India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

[Rs_singh]

Thank you, sanju. That’s exactly what I was referring to.

[Sidhant]

Don't underestimate their intelligence, or overestimate ours post Gujral

Raveen ji, whose intelligence I seem to be underestimating? My post was in response to the original poster's comment that apart from arms supply we should not expect any other help from other countries. Please tell me, if the rest of the world does not helps us in any other way but provides us a stable supply of arms/ammunition, what other help do we really need? Unless we want others to fight our battles, supply of arms and may be some intelligence sharing is more than enough. Expecting anything more means we better fold right now and sue for peace.

Edited grammatical errors.

[pankajs]

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/1279709196179476480

Saurav Jha @SJha1618

While the Xingjiang Military Division's Keshi-based 4th & 6th Motorized Infantry Divisions have already been deployed by the PLAGF to the faceoff arenas, the 8th division has been in readiness exercises across the Kunlun Shan. I would think the 11th at Wulumqi is also active.

I have discussed this with quite a few people in the past few years, and nobody has ever agreed that a 'siachenization' or 'LOCisation' of the LAC in Eastern Ladakh is really possible given the terrain and conditions. In any case, it would be the wrong strategy even if attempted.

It would be wrong for us to think that the PLAGF is simply going to be content with whatever it has grabbed till now and the standoff will just continue till Winter sets in. As I have said, they have moved to block riposte funnels & a move by them on Depsang cannot be ruled out.

Jha thinks ...

1. China is preparing to bring in more forces into the area.
2. Chinese have moved to block all the "obvious" riposte axis e.g Gogra, Hot springs, Demchok, etc.
3. He suggests they might be interested in pushing further in Depsang.

I would think Gorga too could be a target for such an adventurous play. The Chinese have deployed forces such that they can create pressure at this point from 3 separate axis i.e. Galwan from North, Kongka La from East and Pangang Tso from the South. Check this map posted before ..

Here's a good ready reckoner for PLA deployments along the "middle" sector of Ladakh (Dhemchok to south and DBO/Depsang to the north not shown) from open source data.

[Sanju]

One of the books that was in my late Father's collection was about the 1962 war. It was written by a IA Officer who took part in the operations and in that the author writes that China wasn't as large in numbers as was made out to be. How these numbers came out to be was through propoganda and that there was a lot of disinformation going around at that time and this created a "mahaul", an envronment of fear and dread about these "mythical Chinese forces".

This seems to tie in with the USI book about the view from the Chinese side.

I rue the day that I didn't pick that book up and since then we moved home.

Edit: The disinformation camapign that we hear from Congis, Commies & assorted other anti-nationals is eerily similar to what was written in that book.

[AshishA]

Okay a question has been bugging me. Let's assume that a limited conflict takes place between India and China. And we manage to either annihilate or stalemate the Chinese forces. Something that leads to loss of face for the Chinese.

What would happen next? If we let them go too easily without defanging them, won't they rebuild quickly and attack us with more force with the intension of seeking revenge a few years down the line? Just like Pakis did every 10-20 years? But what level of destruction will really mean that Chinese have been defanged? PLA and PLAAF getting annihilated? Or just the soldiers who are in Ladakh? Or does PLAN also needs to be sunk?

In my opinion, their military defeat must be followed by a regime change and internal uprisings for a decade or so. So that we can stabilise our economy from the effects of China Virus and strengthen our positions. And during this time we must make sure their attention is focused in dealing with internal problems.

[Ardeshir]

-- Self-Deleted --

[vimal]

This thread seems too incoherent to follow. One post is about the current situation at the border and evolving situation and then next one goes back to Chacha Who and psychology of Hans and acquisitions and everything wrong with our MIC.

[Manish_Sharma]

Fast forward to 58 years later- their generation of soldiers and generals that fought so many battles are gone. Today the shoe is definitely on the other foot. And our present day Bat Eaters with their shiny pieces of kit may chose to lay claim to their legacy, but are they worthy of it?

Hari Sir here is 2018 book by Ravi Rikhye, here he says due to small budget spent on Defense we don't have ability to fight 2 front war, so what if Porkis open 2nd front on the 3rd week of War?

https://www.amazon.in/Analysis-Indias-A ... oks&sr=1-2

Analysis of India's Ability to Fight a 2-Front War 2018 Paperback – 1 January 2018
by Ravi Rikhye (Author)

The analysis asks one question and has one answer: can India fight a two-front war against China and Pakistan? The answer is it cannot. Because of the China-Pakistan alliance, we cannot fight even a one-front war: engaging in a war with either adversary runs the risk of weakening the other front, leaving it open to exploitation. The solution, fortunately, is straightforward: build a 2-front war capability. The next problem is equally straightforward: the government of India is determined not to spend money on defense. Today spending is down to 1.56% of GDP, lower even than in 1962. And we know how that ended. It takes little imagination to foresee what would have happened if 1962 had become 2-front: Pakistan would have walked over Punjab, perhaps all the way to Delhi, and we would have lost Kashmir too. If we chose to defend Punjab, we would have lost the North East frontier agency, now called Arunachal. If we tried to defend both fronts, we would have lost both. For a strong defensive posture, we need to spend the 3.

[Cain Marko]

" Dorkie is full of hot air and his debates are unwatchable,"

Respectfully disagree sir. AG is a passionate, relentless, uncompromising patriot, who exposes and attacks all the individuals, groups and ideologies we at BR despise.

Varun, no doubt that he is useful. But if he shouts less, gives others a chance to talk, moderates his debates better, invites sober guests instead of traitors and Pakis and then yells at them; he will be more effective on movers and shakers. Right now, I am sure he has a loyal fan base, but even RW intellectuals don't take him seriously. So its a wasted effort IMO. Likewise, Rahul Shivshankar on TimesNow who shouts a tad less but again has all kinds of rif raff on his show like Pappu's perverts that dilutes the content of shows.

During this crisis at least, Rahul Kanwal is my go to man to get a sober reasonable analysis.

On the print side, I read both sides, and from the first para one can tell whether its an agenda piece or scholarly analysis. For e.g., there were some good tit bits in the analysis by Vipin Narang and Christopher Clary, but its clear they were peddling an anti-ModiJi agenda whom they loathe. This Clary chutiya has the gall to compare Maun Mohan Singh and his Sonia Madam's abject surrender to TSP post 26/11 with ModiJi's alleged inability to evict Chincoms from their ingresses across the LAC.

On the other side, I read Abhijit Iyer Mitra's analysis, but he still claims no Chincom ingress into Indian territory which is clearly a massive spin. I also take Nitin Gokhale seriously although he does have a pro-ModiJi slant, nothing wrong with that, but one needs to keep that in mind in the search for facts.

Agree with this CRSji. Sometimes one gets newj from loathsome sources too. But then there is little in the media today that doesn't fit that description.

[Raveen]

Don't underestimate their intelligence, or overestimate ours post Gujral

Raveen ji, whose intelligence I seem to be underestimating? My post was in response to the original poster's comment that apart from arms supply we should not expect any other help from other countries. Please tell me, if the rest of the world does not helps us in any other way but provides us a stable supply of arms/ammunition, what other help do we really need? Unless we want others to fight our battles, supply of arms and may be some intelligence sharing is more than enough. Expecting anything more means we better fold right now and sue for peace.

Edited grammatical errors.

Sidhant ji, I am referring to their intelligence capabilities

[Cain Marko]

Cainji, please correct me if I am wrong, but the only places currently "occupied" is between fingers 4-8(or 6) right?

1] Galwan Nallah: About 100 mts. near the bend.
2] Pangong Tso: Between Fingers 4 to 8 (or 6). But I guess it was technically already half occupied given that they had metaled road till that point. But yep, in India's perception this has been occupied.
3] Depsag Plains: Massive buildup on their side but no occupation land on Indian perception of LAC i guess.
4] Hotsprings: Same as above.
5] Spaggnur Tso: Same as above.
6] Gogra: Some rumours that they have been evicted, now only buildup on their sides.

But yep agree, if you are implying in the sense that the whole of Ladakh, Aksai Chin and Shaksgam valley as occupied.

Edit: Edited to add that this info is only as per "OSINT" and other ''journalist' sources only.

Frankly, I'm not entirely sure. There have been lots of people saying a variety of things. Last I checked, the Chinese were driven out of areas they had ingressed into. Nevertheless the idea that they need to go back to positions pre May suggest that there is more to be done.

[RaviB]

Okay a question has been bugging me. Let's assume that a limited conflict takes place between India and China. And we manage to either annihilate or stalemate the Chinese forces. Something that leads to loss of face for the Chinese.

What would happen next? If we let them go too easily without defanging them, won't they rebuild quickly and attack us with more force with the intension of seeking revenge a few years down the line? Just like Pakis did every 10-20 years? But what level of destruction will really mean that Chinese have been defanged? PLA and PLAAF getting annihilated? Or just the soldiers who are in Ladakh? Or does PLAN also needs to be sunk?

If you notice, the one thing that hasn't happened is any senior figure in Han Heaven uttering a single word about Ladakh. Their Foreign Ministry spokesperson is the only one talking. Early on, there were rumours that the Western theater Commander had given a statement. I didn't see it anywhere, so it's possible it was quickly purged. This is GEISHA firewalling himself from any defeat. Compare that to PM visiting Ladakh.

If SHA fails then it will be discovered that Gen. Xu was corrupt (like everyone else) and he'll get his head chopped off. Since Xi came in, there have been around 2.3 million people found to be corrupt. Some of them are in jail, others left their families poorer by 50 RMB. If SHA has a resounding victory, GEISHSA and wife will show up to wave at the troops who protected the motherland.

If it's a stalemate or defeat, they will pretend none of this ever happened. All details will be scrubbed from public record. The idea of lost honour is not really a very Chinese thing. Losing face is about embarrassment in the moment. Meaning if somebody gets punished for the embarrassment, things are back to normal. So in this case General Xu losing his head means embarrassment has been addressed. The Chinese logic would be that we got a bloody nose, no point getting another one until we can be sure we'll crush our target. Think about Vietnam, China hasn't ever tried out revenge. All Chinese know China taught Vietnam a lesson and Vietnam has since then never raised its voice. Problem addressed, no honour lost, nothing to be embarrassed about.

China's defeat would give us 15 years of deterrence, a stalemate would probably buy us 10 years.

In my opinion, their military defeat must be followed by a regime change and internal uprisings for a decade or so. So that we can stabilise our economy from the effects of China Virus and strengthen our positions. And during this time we must make sure their attention is focused in dealing with internal problems.

All the ideas about Chinese rising up, demanding democracy are American propaganda. So long as they can hold on to wat they have, they won't raise their head.
What is actually likely in the case of Hanland is a palace coup. Eleven is GEISHA for life, which if you're an ambitious CCP guy means his neck is all that lies between you and the throne. The upper echelon of CCP got there by being extremely ambitious, cuthroats. Would the next generation just give away their rights? Remember their game has so far relied on a decadal transfer of power. These guys have spent 40 years fighting their way up the ladder, kicking people, backstabbing, changing loyalties and what not. And now the top is locked, the first whiff of a chance and there will be a move to get rid of Xi. Think of it like a queue of people outside a toilet waiting and waiting and waiting. How long before somebody gets annoyed enough to break the door and throw out the person sitting on the porcelain throne?

[vijayk]

Cainji, please correct me if I am wrong, but the only places currently "occupied" is between fingers 4-8(or 6) right?

1] Galwan Nallah: About 100 mts. near the bend.
2] Pangong Tso: Between Fingers 4 to 8 (or 6). But I guess it was technically already half occupied given that they had metaled road till that point. But yep, in India's perception this has been occupied.
3] Depsag Plains: Massive buildup on their side but no occupation land on Indian perception of LAC i guess.
4] Hotsprings: Same as above.
5] Spaggnur Tso: Same as above.
6] Gogra: Some rumours that they have been evicted, now only buildup on their sides.

But yep agree, if you are implying in the sense that the whole of Ladakh, Aksai Chin and Shaksgam valley as occupied.

Edit: Edited to add that this info is only as per "OSINT" and other ''journalist' sources only.

Frankly, I'm not entirely sure. There have been lots of people saying a variety of things. Last I checked, the Chinese were driven out of areas they had ingressed into. Nevertheless the idea that they need to go back to positions pre May suggest that there is more to be done.

Can any one define what is victory for us without war?

If Chinese quietly move back to old positions: 1, 2 and 6. can we consider that as a victory to us and defeat for CORONA PING?

Would we be satisfied with it? Will that scare that madar***d not to try anything for next 10 years?

If they don't move back, is there any thing which we can occupy that will give us a leverage?

[abhik]

Frankly, I'm not entirely sure. There have been lots of people saying a variety of things. Last I checked, the Chinese were driven out of areas they had ingressed into. Nevertheless the idea that they need to go back to positions pre May suggest that there is more to be done.

Can any one define what is victory for us without war?

If Chinese quietly move back to old positions: 1, 2 and 6. can we consider that as a victory to us and defeat for CORONA PING?

Would we be satisfied with it? Will that scare that madar***d not to try anything for next 10 years?

If they don't move back, is there any thing which we can occupy that will give us a leverage?

Real question is why will they move back? They are pretty well entrenched and I'm not sure what leverage we have over them.

Re. occupying something on their side, it is not an option any more as per S Jha as they have covered their bases (I can believe that, they have definitely come prepared).

[RKumar]

There are only a few user cases (UC) here, I will keep it as brief as possible

UC 1 - India stand-down: (Chance: Unlikely)
India accepts the claim line of Sino either partially or all. No lasting peace, after this Sino will keep claiming new areas and will get a free hand and occupy any place as and when it wishes.

UC 2 - Sino stand-down: (Chance: Unlikely)
Sino accepts the claim line of India either partially or all. We will have a sense of peace for the next 10-15 years. Most probably there will be no serious conflict during this time.

UC 3 - Indo-Sino compromise: (Chance: Medium)
Sino moves its forces back to April 2020 LAC and pays compensation for the trouble caused - pre-planned ambush causing loss of 20 soldiers and big cost due to build up. We will have a sense of peace for the next 5-10 years.

UC 4 - Indo-Sino local skirmishes: (Chance: Likely)
Both parties try to get hold of their respective claim lines but limited to current areas in Ladakh respecting current LAC. It leads to a short border war lasting a week or so with low casualties on both sides. Sooner or later, will lead to UC 5.

UC 5 - Indo-Sino war: (Chance: Medium)
Both parties try to get hold of their respective claim lines, ignoring the current LAC. It leads to war - causing a medium or huge number of casualties on both sides.

[Anoop]

So if we want to attack G219 or threaten Ngari, we can't attack southwards from Demchok because we will not be able to concentrate units without being observed and interdicted. We have to attack west to east, through passes like Dumchele La. East of that ridge, there is an armour friendly plain where we would turn southwards, towards Jara La. Jara La is the gateway to Ngari and G219

Thank you, YIP. I looked at these two passes more closely on Google Earth and I can now understand what you are getting at.

Even if we don't go further N-E from these two passes towards G219, they form two very good observation posts over G219 - like guardians of the gate along the stretch that overlooks the G219. Interestingly, they also bring the Zongcang radar station that overlooks Fukche airfield under observation. Also interestingly, the entrance to the Dumchele La from our road just north west of Fukche is a gentle and wide plain that allows vehicular movement (of course it gets funneled afterwards), but there are roads on the Chinese side. There also appear to roads running along the ridgeline connecting these two passes (NW-SE direction) on both the Eastern and Western sides so the Chinese have the ability to provide mutual support to these two passes. But, if we are able to take these two, with whatever blood is shed, they shouldn't be returned and that radar station must be eliminated. The prize would be the threat to G219 (they won't be able to have troops unimpeded access to SiriJap from Ngari) and depth to defense of our Demchok-Fukche axis.

However, you haven't addressed my concern about the existing Chinese ability to concentrate forces, even armor along the Indus River valley. To prevent them from over-runing Demchok, we have no option but to fight them with armor there. As far as getting the armor there, I notice some roads and interesting installations from the Ulming La meeting the Demchok-Fukche road north west of Demchok. These are shielded from Chinese observation as far as I can tell.

As an aside, when I look at the "last-mile" infrastructure that the Chinese have built up (and the photos I see are only as recent as 2010) compared to ours, I am saddened that we didn't use the "peaceful" border management protocol to do some aggressive build up of our own. It really is a shame and criminal negligence on our part, leaving our forces to deal with such a logistical asymmetry.

[ks_sachin]

They were peers, commanding different panzer divisions during the French campaign.

I believe Heinz Guderian commanded an Armoured Corps during the initial attack phase of WWII, while Ervin Rommel commanded an Armoured Division during the same phase.

So, in a sense, Guderian was senior and importantly, also a mentor in the concept of armoured warfare.

However, Rommel was the upstart, his 7 Panzer Div earned the nickname 'Ghost Division' - in 1940 in the France campaign, they advanced so fast that they appeared were they weren't expected, and even the German HQ did not know their location. Rommel lead from the front, in his tank.

Is not Guderian credit as pioneering the concept of blitzkrieg?

[pankajs]

Can any one define what is victory for us without war?

If Chinese quietly move back to old positions: 1, 2 and 6. can we consider that as a victory to us and defeat for CORONA PING?

Would we be satisfied with it? Will that scare that madar***d not to try anything for next 10 years?

If they don't move back, is there any thing which we can occupy that will give us a leverage?

Real question is why will they move back? They are pretty well entrenched and I'm not sure what leverage we have over them.

Re. occupying something on their side, it is not an option any more as per S Jha as they have covered their bases (I can believe that, they have definitely come prepared).

Jha is right and wrong both.

The most "obvious" riposte axis from where a decent counter operation could be launched are all blocked i.e. the Chinese have deployed troop to hold the line @ Karakoram/DBO, Depsang, Galwan, Hotsprings, Gogra, Pangang Tso, Demchok & Chumur.

However, there are places where there are gaps that can be crossed on foot and do a well planned and backed Kargil type of operations.

The option of launching a frontal assault at one of the funnels and grabbing a few KM of territory is always on the table.

Btw, for anyone interested, the Ane La and Kui La option also seems to have occurred to the Chinese. If you look at map post by @abhik, you will notice an orange dot right between Gogra and Pangang Tso and next to where the two passes open up. It look like that camp has been established to block any flaking operation via those two passes.

[williams]

YIP,

Thank you again for providing food for thought. Here are some of my own:

Why are those two passes (marked as Na-La Shan Kou and Dumchele La on the map) critical for the Chinese when they have a black top road passing along the Indus river valley on the West Bank of the river

@Anoop

To understand significance of the passes in the eastern ridge facing Indus, compare Dungti to Demchok with the area Murgo to Shyok Bend (i.e. lower Shyok Valley before it turns westwards, and including Galwan confluence with Shyok.)

In the latter, we have the east bank of the Shyok and are fighting savagely to prevent the Chinese from controlling heights overlooking Shyok. That is why we can still use DSDBO road for legit operational purposes. Simple fact is that we can build a four lane expressway from Dungti to Demchok, but have no control over it because the Chinese sit at the heights overlooking it from the east. This is where Dumchele La comes in - it permits their control over those heights, much as Galwan valley would permit control over the heights overlooking DSDBO road.

So if we want to attack G219 or threaten Ngari, we can't attack southwards from Demchok because we will not be able to concentrate units without being observed and interdicted. We have to attack west to east, through passes like Dumchele La. East of that ridge, there is an armour friendly plain where we would turn southwards, towards Jara La. Jara La is the gateway to Ngari and G219.

Adding an image to show the ground situation of LAC in the Demchok village (I am guessing about 10 km further northwest from Indian claim line) I do see IA positions in few of the ridgeline west of this village.

[pankajs]

Folks, take a look at the structures bang in the middle of the frame.

https://zoom.earth/#view=32.40312,79.98 ... sri,labels


Looks like 2 tunnel entrances. South-west of Ngari.

[fanne]

TSP has 2 div worth of army in Balistan (not including Giligit). We perhaps need force to stop them. What could be their axis of advance if they want to do a tango with chinese. Going through high mountains through saltoro/siachin is impossible. What could be other routes? Maybe force is needed to stop that possibility.

Pakistan's FCNA - which roughly handles the area from Muzaffarabad, upto the Siachen Glacier, has 5 brigades. Against that, we have 28th Inf division in the Gurez area and 8th Mountain Div at Dras. That is the normal ORBAT for both sides. Any extra deployment for either side could not make much sense, as the terrain rules out any offensive operations unless there is overwhelming superiority.

Pakis have brought out reserves (not clear which), see tweet below (5 hours old). Other reports say additional 20,000 soldiers (that they can use somewhere else in the indo pak border). If that is the case (I am just speculating based on news), pakis are upto something big. You make another assumption that it is to help/coordinate with chinese (it could very well be defensive deployment from tsp angle), the two two axis readily available is Kargil Leh and Turtruk Leh. This time attack on Kargil will not be to take height and interdict NH1, but to make a breakthrough and dash to Leh. And they are willing to bet 20,000 additional men to it (meaning they are willing to put up with some 4000-5000 casualty). We have to change our deployment accordingly (of course verified with intelligence, we also do not have infinite troops, some sitting here for nothing means we cannot use them elsewhere). Even if this is TSP plan (I have no idea if this is), it looks very iffy, but good to have it spelt in this thread out.

https://twitter.com/Lone_wolf110/status ... 1418953728
"Pakistan has upgraded its defensive posturing along the Line of Control and has brought it reserve forces, Indian Army is prepared for any action to counter Pak misadventures": Lt Gen BS Raju, GOC of 15 Corps.

[Cain Marko]

Pakistan's FCNA - which roughly handles the area from Muzaffarabad, upto the Siachen Glacier, has 5 brigades. Against that, we have 28th Inf division in the Gurez area and 8th Mountain Div at Dras. That is the normal ORBAT for both sides. Any extra deployment for either side could not make much sense, as the terrain rules out any offensive operations unless there is overwhelming superiority.

When it comes to 2 divisions worth as normal detachments from either side, would it not be possible to degrade said force on opposite side using massive air and artillery/missile strikes? Impose nfz. Thereafter what stops 2 Indian divisions to capture and hold?

Pakis have brought out reserves (not clear which), see tweet below (5 hours old). Other reports say additional 20,000 soldiers (that they can use somewhere else in the indo pak border). If that is the case (I am just speculating based on news), pakis are upto something big. You make another assumption that it is to help/coordinate with chinese (it could very well be defensive deployment from tsp angle), the two two axis readily available is Kargil Leh and Turtruk Leh. This time attack on Kargil will not be to take height and interdict NH1, but to make a breakthrough and dash to Leh. And they are willing to bet 20,000 additional men to it (meaning they are willing to put up with some 4000-5000 casualty). We have to change our deployment accordingly (of course verified with intelligence, we also do not have infinite troops, some sitting here for nothing means we cannot use them elsewhere). Even if this is TSP plan (I have no idea if this is), it looks very iffy, but good to have it spelt in this thread out.

https://twitter.com/Lone_wolf110/status ... 1418953728
"Pakistan has upgraded its defensive posturing along the Line of Control and has brought it reserve forces, Indian Army is prepared for any action to counter Pak misadventures": Lt Gen BS Raju, GOC of 15 Corps.

Hope they do try something, it'll give India all the more reason (not that one is needed) to do the needful.

[KLNMurthy]

...

Varun, no doubt that he is useful. But if he shouts less, gives others a chance to talk, moderates his debates better, invites sober guests instead of traitors and Pakis and then yells at them; he will be more effective on movers and shakers. Right now, I am sure he has a loyal fan base, but even RW intellectuals don't take him seriously. So its a wasted effort IMO. Likewise, Rahul Shivshankar on TimesNow who shouts a tad less but again has all kinds of rif raff on his show like Pappu's perverts that dilutes the content of shows.

I think the right way to think about AG is to ask, what message is he conveying to the world about India?

I believe it is the opposite of, “hey look world, we Indians are good boys & girls, trying hard to be teacher’s pets, following all the rules of civil / civilized discourse. So, please please, teacher, tell this bully, who breaks all the rules and always gets all the breaks, to stop bullying us, pretty please. And if you don’t, we understand, we’ll try to be good sports and still survive.”

It is a snarling and a showing of the teeth. Not a pretty sight or sound for delicate sensibilities, and for people who are obsessed with being seen as respectable, and fret constantly about every little thing about 1.3B Indians that we think may reflect poorly on us personally, or in our place of work or business. But IMO it is quite essential in the real world to show that India is not just about bourgeois respectability.

Look at it in proportion: a zillion insincere, agenda-driven smarmy slimy respectable hosts versus one AG. I think that’s more than OK.

[AshishA]

All the ideas about Chinese rising up, demanding democracy are American propaganda. So long as they can hold on to wat they have, they won't raise their head.
What is actually likely in the case of Hanland is a palace coup. Eleven is GEISHA for life, which if you're an ambitious CCP guy means his neck is all that lies between you and the throne. The upper echelon of CCP got there by being extremely ambitious, cuthroats. Would the next generation just give away their rights? Remember their game has so far relied on a decadal transfer of power. These guys have spent 40 years fighting their way up the ladder, kicking people, backstabbing, changing loyalties and what not. And now the top is locked, the first whiff of a chance and there will be a move to get rid of Xi. Think of it like a queue of people outside a toilet waiting and waiting and waiting. How long before somebody gets annoyed enough to break the door and throw out the person sitting on the porcelain throne?

The uprisings I was talking about is in Xinjiang and Tibet. Not necessarily democratic movement. But a violent rebellion like what happened in Chechnya. Or Something that keeps their attention on internal affairs.

And even if the palace coup happens, I don't think the next guy that will come will be any better than Eleven. He might be even worse than Eleven in terms of delusions about being Emperor of the world.

And even they might not want revenge, but they are sure to come back after they feel confident enough to beat us right?

So my point was, what must be done to remove this Chinese threat permanently? How can we defang the Chinese and make their country similar to a place the former Soviet Russia was in the 90s and early 2000s after their breakup.

The way I see it, even if war happens now, it will do nothing but delay the next conflict. So along with Military defeat of China, we must think about how to permanently remove the Chinese threat.

[Rs_singh]

AshishAcharya,

What can we do to remove the Chinese threat? Absolutely nothing. Hold steadfast, they are undoing themselves double time.
Our military object should be to restore status quo on the border.
Our political objective should be to kick start a decoupling process from the Chinese economy. It’s countries like India where they thrive by dumping their cheap garbage and killing domestic competitors.
Our strategic objective should be to come into an alliance of common interest with like minded countries in the region by offering them an alternative to China.

Of course, none of this is possible without a strong economy and own MIC.

[Rs_singh]

Fanne,

The additional reserve deployment by PA is purely defensive in nature owing to their own pol mil compulsions against own buildup in the area. Here is 15 Corp GOC confirming the same:

https://youtu.be/0nM9d6lHOUU

I said a while back that PA deployment is out of their own needs and is strictly defensive. They might up the ante here and there but that’s about it. Here is an article by SOAS analyst with roots in the PA establishment confirming the same:

https://theprint.in/opinion/why-pakista ... ct/454034/

PA gernails are too invested in the west both personally and commercially. After all, they have a business to run and pasta to sell. A small call from SecState or secDef will go a long way in pindi to get them to recommit to their values of democracy, human enterprise and a free and open Indo pacific.

[srin]

AshishAcharya,

What can we do to remove the Chinese threat? Absolutely nothing. Hold steadfast, they are undoing themselves double time.
Our military object should be to restore status quo on the border.
Our political objective should be to kick start a decoupling process from the Chinese economy. It’s countries like India where they thrive by dumping their cheap garbage and killing domestic competitors.
Our strategic objective should be to come into an alliance of common interest with like minded countries in the region by offering them an alternative to China.

Of course, none of this is possible without a strong economy and own MIC.

The last lime is problematic. Since we don’t have either, you think it isn’t possible for us to restore status quo ? Or start decoupling from their economy?

[Rs_singh]

RaviB,

100% agree on no Han actually wanting democracy and that it’s American propaganda. They are not known to be a very democratic people, in fact they are a very centralized society and have always been so.
I also see a coup within the CCP as very very likely, But it’s so opaque that details would likely never come out and one day we will just simply meet the new chairperson of the CMC with Geisha likely ending up in a re-education camp in Inner Mongolia learning sweater knitting at best or the firing squad at worst. I do not see the CCP going anywhere in the medium term. Just like the USSR was, until it wasn’t.

[vijayk]

I wonder why we have not introduced a UN resolution condemning barbarians about how they spread Wuhan Virus and killed 500,000 people and using the moment to spread terror and wars.

[Rs_singh]

AshishAcharya,

The last lime is problematic. Since we don’t have either, you think it isn’t possible for us to restore status quo ? Or start decoupling from their economy?

The tactical objective of restoring status quo can likely be achieved, though, I do not rule out a stalemate. A protracted conflict isn’t in either sides interests. Furthermore, I believe the PLA will likely offer withdrawal from a couple places in exchange for consolidation in other areas of its own interest as a compromise. What the Indian leadership has signaled though is that no compromise is possible and anything short of status quo is unacceptable. The ball is effectively in their court. I’m sure a certain timeline would have been conveyed to through military channels. I would suspect this will play out this week. What will be interesting to note will be to see what GOI does if they do not withdraw. Will we go for another round of talks and keep repeating this process or will be initiate action.

The MIC and economy points were more directed at the strategic and political objectives. If we have to confront them seriously, we need to get our house in order.

Also, happy to note that I was wrong. No hostilities commenced in the 24hr window as I had postulated.

[AshishA]

Along with the economy and MIC, we as a people of India must take care to never vote in a coalition govt consisting of people who are secretly on Chinese payroll. The stakes are too high. We can't afford to have a weak leadership in the future.

[Guddu]

Looks like Doval level talks are in the offing. Time pass or meaningful de-escalation?

https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... n-6491847/

[Philip]

We are still looking at events from a limited perspective,whether we can win a 2- front war,etc. " Peace is the interlude between wars",old saying. "During peace prepare for war",another which we have forgotten at times.In times gone by ,wars spanned decades,centuries,etc. Take the Crusades for example.Several of them.The Roman Punic wars against Carthage,massive casualties over 100 years .The Macedonian wars againt Greece same period. The "100 years war",actually 116 yrs. between France and England. The two "World Wars" of the last century .The Afghan wars from the days of the Raj still continue with the Yanquis having replaced the Brirish with no end in sight! We had Gulf War 1 and 2,Iraq still smoulders,so does the Arab- Israeli conflict.

Our failure ,India since Partition,failing to read our wars in such historical fashion ,is why we keep repeating them,conflict at regular intervals. In truth we have been at war with Pakistan since 1948! This war has not ended.Like the embers in the grate of a fireplace ,the flames suddenly spring to life. Have we not had a continuous proxy war with Pak from the '80s? When the Khalistani movement erupted and Punjab was burning,I happened to be abroad discussing the same with a v.highly placed leader of a foreign state who was keen to know what it was all about. I told the individual that it was a diversion by Pak, a sideshow ( that we would eventually take care of) and that they were planning for the real war in Kashmir to be executed in similar fashion.And so it came to be. Perhaps we should use the word " conflict" instead of war since battles and wars begin and end in their limited timeframes but the conflict endures.

By this definition,our conflict with China began in the era of post- colonial Independent India in 1962. A conflict destined to happen as the two mightiest nations of Asia in terms of population ,which were the richest nations on the planet in the pre-colonial age ,jostle for power and prestige in Asia and beyond after their freedom from the shackles of colonial rule. The interests of India and China were bound to clash because of the vast differences in language,culture,ethnicity, religion ( China is Godless and actively cracks down on religious entities) and political systems. China turned into a Communist dictatorship after overthrowing
its emperor, but India into a democratic republic. '62,'87,Doklam,Galwan are one continuous thread of Sino- Indian rivalry. China has since '62 picked upon Pak as its proxy to divert India's attention from it's global ambitions.And now, it is absorbing Pak openly into its battle plans against India for the next phase as India has steadily left Pak far behind in almost every dimension except that of terrorism!

So how can we counter this JV against us which when you add the combined military forces of Pak and China which on paper overwhelm us? Chinese forces alone outnumber us significantly. In the Ladakh theatre they have built up reserves well described in above posts. Unfortunately the likes of certain TV channels with hyperventilating myopic jingo anchors, dub those who doubt our ability to win a "war" against China as traitors,appeasers,etc.,instead of being individuals who see the conflict in its larger dimension,not just the military aspects of the situ today . These prefer the adage," fools step in where angels fear to tread",instead of " he who hesitates is lost." Attacking China at this juncture unprepared for the long haul coud be a huge mistake.
Let's look at our options in the immediate and short term only as these are what we need to checkmate the Chins in this round.

First we need to take maximum immediate efforts at plugging the gaps in our military inventory for all 3 services.China Virus crisis notwithstanding, the armed forces must be given their critical needs.Not a single critical item must be witheld from them factoring in for a long haul which may last several months. Many items and options have been discussed on BRF in other threads.The money has to be found and everything procured cannot be at " made in India" speed waiting for the desi dosa to arrive from the DPSU kitchens. Decisions pending for years must be taken rapidly as we are at war today. While we cannot match China and Pak combined number for number,there are priorities of systems and numbers which would be sufficient in the immediate term to cast doubt in the Chins mindset to further escalate the conflict. Simultaneously with the military buildup, and examining our own strengths such as in the maritime sphere,we need to outflank the Chinese on the diplomatic and economic front too. These are areas which we have several advantages over China especially diplomatic,by using the two " T" cards. Our mice in the MEA need to be replaced with real men unafraid to teach China another kind of lesson. Economic measures,boycotts,sanctions,etc. have begun but must be relentlessy pursued. How we plan for the future is another matter for discussion,but we must understand that this military crisis in Ladakh is part of a master plan which will continue beyond our lifetimes.

[SSridhar]

China claims Bhutan land in its ‘bid to pressure India’ - ToI

On Saturday, the Chinese foreign ministry said the China-Bhutan boundary has never been delimited and there “have been disputes over the eastern, central and western sections for a long time”, cautioning “third party” (read India) to refrain from stepping into the breach.

[arshyam]

And even if the palace coup happens, I don't think the next guy that will come will be any better than Eleven. He might be even worse than Eleven in terms of delusions about being Emperor of the world.

That's right - China, irrespective of who's ruling from Zhongnanhai, has steadfastly held on to its claims even if it did not have the power to enforce them. They'd simply wait it out for the time they can actually do something about it. It comes from their self-styled "middle kingdom" nonsense. So we should not think of Xi alone as the problem, but China itself.

And even they might not want revenge, but they are sure to come back after they feel confident enough to beat us right?

Definitely. I'd rather deal with them right away and achieve some tactical goals while the momentum is with us, than be on the defensive for the next couple of decades - it's impossible to stay at the same level of alertness for such a long time, not to mention there will be a different govt in Delhi that may not adopt the same posture as the current one.

So my point was, what must be done to remove this Chinese threat permanently? How can we defang the Chinese and make their country similar to a place the former Soviet Russia was in the 90s and early 2000s after their breakup.

The way I see it, even if war happens now, it will do nothing but delay the next conflict. So along with Military defeat of China, we must think about how to permanently remove the Chinese threat.

The only permanent solution as I see it is to make Tibet independent with India guaranteeing its security, and freeing up Xinjiang into an independent country. That would ensure buffer states which is restoring the historical state of things and cutting off China's ambitions and self-image for good. It's a tall order, but can't think of any other alternative.

But this solution is not possible today given that we don't have the power to shape the outcome of events like this. So, beyond aggressively enforcing our border security (i.e. to ensure the LAC is more defensible and pose a threat to their hold on Tibet without actually attacking), do nothing in the short/medium term. Such a severe external threat to the CPC's hold on to power is sure to escalate to nuclear exchanges, which no one wants. We should also bide our time for a bit - they have a tendency to tear at each other every 200 years or so, and that's the time to intervene and do the above.

But this means we need to stay focused on our long term threat so we don't lose sight of these goals when the opportunity presents itself. Towards that end, it is imperative that the current govt set the discourse to unambiguously define who the enemy is, and take all possible actions to reinforce it, while rapidly building up our economy and standard of living (the latter is all we want, really). So steps I can think of:

1. Designate China as our enemy nation (as of now, officially we only have George Fernandes' statement from two decades ago).
2. Make sure our economy is minimally dependent on them, wherever possible, get them to be dependent on us, etc.
3. Identify specific sectors where we can compete and back them to the hilt. If needed, consider borrowing from the keiretsu/chaebol concepts (many of our companies are already conglomerates anyway).
4. Aggressively build our military capabilities using local equipment. Where not available, start working on indigenous capabilities.
4a. Also, this 1.5% of GDP will not cut it - though defense gets a sizeable chunk in the govt's budgetary allocation, it is still not enough. Come up with a formula that ensures 3% GDP spend on defense, at least, while ensuring the remaining 1.5% over and above today's spend is spent entirely within the country. That's another $48B (₹3.6 lakh crores) to be spent within the country with all the good effect on the economy.
4b. Stop being squeamish about defense expense - Modi's statement about "Veera bhogya vasundhara" is the right template to build upon.
5. Clear-eyed diplomacy to get other countries to look at China the same way - we have a huge helping hand here, the CCP itself.
5a. But where needed, keep provoking China so they lash out at others and raise their hackles, maybe even get them to fight a war or two with a few others (why should we alone fight them?). Let others too feel the heat and re-align with us based on their own interests. Such a coalition is bound to be stronger than one simply based on shared rhetoric.
5b. This is important as we alone cannot ensure Tibet and Xinjiang stay viable, we'll need cooperation from other countries - US, Japan, Vietnam, of course, but also Russia, Mongolia, etc. In that sense, I welcome China poking the bear with claims over Vladivostok.
6. Basically, China has to replace Pakistan as our ever-present threat in the public discourse.

This policy should be so well-entrenched that a future congress/coalition govt finds it impossible to back down and fall prey to chinese manipulations. In that sense, Xi has provided us with a great opportunity. I really hope we seize it and make the best of it for ourselves, the stars are well aligned right now: a favourable external environment, an obliging and prickly China, a world pissed off by the Wuhan virus, a strong and stable and nationalist govt with little influence of the wolly-headed Nehruvian thinking that has been our bane. If we don't act now, then we'll never get this chance again.

Btw, if China gets taken care of like my wish above, the next focus will be on us, to be sure. Who's focus - it's rather obvious . But that's OT for this thread, so won't expound further.

PS: This is getting into "neutering" area from the border security area, so cross-posting on the other thread. Let's continue there.

[AshishA]

In midst of all this military and geopolitical analysis, here's a video on what common Indians like us can do.
https://youtu.be/6IPdjCvopHQ

Our thinking must change in the way the video talks about.

We must become chase down Chinese in terms of development and economy

We must put in whatever efforts possible as people in ensuring our country in 10 years pulls ahead of the Chinese in economic terms. This is what the Japanese did after world war. This is what Koreans did. And this is what the Chinese did. This wake up call must stir the nation towards one common goal. Becoming more developed than China.

[Deans]

Pakistan's FCNA - which roughly handles the area from Muzaffarabad, upto the Siachen Glacier, has 5 brigades. Against that, we have 28th Inf division in the Gurez area and 8th Mountain Div at Dras. That is the normal ORBAT for both sides. Any extra deployment for either side could not make much sense, as the terrain rules out any offensive operations unless there is overwhelming superiority.

When it comes to 2 divisions worth as normal detachments from either side, would it not be possible to degrade said force on opposite side using massive air and artillery/missile strikes? Impose nfz. Thereafter what stops 2 Indian divisions to capture and hold?

Pakis have brought out reserves (not clear which), see tweet below (5 hours old). Other reports say additional 20,000 soldiers (that they can use somewhere else in the indo pak border). . Even if this is TSP plan (I have no idea if this is), it looks very iffy, but good to have it spelt in this thread out.

https://twitter.com/Lone_wolf110/status ... 1418953728
"Pakistan has upgraded its defensive posturing along the Line of Control and has brought it reserve forces, Indian Army is prepared for any action to counter Pak misadventures": Lt Gen BS Raju, GOC of 15 Corps.

Hope they do try something, it'll give India all the more reason (not that one is needed) to do the needful.

In the Kargil war, we had 2 divisions backed up by a massive artillery bombardment and it took us 2 months to advance around 5 km, across a
front held by a few hundred men. That was not due to any inadequacy of our forces, but the reality of mountain warfare. Deployment along the
whole of North Kashmir will be defensive in nature and where there is both surprise and numerical superiority one may try to capture tactically important positions.

Pakistan's reserve is their XI corps in Peshawar which has 2 divisions (and an armored brigade in Naoshera), which, to some extent, is involved in counter insurgency against the bad Taliban. If they wanted to threaten India with this reserve , it would probably make more sense to place them opposite Jammu (hoping to ensure that there is no transfer of units of IX corps in Yol, from the Pakistan front to the LAC), or in places along the LOC where they have a terrain advantage and can facilitate infiltration. (like the Uri Poonch bulge).

[SSridhar]

India set to pose growing challenge to China at sea - South China Morning Post

India is likely to pose an increased challenge to China at sea following their recent confrontation on land,
analysts said.

Last week, the Indian Navy and Japanese Maritime Self-Defence Force held a joint exercise in the Indian Ocean, as part of the nascent “Quad” that also involves the United States and Australia.

India has already held regular bilateral exercises with the other three armed forces and has said it might invite Australia to join the “Malabar” war games it holds with Japan and the US.

Lin Minwang, deputy director of Fudan University’s Centre for South Asian Studies, said the country’s relationship with the US had already developed into a quasi-alliance.

In recent years New Delhi has signed several agreements with Washington, some of which have significant military implications.

These deals include the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement to enable the use of each other’s land, air and naval bases for repair and resupply; the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement that opened the way for sales of sensitive US military equipment; and the General Security of Military Information Agreement to share classified information.

Discussions are also under way to place liaison officers in each other’s commands.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also set out plans for an “Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative” to ensure security at sea that echoes similar proposals by the US.

“India’s strategic concern is targeted at China,” Lin said.

Tensions between India and China remain high following last month’s deadly border clash that killed 20 Indian and an undisclosed number of Chinese soldiers.

The Indian Navy was also taking part in a joint “China containment” effort with the US in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean, said Beijing-based naval analyst Li Jie.

“The Indian Navy alone cannot compete with the PLA Navy. But by allying with Japan or the US, it could be in a much better position,” Li said.

“India wants dominance in that region while the Americans are playing them off against China.”

The Indian Ocean lies at the centre of global oil transport networks, and is also a vital trade route for China, linking it to Europe, Africa and the Middle East.

President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative , which aims to boost infrastructure and trade, includes a “maritime silk road” that passes through the South China Sea and Malacca Strait before entering the Indian Ocean.

The PLA Navy has become increasingly active in the region in recent years, starting with anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden in 2008.
Its submarines have also been detected in the area from 2013 onwards and in 2017 it opened its first overseas base in Djibouti.

In addition, China has built ports in Gwadar in Pakistan, in Hambantota in Sri Lanka and Kyaukpyu in Myanmar under the Belt and Road Initiative, but critics – including India – have warned they have potential military uses.

India views China’s growing military presence in the Indian Ocean region – which involves building up a network of military and commercial facilities known as the “string of pearls” – as a major threat.

A recent report published in Modern Ships, a military magazine published by state-owned warship builder China State Shipbuilding Corporation, said the navy’s presence in the Indian Ocean was part of an “inexorable trend”, because its economic value to China was even higher than that of the Pacific.

But India’s geographic location means it can cut China’s trade routes to Europe using its air force and its naval expansion plans – including three aircraft carriers – would allow it to compete with China for air superiority across the Indian Ocean.

Li said the best way forward for the Chinese navy was to develop its capabilities and influence, but to show restraint while doing so.

“The Indian Ocean is not India’s ocean, and the PLAN will continue its normal voyages and activities,” he said.

[yensoy]

China claims Bhutan land in its ‘bid to pressure India’ - ToI

On Saturday, the Chinese foreign ministry said the China-Bhutan boundary has never been delimited and there “have been disputes over the eastern, central and western sections for a long time”, cautioning “third party” (read India) to refrain from stepping into the breach.

Most interesting is the fact that China doesn't even share a border with this "disputed area". It lies across from Tawang which of course in Chinese minds belongs to them. This is most certainly psyops. It is clear the Chinese are provoking us to the hilt. It is also clear what we should do, which is to bide our time and give them a response at a time and place of our choosing.

[suryag]

Deans Sir one minor nitpick, during kargil we couldn't effect a pincer or encirclement nor use airpower to further any objectives except for dislodging the intruders. Things may may have been way different if all options including crossing IB were approved