India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

[ramana]

Rahul ShivShankar on TimesNow has a very good explanation of all the new pink structures on the Chinese side. Most are hospital tents.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PBvL1zssiA

[williams]

[quote='YashG"]

If Chinese can stop the flow of Galwan River - that combined with their road means, they can rolldown a lot of armor through this valley opening onto DBO road. Perhaps IA has figured all of these possibilities already.

Yes that was what was figured out. Add those trucks, the green uniforms of their special forces all indicate a move to ford the Galwan River there and make a dash for DBO road and on to Leh.
Group Captain Hari Nair(R) says could be the southern pincer, the northern pincer could be from Depsang.

Why don't folks look at Depsang.
Galwan is history.[/quote]

Ramana sir, I don't know how such a pincer movement will work in this area. Usually, such movement is effective when you want to surround something of high value. Here something of value is probably the road but if you see the google map screenshot (I have added some static formation I saw based on free commercial sat maps - June 20 2020 - credit - https://eos.com/landviewer/?lat=35.3764 ... TmsSensors) I see IA has the DBO ALG in the north and Sassoma - Murgo supply route from the west. Even if they get hold of. the road, it will be very hard to hold that position with IAF bases all around. It is possible, but the Chinese general should be really crazy trying such a maneuver in this terrain.

Map Image with the approximate static formation (as of June 20. 2020) of IA and Chinese forces:
https://ibb.co/QmcL4Cn

[bharathp]

this on yahoo news:

Shah Mahmood Qureshi claimed that India was plotting an attack on Pakistan, allegedly to divert attention from a recent deadly clash between India and China in a disputed area of the Himalayas that killed at least 20 Indian soldiers. Chinese and Indian military commanders agreed on Monday to disengage their forces in the disputed area.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/pakistans-fo ... 31157.html

posted on June 24

[rkirankr]

Nope, I am worried, it will be the citizens who will let down the security forces

Kuch bhi? Even my better half is pissed off with the Chinese and saying, if the fight is without weapons even we women will go and kill the Chinese by our belans! Belan se peet peer ke maar dalenge! Neither of us has a forced background.

It is not kuch bhi. It is as someone mentioned, Netflix watching guys who act like uber jingos in SM, and run at the first sign of trouble. Will say peace. I know because , been arguing with such crackpots for few days. They exist. After June 15, panic has kicked in , and more so by boycott Chinese goods. global trade, interdependency, blah this blah that.. They are also very good communicators. Still cannot get over the shameful surrender in 1999 during hijack. Those were the days without internet and SM, imagine now? that is my concern. I am not worried about the border , the Armed forces will kick the Chinese a$$.

[Srutayus]

• - If there is a war, the world may clearly note China as the initiator, but several people in India will blame Modi not China.
  
  - If there is a war and we are victorious, we will still have causalities and several people in India will blame Modi, focus on the causalities and deflect the victory.
  
  - If we have causalities, the world may condone them, but there are people in India who will be elated even as they are today...note the Chinese hyperbaric chamber fiasco...and the number of likes from "liberal" Indians on propaganda posts from China and Pakistan in social media

This is going to be a long struggle, China is going to be the largest economy in the world, and they will be an aggressive posturing power with little internal checks. As we will be the second largest economy in the world in 10-20 years, we will be the main counter to them. Conflict is inevitable and will be prolonged, kinetic or not.

I have a few worries:
This struggle requires stamina and gumption. I am confident in our armed forces, but even France before the 2nd world war did not have such self-serving internal enemies who will undermine them at the smallest setback. Also, the analysis in the Indian media and even on Indian fora is minute-to-minute and reactive and exhibits strong emotional swings.

On the other hand the attitude of the hinterland where our soldiers are from and our soldiers themselves is heartening. They are far more grounded and secure in themselves.

[Manish_Sharma]

Chinese have more warheads and much rigorously tested warheads, in fact they put there warheads on missiles and bombers; tested them in open air.

We did quick test, which even the man in charge of MEASURING POWER OF BLAST Santanan said it's a fizzle.

Nuclear bombs won't finish nations, it will be about who recovers faster.

Shanghai total area 6,340 km²

Mumbai total area 603.4 km²

So, what would you do in this situation if you were in charge of India?

Right now window is too small to CREATE MIC fulfilling the needs of NOW & HERE, So focus solely on nuclear angle:

a.) First do few tests on some empty island near South pole, one of the test has to be from Arihant launching an SLBM with live warhead so its fully tested in environment where the missile re-enters at speeds of 26 - 27 Machs and still Warhead works.

b.) Use fissile material from ALL i mean ALL Nuclear Reactors.

c.) Give Putin order of 100 billion Dollars for garbages like FGFA, Kilos, T 14 Tanks as a cover for secret transfer of huge amount of fissile material enough to make 500 Boosted Fission Warheads.

d.) Start preparing Warheads peppered with 'Gold isotope 197' and 'Cobalt 60', there is no way the world can survive a warhead peppered with 100 kilos of 'Cobalt 60'.

e.) Get a loosemouth Defence Minister with a crazy glint in his eye to boast about the Evilness of our PEPPERED WARHEADS.

f.) Openly change No First Use Policy, to proactive First Use Policy.

e.) Start printing money like crazy and put all of it in ordering crazy amount of indigenous weapons.

g.) Break all the relations with Porkistan and China, declare Porkistan as 'Terrorist State' & China as 'Enemy State'. Call back all our personnel back from the embassies and high commissions from both those nations.

f.) As west sanctions us, I will kick out Amazon, Facebook, Twitter, McDonald, KFC, Pizza Hut from Bharat.

g.) Use resources within Bharat to create a manufacturing hub and fulfill all our needs ourselves, maybe French won't sanction and break away from us so we can fulfill most of high tech needs of ours through French.

h.) Put "Criminal enquiry commisions" Mccarthy types against most of UPA deeds and Commies. For eg. why Sonia-Rahul Signed personal deal with Chinese communist party? Why after signing of that deal immediately china was given permission to supply parts for our Doppler Radars on ports?

[Pashupatastra]

Kuch bhi? Even my better half is pissed off with the Chinese and saying, if the fight is without weapons even we women will go and kill the Chinese by our belans! Belan se peet peer ke maar dalenge! Neither of us has a forced background.

It is not kuch bhi. It is as someone mentioned, Netflix watching guys who act like uber jingos in SM, and run at the first sign of trouble. Will say peace. I know because , been arguing with such crackpots for few days. They exist. After June 15, panic has kicked in , and more so by boycott Chinese goods. global trade, interdependency, blah this blah that.. They are also very good communicators. Still cannot get over the shameful surrender in 1999 during hijack. Those were the days without internet and SM, imagine now? that is my concern. I am not worried about the border , the Armed forces will kick the Chinese a$$.

I still remember how the nation got together to support our forces at Kargil by preparing food packets to be sent to soldiers. Force is not a revenue earner but an expense centre. So , the honest civilians who pay their taxes are the reason our forces are able to afford the weapons etc. If we hold so low opinion of the people , then why would the forces bother to sacrifice their life for unworthy citizens ?

[nam]

this on yahoo news:

Shah Mahmood Qureshi claimed that India was plotting an attack on Pakistan, allegedly to divert attention from a recent deadly clash between India and China in a disputed area of the Himalayas that killed at least 20 Indian soldiers. Chinese and Indian military commanders agreed on Monday to disengage their forces in the disputed area.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/pakistans-fo ... 31157.html

posted on June 24

Paks were hopping for a major Indo China war, in which they jump in or scavenge. Despite 2 months of standoff, there are no shots fired and both India & China seems to be trying to prevent escalation.

The Paks are now worried, that India has realized a real threat of two front war. If we disengage without firing a shot.. India will come after them to remove the "1" from 2 front...

[Manish_Sharma]

Just asking if we did this analysis - Arjun's ace for it to be deployed in desert is that although it's weight is much more than T-series, it's (Arjun's) ground pressure per inch is much lesser than the T-Series. So does the Chinese T-15 give them this capability for Armor to be deployed in valleys like Galwan valley ? I will make it like a armored 105mm mobile gun that can keep up with the ground elements.

That's why Vivek Ahuja in his War Scenario with Chinese, brought Arjuns as secret weapon to change the tides of war. But import pasands won't allow it.

[nam]

It is very frustrating to know that we have local solution for the threat posed by the Chinis, yet we haven't inducted them in numbers.

BM: PAD/AAD
CM: MRSAM( if it can kill yakhnot..subsonic CM is very easy) or Akash in terminal.
Long range SAM: NGARM
AWACS/Tankers: A2A NGARM
PLAAF: Astra

All local kit.. Would have increased the confidence level, so high if these were in numbers..

[KLNMurthy]

ok Manish_Sharma, thanks for giving your ideas. It's certainly a baseline by which to evaluate other approaches.

[KL Dubey]

It increasingly looks like Galwan and other LAC confrontations may wind down slowly.

I don't want to sound like a broken record, but now that we have the forces mobilized we might as well invite ourselves into Nepal citing security concerns, without any confrontations along any disputed border. That way the PLA would have spent billions to mobilize and squat on about 200 sq. meters (literally) of riverbed at the LAC for a few weeks till it is inundated...whereas we can use the mobilized forces to gain 150,000 sq. km of territory probably with no shots fired.

That will teach the commies a lesson that whenever you make India mobilize just for a show of strength, you will lose big somewhere else.

[darshan]

It is very frustrating to know that we have local solution for the threat posed by the Chinis, yet we haven't inducted them in numbers.

All local kit.. Would have increased the confidence level, so high if these were in numbers..

How does one bring this to PM's attention? One would have figured that nationalistic news outlets would have been bringing this up every hour. Once PM gets this basic information then he can call an open meeting with all involved and then go reprimand each involved.

[nachiket]

If this does lead to a conflict what will really matter is the reserves of ammo, fuel and supplies available and the infra and logistics to move men and materiel around as required, far more than individual weapon systems whether local or foreign.

[V_Raman]

If this winds down - it means we defeated them with fists without firing a single shot - talk about reverse Sun Tzu!!

Excellent movie - Fists of Galwan or Galwan ke mutthee - pardon by Hindi!

[Raveen]

If there's war between Bharat and pakistan the Western Europeans & USA can pressurise and stop us from continuing the war by simply asking both the nations to repay our loans immediately.

But they don't have any such pressure point on China; in fact usa owes them money.

So much wrong with that analysis - the US owns China's balls, not the other way around

[bharathp]

this agreement of "no firearms" may have actually helped India here - since our MIC wont be able to to keep up with years of attrition (The way we can keep up and overwhelm TSP's resources).
but now, this maybe the time our MIC may be (Finally) given the importance it actually deserves.

[KLNMurthy]

It is very frustrating to know that we have local solution for the threat posed by the Chinis, yet we haven't inducted them in numbers.

All local kit.. Would have increased the confidence level, so high if these were in numbers..

How does one bring this to PM's attention? One would have figured that nationalistic news outlets would have been bringing this up every hour. Once PM gets this basic information then he can call an open meeting with all involved and then go reprimand each involved.

There are email addresses available for this. I don’t have them to hand but probably Google is your friend.

[M_Joshi]

Some points from Google Maps. Google Maps show dated satellite imagery. And few points can be noted from there:
1) Distance from PP14 to DBO road is 6km direct. On road it must be at least 8-10 kms. Some posters were mentioning it to be 1 km which is not true. Just the Shyok riverbed from DBO is 1.2 km wide. So PP14 is still 6-7 kms from the other edge of the Shyok river.
2) There is NO direct line of sight from PP14 to DBO road. There are just too many twists & turns in the valley between DBO road & PP14 for any direct sight on the road from PP14 which is at the base of the valley.
3) Some people have been saying that this image is showing a rock defence structure in the form of a straight line on the river side where Chinese side has supposedly made the structures. This is not true. Image on Google Maps which is dated clearly shows that rock line is pre-existing. This is not part of any new defensive setup by the Chinese.
https://earth.google.com/web/search/gal ... ypebAKSGbA
4) One more minor observation is that just on the marked LAC in the above image the colour of the road changes, from brown to silver. Brown seems to be the soil layering as part of the road laying work. Whereas the same road just on the Indian side of the LAC line is same silver colour as the riverbed silver/grey rocks. If Chinese did come all the way to the tip then why was the road not extended as the back-end section till the end of PP14? Or was this picture taken just at the moment where the soil layering on road coincided with the LAC position?
5) Lastly one can clearly see Tyre marks in the above image on the part that is supposed to be in Indian control which clearly means that Indian vehicles have been upto there just recently after the bridge was completed by the Army Engg. Corps last week. Which warrants the question that if Indian Army completed that bridge & if recent tyre marks on the supposed last Indian control area are visible then why are there no Indian vehicles, set up, structures, men, etc facing this supposed Chinese camp on Indian territory directly face to face. PP14 is Indian territory then why's IA not here in the above picture even after completing that bridge?
IMO this pic leaves more questions than it answers. I would like to believe that these are Indian structures or something else altogether. It's hard to believe that after the 15th June incident IA went back to DBO road & came back after 1 week & were surprised by the Chinese structures just like we are now. How plausible is that?

[VikramS]

I think the Chinese want India to fire the first shot, so that they can paint us as the aggressor

India doesn't want to provide the Chinese the moral fig leaf that we broke the border agreement on the non-use of firearms. As a well entrenched defender, it suits us to delay any action and watch the evolving Chinese deployments.

No one cares about who is the aggressor or not. Moral fig-leaf is a mythical entity.

Pretty much anyone who has dealt with the CCP knows that they play by their own rules. They have exploited the rest of the world's appetite for access to the Chinese market.

Issue is that since the rest of the world being democratic, their leaders always have an eye on the election. This means that the pain they are willing to tolerate to tame CCP is low. CCP knows that and is exploiting that.

Beyond that, no one cares for any fig leaf or moral high ground. That the PLA armed forces are pushing the borders everywhere is an open secret.

The pressure of the democracy are all here to see in the behavior of the Congressis and the Congressi media. GOI and Armed Forces are being expected to deliver a ball by ball commentary. Nowhere have I seen such shamelessness on issues of national importance.

[Manish_Sharma]

I havent seen Arror being wrong often. His reporting has been fairly accurate & he has been a vociferous nationalist on defence matters. I have no reason to believe he is wrong here.

[/quote]

Remember aroor is servant of aroon poorie, india today has anti modi agenda. Even today aroor interview general deepak kapoor and kapoor kept saying its no big deal.

Always remember india today conclave and aroon poorie interview musharaff so submissively, but rude to General V.P. Malik. There was rumour aroon poorie paid 50 lakhs to musharaff to appear on that conclave.

[nam]

The funny thing in all these is that PLA has NO artillery which can fire at high angle and deploy-able in the mountains. It's towed artillery are field guns like our M46! It doesn't have high angle.

Then all other artillery types are SPH. It can only be deployed on flat location.

The point is: we can deploy our towed artillery on reverse slope and fire at high angle. And Chinis have no way to do counter battery (other than PLAAF).

Edit: They do have one of their ULH. However the numbers are not similar to our towed guns. They are primarily SP army.

[k prasad]

Even if the Chinese did manage to get all the way down the Galwan river to reach Shyok, India has entrenched positions on the opposite bank and will simply mow them down with targeted fire. The first wave debris of men & material destroyed will block the gully and the rest of the column behind.

To make any worthwhile pincer movement, they have to get a huge number of vehicles and men out of Galwan river bed to turn right and go North along the Shyok river. The western heights of Shook are all Indian dominated and once again, the Chinese having survived the carnage at the mouth of Galwan will be offering themselves to IA for choice target practice on the banks of the Shyok.

Well, that cuts both ways... If the PLA did capture the eastern side of the Shyok river, resupply of our troops on the heights would become significantly more difficult. Mowing down the first line does not make recapture easier, especially given the better road infrastructure to the contact point on the Chinese side. By the time our troops move to push back the first wave

Our advantage of holding the western heights is incumbent on our holding the PP14-Shyok Gully. Thats the only real way to resupply any troops on the heights. If the gully is captured, those troops are cut off. Then, control of the surrounding heights becomes easier since those are cut-off, as I mentioned. Capture and hold the ravine, and the heights will fall too. Hold the heights on either side of the ravine, and you have line of sight on a 10 km stretch of the DBO road. Considering this is the only access point to DBO-Depsang-Karakoram Pass, cut-off the road, and the Depsang plains are cut-off. The advantage of that small little ravine is no longer tactical, but a strategic one.

Now, in terms of recapture, the Indian portion from the Shyok-Galwan confluence to PP14 is a steep climb (the terrain rises 100 m in just 2-3 km) with a narrow gorge on either side (a 40-45 deg slope). As Kargil showed, if we lose the high ground, recapture is extremely difficult, especially given the PLA has the advantage of flatter terrain on their end, along with wider roads, and easier resupply. We might have the same advantage on the west banks of the Shyok river thanks to the DBO road, but from there to PP14 is another matter altogether.

Thing is, as events showed, the easiest way for the chinese to capture the entire Galwan valley do that without actual contact action would've been to capture the area by surprise when we had no patrols, set up fixed encampments around the Galwan bend, which was probably the PLA strategy. The fact that we weren't caught by surprise (unlike at Pangong Tso), and didn't back down in trying to get the Chinese out suggests both active surveillance by IA as well as (possibly) intel effectiveness.

If they were planning to dominate dozens of kms of heights on the opposite (east) side of the Shyok to counter Indian positions, it means once again lugging men & materials from the bottom of Galwan Vally, near that famous bend, and climb up to the top of the ridges overlooking eastern side of the Shyok, which means trudging up the mountains through several kms of Indian area where we can easily put waiting men on the ridges to welcome climbing parties.

Again, as I said above, say you're the PLA... Once you capture the ravine, sure, you might be at greater risk of attack from the surrounding heights, but with constant resupply and support, it's possible to hold it, and wait out the attackers, who are cut off from their supply lines. 'Putting men on the ridges' is not an easy task, considering these are incredibly steep 20,000 ft high mountains. Think of how difficult it was to get our wounded off PP14 even with 4x4 access, a bridge across the Shyok, a not-so-steep slope along the PP14-to-Shyok path, a well-marked trail, and a short distance (4-5 km). Take those advantages away, and then imagine how difficult it'd be to actually support any significant force along the 'ridge lines' that might be able to take on a numerically superior, well-entrenched, and well-supported defending force along the bed of the Galwan river.

Just to give a sense of difficulty, the slopes on either side of the Galwan river are at a 45-50 deg angle. The average slope of K2 is 50-55 degrees, and people aren't carrying 35 kg loads and trying to fight with weapons up there.

If this is not a half assed plan I don't know what is.

Any which way you look at it, the southern pincer movement looks like Chinese mass suicide.

Not if they either (a) caught us by surprise and held on to it, and/or (b) were willing to use force to hold it. If either of those happened (b. can still happen btw), Galwan is lost to us, and we'd be calling it a crippling strategic loss.

[VikramS]

The fact that we weren't caught by surprise (unlike at Pangong Tso), and didn't back down in trying to get the Chinese out suggests both active surveillance by IA as well as (possibly) intel effectiveness.

Pangong Tso is the last place to be caught be surprise. You can easily see the fingers from the other shore or the lake.

Question is whether IA had the political clearance to stop the PLA from construction or whether it is an area they could hold given the resupply situation.

PLA constructed the road in 1999 and all IA has been doing is sending patrols occasionally.

[k prasad]

The fact that we weren't caught by surprise (unlike at Pangong Tso), and didn't back down in trying to get the Chinese out suggests both active surveillance by IA as well as (possibly) intel effectiveness.

Pangong Tso is the last place to be caught be surprise. You can easily see the fingers from the other shore or the lake.

Question is whether IA had the political clearance to stop the PLA from construction or whether it is an area they could hold given the resupply situation.

PLA constructed the road in 1999 and all IA has been doing is sending patrols occasionally.

Which makes the question of how the PLA could move from Finger 8 to Finger 4 without response all the more pertinent. If they did it even as we watched, thats an even bigger problem, right?

[Amoghvarsha]

Its on social media that China has placed bombers in tibet.

The only scenario where they can hit us in a sharp short war and we will take heavy damage is, if their bombers with ALCMs with fighter escorts target our position and at the same time PAF tries its hand on the other front. With our limited number of planes we will be stretched.

My only worry is air attack from both sides.

I have no doubt that IA will give the chinese a bloody nose while pakis will be running naked. No one is challenging the IN in our neighborhood.

Its the IAF with its limited numbers that worries me.

[VikramS]

Pangong Tso is the last place to be caught be surprise. You can easily see the fingers from the other shore or the lake.

Question is whether IA had the political clearance to stop the PLA from construction or whether it is an area they could hold given the resupply situation.

PLA constructed the road in 1999 and all IA has been doing is sending patrols occasionally.

Which makes the question of how the PLA could move from Finger 8 to Finger 4 without response all the more pertinent. If they did it even as we watched, thats an even bigger problem, right?

Geography matters.

They can drive to Finger 4-8.

India can walk or swim.

Earlier both sides were patrolling.

Now they have established permanent positions.

So while Indian perceptions of LAC went to Finger 8 there was no permanent presence. It’s probably Pt something India will have to live with unless it goes kinetic.

[debadutta]

3 gorges dam could potentially collapse : https://www.ntd.com/chinas-three-gorges ... 78009.html

[nachiket]

What is the location of the LAC (as per India) with respect to the Fingers 4-8 area? Google maps is deceptive here because it shows the LAC passing slightly to the west of finger 4. That is far too convenient for the Chinese and smells like Google mischief in showing Chinese claim line as the LAC.

[Larry Walker]

What pictures we see on our tabloid studio opinion channels are the ones that some western folks have purchased and analysed and then sold to these channels to earn big bucks - they are making hay. For example, if Chinese had so much equipment and material at PP14, we are all assuming here is that they don't have anything behind that ?! This is impossible. So why don't we see whats behind ? Because these semi- professional hobbyists don't know and do not bother to look beyond some very well known markers on the map, because it costs money for each photo and one needs to be trained in reading Satellite maps and at the same time well versed with the possible military locations around that sector to look for. So 24 hrs a day we will be shown the same images of PP14 and Finger-4 without any major breakthrough to understand the larger picture even at that sector level.

[Larry Walker]

There are so many naive assumptions - like Chinese will walk down the ravine and we will have turkey shoot and they will run away with their tails tucked. Chinese will line up in Depsang plain and we will blow them and they will loose face and go back home. But thankfully our Indian armed forces are professional and understand the threat. From our perspective - we should not make mockery of their effort of doing the biggest mobilisation to date (as per veterans who have seen good and bad times). If Chinese were turkey shoot, then why is there such a massive buildup required - if Chinese will fold away and run at the sound of 1st shot, then let's do some live fire demonstrations and scare them away. Jingoism is fine - but let's not go to level of Pakis who dream that Hindu baniya will just run away at then sight of a Paki punjabi soldier. We don't need to invite their fate of 65/71/99 upon us please.

[nachiket]

What is the location of the LAC (as per India) with respect to the Fingers 4-8 area? Google maps is deceptive here because it shows the LAC passing slightly to the west of finger 4. That is far too convenient for the Chinese and smells like Google mischief in showing Chinese claim line as the LAC.

Ok, I found this:


In Google maps (logging in from the US) the LAC position roughly coincides with the Chinese claim line. So it is definitely a case of Google chacha straight up accepting CCP diktat in this case.

What I would like to know is, if according to us, the LAC passes through Finger 8, not Finger 4, why in god's name is our base so far away, west of Finger 4? What did we assume would happen if we did not actually move to occupy the land especially since the Chinese base was already immediately adjoining Finger 8 even before this whole thing started?

[sudeepj]

If we need a thermonuclear weapon, at what point in time do we (re)test one? Do we wait till the Chinese have actually launched hostilities? What if in that scenario, the Chinese attack our sole test site at Pokhran?

The Chinese, an Asian continent superpower (they still cant go past the first island chain), have murdered tens of Indians. They have launched numerous incursions across the 3500km border. They have massed armies all along the border and also stationed H6 strategic bombers. The eastern most and the western most incursion is separated by 3000 kms! If this does not signal intent, what does? Delaying the next test may be perilous.
At least, we should be at a state of readiness when we are able to test at a 24 hour notice.

If the US administration changes and its looking more likely by the day, its possible a G2 type can come to power. Testing at that time will be next to impossible.

Yes, I believe our scientists when they say they have mastered the thermonuke. I believe its fairly simple technology as long as you dont want to miniaturize it beyond a certain point. But I dont think that eleven Jinping believes this. When he asks his commanders to 'do something' at the border, he needs to understand that the consequences may result in Beijing & Shanghai going up in a mushroom cloud. Right now, the pig does as he wants to!

[Philip]

I agree.Sadly some channels are trying to hyperventilate a la Yawnab, while getting guests from opposite sides to wage their political wars ,hurling verbal missiles at each other. The most sober channel attempting to analyse sat/ UAV pics,plus inviting former chiefs and sr. retd. staff officers,diplomats,intel offrs.,etc., is the IT channel. Attempts to lay blame for territorial loss at the feet of the dear departed Nehru,ABV, geriatric ex- PMs like Snake-Oil Singh,are ludicrous and only serve to entertain our enemy China.

It matters less whether the Chins are 1km inside the LAC or 1m inside, from China's perfidy today,the entire LAC between them and us is in reality fluid. They care a crap whether they agreed to a past map or not.Their principal goal in all this which is entirely lost to the channel anchors,analysts, experts, barring a microscopic few, who can't see the woods for the trees or Himalayas for the mountain peaks , is that the target is our globe-trotting PM Modi and his agenda of India as an alternative to China for investment and its demand for a seat at the global high table. Teaching him a signal lesson, having him bite Himalayan snow as Pandit Nehru did in' 62 is the objective,the goal of the fascist crypto- commie
would- be emperor of Chin XI Gin. There is no room for India at the high table of Asia and the globe for India. Why EVERY time our NSG status or UNSC seat comes up for discussion China uses its veto. Teaching India another '62 lesson,humiliating its leader is XI's gameplan.His apparent amiability after innumerable summits with Modi was to lure him into a sense of complacency,practising the Chin art of deception,backstabbing and surprise attack.
Unfortunately,our MEA mandarins never read the tea leaves right.

XI waited for the window of opportunity which came with the China Virus pandemic and let's call it by its true name,China Virus as was a century ago the Spanish Flu was thus called because of its country of origin.Here,even more diabolically is the fact ( US intel) that it originated in a Wuhan military lab! In deep waters due to the Chin Flu, eco crisis, migrant millions,political attack from the Opposition with Pak playing its supporting role beautifully ( Oscar nomination for Best Supporting role) with increased terror activity in the Valley and along the LOC ,fascist pig would- be emperor of Chin, XI GINs, masquerading as a latter-day Mao, quietly built up his military forces in Tibet using the cover of a mil. exercise to place them in position and sprung the trap. Doklam should've given us a clue as to his devious nature. After Doklam our roadmap should've been a rapid infra build-up all over thel border,plus a fast-tracked military build-up plugging the gaps ,expanding our all-round strike capability.Diplomatic and economic moves should've started implementation to reduce eco. dependency on it,which was destroying our MSMEs ,along with dpl. moves in the direction of Tibet and Taiwan.

There are only 2 nations in Asia that China fears,Japan and India. Japan occupied China in WW2. But today it is a non-nuclear power,sheltering under Uncle Sam's umbrella. There is also little evidence of a Japanese " bomb in the basement" Israeli style as the anti- nuke movement in Japan is extremely strong being the only nation to suffer the horrors of nuclear attack. It's also why closer relations with India stall because of our nuclear capability.Japan has a smaller population than China,less land mass raw materials too, and a smaller military too.
Thus India with its population heading to surpass that of China's this century, is the more dangerous enemy with a huge military force that under Modi has plans of expansion and modernisation that only money is holding up implementation. A robust democracy , the largest inthe world, India is therefore an attractive destination for international investment instead of a belligerent China, grabbing by force islands in the ICS and threatening littoral nations .Humiliating India militarily is therefore XI's masterplan to sabotage the inevitable. What's happening in the high Himalayas can now be better understood.

The hour is still not too late for simultaneous moves along with the military on the two "T" issues. Declaring Tibet as " Occupied " territory and recognition of Taiwan.In global and Asian interests India and Modi cannot lose face,China must.

[NRao]

Ok, I found this:


In Google maps (logging in from the US) the LAC position roughly coincides with the Chinese claim line. So it is definitely a case of Google chacha straight up accepting CCP diktat in this case.

What I would like to know is, if according to us, the LAC passes through Finger 8, not Finger 4, why in god's name is our base so far away, west of Finger 4? What did we assume would happen if we did not actually move to occupy the land especially since the Chinese base was already immediately adjoining Finger 8 even before this whole thing started?

The best I can tell:

1) Even in between the retired military folks there seem to be 2/3 maps of this region - they call them operational maps, I guess it means IA maps, which probably could change over time (meaning, the ground features remain the same, but the nomenclature changes over time)
2) What can be discerned, based on sat maps, is that the Chinese made kacha roads between F8 and F4 - in 1999, which in 2006 or so they converted to a blacktop. So, China patrolled that area on vehicles all these days
3) There is no motorable path around F4 from the Indian side - one has to walk from F3 onwards. And, depending on whom you listen to, you can find claims of Indian *patrols* all the way to F8 and in between. The pictures of each side displaying banners etc is from this area.
4) The "Base" in the Indian side was a couple of sheds until - I think - last year, when Modi had them build proper facilities and provided for a proper blacktop road to that base from the Indian side


5) So, the area between F4-F8 was considered disputed area - until the Chinese occupied it, all the way up the ridge (where they have a motorable road) too, just a few weeks back (May 2020?)


Hope that helps

[ks_sachin]

Mr NRao very succinctly put.

Regards

S

[Davidrock]

Pangong Tso: The area between F4 and F8 is difficult to patrol (grey zone), since we need to sqeeze through a narrow road in cliff at finger 4.

Galwan: About 100m area in PLA control (undisputed area). This is where their aggression has crossed red line, as they are well into our undisputed area. Again here it is difficult to construct in 100m area on the other side of the galwan river bank.

So in both cases, PLA has taken advantage of the terrain to hold territory. And more importantly built structures. There is no point if we are holding some area across their side of LAC, even if we do so somewhere, unless we build some permanent structure that can help us lay claim.

[sum]

There are so many naive assumptions - like Chinese will walk down the ravine and we will have turkey shoot and they will run away with their tails tucked. Chinese will line up in Depsang plain and we will blow them and they will loose face and go back home. But thankfully our Indian armed forces are professional and understand the threat. From our perspective - we should not make mockery of their effort of doing the biggest mobilisation to date (as per veterans who have seen good and bad times). If Chinese were turkey shoot, then why is there such a massive buildup required - if Chinese will fold away and run at the sound of 1st shot, then let's do some live fire demonstrations and scare them away. Jingoism is fine - but let's not go to level of Pakis who dream that Hindu baniya will just run away at then sight of a Paki punjabi soldier. We don't need to invite their fate of 65/71/99 upon us please.

100% agree on this.

No idea where this thought of Chinese just being weakling waiting to start shivering once brave Indian comes at them is coming from and they will be attacked at teir weak points without opening 100 other fronts coming from.
They are no 10 feet monsters who cant be challenged for sure but they are not some 2 foot walkover too ( esp with all the infra and MIC at hand, whatever be the quality)
No different than the Paki SDRE thought process in my opinion

Better to be realistic and plan and act accordingly which i believe the armed forces are doing now

[NRao]

June 21, 2020 :: Why this Japan-China island dispute could be Asia's next military flashpoint

While China is engaged in a tense border standoff with India high in the Himalayas, a small group of islands thousands of miles away could be another military tinderbox waiting to explode.

........................

The tiny islands that could explode the China-Vietnam relationship

"The Paracel Islands!" the teacher shouts.

"Belong to Vietnam!" call back about 30 schoolchildren, even louder. Their chant echoes through the three-story Paracel Islands Museum in Da Nang, which officials say cost the Vietnamese government $1.8 million to build.

Since opening in 2018, about half of its 40,000 visitors have been schoolchildren, who can explore exhibits, including documents, maps and photographs, all curated to hammer home one point.

The Paracel Islands belong to Vietnam. Not to China.

...........................................

[nachiket]

The best I can tell:

1) Even in between the retired military folks there seem to be 2/3 maps of this region - they call them operational maps, I guess it means IA maps, which probably could change over time (meaning, the ground features remain the same, but the nomenclature changes over time)
2) What can be discerned, based on sat maps, is that the Chinese made kacha roads between F8 and F4 - in 1999, which in 2006 or so they converted to a blacktop. So, China patrolled that area on vehicles all these days
3) There is no motorable path around F4 from the Indian side - one has to walk from F3 onwards. And, depending on whom you listen to, you can find claims of Indian *patrols* all the way to F8 and in between. The pictures of each side displaying banners etc is from this area.
4) The "Base" in the Indian side was a couple of sheds until - I think - last year, when Modi had them build proper facilities and provided for a proper blacktop road to that base from the Indian side


5) So, the area between F4-F8 was considered disputed area - until the Chinese occupied it, all the way up the ridge (where they have a motorable road) too, just a few weeks back (May 2020?)


Hope that helps

Thanks NRao. I think it is high time to assume that any area that is defensible on our side of the LAC needs to be defended with permanent posts/bases with motorable roads leading to them. At the same time, we need to identify areas on their side of the LAC which are not so defensible for them but easier for us and make plans to lay claim to them just as they are doing to us. But there needs to be orders from the very top for this to happen. This is the only way to stop the salami slicing that they are attempting at various points along the LAC. It is futile to keep playing this game by merely defending because at some points like the finger 4-8 area they are just going to present a fait accompli to us since the area is simply too easy to reach from their side and the opposite from ours. So we either give up our claim on it and be content with whatever we can defend or grab a piece of territory on their side somewhere else to use as a bargaining chip.