India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

[Philip]

According to a report in the Hindu,the PRC has crossed its own 1960 claims based upon border talks details, at Pangong Tso and Galwan.Details of the then talks are given.Typical map line shifting by the PRC. Nepal had better watch out,the PRC will one day ingvitably stab it too in the back and lay claim to all of it claiming one day that it was earlier " Central Tibet"!

[chetak]

This is fake news at its best. If forces were moved from across Tibet and Xinjiang to the LAC, China would face internal revolt. 1400 Kms and movement of men, eqpt, stores and stocks is a logistics nightmare. Takes weeks. Only to convince those who have no clue or understanding

who but gaddar ajai shukla would put out such a "story" and trust that rag Business Standard to carry this fake news.




Here’s a story ⁦@globaltimesnews ⁩ would be proud to have written. Note the header: “China has 200,000 troops at LAC...”. The story concedes these troops are > 1,400 km away from Ladakh NOT at #LAC.
The usual BS from ⁦@bsindia⁩. Will delight the Chinese.

[pankajs]

^^
Bascially he has counted all troops that are located around Tibet. Better would have been just counted all troops in China as battle ready for LAC.

Btw, Chindu has proved very unreliable to the extent of trying to manufacture propaganda as was clear during the Rafale saga.

[SSridhar]

This is fake news at its best. Note the header: “China has 200,000 troops at LAC...”. The story concedes these troops are > 1,400 km away from Ladakh NOT at #LAC.
The usual BS from ⁦@bsindia⁩. Will delight the Chinese.

I have already written to them rebutting that. Let's see if they publish.

[arshyam]

Here’s a story ⁦@globaltimesnews ⁩ would be proud to have written. Note the header: “China has 200,000 troops at LAC...”. The story concedes these troops are > 1,400 km away from Ladakh NOT at #LAC.
The usual BS from ⁦@bsindia⁩. Will delight the Chinese.

Lol, by this token, we should include all troops in peactime locations from all commands, including Southern, and say they are available to deal with China. Maybe throw in some CPMF units as well, while at it. Talk about "spinning" up some news.

[pankajs]

https://twitter.com/nitingokhale/status ... 1426208768

Nitin A. Gokhale @nitingokhale

Last week IN's Eastern Naval Fleet had conducted manouvres off the Andaman Nicobar Islands in the Bay of Bengal. The IAF has also moved half a squadron of Jaguars to Carnic (Car Nicobar island) in the past fortnight in what is seen as a signalling to the Chinese

Hmm ..

[SRajesh]

^^^
A noob pooch from a 'Non-Service Arm-Chair strategist' :
1. Why couldn't we have multiple bases in IOC region, if we could develop Carnic base similar one in friendly nation viz Seychelles, Mauritius
2.Would they or wouldn't they more cost effective than a IAC-3 and 4 etc
3.A combined naval and air base for Sub fleet as well as Maritime Survaillance/ELINT
4.Reciprocal agreement with Unkil for D-G for ??Carnic
A before anyone 'shoots' me this just a pooch and not an answer to Chinese string of pearls.

[schinnas]

Between Andaman & Nicobar islands and Lakshadweep and India unique geography butting into IOR, we don't need to be desperate for additional bases. If at all needed, we can aim plan for some logistics and docking facilities in Mauritius and Seychelles and Maldives.

But we have lot more to do to just develop A&N and Lakshadweep to desired levels.

[Aditya_V]

https://twitter.com/nitingokhale/status ... 1426208768

Nitin A. Gokhale @nitingokhale

Last week IN's Eastern Naval Fleet had conducted manouvres off the Andaman Nicobar Islands in the Bay of Bengal. The IAF has also moved half a squadron of Jaguars to Carnic (Car Nicobar island) in the past fortnight in what is seen as a signalling to the Chinese

Hmm ..

These are half a squadron of Jaguar IM with harpoon II's, if I am right thier British Radar's have been replaced with EL 2032's.

[SSridhar]

IN to conduct exercise with USS Nimitz near Malacca - ToI

[pankajs]

^^^
A noob pooch from a 'Non-Service Arm-Chair strategist' :
1. Why couldn't we have multiple bases in IOC region, if we could develop Carnic base similar one in friendly nation viz Seychelles, Mauritius
2.Would they or wouldn't they more cost effective than a IAC-3 and 4 etc
3.A combined naval and air base for Sub fleet as well as Maritime Survaillance/ELINT
4.Reciprocal agreement with Unkil for D-G for ??Carnic
A before anyone 'shoots' me this just a pooch and not an answer to Chinese string of pearls.

1. Other countries have to agree to have your base. Most small countries are wary of making a move one way or the other plus there is the question of Chinese buying out the elites to swing things in its favor. We had a problem in Seychelles for some facility that had been proposed IIRC.

We do seem to have helped some of our oceanic neighbors setting up their own surveillance system IIRC. We do expect some intelligence as part of such a deal.

Also, there are willing partners nearer the scene of action i.e. Australia with whom much could be done around the Sunda and Lombak straits.

2. Cost/mobility/Sovereignty/etc matrix would be interesting to understand but I have no idea.

3. We have some arraignments with some of our oceanic neighbors and we have access to US intelligence on the IOR after the COMCASA deal. Plus we are also co-operating with the French. Additional arraignments with the Australians and the Indonesians would be very desirable in the IOR region.

4. Duqm to Andaman to CoCo Island to Reunion island form a square that touches all 4 corners of the IOR region and works fine for us to resupply our deployment in the IOR region.

Note: The Car Nicobar AFB sits between the 6 degree and 10 degree channel, the two most used channels of approach to the Malacca strait.

[rsangram]

To all hawks, I recommend patience. And prudence. Let us not Dhoti Shiver, nor rush headlong, full throttle into a war, without looking left of right. Best to be Chankian.

While it is true that we can teach China a lesson now, we should still wait until our economy is better, and then take them on.

Economy is what it is all about, and once we hit the 5 Trillion Economy mark, the gap with China will start narrowing very quickly. The one child policy has ensured that.

But the message for the Chinese should be very clear. Make no mistake. Any further belligerence on their part, will be met with overwhelming force, and they would not know what hit them. We will be the ones deciding on the time and place.

[abhik]

IN to conduct exercise with USS Nimitz near Malacca - ToI

Apparently it will just be a "PASSEX" - my guess is it's on it way to the middle east to relieve USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) which has been stationed there for a record duration (more than half a year).

[SSridhar]

Apparently it will just be a "PASSEX"

Could be. But, the location & timing are important.

[chola]

To all hawks, I recommend patience. And prudence. Let us not Dhoti Shiver, nor rush headlong, full throttle into a war, without looking left of right. Best to be Chankian.

While it is true that we can teach China a lesson now, we should still wait until our economy is better, and then take them on.

Economy is what it is all about, and once we hit the 5 Trillion Economy mark, the gap with China will start narrowing very quickly. The one child policy has ensured that.

But the message for the Chinese should be very clear. Make no mistake. Any further belligerence on their part, will be met with overwhelming force, and they would not know what hit them. We will be the ones deciding on the time and place.

The truth is there was a historic opportunity in the time period between Doklam and the attack on 16 Bihar to engage in kinetics with mass preponderance of forces on our side. Every week that goes by that advantage shrinks as the chinis build up on the LAC.

Whatever we gain from the economy growing to $5T won't make up for the 250K to 21K (3 brigades) manpower advantage we had at the time of Doklam. And there is no guarantee the gap economically wouldn't have widen with them by the time we reach 5T and there is no guarantee the gap would shrink quickly or at all there after either.

The hawks might be right on timing.

[SBajwa]

[abhik]

Apparently it will just be a "PASSEX"

Could be. But, the location & timing are important.

I think their "messaging" is already done with the dual carrier deployment in SCS (this carrier has broken off from there). What would really throw the cat amongst the pigeons is if a bunch of Growlers and F-35 (ME based) landed in Gwalior for an exercise to improve "improve interoperability" etc. - of course that's in the realm of wet dreams.

[asinh]

Maybe a little ot but news x is running a programme on Pakis claiming Maharaja Hari Singh being an occupier so instrument of accession is nullified.. Pakines supreme.

[vimal]

To all hawks, I recommend patience. And prudence. Let us not Dhoti Shiver, nor rush headlong, full throttle into a war, without looking left of right. Best to be Chankian.

While it is true that we can teach China a lesson now, we should still wait until our economy is better, and then take them on.

Economy is what it is all about, and once we hit the 5 Trillion Economy mark, the gap with China will start narrowing very quickly. The one child policy has ensured that.

But the message for the Chinese should be very clear. Make no mistake. Any further belligerence on their part, will be met with overwhelming force, and they would not know what hit them. We will be the ones deciding on the time and place.

I dont think we or anyone can really time the market.
Chins have been belligerent since 1962 and we've not done anything so all this is just empty threats given our past record. A nation state is defined by its boundaries and not having it defined is the first step towards not having a state.

[samirdiw]

General Bakshi on the importance of creating our own action on the border and not just reacting. Any adversary will keep poking per him if the opponent is only reactionary like we have been.

[KLNMurthy]

So, the idea of Chinese transporting goods via KKH-CPEC to Gwadar is silly but OTOH them doing the same through Ladakh (after, what? fighting for it and occupying it?) and going down from there into the Indian road network into Kolkata, Paradip and Vizag harbors is an eminently sensible idea?

The route to Kolkata, Paradip, Vizag is not through Ladakh but Kunming, Myanmar and Bangladesh or even Arunachal, Assam or Sikkim and that connects to Yunan Province.

1. How exactly do you get this information that Chinese are planning to make a route from Yunan through Arunachal to Kolkata, Paradip and Vizag? Do

2. How exactly do you see them achieving this task? Will the millions of Indians and their army along the way just bow down and let them through?
As opposed to the road to Gwadar which is actually populated with millions of Pakis and their army which does, in fact, bow down and let them through?

[abhik]

Could be. But, the location & timing are important.

I think their "messaging" is already done with the dual carrier deployment in SCS (this carrier has broken off from there). What would really throw the cat amongst the pigeons is if a bunch of Growlers and F-35 (ME based) landed in Gwalior for an exercise to improve "improve interoperability" etc. - of course that's in the realm of wet dreams.

Well here you go...

The Nimitz Carrier Strike Group, consisting of flagship USS Nimitz (CVN 68), guided-missile cruiser USS Princeton (CG 59) and guided-missile destroyers USS Sterett (DDG 104) and USS Ralph Johnson (DDG 114), along with Indian Navy ships Rana, Sahyadri, Shivalik and Kamorta, steam in formation during a cooperative deployment in the Indian Ocean.

[abhik]

A little cryptic, but though I'll post it here anyway.
https://twitter.com/Vedmalik1/status/12 ... 9844079617

Ved Malik
@Vedmalik1
10 years after writing of this article, PLA activities have now made it obvious that China aims to deny Indian access to DBO, Depsang Plains & Karakoram Pass. This area needs greater surveillance, security with more freedom of action than permitted by China Study Gp currently.

[abhik]

Military Digest | Detailed Order of Battle: Chinese Forces in Eastern Ladakh
Have tried to highlight the composition of their divisions from this article (although some of these are probably for generic units and not specific to 4th and 6th divisions).

6th Highland Mechanised Infantry Division now occupies jumping-off points in the Chinese half of Depsang Plains. It consists of 7 Mechanised Infantry Regiment, 18 Mechanised Infantry Regiment and an armoured regiment.
...
Each mechanised infantry regiment/brigade has four mechanised battalions (up from the earlier three) and a tank battalion with 35 ZTZ-99A (Type 99) main battle tanks
...
An artillery battalion with eighteen 122mm PLZ-07B self-propelled tracked howitzers is in direct fire support.
...
The skies above the division’s battlespace are sought to be secured by the air defence cover provided by the integral Anti-Aircraft Artillery Regiment..
24 GZ-09 PGZ-07 twin 35mm self-propelled (tracked) anti-aircraft guns a
battalion of 18 HQ-17 short-range air defence systems (tracked)

An aviation regiment provides the division with an integral air attack, aerial reconnaissance, airborne anti-tank and heli-lift capacity...
6 x Harbin Z-9G
6 x Mi-17

Combat support assets are available from the Group Army (equivalent to an Indian corps) to boost the division’s firepower and battle-survivability. These could include an independent artillery brigade with two battalions of PCL-181 155m/52-calibre truck-mounted howitzers (36 tubes) and another two battalions of PHL-03 300mm 12-tube long-range multi-barrel rocket launchers (36 systems).

Aksu, Xinjiang-based 4th Highland Motorised Infantry Division comprises the 11 Motorised Infantry Regiment, 12 Motorised Infantry Regiment, a tank regiment, an artillery regiment, and anti-tank and anti-aircraft artillery battalions. This is the Chinese formation troops of XIV Corps are encountering in the Galwan River Valley, Hot Springs/Gogra and the Fingers Area. The division’s motorised infantry regiments are equipped with tracked Type 86 ICVs (reverse-engineered Soviet BMP-1 replicas) and WZ-551 6 x 6 APCs. In addition, there are eight relatively more modern VN-1 8 x 8 APCs armed with indigenous Red Arrow 10 ATGMs. The motorised infantry battalions follow the standard table of organisation with three companies, each of three platoons.

[Lisa]

TWITTER
@SauravJha1618

Siachenization of the LAC in Eastern Ladakh is a losing strategy. Basically, instead of getting the PLAGF to deploy, this approach will mean that it is rather India which ends up postured in adverse weather while the PLAGF lives in the comfort of rear barracks.

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/128 ... 28992?s=19
___________________________

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/128 ... 21888?s=19

It costs 4 times as much to sustain a soldier on the Tibetan plateau as compared to in the plains. So, despite the resources at its disposal, Beijing will not be very keen to maintain sizeable defensive deployments throughout the year. Right now, it doesn't have to even bother.

________________________

Salami Slicing cannot be a one way street. Only by doing the same ourselves do we impose a cost. Until then...........

[darshhan]

To be honest, if in the coming months(a year or two at the most) we are unable to initiate military action against china pak combine, then it would be better to disband the military itself. Better use the defence budget someplace else. Let us be done with the pretense of having a military which can never carry out an proactive offensive operation as a result of our cowardly politician-bureaucrat-general nexus. We want a military that fights and conquers enemy territory on a continuos and sustained basis.

As far as defence of the land is concerned, just arm 25% of adult dharmic male population of this country with kalashnikovs and RPGs and permit them to form their own militias. I can assure you that this being the case no opponent will be able to hold on to Indian territory even if he manages to launch an initial invasion. All this can be done for a far lower budget too. What is the budget of taliban by the way? And they have support of less than 15% afghan population. Even then they have created so much trouble for the americans.

Infact one of the biggest scams this country has seen is induction of multi billion dollar weapon systems and platforms only to have never seen the action. And this when we are surrounded by a target rich environment. For eg. Systems like mirage 2000 and sukhoi 30 mki will most likely be retired without seeing any significant war. Except kargil in m2k case which was anyways a limited war and again a reactive operation. So what did we induct them for? So that our flyboys can have fun. Other examples are T-90, brahmos, kilo class ssks which will be likely retired before seeing any war. Has the primary objective of our military now become to provide adventure sports and sight seeing facilities for our soldier recruits.

Anyways now the time has come for indian state to take a call and if that call is of the craven nature, then it will only deepen the gulf between the indian state which is anyways pathetic and the civilizationally nationalist population. It could even start the process of unravelling of democracy in Bharat. People will automatically come to conclusion that benevolent monarchy(the traditional bhartiya mode of governance) is better than democracy. After all it is the earlier which gave rise to conquerors and commanders like Samudragupta, Krishnadeva Raya, Shivaji and Bajirao unlike the fuddu wimp leaders we have had since 1947. LBS, PVNR and Namo till date are exceptions to some extent. But even they have lacked the complete ruthlessness of a conqueror. Probably due to drinking gandhi nehru koolaid.

And by the way right time to fight is now. 2 years down the line we might not have the same advantage. And at the minimum we should be targeting POK in west and Ngari-Kailash mansarovar- lhasa-nyangichi curve in Tibet in the next 5-10 years time frame.

Veer Bhogya Vasundhara

[Y I Patel]

...
my frnd climbed apsarasas complex as part of army mountaineering expedition ( when i am back in delhi will try to post pics which he had shared) ... he said from the top looking towards shaksagam pass is a sea of snow and is totally glaciated..vvv hard terrain... for any kind of movement... while trained soldiers can move thru but without any meaningful loads... the area north of indra col are anyway in pak/ chini hands but they have not tried any monkey tricks from that side till date. large number of troops are not required to defend but for a attacking force trying to force their way from north will require a substantial force/logistic train. The point is maps while important dont always convey the picture on ground..distance appearing short may virtually be impassable in reality ( all this info is based on discussing with someone who has been there) ..but i enjoy such discussions with maps etc. YIP thnx for posting

This is exactly what motivates me to share my thoughts on BRF - thank you for following up with your friend! I totally agree that there is only so much to be learnt by going over maps and internet accounts... hearing from someone who has actually been there makes all the difference. Hope you post the photos soon!

[BajKhedawal]

To all hawks, I recommend patience. And prudence. Let us not Dhoti Shiver, nor rush headlong, full throttle into a war, without looking left of right. Best to be Chankian.

While it is true that we can teach China a lesson now, we should still wait until our economy is better, and then take them on.

Economy is what it is all about, and once we hit the 5 Trillion Economy mark, the gap with China will start narrowing very quickly. The one child policy has ensured that.

But the message for the Chinese should be very clear. Make no mistake. Any further belligerence on their part, will be met with overwhelming force, and they would not know what hit them. We will be the ones deciding on the time and place.

Well, but we still need to settle account for china's this particular belligerence; and what better way to send a clear message than to answer this particular belligerence overwhelmingly here and now. This are the best possible global circumstances to show bully its place, and kickstart our manufacturing industries small and large.

[fanne]

well 123 for 20 does that settle the score?

[BajKhedawal]

Oh yes, by far it does! Its not about keeping score, its rather about knocking sense into bully to stop salami slicing once and for all - else its a Operation Parakram redux.

Edited once to convey that even 1 instead of 20 would be one too many, that's why we need to answer befittingly in the interest of Indian lives.

[Philip]

The Ch.Study Group should be disbanded with inddcent haste,it has proved worse that not being in existence,giving feku advice to the GOI that all is well with Beijing leading to this fiasco.It sold India down the river.The jokers responsible should be investigated,to see of they were quislings and if proven,charges brought against them. Embedding the military into the MEA to create a purposeful ,vigilant foreign policy is reqd.The CDS must be involved in such a task.News has arrived from SL that we are losing another round to thd PRC,the Colombo Port expansion development where a consortium of India,Japan,etc. is being elbowed out by the PRC thanks to their catamites,the R family,in power right now,who handed over to the PRC H' tota and the Port City Colombo projects on 99 years leases. Yet again the MEA has failed in SL,and is failing in almost every neighbouring state to PRC diplomacy.Can't the GOI see the immense damage that this ministry has caused for the nation?

Border Security is now all around us,not just with Pak and the PRC!

[pandyan]

India In Motion - Really good travelogues of Himalayas and the border areas. gives a sense of the terrain and the people of the land

[Gyan]

Unfortunately, I must agree with Philip but I am disappointed with Military leadership also.

We must distinguish Military leadership & vision from personal bravery.

Indian Generals belong to tradition of Extraordinary bravery. If required then without exception they can lead men from front into hail of fire. Any of them will sacrifice his life for the nation.

But thats not enough and more is expected from a General or rather Command Staff. He is expected to Win. That's the difference between Shivaji Maharaj & Ranjit Singh Maharaja vs. Prithvi Raj Chauhan & Mirja Raje Man Singh.

I have a feeling that lot of institutions in India dealing with China & MNCs are subverted. And their new God is "Globalization" rather than Maatribhumi.

Globalization has ceased to be for benefit of India but an end in itself.

Its impossible to believe that Indian General Staff was not aware of Chinese Mobilization from January onwards, even though they may have not known the intentions. So what was their fail safe? Nothing?

Inability to pre-empt and now stuck in statuesque inactivity without a planned escalation ladder seems mighty odd. Calls into question rationale of existence of lot of institutions feeding on our taxes for 50 years.

As for Civilian side, which has stuck to their Globalization chant, I really wonder whether these idiots are Indians anymore (?)

[pankajs]

^^
Yes lets start investigating with Doval and by extension Modi because Doval has the full confidence of Modi.

As far as the current standoff with China is concerned ...

1. The 16 Bihar death has been avenged by the unit(s) on the very same night. That episode is over.
2. The present Chinese have gone back wherever they had crossed the LAC.
3. The Chinese still are inside the buffer/grey zone. They need to be evicted one way or another. It can be a negotiated withdrawal or a forceful eviction but it requires patience.
4. Then there is the matter of round the clock monitoring of LAC and its depth to prevent another such instance. Talks of more scouts, Drones and Satellite are in the air.
5. Finally, our posture on the LAC has to change to signal to the Chinese that it cannot be business as usual and every such stunt will come with a cost. Offensive force that was put on hold has to be revived/fast-tracked.

[manjgu]

YIP..just finished watching Gen DS Hooda with karan thapar...he also says no real threat to siachen from DBO side...

[Gyan]

A little cryptic, but though I'll post it here anyway.
https://twitter.com/Vedmalik1/status/12 ... 9844079617

Ved Malik
@Vedmalik1
10 years after writing of this article, PLA activities have now made it obvious that China aims to deny Indian access to DBO, Depsang Plains & Karakoram Pass. This area needs greater surveillance, security with more freedom of action than permitted by China Study Gp currently.

It would be interesting to Read Comments of Bhadra on this friendly forum


https://defenceforumindia.com/threads/i ... 3/page-134

[Gyan]

^^
Yes lets start investigating with Doval and by extension Modi because Doval has the full confidence of Modi.

As far as the current standoff with China is concerned ...

1. The 16 Bihar death has been avenged by the unit(s) on the very same night. That episode is over.
2. The present Chinese have gone back wherever they had crossed the LAC.
3. The Chinese still are inside the buffer/grey zone. They need to be evicted one way or another. It can be a negotiated withdrawal or a forceful eviction but it requires patience.
4. Then there is the matter of round the clock monitoring of LAC and its depth to prevent another such instance. Talks of more scouts, Drones and Satellite are in the air.
5. Finally, our posture on the LAC has to change to signal to the Chinese that it cannot be business as usual and every such stunt will come with a cost. Offensive force that was put on hold has to be revived/fast-tracked.

So Modi is responsible for everything, No one else has any duty, any responsibility or any Function?. So questioning anybody in Govt is questioning Modi? If tomorrow my Eggs & Milk does not come then, Modi stole the Cow?

[pankajs]

^^
Yes lets start investigating with Doval and by extension Modi because Doval has the full confidence of Modi.

As far as the current standoff with China is concerned ...

1. The 16 Bihar death has been avenged by the unit(s) on the very same night. That episode is over.
2. The present Chinese have gone back wherever they had crossed the LAC.
3. The Chinese still are inside the buffer/grey zone. They need to be evicted one way or another. It can be a negotiated withdrawal or a forceful eviction but it requires patience.
4. Then there is the matter of round the clock monitoring of LAC and its depth to prevent another such instance. Talks of more scouts, Drones and Satellite are in the air.
5. Finally, our posture on the LAC has to change to signal to the Chinese that it cannot be business as usual and every such stunt will come with a cost. Offensive force that was put on hold has to be revived/fast-tracked.

So Modi is responsible for everything, No one else has any duty, any responsibility or any Function?. So questioning anybody in Govt is questioning Modi? If tomorrow my Eggs & Milk does not come then, Modi stole the Cow?

YES ... CSG that advice's Modi is setup under his "very trusted" Doval. When one miss that bit one ends up going on a tangent.

Finally, CSG is just an advisory. It is up to Modi with the advice of CSG, Doval & Jaishankar that decides policy at the very top but especially wrt China. Therefore, the buck for any deficiency in our China policy must stop at Modi's door.

Btw, before you reply to this post it would make sense to read Phillips post followed by my post. Context is very important.

[Roop]

No offence intended, but I have some problems with your post. Among other things, you contradict yourself several times.

Here goes...

To all hawks, I recommend patience. And prudence. Let us not Dhoti Shiver, nor rush headlong, full throttle into a war, without looking left of right. Best to be Chankian.

First of all, you say we shouldn't dhoti-shiver, but then implicitly recommend a policy of exactly that -- dhoti-shivering. China has blatantly committed physical aggression on us and cost us almost a couple of dozen lives. Of course our guys fought back and inflicted massive damage on them, but that was all almost accidental, possibly a theoretical disobedience of orders on our troops' part. Other than what 16 Bihar and a couple of other units did on the night of June 15, we have done nothing concrete to China in the military sphere. "Let us be Chankian" is a meaningless statement in the absence of specific measures. How to "be Chankian"? Do what, exactly?

While it is true that we can teach China a lesson now, we should still wait until our economy is better, and then take them on.

Economy is what it is all about, and once we hit the 5 Trillion Economy mark, the gap with China will start narrowing very quickly. The one child policy has ensured that.

What you're saying, in effect, is that we can't afford to take any kinetic action against China now, regardless of their provocations/aggressions, because their economy is bigger than ours. But that is a very wrong-headed and negative policy. There is a fancy name for this policy -- "being Chankian" -- and a somewhat blunter name -- "dhoti-shivering". The fact is, we cannot afford not to do anything in response to what China has already done.

But the message for the Chinese should be very clear. Make no mistake. Any further belligerence on their part, will be met with overwhelming force, and they would not know what hit them. We will be the ones deciding on the time and place.

I see... and how do you plan to deliver this "message" to the Chinese in a way that they would take seriously? "Any further belligerence" like what? What, in your opinion, would constitute adequate "casus belli" for India? If China did nothing active, but simply refused to withdraw from the Fingers area, would that do it? If they built new mortar/gun emplacements on their side of the LAC (i.e. some place which both sides agree is the "Chinese side")? What if they sent unarmed drones (reconaissance platforms) to overfly the airstrip at DBO? Would that do it?

And regardless of what you (or me, or anyone else) decides is a level of sufficient provocation for us to exit Chankian mode and enter Action mode, what happens to your concern about the size of our economy? If we have to fight them in September or December of this year, what about the economy? We can either do as your first paragraph recommended and be patient, prudent and Chankian, or we can do as your latest para suggested and say "Economy be damned, we should meet them overwhelming force, so they don't know what hit them". Your recommendation can be one or the other, but not both.

And finally:

Let us not ... rush headlong, full throttle into a war, without looking left of right.

This is a comical, almost ridiculous, straw-man argument. Nobody here has said we should rush headlong into war without looking left or right. People on this forum (as well as retired officers of IA and IAF in variuos places on the web) have suggested serious courses of kinetic action we could take against China. You may agree with these suggestions or not, but they are not reckless rushing into war without looking left or right.

[k prasad]

...
my frnd climbed apsarasas complex as part of army mountaineering expedition ( when i am back in delhi will try to post pics which he had shared) ... he said from the top looking towards shaksagam pass is a sea of snow and is totally glaciated..vvv hard terrain... for any kind of movement... while trained soldiers can move thru but without any meaningful loads... the area north of indra col are anyway in pak/ chini hands but they have not tried any monkey tricks from that side till date. large number of troops are not required to defend but for a attacking force trying to force their way from north will require a substantial force/logistic train. The point is maps while important dont always convey the picture on ground..distance appearing short may virtually be impassable in reality ( all this info is based on discussing with someone who has been there) ..but i enjoy such discussions with maps etc. YIP thnx for posting

Wow. That's impressive. It's not an easy mountain, from everything I've read.

I don't see any traverse points or cols below 6000 m elevation along the Teram Shehr or Rimo glaciers into the Shaksgam valley, except for near Indira Col, and the connection between the upper Rimo and middle Rimo glaciers, but even those are at 5800+, and, as you point out, heavily glaciated. Then, even after passing through the cols, there's probably another 10-20+ km of trekking through the glacier just to get to the base of the valley.the easier approach from Shaksham into Ladakh seems to be going east and swinging south through the Karakoram pass (and more pertinently, vice versa).

YIP..just finished watching Gen DS Hooda with karan thapar...he also says no real threat to siachen from DBO side...

It wouldn't be easy, and I guess the threat is minimal, esp if any attackers need to fight through a strong Indian force near DBO and Depsang. Not to mention, our forces are the best and most prepared mountain force, by orders of magnitude.

That said, i don't know if we should be complacent, which surely the Indian Army isn't. The Pakistani Army wouldn't have expected our forces to capture Bana Top from them. But we did. They would not have expected our forces to trek through 100s of kilometers of snow, ice and glaciers, walking through Zoji La and Saser La all the way to Rimo and Siachen to control Siachen in 1984, when their own approach was far easier and shorter. But we did.

We cannot underestimate a determined opposition, especially on the Siachen complex. If we lose the heights, it'll be nearly impossible to regain them.

My concern is simple - it looks like it'd be a much easier approach to the Teram Shehr and Siachen glacier complex from the Shaksgam side, much like the approach to Siachen from the PoK side is easier. Which makes our continued patrolling and deployment along the Shaksgam ridgeline all the more important. Plus, the Chinese control of Shaksgam valley makes a coordinated two pronged attack by Pak and PLA a possibility - PakArmy from Siachen and PLA on the Rimo and Teram Shehr glaciers.

From the DBO and Depsang plains side, the Chinese won't be a direct threat to Siachen... that would involve a 20+ km incursion across Depsang to the headwaters of the Shyok, another 60 km trek across the Rimo and Teram Shehr glaciers just to get to Siachen. But, they could conceivably pose a threat to our positions on the middle Rimo glacier, and an alternate route down the Shyok through Panamik. Either way, it's easier to hold the position than to try to regain it.

Of course, with our control of the ridgelines, and expertise in mountain warfare, we can beat any such attacks with minimal numbers.