India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 18 Aug 2020 07:58

schinnas wrote:Objectives:
1. Send a strong message that our borders are sacrosanct, words of our leaders carry weight and put an end to the policy of salami slicing by Cheen.
2. Fix tactical shortcomings in LAC and also get back some of the earlier occupations / salami slicing.
2.1. Get more territory than we want, to give room in the negotiation table.
3. Avoid getting into a full blown war but be prepared if it's thrust on us in the course of things.

Saar - militarily, we need to be more specific - the above are mostly political. Even if we aim for these objectives, are we ready if #2 spills onto #3? What can we do to prevent it?

Ashokk · Post by **Ashokk** » 18 Aug 2020 08:11

‘Troops at LAC to stay till China withdraws’

NEW DELHI: India will continue to strongly press its demand for China to withdraw its troops and restore status quo ante along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh, though it remains prepared for the long haul in the high-altitude region.
“The LAC is simply not negotiable. Our troops will remain forward deployed in eastern Ladakh till the Chinese soldiers withdraw,” said an officer, after a consultative meeting among top officials from the Army and the foreign and defence ministries on Monday. The inter-ministerial meeting, a smaller version of the high-powered China Study Group led by national security advisor Ajit Doval, to formulate India’s future strategy came ahead of diplomatic talks through the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China Border Affairs (WMCC) later this week.
Five rounds of top-level military talks between the rival corps commanders have failed to break the deadlock in the stalled troop disengagement in Pangong Tso and Gogra as well as de-escalation in the rival military build-ups in the strategically-located Depsang Plains-Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO) sector, as reported by TOI earlier.
With China adopting a rigid stand in its design to forcibly push the LAC westwards, the military confrontation is into its fourth month now. India, too, has adopted a hardline military position, with a massive advance winter stocking exercise for its over 30,000 soldiers deployed just in Ladakh.
“It will require top-level political-diplomatic intervention since the military talks have failed to make any headway, with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) making unreasonable demands,” another official said.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 18 Aug 2020 14:51

darshhan wrote:
Deans wrote:When we talk of taking action against China, I'm not sure we are looking at this the right way.

While they are occupying our territory, which is not an acceptable situation, I don't believe the onus is on us to evict them, or initiate military
action. The question to ask is weather China's gains are more than their losses.
What the hell? If we do not take any action in the near future against China, the whole credibility of Indian state will disappear. You have no idea of what you are suggesting. If anything instead of being reactive, we should initiate the action and not only across ladakh region but also wherever possible in Himachal, uttarakhand, sikkim and Arunachal regions.

Domestically anyways Indian state is a failure. Whether it is Kairana or Kashmir or Kerala, Bengal or Bangalore, Kamlesh Tiwari or Naveen, Indian state is a big disaster where interests and safety of Hindus is concerned. If they are failures on external front too, then what exactly is the justification of Indian state's continued existence? They might as well pack up and go home.

On the contrary, I am all for taking action - now and on a continuing basis. My point is that we have more leverage when we take economic action,
while slowly but irrevocably hardening public opinion against China. It has a higher probability (in my view) of getting the Chinese to disengage without war - which (to quote Sun Tzu) is a huge victory, since a weaker state has compelled a stronger state to retreat without giving it a change to bring its stronger military to bear. If economic and other actions don't work, we will be better prepared to exercise the military option, since our readiness, deployment at the LAC, procurement etc is all, slowly but surely, moving forward - while the Chinese increasingly question why they have so many people camping at 5000 m, in miserable conditions, for so long. What I believe we need to avoid is a 1962 type situation where the political leadership feels pressured and then orders an unprepared army to `throw out the Chinese'.

RajaRudra · Post by **RajaRudra** » 18 Aug 2020 15:16

arshyam wrote:
schinnas wrote:Objectives:
1. Send a strong message that our borders are sacrosanct, words of our leaders carry weight and put an end to the policy of salami slicing by Cheen.
2. Fix tactical shortcomings in LAC and also get back some of the earlier occupations / salami slicing.
2.1. Get more territory than we want, to give room in the negotiation table.
3. Avoid getting into a full blown war but be prepared if it's thrust on us in the course of things.
Saar - militarily, we need to be more specific - the above are mostly political. Even if we aim for these objectives, are we ready if #2 spills onto #3? What can we do to prevent it?

If we are not prepared for (and look so) Point 3, then there is no need for Point 1 and 2. Better leave it silently like congress govts in 2008 and 2013.

For now, Game is to take some actions economically step by step and let the china blink first and disengage due to this action or winter.
just like there are many ways to skin the cat, military action is one of the tool and if needed needs to use on a best possible time(not perfect time).

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 18 Aug 2020 15:30

RajaRudra wrote: A simple confident statement from Govt that "In War, There will be captures/losses and we will not stop till the victory is achieved" would turn the narrative quite opposite and the same people would have mentally stronger.

In the background same thing had happened. I don't really even imagine Pakis would have released Abinandan as a good will gesture. Even they know, once govt gave that type of pointed/precise statement , it would be impossible to stop a full fledged war from us. If Modi, really wanted he could have taken the war there to Karachi. That option, is even now in the hands of PM(if so, he wishes)

100% agree. Given Modi's approval rating regarding the handling of the Chinese incursions, if he tells the country to hunker down for a war, they will. In Abhinandan's case, our objectives were already accomplished when we bombed Balakot. We wanted to stop it at the next rung of the escalation ladder & Modi's back-channel warning made Im-the-Dim brown his shalwar.

During Kargil, the people were with our Army & political leadership all the way through. And it wasn't some 1 or 2 week skirmish before massa-khan stepped in.

So, lets not underestimate the resolve of the Indian public. They *will* rally behind a good leader, especially if they know that the war is for a just-cause, which is true in this case

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 18 Aug 2020 15:55

Frankly, I don't understand the delay in kinetic action, especially if our forces are itching for it. We must exhaust options, alright. But its become very clear that the Chinese are here to stay into winter and beyond. The signal couldn't me more clear.

The question is: with each passing day, does our military advantage over the Chinese increase or decrease along the LAC?

If it increases, then by all means, lets stall and stalemate. But IMHO, our advantages decrease with each day:

1) Their troops were less acclimatized. With more time, they will become more acclimatized
2) We had numerical superiority. Maybe not anymore, at least in many local pockets
3) Building more infra at the LAC, due to both terrain and their ability to mobilize

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 18 Aug 2020 16:13

Prem Kumar wrote:Frankly, I don't understand the delay in kinetic action, especially if our forces are itching for it. We must exhaust options, alright. But its become very clear that the Chinese are here to stay into winter and beyond. The signal couldn't me more clear.

The question is: with each passing day, does our military advantage over the Chinese increase or decrease along the LAC?

If it increases, then by all means, lets stall and stalemate. But IMHO, our advantages decrease with each day:

1) Their troops were less acclimatized. With more time, they will become more acclimatized
2) We had numerical superiority. Maybe not anymore, at least in many local pockets
3) Building more infra at the LAC, due to both terrain and their ability to mobilize

1) What makes u think their troops were less acclimatized ? any evidence 2) numerical superiority , how come. IA claimed we are doing matching deployment/mirror deployment unless u have more info? numerical superiority means little if we cant move them around well. 3) building more infra ( i thought their infra is already well developed) and it was we who were doing infra development at break neck speed. i am curious to know if chini have created any concrete structures or all are semi pucca/porta cabin type stuff?

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 18 Aug 2020 16:35

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 610650.cms

Amid border tensions with China, indigenous fighter LCA Tejas Deployed on the Western Front- definitely seems like IOC aircraft have BVR capability.

LakshmanPST · Post by **LakshmanPST** » 18 Aug 2020 17:57

If war starts, there will no longer be return to Status quo... Things will permanently change...
Coz. currently Chinese are occupying, so called, grey areas and are preventing Indian patrols from going there...
-
So, if war starts, our objectives may be one of the following:-
----
A) In case of a limited conflict:-
-
1) Occupy grey areas and freeze Indian perception of LAC as new LAC:-
If you ask me, this is too small an objective to start a war... The main grey areas are 8 km North shore of Pangong and 600 sqkm of Bottleneck area... Both areas are full of mountains and ridges... I'm not sure a war is worth it for this small objective...
-
2) Occupy another area on Chinese side of LAC:-
Start a fight at a strategic location and push the LAC several km to Chinese side... Atleast occupy equivalent area of grey areas on Chinese side of LAC...
We can then use it as a bargaining chip for restoring status quo pre April 2020 (which I don't think will happen with current govt.), or make this new LAC...
-
But the question is, will China limit the fight to these 2-3 sub- sectors, accept defeat and walk away...??? Or will they escate it to a war along entire Ladakh sector...??? Or will they expand it to other sectors which will invariably become a full-fledged war...???

I'm not sure... I guess Chinese reaction will depend on a lot of factors... And some of these factors depend on how the skirmish progresses...
----
If we are going for full-fledged war, our minimum objectives should be:-
1) Occupy entire Aksai Chin, Demchok heights east of Indus and Shaksgam Valley in Ladakh, while simply defending the border in all other states viz. ArP, UK, Sikkkim, HP...
2) Force China to recognize entire Ladakh, Arunachal Pradesh and other small disputed areas in Uttarakhand and HP as Indian territories...
3) Occupy some additional area North of Karakoram pass (maybe exchange some area elsewhere if required), so that we can have better access to Shaksgam Valley...
4) Force China to sign an agreement that they would stop all projects in Gilgit-Baltistan and would take Indian Govt. permission for any project in future...
-
Additional objective if can be achieved:-
5) Force China to give up territorial claims in Bhutan and return all occupied territories...
----
In case a full-fledged war happens, whether we win or lose, personally, I would want the border to be frozen... This LOC, LAC type nonsense should end...
War is the last option for a conflict resolution... If a conflict is not resolved in a war, there is no point of war... Even if we lose the war, just forget your pride and even give up some territory if required...
We should not leave things unresolved... It will become an unnecessary burden on our future generations...

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 18 Aug 2020 18:42

LakshmanPST wrote:If war starts, there will no longer be return to Status quo... Things will permanently change...
Coz. currently Chinese are occupying, so called, grey areas and are preventing Indian patrols from going there...
-
So, if war starts, our objectives may be one of the following:-
----
A) In case of a limited conflict:-
-
1) Occupy grey areas and freeze Indian perception of LAC as new LAC:-
If you ask me, this is too small an objective to start a war... The main grey areas are 8 km North shore of Pangong and 600 sqkm of Bottleneck area... Both areas are full of mountains and ridges... I'm not sure a war is worth it for this small objective...
-
2) Occupy another area on Chinese side of LAC:-
Start a fight at a strategic location and push the LAC several km to Chinese side... Atleast occupy equivalent area of grey areas on Chinese side of LAC...
We can then use it as a bargaining chip for restoring status quo pre April 2020 (which I don't think will happen with current govt.), or make this new LAC...
-
But the question is, will China limit the fight to these 2-3 sub- sectors, accept defeat and walk away...??? Or will they escate it to a war along entire Ladakh sector...??? Or will they expand it to other sectors which will invariably become a full-fledged war...???

I'm not sure... I guess Chinese reaction will depend on a lot of factors... And some of these factors depend on how the skirmish progresses...
----
If we are going for full-fledged war, our minimum objectives should be:-
1) Occupy entire Aksai Chin, Demchok heights east of Indus and Shaksgam Valley in Ladakh, while simply defending the border in all other states viz. ArP, UK, Sikkkim, HP...
2) Force China to recognize entire Ladakh, Arunachal Pradesh and other small disputed areas in Uttarakhand and HP as Indian territories...
3) Occupy some additional area North of Karakoram pass (maybe exchange some area elsewhere if required), so that we can have better access to Shaksgam Valley...
4) Force China to sign an agreement that they would stop all projects in Gilgit-Baltistan and would take Indian Govt. permission for any project in future...
-
Additional objective if can be achieved:-
5) Force China to give up territorial claims in Bhutan and return all occupied territories...
----
In case a full-fledged war happens, whether we win or lose, personally, I would want the border to be frozen... This LOC, LAC type nonsense should end...
War is the last option for a conflict resolution... If a conflict is not resolved in a war, there is no point of war... Even if we lose the war, just forget your pride and even give up some territory if required...
We should not leave things unresolved... It will become an unnecessary burden on our future generations...

Good effort. But no mention of Tibet. As long as Tibet is with china, we can never rest easy. Somewhere I read 25% of world's fresh river water resources originate from tibet, including rivers like brahmaputra, indus, Mekong and even the main Chinese rivers. We cannot allow china to lord over these resources in long run. Not to mention that Tibet is also hosts Mahadev's home at Kailash mansarovar. So as long as Tibet is not separated from China, the conflict will not be over.

The important question though is that will we have generals like zhukov and Patton who can carry out this task.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 18 Aug 2020 18:57

=== rants deleted ===

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 18 Aug 2020 19:16

=== mod note ===
Thank you Darshan ji for your rants, whines and insights. Please take a break for a week

samirdiw · Post by **samirdiw** » 18 Aug 2020 19:17

=== useless rant deleted ===

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 18 Aug 2020 22:59

manjgu wrote:
Prem Kumar wrote:Frankly, I don't understand the delay in kinetic action, especially if our forces are itching for it. We must exhaust options, alright. But its become very clear that the Chinese are here to stay into winter and beyond. The signal couldn't me more clear.

The question is: with each passing day, does our military advantage over the Chinese increase or decrease along the LAC?

If it increases, then by all means, lets stall and stalemate. But IMHO, our advantages decrease with each day:

1) Their troops were less acclimatized. With more time, they will become more acclimatized
2) We had numerical superiority. Maybe not anymore, at least in many local pockets
3) Building more infra at the LAC, due to both terrain and their ability to mobilize

At the time of the incursion, we had 1 division in Ladakh + 1 brigade. The Chinese had 2 divisions brought in from Xinjiang.
We now have parity in firepower in Ladakh (and more manpower) while also bringing up our China tasked divisions closer to the LAC, along the
rest of the LAC.
We have a serious infrastructure gap with regard to transporting our men and material. By 2022, with many of our current infra projects being completed, the gap will not be as much of a disadvantage as it is now. Both sides have a problem with the facilities needed for all these men to live on the LAC. The longer this continues, the more likely a temporary deployment of 1 IA division to Ladakh will be permanent, thereby re-balancing our force structure on the LAC (the net result is 1 division moving from the North East to Ladakh).

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 18 Aug 2020 23:08

Deans wrote: At the time of the incursion, we had 1 division in Ladakh + 1 brigade. The Chinese had 2 divisions brought in from Xinjiang.
We now have parity in firepower in Ladakh (and more manpower) while also bringing up our China tasked divisions closer to the LAC, along the
rest of the LAC.
We have a serious infrastructure gap with regard to transporting our men and material. By 2022, with many of our current infra projects being completed, the gap will not be as much of a disadvantage as it is now. Both sides have a problem with the facilities needed for all these men to live on the LAC. The longer this continues, the more likely a temporary deployment of 1 IA division to Ladakh will be permanent, thereby re-balancing our force structure on the LAC (the net result is 1 division moving from the North East to Ladakh).

Which current infra projects will make that difference by 2022? The Z-Morh tunnel will be ready by then but unfortunately, Zoji-La will not thanks to the IL&FS bankruptcy. Without both those tunnels, there is no all-weather connectivity between Srinagar and Kargil. I do not know what the situation is between Kargil and Leh.

The Atal tunnel by itself does not make the entire Leh-Manali highway all-weather, but only a part of it per my understanding.

MeshaVishwas · Post by **MeshaVishwas** » 19 Aug 2020 01:08

Must watch!
Please listen to Maj Gen Virendra Vats, GoC Dagger Div(In charge of LC). He tells something that I had not known, that the Terroristanis are not in uniform(or something to that nature) and speaks about the difference in quality of equipment and more importantly men.

I am searching for the shots/video that they are referring to but am not able to get it just yet. But I found the I day video from Aaj Tak which shows the Sig716i in action, ISTAR capability etc.

k prasad · Post by **k prasad** » 19 Aug 2020 01:51

nachiket wrote: Which current infra projects will make that difference by 2022? The Z-Morh tunnel will be ready by then but unfortunately, Zoji-La will not thanks to the IL&FS bankruptcy. Without both those tunnels, there is no all-weather connectivity between Srinagar and Kargil. I do not know what the situation is between Kargil and Leh.

The Atal tunnel by itself does not make the entire Leh-Manali highway all-weather, but only a part of it per my understanding.

They'd also need a tunnel under Shinku La, and all-weather double-laning of the Padum-Darcha-Nimmo road, especially road improvements between Kurgiak and Padum, and between Zangla and Nimmoo

williams · Post by **williams** » 19 Aug 2020 01:58

Good article from Lt. Gen PR Kumar. I have highlighted some of the key quotes.

https://www.newsintervention.com/east-l ... is-coming/

We must be very clear that China has violated all the confidence building measures (CBMs), Border Defence Cooperation Agreement (BDCA), Joint Working Group, Senior Representative level understandings, protocols and mechanisms for border management, including the latest “strategic guidance to the respective militaries to strengthen communication to build mutual understanding and enhance predictability and effectiveness in managing borders” signed by President Xi Jinping and PM Modi even before the ink has dried.

A reasonable thought would be the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) taking advantage of weakened rivals, and an international power vacuum, hubristically overestimating its own power, reacting to aggression from its adversaries or opportunists and acting out of insecurity about its own status.

However close are our strategic alliances, India and its armed forces must be prepared to act alone to contest the LAC impasse.

Two-front scenario is a real and present danger, and armed forces have to plan and deploy their forces accordingly.

Logistics and supply chain management is vital and will dictate the level of operations/conflict, since the main bases of supply for both countries is far away. The nation which manages it better will carry the day.

Coming back to the LAC, logistically the Chinese can master it (if we can, so can it, is a prudent assumption). The question is can the Chinese troops weather the winter, I presume so, but they are largely conscripted, not used to high altitude sustenance over long periods, let alone fighting, and inexperienced in combat. Our logistics supply chains are long no doubt, but China’s main rear is mainland China and even longer, and most importantly Indian Army has been doing winter stocking in ever increasing quantities since decades.

India has signaled two aspects firmly; One, India’s intent of not backing down till status quo of April 20 is achieved; Two, and so, its armed forces including the additional formations (be it infantry, artillery, armour, mechanized, Air Defence, Army aviation and IAF) are going to buckle down for the winter.

Opportunities will come its way for the Indian Armed Forces. Army must continue aggressive patrolling in East Ladakh and challenged areas, always posing a threat to the Chinese deployed forward. With synergized multi-service operations and invaluable support from IAF, we should in phases isolate and evict, or force Chinese troops to withdraw to status quo locations; or even look for quid pro quo options of occupying sensitive territory across the LAC, employing the integrated battle groups (IBGs).

India must be more than ready to trade fire to achieve its mission of eviction. India and the Indian Army know that next summer physical eviction of Chinese will get even more challenging.

LakshmanPST · Post by **LakshmanPST** » 19 Aug 2020 06:59

darshhan wrote:
Good effort. But no mention of Tibet. As long as Tibet is with china, we can never rest easy. Somewhere I read 25% of world's fresh river water resources originate from tibet, including rivers like brahmaputra, indus, Mekong and even the main Chinese rivers. We cannot allow china to lord over these resources in long run. Not to mention that Tibet is also hosts Mahadev's home at Kailash mansarovar. So as long as Tibet is not separated from China, the conflict will not be over.

The important question though is that will we have generals like zhukov and Patton who can carry out this task.

I doubt we can take back entire Tibet or parts of it at this stage (though personally I would want India to occupy atleast Kailash ManasaSarovar region and entire Brahmaputra valley to secure Indian waters)...
Let us be realistic...
Taking back Tibet or liberating it may be an objective sometime in future, IF we win the current round...

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 19 Aug 2020 07:58

Not sure I buy all the "go to war with China NOW!" war-cries.

War is expensive. We are in a financial hole right now. If we start a war with China, the end game is not clear. Even if we somehow "make them sign" this and that, everything the Chinese sign is worthless. They are not going to abide by it. So what are we going to do then, cry again that the Chinese backstabbed us? We should think, and think again and again before we commit our jawans to a deadly war of aggression against China.

What is wrong with what we are doing right now, staying in an aggressive-defensive posture, make them make the first move and pound them if they do? We can hold this position forever, or till some external conditions change. In the meantime, quietly, patiently, build infrastructure, phase out trade with China, do what we want to do on the diplomatic front (Taiwan, Hong kong, Tibet et al) at our own sweet convenience? If we want to have a "kinetic" fight with them, maybe we can challenge their expansion into places like Africa, and feed some Han boys to the Hippopotami.

Generally war is not a final solution for anything. As a rule. But endless "death by a thousand cuts" is a game we can play also.

Anoop · Post by **Anoop** » 19 Aug 2020 08:51

I have seen only 2 articles mention the winter stocking that is happening. Gen. Raghavan's book on Siachen mentions the degree of meticulous planning required to stock up just the Siachen brigade. Now we have to stock up for an additional Division, which includes, if I recall correctly, 2 additional Arnd regiments. That includes concrete shelter for the tanks, ammo storage, POL depots. If these tanks remain deployed in the Depsang area through winter, that's even more of a logistical challenge since all construction material must be transported before October from Leh, since once the tanks come back to Leh they may not be able to return to Depsang in winter.

Then there's accommodation for the 1 extra Div personnel, around 15 thousand extra heads. Food, fuel, clothing, anmo (including for artillery), medical supplies. I don't know how long actual construction takes at that altitude and temperature for cement to set etc, so that needs to be factored in.

This means that at the very least, all our airfields and roads will have to be operational until winter. If I were the PLA, that is what I would target even in a limited conflict, since that is the IA's vulnerability. The PLA's logistics are easier since they have easier road access even in winter from Ngari which can be supplied by air.

Once these challenges are appreciated even broadly, not even in great depth, perhaps the reasons for not rushing headlong to liberate Aksai Chin (or Tibet!!) become more obvious?

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 19 Aug 2020 09:16

KLNMurthy wrote:Not sure I buy all the "go to war with China NOW!" war-cries.

War is expensive. We are in a financial hole right now. If we start a war with China, the end game is not clear. Even if we somehow "make them sign" this and that, everything the Chinese sign is worthless. They are not going to abide by it. So what are we going to do then, cry again that the Chinese backstabbed us? We should think, and think again and again before we commit our jawans to a deadly war of aggression against China.

What is wrong with what we are doing right now, staying in an aggressive-defensive posture, make them make the first move and pound them if they do? We can hold this position forever, or till some external conditions change. In the meantime, quietly, patiently, build infrastructure, phase out trade with China, do what we want to do on the diplomatic front (Taiwan, Hong kong, Tibet et al) at our own sweet convenience? If we want to have a "kinetic" fight with them, maybe we can challenge their expansion into places like Africa, and feed some Han boys to the Hippopotami.

Generally war is not a final solution for anything. As a rule. But endless "death by a thousand cuts" is a game we can play also.

+108

Totally agreed. There is huge asymmetry here - much less in term of military capability if any, and even economically PPP factor is smaller - but the asymmetry is in the location and strategic objective of the border/LAC itself. We lack clear objectives here; there is no populated place whose capture is feasible and will be welcomed - even Tibet is too spread out and sparse to matter.

It took us 7 years to dislodge the Chinese from Sumdorong Chu. With our current active posture, if that means stoking nationalism, cutting down on junk imports from China and building capability, it is already a war worth fighting for. We run the risk of fatigue, but we can always count on the craziness of Pakis and these days the Chinese to keep things simmering. Fatigue is a smaller price to pay than all out war with no objectives.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 19 Aug 2020 11:31

nachiket wrote:
Deans wrote: We have a serious infrastructure gap with regard to transporting our men and material. By 2022, with many of our current infra projects being completed, the gap will not be as much of a disadvantage as it is now. Both sides have a problem with the facilities needed for all these men to live on the LAC. The longer this continues, the more likely a temporary deployment of 1 IA division to Ladakh will be permanent, thereby re-balancing our force structure on the LAC (the net result is 1 division moving from the North East to Ladakh).
Which current infra projects will make that difference by 2022? The Z-Morh tunnel will be ready by then but unfortunately, Zoji-La will not thanks to the IL&FS bankruptcy. Without both those tunnels, there is no all-weather connectivity between Srinagar and Kargil. I do not know what the situation is between Kargil and Leh.

The Atal tunnel by itself does not make the entire Leh-Manali highway all-weather, but only a part of it per my understanding.

Nachiket ji, While you are correct about the big ticket projects, I was referring to the completion, by 2022, of all 73 of the border road projects
along the LAC - only 27 of which were completed at the start of 2020. The problem is not so much bringing troops and material to Ladakh, but
moving them from bases there (and in the North East) to the LAC and also allowing formations to move faster towards each other instead of
first moving back to a road hub (e.g allowing more east-west movement of our formations in Arunachal).

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 19 Aug 2020 11:44

Anoop wrote:I have seen only 2 articles mention the winter stocking that is happening. Gen. Raghavan's book on Siachen mentions the degree of meticulous planning required to stock up just the Siachen brigade. Now we have to stock up for an additional Division, which includes, if I recall correctly, 2 additional Arnd regiments. That includes concrete shelter for the tanks, ammo storage, POL depots. If these tanks remain deployed in the Depsang area through winter, that's even more of a logistical challenge since all construction material must be transported before October from Leh, since once the tanks come back to Leh they may not be able to return to Depsang in winter.

Then there's accommodation for the 1 extra Div personnel, around 15 thousand extra heads. Food, fuel, clothing, anmo (including for artillery), medical supplies. I don't know how long actual construction takes at that altitude and temperature for cement to set etc, so that needs to be factored in.

This means that at the very least, all our airfields and roads will have to be operational until winter. If I were the PLA, that is what I would target even in a limited conflict, since that is the IA's vulnerability. The PLA's logistics are easier since they have easier road access even in winter from Ngari which can be supplied by air.

Once these challenges are appreciated even broadly, not even in great depth, perhaps the reasons for not rushing headlong to liberate Aksai Chin (or Tibet!!) become more obvious?

The PLA has the same problems. Ngari is within Pinaka rocket range. Relying on it (assuming the PLAAF has the airlift capacity, which it doesn't), will be suicide. The actual road length (not `as the crow flies') from Hotan to the LAC is over 800 km. The additional problem the Chinese have when deploying people (all of whom come from sea level) in Ladakh, is that their entire deployment area (the Tibet plateau) is at 5000 meters. On our side, we rotate formations from bases at around 3500 meters (e.g. Leh) to higher altitudes. While it takes a few days for the body to acclimitise to high altitude, there is also a deterioration in the body's efficiency after prolonged exposure to high altitude - no one knows this better than IA from their Siachen experience.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 19 Aug 2020 12:06

Deans wrote: Nachiket ji, While you are correct about the big ticket projects, I was referring to the completion, by 2022, of all 73 of the border road projects
along the LAC - only 27 of which were completed at the start of 2020. The problem is not so much bringing troops and material to Ladakh, but
moving them from bases there (and in the North East) to the LAC and also allowing formations to move faster towards each other instead of
first moving back to a road hub (e.g allowing more east-west movement of our formations in Arunachal).

True. I was just worried about the resupply problems in the winter. Most of the fuel, food and supplies will be coming in from outside Ladakh at a time when neither of the two main highways might be open.

nam · Post by **nam** » 19 Aug 2020 13:45

For either India or China, there cannot be a short and shift war. Neither side will accept defeat and loose their position. If one side looses this round, that side will prepare for next round, post winter. Both sides have enough resources to fight a big war or multiple small wars.

If we push the Chinis back, by force this year, the Chinis will come back next year with force..

Both side know this. Hence all the moves are on the edge of a full blown conflict..

It is not an easy choice.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 19 Aug 2020 14:49

For argument’s sake, if we have a war with China and India has a repeat of 1962. If we sustain the loss of both Ladakh and Arunachal. What then? China will still not be the winner. The real war is for the position of being the number one nation in the world. That war is not between India and China. It is between China and the US. China was in position of winning that war 20-30 years down the road, before the China virus hit every one. But Eleven wanted it to happen now under his rule and not under someone else in future. Hitler had similar beliefs. He thought that if he did not win the War for Germany, no one else had the will and perseverance. He thought that it was fate that put him as a ruler of Germany. Eleven may have similar thoughts.
That may explain the hurry. As BRF readers, we do not have all the facts that the PM has. It seems Modiji has decided to wait and build up the armed forces. Things might change after October, when the winter sets in. Things are brewing in South China Sea and Taiwan that may start the war sooner.
On the other hand, China might surprise us with an unpredictable war. In 1962, there was a famine raging in China. Now, we have floods, food shortages and other disasters.
Gautam

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 19 Aug 2020 14:52

nam wrote:For either India or China, there cannot be a short and shift war. Neither side will accept defeat and loose their position. If one side looses this round, that side will prepare for next round, post winter. Both sides have enough resources to fight a big war or multiple small wars.

If we push the Chinis back, by force this year, the Chinis will come back next year with force..

Both side know this. Hence all the moves are on the edge of a full blown conflict..

It is not an easy choice.

Easiest option is to grab territory of our own -- just identify some strategic areas in the grey zone and pitch our tents there

RajaRudra · Post by **RajaRudra** » 19 Aug 2020 15:57

https://twitter.com/EnemySlayer24_7/sta ... 5208767488

Rumors of possible India - America joint exercise with B2

nam · Post by **nam** » 19 Aug 2020 16:13

RajaRudra wrote:https://twitter.com/EnemySlayer24_7/sta ... 5208767488

Rumors of possible India - America joint exercise with B2

I hope GoI doesn't become harishchandra and deny it...

Hope they keep it vague... If B52 can fly over Blore, why not B2?

May be CopeIndia 2020 time, with F35 & B2 would add some spice..

Anoop · Post by **Anoop** » 19 Aug 2020 19:20

Deans wrote:The PLA has the same problems.

Deans, even granting your point, it doesn't contradict my basic contention that neither side is itching for a war. The Chinese are squatting on territory that they didn't previously have permanent presence on without firing a shot. They haven't looked to start firing either. Perhaps that's an acknowledgement of their own vulnerabilities. However, on BRF, people advocating for instant action by the IA seem to have forgotten our constraints. We were surprised and we're playing catch up now.

Secondly, I am not sure I agree that the PLA's logistics is as vulnerable to the terrain and weather as ours is. In distance, yes. I base this on the fact that they have been able to build black top roads, even feeder roads all the way to the LAC, in addition to forward bases.That means that they were able to bring heavy equipment and construction material for years and that probably has given them a buffer in terms of surge capacity.

If there's any Armed Force that is capable of braving privation and remaining combat ready, it is ours. Nevertheless, no government should rush into a conflict without building up capability to sustain it. To do so would be criminal and we have already learned our lessons in 1962.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 19 Aug 2020 19:41

nam wrote:
RajaRudra wrote:https://twitter.com/EnemySlayer24_7/sta ... 5208767488

Rumors of possible India - America joint exercise with B2
I hope GoI doesn't become harishchandra and deny it...

Hope they keep it vague... If B52 can fly over Blore, why not B2?

May be CopeIndia 2020 time, with F35 & B2 would add some spice..

It's reportedly been active in Australia.
https://twitter.com/AircraftSpots/statu ... 1197102084

Aircraft Spots
@AircraftSpots

USAF B-2A BAJA01 from Diego Garcia, is currently returning to the base following a mission over northern Australia. It's highly likely that the stealth bomber flew to the Delamere Air Weapons Range to conduct a joint mission with B-1B BLUR01 from Andersen AFB, Guam.

Mollick.R · Post by **Mollick.R** » 19 Aug 2020 20:50

X-Post
India building new road to Ladakh for troop movement without enemy observation
ANI Last Updated: Aug 19, 2020, 05:09 PM IST

NEW DELHI: In an effort to rush troops and tanks to the Pakistan and China front in Ladakh without being observed by the enemy, India is working on making a new road from Manali to Leh, which will provide the third link between the high altitude mountainous Union Territory (UT) and the rest of the country.

India is also working on providing alternative connectivity to the strategically important Sub-Sector North including the Daulat Beg Oldi and other areas there for the last three years and work has already started from the world's highest motorable road Khardung La pass.

"Agencies are working to provide alternative connectivity from Manali to Leh through Nimu-Padam-Darcha axis which will help in saving a lot of time in comparison with the existing routes passing through Zojila pass from Srinagar and the other route from Manali to Leh through Sarchu," government sources told ANI.

The road will save almost three to four hours journey time while travelling from Manali to Leh and will also not leave any scope for the Pakistanis or other adversaries to monitor the movement of the Indian Army while deploying troops and heavy weaponry like tanks and artillery guns to the Ladakh area from other locations, they said.

The route mainly used for transportation of goods and men is the one from Zojila, which passes through Drass-Kargil axis to Leh. The same route was targeted heavily by the Pakistanis during the Kargil war in 1999 and was subjected to frequent bombarding and shelling by their troops from positions in high altitude mountains alongside the road.

Sources said the work has already started on this project and the new road will connect Manali with Leh near Nimu where Prime Minister Narendra Modi had recently visited during the ongoing conflict with China.

Likewise, to provide alternatives to the strategic Durbuk-Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldi road, India is working on further developing the old summer route on which caravans used to reach eastern Ladakh areas from the western side.

The new road will travel from Leh towards Khardungla and then move through glaciers including the Sasoma-Saser La-Shyok and Daulat Beg Oldi axis.

Senior sources said that the 14 Corps was given the responsibility of finding an alternative to the DSDBO road and check the road coming from near the Siachen camp towards the DBO area, and one unit was sent through there on a trial basis.

The Army unit travelled from Sasoma to Saser La in vehicles and the rest of the area on foot, on the route which is full of bones of double-humped camels which were used to ferry cargo, through the very rough Shyok river during the summers. The new route was earlier used by the Army also to maintain the Sub Sector North.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... content=23

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 19 Aug 2020 20:52

KLNMurthy wrote:Not sure I buy all the "go to war with China NOW!" war-cries.

War is expensive. We are in a financial hole right now. If we start a war with China, the end game is not clear. Even if we somehow "make them sign" this and that, everything the Chinese sign is worthless. They are not going to abide by it. So what are we going to do then, cry again that the Chinese backstabbed us? We should think, and think again and again before we commit our jawans to a deadly war of aggression against China.

What is wrong with what we are doing right now, staying in an aggressive-defensive posture, make them make the first move and pound them if they do? We can hold this position forever, or till some external conditions change. In the meantime, quietly, patiently, build infrastructure, phase out trade with China, do what we want to do on the diplomatic front (Taiwan, Hong kong, Tibet et al) at our own sweet convenience? If we want to have a "kinetic" fight with them, maybe we can challenge their expansion into places like Africa, and feed some Han boys to the Hippopotami.

Generally war is not a final solution for anything. As a rule. But endless "death by a thousand cuts" is a game we can play also.

I agree. For the first time in a long while we have the twin horror of a reduction in over all tax receipts and a hike in expenditure. From a fiscal perspective we just don't need a war unless it is thrust on us.

RaviB · Post by **RaviB** » 19 Aug 2020 21:11

It's not just us, China is also low on money and has major financial problems. We're all used to hearing the China success story of double digit economic growth. But I think there is a lot of suspicion that all is not well behind the lizard curtain.

I've posted this article elsewhere, it gives a good overview of the money problems facing the BRI and SHA
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/07/06/ch ... -spending/

greatde · Post by **greatde** » 19 Aug 2020 23:25

India biggest strength is it's market access, and the tactic of apps ban was used to emphasize that very point, and possibly negotiate into returning of status quo. Yet, it's clear, that it's irrelevant to them, as they accepted such costs and shows their huge importance on those border points. Now, the new idea is the winter costs will come in, be eventually unsustainable and status-quo would prevail. That can be best-case scenario but it seems all too unrealistic. There is also costs for Indian side which not yet factored in.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 19 Aug 2020 23:38

Anoop wrote:
Deans wrote:The PLA has the same problems.
Deans, even granting your point, it doesn't contradict my basic contention that neither side is itching for a war. The Chinese are squatting on territory that they didn't previously have permanent presence on without firing a shot. They haven't looked to start firing either. Perhaps that's an acknowledgement of their own vulnerabilities. However, on BRF, people advocating for instant action by the IA seem to have forgotten our constraints. We were surprised and we're playing catch up now.

Secondly, I am not sure I agree that the PLA's logistics is as vulnerable to the terrain and weather as ours is. In distance, yes. I base this on the fact that they have been able to build black top roads, even feeder roads all the way to the LAC, in addition to forward bases.That means that they were able to bring heavy equipment and construction material for years and that probably has given them a buffer in terms of surge capacity.

If there's any Armed Force that is capable of braving privation and remaining combat ready, it is ours. Nevertheless, no government should rush into a conflict without building up capability to sustain it. To do so would be criminal and we have already learned our lessons in 1962.

Anoop, I fully agree that neither side wants war and I have consistently advocated on this forum, that we explore economic and other areas of leverage before exercising any military option (which I see as occupying another part of the LAC, where there's a `difference in perception').
China has better road infrastructure (partly because they build on flat terrain) which compensates for the greater distance their formations have to travel. I'm not sure if their capacity to deploy these formations at the LAC is any better than ours (from what I can see on google maps) i.e. barracks, storage dumps, vehicle parks etc.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 19 Aug 2020 23:42

RaviB wrote:It's not just us, China is also low on money and has major financial problems. We're all used to hearing the China success story of double digit economic growth. But I think there is a lot of suspicion that all is not well behind the lizard curtain.

I've posted this article elsewhere, it gives a good overview of the money problems facing the BRI and SHA
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/07/06/ch ... -spending/

Two good books on this subject (free download on pdfdrive.com) are
- China's great wall of debt &
- Red flags - Why Xi's China is in jeopardy

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 19 Aug 2020 23:52

greatde wrote:India biggest strength is it's market access, and the tactic of apps ban was used to emphasize that very point, and possibly negotiate into returning of status quo. Yet, it's clear, that it's irrelevant to them, as they accepted such costs and shows their huge importance on those border points. Now, the new idea is the winter costs will come in, be eventually unsustainable and status-quo would prevail. That can be best-case scenario but it seems all too unrealistic. There is also costs for Indian side which not yet factored in.

The app ban is the beginning and it was done first as it's a low hanging fruit. The Chinese are concerned about the cost, particularly if the rest of the world follows. They will be more concerned if they lose out on our telecom and infrastructure markets (which is being done). I expect that existing measures (which in my view are inadequate) have already cost China $ 10 billion on an annual basis. Weather or not it is worth occupying 8 km of the Pangong Tso shore (which they had de-facto control over anyway), is something China has to figure out.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 20 Aug 2020 00:37

Low res open source sat images of Nagari Airport (their only airstrip east of Ladakh near LAC) - comparing 4 months ago to now. Anyone under the impression we will be necessary in a better position 2 years from now compared to the Chinese is deeply mistaken IMO. The Chinese will not be sitting on their thumbs meanwhile - for example from a few austere airstrips today we might be facing fully built up airbases in 2 years wiping out any advantage we have in the air.

April-2020

Aug-2020