suryag wrote:Deans Sir one minor nitpick, during kargil we couldn't effect a pincer or encirclement nor use airpower to further any objectives except for dislodging the intruders. Things may may have been way different if all options including crossing IB were approved
We need to remember, Pakis had tried and tested Chinese Nukes and during at beginning of May 1999 we had 0 operational Prithvi's, let alone Agni;s, we operationalised 5 Prithvi missiles. I remember during Kargil and Operational Parakram due to threat of Nukes, many companies especially IT heads were blasting the Government for "unnecessarily" provoking the Pakis.
So both the IA and IAF were heavily restricted - and Bill Clinton admin was strongly with the Pakis, Western Media was calling the Pakis on hill tops as Non State Mujaideen.
In fact when the Paki goose was cooked and after they lost all major positions, Bill Clinton bailed Pakis out by forcing us for a ceasefire.
The Pakis spun it that Nawaz saved them from certain victory- but it was Musharaf who begged Nawaz to go to Washington and get Bill Clinton to intervene.
We are still looking at events from a limited perspective,whether we can win a 2- front war,etc. " Peace is the interlude between wars",old saying. "During peace prepare for war",another which we have forgotten at times.In times gone by ,wars spanned decades,centuries,etc. Take the Crusades for example.Several of them.The Roman Punic wars against Carthage,massive casualties over 100 years .The Macedonian wars againt Greece same period. The "100 years war",actually 116 yrs. between France and England. The two "World Wars" of the last century .The Afghan wars from the days of the Raj still continue with the Yanquis having replaced the Brirish with no end in sight! We had Gulf War 1 and 2,Iraq still smoulders,so does the Arab- Israeli conflict.
Our failure ,India since Partition,failing to read our wars in such historical fashion ,is why we keep repeating them,conflict at regular intervals. In truth we have been at war with Pakistan since 1948! This war has not ended.Like the embers in the grate of a fireplace ,the flames suddenly spring to life. Have we not had a continuous proxy war with Pak from the '80s? When the Khalistani movement erupted and Punjab was burning,I happened to be abroad discussing the same with a v.highly placed leader of a foreign state who was keen to know what it was all about. I told the individual that it was a diversion by Pak, a sideshow ( that we would eventually take care of) and that they were planning for the real war in Kashmir to be executed in similar fashion.And so it came to be. Perhaps we should use the word " conflict" instead of war since battles and wars begin and end in their limited timeframes but the conflict endures.
By this definition,our conflict with China began in the era of post- colonial Independent India in 1962. A conflict destined to happen as the two mightiest nations of Asia in terms of population ,which were the richest nations on the planet in the pre-colonial age ,jostle for power and prestige in Asia and beyond after their freedom from the shackles of colonial rule. The interests of India and China were bound to clash because of the vast differences in language,culture,ethnicity, religion ( China is Godless and actively cracks down on religious entities) and political systems. China turned into a Communist dictatorship after overthrowing
its emperor, but India into a democratic republic. '62,'87,Doklam,Galwan are one continuous thread of Sino- Indian rivalry. China has since '62 picked upon Pak as its proxy to divert India's attention from it's global ambitions.And now, it is absorbing Pak openly into its battle plans against India for the next phase as India has steadily left Pak far behind in almost every dimension except that of terrorism!
So how can we counter this JV against us which when you add the combined military forces of Pak and China which on paper overwhelm us? Chinese forces alone outnumber us significantly. In the Ladakh theatre they have built up reserves well described in above posts. Unfortunately the likes of certain TV channels with hyperventilating myopic jingo anchors, dub those who doubt our ability to win a "war" against China as traitors,appeasers,etc.,instead of being individuals who see the conflict in its larger dimension,not just the military aspects of the situ today . These prefer the adage," fools step in where angels fear to tread",instead of " he who hesitates is lost." Attacking China at this juncture unprepared for the long haul coud be a huge mistake.
Let's look at our options in the immediate and short term only as these are what we need to checkmate the Chins in this round.
First we need to take maximum immediate efforts at plugging the gaps in our military inventory for all 3 services.China Virus crisis notwithstanding, the armed forces must be given their critical needs.Not a single critical item must be witheld from them factoring in for a long haul which may last several months. Many items and options have been discussed on BRF in other threads.The money has to be found and everything procured cannot be at " made in India" speed waiting for the desi dosa to arrive from the DPSU kitchens. Decisions pending for years must be taken rapidly as we are at war today. While we cannot match China and Pak combined number for number,there are priorities of systems and numbers which would be sufficient in the immediate term to cast doubt in the Chins mindset to further escalate the conflict. Simultaneously with the military buildup, and examining our own strengths such as in the maritime sphere,we need to outflank the Chinese on the diplomatic and economic front too. These are areas which we have several advantages over China especially diplomatic,by using the two " T" cards. Our mice in the MEA need to be replaced with real men unafraid to teach China another kind of lesson. Economic measures,boycotts,sanctions,etc. have begun but must be relentlessy pursued. How we plan for the future is another matter for discussion,but we must understand that this military crisis in Ladakh is part of a master plan which will continue beyond our lifetimes.
Manish_Sharma wrote:]Hari Sir here is 2018 book by Ravi Rikhye, here he says due to small budget spent on Defense we don't have ability to fight 2 front war, so what if Porkis open 2nd front on the 3rd week of War?
This is precisely why India cannot afford to let the twins attack first. The longer we wait, the worse we'll bleed.The initiative has to be ours and it has to be wrested from them..
Go for GB with a massive missile strike followed by spops and AF sorties. Occupy and hold. Crush the Pakistani head of the 2 headed snake and then turn and give the other a bloody nose. If they still have the fight left in them.
Screw this casus belli / log Kya kahenge nonsense. Jo jeeta wohi sikandar.
Chinese have pulled back by 1 to 2 KM in Galwan Valley.
In finger areas:-
Some Chinese posts dismantled at Finger 4 ridgeline
Some of the 62 new PLA Finger 4 positions moved
China had raised >300 new posts after May 10
Indian post west of Finger 4 remains
via Shiv Aroor
Other channels are also reporting citing "sources" that PLA has pulled back by 2Kms in Galwan valley and IA doing likewise after verification that all structures erected have been pulled down.
Cain Marko wrote:
When it comes to 2 divisions worth as normal detachments from either side, would it not be possible to degrade said force on opposite side using massive air and artillery/missile strikes? Impose nfz. Thereafter what stops 2 Indian divisions to capture and hold?
Hope they do try something, it'll give India all the more reason (not that one is needed) to do the needful.
In the Kargil war, we had 2 divisions backed up by a massive artillery bombardment and it took us 2 months to advance around 5 km, across a
front held by a few hundred men. That was not due to any inadequacy of our forces, but the reality of mountain warfare. Deployment along the
whole of North Kashmir will be defensive in nature and where there is both surprise and numerical superiority one may try to capture tactically important positions.
Pakistan's reserve is their XI corps in Peshawar which has 2 divisions (and an armored brigade in Naoshera), which, to some extent, is involved in counter insurgency against the bad Taliban. If they wanted to threaten India with this reserve , it would probably make more sense to place them opposite Jammu (hoping to ensure that there is no transfer of units of IX corps in Yol, from the Pakistan front to the LAC), or in places along the LOC where they have a terrain advantage and can facilitate infiltration. (like the Uri Poonch bulge).
DeanSji. This is not kargil. That was their initiative and they set the game. Nor did we have the right weapons then. I'm talking about a decisive escalation by India into Pok. There are certain nodes in that region, suchlike if we strike and hold, there is little that they can do. Their 2 divisions in Peshawar will be of little use.
Is it that impossible for India to impose an nfz in Pok? They have just about 5 brigades in GB. Without air cover,
they'll be hard-pressed.
There are roads from kargil to skardu to gilgit. If we have air cover, can't they be plied by Indian units?
It is a matter of time before Chinis stop recognizing A&N as Indian territory. It might even claim it as a Chinese territory or get one of the nearby country to claim it.
Claiming it as Chinese territory should not be difficult. Get some random map and claim that some Chinese explorer/trader had their bath there, so it is Chinese.
Looks like 2 tunnel entrances. South-west of Ngari.
Sir, check around 800 meters NE for 4 more.
All have come post 2012 before 2019. Before that, it was just barren land.
Rough calculation puts them at around 15 meters wide each. Assuming the shed next to it is around 3-3.5 meters then the depth also seems to be greater than 5 meters based on shadows falling. Theoretically good enough to fit tanks also!
Last edited by nishant.gupta on 06 Jul 2020 13:57, edited 1 time in total.
nam wrote:After the pullback claim, I am more worried about GoI doing a U turn with all the economic steps taken, than the Chinese coming back.
Our adversaries run ring around us, due to our flip flop on our policies against the enemies.
Isnt there a good chance that pull back by GoI on economic steps was the negotiation done for the Chinese military pull back? Good chance that the overt app bans etc will be taken back but I do hope a more robust plan will be put in for reducing long term dependence on Chinese manufacturing.
Cathay Pacific and HSBC bend to the whims of beijing, but mainland chinese-owned tiktok wouldn’t.
And if you believe that, I have a pre owned taj mahal to sell you, only one very careful previous owner.
The Wall Street Journal@WSJ
TikTok's new CEO Kevin Mayer says China had never requested the data of Indian users, and even if it had, the company wouldn’t comply
nam wrote:After the pullback claim, I am more worried about GoI doing a U turn with all the economic steps taken, than the Chinese coming back.
Our adversaries run ring around us, due to our flip flop on our policies against the enemies.
Obviously, we have to give up something to have them
pullback. And you're probably right that it would be economic based.
The GOI won't go back on the apps ban and the boycott is grassroots anyways. It not something the GOI can control.
What might happen is we stop blocking APIs and car parts so our own industries are not immediately affected. There are already pleas from the pharmaceutical, auto and electronics industries to allow imports through.
India needs to get away from dependence on Cheen but tge move has to be done strategically. It makes no sense to suddenly clobber those industries now with the country in recession.
This would be good move for both the economy and the situation in Galwan.
Eh, I pretty much gave up hope that there would be a kinetic military response after the 10 were released so this is good enough for me.
Last edited by chola on 06 Jul 2020 14:09, edited 1 time in total.
chetak wrote:Cathay Pacific and HSBC bend to the whims of beijing, but mainland chinese-owned tiktok wouldn’t.
And if you believe that, I have a pre owned taj mahal to sell you, only one very careful previous owner.
The Wall Street Journal@WSJ
TikTok's new CEO Kevin Mayer says China had never requested the data of Indian users, and even if it had, the company wouldn’t comply
I just colored the keyword here. It could have been "demanded", "extorted", "coerced" or "voluntarily shared".
nishant.gupta wrote:
Isnt there a good chance that pull back by GoI on economic steps was the negotiation done for the Chinese military pull back? Good chance that the overt app bans etc will be taken back but I do hope a more robust plan will be put in for reducing long term dependence on Chinese manufacturing.
More damage is caused to the Chinese by our economic steps like blocking access to indian markets for Chinese companies, than to us by PLA sitting on F4 ridges.
Blocking a app like TikTok has allowed Indian apps to grow within days. We are our self paying the Chinese to intrude on to our lands.
I don't expect GoI to do the right thing. In the name of bai chara, a loop hole will be found out to let the Chinese apps or companies in.
nam wrote:After the pullback claim, I am more worried about GoI doing a U turn with all the economic steps taken, than the Chinese coming back.
Our adversaries run ring around us, due to our flip flop on our policies against the enemies.
Obviously, we have to give up something to have them
The economic steps should be targeted at Chinese companies, not necessarily Chinese produced goods. If a Taiwanese company get's it's goods from China, our money will go in to paying taxes to the Taiwanese government and only a part of it will go to China.
When you get goods from Chinese companies, 100% of the taxes are going to PLA. That is the difference. CCP has no control over foreign companies taking goods out of China to India, even if CCP puts a ban on exporting goods to India. So they have no real leverage, being the seller.
It is also required for our own jokers, who under invoice Chinese imports and prefer to get Chinese goods, than make it in India itself. Chinese would not have had such a hold on our market, if not for our own two faced jokers.
If we are giving up "something", then PLA will keep coming in, every time CCP wants a economic concession from us. CCP is subsidizing Chinese exports and we have become the perfect example of success of that strategy of destruction of local industries and then Chinese domination.
It is very important for the App ban to continue for atleast 1 more year so that good desi alternatives get established. Even after that, Govt should ban app bundling by OEM which would favor Chinese who control 80% of the market. Otherwise whenever the ban is lifted, all Chinese apps will be back with a vengence.
chola wrote:
Obviously, we have to give up something to have them
The economic steps should be targeted at Chinese companies, not necessarily Chinese produced goods. If a Taiwanese company get's it's goods from China, our money will go in to paying taxes to the Taiwanese government and only a part of it will go to China.
When you get goods from Chinese companies, 100% of the taxes are going to PLA. That is the difference. CCP has no control over foreign companies taking goods out of China to India, even if CCP puts a ban on exporting goods to India. So they have no real leverage, being the seller.
It is also required for our own jokers, who under invoice Chinese imports and prefer to get Chinese goods, than make it in India itself. Chinese would not have had such a hold on our market, if not for our own two faced jokers.
If we are giving up "something", then PLA will keep coming in, every time CCP wants a economic concession from us. CCP is subsidizing Chinese exports and we have become the perfect example of success of that strategy of destruction of local industries and then Chinese domination.
OT for this thread but I agree with you. I have a tiny business in interiors and have enough vendors who get 10's of lakhs of furniture from China and show total as 1-2 lakhs for tax purpose. It might be possible that the "real" trade deficit is 60 Bn but the "ACTUAL" one may be way way higher.
chola wrote:
Obviously, we have to give up something to have them
The economic steps should be targeted at Chinese companies, not necessarily Chinese produced goods. If a Taiwanese company get's it's goods from China, our money will go in to paying taxes to the Taiwanese government and only a part of it will go to China.
When you get goods from Chinese companies, 100% of the taxes are going to PLA. That is the difference. CCP has no control over foreign companies taking goods out of China to India, even if CCP puts a ban on exporting goods to India. So they have no real leverage, being the seller.
It is also required for our own jokers, who under invoice Chinese imports and prefer to get Chinese goods, than make it in India itself. Chinese would not have had such a hold on our market, if not for our own two faced jokers.
If we are giving up "something", then PLA will keep coming in, every time CCP wants a economic concession from us. CCP is subsidizing Chinese exports and we have become the perfect example of success of that strategy of destruction of local industries and then Chinese domination.
From a purely economics viewpoint, many companies and industries are viable initially because there are readily available and affordable import components. The Indian pharma industry grew beyond any ability of the local API industry to support. The Chinese imports did not kill any existing capacity. The current electronics boomlet could not have existed without chini parts. There weren't much in India to begin with. But the main issue is they suppress new capacity for components once those industries are up.
With any new capacity in manufacturing, we can't wish it into existence overnight. Capital investment take years. The prudent way is to wean industries off import over time.
(Autos is a different story. We have organic capacity built up with Western and Korean/Japanese companies who in turn brought in their chini supply chain.)
Looks like 2 tunnel entrances. South-west of Ngari.
Sir, check around 800 meters NE for 4 more.
All have come post 2012 before 2019. Before that, it was just barren land.
Rough calculation puts them at around 15 meters wide each. Assuming the shed next to it is around 3-3.5 meters then the depth also seems to be greater than 5 meters based on shadows falling. Theoretically good enough to fit tanks also!
How many tanks can you fit in there and what is the strength of a Chinese tank battalion?
The digital companies have over inflated share prices and many CCP top echelons would indirectly own stake there. India's digital surgical strike meant they would have lost hundreds of Million USD. Besides global digital domination is a key strategic aim of CCP.
They cannot get there without world's second largest Internet market that is up for grabs. It was indeed a masterstroke by Modi.
But we should not barter it away. The ban should continue and India should actively promote made in India social media and other utility apps. And accelerating the make-in-India for mobile phones to eliminate the $13B to $20B yearly imports in mobile components either directly or indirectly from China.
SSridhar Ji, sorry for posting this on border security thread. But cyberwarfare, digital war and trade war are intertwined in the current context.
They key is India is using its trade imbalance and market access as key leverages for border issues. Which hasn't happened in the past and this seems to have worked in India's favor. This will forever change India's approach to China. Many other countries that have trade imbalance with China are likely to follow suit.
schinnas wrote:It is very important for the App ban to continue for atleast 1 more year so that good desi alternatives get established. Even after that, Govt should ban app bundling by OEM which would favor Chinese who control 80% of the market. Otherwise whenever the ban is lifted, all Chinese apps will be back with a vengence.
Why just 1 year, sir? China is a permanent enemy. Chinese apps are permanent data security threat (and associated national security threats via blackmailing, etc). If Modi goes back on the app ban now or later, I will put him in the same category as the idiot Nehru.
Hoping that we will never again see the spectacles such as Modi and Xi on a swing.
All the 'sources' based reports Indicate a pullback in Glawan valley. This may be due to the the river being in spate making the positions in the narrow valley dangerous. I hope the GOI fully follows the "Never Trust China" axiom and does not go for knee jerk economic concessions either on digital and/or on ImpEx fronts.
I guess there have been cries from Auto and Pharma industries on the 'go slow' being implemented on customs clearances, but these industries will never scout and explore alternate sources as long as easy and cheap supplies are available from Cheen. The rohna from Rajiv Bajaj being a clear indicator.
1. Pullback has to be on all axis of concentration including between F4-8 area of Pangang Tso PLUS the restoration of the right of Indian patrol to go up to F8. Anything less is partial wonlee.
2. China FULL roll back on LAC plus Indian FULL rollback on economic steps will be restoration of status quo wonlee.
3. GOI might ease up a bit on the economic steps, perhaps even rolling back on a few but it is never going to roll back all steps already taken. That will be a net gain.
4. Apps shouldn't be allowed back or IFFF they are allowed back, it should only be under FULL safeguard i.e. ALL servers in India, etc kind of stuff.
5. Modi has tried to work his charm with China and failed. I believe, Modi is a realist and he can see the writing on the wall. With China it has taken longer than with Bakistan BUT Modi has got educated by 11 Gin Pegs. Make no mistake!
6. Modi was a realist BEFORE the latest dust-up at the border. He is realist enough to see the need of border Infra and speed it up. He also pushed *fundamental* agreements with US than any of predecessors.
7. Modi's effort to *manage" border disagreements with China was dashed. Now, as a realist, I expect he will focus on getting sharpening the Indian offensive edge to our North.
8. Modi's belief that a free pass to China on economics/trade will temper its aggression has also been proven wrong. I expect him to more slowly but firmly to start closing the gap, covering our critical economics exposure to China, start pushing for reciprocal access more forcefully or shutting access to the Indian market, etc.
9. However, we must understand, the pullback, even if it complete, will change nothing. China wants a subservient India and FULL control of IOR. They might pull back for now but the project will not be shelved. India has to prepare for the long haul.
10. The possibility of a near-term conflict will not go away even with a pullback. The pullback will only add to the loss of face suffered by PLA after Galwan and Doklam. The current US presidential cycle is going to be very contentious and disruptive. I expect the US political elites to be distracted for 6 months on either side of the Nov'2020 US Presidential elections AND thus provide a window of opportunity to China in any axis of its choosing.
11. The possibility of a long-term conflict will remain till China's goals of dominating Indian sub-continent, dominating IOR and the World is still in play. Everything else is a temporary pause.
Last edited by pankajs on 06 Jul 2020 17:03, edited 1 time in total.
As border tensions with China spiked last month, the Indian Army asked the Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) to speed up deliveries of Extreme Cold Climate (ECC) clothing. The army wanted 80,000 pairs of three-layered ECC clothing made by the OFB’s Kanpur factory delivered for its soldiers as soon as possible. Each outfit is designed to protect a soldier from temperatures of 50 degrees below zero and wind velocities of 40 kmph. It was an early sign that the army anticipated a prolonged deployment in the Ladakh sector.
The army had, in June, moved in two infantry divisions (over 30,000 soldiers) into the Ladakh sector to beef up the two existing divisions under the Leh-based 14 Corps. One of these existing divisions faces Pakistan, the other China. The army’s deployments of over three divisions, backed by Indian Air Force (IAF) Apache helicopter gunships, Su-30 jets and C-17 heavy lifters, were in response to the biggest attempt by China’s PLA (People’s Liberation Army) to alter the Line of Actual Control (LAC) since the 1962 War.
The 14 Corps began an enhanced winter stocking last month to cater to twice as many troops. Winter stocking usually begins in June and takes nearly four months to complete, until the onset of winter in September. Petrol, kerosene, grain and pulses are trucked into Leh and stored for the winter, when the mountain passes leading into Kashmir and Ladakh are blocked by heavy snowfall. It takes a soldier at the heights a total of 800 kilos of provisions to last through the winter. Fresh fruit and vegetables are flown in by IAF heavy lift aircraft from Chandigarh. Apart from food, there is the need to protect forward deployed soldiers from the elements—Ladakh’s brutal high-altitude winter.
The Kargil War saw the Indian Army converting a 150-km stretch on the LoC into a hard deployment. The current stand-off with the PLA, irrespective of the outcome of the de-escalation, could result in a similar hardening along the LAC—a ploy to stretch the army out in a prolonged deployment. A Cold War in the literal and figurative sense.
I would suggest that during winters, IA should push it soldiers, wherever feasible, to push across the LAC at gaps where the Chinese don't have a post and leave proof of their presence and return.
It will ensure that China will have to push men and provisions to match us at the LAC right through the winters. Use the same ruse that the Chinese use i.e. the LAC us "undefined" PLUS LAC is "unmarked". Hence easy to stroll across in winter when every thing is covered with snow and the landscape becomes indistinguishable under a blanket of snow.
Last edited by pankajs on 06 Jul 2020 17:00, edited 1 time in total.
p_ram wrote:All the 'sources' based reports Indicate a pullback in Glawan valley. This may be due to the the river being in spate making the positions in the narrow valley dangerous. I hope the GOI fully follows the "Never Trust China" axiom and does not go for knee jerk economic concessions either on digital and/or on ImpEx fronts.
I guess there have been cries from Auto and Pharma industries on the 'go slow' being implemented on customs clearances, but these industries will never scout and explore alternate sources as long as easy and cheap supplies are available from Cheen. The rohna from Rajiv Bajaj being a clear indicator.
the biggest squealers are some darbari and house nigger industrialists around the pune belt, erstwhile members of the so called bombay club who thrived without competition during the congi permit raj system and continue to vociferously demand that the same conditions continue even in today's much changed business milieu.
p_ram wrote:All the 'sources' based reports Indicate a pullback in Glawan valley. This may be due to the the river being in spate making the positions in the narrow valley dangerous. I hope the GOI fully follows the "Never Trust China" axiom and does not go for knee jerk economic concessions either on digital and/or on ImpEx fronts.
I guess there have been cries from Auto and Pharma industries on the 'go slow' being implemented on customs clearances, but these industries will never scout and explore alternate sources as long as easy and cheap supplies are available from Cheen. The rohna from Rajiv Bajaj being a clear indicator.
Hero Cycle cancels deal of worth 900cr with China.
Chinese cos are banned from Highway Project in India.
only such chinese viruses are wailing and breast beating.
Currently all the measures taken by Govt relate to national security - Apps (data security, intel and market access), Infra projects (infra security and intel), power equipment (energy security and intel). Even if we were to give up one or two of these as part of the settlement, it's a less desirable outcome. We should have banned several non critical things such as toys, furniture, automobile parts, etc., and then rolled those back. Wonder if we gave enough room for negotiations? We perhaps didn't anticipate Cheen to cave in quickly. It only indicates that they want to focus more on HK and SCS and return to Ladakh later at a more convenient time for them.
100% agree on no Han actually wanting democracy and that it’s American propaganda. They are not known to be a very democratic people, in fact they are a very centralized society and have always been so.
I also see a coup within the CCP as very very likely, But it’s so opaque that details would likely never come out and one day we will just simply meet the new chairperson of the CMC with Geisha likely ending up in a re-education camp in Inner Mongolia learning sweater knitting at best or the firing squad at worst. I do not see the CCP going anywhere in the medium term. Just like the USSR was, until it wasn’t.
Yes, I think the Chinese political system is lined up for a gray swan event, just like the USSR. We know unpredictable and dramatic change will happen, we just don't know when. It's all just too opaque.
I love the image of Geisha knitting sweaters but I think it will be an unexpected heart attack or maybe plane crash or assassination.
RaviB wrote:All the ideas about Chinese rising up, demanding democracy are American propaganda. So long as they can hold on to wat they have, they won't raise their head.
What is actually likely in the case of Hanland is a palace coup. Eleven is GEISHA for life, which if you're an ambitious CCP guy means his neck is all that lies between you and the throne. The upper echelon of CCP got there by being extremely ambitious, cuthroats. Would the next generation just give away their rights? Remember their game has so far relied on a decadal transfer of power. These guys have spent 40 years fighting their way up the ladder, kicking people, backstabbing, changing loyalties and what not. And now the top is locked, the first whiff of a chance and there will be a move to get rid of Xi. Think of it like a queue of people outside a toilet waiting and waiting and waiting. How long before somebody gets annoyed enough to break the door and throw out the person sitting on the porcelain throne?
The uprisings I was talking about is in Xinjiang and Tibet. Not necessarily democratic movement. But a violent rebellion like what happened in Chechnya. Or Something that keeps their attention on internal affairs.
And even if the palace coup happens, I don't think the next guy that will come will be any better than Eleven. He might be even worse than Eleven in terms of delusions about being Emperor of the world.
And even they might not want revenge, but they are sure to come back after they feel confident enoughI do not see the CCP going anywhere in the medium term. Just like the USSR was, until it wasn’t to beat us right?
So my point was, what must be done to remove this Chinese threat permanently? How can we defang the Chinese and make their country similar to a place the former Soviet Russia was in the 90s and early 2000s after their breakup.
The way I see it, even if war happens now, it will do nothing but delay the next conflict. So along with Military defeat of China, we must think about how to permanently remove the Chinese threat.
Ashish ji, I answered this on the defanging China thread, since it might be OT on this thread.
chola wrote:
Obviously, we have to give up something to have them
The economic steps should be targeted at Chinese companies, not necessarily Chinese produced goods. If a Taiwanese company get's it's goods from China, our money will go in to paying taxes to the Taiwanese government and only a part of it will go to China.
SNIP the rest
.
If a Taiwanese company can produce in the land occupied by communist bandits. It can produce in India.
It now has to be insisted that no completely built in PRC stuff is to be imported in India. I understand that a total de-linking cannot happen immediately. But it has be done in the next 12 months.
For those wondering about ‘trusting’ China in the current disengagement process, let me reassure you — trust of the Chinese has never been lower. Matched only by the trust levels in the sixties. Zero trust in words or even limited actions. Army & IAF in op readiness.
but I think it will be an unexpected heart attack or maybe plane crash or assassination.