India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

ragupta · Post by **ragupta** » 22 Jun 2020 05:07

khan wrote:I just got done reading another piece on Nitin Gokhale’s Bahrat Shakti blaming it all on “rogue commander” General Zhao Zongqi.

IMO, this is a fundamental misunderstanding of how the Chinese operate. Their Army is full of General Zhao’s pushing their own initiative, if it works, General Zhao gets a promotion & everyone takes credit (including Xi).

If it doesn’t work, then they’ll just scape-goat him (if there are any consequences at all) & find a new General who will try something else. The cycle will rinse & repeat - blaming one General for this is naive IMO.

No different than any corporate world or military leadership in history

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 22 Jun 2020 05:35

I remember seeing many years ago, an IA recruitment advert in some magazine or newspaper, on the back drop of commandos rappelling out of a chopper, the following punch line :

INDIAN ARMY
BREAKS THE WILL OF THE ENEMY

If anyone doubted that, they can go ask the Chinese now

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Jun 2020 05:39

Please issue 3 day bans.
Thanks. Ramana

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Jun 2020 05:52

khan wrote:
Armuan wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7rNOHc6h1U
Interesting views from Subramanian Swamy.
...
He says a big contributor for this standoff is driven by the differences/power play between PLA and CCP. He says PLA, unlike CCP, is not interested in politics otherwise and they never were.
...
Xi spent years purging the PLA & putting his hand-picked people in there. His information might be dated.

I agree its foolish to think there is a difference between Xi Jinping and PLA. This is not a rogue operation.

1 If so what were the objectives of Galwan River Valley attack?
2 Why were special forces from Eastern China brought?
3 What were all those trucks doing nearby?
4 What's the story about stopping the Galwan river flow?

5 Why was there a meltdown on BRF and by Twitter handles?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Jun 2020 05:59

Philip and Sanjay,

There was Chinese scholar Hu Shih who wrote quite a lot about "Indianization of Chinese Culture" in the 1920s. He was considered a Chinese Renaissance leader to assert Sinicization of Chinese culture. He bemoans that gor 2000 years, China effectively was a cultural outpost of Indian civilization.

Try to google for the 2 volume collectedvworks published by Uty of Heidelberg.

Mao took his writings and launched Cultural Revolution to erase Indianmimfluence.

Our idiots under Communist bias did not understand what was it all about.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 22 Jun 2020 06:01

Ramana, I think it was he who wrote that India conquered China without firing a shot.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 22 Jun 2020 06:10

khan wrote:Shiv Aroor keeps saying that the IA is focused on Pangong Lake fingers. IMO that is a side-show compared to what could happen in the Depsang plains & there has been clear signaling of this, with the Chinese talking about their light tanks, India responding with Mig-29 & Apache in Leh, then the Chinese (perhaps) responding by moving J-10 to POK.

J-10s in Skardu may not be a rumor. But 40 is exaggeration. May be 10 to 15.

williams · Post by **williams** » 22 Jun 2020 06:11

SS is probably thinking about a few in the politburo who wanted to keep the status quo in LAC. With 11 in the helm of affairs now, those voices should already be shutdown. Remember GT analysts have already thrown a subtle threat that TSP, Nepal, and China can do join op against India. So they can dream.

If Chinese assets are moved to TSP we should simply focus on neutralizing them before moving anything in the east. What can be done to Balakot can easily be done to Skardu. Unlike with China, we have sat surveillance capability to watch the entire TSP 24x7. Nepal needs some political maneuvering that MEA folks can manage.

khan · Post by **khan** » 22 Jun 2020 06:12

ramana wrote:
I agree its foolish to think there is a difference between Xi Jinping and PLA. This is not a rogue operation.

1 If so what were the objectives of Galwan River Valley attack?

To me it is pretty obvious, that it was to capture the entirety of Galwan valley - first by force & then deception.

ramana wrote:2 Why were special forces from Eastern China brought?

To help take over the Galwan valley by force, these were apparently martial arts experts.

ramana wrote: 3 What were all those trucks doing nearby?

My guess is troop transports (they also have to bring in tents etc). They are doing a lot of construction activity. Maybe they also want to do a swarm attack at some point.

The fact they haven’t left, tells us that they haven’t given up on their Galwan objective.

ramana wrote: 4 What's the story about stopping the Galwan river flow?

Raj47 the retired Army Colonel who spent a career studying satellite imagery is of the view that they deepened the Galwan River so it would be narrower, thereby allowing them more room on the River bed for vehicular movement. My guess is the damming might have been temporary to facilitate this.

https://twitter.com/rajfortyseven/statu ... 90690?s=21

ramana wrote: 5 Why was there a meltdown on BRF and by Twitter handles?

All I did was share my thoughts on US intervening in this fight & people started attacking me. Not sure what’s happening on Twitter.

Happy to be able to post this & not been banned yet.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 22 Jun 2020 06:18

---POST DELTED----

khan · Post by **khan** » 22 Jun 2020 06:23

Another obeservation, the twitter feed of China’s wolf diplomat & his acolytes, looks like a China-TSP ***** flick:

- Pinned tweet: https://twitter.com/zlj517/status/12636 ... 33126?s=21
- https://twitter.com/tangtianru/status/1 ... 41633?s=21
- https://twitter.com/tangtianru/status/1 ... 44352?s=21
- https://twitter.com/cnpakww/status/1273 ... 38721?s=21

But the Pakistani’s themselves (atleast officially and best I can tell) don’t seem to be reciprocating, no saber rattling.

Maybe they know that in a situation like this, India has no problem being pre-emotive with them.

It’s just really strange what’s going on here.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 22 Jun 2020 06:23

Eleven will hit an escalation button. there should no more illusion about it. They lost 100 and mostly from 1 child families. He has to answer them even though it is all brutal. How would he motivate his army if he does not show win? Wiebo (Chinese Twitter) is agog with depression. So China will escalate and that is a given. When and how is at their timing. India has options. (1) mercilessly hit Pakis and take land towards CPEC (2) do a surprise attack and occupy where Chinese are vulunerable.

Weaknesses - IAF.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Jun 2020 06:26

Khan, Thanks for your answers. So they want to capture the Galwan River Valley and even fird it.
Why was this their objective?

As for meltdown you hardly were alone and thanks for the mea culpa.
Appreciate the honesty.

Sanjay no need for Shruti Hasan picture.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 22 Jun 2020 06:28

sanjaykumar wrote:Okay, I feel badly about the possibility of being misconstrued in an earlier post.

I did not mean to mock Chinese women and cosmetic procedures. I hope I never sink that low.

What is the point of this post? You are banned for three days.

khan · Post by **khan** » 22 Jun 2020 06:29

ramana wrote:Khan, Thanks for your answers. So they want to capture the Galwan River Valley and even fird it.
Why was this their objective?

They want to dominate DBO Road & have eyes on it.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Jun 2020 06:33

Muppalla wrote:Eleven will hit an escalation button. there should no more illusion about it. They lost 100 and mostly from 1 child families. He has to answer them even though it is all brutal. How would he motivate his army if he does not show win? Wiebo (Chinese Twitter) is agog with depression. So China will escalate and that is a given. When and how is at their timing. India has options. (1) mercilessly hit Pakis and take land towards CPEC (2) do a surprise attack and occupy where Chinese are vulunerable.

Weaknesses - IAF.

Well Gagan Shakti showed can handle with some pinch.
As for Wiebo they can boo themselves.

Am trying to say Galwan Valley was prelude to something bigger.
And was defeated with out firearms.

Defeat has consequences. Xi has to pay..

He took a gamble and lost.

The 16 Bihar led retaliation was a surgical strike that killed many PLA special forces.
This is lost here and on SM.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Jun 2020 06:33

Do what by dominating DBO road?

Why the trucks?

khan · Post by **khan** » 22 Jun 2020 06:42

ramana wrote:Do what by dominating DBO road?

Why the trucks?

Having Artillery spotters within LOS of the DBO road. That would be my guess.

Trucks to move all those people. Apparently there were at-least 300 people there. They are 100 km from the main road - over rough terrain.

They travel heavy, with oxygen tents etc. That’s my guess. There is also construction equipment that needs moving, servicing etc.

Am I missing something?

Added later: Are you implying that the trucks are carrying heavier infantry weapons? LMG’s etc?

Sanju · Post by **Sanju** » 22 Jun 2020 07:04

I think they were trying to interdict our feeder line/road to Siachen, which if they were successful would have left us only with the Air Bridge.

This objective would made our hold tenous on Siachen and made our aim of taking over GB that much harder.

The trucks were meant for them to station their troops permanently here? Was it meant as a link up with the Paki forces, thus cutting off our troops in Siachen?

williams · Post by **williams** » 22 Jun 2020 07:53

Sanju wrote:I think they were trying to interdict our feeder line/road to Siachen, which if they were successful would have left us only with the Air Bridge.

This objective would made our hold tenous on Siachen and made our aim of taking over GB that much harder.

The trucks were meant for them to station their troops permanently here? Was it meant as a link up with the Paki forces, thus cutting off our troops in Siachen?

One Plausible explanation is to cut off the road to DBO but it does not make sense. There are IA posts throughout the road and LAC lies 5 km away from the road in Galwan valley, Any Chinese post that can supply this area is 20 km away, and holding your position here is hard.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 22 Jun 2020 07:56

I think the trucks were laden with explosives & mines. Their Special Forces would reach Shyok river, and put explosives at vulnerable points along the DS-DBO road, and then go back leaving a trail of booby traps and mines behind them.

Blast the road they consider to be an affront, and kill/maim any Indian soldiers who would pursue them along the Galwan river bed.

Larry Walker · Post by **Larry Walker** » 22 Jun 2020 07:56

Look at Galwan in conjunction with Depsang. If they interdict and dominate DSDBO road when they attack through Depsang - then we are in trouble.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 22 Jun 2020 08:26

Exactly, then Shyok river becomes the border as some of their spokespersons have claimed recently.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 22 Jun 2020 08:46

A huge plus to come out of the Galwan confrontation is the ROE have changed to allow the use of firearms when warranted. And that has been communicated to the Chinese via military and diplomatic channels.

khan · Post by **khan** » 22 Jun 2020 08:49

ldev wrote:A huge plus to come out of the Galwan confrontation is the ROE have changed to allow the use of firearms when warranted. And that has been communicated to the Chinese via military and diplomatic channels.

Yes, this no-arms policy is very good for aggressors, not so good for defenders. If they want something, let them take the disproportionate casualties.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 22 Jun 2020 08:52

Larry Walker wrote:Look at Galwan in conjunction with Depsang. If they interdict and dominate DSDBO road when they attack through Depsang - then we are in trouble.

As of today with the minimal road infrastructure they have leading up the DBO border it will be impossible for them to sustain ground operations. Their light Type 15 tanks will be outmatched by the IA and IAF combination of the T-72 and the Apache with Hellfire even if they provide support via their own Z-10 attack helicopters. So they will need to bring in air support and that is where I think the J-10 move to Skardu comes in. And it is 100% certain that they will try and interdict the DSDBO road in that case.

khan · Post by **khan** » 22 Jun 2020 08:53

ldev wrote:
Larry Walker wrote:Look at Galwan in conjunction with Depsang. If they interdict and dominate DSDBO road when they attack through Depsang - then we are in trouble.
As of today with the minimal road infrastructure they have leading up the DBO border it will be impossible for them to sustain ground operations. Their light Type 15 tanks will be outmatched by the IA and IAF combination of the T-72 and the Apache with Hellfire even if they provide support via their own Z-10 attack helicopters. So they will need to bring in air support and that is where I think the J-10 move to Skardu comes in.

Apparently, they are furiously building 2 roads.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 22 Jun 2020 08:56

khan wrote:
ldev wrote: As of today with the minimal road infrastructure they have leading up the DBO border it will be impossible for them to sustain ground operations. Their light Type 15 tanks will be outmatched by the IA and IAF combination of the T-72 and the Apache with Hellfire even if they provide support via their own Z-10 attack helicopters. So they will need to bring in air support and that is where I think the J-10 move to Skardu comes in.
Apparently, they are furiously building 2 roads.

So I have heard, but I am wondering from where exactly on the G-219 they are building these roads. Also it is a question of timing. Will they be able to complete those roads before winter this year? If yes then there could be a hot war. If not, then we are looking at next year but then a lot can change geopolitically during that time.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 22 Jun 2020 09:00

1990s contour maps of:

1) Depsang Plain (top, left): https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... ul_Tso.jpg

2) Galwan River and Valley: http://legacy.lib.utexas.edu/maps/ams/i ... -44-05.jpg

3) Pangong Tso: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... ng_Tso.jpg

Should be able to get such detailed maps of other areas if needed.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 22 Jun 2020 09:08

Sanju wrote:I think they were trying to interdict our feeder line/road to Siachen, which if they were successful would have left us only with the Air Bridge.

This objective would made our hold tenous on Siachen and made our aim of taking over GB that much harder.

The trucks were meant for them to station their troops permanently here? Was it meant as a link up with the Paki forces, thus cutting off our troops in Siachen?

This is easier said than done. They'd still need to deal with Saser La, through which there is no proper road. No way they'll be able to build a road within the duration a short campaign, given that the road would have to be build on glaciers (BRO had said something about building the world's first glaciated road here, so I assume it would be a difficult task to do even under normal circumstances, let alone during a war). Only if they manage to get to Sasoma can they actually threaten our hold on Siachen. Coming from the south along the Shyok river is a non-starter - we have too many well entrenched positions along this route.

My guess, and perhaps what ramana sir is hinting at, is that there is an alternative route to Gilgit via the Shaksgam or Yarkhand rivers, which they are looking to develop. The access to this route seems to be just beyond the Karakoram pass, and they don't was us to be in a position to threaten it.

ramana wrote:Do what by dominating DBO road?

To make our position in SSN untenable? From Google earth, I can see the G219 goes quite close to the Yarkhand river valley, maybe they want to build an alternate route into Gilgit via the this route? The Yarkhand river goes just to the north-west of Karakoram pass, so we'd be able to dominate it as long as we hold the pass. So by threatening our hold on SSN, they buy the depth to build a defendable route. But this road is to serve what purpose, I don't know - maybe they want to dam some river(s) there and divert the waters. But given that Yarkhand anyway goes into the Hotan prefecture, they can build a dam at a more convenient location. Have to study this more.

symontk · Post by **symontk** » 22 Jun 2020 09:12

ldev wrote:
Larry Walker wrote:Look at Galwan in conjunction with Depsang. If they interdict and dominate DSDBO road when they attack through Depsang - then we are in trouble.
As of today with the minimal road infrastructure they have leading up the DBO border it will be impossible for them to sustain ground operations. Their light Type 15 tanks will be outmatched by the IA and IAF combination of the T-72 and the Apache with Hellfire even if they provide support via their own Z-10 attack helicopters. So they will need to bring in air support and that is where I think the J-10 move to Skardu comes in. And it is 100% certain that they will try and interdict the DSDBO road in that case.

As I mentioned here before the clashes, it was all about Siachen. Pakistan needs some victory to go on as a nation. Only place they can have their victory or show to their people that they mauled Indian armed forces, is in Kashmir. They will get sound thrashing if they come to war in plains. So they sought chinese help. Chinese with their own needs are moving pawns according to that

The maps of DBO, Galwan valley, PangGong Tso, show their clear strategy

Again as I mentioned earlier, I wouldnt be surprised if they are making their naval moves in BoB

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 22 Jun 2020 09:18

Jarita wrote:Only part of Kishore Madhubani argument one buys is that India should not play Unkils game in Asia. We have to be tactful but we cannot suffer territorial losses. The ball is in China's court. They simply cannot relentlessly grab their neighbours territory and then cry "don't let uncle sam in". It works both ways.

I have watched a few of his interviews. The dude is totally a PRC shill. One thing that he cannot or will not understand is why should India play ball with PRC. When PRC has occupied Aksi chin, has not demarcated the border and keeps on changing the status quo on the LAC.

When faced with such a scenario can India really be expected to deliberately cut it self off from any source of support??

For any rational Human being the answer will be a resounding no. But not for this gentleman. That alone makes me question his ability to be realistic analyst.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 22 Jun 2020 09:48

khan wrote:
vimal wrote:
Isn't Skardu within the range of Pinakas?
Its only 100km from Kargil, there are multiple ways to take it out if the balloon goes up.

Skardu would have very little warning of incoming aircraft (unless there is an AWAC overhead), because their approach will be masked by
the mountains. Not a good idea to station fighters there - though they did try it during the Kargil war. For the same reason we don't have fighters
at Thoise.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 22 Jun 2020 10:20

A couple of points that we seem to have overlooked when talking of conventional war:

China prefers to win without fighting (a Sun Tzu thing apparently) and preferably without knowing China is fighting them.
That strategy has succeeded so far and they have won thru unfair trade, intimidation, propaganda, economic threats etc.
No one has as yet hurt China in a trade war - which is where China's dominance over us is highest.

If China gets into any military conflict with us and does not win, they lose - because they are conditioned into believing that they are far superior
and they face a backward people with obsolete equipment. China saying we are in their territory will backfire on them, if they continue to make that claim after a few weeks (since they have not dislodged us by then. In this context, I feel we can do a reverse salami slice (maybe reclaim what we lost in the UPA era) and sit tight, while the Chinese also start feeling some pressure from reduced access to Indian markets.

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 22 Jun 2020 10:35

Why all this now?
1. Galwan river is the closest LAC is to the DSDBO road, and Chinese have laid claim to the "entire valley", in order to make a push to slice the road or at least observe/target it from up close. The choice of location is not surprising now, although I don't think our military calculus really expected them to work through a long river valley with unstable cliffs given how they would be sitting ducks both for us and for geology & gravity.
2. This reeks of an upstart general's ambition to climb the ranks with one last win before he hangs up his uniform and heads off to Beijing. As I said before, the PLA is a rogue army - there is an overall directive but nothing prevents ambitious individuals from trying their own "skunk works" programs to forward their careers. This explains the recent injection of the commando team from Jinan who had no experience dealing with Indians.
3. I don't see any grand strategy in building an alternative road to KKH. The current road to Pakistan is good enough - more than plenty to ship mangoes, arms and brides.
4. Overall there is a realization that it may be now or never to prevent India from hardening the boundaries; in their mind once we have fixed our fences with China, we will naturally look at GB/PoK. Pakis, who know us much better, must have also told them this fact.

What we need to do:
1. Deliver a punishing message to the Chinese mercantile empire to keep their military in check. Every passing day without hard action is an affront to the memory of the 20 men. This is not to decouple from them, but to put pain.
2. Stay vigilant and be prepared for localized actions which will be executed by chosen hotheads like the guys from Jinan.
3. Most importantly, this will be a long waiting game and we should not overdeploy and burn out.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 22 Jun 2020 10:39

To put China's willingness to get into a shooting war in perspective - Taiwan (the adversary they would most like to war with) has 2 islands off the
Chinese coast within artillery range of the PLA and claimed by China. Taiwan has manned the islands with a few hundred soldiers, opposite whom, on the Chinese mainland is a PLA group army and enough amphibious capability to invade the islands. The Chinese haven't done so.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 22 Jun 2020 10:39

Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

The quotes below are from Sardar Patel, one month before his death in 1950. So Sardar Patel learned something about the Chinese in 1950. 70 years later why is India surprised at Chinese behavior and actions?

Jeff M. Smith
@Cold_Peace_
"The Chinese Government has tried to delude us by professions of peaceful intention...even though we regard ourselves as the friends of China, the Chinese do not regard us as their friends." - India's Sardar Patel, one month before his death in 1950.

"The tragedy of it is that the Tibetans put faith in us; they chose to be guided by us; and we have been unable to get them out of the meshes of Chinese diplomacy or Chinese malevolence."

"We have done everything we could to assuage Chinese feelings, to allay its apprehensions and to defend its legitimate claims in our discussions and correspondence with America and Britain and in the UN. Inspite of this, China is not convinced about our disinterestedness"

"it continues to regard us with suspicion and the whole psychology is one, at least outwardly, of scepticism perhaps mixed with a little hostility. I doubt if we can go any further than we have done already to convince China of our good intentions, friendliness and goodwill."

"Their last telegram to us is an act of gross discourtesy not only in the summary way it disposes of our protest against the entry of Chinese forces into Tibet but also in the wild insinuation that our attitude is determined by foreign influences."

"It looks as though it is not a friend speaking in that language but a potential enemy."

"The undefined state of the frontier and the existence on our side of a population with its affinities to the Tibetans or Chinese have all the elements of the potential trouble"

"Recent and bitter history also tells us that Communism is no shield against imperialism and that the communists are as good or as bad imperialists as any other."

"While our western and north-western threat to security is still as prominent as before, a new threat has developed from the north and north-east. Thus, for the first time, after centuries, India's defence has to concentrate itself on two fronts simultaneously."

"Our defence measures have so far been based on the calculations of superiority over Pakistan. In our calculations we shall now have to reckon with...a communist China which has definite ambitions and aims and which does not, in any way, seem friendly disposed towards us."

habal · Post by **habal** » 22 Jun 2020 10:41

they are not conditioned into believing anything. The Han Chinese believed they were superior to the primitive, barbarian, smelly northern mongol hordes before being attacked and overwhelmed by the mongols who until then were believed to be medieval, violent & disruptive by the mainland hans but then these very mongol hordes subjugated the Chinese and their yuan dynasty and subsequent ming & qing manchu vassals ruled over China and the urbane, southern Han citizens for hundreds of years years till 20th century british colonization

The Chinese kung fu movies aptly portray the mings, qings etc as the villains the han upstart hero underdog fights against and overcome with innovative kung fu. The manchus & mongols are usually shown with long hair braided behind and having moustaches. The Han hero is always clean shaven and depends upon his shaolin(ha) skills to overcome the physically powerful and better endowed northern Chinese/mongol.

So the Chinese are afraid that the Indians of all their neighbours have this ability to do a Kublai on them, and that will always be at the back of their heads. Make no mistake of this and this feeling is reinforced by 16 Bihar exploits. This fear will make them do drastic stuff.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 22 Jun 2020 10:53

From China's point of view, when planning this, they probably anticipated that India would face many other challenges that would preclude any aggressive response on our part. We have certainly faced arguably more challenges than any major country has faced since WW2. Namely:
1. Covid (3rd highest no of cases and growing)
2. The economy which was in bad shape earlier, is now in serious danger
3. Anti CAA/NRC protests have united BIF's. Loss of several states have increased internal opposition.
4. Two cyclones
5. Locust invasion
6. Border tensions - LOC, Nepal and now LAC.

The only thing which I believe did not go to plan was the assumption that Kashmir will burn once spring starts and infiltration and stone pelting resume. In reality this has been our best summer in 30 odd years - in terms of ratio of terrorist : Security forces+civilian deaths.

if we can handle China despite all these challenges, I don't believe China will attempt it again, particularly, if they are made to pay a price this time.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 22 Jun 2020 10:56

2. This reeks of an upstart general's ambition to climb the ranks with one last win before he hangs up his uniform and heads off to Beijing. As I said before, the PLA is a rogue army - there is an overall directive but nothing prevents ambitious individuals from trying their own "skunk works" programs to forward their careers. This explains the recent injection of the commando team from Jinan who had no experience dealing with Indians.

This is an incorrect assessment. The CCP with Xi as head has forced the PLA to take a loyalty oath to him as head of the PLA. The Chinese are consolidating their position in the wake of COVID-19. They're making trouble in the South China Sea, Taiwan and India. The USN has moved three aircraft carriers strike groups to the South China Sea. The USS Roosevelt, Nimitz and Reagan.

For India there is a clear and present danger and we should not ignore statements of the Chinese claiming all of Ladakh.