American officials that not all of the components from Libya’s orders had arrived and some might still show up in the future.


Chronology by Michael Laufer at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
hnair
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by hnair »

Last time it was this exciting was the whole Cold Fusion thingy

US scientists boost clean power hopes with fusion energy breakthrough

US government scientists have made a breakthrough in the pursuit of limitless, zero-carbon power by achieving a net energy gain in a fusion reaction for the first time, according to three people with knowledge of preliminary results from a recent experiment.
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by Amber G. »

^^^^ FWIW: a few point:
Remarkable achievement but unlikely to lead to anything practical IMO.
Anyway from what I see:
- The overall system efficiency (wallplug efficiency) is less than 1%.
- Nobody thinks this form of fusion (laser-driven ICF on tiny, exquisite fuel capsules) is a viable candidate for energy production.
- NIF is basically a playground for nuclear weapons designers. (In practical terms, detonating mini “clean” fusion bombs in giant underground salt caverns to produce electricity, at least to me, is not that practical --- Of course I may be wrong so let us see and wait..
(If you have not clicked on the link and read it )
Image
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by Amber G. »

^^^ More data and lot of excitement (in mainstream media) too. DOE (at Livermore Lab) are making it a big story --s an announcement that has "been decades in the making" and "breakthrough". To me (as a nuclear physicist), it is certainly a (big) breakthrough for US's Defense and nuclear weapons but (in my humble opinion after just reading what I can up to now) I think it will take a long of work before it could be used for "clean power".

Anyway here is the announcement- from DOE

After I read a little more about it, I may put some of my perspective here but meanwhile some impressions:
- US government to share this technology with academia and fast-track commercialization.
- Team used 2.15 MJ (Mega Jules) of laser energy to compress a deuterium-tritium target from the size of a basketball to the size of a pea.
Output energy was 3.05MJ (+41.8%.)
- But they used about 500 MJ of energy into those lasers ..(So as I posted in previous post, the efficiency - if you calculate for "clean power" is less than 1%)

Big breakthrough no doubt, but it remains to be seen (or I have not yet read about it) how in *near* future it would be practicle.
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by Amber G. »

Xpost
^^^A good less than 2 minute video to explain the basic of the breakthrough..

[/quote]
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by MeshaVishwas »

NUKE PLOT SMASHED Deadly shipment of uranium from Terroristan seized at Heathrow en route to Iranians based in UK sparking terror probe- The Sun
COUNTER-terror cops and security services are investigating after a deadly shipment of uranium was seized at Heathrow.

The undeclared nuclear material can be used in a dirty bomb.

It was destined for Iranian nationals in the UK, originated from Pakistan and arrived on a flight from Oman.

A source said: “The race is on to trace everyone involved.”

The package suspected of being smuggled to UK-based Iranians arrived in the hold of a passenger jet.

Specialist scanners detected the potentially-lethal uranium as it was ferried to a freight shed, triggering alarms.
Border Force agents swooped and isolated the unregistered shipment in a dedicated radioactive room.

Counter-terror police were alerted and a security probe launched into who sent the cargo.

It originated from Pakistan and arrived at Terminal 4 on an Oman Air jet from Muscat.

Cops were understood to be targeting an Iran-based firm with UK premises where the material was due to go to mystery recipients. No arrests have been made.
Officials will want to rule out any fears that a dirty bomb — a mixture of explosives with radioactive power — was being built here.

The suspected plot was smashed on December 29 and a Heathrow source told The Sun: “The race is on to trace everyone involved with this rogue non-manifested package.
Mean-e-while, the voice of the paedos, British Bull*hit Corp is already mobilized to save the turd it created: Terroristan
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by Amber G. »

First Small Modular Nuclear Reactor has been certified for operation by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The NuScale reactor will produce 50 megawatts, 12 of them can be at one site, enough for 780,000 homes.

First small modular reactor gets certification from Nuclear Regulatory Commission
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by Amber G. »

Some may find reading about this story - Jack ReVelle found and defused two nuclear bombs that accidentally fell on North Carolina in around 1961. . He died, quietly, 3 years ago today. Here’s his story:https://www.ncrabbithole.com/p/jack-rev ... w-obituary

(Basic elements of he story are well known).
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by Jay »

https://apnews.com/article/georgia-nucl ... 9115e88a64

It finally happened. I started following this 15 years ago and after a 7 year delay with $17bil over spend it finally is here. What a shit show this project has been and in my opinion this is a text book case of how not to do big ticket infra projects.

Expanding the Vogtle nuclear power plant in Georgia with two new reactors has turned into a financial disaster for the utility, state and customers. It has also literally bankrupted Westinghouse, the primary contractor.

Unfortunately this isn't the only new nuclear project in the US and Europe suffering from similar massive cost overruns and schedule slips. That is a primary reason why the industry has been in decline in this century. According to the article 24 other reactor projects proposed have been shelved as a result, including one in South Carolina that was partially built and $9 billion had already been spent on.
They’re the first U.S. reactors built from scratch in decades — and maybe the most expensive power plant ever.

Construction delays drove Westinghouse Electric Co., a titan of American industrial history, into bankruptcy

Currently, the owners are projected to pay $31 billion in capital and financing costs,

Japan’s Toshiba Corp., which then owned Westinghouse, paid $3.7 billion to the Vogtle owners to walk away from a guarantee

Work began with incomplete designs and managers repeatedly failed to realistically schedule tasks. Experienced workers were in short supply and defective work often had to be redone. Workers quit for other jobs and the COVID-19 pandemic led to high absenteeism.

Calculations show Vogtle’s electricity will never be cheaper than other sources Georgia Power could have chosen, even after the federal government reduced borrowing costs by guaranteeing repayment of $12 billion

Georgia Power will collect $4.1 billion in advance charges, or $913 for every ratepayer. Some cooperative customers are also paying — nearly $500 million through March.

American utilities have heeded Vogtle’s missteps, shelving plans for 24 other reactors proposed between 2007 and 2009. Two half-built reactors in South Carolina were abandoned.
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by Cyrano »

There is a reason for it, explained by some French pro-nuclear expert (can't recollect who exactly), which I believe might be true for US as well.

When the anti-nuclear energy movements took off big time during the past decades, and stoked exaggerated fears of disasters citing Chernobyl, Fukushima etc., the govts of the day tried to assuage those fears and calm down the general public by creating more oversight bodies for safety and standards, and in an effort to be transparent, inculded some of the anti-nuclear movement's top dogs in those bodies as well, irrespective of their qualifications or expertise. Over the years, these people dominated these safety and standards bodies by numbers and activism to push these standards and inspections to more and more unobtainable levels, thus increasing the cost and timelines of any new project way beyond what is economically feasible. Thus, from the inside, they have used the system to ensure new projects never see completion or become viable.

France's EPR reactors took decades to build and not fully operational even today, but the Chinese built 2 ERPs with the same design and some degree of consulting help, using their own technicians and workers, most of whom had no prior experience in the domain, and commissioned them in just a few years. Because they are not weighed down by overburdening layers of regulation, standards and inspections.

If there are any similar voices elsewhere, please so share.
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by sanman »

Are the Russians getting ready to resume nuclear testing?

Can they just do that?
Aren't there treaties to be considered? Are they going to withdraw from those?



https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/secur ... -test-site

Nukes have always been Pak's key defense - its way of leveling the playing field (besides terrorism), when it can't compete in other areas of military competition.
Even North Korea likewise likes to launch missiles and test bombs in order to shake up the West and send strong signals that it should be taken seriously
Likewise, Russia is at a disadvantage in competing with the West militarily.
Would it therefore fall back on nuclear testing as its form of muscle-flexing, to pressure the West?

Also, how would China feel about this?
Would they use the opportunity to test, too? Would North Korea do so?
If such tests were to happen, then shouldn't we also test?
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by sanman »

I posted my same comments above elsewhere, and got this response:
49thDivision wrote:Yes. I have been advocating for this for a while.

The Russians will 100% test a nuclear weapon very soon - the West has crossed all their red lines so far with no response, and the Russians are increasingly at risk of having their nuclear deterrent rendered unable to deter because nobody takes them seriously.

A nuke test is a great way to signal their intent - 'don't push us.'

When this happens, China will also test, taking advantage of the window of opportunity and citing the Russian precedent. North Korea too, definitely.

And we must as well. All that I have heard and read about our nuclear stockpile indicates that we have fairly viable designs for up to 100-150 kilotons, but we need the data a test would give us to scale that up further. It would also be useful for signalling purposes.

We should be ready to test as soon as Russia/China do. Unlike them, we would be breaking no agreement, as we have not signed the CTBT - however, we will need to smooth things over with the Americans to prevent them suspending nuclear cooperation.


My response:

Not just US nuclear cooperation, but there's also the fighter engine deal, etc at risk. But hey - priorities, y'know? Only robust nuke capabilities will keep the Chinese on their side of the line, in spite of their salami-slicing. Fighter jets simply aren't enough to do that.

If USA can't respect India's need to deter China, then what can they realistically expect from us as a Quad partner?

If even just the Russians test, we have enough cover to do what we need to do. North Korea would probably join in at that point (perhaps with a thermonuclear test). But I'm not sure Pakistan would be able to do much, since they're too economically vulnerable, and they'd probably need tech transfer to do a thermonuclear test.

Btw, after our Pokhran-2, there was the Kargil invasion - so we'd have to be on guard against a similar suckerpunch from Pak or China following a Pokhran-3. Reason Musharraf did Kargil was because Pak nuclear tests put them in a tough position internationally, where they felt they had to grab J&K sooner rather than later. So we'd have to watch for comparable stunts by neighbors following Pokhran-3.


Their response to my response:
49thDivision wrote: I agree. And with regard to the US, I think they wouldn't cut us off provided we sent a few sacrifices their way to keep them quiet - buy some Patriots, sign some LEMOA/COMCASA-type agreements, and so on. Or, more seriously, dropping Russia as a partner - 'if we keep quiet about this, you must side with us' sort of deal.

I think it's worth it in both cases. As you say, our nuclear deterrent is what keeps China at bay - in the future, it may also keep the US at bay. It is above any other considerations.
My further response:

Ukraine and Taiwan situations are imposing heavy constraints on Washington right now. We have a lot more leverage now than we did in 1998. Ironically, the same peculiar Atlanticist fixations of the current Whitehouse that's put them on the road to war against Russia in Ukraine (ie. Nuland et al) may help keep them from diverting their attentions elsewhere towards us in response to our N-test. So if we throw her some bone on Ukraine/Russia issue, then maybe it will pacify her enough to leave us alone.
Note: China would be p!$$ed off if that happens, and would be sure to try some further Kargil/Galwan/whatever stunt in return. Xi would go full Musharraf on us.
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by bala »

Favorite topic: How Pakistan made nuclear bomb thanks to CIA, China, Mullahs, Opium & a secret bank (BCCI)..Hindi aur Angrez main hai

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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by Amber G. »

Breaking News which got my attention: A major explosion has occurred in Dera Ghazi Khan, Southern Punjab Province, Pakistan. The nature of explosions is not known. Dera Ghazi has a uranium exploration facility.
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by Rakesh »

Amber G. wrote: 06 Oct 2023 18:42 Breaking News which got my attention: A major explosion has occurred in Dera Ghazi Khan, Southern Punjab Province, Pakistan. The nature of explosions is not known. Dera Ghazi has a uranium exploration facility.
VIDEO: https://x.com/FrontalForce/status/17102 ... 40854?s=20 ---> Locals are fleeing the area after suspected nuclear disaster in Pakistan.

VIDEO: https://x.com/FrontalForce/status/17102 ... 91886?s=20 ---> Breaking: Drone attack may be a reason behind the huge blast in the Nuclear Facility of Pakistan Army in DG Khan. As per locals, large number of security forces and ambulances and fire fighting vehicles are moving towards the facility. Locals are asked to leave. As many Pak awam are saying its a breaking of sound barrier, why so many ambulances & fire brigades called in?

VIDEO:https://x.com/FrontalForce/status/17102 ... 44074?s=20 ---> Pakistan media has also reported on DG Khan explosion. Now Pak has censored the media. The reporter can be heard saying that the explosion was so huge that it was heard till many kms & shattered windows/walls of homes.

https://x.com/FrontalForce/status/17102 ... 63187?s=20 ---> 2 theories currently ongoing in Pakistan regarding this incident:

1. A failed missile test of Shaheen missile led to loud explosion

2. A drone attack was carried out on Pak nuclear plant in DG Khan which led to explosion

VIDEO: https://x.com/OsintUpdates/status/17102 ... 86632?s=20 ---> Pakistan's test of the Shaheen-III missile goes wrong. Missile hits Nuclear Facility in DG Khan resulted in a huge sound which was heard in the 20 km range: Local Journalist Source.

Internet services in the area have been suspended on orders of the Pakistan Army, media entry has been barred and people have been asked to stay inside their homes.
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by vimal »

^^ Made in China maal, had to happen eventually
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Re: International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

Post by bala »

Recently the Chinese nuclear submarine sank killing everyone. Whether Shaheen missile test or some drone, we don't know the exact causes, Pukes are circling the drain very quickly. The Pak Army is in charge of everything military, civilian, judiciary and more and that is a recipe for disasters untold.
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