MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

[khan]

The IAF cannot replace 272 Su-30s with F-15s (or any plane for that matter) overnight. By the time those planes come and pilots are trained, the war will be over.

I know, that is why I said "longer term".

[Rakesh]

You said ---> "Right now, it would be really nice to have a plane load of the latest AAMRAAM missiles on the way and some 200 odd F-15's inducted instead of those SU-30's with uncertain BVR missiles."

Kindly define longer term and right now

[Rakesh]

[some 200 odd F-15's inducted instead of those SU-30's.

Uhh why exactly? Or have you never heard of Cope India?

[khan]

Define longer term

From the day this conflict ends to the day China isn't a threat anymore. It will take time (perhaps decades) to make the transition, but it makes no sense to base the entire defense infrastructure on Russian maal when you aren't assured emergency weapons when you need them.

Uhh why exactly? Or have you never heard of cope India?

At Cope India I don't think either side exposed their entire capability - and this is not about just one military exercise. This is about access to an ecosystem. If the Indian military were based on US equipment (instead of Russian - who aren't reliable allies here), India would be able to sustain a long drawn out war with the Chinese, the supply of weapons and munitions would be virtually bottomless.

It is obviously nice and important to have a domestic MIC - but from the perspective of sustaining a war, it is nice to have allies and I think as a matter of policy, India should make sure even if 100% indigenization is possible, say 30% of the kit be sourced from Western allies, so that supply pipeline is available.

[khan]

You said ---> "Right now, it would be really nice to have a plane load of the latest AAMRAAM missiles on the way and some 200 odd F-15's inducted instead of those SU-30's with uncertain BVR missiles."

Kindly define longer term and right now

This is the entire context:

Longer term, all of your favorite Russian kit needs to be retired & replaced with either Desi maal or American maal - right now, it would be really nice to have a plane load of the latest AAMRAAM missiles on the way and some 200 odd F-15's inducted instead of those SU-30's with uncertain BVR missiles.

"Longer Term" = 3-10 years after this is over
"right now, it would" = If this situation were to reoccur (which it will knowing the Chinese), it would be very nice to have a virtually unlimited supply of the best munitions in the world.

[Rakesh]

From the day this conflict ends to the day China isn't a threat anymore. It will take time (perhaps decades) to make the transition, but it makes no sense to base the entire defense infrastructure on Russian maal when you aren't assured emergency weapons when you need them.

Indeed. It makes no sense to base the entire defense infrastructure on any one nation. Russia, France, USA or whoever else.

The decades long transition is what the MMRCA contest is there for. Everyone and their uncle is participating in the contest. If the American planes make the cut, then surely the IAF will fly them.

At Cope India I don't think either side exposed their entire capability - and this is not about just one military exercise. This is about access to an ecosystem. If the Indian military were based on US equipment (instead of Russian - who aren't reliable allies here), India would be able to sustain a long drawn out war with the Chinese, the supply of weapons and munitions would be virtually bottomless.

It is obviously nice and important to have a domestic MIC - but from the perspective of sustaining a war, it is nice to have allies and I think as a matter of policy, India should make sure even if 100% indigenization is possible, say 30% of the kit be sourced from Western allies, so that supply pipeline is available.

There will be no long drawn out war with either China or for that matter, even Pakistan. This is not 1948, 1962, 1965, 1971 or even 1999. Today's wars will be quick and fast and the outcome will be known within 48 - 72 hours. It is just the nature of warfare today. The endless supply of weapons and munitions is a moot point in this context. After the first serious full scale conflict, the result will be there for everyone to see. Economically as well, endless full blown conflict is not sustainable.

What is happening at the border now cannot be termed as full blown conflict.

"Longer Term" = 3-10 years after this is over
"right now, it would" = If this situation were to reoccur (which it will knowing the Chinese), it would be very nice to have a virtually unlimited supply of the best munitions in the world.

3 - 10 years is what the MMRCA contest is envisaged to take. I remember the gleeful laugh some on BRF were having when the so-called Rafale Scam went to the Supreme Court. Now thanks to RaGa, he has pooch screwed the situation for all the OEMs in the contest. The MoD will be doubly careful in how the MMRCA contest will unfold. And we all know how long this contest will take as a result of this. And after two verdicts which supported the Govt over the Rafale deal, RaGa still believes there is a scam in the deal.

Imagine what will happen if the Govt actually circumvented the MMRCA process and went in for an immediate deal with any nation for a new fighter type? The only exception to this is acquiring fighters presently in service i.e. like the 21 MiG-29s from Russia or additional Su-30MKIs or the IAF examining ex-French Air Force Mirage 2000 air frames.

The problem with "right now" is that none of the planes the IAF operates is compatible with the virtually unlimited supply of the best munitions in the world. Raytheon will never allow to mount AMRAAMs and/or AIM-9s on Su-30MKIs or MiG-29UPGs. And Sukhoi and Mikoyan will put up a similar fight as well. With the Mirage 2000, the MICA is there. With the Rafale, the Meteor is there. Will Dassault and Raytheon agree to mount AMRAAMs on them? The only planes that are left is the Jaguar and the MiG-21 BISON. Let me venture an educated guess and say that is unlikely to happen.

And neither can NaMo ask for American fighters (or any new fighter type) to arrive by waving a magic wand. There has to be base infrastructure to support these new aircraft. There has to be a trained pool of ground personnel to maintain these planes. There has to be a trained pool of qualified pilots to fly these planes. This takes a considerable length of time and time is not something India has the luxury of right now.

So we are back to square one then?

Rather than waste money on shiny phoren fighters, it would be nice if the following happened right away (as in contract signing);

1) Additional C-130s, preferably the KC-130 variant
2) Additional CH-47 Chinooks
3) Additional P-8Is (4 more on order + more planned)
4) Additional MH-60Rs (double the order from 24 to 48)
5) Purchase of G700 platform for more Netra AEW&C aircraft
6) Armed drones i.e. Sea Guardians

This would be a better way to spend the little that is available versus a white elephant project called MMRCA. And I am pretty confident that you know that all the above platforms come from the US.

What the armed forces need *RIGHT NOW* is the ability to move and exploit men and material rapidly into any potential conflict zone.

And nobody does strategic/military lift like the Americans. Not even my philanthropic friends from La France can do that. And India operates (or will operate) all the above platforms, with the exception of 5 and 6. It makes perfect sense to order more of them.

[Cain Marko]

At Cope India I don't think either side exposed their entire capability - and this is not about just one military exercise. This is about access to an ecosystem. If the Indian military were based on US equipment (instead of Russian - who aren't reliable allies here), India would be able to sustain a long drawn out war with the Chinese, the supply of weapons and munitions would be virtually bottomless.
.

So if both sides were nanga in CI why were the teens the only ones looking like that? Hainji? Mki came out looking fully dressed with 3 piece suit. Bilkul dhularaja!

As far as eco system goes, this has its own problems and can be quite detrimental to indigenous programs.

If an American fighter has to be bought, it should be a stealth bird as a pure silver bullet force. That's it. Otherwise the rafale continues to be the best 4 gen platform.

As far as long drawn out wars are concerned, a russki, French and Israeli combo has worked in the past quite effectively. The only problems came after fsu broke up and upa negligence in the last decade. But this has been rectified to some extent since the current admin took over. The idea that US is a more reliable war partner is simplistic. If India doesn't have money to pay, the supplies won't happen. If India conducts an independent fp, supplies might be restricted. These are serious issues that need to be sorted out before India can just up end it's traditional defence relationships.

Suggesting that the MKI is some piece of scrap compared to fetishised uber teens is ridiculous and disses the genius of the people who helped create such an amazing fighter and those who fly it so effectively.

[khan]

Rakesh - yes I agree. Decades have passed since the last IAF fighter purchase (bar Rafale - which is also a decades old decision), but point is - if we had to do this again, one big factor that should be considered is compatibility with the enormous amount of NATO standard ordinance out there. I am happy to see to see India choose the Apache helicopter - with has battle tested hellfire missiles among other things that can be ordered by the planeload (from US Armed forces stock if necessary) for contingencies like these. Similarly, I am also happy to see M777 howitzers - with precision Excalibur ammunition (which hopefully is currently being ordered by the planeload) and will make a difference in the current conflagration. All this is in addition to the transport & surveillance aircraft you mentioned.

Hopefully, going forward GOI will make sure that these types of acquisitions are not done from the Russians for reasons I will make clear later.

I also wanted to make another point - you said

There will be no long drawn out war with either China or for that matter, even Pakistan. This is not 1948, 1962, 1965, 1971 or even 1999. Today's wars will be quick and fast and the outcome will be known within 48 - 72 hours. It is just the nature of warfare today. The endless supply of weapons and munitions is a moot point in this context. After the first serious full scale conflict, the result will be there for everyone to see. Economically as well, endless full blown conflict is not sustainable.

IMO this is a very dangerous assumption. Once conflict starts, it is very hard to stop. If IA does something & wins, will Xi sit there & lick his wounds or will he escalate further and try to salvage some H&D? Who knows how far this is going to go & how long this is going to last. But one thing is for sure, if India used Western ordinance - running out of AAM's or running out of missiles would not be an issue - there would be many able & willing allies willing to help India out (even out of their own stocks).

So if both sides were nanga in CI why were the teens the only ones looking like that? Hainji? Mki came out looking fully dressed with 3 piece suit. Bilkul dhularaja!

You are missing the forest for the trees here. This isn't about one exercise or Aircraft X better than Aircraft Y. This is about access to war stores for a conflict that could last months & having (say) R-77 as your primary BVR AAM is not smart when you are not assured a supply of them when you need them.

As far as eco system goes, this has its own problems and can be quite detrimental to indigenous programs.

Whether the eco-system is American or Russian - I don't understand how this affects indigenous programs.

If an American fighter has to be bought, it should be a stealth bird as a pure silver bullet force. That's it. Otherwise the rafale continues to be the best 4 gen platform.

I agree, at this point, things have progressed too far.

As far as long drawn out wars are concerned, a russki, French and Israeli combo has worked in the past quite effectively. The only problems came after fsu broke up and upa negligence in the last decade. But this has been rectified to some extent since the current admin took over. The idea that US is a more reliable war partner is simplistic. If India doesn't have money to pay, the supplies won't happen. If India conducts an independent fp, supplies might be restricted. These are serious issues that need to be sorted out before India can just up end it's traditional defence relationships.

Suggesting that the MKI is some piece of scrap compared to fetishised uber teens is ridiculous and disses the genius of the people who helped create such an amazing fighter and those who fly it so effectively.

Three of things about this:

#1. the US has much deeper pockets than anyone else & they have an interest in helping India defend against China. If the balloon goes up, I am sure they will have no problems making very long-term loans to supply India with what is needed to make sure India comes up on top. The 10 year Treasury bill has an effective interest rate of 0.66% per-annum last I checked a few days ago, 30-year rate is less than 4% per-annum - it will not cost them anything to do this - these are market rates, all they have to do is assume the credit risk, which they already do for other types of sales via instruments like the Exim bank.

#2. Will the Russians who are "neutral" even sell India anything in this type of crisis with China? If open hostilities break out, will the Russians supply (say) more R-77 missiles?

#3. I am not knocking SU-30 or any pilot flying them, I am just pointing out the deficiencies in the Russian eco-system. It has nothing to do with the plane. You have eco-system (a) you can get virtually unlimited war supplies, on very competitive rates, from a very motivated ally with whom you have a shared enemy or (b) the Russian eco-system - who apart from being routinely unable to fulfill their contract obligations might not even want to supply anything when supplies are needed most.


Hope this makes sense. I am not attacking anything or anyone, I am just trying to make the point, that India might want to transition off the Russian ecosystem as soon as possible.

[ldev]

#2. Will the Russians who are "neutral" even sell India anything in this type of crisis with China? If open hostilities break out, will the Russians supply (say) more R-77 missiles?

Boss, the Russians have 2 kinds of R-77s, one for the Russian Air Force and then they have an "export" model which they sell to everyone from China and India to Ethopia to Uganda to Yemen. That was the case with the original R-77, export model is the RVV-AE. And for the supposedly new longer range RVV-SD which India may have got after Balakot last year, the domestic Russian Air Force model is RVV-77-1. They have got better seekers for the domestic versions I understand. If the US had done this to India there would have been howls of protest on this forum.

IMO, the only truly valuable Russian program is the assistance with the N submarines, both reactors and operations including the lease of the Akulas. And IMO again, we pay the Russians for that critical program with everything else we buy from them. When the SU-30 was bought India did not have options. But neither did the Russians. Russia was in financial ruin and Irkut the supplier had no money. It was Indian money that kept them alive. So it was a two way street.

If the Russians truly valued India over China they would sell us the domestic variants of the R-77 or at least allow us to evaluate both.

Anyway both China and India have found out that the RVV-AE is sub-optimal. India has integrated the Astra on the SU-30s with the IAF chief saying that Astra's performance is better than the existing AAMs on the aircraft. I do not know if he is referring to the RVV-AE or even the RVV-SD assuming that India has acquired this variant. China has long ago developed the PL-12 and now the PL-15 to supersede the RVV-AE the PLAAF got from Russia as part of their purchase of SU-30s and earlier SU-27s.

[Rakesh]

Rakesh - yes I agree. Decades have passed since the last IAF fighter purchase (bar Rafale - which is also a decades old decision), but point is - if we had to do this again, one big factor that should be considered is compatibility with the enormous amount of NATO standard ordinance out there. I am happy to see to see India choose the Apache helicopter - with has battle tested hellfire missiles among other things that can be ordered by the planeload (from US Armed forces stock if necessary) for contingencies like these. Similarly, I am also happy to see M777 howitzers - with precision Excalibur ammunition (which hopefully is currently being ordered by the planeload) and will make a difference in the current conflagration. All this is in addition to the transport & surveillance aircraft you mentioned.

Yes there indeed is a large buffet of NATO standard ordinance out there. Please remember, this same ordinance existed during MMRCA 1.0 as well. Always remember it is the user (IAF) that makes the decision on the platform chosen. The customer (GOI) only pays for the product. Good examples of this will be;

*C-17 vs IL-76 in which the C-17 won.
*AH-64 vs Mi-28 in which the AH-64 won.
*CH-47 vs Mi-26 in which the CH-47 won.

At the end of the day, the user (Army, Navy and Air Force) has to determine how the chosen platform will best suit its needs. And that decision will come again via MMRCA 2.0. The only problem is it is unlikely that contest will ever see the light of day, for a variety of factors. BTW, the M777 howitzer is very good example you have brought up.

IMO this is a very dangerous assumption. Once conflict starts, it is very hard to stop. If IA does something & wins, will Xi sit there & lick his wounds or will he escalate further and try to salvage some H&D? Who knows how far this is going to go & how long this is going to last. But one thing is for sure, if India used Western ordinance - running out of AAM's or running out of missiles would not be an issue - there would be many able & willing allies willing to help India out (even out of their own stocks).

The Chinese will only get into a fight if they know they are going to win it. The idea of last man, last round is anathema to them. Unlike the Indian Army, their troops have no real fighting experience to speak of. I am surprised they resorted to clubs with barbed wire. They have the numbers, both in terms of men and material. Defeating India on the border, should be a cake walk for them. What exactly is stopping them? I am not even being sarcastic here.

Thus the better question to ask would be ---> Will Xi actually "recover" after the Indian Army retaliates and wins in a border conflict? The Chinese people have been fed stories of their superior force vis-a-viv India. Has that actually ever been tested by the Chinese? I am certainly not under estimating the fire from the dragon, but at the same time there is no need to dhoti shiver either. Doklam has shown to the CCP that the Indian Army is no pushover and the present conflict only cements that idea. What the Chinese are asking themselves is how many men and related H&D are they willing to sacrifice to defeat India? Xi needs to stay in power indefinitely after all and the only way he can stay in power is to have a resounding victory. Will the Indian Army give that to him on a silver platter?

Where the stocks would be nice to have is in the precision Excalibur ammunition.

You are missing the forest for the trees here. This isn't about one exercise or Aircraft X better than Aircraft Y. This is about access to war stores for a conflict that could last months & having (say) R-77 as your primary BVR AAM is not smart when you are not assured a supply of them when you need them.

Not Cain Marko, but I do want to highlight the point that full scale conflict is unsustainable for months. Keeping men and material in that perpetual sustained state is just not possible. Neither side can do it. A full scale conflict will be over in a few days or maximum a week. Any fighting after that will be skirmishes and will have little to negligible effect on the negotiations after.

Let us assume that the IAF operates the F-15EX for example and lets say there are around 2 squadrons worth or around 36 - 40 aircraft. When those aircraft - supported by other combat aircraft - rain hell on the PLAAF in the eastern theatre....what will be left for the PLAAF after the air battle is over? The IAF will obviously have won a decisive victory. Do you think the PLAAF will repeat the same again? Now the IAF will have free reign in the air space over that theatre and the Indian Army will operate with immunity from air attack.

Even if the PLAAF tries a different tactic or mounts an air campaign in another sector, the IAF will reign again with the F-15EX. The aircraft is no slouch and is a very capable fourth generation fighter. Heck, if the Su-30MKI could detect the J-20...imagine what an AESA equipped F-15EX could do. And with the amount of air-to-air missiles that Boeing is putting on marketing brochures, a mere six-ship formation will spell disaster for the PLAAF operating in that theatre. What aircraft does the PLAAF actually have that can stand toe-to-toe with the F-15EX?

Where then is the need for a conflict that can last months? After the first air battle, the PLAAF will be begging the CCP to stop or leave the PLA to its own fate. Once the IAF has air superiority, no amount of troops that the PLA can bring on the ground will change the inevitable.

Now if I change the word "F-15EX" with Rafale above, the end result will still be the same. No PL-15 air-to-air missile is going to change that fact. If the Russian missiles supposedly have "dubious" ranges, imagine what the Chinese Xerox copy will be. The AIM-120D has a range exceeding 160 km, while the PL-15 has a range nearly double that at 300 km and that is what the Chinese want you to believe.

Will the IAF prevail over the PLAAF with F-15EX armed with AIM-120D? Absolutely.

Will the IAF prevail over the PLAAF with Rafale armed with Meteor? Again True.

The first few days of a full scale conflict will make or break either side.

#1. the US has much deeper pockets than anyone else & they have an interest in helping India defend against China. If the balloon goes up, I am sure they will have no problems making very long-term loans to supply India with what is needed to make sure India comes up on top. The 10 year Treasury bill has an effective interest rate of 0.66% per-annum last I checked a few days ago, 30-year rate is less than 4% per-annum - it will not cost them anything to do this - these are market rates, all they have to do is assume the credit risk, which they already do for other types of sales via instruments like the Exim bank.

#2. Will the Russians who are "neutral" even sell India anything in this type of crisis with China? If open hostilities break out, will the Russians supply (say) more R-77 missiles?

#3. I am not knocking SU-30 or any pilot flying them, I am just pointing out the deficiencies in the Russian eco-system. It has nothing to do with the plane. You have eco-system (a) you can get virtually unlimited war supplies, on very competitive rates, from a very motivated ally with whom you have a shared enemy or (b) the Russian eco-system - who apart from being routinely unable to fulfill their contract obligations might not even want to supply anything when supplies are needed most.

All nice points that will have little to no effect in a full scale conflict that will last a few days or one week maximum.

Replenishing stocks - via the Russies - will be more challenging, but that happens after the conflict is over.

Hope this makes sense. I am not attacking anything or anyone, I am just trying to make the point, that India might want to transition off the Russian ecosystem as soon as possible.

No worries. You are not attacking anyone

[Rakesh]

khan: read this twitter feed from Askhay Kapoor. Eye Opening....

https://twitter.com/Ak5985965/status/12 ... 45442?s=20

[brar_w]

You don't deter conflict by having an elaborate, geopolitics dependent, foreign supply train. The US maintains conventional deterrence against a China or Russia because both know of its military capability specifically the ability to focus a tremendous amount of resources in short order. No other nation has an 'active' fighter production base delivering close to 200 aircraft a year and the same can be said of munitions (50,000+ PGM's annual production), airlift, refueling, logistics, missiles, networks, BMD and space capability. So No F-15, F-16 or SU-35 is going to matter. Long term, only organic capability to generate military power and pivot it (scale it up, or dial it down) as the situation demands is what deters conflict against a capable adversary. The Rafale is probably the most capable aircraft the IAF has ever operated. But as a fraction of defense spending, or economic scale, the MOD/IAF will spend more per unit on it than the USAF did on the F-22A. China will be quite happy to play this game (economic attrition) and the only way out, long term, is to boost domestic capability and build up capacity to produced dozens of aircraft a year..first LCA, then AMCA and UAV's. That's the only sustainable way. You have to buy time till then. China isn't going to move away or become a lesser power in the future (if things blow up with the Communist party that may spark additional volatility and the need to pick fights) so this is a multi-decade competition and the only way to keep a competition from becoming a conflict is to have a strong domestic capability and conventional deterrence that it affords.

[Rakesh]

Thank you Brar.

[ldev]

so this is a multi-decade competition and the only way to keep a competition from becoming a conflict is to have a strong domestic capability and conventional deterrence that it affords.

The Youtube link below is a great interview done by Nitin Gokhale with Baba Kalyani of Bharat Forge, IMO one of the real pioneers in the private defense sector in India, very competent and professional. They have great depth in metallurgy IP. In this interview he talks at the end about his dream of building a jet engine for Indian military aircraft and he is realistic enough to state that it will require a consortium to build. Their products are good enough that components are sold to Rolls Royce for their jet engines. It is companies like this that GOI should be encouraging to build that domestic base that you talk about. GTRE has done a complete hash of the Kaveri. Watch specially from 8:00 onwards to the end. The jet engine conversation is in the last 5 minutes.

[khan]

khan: read this twitter feed from Askhay Kapoor. Eye Opening....

https://twitter.com/Ak5985965/status/12 ... 45442?s=20

I don't value these force comparisons very much because they are often incomplete & can be overcome by tactics. For eg. that thread doesn't talk about S-400, which could cause severe issues over Tibet (and more than compensate for their deficient air-force based out of Tibet), similarly the tweet thread talks about a lack of AWACS (which is a very serious issue), but its quite possible that P8-I's might be "good enough" (and might be currently used as a sort of AWACS) until full blown "flying chapati" is developed. So, people can make these force comparisons, and I could make counterpoints (like talk about the artillery deficit on our side) - but everything can be overcome by tactics.

Your point about Rafale vs F-15X holds for now, but the Chinese will eventually catch up. The advantage of say F-15X over Rafale would be, just because of the size of the installed base, the fact that it is a NATO standard platform, it is pretty much guaranteed to be able to shoot the next 3-4 AMRAAM versions, whereas the next version of the Meteor might never even produced.

Brar made some points about deterring China & you made a point about length of war - to me ultimately, it comes down to making choices that give you maximum flexibility.

If the war turns into a months long slog - isn't it nice to have a motivated ally like the US who can supply planeloads of excalibur shells? This is not about deterring China or putting some arbitrary length on a conflict - to me this is about making choices that give maximum flexibility once deterrence fails.

Last week, this time all of us were expecting a smooth de-escelation & were beating down hard on our more hawkish members (banned at least one of them) - but we were wrong. Similarly, what if we are wrong about our assumption about a 1 week war? What if we are underestimating their resolve? It would be nice to have that flexibility to plug into that NATO ecosystem.

[srai]

brar_w

You don't deter conflict by having an elaborate, geopolitics dependent, foreign supply train. The US maintains conventional deterrence against a China or Russia because both know of its military capability specifically the ability to focus a tremendous amount of resources in short order. No other nation has an 'active' fighter production base delivering close to 200 aircraft a year and the same can be said of munitions (50,000+ PGM's annual production), airlift, refueling, logistics, missiles, networks, BMD and space capability.
...

You have highlighted the key piece on what makes a military superpower. India, number one/two arms importer, has ways to go.

[Rakesh]

I don't value these force comparisons very much because they are often incomplete & can be overcome by tactics. For eg. that thread doesn't talk about S-400, which could cause severe issues over Tibet (and more than compensate for their deficient air-force based out of Tibet), similarly the tweet thread talks about a lack of AWACS (which is a very serious issue), but its quite possible that P8-I's might be "good enough" (and might be currently used as a sort of AWACS) until full blown "flying chapati" is developed. So, people can make these force comparisons, and I could make counterpoints (like talk about the artillery deficit on our side) - but everything can be overcome by tactics.

We have three full blown "flying chapatis" right now in the form of the EL/W-2090 radar mounted on three IL-76 aircraft and you raised the point of the P-8I. If the balloon goes up tomorrow, we have a fairly decent AEW force to support air combat operations.

Everything can indeed be overcome by tactics. And tactics are developed and honed by having battle hardened troops and Generals with real leadership experience. Is that readily available in China? Look up the recent Thai air force and PLAAF air exercise. In BVR combat, they got hammered and in visual combat it was the other way around. In visual combat, IAF pilots will trounce the PLAAF. In BVR combat, we will have the decisive edge with the Rafale.

As Group Captain HV Thakur (Retd) so aptly points out...

https://twitter.com/hvtiaf/status/12356 ... 49856?s=20 ---> Abstract Ex - think about it. police gun range = 100 meters, but thief's gun range = 120 meters. Will this be reason enough for the thief to be allowed to escape? No. There's all kinds of tactics. For policing, as also, for air combat.

Your point about Rafale vs F-15X holds for now, but the Chinese will eventually catch up. The advantage of say F-15X over Rafale would be, just because of the size of the installed base, the fact that it is a NATO standard platform, it is pretty much guaranteed to be able to shoot the next 3-4 AMRAAM versions, whereas the next version of the Meteor might never even produced.

While China "eventually" catches up to Rafale and F-15EX, India and the rest of the world will be twiddling her thumbs? I am sure that even you do not believe that. With the development of the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), there will be follow on or newer missiles to the Meteor. And while FCAS may carry future variants of the AMRAAM, you can be 100% sure MBDA will develop a missile to succeed the present Meteor. The French pride on having a defence industry (boutique and expensive she may be) independent of the US.

In India, there is SFDR and Astra Mk2 that is in development. And when India has access to them, what is the need for AMRAAM? Which platform are you going to fire them from? I don't think even Tejas can fire them and there are only 17 of them right now. The IAF knows the threats it faces and has taken all the required measures. If they believed that tapping into the US/NATO ecosystem would be beneficial, they would have done that already in MMRCA 1.0 itself. Think about why that never happened.

The issue with China catching up is that they have no real R&D to speak of. Most of their frontline platforms are rip offs from other countries. Their J-15 is xeroxed from the Su-33. Do read up on the stellar performance they are getting from their only frontline naval fighter. Their J-31 is xeroxed from the F-35. And when you xerox copy platforms, they will always be hobbled. The US has invested billions and spent considerable time researching & developing that tech and xerox copying it just will not work. If xerox copying a stealth plane was that easy, even Somalia would do it.

Brar made some points about deterring China & you made a point about length of war - to me ultimately, it comes down to making choices that give you maximum flexibility.

If the war turns into a months long slog - isn't it nice to have a motivated ally like the US who can supply planeloads of excalibur shells? This is not about deterring China or putting some arbitrary length on a conflict - to me this is about making choices that give maximum flexibility once deterrence fails.

Deterrence only fails when one side is considerably weaker than the other. Does China honestly believe that they have a winning chance on the border right now? If they do, send the PLA in. We all know what our side is capable of. We have been told what the Chinese is capable of. On paper, we don't stand a chance against them. Why does it need to be a months long slog then? We would be run over and the Chinese flag will be flying over the Red Fort in New Delhi by the middle of next week. And when that happens, what is the point of have access to the US/NATO ecosystem? We would better off signing up for Mandarin and Cantonese classes at that point.

Last week, this time all of us were expecting a smooth de-escelation & were beating down hard on our more hawkish members (banned at least one of them) - but we were wrong. Similarly, what if we are wrong about our assumption about a 1 week war? What if we are underestimating their resolve? It would be nice to have that flexibility to plug into that NATO ecosystem.

The flexibility of plugging into the NATO ecosystem will only work when India has the platforms which that ecosystem can support. Access to thousands of AMRAAMs is meaningless if none of the combat aircraft the IAF has cannot use them. On the other hand, having access to the large stock of Harpoon AShMs will work because the P-8I uses that missile. But then again the question arises how much damage is the PLAN willing to take after the first round. Sink and/or degrade one of their carriers - using a Harpoon/BrahMos combo - and will the PLAN take the chance of sending another one into the Indian Ocean?

Like the example I mentioned in my earlier post, how much damage is the deficient PLAAF unit operating out of Tibet willing to take after the first mauling they get? After the first round of losses, will the PLAAF be willing to pull planes out of other theatres (Taiwan, Japan) to support the air battle in Tibet? The Chinese are human. They are not some mindless robot like the Borg from Star Trek. They will soon realize that it will be a blood bath for them. In Tibet, the PLAAF will be at a disadvantage and the IAF knows that fact quite well and will squeeze where it hurts most.

[Rakesh]

Khan, not directly related to MMRCA thread but this is the trust we are placing in the leader of the free world to help us with the dragon. If he is only concerned with re-election and if Trump feels Xi could be a path to winning in 2020, he will gladly throw India under the bus. The only way around this is to have your own MIC. In the LONGER TERM....let India not rely on AMRAAM and Meteor, but rather on SFDR and Astra Mk2.

Bolton described a conversation between the two world leaders at the June
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/17/politics ... index.html
18 June 2020

Bolton described a conversation between the two world leaders at the June 2019 G-20 meeting in Osaka, Japan, where Trump told Xi that Midwestern farmers were key to his reelection in November 2020. Trump urged Xi to buoy his political fortunes by buying American agricultural products, linking a promise to waive some tariffs on China in exchange. Trump "stressed the importance of farmers and increased Chinese purchases of soybeans and wheat in the electoral outcome," Bolton wrote.

Bolton also says that it's hard for him to think of a single decision Trump made during his stint at the White House "that wasn't driven by reelection calculations."

[Rakesh]

Imagine what will happen if the Govt actually circumvented the MMRCA process and went in for an immediate deal with any nation for a new fighter type? The only exception to this is acquiring fighters presently in service i.e. like the 21 MiG-29s from Russia or additional Su-30MKIs or the IAF examining ex-French Air Force Mirage 2000 air frames.

Khan....after reading above, please read below. The reality is - in the short term - the IAF can only absorb what is already in service now. Anything else will take time and time is not a luxury India has now. Not that even this is going to make any difference either.

Those 12 Sukhois are only to make up the attrition losses. The only real addition are those 21 MiG-29s. I expect shopping for additional Mirage 2000s to happen as well. No 9 Wolfpacks Sqn is long overdue to become full strength.

Source: Twitter

FrontalAssault
@FrontalAssault1
Big Breaking: India to buy 12 Sukhoi and 21 MiG-29 under emergency purchase from Russia.

5:03 PM · Jun 18, 2020·Twitter for Android

[Kartik]

Is there now a likelihood that the faceoff with the Chinese will make this GoI, which has been quite stingy overall with funds for the military, to expedite the MRCA RFP or just go ahead with an emergency purchase of 36 additional Rafales?

[Cain Marko]

Imagine what will happen if the Govt actually circumvented the MMRCA process and went in for an immediate deal with any nation for a new fighter type? The only exception to this is acquiring fighters presently in service i.e. like the 21 MiG-29s from Russia or additional Su-30MKIs or the IAF examining ex-French Air Force Mirage 2000 air frames..... I expect shopping for additional Mirage 2000s to happen as well. No 9 Wolfpacks Sqn is long overdue to become full strength.

Admiralji, I find m2k purchases unlikely for a couple of reasons unless you've caught a whiff of something in the air:

1. IAF has shown no movement in this direction recently.. Maybe because nothing is available. The only possibility is Taiwan and UAE? How much life is left in their airframes. Note that the 29s being picked up have seen zero airtime. Still in assembly line condition iirc.
2. Very expensive frames to get them upgraded. Rather spend time and effort on rafale perhaps.
3. A2A at least, the IAF seems to want birds with longer sticks. The Mica/rdy combo will not allow them much advantage.

[Rakesh]

IAF pilots did indeed examine a few air frames last year. That is confirmed. ex-French Air Force stocks that too.

[Cain Marko]

Three of things about this:

#1. the US has much deeper pockets than anyone else & they have an interest in helping India defend against China. If the balloon goes up, I am sure they will have no problems making very long-term loans to supply India with what is needed to make sure India comes up on top. The 10 year Treasury bill has an effective interest rate of 0.66% per-annum last I checked a few days ago, 30-year rate is less than 4% per-annum - it will not cost them anything to do this - these are market rates, all they have to do is assume the credit risk, which they already do for other types of sales via instruments like the Exim bank.

#2. Will the Russians who are "neutral" even sell India anything in this type of crisis with China? If open hostilities break out, will the Russians supply (say) more R-77 missiles?

#3. I am not knocking SU-30 or any pilot flying them, I am just pointing out the deficiencies in the Russian eco-system. It has nothing to do with the plane. You have eco-system (a) you can get virtually unlimited war supplies, on very competitive rates, from a very motivated ally with whom you have a shared enemy or (b) the Russian eco-system - who apart from being routinely unable to fulfill their contract obligations might not even want to supply anything when supplies are needed most.


Hope this makes sense. I am not attacking anything or anyone, I am just trying to make the point, that India might want to transition off the Russian ecosystem as soon as possible.

India and the IAF is very well acquainted with the issues of stocks/spares inventory management when it comes to Russian hardware. Most of it's russki platforms today have top notch uptimes. Much of the maal is serviced at home via Hal or BRD.

When it comes to weapons, it can integrate local ones as seen from the Astra on Russian platforms. I'm not sure this is easily done on US platforms.

Bottomline is that India needs to transition off the Russian or any foreign eco system to a Desi one asap.

[srai]

Qatar has 12 Mirage-2000 being replaced by Rafale, F-15 and Eurofighter.

Brazil also has 12 Mirage-2000 being replaced by Gripen-E.

France will have quite a few as Rafales replace Mirages. In fact, France donated a Mirage-2000 for UPG for the one that was lost in an accident.

Short-term boost to pad up existing squadrons and possibly raise one more. With the UPG, they are good till 2040. Buys a fair bit of time for the IAF.

As far as air-to-air BVR, MICA-NG is on the horizon. Local options, Astra MK.1 and follow-ons. Astra MK.1, as it stands today, seems to offer better ranges than AMRAAM C5 and probably be roughly equivalent to AMRAAM C7. Astra with Dual-Pulse would definitely be superior to the C5/C7. Astra SDFR would surpass AMRAAM D and rival Meteor.

Imagine what will happen if the Govt actually circumvented the MMRCA process and went in for an immediate deal with any nation for a new fighter type? The only exception to this is acquiring fighters presently in service i.e. like the 21 MiG-29s from Russia or additional Su-30MKIs or the IAF examining ex-French Air Force Mirage 2000 air frames..... I expect shopping for additional Mirage 2000s to happen as well. No 9 Wolfpacks Sqn is long overdue to become full strength.

Admiralji, I find m2k purchases unlikely for a couple of reasons unless you've caught a whiff of something in the air:

1. IAF has shown no movement in this direction recently.. Maybe because nothing is available. The only possibility is Taiwan and UAE? How much life is left in their airframes. Note that the 29s being picked up have seen zero airtime. Still in assembly line condition iirc.
2. Very expensive frames to get them upgraded. Rather spend time and effort on rafale perhaps.
3. A2A at least, the IAF seems to want birds with longer sticks. The Mica/rdy combo will not allow them much advantage.

[vishvak]

..They have great depth in metallurgy IP. In this interview he talks at the end about his dream of building a jet engine for Indian military aircraft and he is realistic enough to state that it will require a consortium to build. Their products are good enough that components are sold to Rolls Royce for their jet engines..

This is what perhaps Chinese fear more than actual dollar amount of loss in trade per year. The Wuhan virus problem has dampened the chances though.

[Kartik]

Qatar has 12 Mirage-2000 being replaced by Rafale, F-15 and Eurofighter.

Brazil also has 12 Mirage-2000 being replaced by Gripen-E.

France will have quite a few as Rafales replace Mirages. In fact, France donated a Mirage-2000 for UPG for the one that was lost in an accident.

The 9 remaining Brazilian Mirage-2000s are gone. They were sold to a French firm Procor for use as Aggressors, for just $452,000 for the entire lot!
link

The 12 Qatari Mirage-2000-5s are very likely to be made available in the next few years as larger numbers of Rafale, F-15QA and Typhoons enter service and pilot shortage becomes a real issue for the QAF. I'm pretty certain that if the IAF were to approach the QAF to initate talks on selling their fleet, they would be interested.

These are already upgraded and wouldn't need the extensive -2000I upgrade that the IAF jets were put through.

French Mirage-2000s are of different variants.
-The Mirage-2000Ns are gone, these were strategic variants and won't be made available for sale and don't fit our use anyway.
-The Mirage-2000Ds are to be upgraded to keep them in service till 2030. 55 will be upgraded as per the plan
-The Mirage-2000-5s will soldier on a little longer. 37 in service
-The older Mirage-2000Cs are to be retired as well. But most of their airframes would've been flogged quite hard. ~120 in service.

So, the best option remains the 12 Qatari Mirage-2000-5s.

[srai]

^^^
What a bargain on the Brazilian Mirage-2000!

[Kartik]

But those were Mirage-2000s that had first served in the French AF and then FAB. So they were pretty much used to their limit. They would've been put through an overhaul and refurbishment to bring them back to flyable status. Similar to how Draken International brought ex-Spanish Mirage F1Ms and then refurbished them and brought them back to fly-worthy status.

[Philip]

MKI production is now from desi material 70%+. If you're talking about ecosystems,that's the easiest to pursue,a couple more sqds.,but upgraded to the SS std. that's been in the air for years.The MKIs bested the F-15 years back at Cope India,so why think of acquiring an inferior new type? Moreover TE fighters are what we need against the Chinese,both heavy and medium. Upgrading 200 or so MKIs also to SS std. was planned. The only delay was moolah. The same disease with multiple programmes of all services. A cheaper option to increase numbers would be more MIG-29/35s.Around 2-3 more sqds. Along with the MKIs it would add another 100 aircraft,while hopefully accelerated LCA production would add another 60+ at least.
M2Ks are few available second hand and upgrades cost a whopping $50+M! More than a brand new MIG-29/35 or LCA. If you want more French aircraft,one more Rafale sqd. at least if prices can be brought down, as the price for just 1 Raffy gets you approx. 3 29/35s.
In the interim to beef up our strength against China,the lease from Russia for Flanker variants ,France for Rafales could add 2 to 3 sqds. for the moment.

Long term,only the LCA and AMCA will provide us with a desi ecosystem,which will still depend upon a firang engine and other key components. What are key acquisitions needed are new BVR AAMs from both east and west with an eye on the price tag too. The Meteor is fine but v.expensive.There are reported new AAMs being developed in Ru for the SU-57 ,SU-35 . Plus our own Astra must be tweaked for greater ranges/ performance. A combination of these on our principal fighters would give us the BVR advantage over both China and Pak,but large numbers are reqd. if a JV between the two against us occurs.Here's where cheaper cost- effective fighters are also reqd. to make up the numbers. Quick decisions must be taken. I don't know how many Gripen sqds. could be made over / leased instantly,but its another avenue worth talking a walk down.

[Manish_Sharma]

TWITTER

@SJha1618

If the MiG-35 ends up being license-produced under the 114 MRFA tender, then you can be rest assured who the 'Old Russia', 'New Russia' & 'Only Russia' for India is.

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/127 ... 65856?s=19

[basant]

114 Make In India Jet Much More Complicated Than MMRCA

...
Speaking to Livefist, HAL chairman R. Madhavan said, “The Indian Air Force will now have to make a RFI/RFQ (request for information/quotation) which meets both single and twin engine varieties. It will be very difficult to formulate an SQR (staff qualitative requirement) which covers both. So we have to wait and see how the IAF plays it, how they want their aircraft to be defined. Based on that, we will submit our quote.“
...
Despite warning signs, the M-MRCA had seemed like a highly structured selection process that would defeat the obvious challenges of evaluating totally disparate fighter types. Former IAF chief Air Chief Marshal Pradeep Naik had even openly suggested patenting the M-MRCA evaluation process to license it to other countries looking to buy jets. In the end, the contest stalled, crashed and burned, was hauled over the coals by India’s national auditor, and resulted in India signing up for 36 of the winning jet, the Rafale, in 2016, over a decade after the M-MRCA program began.
...

[Mort Walker]

I'm willing to bet this thread will still be open in 2025. The MMRCA needs to cancelled and 44 more Rafales need to be ordered along with 200 Tejas Mk1A today. After that NO MORE FOREIGN FIGHTER AIRCRAFT. Tejas Mk2 and MWF or MCA needs to come next.

[darshan]

Probably. Given the circumstances, one would think that IAF itself would have reached out to PM and would have said that make the LCA happen now. PM do it no matter how. Only options being seen by PM should be how to make LCA and everything related to it happen.

[Cain Marko]

TWITTER

@SJha1618

If the MiG-35 ends up being license-produced under the 114 MRFA tender, then you can be rest assured who the 'Old Russia', 'New Russia' & 'Only Russia' for India is.

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/127 ... 65856?s=19

What's he trying to say... Way over my head.

[Rakesh]

He is just being tongue-in-cheek Cain-ji. Don't read too much into it.

[Rakesh]

If this article below is true, the Russians likely offered this to Raksha Mantri Rajnath Singh when he visited Russia last week.

Why Russia’s offer to build its elite Su-35 fighters in India could be very tempting for Delhi
https://www.defenceaviationpost.com/202 ... for-delhi/
20 June 2020

The Russian Su-35 Flanker ‘4++ generation’ air superiority fighter has stood out among the seven contestants for the Indian Air Force’s Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) tender as the only heavyweight platform and the only one with an airframe specialised for air to air combat. Coming from a higher weight range the Su-35 can comfortably outperform all other contestants across the spectrum, with a heavier payload, longer range, higher altitude ceiling, heavier and more powerful sensors and electronics suites, and three dimensional thrust vectoring engines which provide a degree of manoeuvrability and a high speed unrivalled by all but the MiG-35. It is the only fighter in the contest confirmed to be able to deploy hypersonic air to air missiles, and alongside the MiG-35 is the only fighter expected to deploy APAA guided missiles. Despite its relatively low cost and high performance, a key drawback of the Su-35 relative to lighter jets such as the MiG-35 and Rafale are its higher maintenance requirements and operational costs – which arguably make it less suitable as a contestant for a medium weight fighter competition.

By linking an offer to manufacture 114 Su-35 fighters in India with the ability to modernise the country’s existing fleet of over 250 Su-30MKI heavyweight fighters, the Russian offer may well compensate for the drawbacks of higher operational costs. Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation has reportedly offered to provide a number of Su-35 technologies as part of the contract, which could be used to upgrade India’s Su-30 fleet. Many of these will be manufactured in India itself, and this will significantly improve the performance of the Su-30. The contract would see engines and other systems from the Su-35 integrated onto Indian Su-30s, creating a considerable similarity of parts between the two jets and greater interoperability. Thus in turn can lead to easier maintenance and a reduction in net operational costs for India’s heavyweight fighter fleet – something which no other contender in the competition has a chance to offer.

[Rakesh]

And this from a retired Su-30MKI pilot of the Indian Air Force....

https://twitter.com/sajaniaf/status/127 ... 13985?s=20 ----> Brothers of the same blood. MKI, MKK, MKM are all same except avionics customised for India, China & Malaysia respectively. Su-35 marginally better in performance. Single seat, extra fuel, lighter radar.

[srin]

If this article below is true, the Russians likely offered this to Raksha Mantri Rajnath Singh when he visited Russia last week.

Why Russia’s offer to build its elite Su-35 fighters in India could be very tempting for Delhi
https://www.defenceaviationpost.com/202 ... for-delhi/
It is the only fighter in the contest confirmed to be able to deploy hypersonic air to air missiles, and alongside the MiG-35 is the only fighter expected to deploy APAA guided missiles.

What's so special about either SU-35 or Mig-35 that only they can deploy hypersonic missile ? Why not the SU-30 ?

Second, why is Russia peddling Su-35 if they could offer out-of-RFP SU-57s ?

[Rakesh]

Sales tactics srin. That is all what this is. Each phoren country trying to make a quick buck out of the mess of the Indian procurement system.

[Rakesh]

Lockheed F-21 – Still In the Fray – In Some Ways a Contender
https://airpowerasia.com/2020/06/29/loc ... contender/
By Air Marshal Anil Chopra (retd)