India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

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RaviB
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby RaviB » 08 Jul 2020 03:31

ramana wrote:Sachin, Maybe you should educate us? People don't understand logistics

Guys today was a day of victory that the Galwan Heroes got us.
And without even being happy for a minute, like Jambavan types in Ramayana, you are predicting doom and gllom.
Relax. We have the whole year to while and predict doom and gloom.

Brahma Chellaney types are dime a dozen.
His upset for he thought India will be new American Gungadin egged on by him.
Are Cassandra morons go listen to Jaishankar in March 2019 at the Raisiana Hill dialogs.
Petraeus was ginging ultimatum that India must choe.
And SJ said "India has chosen. Its to be on India's side"

RaviB, The few kilometers they would have gained are not strategic or tactical.
They are political to energize the beaten Congress pidis.


Sir, thank you for putting a smile on my face to replace the frown I've had all day long :D

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby LakshmanPST » 08 Jul 2020 03:42

I have a theory for the events that have been happening--->
Let us look back at the response of some of the countries to China on Covid:-
1) Taiwan was first to warn about Human-to-Human transmission and also said that WHO (under China influence) suppressed the news...
2) Japan was the first country to openly declare that they're moving their industries out of China...
3) Vietnam and India are the countries who're openly trying to attract industries that are moving out of China...
-
Isn't it a coincidence that China is being aggressive with exactly these four nations currently...
1) Their Navy sunk a Vietnam fishing ship...
2) Their Airforce is repeatedly violating Taiwan Airspace...
3) Their Navy is violating territorial waters of Japan...
4) Their Army is at our borders...

The way I see it, the whole drama is merely a warning and show of strength so that we do not take advantage of Covid-19...
If you remember reading some of their interviews posted on this thread, the most commonly repeated line is India is trying take advantage of China's weak position due to Covid... Though they made this statement in the context of LAC, I feel this is an indirect warning to us to not take economic and political advantage from Covid-19...
They made similar statement regarding Vietnam as well, that Vietnam is trying to take advantage of Covid and fishing in their waters...
-
Vietnam being a small country didn't retaliate militarily even though their ship was sunk... China can't take on Taiwan and Japan with Uncle Sam & his Carrier Battle Groups around... The only one left is India...

Since, we were not intimidated by Doklam and stood-up to them, they increased their force level now... We increased ours even more... They tried to scale up things a bit by killing our soldiers...
They clearly didn't expect our retaliation coz. we were continuously pushing for talks and deescalation until then... They would have thought that we would meet them the next day and diffuse the situation with talks...
Instead, it back-fired on them when our soldiers retaliated ferociously that very night...
And this incident actually made India take more aggressive steps on the economic front as well... We even sent out clear indications of preparations for a full-scale war...

I highly doubt Chinese were preparing for a war or a long stand-off... They only needed to show force to intimidate us, but it made things worse for them... So, they're probably moving back for now... They'll think through all this and will come back with a bigger plan...
Now, to withdraw, they need a temporary face-saver for their public... So, they're showing us as aggressors in their TV Shows... Also hiding their casualties to show that they successfully thwarted Indian aggression...
While this is enough for public consumption, it won't be enough for internal party politics... Xi need to retaliate and retaliate big... Otherwise, his position will be in danger... And the only way they can retaliate is militarily... They have no other option...

The retaliation may come tomorrow or in a couple of months or next year, no one knows... We need to be ready and ever-vigilant...

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ramdas » 08 Jul 2020 03:58

Any military action that PLA undertakes will not give the PLA better results than its 1979 war with Vietnam, particularly if we choose to fight defensively. The issue is that internal fifth columnists (congress pidis and allied pseudointellectuals in particular) would try to spin it as a national defeat in order to push their BIF agenda. The most important thing to do in case of PLA aggression would be to have a state of emergency for the next several years (I would say 10-15 years or so), and use that to make sure that no 0.5 front is feasible ever again.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby KL Dubey » 08 Jul 2020 04:02

RaviB wrote:
Imagine if you see a big elephant kicking the street dog you occasionally give stale rotis to, would you go and fight the elephant? Not worth the risk. China has never come to the aid of Pakistan regardless of how deep the Himalayas are or how high honey is.


Not a good analogy. China has supplied Pak the technology and equipment for nuclear weapons, missiles, and a wide variety of other things over the last 40-50 years. It has also a large military interest in the Balochistan area and the CPEC corridor to the IOR. And it helps the Paks "keep the lights on" to continue needling India.

At this time Chinese have a mortal fear that Pak will collapse after loss of POK and GB to India. That will be a complete failure of their South Asia strategy and they will be out of the picture in the subcontinent and pretty much in the northern Indian Ocean. They are hoping to delay our POK and GB action as much as possible. For that, the only option is to show some sort of aggression like they have done now. There is no choice, that is why they have done it.

I am pretty sure nobody in the Indian establishment trusts the Chinese in this "pull back". Satellites and other intelligence will be providing a very detailed picture of what the Chinese are doing behind the LAC. No point trying to second-guess the people who are doing their job. We are not going to let down the guard.

To me the main thing is that we should never get back to "business as usual" with China on any front (military/economic/political). No bargaining of any kind. We need to accelerate internal and external policies that build up our country to the next level, take business away from China, and prevent the Chinese from participating in our economy. Internally, we have carried out 20 years worth of reforms in the last 2 "Covid" months, and allocated about $1 trillion PPP for boosting the economy. That is a great start.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby suryag » 08 Jul 2020 04:06

Ramana garu not that am not happy about the interim resolution of the situation, trying to still gauge their thought behind the whole mindless exercise.

Lakshman Sir the retaliation by our troops no doubt put fear of Mao in them however, a country that is known to use their soldiers as cannon fodder wouldnt care if they lost 40 or 100 bodies. If it is just force projection they could have done that in the eastern theater with far lower costs given their logistic lines are better there which begs the question why Aksai Hind sector ? The theory that they needed some external threat to calm their population down also seems flimsy given they police everything on the web/SM.

The only theory that seems plausible IMVHO is that we made a series of moves on GB(370, weather reporting,etc) and added to that was the ever increasing unrest in Balochistan and PoK by the aam abdul. May be the Porkis are hit very badly by Covid and were feeling vulnerable and went complaining to the CCP that if there was a move by India they wouldnt be able to defend and all the hopes of CPEC surviving in any format would be lost. We also need to understand Pakis no longer have the US backing them as before so the Pakis had no one to complain to except CCP. Meanwhile, the CCP thought why not grab some land while projecting force. Remember they moved some commandu troops and replaced the regular units, why would someone do it if their main aim was only show of force? The game changer partly was our assault on 15/16th.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby KL Dubey » 08 Jul 2020 04:11

suryag wrote:The only theory that seems plausible IMVHO is that we made a series of moves on GB(370, weather reporting,etc) and added to that was the ever increasing unrest in Balochistan and PoK by the aam abdul. May be the Porkis are hit very badly by Covid and were feeling vulnerable and went complaining to the CCP that if there was a move by India they wouldnt be able to defend and all the hopes of CPEC surviving in any format would be lost. We also need to understand Pakis no longer have the US backing them as before so the Pakis had no one to complain to except CCP. Meanwhile, the CCP thought why not grab some land while projecting force. Remember they moved some commandu troops and replaced the regular units, why would someone do it if their main aim was only show of force? The game changer partly was our assault on 15/16th.


^^Yes. See my post above.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Vivasvat » 08 Jul 2020 04:27

LakshmanPST wrote:I have a theory for the events that have been happening--->
Let us look back at the response of some of the countries to China on Covid:-
1) Taiwan was first to warn about Human-to-Human transmission and also said that WHO (under China influence) suppressed the news...
2) Japan was the first country to openly declare that they're moving their industries out of China...
3) Vietnam and India are the countries who're openly trying to attract industries that are moving out of China...
-
Isn't it a coincidence that China is being aggressive with exactly these four nations currently...
1) Their Navy sunk a Vietnam fishing ship...
2) Their Airforce is repeatedly violating Taiwan Airspace...
3) Their Navy is violating territorial waters of Japan...
4) Their Army is at our borders...

The way I see it, the whole drama is merely a warning and show of strength so that we do not take advantage of Covid-19...


The CCP amby in UK just gave it a warning:
https://twitter.com/AmbLiuXiaoMing/status/1280572886319857666
@AmbLiuXiaoMing
A: Some UK politicians regard China as a threat. The truth is China wants to be UK’s friend and partner. But if you treat China as a hostile country, you would have to bear the consequences. To quote Zbigniew Brzezinski: If we treat China like an enemy, they will become an enemy.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ks_sachin » 08 Jul 2020 04:46

RaviB wrote:
ramana wrote:Sachin, Maybe you should educate us? People don't understand logistics

Guys today was a day of victory that the Galwan Heroes got us.
And without even being happy for a minute, like Jambavan types in Ramayana, you are predicting doom and gllom.
Relax. We have the whole year to while and predict doom and gloom.

Brahma Chellaney types are dime a dozen.
His upset for he thought India will be new American Gungadin egged on by him.
Are Cassandra morons go listen to Jaishankar in March 2019 at the Raisiana Hill dialogs.
Petraeus was ginging ultimatum that India must choe.
And SJ said "India has chosen. Its to be on India's side"

RaviB, The few kilometers they would have gained are not strategic or tactical.
They are political to energize the beaten Congress pidis.


Sir, thank you for putting a smile on my face to replace the frown I've had all day long :D


Ravi apologies if I ruined your day. My intention is to provoke thought.

Ramana Sir indeed.p

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ramana » 08 Jul 2020 04:54

SuryaG, About the June 17 or so I did say PLA got thwarted on the night of June 15/16.

And this would be ranked as Asal Uttar.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Prem » 08 Jul 2020 05:00

We need to keep our self fixed on our aim like Arjun. Now we have measured the lizard , a way more realistic plan can now be worked out to punish the pappis by getting GB back .While Chini trying to gobble up half of the finger 4 at Pangong, we cut their chicken neck in GB.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ramana » 08 Jul 2020 05:04

Prem, What if Pakis give up G-B? Or forced to?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby SidSoma » 08 Jul 2020 06:19

LakshmanPST wrote:I have a theory for the events that have been happening--->
The retaliation may come tomorrow or in a couple of months or next year, no one knows... We need to be ready and ever-vigilant...


I think there is another dimension to this.

We have shown a comprehensive weaponised diplomatic power. And we have weaponised our user base and trade. The war on these fronts are not over

Chinese need to be proscuted for

1. Spreading disease and denying it
2. Flouting IP and reverse engineering
3. immoral trade practices
4. Loan shark behaviour
5. Intimidation using force
6. Salami slicing
7. Arbitrary claims of teritories.

We need to lead the charge to increase the pressure we have already put on them. Just because they de-esculated and got the hell out of our territory does not mean that we cut them a slack in other domains. The punishment should increase in severity and should be scaled up to all its supporters. I thnk we have china on the mat...... its time to bury them.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Dumal » 08 Jul 2020 06:46


The CCP amby in UK just gave it a warning:
https://twitter.com/AmbLiuXiaoMing/status/1280572886319857666
@AmbLiuXiaoMing
A: Some UK politicians regard China as a threat. The truth is China wants to be UK’s friend and partner. But if you treat China as a hostile country, you would have to bear the consequences. To quote Zbigniew Brzezinski: If we treat China like an enemy, they will become an enemy.


India had enough of treating China like not an enemy and finally proved the corollary: if China behaves like an enemy, treat them like one.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby k prasad » 08 Jul 2020 06:59

Image

How about we play the same game as the Chinese and start claiming areas to the historical boundaries claimed by the Dogra kingdom?

P.S... How do I resize the image?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby SSridhar » 08 Jul 2020 07:39

LakshmanPST & suryag, there is never a single objective with the Chinese. They roll in multiple ones carefully into their move and try to achieve a few, like two steps forward, one step back. Of course, the priorities of different objectives are different and that is opaque to us. But, we should consider all of the following:

  1. To ‘Teach India a lesson’ as in 1962 [or in Vietnam] for its omissions & commissions so far
  2. To put India ‘in its place’, a feeling that has been growing in China especially after c. 2008
  3. Grab as much real-estate as possible during this Wuhan Corona virus time
  4. Provide more buffer to the G219 Highway
  5. Settle the border dispute by ‘force/deception’ to achieve its larger timeline goals [ c. 2035 & 2050 ]
  6. Protect Gilgit-Baltistan – the Critical chokepoint for CPEC
  7. To influence India’s strategic / tactical decisions (Quad, WHO)
  8. Deflect attention from within to outside, especially India
  9. Raise national fervor amidst Corona, Trade War, 5G, Huawei/ZTE, Hong Kong, Economy
  10. Show to the rest of the world, especially the US & its allies, who the hegemon is
  11. One or multiple (more likely) of the above objectives

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Shanmukh » 08 Jul 2020 07:43

k prasad wrote:
How about we play the same game as the Chinese and start claiming areas to the historical boundaries claimed by the Dogra kingdom?

P.S... How do I resize the image?


Why are we limiting ourselves to the historical claims of the Dogra kingdom? We need to start claiming the boundaries of the Kanishkan and the Karkota empires. That includes large parts of today's Xinjiang [including Kashgar, Yarkand, and Khotan] and parts of Tibet. Anyway, since the Dalai Lama has himself said that India has more claim to Tibet than China, let us accept that https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 471666.cms and claim the entirety of Greater Tibet. Extravagant claims of the Chinese need to be countered by extravagant claims by us. India includes all of Greater Tibet and good chunks of Xinjiang. Also, while we are at it, the kingdom of Dali [current Yunnan and Guizhou provinces] was an Indian kingdom till overthrown by the Mongols in the 1200s. Let us claim Yunnan and Guizhou as well. Chinese are the occupiers.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby TKiran » 08 Jul 2020 08:09

I think, we got some respite right now, PLA is coming back, may be with an altered plan, place and time. As deception is their main strength, which was punctured first by Galwan ke Balwaan and subsequently by a series of satellite images leak, their calculation is not to go ahead with the plan. In fact, after June 15 Galwan incident, they still tried to push their plans of deception and militarily teach India a lesson, but OSINT made public has had every plan blunted by India.

They will rest, recoup, plan, and execute some militarily adventure at the time and place of their choice.

But quick retaliatory steps such as apps banning, atmanirbhar, US, Israel, France, Germany Japan etc trying to help India with ammunition and other shortfalls has really surprised Hans. Especially, their piskology is known to even common Ram, Raheem and John on the street must have jolted them like never before, decades of propaganda through Chindu, fourth estate etc had no effect on concealing their true intentions. ToI talking about "Middle Kingdom" and explaining Lizard's piskology is surprising. It took a generation to understand the piskology of Pakistan to general public even with 1965, 1971, 1999, Nov26, it was very hard to educate the public about piskology of Pakistan, but with China, it was so easy.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ramana » 08 Jul 2020 08:11

You have to start somewhere, but India is not an expansionist power.
Making extravagant claims will cause extravagant losses.

It's another matter that once Gilgit-Baltistan is taken back it could trigger Tibet and Xinjiang Autonomous Regions to seek self-determination or join greater India.

Vidhi karmanusram.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby LakshmanPST » 08 Jul 2020 08:18

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby LakshmanPST » 08 Jul 2020 08:26

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby LakshmanPST » 08 Jul 2020 08:45

suryag wrote: Lakshman Sir the retaliation by our troops no doubt put fear of Mao in them however, a country that is known to use their soldiers as cannon fodder wouldnt care if they lost 40 or 100 bodies. If it is just force projection they could have done that in the eastern theater with far lower costs given their logistic lines are better there which begs the question why Aksai Hind sector ?


Why Ladakh and why not Arunachal Pradesh...?
1) In ArP, we have much better logistics compared to Ladakh... Brahmaputra valley is barely 100km as the crow flies... It is more easier for us to replenish the troops in ArP than in Ladakh where supplies have to come all the way from Punjab/UP plains...
2) Personally, I do not believe that we were planning to invade GB or POK for China to thwart it... Yes, we did make some moves but doubt we currently have a strategic plan under implementation to actually retake the area... However, we removed Article 370, split Ladakh from J&K and brought it under direct Central Govt. control... This is a more internationally visible reason for China to show us as aggressors...
3) Salami slicing is more easier and visible in Ladakh than in ArP and there is precedence here...
4) ArP is closer to Lhasa, the capital of Tibet... Any major escalation here can put Chinese hold on Tibet in danger...

Edit:-
Chinese would have got a hundred reasons, but one thing is true---> June 15 incident turned all their original plans upside down...
India signaling that it is ready for a full-scale war (for which they were not prepared) would have made them move back temporarily before consolidating and re-planning...
Last edited by LakshmanPST on 08 Jul 2020 08:46, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Shanmukh » 08 Jul 2020 08:46

ramana wrote:You have to start somewhere, but India is not an expansionist power.
Making extravagant claims will cause extravagant losses.

It's another matter that once Gilgit-Baltistan is taken back it could trigger Tibet and Xinjiang Autonomous Regions to seek self-determination or join greater India.

Vidhi karmanusram.


Agreed, Ramana-garu. As a first step, can we scrap the `one China' policy? This is a folly that we don't need to endorse. And can we tell the Dalai Lama that we will honour his choice of succession? This will give us the flexibility to retain the Tibet issue, without committing ourselves to any particular course of action.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Philip » 08 Jul 2020 09:08

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Last edited by Philip on 08 Jul 2020 09:29, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby V_Raman » 08 Jul 2020 09:15

Biggest shock for them will be our ability to use the trade deficit to hit them swiftly where it hurts - will take some time for them to recover. They have literally caught the tiger by its tail...

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby A Nandy » 08 Jul 2020 09:27

You have to start somewhere, but India is not an expansionist power.
Making extravagant claims will cause extravagant losses.


We are not expansionist until we are expanded upon. Then we must expand quickly :D

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Philip » 08 Jul 2020 09:29

Media reports.Pull back is only to create a buffer zone to prevent further clashes ,a " mutual temporary arrangement".
For one month no patrolling by both sides.Buffer zones et friction points.This is only phase 1.Sats and drones will monitor the same.

Meanwhile, there is " no indication of pullback of ( Chinko) troops along the LAC,neither any reduction in the 30% to 40% additional ideployment of fighters and bombers at Hotan and Kashgar air bases in Xinjiang", a sr. Indian military officer said.TOI xcpts.

" The overall threat remains" .India has mirrored PLA deployments,with induction of 30,000 troops and heavy weaponry all along the LAC iin eastern Ladakh.Similarly,SU-30 MKI and MIG-29 fighters,Apache attack and Chinook heavy-lift helicopters are continuing round-the-clock operations after being inducted into forward air bases. The troops will remain forward deployed till PLA troops remain there.Our brigades ( each has over 3000 troops) are deployed from DBO in the north to Demchok in the south. Logistics to enable them to staty until Sept.- Oct. underway.

From the reports it is v.clear the Chinks do not intend to leave but are steadily building up their force levels in the hope that India blinks first. Sorry to use that hackneyed phrase but " winter is coming!"

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Philip » 08 Jul 2020 09:47

A warning from the " Chindu" which appears to have returned to the right track post- Galwan.
We must " keep our eye on the nuclear ball",given China's expanding nuclear arsenal says Harish Pant and Kartik Bommakanti of the ORF.
China's avowed determination to possess at least 1000 N-weapons to match US and Russian stockpiles. In Xinjiang,it has deployed road mobile DF-26 IRBMs of 4000km range which can be tipped with both conventional or nuclear warheads. Their advice for our srat. forces to be on a " heightened state of alert" to "ward off Chinese nuclear threats and brinkmanship as well as geared up to support our conventional forces too. India should seriously assess it current nuclear doctrine and redouble efforts to get a robust triadic capability for deterrence." These aspects require further detailed discussion in the appropriate nuclear thread.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby YashG » 08 Jul 2020 10:18

I'll take a realpolitik/cynical view of things here. While we jingoes think in nationalistic terms - its a very idealistic position. Politics is different & dirty, up there.

Political leaders have their jobs to keep. For Xi, as for Modi- whatever outcome lets them keep their positions is acceptable and doesnt upsets their internal audience. A 800m here or there doesn't matter - as long as they both have a narrative that lets them keep their job. Xi came after India cz he assumed (didnt play out well, Modi is no pushover - He doesn't forget too, he will make Xi pay for it probably...I hope) the aggression will help him keep his job safe. Whatever has been agreed even now, is probably something that will allow both leaders keep their jobs. Both control their national media - Xi fully, Modi partially and will play to their domestic audiences.

But the best outcome - GoI will now accelerate more 'Make in India' defence programs. I'm okay to lose 800 Metres if it - Gets 150+ LCAs, 500+ Astras, 200 LCHs, Desi Artillery and so on. OFB reforms, more emphasis on theatre commands, strengthening of CDS etc.
$50 billion worth of Indian armaments is worth more than 800meters of useless land.

This is a watershed event. It will change more long term than anything short-term.

Lets just wait for chapter 3 ( 1.Doklam Ind 1- Chn -0, 2. Laddakh - Ind 0 - Chn 0)

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Deans » 08 Jul 2020 10:20

ramana wrote:Deasn, The following points to be understood after Galwan.
- India is ready to go head to head or toe to toe with China..
- India is ready to take on TSP and its jihadis in Kashmir while taking on China.
- India imposed restrictions on China to reduce the trade surplus by $40 B from $60 B.
- India used the aftermath of confrontation to clear up long pending arms procurements.
- India mostly cleaned out the 0.5 front in the war. Made it 0.10.
- India confronted the dreaded 2 front war and showed its just 1 front war with many theaters.
-The biggest take away is CDS system worked. This is first crisis after CDS was appointed.


Ramana ji, I largely agree, though I'm not sure to what extent the CDS contributed.
I think the biggest blow to the 2.5 war theory, is that the 0.5 war in the Kashmir valley did not materialise. The Chinese must have made the
assumption (advised by Pak who had to implement it) that the valley will explode in the first summer after 370. Our own Omar and Mehbooba
spoke of rivers of blood etc. The reality was the last 12 months have been the quietest in the valley and June had the largest no of militants killed
in a decade, with no loss to us. I think it has reached a point where both Pak army and separatists have lost confidence in the insurgency.

Pakistan (as perceived by China) has not lifted a finger to help - notwithstanding the talk of 20,000 men moving to GB etc.
The bigger problem for the Pakistan army is that China, after a large mobilisation, seems to be calling it off, after achieving nothing and losing face, after losing a handful of men in a single skirmish. The Pak army accepts those kind of casualties in LOC firing and it would surprise them that China cannot - which means China expects to outsource the real fighting to Pak.
It makes a future 2 front war less likely because of a trust deficit between Pak and China and different objectives.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby YashG » 08 Jul 2020 10:30

Deans wrote:Pakistan (as perceived by China) has not lifted a finger to help - notwithstanding the talk of 20,000 men moving to GB etc.
The bigger problem for the Pakistan army is that China, after a large mobilisation, seems to be calling it off, after achieving nothing and losing face, after losing a handful of men in a single skirmish. The Pak army accepts those kind of casualties in LOC firing and it would surprise them that China cannot - which means China expects to outsource the real fighting to Pak.
It makes a future 2 front war less likely because of a trust deficit between Pak and China and different objectives.


Even Pakistan doesnt trust the Chinese. They are just friends for benefits.
Pakistani's were praying that China delivers a loss of H&D to India/Especially Modi. Pakistani Army all the more stayed out - so as to give no chance to Modi to save face by punishing paks.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Dileep » 08 Jul 2020 11:20

To mimic certain good doctor, I will bet my left testimonial that the chinis will send in patrols in all the areas. I hope we will have the Herons making trips to take pics.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 08 Jul 2020 11:47

KL Dubey wrote:
Mukesh.Kumar wrote:
Thank you sir for putting in a few lines what took me three long posts to convey.

It's not that I am saying that liberation of Tibet or GB will be impossible. A $10 trillion economy can make many things,which seem fanciful today, come within our grasp. As long as there is realism and planning. But for the moment let's keep aside these fanciful notions.

And yes our objective should be to cause them real hurt with final goal being reclaiming these lands. For example can you imagine what a USD 1 bil p.a. investment in fifth column activities in POK/ GB can do? If GoI actually ran the numbers then the conviction for doing this would be much stronger.


Please try to understand. The Chinese deployment is not some "far-sighted plan" hatched after Doklam, on the contrary it is an attempt to delay India's plans to move into POK and GB. Our intention has been made very clear by several moves starting from re-organization of JK and Ladakh onwards.

Conflating Tibet and GB is to create a straw man. There is no doubt that even southern Tibet cannot be liberated without an all-out war, nobody is planning on doing that. However GB and POK are eminently doable. The Chinese are trying to put a spanner in the works and are desperate to save their decades-long investment in Pak.

I would say we should now:

1) Ramp up our aggressive deployment posture on these areas, now that we know the extent of Chinese worry on this.

2) Formally bundle China+Pak as one adversary. Going after Pak is going after China, and vice versa. Forget "2-front" doctrine...its a single front across which we face a motley crowd of barbarians: Pak brown-pants, PLA gooks, jihadis, "irregulars" etc etc.

3) Therefore, open all options: IOR including Arabian sea harassment, Pak airspace disruptions, Baloch insurgency ramp-up, and continued economic warfare against China, political and diplomatic coordination with everyone willing to help.


@KLDubey-ji, it isn't that easy. Giving Pak a shock, yes but terrain is against us in GB. GB without rest of POK is going to be difficult as I showed. Even if we win the ground maintaining and keeping it with us will be hard. Good to speak of, warns the heart but I would be happier if we had a concrete plan. I don't see us having the logistic logistic withal for this at the moment.

What's your proposed solution?


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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 08 Jul 2020 11:51

https://stratnewsglobal.com/lac-lessons ... kh-re-run/
LAC Lessons: Stay Vigilant, Watch PLA Moves And Be Ready For Ladakh Re-run
The process of disengagement along different friction points on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) is proceeding according to the plan agreed at the June 30 meeting of the Corps Commanders in Chushul, reports from Ladakh indicate even as the Indian security establishment has concluded that the mobilisation of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) had been sanctioned from the very top of the Chinese hierarchy and two, India , despite the beginning of the disengagement process, will have to watch the behaviour of the PLA very carefully. “We will have to be on our guard, verify the actions repeatedly and be prepared for a similar or even bigger episode in the next six months to one year time frame,” a national security official candidly admitted.
Bhell ... if that has been noted then we are in good hands.
All key elements of the national security apparatus are now involved in an exercise to arrive at a broad conclusion on the motives and objectives behind the unprecedented Chinese mobilisation so close to the LAC in Ladakh. The timing of the Chinese military moves, the behaviour of the PLA commanders and troops and the likely worst-case scenarios in coming months are also up for discussion among serving military and intelligence professionals across different agencies. The aggression at the friction points shown by the PLA—and matched in more than equal measure by India’s ground troops as evident in the clash at Galwan—is being scrutinised closely.
This is a good sign ... much better than hope based strategy and wishful thinking.
What will bear watching however is the trajectory that India-China relations will take after the LAC crisis is defused—even if temporarily. For one, the Indian establishment is in no doubt that China is now India’s primary and most difficult challenge and managing the relationship without succumbing to China’s intimidatory tactics while simultaneously taking steps to strengthen the economy, the military and all other coercive instruments of state will be the main task for the decision-makers.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 08 Jul 2020 12:00

Cain Marko wrote:
Mukesh.Kumar wrote:

Mukeshji, thank you for the detailed posts and your perspective. I will try to address the main points therein:

My posts regarding India's GB options had three main objectives:
1. Take over the regions if possible, if not
2. Take over key nodes if possible, if not
3. Ensure that TSP-Chicom access to said points becomes untenable

For now, let us focus on #2, which is where most of your writing would find context. .......

I'd say a number of about 3 x this size should do the trick. After that the idea is to hold and secure the airbridge.........

......


Cain- ji, my contention is based on holding the ground. This is not Uri surgical strike. But practically holding ground. I assumed things very favorably. Assuming that we eliminate half of Pak forces we would still have 12500 odd personnel to subdue who will have a chance to regroup and play spoil sport. In mountains you need 12 times the force. Normal circumstances you need 3 times. I just assumed 2.4 X @ 30K Indian troops. Can't be more optimistic. Once big thing you forget about Tangail air drop were the objectives and the fact that the Pakistanis were operating in hostile situation. May not be so easily compared.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 08 Jul 2020 12:07

samirdiw wrote:
Mukesh.Kumar wrote:It's not that I am saying that liberation of Tibet or GB will be impossible. A $10 trillion economy can make many things,which seem fanciful today, come within our grasp.


Mukesh, thanks very much for the wonderful analysis. Whether that $150 Billion is on the lower side or higher is not the point. The more important thing is an attempt at an objective analysis. I have tried to do a similar analysis to stalemate the Chinese but it doesn't take into account the troop cost and probably very amateurish.

Request you to kindly create similar analysis for military action for taking over half of historical Tibet. Reason: It will be the only long term acceptable solution for both sides without threats to its mainland assuming India also takes it security as seriously as China.


Samirdiwji, love your 'josh'. Why don't you give it a try. Never tried Tibet because even I was too conditioned to accept that Tibet was too far away. A fresh set of eyes is always good. You cab share results here and there are good seniors like RohitVats and others who can help you refine.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 08 Jul 2020 12:12

williams wrote:
Mukesh.Kumar wrote:
Sir, it's not possible for Pakistan to take away Ladakh through a land grab. Salami slicing/ "aman ka tamasha" accompanied by our naivette, yes.

I am not clear about what you mean buy the last two sentences. Mind elaborating a little?


I am saying if the Chinese opt for a shooting war, the terrain in Ladakh and J&K does not allow a 2 front offensive from Pakis and the Chinese at the same time. Pakis can do something only further south through the IB. That means we might have some troops tied up in the west to defend and focus on the Chinese side for offensive operations. So this threat of 2 front war is not as big as it seems after reading your post and looking at the maps.


Williams ji in contrast I would say it's a very serious threat. I don't think we will lose territory but the damage to national psyche and the toppling of a nationalist government (aided by lifafa journalism about reckless adventurism) is the biggest threat.

Could you imagine the pressure that would have been brought on current dispensation with a loss of face in Ladakh?

The good thing is that we seem to be getting better at converting these challenges into victories as days go by.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Roop » 08 Jul 2020 12:13

Ramana and others, I would be interested in what you think of this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ds4sQ4npYDY

This is a YT link to a Paki TV show discussing these events (India-China clash in Ladakh). The fellow talking is Dr. Shahid Masood (SM), who I think is well-known to us BRFites. The thing is, unlike what Pakis usually do when discussing India (dismiss us with contempt and say China will kick our azzes and laugh about it) this guy sounds seriously panicked about what India is capable of doing to China in this theater of operations if war breaks out. His voice is screaming and hysterical in fear. And where does his sense of panic stem from, you ask? Well, he keeps referring to an analysis/assessment from Harvard University, written just a couple of months ago, about the relative strengths and weaknesses of the Indian and Chinese orbats in theater.

I'm not exaggerating, SM's conclusion from this Harvard report is that India will absolutely destroy PLA and PLAAF in Ladakh if war breaks out. The panic in his voice was quite delicious and amusing to me at first, but then I thought: What the hell!! Where is this guy getting all this? What is this mysterious Harvard report?

So here I am putting this matter under the scrutiny of the BRF brain trust. Is there anything to what SM says? Anything at all?

Everyone: Serious comments only, please. No dismissive one-liners, rhetorical questions, dhoti-shivering or chest-thumping triumphalism.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 08 Jul 2020 12:20

ks_sachin wrote:
Mukesh.Kumar wrote:
Slightly OT and longish post (Part II) Alert ON.

Ok, now that we have established the conditions under which an airborne assault on GB is likely to be the best way to take back the region short of going through the whole gamut of taking over all of POK, a much more humongous exercise, let’s see what we are up against.
Pak’s ORBAT (and here I will include paramilitary and local police also given their access to arms and potential of creating nuisance in the first few critical hours), comprises of Northern Areas Command of five independent brigades (~15000), Gilgit Baltistan Scouts ~3000, and Gilgit Baltistan Police ~5000. Say, an approximate total of 25,000 troops including auxiliaries and PAF assets at airfields.

A slug fight to defeat these troops is not in our best interest. Our assault needs to shock, decapitate command structures and bewilder the enemy into surrendering. Going out on a limb, I would hypothesize a missile barrage and IAF bombing to take out command centers, communications and eliminate at least 50% of the enemy (mostly the army). In such a context, hypothesizing further an airborne assault by 30,000 troops dropped into GB within a couple of hours (at least taking over airfields and road nodes) focusing on Skardu, Gilgit, Sost, Gajkuch, Danyor, Chilas, Astore. Later troops can spread out to take over rural areas (thankfully, with sparse population, it may be possible to focus on rural areas later). Crucial success factor will be intelligence and having locals friendly to Indian interests (particularly among tribals).

Ok, now that we have defined the magnitude of the problem, let’s look into one aspect to explore further. We calculated 30,000 troops to be airdropped, airlifted to GB. That using Boeing C17’s or C130J’s represent 300 or 500 sorties respectively. Now, I would envision the airborne corps something like the Russian 7th Guards Mountain Air Assault Division, operating in principle like Mechanized infantry who are transported by air (refer herefor why I envision this)

Once we add in equipment, the number of sorties easily doubles to 600 (this is an approximation but I used similar from the Center 2019 Russian exercise numbers to come up with ballpark numbers). So, if we are operating only C-17’s, and assuming that on the first day each aircraft puts in three sorties, you would still need 200 odd aircraft dedicated to this task. This is assuming 100% serviceability, no losses. Just the air transport component would cost USD 44 bn (USD 55 bn for C130J’s). And this is much more than current capability (for comparison we recently carried out ourbiggest airborne exercise for 500 SF personnel) . Where's the planning for this?

Throwing in all other costs, liberation of GB, this way would cost us at least USD 150 bn? I am sure this analysis, in some form or the other would have been presented/ gamed by military and political leadership. And till the time we come out with answers of how this can be done, where a USD 10 billion p.a. asset has to be acquired by spending USD 150 billion are answered, all our talk of freeing GB, much less Tibet, remains just that. Which political leadership or military leadership will plan this? Or commit money and time?

Slightly OT and longish post (Part II) Alert OFF.


Lovely.
Also might I add that we actually do not have 30,000 airborne troops.

The Para has been split into Para (SF) and Para and there are now only 4 vanilla Para bns which would be about 3600 troops. Yes we can add the para SF to the mix but in a scenario like you describe their utilisation to hold territory will be a sub-optimal use of that resource.



Abdolutely. We would need to create a separate Airborne Corps trained to operate in the mountains with their dedicated air complement. Engineering, AD and Artillery arms integrated. Even if we are talking of a tooth ty o tail of 1:1 that means a dedicated 60K personnel in this corps. It's a big thing and will need years of preparation and training etc.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 08 Jul 2020 12:21

Deans wrote:
williams wrote:
I am saying if the Chinese opt for a shooting war, the terrain in Ladakh and J&K does not allow a 2 front offensive from Pakis and the Chinese at the same time. Pakis can do something only further south through the IB. That means we might have some troops tied up in the west to defend and focus on the Chinese side for offensive operations. So this threat of 2 front war is not as big as it seems after reading your post and looking at the maps.


Some points about a two front war - I'll focus mostly on the army part.
There are very few formations that have the option of fighting either on the Pak, or Chinese front. We can take on Pak without any of the Chinese tasked divisions moving out and vice versa.

We have the equivalent of 43 divisions (taking 3 independent brigades to be 1 division). China can deploy at best 13-14 divisions (which us half
their army) while Pakistan can deploy 30, assuming none are deployed for counter insurgency.
There are very few Indian formations that have the option of being deployed either against Pak or China. These include part of IX corps in Yol
6th mountain div in Bareilly and perhaps a division from III corps in the North east.

We have 65 tank regiments, of which I would assume upto 9 would be based in eastern Ladakh/ Sikkim. Our 56 regiments deployed against Pak
have 45 tanks each, against the 50 Pak regiments with 42 tanks each. That gives us a small numerical superiority, which would not be enough
for a decisive breakthrough in any sector in the West (especially keeping in mind the need for reserves against the Chinese). The PLA in theory has numerical superiority in tanks but very limited scope for deployment due to the terrain - which favors the defender. At best they can hope to wear out our armour in a long war of attrition - that is the opposite of the battle Pak needs to fight, which is short war, where they can claim they won because they did not visibly lose and before their economy collapses.

Since our doctrine is not to claim enemy territory in a war (where we occupy territory like in POK/ Aksai Chin, the terrain makes it extremely difficult), our existing strength and deployment is adequate to defend our country in a 2 front war (while inflicting heavier casualties on the enemy). We win by not losing (which would also be Pakistan's objective in a war against India without Chinese support).


Seen later. But Deans ji answers the question much better. Thank you sir.


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