India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

[nishant.gupta]

If the Chinese were serious getting in a fight with us, then they would have done two things:

1. Prepare PLAAF airbase first. They were digging up Ngari in May, after they figured out, this could escalate.

2. Invaded proper across our permanent position. In all the areas, PLA is either on LAC or in grey area. It has NOT crossed in to areas, which it never patrolled.. They are just about dipping their toe..

They don't seem to want o escalate it, but, cause enough trouble to get some concession from us. But this drama led to a serious threat of Indian invasion. Not to mention the firestorm our media created with everyone in the world believing that it was China which started this.

I believe PLA wanted freeze on all our infra build in return for leaving. With the clash, now there is no hope. PLA must have occupied tile Finger 4, but it add NO VALUE to the real objective: Freeze of infra build. Not to mention the trade boycott..

If PLA has to stop us, it has to use force. They know there is no guarantee of success, otherwise they would have done it earlier..

If China was serious about war they would have done the following:
- Improve the G-219 highway, which may not currently be able to withstand landslides or the weight of thousands of heavy vehicles.
- Position many thousands of workmen required to construct supply depots, barracks, fuel dumps, repair workshops, fuel and watch pipelines etc.
(which it took us decades to do).
- Actually construct all of the above. It would mean stockpiling a million tonnes of supplies.
- Position the thousands of trucks (and the fuel for them) required to transport both material and men near the LAC.
- Additional fuel, spares, hardened shelters and SAM's at ALL airbases in Tibet (not some joker on twitter saying S-400 has moved).

In the absence of all this, they can do a deployment which, in my opinion, has to be limited in numbers and duration.

That is what I am saying Deans sir.... They have started improving infra now...pillboxes where they had a track earlier in finger 8 and who knows what else they may be upto. The Galwan road was built in 7 days flat on a fast flowing river and the road is good enough to even have a limousine service!!!

Why are we giving them time to do that???

I understand things before mid-June were possibly what Chinese expected. But post the Galwan massacre, plans changed for everyone. Now they have a bit of SM backlash in the country which they have to deal with. They have the world looking to check whats going on at the Indo-Tibet border. They cannot any more seem like doing simple salami slicing. The next best thing would be to keep the stupid Indians indulged in talks of de-escalation, make the BIF's start screaming about local issues (Mrs.Vadra is currently declaring to UP govt that she is the grand daughter of IG. INC twitter feed is full of shradhanjali and Mr.RaGa last posted anything worthwhile about the border 3 days ago).

All this while, PLA and PLAAF (no updates on PLAN though I have tried to check) have been boosting to previously unseen levels on the border.

[nishant.gupta]

Aksai Chin or Finger 4 to 8...?

Finger 4 to 8 which we seem to have lost in last couple of months and make Gosthana complete which our official maps, politicians and us jingos claim is rightfully ours.

[ks_sachin]

Our resources are also flowing into the area. One needs to understand the game very carefully ...

1. China wants to win without fighting else it could have attacked when it had an upper hand. IIRC, they did a large exercise around G219 with mechanized forces and Armour just facing DBO/Despang plain in Jan-Feb.

By April they had assembled and acclimatized and at that time could could have totally moved to DBO/Depsang plains thus creating a significant edge locally. India has not even suspected their motive at that time. Why did they not attack at that time?

2. Modi too had his moments when IA had the initiative locally in certain pockets. Why did Modi not follow up?

It makes sense when you understand that Chinese don't want to fight but to cow Indian down into submission by a show of force and extract some concession from Modi as a sign of his acceptance of defeat.

Modi, OTOH, does not want a fight because even if we win, it will come at a significant cost to India. His first focus is to get it worked out diplomatically and keep the kinetik option for the very last.

I had written before, I suspect IFFFFF Modi has been informed about the Chinese re-occupation of PP-14, he would have asked IA to pitch tent next to that point instead of asking for a forceful action.

It is to be seen if Modi's gambit will work out but this is the thought I have been able to discern from studying the actions of each party.

3. To put pressure of Modi to capitulate, the Chinese too are nibbling little by little every day instead of trying to make a dash for Leh as some of our board members fear.

Ultimately, if it comes to fight, the little nibbling/nabbling could be cleared with forceful action. It does not require IA to go deep into Chinese territory but will come with a cost.

China is increasing the cost of such action with every passing day but it too will pay a similar escalating cost if it comes to a battle. The situation is balanced in that sense till now.

I agree with what Modi would be thinking. I have been following his journey since his RSS days and I feel he is a guy not afraid to take action but also understands that all other methods are better than losing lives of soldiers or any Indians (possibly why he has been so dull during covid crisis).

I also understand the original intentions of Chinese would have been the "new and improved" salami slicing that no one before has heard of. They are obviously also worried about the Indian border infra which has been building up since Modi came to power.

But all these plans can be tossed into the bonfire as soon as 16 Bihar decided that enough is enough. What are the Chinese getting now by keeping the heat on and even increasing their forces in a way unheard of even during Doklam?

Obviously as I mentioned, they are even risking a lot on the Eastern border by these re-deployments even if we assume they have the money to blow while making all these units move from east to west.

Mate they have basically converted disputed territory to their territory in Pangong...and perhaps in Depsang..

What method will you use to dislodge the morning after tying their hands...And don’t say that the rules of engagement predated the BJP gov..

IF you don’t fight what other strategic or tactical leverage do you have up your arsenal to revert to the status quo?

The Chinese are fingering us and we continue to be reactive...

I like Modi too but don’t put anyone on a pedestal...

[ks_sachin]

Aksai Chin or Finger 4 to 8...?

Finger 4 to 8 which we seem to have lost in last couple of months and make Gosthana complete which our official maps, politicians and us jingos claim is rightfully ours.

Good luck!!

[syam]

It's clearly infra vs infra battle.

Modiji government focused only on DSDBO road so far. Time to up the ante. Upgrade DBO base. We need to build another base near to depsang la. Our army can use it for high altitude mil exercises during peacetime. Also it will be at opening/ending of Shyok river part of the road. 4 lane road where ever it is possible. DSDBO will serve as primary road. Every patrolling point can be connected to this road. Patrolling can become much easier job.

Permanent infra in south. Chushul to Demchok area can use good infra. A base near to Demchok. It should be similar to DBO one. Alter the terrain if all of the area is not available. If things heat up, we can stop chinis at Ngari itself.

This can solve the whole indo-china issue.

Main Base(Tier 1) at Leh

Tier 2 bases at DBO and Demchok.

Tier 3 bases at Depsang la, Durbuk, Lake Area, Chushul.

Two Main Roads - DSDBO road and Durbuk-Chushul-Demchok road.

[RaviB]

i think at the moment, the best case scenario for us would be a disengagement. Not because we can't fight now, but because we can fight better in 2 years. There are already significant outcomes, in terms of a clear policy change towards China, knowing who the enemy is and so on.

Time is what we can win, so long as we're serious about planning a war for 2022.

Even if this standoff ends, there will be another, and another and another. So at some point war is inevitable, but let's plan carefully for it.

I think the one country Chinis are seriously afraid of is the USA, and I can't help but think that they timed this entire thing to coincide with the US election fever. In two years, our urgent imports from Russia are here, we'll have time to organise local manufacturing, we'll have planned diplomatic moves carefully and it would be in good time for the 2023 elections.

Right now, we'll fight if we must but we cannot forget that the Chinese have chosen the time and place, we need to be the ones using the Chinese playbook. Prepare first, then provoke their patrols until something happens and eventually go in for a self-defense attack at a place of our choosing. In the meantime, we create a lot of diplomatic drama. Our economy would have disengaged by then too. Hopefully the initernational China-hate would only have gone up by then and they'll have domestic problems of their own. The US president will also be settled in and looking for a Nobel prize by then.

We need to have a carefully coordinated plan, instead of getting drawn into a war we haven't planned for.

[nishant.gupta]

Sir - this is where I believe over-emotional statement from Modi put us in a bind. Chinaman may not be 10 feet tall - but China is no Pakistan either. You will not be able to dominate entire LAC at the same time. So even if you take initiative and capture some land across LAC - but if Chinese are able to do it in some other sector - then it is still a political loss from India's perspective. And this is where I keep saying that what we capture may not be of that significance to Chinese compared to what they are able to capture in this giva-and-take war. Our only play right now is to fight Chinese in Ladakh sector and beat them back there while holding our lines across LAC.

Larry, I rarely comment here but want to make a comment now after seeing what's going on - you need to first understand that you dont have all the information to make the conclusion that you are making... you are doubting PM, Army and everyone involved.. prob you are thinking that it is some kind 5 man army where we can just walk in and set the place on fire... people with knowledge wont talk and people who talk dont have all the information. Now let's come to your worst fear - that China has taken over Indian territory - so be it. It's not like China has done this for the first time
They have been doing it for almost 70 years now. On the other hand, the current govt is the only one which has done something for the border and north east areas - in terms of infra and everything.. yes, they have made right noise about MIC but couldnt get this done. So prob this is the correct thing to happen to get a singular focus and get MIC done. If it is going to bring shame to India so be it.. Rome is not built in one day.. We will stand up - again.. again the above theory is for the dhoti shivering as you are so worried that PM, Army and everyone else have failed the country...

You belong to the Ghataks sir...

[darshan]

There's no shame for India in following it's own strategies and fixtures. The shame is in not fighting dharmic wars and Modi doesn't shy away from fighting these wars.

No shame in tactical losses and retreats. RaGaXi should have labeled Modi as Ranchhod/रणछोड़ instead of Surender.

Modi would not have been building infrastructure in borders areas without plans. He could have easily diverted that money towards many other need areas. It wasn't a luxury choice.

[nishant.gupta]

I agree with what Modi would be thinking. I have been following his journey since his RSS days and I feel he is a guy not afraid to take action but also understands that all other methods are better than losing lives of soldiers or any Indians (possibly why he has been so dull during covid crisis).

I also understand the original intentions of Chinese would have been the "new and improved" salami slicing that no one before has heard of. They are obviously also worried about the Indian border infra which has been building up since Modi came to power.

But all these plans can be tossed into the bonfire as soon as 16 Bihar decided that enough is enough. What are the Chinese getting now by keeping the heat on and even increasing their forces in a way unheard of even during Doklam?

Obviously as I mentioned, they are even risking a lot on the Eastern border by these re-deployments even if we assume they have the money to blow while making all these units move from east to west.

Mate they have basically converted disputed territory to their territory in Pangong...and perhaps in Depsang..

What method will you use to dislodge the morning after tying their hands...And don’t say that the rules of engagement predated the BJP gov..

IF you don’t fight what other strategic or tactical leverage do you have up your arsenal to revert to the status quo?

The Chinese are fingering us and we continue to be reactive...

I like Modi too but don’t put anyone on a pedestal...

Exactly my question. Why are we not fighting now when we hold the upper ground?

[ks_sachin]

Mate they have basically converted disputed territory to their territory in Pangong...and perhaps in Depsang..

What method will you use to dislodge the morning after tying their hands...And don’t say that the rules of engagement predated the BJP gov..

IF you don’t fight what other strategic or tactical leverage do you have up your arsenal to revert to the status quo?

The Chinese are fingering us and we continue to be reactive...

I like Modi too but don’t put anyone on a pedestal...

Exactly my question. Why are we not fighting now when we hold the upper ground?

This upper ground mantra is getting a bit tedious...

That is not the be all and end all of offensive ops!

And where all do we have the high ground that is also useful for offensive ops?

[Manish_Sharma]

It almost feels like USA is pushing China towards a fight - they are in this together...

Ha, how so? Where did the "feeling" start?

It's not a feeling, but cold calculation.

Read Larry Beinhart's AMERICAN HERO, Bush & James Baker made deal with Saddam Hussein that he attacks Kuwait, that pushed all scared arabs in arms of USA.

Now yesterday without anybody asking for help Pompeo announced pulling forces out of Germany and Europe to send them to Asia to protect Vietnam, Indonesia, India from Chinese aggression.

Xi and trump administration are waltzing in synchronicity, next Trump will say We should buy American weapons for Mutual cooperation during war. Sign more FOUR LETTER treatise making us their Vassals.

F21 soon will be pushed by USA administration soon.

[Manish_Sharma]

They want a base in the subcontinent + new leverage.
Right wing jingoes in India are the same. They are as destructive to India as the so called left wingers.

Stop peddling politics, and take your dhoti shiver elsewhere

Jeans shiverer are those that want Americans to protect India from China. Who are peddling India should buy F16 / F21 from USA.

[Jarita]

Ha, how so? Where did the "feeling" start?

It's not a feeling, but cold calculation.

Read Larry Beinhart's AMERICAN HERO, Bush & James Baker made deal with Saddam Hussein that he attacks Kuwait, that pushed all scared arabs in arms of USA.

Now yesterday without anybody asking for help Pompeo announced pulling forces out of Germany and Europe to send them to Asia to protect Vietnam, Indonesia, India from Chinese aggression.

Xi and trump administration are waltzing in synchronicity, next Trump will say We should buy American weapons for Mutual cooperation during war. Sign more FOUR LETTER treatise making us their Vassals.

F21 soon will be pushed by USA administration soon.

Correct
No one wants to hear this. The same pattern has been repeated earlier.

[Rs_singh]

F21 soon will be pushed by USA administration soon.

Correct
No one wants to hear this. The same pattern has been repeated earlier.

About America wanting a base in the subcontinent : there are plenty - Pakistan, Afghanistan and Diego Garcia. Not sure what one in bharat would provide besides it would be political suicide for any GOI to agree to this.

F16 peddling - all countries push their interests. At least on BRF I’ll be preaching to the choir if I said the LCA still is not signed for whatever reason.

@ks_sachin,

Complete agree with your point about holding higher ground becoming tedious, as you said. Besides, if holding higher ground was a silver bullet, Kargil would have had a different outcome. I personally don’t buy this business of playing chess/go or following sun tzu. I have never known any offr who has taken any of this as anything more than paper weight in their library collection. Drawing inspiration from all of this is another matter.

On another note, there are non kinetic means of evicting EN from f4-8. Would require us to operate in strength somewhere else. That being said, I also see a hesitation in going for a conflict and rightly so. We should use all means at our disposal to prevent a conflict and achieve our goals.

Finally, I apologize again for being a bit off topic but :
1. To those who keep saying this happened because of a370 or because we built infra, please stop. This would have happened even if we were standing on the border feeding EN candy!!! Anyone drawing these inferences is clearly towing a line, a certain agenda, please take a step back and see it for what it is.
2. If they take Leh, I would like to interest you in a certain green statue of a lady holding a torch in NY I am looking to sell.

[ks_sachin]

Correct
No one wants to hear this. The same pattern has been repeated earlier.

About America wanting a base in the subcontinent : there are plenty - Pakistan, Afghanistan and Diego Garcia. Not sure what one in bharat would provide besides it would be political suicide for any GOI to agree to this.

F16 peddling - all countries push their interests. At least on BRF I’ll be preaching to the choir if I said the LCA still is not signed for whatever reason.

@ks_sachin,

Complete agree with your point about holding higher ground becoming tedious, as you said. Besides, if holding higher ground was a silver bullet, Kargil would have had a different outcome. I personally don’t buy this business of playing chess/go or following sun tzu. I have never known any offr who has taken any of this as anything more than paper weight in their library collection. Drawing inspiration from all of this is another matter.

On another note, there are non kinetic means of evicting EN from f4-8. Would require us to operate in strength somewhere else. That being said, I also see a hesitation in going for a conflict and rightly so. We should use all means at our disposal to prevent a conflict and achieve our goals.

Finally, I apologize again for being a bit off topic but :
1. To those who keep saying this happened because of a370 or because we built infra, please stop. This would have happened even if we were standing on the border feeding EN candy!!! Anyone drawing these inferences is clearly towing a line, a certain agenda, please take a step back and see it for what it is.
2. If they take Leh, I would like to interest you in a certain green statue of a lady holding a torch in NY I am looking to sell.

You seem to have served.

[rkirankr]

People on the forum, say that stand off is advantage Chinese. However it could also be advantage India, if they go on say for couple of more months. We could fill in the gaps in the equipment (at least few of them), Defense has been given freedom to do emergency purchases. If this gets pushed till winter sets in, who has more experience of roughing out in winter at these places. In fact I feel, 15th June incident was planned by them, to just declare victory and go back. However IA gave them the shock of their lives. Now they need a face saver, without being seen as aggressor
Ofcourse they will prepare. We too should do that. Staring them down in itself is a victory for us. It will be 3- 1 India. 67, Dokhlam and 2020.

The battle of Maps which is going in SM, can be resolved by IA gets going. However we need to contain Pakistan. It could be an irritant and bleed us. It seems PAKis have asked POK admin to keep 50% beds in hospitals free for paki army. Before we start of with Chinese, we should ensure those beds are filled and their hospitals are overflowing.

[chola]

i think at the moment, the best case scenario for us would be a disengagement. Not because we can't fight now, but because we can fight better in 2 years. There are already significant outcomes, in terms of a clear policy change towards China, knowing who the enemy is and so on.

Time is what we can win, so long as we're serious about planning a war for 2022.

Even if this standoff ends, there will be another, and another and another. So at some point war is inevitable, but let's plan carefully for it.

I think the one country Chinis are seriously afraid of is the USA, and I can't help but think that they timed this entire thing to coincide with the US election fever. In two years, our urgent imports from Russia are here, we'll have time to organise local manufacturing, we'll have planned diplomatic moves carefully and it would be in good time for the 2023 elections.

Right now, we'll fight if we must but we cannot forget that the Chinese have chosen the time and place, we need to be the ones using the Chinese playbook. Prepare first, then provoke their patrols until something happens and eventually go in for a self-defense attack at a place of our choosing. In the meantime, we create a lot of diplomatic drama. Our economy would have disengaged by then too. Hopefully the initernational China-hate would only have gone up by then and they'll have domestic problems of their own. The US president will also be settled in and looking for a Nobel prize by then.

We need to have a carefully coordinated plan, instead of getting drawn into a war we haven't planned for.

I don't entirely disagree with the premise, Ravi ji.

But the numbers advantage are in our favor now. They were much greater during Doklam. They will be less tomorrow. Far less in the future.

The truth is it looks like the chinis are transitioning from a small numbers of troops in Tibet to a far larger one matching ours.

If we do not fight now then it will look more and more like the LOC where large forces are locked in place. Not that it is a bad thing. This would impose a high cost for the PLA to support 2 lakh men in the TAR when they had only to support 21k in three brigades before.

[RaviB]

...
I personally don’t buy this business of playing chess/go or following sun tzu. I have never known any offr who has taken any of this as anything more than paper weight in their library collection . Drawing inspiration from all of this is another matter.

On another note, there are non kinetic means of evicting EN from f4-8. Would require us to operate in strength somewhere else. That being said, I also see a hesitation in going for a conflict and rightly so. We should use all means at our disposal to prevent a conflict and achieve our goals.

Finally, I apologize again for being a bit off topic but :
1. To those who keep saying this happened because of a370 or because we built infra, please stop. This would have happened even if we were standing on the border feeding EN candy!!! Anyone drawing these inferences is clearly towing a line, a certain agenda, please take a step back and see it for what it is.
2. If they take Leh, I would like to interest you in a certain green statue of a lady holding a torch in NY I am looking to sell.

I completely agree with these points. The cultural revolution was a big break with Chinese tradition, the most important war lessons taught to the PLA are from the Long March and Yanan. The art of war is certainly quoted a lot more often outside China than within. As far as I can tell, Sun Zi is seen as a feudal warlord, and please don't forget the SHA is called the PLA because of its communist pretensions.

Exoticisizing the Chinese is fine for the West, but let's treat them as flesh and blood people not dragons and people with long mustaches and conical hats playing complex games while reading Sun Zi. They'll have guns in their hands and shoot back, that's where the analysis should start. I mean they are also famous for playing ping pong / table tennis. What can we learn about their strategy from that?

Regarding what we did to provoke the Chinese: From their perspective our biggest provocation is clear - insubordination.

From their perspective the solution is also clear: submit or else.

From our perspective the choices are: submit, fight or my preferred option, fight later.

[rpartha]

...
I personally don’t buy this business of playing chess/go or following sun tzu. I have never known any offr who has taken any of this as anything more than paper weight in their library collection . Drawing inspiration from all of this is another matter.

On another note, there are non kinetic means of evicting EN from f4-8. Would require us to operate in strength somewhere else. That being said, I also see a hesitation in going for a conflict and rightly so. We should use all means at our disposal to prevent a conflict and achieve our goals.

Finally, I apologize again for being a bit off topic but :
1. To those who keep saying this happened because of a370 or because we built infra, please stop. This would have happened even if we were standing on the border feeding EN candy!!! Anyone drawing these inferences is clearly towing a line, a certain agenda, please take a step back and see it for what it is.
2. If they take Leh, I would like to interest you in a certain green statue of a lady holding a torch in NY I am looking to sell.

I completely agree with these points. The cultural revolution was a big break with Chinese tradition, the most important war lessons taught to the PLA are from the Long March and Yanan. The art of war is certainly quoted a lot more often outside China than within. As far as I can tell, Sun Zi is seen as a feudal warlord, and please don't forget the SHA is called the PLA because of its communist pretensions.

Exoticisizing the Chinese is fine for the West, but let's treat them as flesh and blood people not dragons and people with long mustaches and conical hats playing complex games while reading Sun Zi. They'll have guns in their hands and shoot back, that's where the analysis should start. I mean they are also famous for playing ping pong / table tennis. What can we learn about their strategy from that?

Regarding what we did to provoke the Chinese: From their perspective our biggest provocation is clear - insubordination.

From their perspective the solution is also clear: submit or else.

From our perspective the choices are: submit, fight or my preferred option, fight later.

Right... we dont need to fight now... we dont necessarily need to retrieve the land immediately now - so long as the intention is there to retrieve it come what may... we need to play our game... just because white makes the first move, the black pieces doesnt lose the game.. need to game it properly...

[Vivasvat]

From our perspective the choices are: submit, fight or my preferred option, fight later.

Fighting in 2022 will be termed by the ach-thoo's as an election stunt.

[rajpa]

In chess it is said that the threat is stronger than the execution. Geisha Xi's Qunts are conjuring up a lot of threatening postures, but no real moves.

If they really thought that rods with nails could scare our army then there is no threat either because it is not a professional army that comes up with such stupid tactics.

By amassing a large army on our borders they may feel like they have made a threatening statement of force projection, but without any clear objectives it is strategically stupid.

Could it be that the the Qunts are really that stupid? Yes. They have done it before.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/ho ... -iii-15152

[rkirankr]

Can S-400 be jammed?

[sudeepj]

It's not a feeling, but cold calculation.

Read Larry Beinhart's AMERICAN HERO, Bush & James Baker made deal with Saddam Hussein that he attacks Kuwait, that pushed all scared arabs in arms of USA.

Now yesterday without anybody asking for help Pompeo announced pulling forces out of Germany and Europe to send them to Asia to protect Vietnam, Indonesia, India from Chinese aggression.

Xi and trump administration are waltzing in synchronicity, next Trump will say We should buy American weapons for Mutual cooperation during war. Sign more FOUR LETTER treatise making us their Vassals.

F21 soon will be pushed by USA administration soon.

Correct
No one wants to hear this. The same pattern has been repeated earlier.

The US has made a deal with China, that China should fight a border war with India, so India and rest of Asia would run into American arms, so US can set up a base in India and across Asian island countries, so they can better bottle up PLAN behind the first island chain.

What are you smoking? and where can I get some?

[Deans]

Aksai Chin or Finger 4 to 8...?

Finger 4 to 8 which we seem to have lost in last couple of months and make Gosthana complete which our official maps, politicians and us jingos claim is rightfully ours.

We lost finger 4-8 back in 2000, when the Chinese first constructed a road there, then built a jetty for boats, then a small structure etc.
For all we know they could have been patrolling upto finger 2, because we had no presence or roads on the fingers, so our (foot) patrols were
infrequent. It was only in 2014 that our road was built and then (2017) the ITBP camp at finger 3 (where our road ends). The new development since May, is that the Chinese patrols did not leave, but have squatted.

[pankajs]

This map has more details on Bottleneck and beyond...

https://twitter.com/praveenswami/status ... 5573623808

Praveen Swami @praveenswami

This map helps understand the very large swathe of Indian-claimed territory on the LAC that China is seeking to deny Indian troops access to

Swami seems to be suggesting that the LAC passed at the back of the Chinese post 5390 that is situated on a rise in the middle of the Depsang plains and just behind the Chinese loop track on the plains.

[SriKumar]

Finally, I apologize again for being a bit off topic but :
1. To those who keep saying this happened because of a370 or because we built infra, please stop. This would have happened even if we were standing on the border feeding EN candy!!! Anyone drawing these inferences is clearly towing a line, a certain agenda, please take a step back and see it for what it is.
2. If they take Leh, I would like to interest you in a certain green statue of a lady holding a torch in NY I am looking to sell.

Agree with the above.
General comment:
1. This business of China upped the temperature at the LAC because India did Article 370 or something else is tiresome. THey have been continuously pushing the LAC line and making new claims every decade (Arunachal, Dokalam, other areas), sometimes, every year. In the last few years of expansionism, it has been now extended to maritime boundaries with Philippines, and Indonesia (google North Natuna sea). I dont pay any attention to their claims any more. They are not rooted in any principle other than grab land and sea resources. People forget that Tibet was also a land grab through force. The CPC government has no scruples, and this is a literal statement, not an emotional or rhetorical statement. I base this on their communication on the Covid situation to the rest of the world, especially India. Their position on the LAC follows the same pattern.

2. About Chinese 'happily rolling in Leh etc.', this is a load of hyperventilation betraying un-spoken fears. Part of the blame for this goes to the separation of army and civilian cultures and many civilians are not really in tune with. The other part of the story is that logistical details cannot be revealed in public domain during a war-time situation (this is a war-time situation). (i) Public domain information does say that India has greater than even parity with Chinese troops, (ii) we know that to attack, the attacker needs 3X to 10X the forces (depending on terrain), (iii) we know one Indian killed 12 Chinese soldiers and (iv) and for 20 dead, there were about twice the casualities on the Chinese side in what was an ambush of the Indian unit during de-escalation with a dis-proportionate number of Chinese special forces brought for this purpose.

All of these should be sufficient to conclude, on a commonsensical basis that Indian army will be ready to provide adequate hospitality to any Chinese kinetic activity towards DBO or Leh.

[Deans]

If China was serious about war they would have done the following:
- Improve the G-219 highway, which may not currently be able to withstand landslides or the weight of thousands of heavy vehicles.
- Position many thousands of workmen required to construct supply depots, barracks, fuel dumps, repair workshops, fuel and watch pipelines etc.
(which it took us decades to do).
- Actually construct all of the above. It would mean stockpiling a million tonnes of supplies.
- Position the thousands of trucks (and the fuel for them) required to transport both material and men near the LAC.
- Additional fuel, spares, hardened shelters and SAM's at ALL airbases in Tibet (not some joker on twitter saying S-400 has moved).

In the absence of all this, they can do a deployment which, in my opinion, has to be limited in numbers and duration.

That is what I am saying Deans sir.... They have started improving infra now...pillboxes where they had a track earlier in finger 8 and who knows what else they may be upto. The Galwan road was built in 7 days flat on a fast flowing river and the road is good enough to even have a limousine service!!!

Why are we giving them time to do that???

All this while, PLA and PLAAF (no updates on PLAN though I have tried to check) have been boosting to previously unseen levels on the border.

There's a difference between building infra like roads (which Chinese are free to do on their side of the LAC) and preparing for war. If we consider Pangong Tso for e.g. if there's an actual war, it will be a death trap for the Chinese who (to quote the media) have massed in a relatively small strip of the fingers. if they have to be supported in a shooting war, there would need to be a massive build up of artillery, engineering support, vehicles, ammunition dumps, field hospitals, repair workshops etc. (Its there on our side, because 3rd Infantry division has been there for years). I'm sure the army knows if that build up has happened or not. If it has, they would take counter measures and can do so faster, because our forces are closer to the LAC.

[Deans]

This map has more details on Bottleneck and beyond...

https://twitter.com/praveenswami/status ... 5573623808

Praveen Swami @praveenswami

This map helps understand the very large swathe of Indian-claimed territory on the LAC that China is seeking to deny Indian troops access to

Praveen Swami (like Ajay Shukla) makes Global times look like Swarajya.

[suryag]

I dont understand what the eff does LINE OF ACTUAL CONTROL mean ? Basically, we have an understanding of where we were last and where they were last and this is not demarcated on maps. So they could very well accuse us that we were drunk or were lying and we could accuse them of the same. The real LAC is Aksai Hind/Gosthana border, our territory has been grabbed illegally and thats the reality notwithstanding all this LAC BS. The only intention of the Govt should be to get it back, now or later. IMHO now is a good time because for one we will never be ready and the second reason is Covid has slowed down the world economy and you are not in this high growth phase where you are scared of frittering away your wealth. Lets see am keeping my fingers crossed anger inside and relying on Lord Shiva to show the right path to Modi.

Meanwhile, The entire Congi ecosystem seems to have smelt blood and are pushing Modi to react. They know if he doesnt react they finally have one stick to beat him multiple times.

[SriKumar]

^^^
1. Aksai Hind/Gosthana borderline is the official international border per GOI, it is not LAC.
2. LAC is the line where Indian soldiers held at the end of the '62 war. After '62, local conflicts and land-grabs have occurred. I dont know for sure, but I dont believe that this has resulted in changes to the LAC line as published by the various governments since 1962. (If they did, it could become an election issue).

[Jarita]

Correct
No one wants to hear this. The same pattern has been repeated earlier.

The US has made a deal with China, that China should fight a border war with India, so India and rest of Asia would run into American arms, so US can set up a base in India and across Asian island countries, so they can better bottle up PLAN behind the first island chain.

What are you smoking? and where can I get some?

No deals. Just opportunism. Its never so binary or linear.

[Larry Walker]

https://twitter.com/GeneralBakshi/statu ... 33280?s=19
All is not Quiet on the Western front . The Chinese had initially brought down the 6 Mech div for creating trouble in Ladakh. now they have also brought down their 4 mech div opposite DBO and Depsang. Unconfirmed media Reports state even an S- 400 battery Deployed. Be ALERT

[Ashokk]

Russia to Speed Up S-400 Delivery to India Amid China Standoff

India now expects Russia to send the first of five S-400 batteries in 2020 following the Indian defense chief’s visit to Moscow for Russia’s landmark Victory Day parade this week, according to Kommersant. The first delivery was originally scheduled for late 2021.

“If this scenario is realized, then we’ll see the first S-400 at Republic Day in the Indian capital next Jan. 26,” an unnamed Indian military source told Kommersant.

“This system will be our silver bullet against our enemies,” they added.

India plans to deploy three S-400 batteries on the border with Pakistan and two with China, Kommersant cited its Indian sources as saying. Russia will reportedly send one S-400 battery per year, with all five expected to reach India by 2024.

[pankajs]

https://twitter.com/MohalJoshi/status/1 ... 4661005312

Based on the article below (by @praveenswami) on Indian patrol routes along the LAC in Depsang I created some maps for the same.
Thread.

About what I had in mind except I thought the most significant nala was East/West and should be Raki Nala rather than NNE turn to the PP-10

[pankajs]

A 3D view of the same ... again for the same person


https://twitter.com/MohalJoshi/status/1 ... 1298567168

Mohal Joshi @MohalJoshi

As per reports PLA has blocked IA from going any further from this point & has built up its presence above Bottleneck

Indian soldiers complete a 48 hour patrol from Bottleneck to Point 10, 11, 11A, 12, 13 & back to Bottleneck over brutal terrain as per the article.

[Raveen]

Ha, how so? Where did the "feeling" start?

It's not a feeling, but cold calculation.

Read Larry Beinhart's AMERICAN HERO, Bush & James Baker made deal with Saddam Hussein that he attacks Kuwait, that pushed all scared arabs in arms of USA.

Now yesterday without anybody asking for help Pompeo announced pulling forces out of Germany and Europe to send them to Asia to protect Vietnam, Indonesia, India from Chinese aggression.

Xi and trump administration are waltzing in synchronicity, next Trump will say We should buy American weapons for Mutual cooperation during war. Sign more FOUR LETTER treatise making us their Vassals.

F21 soon will be pushed by USA administration soon.

Sorry I forgot my tinfoil hat

[NRao]

The real LAC is where each side last physically maintained control (Not patrolled or claimed it on a map). It is a line in the sand. Which can be shifted as either side deems fit. Maps mean nothing unless one side has the power to enforce it on the ground. So, the Pangong Tso bout goes to China. Only until India finds a response - if India wants to (absence of a response means nothing).



On infrastructure: India, in the past year or two, has brought most infrastructure either on par or exceeded that of China's - granted Chinese infrastructure is dated. Exception, where it is catching up, is Arunachal Pradesh. Give that area a year or two.

On S-400: great for building a threat library. Provided Chinese turn it on. I bet they will not.

On Chinese Mech Div: Some reports say China has moved one Mech Din into GB and another around Depsang Plains. Nice. The only thing I can think of is that China wants to occupy GB before India does.

Joe Biden: I would pay close attention to USPACOM and not Biden or any of his Secretaries. When it comes to China politics will matter, but, threats on the ground matter more - at some point in time politicians follow.



Considering that India was taken by surprise, both politically and militarily, India - IMHO - is done extremely well. Not out of the woods - yet, but China is deeper in the woods than she had planned for I bet. And, when you prevent an opponent from achieving their goals, that is a win. Until some other factor changes the ground realities.

My feeling is that China has bumped into a stubborn opponent and that LAC is going to shift. Not always in China's favor.

It is in India's favor to drag this out as long as possible. Patience. No need for press conferences. Sat maps jocks - especially from NZ, are welcome.

[rkirankr]

The is what I felt, but could never express it so well. Thanks NRao.

[ldev]

Xi and Modi have met a total of 18 times since Modi came to power. Modi has visited China 5 times. Xi has visited India twice. This stand-off which clearly has Xi's approval is based on his assessment after 18 meetings that Modi is no different from previous Indian PMs and will fold when the pressure is on. Let us see whether his assessment is correct or he has made a huge blunder.

The Indian armed forces as of now have no trust in China to honor any agreements signed by them including the de-escalation agreement of June 6. This is a direct consequence of the Chinese incursions. The Indian political establishment has probably arrived at the same conclusion by now. Modi would have realized by now that the normal discourse between political leaders to build a relationship between countries cannot be applied to China i.e. Xi will sit with Modi on a swing one day and the next day is perfectly capable of ordering the PLA to salami slice Indian territory.

The Indian armed forces by doctrine and equipment are geared as a defensive force, it is not an expeditionary force. As such it cannot hold ground much beyond a few kilometers from India's borders, honorable exception being the Maldives. But then Maldives is not deep into Tibet.

China is aware both of the Indian political consensus to only defend India's frontiers and as well as the Indian armed forces equipment and defensive doctrine and hence realizes that encroachment into Indian territory is a win-win situation. There is no potential loss associated with that move i.e. It is not as if in response to a Chinese incursion that India's political leadership will authorize an offensive move into Tibet, to move to permanently capture Ngari, free up Aksai Chin, neutralize all PLAAF airfields in Tibet via precision strike weapons and have a fleet of 50 C-17s to airlift an airborne brigade or two to Lhasa with the objective of holding it. All that India can and will do is to defend it's frontiers, a km at a time, a nullah at a time and a valley and a mountain ridge at a time. This combination of political and military factors ensure that China is proactive and India is defensive on the border.

China is also aware of India's antipathy towards entering into any kind of formal military alliance. In contrast, a dirt poor China allied with the US against the USSR after Nixon's 1972 visit. China allied with Pakistan at a time when from a technology standpoint the Pakistan armed forces were superior to China's armed forces. It thus got clandestine access to Western equipment, to study and eventually to copy. China will do what is necessary to advance it's national objectives. As such China knows that India is a single country that can be picked on and picked off without the benefit of a formal alliance.

While there is no doubt that as of today on a man to man basis and from the viewpoint of a professional and proficient pilot or sailor or solider the Indian armed forces are superior to the Chinese armed forces, beyond a certain point, numbers of equipment whether fighters, ships or missiles do matter. And as has been pointed out earlier the Chinese armed forces allocate about 40% of their budget for new equipment purchases. In contrast India allocates about 20% for the same from a much smaller defence budget. At some point even the best trained and most professional and proficient of pilots, sailors, soldiers will be overwhelmed by sheer numbers and equipment.

Even if this confrontation ends up with China de-mobilizing but retaining control of F4-8 and retaining it's position at the Y junction of the Galwan river, there will be future confrontations and there can be absolutely no doubt about that.

[Roop]

This would have happened even if we were standing on the border feeding EN candy!!!

Who / what is "EN"? I presume it's some kind of reference to Chinese troops, but I thought I should check.

IAC, I agree with your thoughts -- this whole question of what India's response will be or should be should be discussed without useless criticisms of A370 cancellation etc.

There are those who feel (and I am one of them) that Indian kinetic action should have started already. OTOH there are those who say we should wait, bide our time and fight them in a couple of years when our strength is built up. I am not attacking/criticizing the latter group, but I would just point out that there will always be some "good reason" to hold off action, to "wait for a better time" etc. Who knows what political crisis will exist in 2022/2023 that makes it difficult / impossible to take action then.