Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

[Shanmukh]

People have been focussing on the economic and military retaliation here. Let us give some thought to the diplomatic retaliation we can do. I am focussing only on the diplomatic moves possible here. And also, this is not just what the government can do, but also things that WE, as citizens, can do.

The core of the current Chinese state is the `One China' policy. It demands that everyone accept its `One China' policy. We can refute this. Not only is the `One China' policy the result of Chinese expansionism, it is even historically, ethnically and politically illegitimate. Inner Mongolia is really Mongolia. Tibet Autonomous Region+Qinghai is really Greater Tibet. Xinjiang is really East Turkestan. There are even Hong Kong and Macau separatists. What should be our goals.

Wiki chacha lists these separatists in China. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secession_in_China

a) First, state that we don't accept the `One China' policy. Or rather, we recognise the `One China', `One Tibet', `One Mongolia', `One East Turkestan', `One Hong Kong' and `One Macau' policy.
b) Start making contacts with the separatists. We don't even know who they really are, let alone know their political and cultural attitudes. This should not only be explored by the government, but also by individuals. The ultimate goal would be to support them based on mutual respect and reciprocity for our concerns.
c) Sanskrit has had colossal impact on both Mongol and Tibetan [someone knowing only Sanskrit, can pick up bits and pieces of both literary Mongolian and Tibetan, BTW]. We should start exploring our commonalities, especially with the Inner Mongolian Separatists and the Tibetans. There may be new synergies that we can exploit. Those who know something about the politics of Mongolia/Inner Mongolia can probably opine better. In fact, we should start radio/TV stations in Mongolian and Tibetan that will cater to their sensibilities and start broadcasting from India and Mongolia respectively. It is a completely different matter that Tibetan has lakhs of speakers in India [quite apart from the Tibetan refugees] in Ladakh, Sikkim and Arunachal and we owe it to them to mainstream their languages.
d) In fact, we should start exploring our real cultural neighbourhood-the SE Asia. Here, we and the Chinese are jostling for space, and we have a lot more culturally in common with Cambodia, Laos, Burma, Indonesia and Thailand than the Chinese do [Vietnam is an exception culturally-they are more Sinicised than Indianised]. Honestly, their culture and our culture overlap to a huge extent. Expanding cultural, political and diplomatic contacts in this region is vital. Here, if we can stop the west from demonising Burma and Cambodia, it would be great. Honestly, Burma and Cambodia are infinitely better than China at respecting human rights, and if the west can do business with China, I don't see why Burma, Cambodia and Laos are problematic.
e) The biggest red flag for the Chinese is Taiwan and we are already seeing some heartening progress on that front. We need to explore them further, see what can be achieved. If diplomatic recognition for Taiwan is granted, we should extract a promise from them to free Tibet and respect the Indian borders. The big problem about Taiwan is that even they don't seem to know what they want to do. Some of them are pro-independence, while others are the `Green flag on Red Fort' types [or rather, in their case, `Blue Star on Tiananmen' types].

[yensoy]

^^^^ You don't understand China.

China is as dominant as it is because they produce stuff the world wants, and the world is hooked on to the Chinese factory. This is what gives them the power over everyone, despite basically having uprooted and consigned to flames their 6000 years of history and replaced it with a make-believe version.

By aligning with non-existent groups within China, or non-existent freedom movements which could appeal to only a micro minority of residents of China, you are not going anywhere. I refer to the Turkestan/Tibet and Mongolia ideas. Our deep civilizational links cut no ice, sorry. Chinese are amused that we even consider that leverage.

Hong Kong and Taiwan are real issues and that is where Indian support will help, although it will be purely a moral/diplomatic support. Macau is a non-issue - Macau exists on the largess of the Chinese and knows it well.

We need to get our industries, our lifestyles, our governance include safety, health & education, and our productivity in order. If and when we are able to provide goods & services people want, at that point our civilizational cards together with our higher ethics in business will help turn things in our favour.

Now there is a chance that we could exploit the divisions that you allude to - that would be possible only if the Chinese economy hits a major crisis and collapses under its own contradictions. I don't see any signs of that happening.

[Shanmukh]

By aligning with non-existent groups within China, or non-existent freedom movements which could appeal to only a micro minority of residents of China, you are not going anywhere. I refer to the Turkestan/Tibet and Mongolia ideas. Our deep civilizational links cut no ice, sorry. Chinese are amused that we even consider that leverage.

They may not be leverage at this point. But these groups are real, their grievances are real and they exist on the ground. It is important to start exploring what is really happening there. When the US began courting the various groups in erstwhile USSR, they were equally tiny and irrelevant. How much leverage did the Ukraineans have in pre-1991 USSR? Ukraine actually voted against independence in the late 1980s, BTW, and wanted to be with the Soviet Union. Consequently, I would not dismiss those as irrelevant. And it is worthwhile for us to explore their points of view, and help them sustain themselves. In other words, it is not in our interest to let these groups be completely crushed. And these contacts should be made by non-governmental groups/individuals, to start with.

Now there is a chance that we could exploit the divisions that you allude to - that would be possible only if the Chinese economy hits a major crisis and collapses under its own contradictions. I don't see any signs of that happening.

That might or might not happen in the near future. Heck-no one foresaw the collapse of the USSR even 5 years before it collapsed. In the meantime, we need to start exploring our diplomatic options.

[Suraj]

I have no problem with diplomatic moves. However, they're effectively moves that can be stepped up, paused or reversed as dictated by policy needs, and there will be corresponding shrill noises about our border and territorial aspects.

The elimination of the Chinese trade surplus on the other hand, is an act of unilateral capability on our part. They don't have enough they can retaliate against us with. In the economy thread, there are posters collecting information on what the breakdown in import content from China is. We import billions worth of... fertilizer. And chemicals. Rounding those to zero costs us nothing - it gains us industrial capability. It costs China ~$20 billion in lost earnings and a material excess they need to dump somewhere else. Idle capacity and carrying cost of production is expensive. Any businessman knows this instinctively.

The most effective expression of power is a series of actions to which the other side has no cards to retaliate with. Trade deficits usually are a bad thing, but a deliberate process of eliminating every component of that deficit is an act of economic power that the other side cannot do anything about. The Chinese geopolitical power is built on the back of their manufacturing engine, and we - a long way poorer than US and EU - are the third biggest source of trade surplus to China right now.

[KLNMurthy]

Import duties are ultimately borne by the consumer to whom it is passed. Simply applying a kneejerk tax is rather pointless since the Chinese will apply one too, and then the noise will die down.

The approach has to be far longer term. Entire swathes of goods that the Chinese import need to be eliminated from the import basket, by blocking them from importing it and incentivizing domestic production and other sources.

The Chinese made the cardinal mistake of fighting their 2nd most lucrative buyer, and the price that can be laid at their feet is at minimum in the tens of billions of dollars.

Can someone advise as to how one may obtain information about Chinese imports coming into the country? I don't care about aggregate general information like 20 billion toys, 10 million fatakas, etc. which is readily available. I am asking about specific import items info such as: "10 kilos of widgets imported from chinese company C by Indian company B based in jhumritalao between dates such-and-so" There must be a record in some government ministry (commerce?) of each and every one of these things. Is this publicly available information? Will an RTI request be needed to get this information?

When we get this information, which will be huge in volume no doubt, then we can start the real war. Use crowdsourcing to contact-trace every single one the items (after prioritizing), work out import substitution or demand elimination in each case, and maintain a dashboard of progress for each line item.

Government cannot do this as it will be an overtly hostile act that they are not up for. Military can't do this. It is up to us ordinary Indians to run this.

Step up, BRFites.

[darshan]

India is a democracy with elections. The low hanging fruit needs to be plucked first: banning all Chinese apps and devices that call home. GoI can't allow Chinese phones with these apps that can be used for election manipulations.

[Shanmukh]

I have no problem with diplomatic moves. However, they're effectively moves that can be stepped up, paused or reversed as dictated by policy needs, and there will be corresponding shrill noises about our border and territorial aspects.

Suraj-saar,
As I said, I was exploring only the diplomatic options at this point. I don't dispute your claim that the economic retaliation would be the most effective for us. But the point here was specifically to explore what diplomatic options we have.

Making contacts with these small Tibetan and Mongolian groups would be good for starters. Starting a Tibetan/Mongolian TV/radio and broadcasting programmes would be a good initiative to connect to these people. And much of this could be done quite cheaply. And it would generate good business and good karma [with these people] in the bargain too. India needs to establish itself as a serious actor with these people. Helping these small groups sustain themselves against an extremely oppressive state would be a good idea.

The point in all this is that diplomacy can supplement and magnify the hard power of the state, but cannot replace the hard power. Hard power comes only from economics and military power.

Think of it this way. Pakistan is not spending a huge deal on spreading terrorism in Kashmir, but just by supporting it to an extent, it is making things painful for India. Now, we are not in a position to start an insurgency in Inner Mongolia or Tibet, but it is important to start making contacts with these groups, and reassuring them that there is a friendly power that will back them [to an extent, at least].

[sreerudra]

India is a democracy with elections. The low hanging fruit needs to be plucked first: banning all Chinese apps and devices that call home. GoI can't allow Chinese phones with these apps that can be used for election manipulations.

Good point! Xiomi and other makers have been deploying ******** versions of android.

[sreerudra]

[quote="Shanmukh"]People have been focussing on the economic and military retaliation here. Let us give some thought to the diplomatic retaliation we can do. I am focussing only on the diplomatic moves possible here. And also, this is not just what the government can do, but also things that WE, as citizens, can do.

The core of the current Chinese state is the `One China' policy. It demands that everyone accept its `One China' policy. We can refute this. Not only is the `One China' policy the result of Chinese expansionism, it is even historically, ethnically and politically illegitimate. Inner Mongolia is really Mongolia. Tibet Autonomous Region+Qinghai is really Greater Tibet. Xinjiang is really East Turkestan. There are even Hong Kong and Macau separatists. What should be our goals. "

Wiki chacha lists these separatists in China. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secession_in_China
"
a) First, state that we don't accept the `One China' policy. Or rather, we recognise the `One China', `One Tibet', `One Mongolia', `One East Turkestan', `One Hong Kong' and `One Macau' policy. "

Sir, do you really think China gives a hoot to India on this policy? They are ignoring the entire world and moving forward. Chinese have created an iron curtain so even CIA could not create demonstrations and riots.

[Shanmukh]

Sir, do you really think China gives a hoot to India on this policy? They are ignoring the entire world and moving forward. Chinese have created an iron curtain so even CIA could not create demonstrations and riots.

At the moment, they may not. But there is no reason to oblige them and declare our adherence to the `One China' policy. Let us explore our diplomatic, as well as our economic and military options, without any need to consider Chinese sensitivities.

[Philip]

Timing is essential in all disciplines,esp. statecraft. As days pass after the massacre of our gallant troops, the window is closing for punishing China in non- military ways. The Chin envoy,all military attaches and agents masquerading under other designations should've been sent back to their virus land cattle class.
Immediate trade sanctions for their most popular exports to India ,if not total sanctions imposed. Indian cos. can and must in the interim find alternative suppliers abroad or in India. A total ban on Chinese investment,Chinese ownership of shares,etc.Confiscate their shares if any,let them run to intl.courts ,which they abhor and refuse to let adjudicate on their chicanery.

The two T cards must be played.Recognition of Taiwan and the govt. in exile of Tibet,declaring Tibet as an occupied country. Tawian to be given arms and arms tech.,Vietnam too,plus arming the Tibetan diaspora as we armed the Mukhti Bahini in '71. Sabotage of key infra installations must take place in Tibet and Xinjiang Sadly however,our MEA lacks the spherical objects that dangle between male legs as can be seen by the pathetic statements it put out about the crisis and the total collapse of India's China policy. All the time,money,prestige,invested in the tamashas welcoming the father of slimeballs,XI,on his visits to India the last at Mahabalipiram are now bitter bloody pills for the FM and PM to swallow.

[arshyam]

Starting a Tibetan/Mongolian TV/radio and broadcasting programmes would be a good initiative to connect to these people.

AIR has started a Tibetan language service recently. Is there a Chinese language (Mandarin) service yet? If not, we should start that as well.

[vsunder]

Starting a Tibetan/Mongolian TV/radio and broadcasting programmes would be a good initiative to connect to these people.

AIR has started a Tibetan language service recently. Is there a Chinese language (Mandarin) service yet? If not, we should start that as well.

Yes AIR has a Mandarin language daily service on 17510 kHZ 5.15-6.45 pm IST. It concentrates mainly on cultural events etc. However, they did provide commentary on the ongoing dispute on the LAC and the incident at PP15. The service is also streamed through AIR app.

[rajpa]

...fed vegan diet....

You would do that to a Chinese? Have you no scruples, man?

But this is over ambitious. Any Indian prison cell will have some cockroaches and rats and possibly bed bugs. Nothing can stop the Chinese from having a sumptuous meal. Worst comes to worst, he might eat his own hand.

[Shanmukh]

Starting a Tibetan/Mongolian TV/radio and broadcasting programmes would be a good initiative to connect to these people.

AIR has started a Tibetan language service recently. Is there a Chinese language (Mandarin) service yet? If not, we should start that as well.

The service has been there for quite some time; it is not something recently started. But they advertised it prominently a few days ago. We need to expand contacts and build on our links with our dharmic neighbours.

[Nihat]

To effectively deal with China and Pakistan we really must be a little less Yudhishtir and a little more Shakuni.

China needs the BRI as a strip on its global domination and it is going nowhere. If we manage to keep our feet on their neck near KKR via regular long range Arty strikes into POK, it may give us more bargaining chips on the future.

An even bigger pain in the neck for China is IOR and Malacca region. It is the only way they can connect through to middle east, Africa, Asia Pacific and we need to draw a sizable portion of their fleet there, while building alliances with Japan, Australia and USA.

Consistent buzzing or boarding of merchant ships, flying aggressive sorties while showing weapons and buzzing their sub fleet in the region using P8I will all come in helpful to draw a large part of their fleet to the region, forcing them to spread resources and put out multiple fires.

All of this can be used as leverage to push China into concessions. Alas, like everything else it'll need very strong and consistent political will.

Formal ties with Taiwan and abandoning one China policy are even more advanced steps but they should be used carefully because we have internal faultlines as well.

[Cyrano]

Cross posting what I said on the Mil Forum:

If we look at things from China's perspective, this conflict is happening at 3000 kms from their "mainland" and poses no real threat to their vital interests. No major threat to their economy or trade which has other issues to grapple with. No threat to their society or internal stability because all information is tightly controlled and they can spread any propaganda they want, can throw dissidents into wells. No threat to the establishment, even if it impacts Xi, some other equally crooked CCP leader can take his place. They can afford a border conflict for years and keep turning the heat up or down as they wish. Even territorial integrity of a few thousands kms of stolen lands is no big deal come to think of it, but they won't let go lest it impact their perceived dominance. The territory has some bearing to their OBOR, but even that's con scheme not "vital" for their future really speaking, its a nice to have. They are in no hurry whatsoever. So India's border moves are in reality a minor irritant and they can slowly bleed us or irritate us back easily via Pak, Nepal, Srilanka, Bangladesh... Basically they know India has no "leverage" on China.

On the other hand, the conflict is much closer to Indian heart land. India will find it harder to afford a multiyear conflict. So many soft spots - democracy constraints, moral righteousness itch, Internal dissent, risk of foreign investment getting hit, flight of capital, political unrest, internal disunity of a multi-cultural society, bikau media, economic distress, unfavourable monsoons... Modi will have to stand for re-election in 4 years, opens a possibility to get a pliable or risk averse Govt installed in Delhi. Many many concomitant vulnerabilities that lionhearted soldiers can do nothing about. (Note: This is not India bashing or chaddi shivering, some of these are true for even the US). Given all this China would actually be impressed that we have mustered the gall to put up a fight that we are not sure we can win. They probably see us as being foolhardy and delusional. So cutting India down to size is the only attitude to be expected. It will be dirty because, as they see it, why play fairly with a petulant and weak opponent ? (the same attitude translates elsewhere as why play fairly with a very strong opponent and risk losing)

There are 3 things that will make China reconsider its attitude and approach towards India:
1. India is able to bring along powerful allies willing to fight -> changes the power play, too big a fight so they will negotiate seriously to give and take
2. India mauls them badly in a limited way, like a cornered tiger -> they will let us gain some limited barren lands and be happy with it, mulling revenge for another day and/or in another way
3. India is able to go from being a minor irritant on faraway borders to a major nuisance threatening the unity of the heartland -> they need to find a different equilibrium with this formidable opponent, so they will be amenable to find compromise and create interdependency to avoid future risks.

(Note that "crush India" type response doesn't figure above. They are a bunch of slimy snakes, not truly evil to the bone Rakshas - that would require some degree of integrity and courage to fight till the end which I don't think they have)

So despite all the emotions and the urge to display our recently grown cojones - which I feel as well, I'd really want us & more importantly the GoI to deeply think thru what is the path we are going to take from here on.

Lastly, we ought to take pride in the fact that our brave soldiers fought to death, but we can't take any pride from the fact that they died.

[Cyrano]

Admins : This thread started 2 and half years ago, reached a 100 pages.
The Chinese Threat has neither been neutered nor defanged as the current events demonstrate.

Perhaps a new thread with a revised title "Dealing with the Chinese Threat" is in order ?

[darshan]

One can't neuter Chinese without teaching the history about accidental Indians. IIRC this was the buffoon that bought lot of expensive Navy ships for himself to tour in. On other hand Chinese without ships.

Till this day I don't understand why people term obvious sell outs as strategic blunders. One can understand in 1960's calling it blunders but now it's obvious that these weren't blunders.

How Jawaharlal Nehru missed an opportunity to take control of strategically important Coco Islands now under Chinese control: Read details
https://www.opindia.com/2020/06/how-jaw ... d-details/
Not just the gifting of territories to Pakistan and China, the Congress party under the leadership of former Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru is responsible for India ceding territories with much crucial strategic significance. The indecisions of the then Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru has cost the country much more than just vast swathes of Jammu Kashmir and Ladakh.

Nehru’s lack of strategic comprehension and his inability to bargain hard with the Britishers has resulted in India losing one of South Asia’s most strategic islands after the Andaman and Nicobar Islands – the Coco Islands.

[Suraj]

Import duties are ultimately borne by the consumer to whom it is passed. Simply applying a kneejerk tax is rather pointless since the Chinese will apply one too, and then the noise will die down.

The approach has to be far longer term. Entire swathes of goods that the Chinese import need to be eliminated from the import basket, by blocking them from importing it and incentivizing domestic production and other sources.

The Chinese made the cardinal mistake of fighting their 2nd most lucrative buyer, and the price that can be laid at their feet is at minimum in the tens of billions of dollars.

Can someone advise as to how one may obtain information about Chinese imports coming into the country? I don't care about aggregate general information like 20 billion toys, 10 million fatakas, etc. which is readily available. I am asking about specific import items info such as: "10 kilos of widgets imported from chinese company C by Indian company B based in jhumritalao between dates such-and-so" There must be a record in some government ministry (commerce?) of each and every one of these things. Is this publicly available information? Will an RTI request be needed to get this information?

When we get this information, which will be huge in volume no doubt, then we can start the real war. Use crowdsourcing to contact-trace every single one the items (after prioritizing), work out import substitution or demand elimination in each case, and maintain a dashboard of progress for each line item.

Government cannot do this as it will be an overtly hostile act that they are not up for. Military can't do this. It is up to us ordinary Indians to run this.

Step up, BRFites.

There are folks posting this data off Commerce Ministry databases on the economy thread. It's something I asked for weeks ago, before the recent clashes. Good timing in hindsight. Some folks are showing initiative to post this information. You'd be surprised about the mundane things we import from China for quite enormous dollar values.

As another xpost said, this conflict is a thousand miles or more from Chinese hinterland. They see it as something they can simply do at leisure. Diplomatic spats ? Sure, they have plenty they can also do. India also already does a lot. People make a big show of welcoming the Dalai Lama elsewhere. A 2-day visit is a show of defiance. That is funny. The entire Tibetan government has been run from India for 2 generations now.

Diplomatic moves effectively lose impact from the moment they are applied, and over time become the new normal.

A continuous removal of economic surplus is the opposite. It starts out smaller, but the losses hit their pocketbooks 3000km away, and keep mounting over time, and there's nothing they can do about it. As mentioned repeatedly, if they start a tariff war, they'll run out of things to sanction long before us. And we largely export ore and intermediate goods that can just as well feed our industry stepping into its place.

My view remains that the government must deliberately target every major Chinese import category starting with more 'invisible' things like chemical goods, fertilizers and the like, whose annual import value adds to 10s of billions right now.

[abhik]

I think it's timer to start asking what we have done in last 6 years rather than what was done in previous 60 years. There are many great ideas posted here over the years about neutralizing china threat. But hardly anything has been done apart from some piece meal actions here and there. Do the powers that be simply not think that the chinese are threat? Are they under the impression that they are a reliable partner who we can make deals with?
Else this thread will be reduced another outlet for impotent rage (like the threads we used to have after every pak sponsered terror attack).

[Venky]

Since China is still the world's factory and need trade, what would happen if India and other countries imposed these conditions:
1.the Chinese exporter has to submit a declaration that goods made based on ILO standard wages as applicable to China.
2. Level of govt subsidy received in making n selling the goods.
3. A political declaration that the Chinese exporter recognises the UN charter and two China policy

Theyvwouldcretsluste but the world may have less to lose

[VKumar]

Do you know that China has many non-tariff barriers to clear some of which are nearly impossible and beyond most industries. If India simply asks all electrical gadgets to be BIS certified with ISI mark, it will be a good start.

[chetak]

Since China is still the world's factory and need trade, what would happen if India and other countries imposed these conditions:
1.the Chinese exporter has to submit a declaration that goods made based on ILO standard wages as applicable to China.
2. Level of govt subsidy received in making n selling the goods.
3. A political declaration that the Chinese exporter recognises the UN charter and two China policy

Theyvwouldcretsluste but the world may have less to lose

sirji,

please be legible.

[sanjaykumar]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1269512248847785984


China ties the knot with Pakistan while India helplessly looks on.

[mappunni]

Huawei has an R&D facility in Bengaluru. What is being done about it? Should they not be thrown out?

[csaurabh]

Can anyone tell me exactly why soldiers were fighting with clubs or other melee weapons?

[ricky_v]

Probably not the right thread, if there is a china watch thread, shift there
https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/ ... in-damage/

orrential June downpours inundating southeast China have triggered destructive floods, leaving 63 people dead or missing and causing at least $2.9 billion in damage, according to the China Ministry of Emergency Management. The floods have destroyed 7,300 homes, damaged another 138,000, and forced evacuations of nearly 500,000 people.

According to statistics from insurance broker Aon, the damage tally from flooding in China at this point in the month ranks as Earth’s third-most-expensive weather disaster of 2020, behind the $15 billion price tag of Cyclone Amphan (India/Bangladesh) and the $3.1 billion cost of an April severe weather outbreak in the U.S.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/integrity ... it-as-safe

China’s Three Gorges Dam, the world’s biggest and most controversial hydropower structure, was rumored to have been cracking and splitting as people posted satellite images of the structure last week. Chinese officials stated the structure was sound, denying online rumors that the construction was at risk of collapse.

Safety experts of the government-run China Three Gorges Corporation said on its official website that the dam had warped a few millimeters due to temperature and water level changes, but the changes were well within their normal range of safety indicators, Reuters reported.

Will the belly of the dragon drip water?

[hanumadu]

Huawei has an R&D facility in Bengaluru. What is being done about it? Should they not be thrown out?

Why? If they wan't to keep it running even while we cancel Huawei orders, what goes of my father only?

[nvishal]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1269512248847785984


China ties the knot with Pakistan while India helplessly looks on.

China is a civilization
India is a civilization
Russia is a civilization
The west is a civilization
The middle east is a civilization

Pakistan belongs neither to the Indian civilisation or the Arab. It is essentially a pariah that is in hostile terms with India to wrestle the civilisation throne from India. Many Indians(on BR itself) still cannot figure out whether the pakis want Kashmir or Delhi.

Understand these simple rules first:

1) Two individual civilisations cannot become allies. You cannot expect the western and/or Russian civilization to come to the aid of India. They have no reason to. In fact, they will prefer less contenders.

2) A civilization cannot exist on the borders(a neighbour) of another civilization. Many BR members still do not understand why the pakis and han Chinese are in hostile terms with India because they do not understand the basics.

3) When two civilizations meets, they will clash. This is the natural order.

-------

The rules are simple. If the Indian civilisation cannot defend itself and its borders, it should cease to exist. It should give up its gods/religions/culture/language/festivals/food habits etc. It should either convert to an arab civilization or a Chinese or a Russian or a western.

Do understand that once you convert(like the pakis, malaysians, turkish etc), you are no longer a civilization. All existing civilizations are fused with their race and origin culture. Just because pakis(muslims on any part of hind) have divorced from the Indian civilisation and embraced Arab civilization, it doesn't make them Arab. The pakis will receive no security guarantees from its host civilization. They have no power in global politics.

The han Chinese cannot completely secure(enslave) the Tibetan colony without enslaving the Tibetan pockets within Indian borders. And the Chinese civilisation will not tolerate the Russian and Indian civilizations on its border.

[darshan]

China Loses WTO Dispute To EU Over Market-Economy Status, May Be Slapped With High Anti-Dumping Tariffs
https://swarajyamag.com/insta/china-los ... ng-tariffs

In a landmark development, China has lost a dispute to the European Union at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) for a market economy status, as the former allowed the dispute to lapse.

The development comes after four years of battle for the market-economy status by China. The designation would have put the country in a stronger position in respect of its commercial and trade partners.

A note by the WTO Secretariat said China allowed the dispute to lapse. "At the request of China, the panel suspended its work on 14 June 2019 (WT/DS516/13). Since the panel has not been requested to resume its work, pursuant to Article 12.12 of the DSU, the authority for establishment of the panel lapsed as of 15 June 2020," read the Secretariat's note.

[KLNMurthy]

Huawei has an R&D facility in Bengaluru. What is being done about it? Should they not be thrown out?

Why? If they wan't to keep it running even while we cancel Huawei orders, what goes of my father only?

Can India nationalize Chinese manufacturing and r&d facilities in India?

[KLNMurthy]

^Given that the attack seems preplanned with medieval weapons I don’t think CCP cares much about economic retaliation. All this is an attempt to display sheer disdain for anyone and everyone and impose itself as a military power globally. Having said that India should retaliate both economically and militarily.

Everything I am reading about this tells me that “did China consider the possibility of India’s economic retaliation and then decide that the risk was worth it?” Is a bad way to frame the question.

What it looks like, to me, is that from China’s POV (shout out to Ravi_B’s concise insights), it is only punishing a natural vassal, to teach it to not step out of line and ally with the US. The possibility of Indian economic warfare doesn’t occur to China. It remains willfully deaf even if every Indian openly tells it that India will do this.

We think China doesn’t mind taking the risk of economic warfare because that’s the way we would think, it is a question we would put to ourselves.

Does it really happen that a nation of 1.5B people like China, with considerable cognitive skills, would make such a ghastly and comprehensive error of framing the question? The answer is emphatically yes. Look at the root causes of most major conflicts in history—the two parties are often on completely different wavelengths, and each one hardly recognizes the possibility of there being another wavelength.

I am convinced that’s what is happening here: Indians may think they are powerless before China because they believe that China, like Indians would have done, already gamed India’s will and ability to wage economic warfare, and factored it in, so it is pointless for India to wage a war that the enemy would win anyway.

In the meantime, the Chinese can’t even conceive of economic or any kind of retaliation by India, they think they are only chastising India to keep it in line.

Under such a scenario, I think the side that is more sure of itself and its values, while being open to understanding the perspective of the other side, will win.

I am willing to bet on India’s ancestral wisdom that India will be that side.

[KLNMurthy]

The jokers require a crisis to cancel a contract which has done only 20% in 4 years. If the crisis did not happen they would have continued. Looks like no due diligence done when contract awarded.

Never mind. The good news is that they canceled it now.

[nandakumar]

KLNMurthy wrote:
"Indians may think they are powerless before China because they believe that China, like Indians would have done, already gamed India’s will and ability to wage economic warfare, and factored it in, so it is pointless for India to wage a war that the enemy would win anyway."
I can testify to this with my own personal experience. As an undergraduate student, I was taking the final exam on "Mathematical Economics". There was a problem in Economics involving the application of Differential Equations to solve a particular problem. The question carried 25 marks but it really involved the most rudimentary aspect of Differential Equations. So, in 3 or 4 steps one could have arrived at the answer. Now, I did have this nagging doubt if the examiner would have been so naive as to set a 25 mark question that involved arriving at the answer in four easy steps. But I didn't have the luxury of not talking a chance and attempting to answer some other question where I was sure of the steps in solving the problem. So I took a chance and answered that question that seemed fraught with risk. After the exam got over the students gathered around to discuss the question paper. One of my class mates asked me what did I do about that particular question. I explained to him the four steps to arrive at the answer. Imagine my surprise when this classmate of mine said, " Hey I knew that approach too. But thought that a question that carried 25 marks couldn't have been that simple. So decided to leave that in choice and took up some other question." He was cursing his luck for a long time after the exam.
It was symptomatic of a behaviour where we are not completely in possession of all the knowledge that is necessary to respond correctly to a situation. In that particular case it was the absence of full knowledge about fundamental principles of Differential Equations and Economic context to which it can be applied.

[Sonugn]

Slightly dated article from wired, regarding the equifax, anthem, marriott hacks by China, certainly worth a read:-

https://www.wired.com/story/china-equif ... acks-data/

China’s alleged hacking efforts have borne fruit just as big data and artificial intelligence combine to make those massive databases useful, sortable, and studiable. As Barr said on Monday, “This data has economic value, and these thefts can feed China’s development of artificial intelligence tools as well as the creation of intelligence targeting packages.”

Indeed, what has long worried intelligence professionals as the scope of China’s data ambitions became clear is not the size of each individual theft—even though all four rank among the largest and most serious data breaches ever—it’s the ways that the layers of the data build upon one another.

The OPM breach exposed the personnel records of effectively every civilian employee of the US government, some 21 million people; they included not just key identifiers like names and Social Security numbers but also the comprehensive forms known as SF-86s, which are used in the process of granting employees security clearance and can contain all manner of sensitive information, from drug use and debts to foreign travel.

By combining personnel data with travel records, health records, and credit information, Chinese intelligence has amassed in just five years a database more detailed than any nation has ever possessed about one of its adversaries. The data and its layers work both to identify existing US intelligence officers through their personnel records and travel patterns as well as to identify potential weaknesses—through background checks, credit scores, and health records—of intelligence targets China may someday hope to recruit.

[darshan]

What's there to suspect? Indian streets are full of chinese products.


PMO seeks product-wise details of Chinese imports, commerce ministry suspects China is routing its products through other countries
https://www.opindia.com/2020/06/pm-offi ... ar-bharat/

Amidst the ongoing LAC standoff and the diplomatic tensions with China, the Prime Minister’s Office has sought product-wise details of cheap imports, tax disadvantages (if any) and comparison with the domestic prices from all sectors. The aim is to curb low-quality shipments, especially from China, to promote manufacturing at the domestic level under Atmanirbhar Bharat.

[darshan]

All Chinese neighbors should be doing whatever necessary to secure borders if smart.


As China Clashes With India, Japan Begins Process To Fully Integrate Island Chain Beijing Has Its Eyes On
https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/as-c ... ts-eyes-on
A week after Chinese troops initiated a violent attack on Indian soldiers over the disputed Line of Actual Control in Ladakh, Japan began the legal process of complete integration of an island chain that Beijing has for long set its eyes on.

The Ishigaki city council in Okinawa prefecture approved a bill that strengthened Japan's control over the uninhabited island group called Senkakus, 1,931 km southwest of Tokyo.

[Suraj]

What's there to suspect? Indian streets are full of chinese products.

PMO seeks product-wise details of Chinese imports, commerce ministry suspects China is routing its products through other countries
https://www.opindia.com/2020/06/pm-offi ... ar-bharat/

Amidst the ongoing LAC standoff and the diplomatic tensions with China, the Prime Minister’s Office has sought product-wise details of cheap imports, tax disadvantages (if any) and comparison with the domestic prices from all sectors. The aim is to curb low-quality shipments, especially from China, to promote manufacturing at the domestic level under Atmanirbhar Bharat.

Spectacular. The wheels of the economic moves are indeed in progress!

[KLNMurthy]

I am seeing confirmed leftists on WhatsApp suddenly worrying about the ecological destruction due to the activities on LAC, and how it is imperative that the conflict be ended ASAP to prevent environmental catastrophe. Because that is THE MOST CRITICAL thing. Don't think this psywar tactic has yet been reported on this forum here. I think it is a good tactic, as most Indians would be for "peace" and environmental preservation.

FWIW I responded by pointing out that any ecological damage is entirely on China, as we as Indians know perfectly well that we have no wish to dominate or otherwise harm China, and if China would get out of the Himalayas, the environment would flourish.