India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

[williams]

I see a lot of people cite the economy as a reason for military inaction. Those are very good arguments. But have we already crossed that threshold of high costs in going for this permanent deployment in the winter? Are we going to maintain many such mini Siachens across the LAC? How are we going to handle troop fatigue and casualties due to accidents (like we had in operation Parakaram)? At some point, these troops need to be rotated and we need to build major logistics chains for training/acclimatization of rotating troops. It is a war of attrition whether we like it or not. Perhaps that is what is the Chinese goal in the first place. It is not an easy problem for GoI whether we take kinetic action or not.

[Vips]

India building new road to Ladakh for troop movement without observation from enemy.

In an effort to rush troops and tanks to the Pakistan and China front in Ladakh without being observed by the enemy, India is working on making a new road from Manali to Leh, which will provide the third link between the high altitude mountainous Union Territory (UT) and the rest of the country.

India is also working on providing alternative connectivity to the strategically important Sub-Sector North including the Daulat Beg Oldi and other areas there for the last three years and work has already started from the world’s highest motorable road Khardung La pass.

“Agencies are working to provide alternative connectivity from Manali to Leh through Nimu-Padam-Darcha axis which will help in saving a lot of time in comparison with the existing routes passing through Zojila pass from Srinagar and the other route from Manali to Leh through Sarchu,” government sources told ANI.

The road will save almost three to four hours journey time while travelling from Manali to Leh and will also not leave any scope for the Pakistanis or other adversaries to monitor the movement of the Indian Army while deploying troops and heavy weaponry like tanks and artillery guns to the Ladakh area from other locations, they said.

The route mainly used for transportation of goods and men is the one from Zojila, which passes through Drass-Kargil axis to Leh. The same route was targeted heavily by the Pakistanis during the Kargil war in 1999 and was subjected to frequent bombarding and shelling by their troops from positions in high altitude mountains alongside the road.

Sources said the work has already started on this project and the new road will connect Manali with Leh near Nimu where Prime Minister Narendra Modi had recently visited during the ongoing conflict with China.

Likewise, to provide alternatives to the strategic Durbuk-Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldi road, India is working on further developing the old summer route on which caravans used to reach eastern Ladakh areas from the western side.

The new road will travel from Leh towards Khardungla and then move through glaciers including the Sasoma-Saser La-Shyok and Daulat Beg Oldi axis.

Senior sources said that the 14 Corps was given the responsibility of finding an alternative to the DSDBO road and check the road coming from near the Siachen camp towards the DBO area, and one unit was sent through there on a trial basis.

The Army unit travelled from Sasoma to Saser La in vehicles and the rest of the area on foot, on the route which is full of bones of double-humped camels which were used to ferry cargo, through the very rough Shyok river during the summers. The new route was earlier used by the Army also to maintain the Sub Sector North.

[shyamd]

I see a lot of people cite the economy as a reason for military inaction. Those are very good arguments. But have we already crossed that threshold of high costs in going for this permanent deployment in the winter? Are we going to maintain many such mini Siachens across the LAC? How are we going to handle troop fatigue and casualties due to accidents (like we had in operation Parakaram)? At some point, these troops need to be rotated and we need to build major logistics chains for training/acclimatization of rotating troops. It is a war of attrition whether we like it or not. Perhaps that is what is the Chinese goal in the first place. It is not an easy problem for GoI whether we take kinetic action or not.

War would be even worse On the economy. Yes PRC have already achieved their objectives in many respects.

GOI needs to up its game on many fronts - GOI are saying it’s not over yet And there are few surprises waiting PRC. We’ll know more in tomorrow’s WMCC meet

[Nihat]

Every crisis is an opportunity and so is this one. We may finally see a lot of action on other fronts, thanks to this Chinese misadventure.

Perhaps the GoI does not believe that the cost of all out war will be justified in the form of strategic and tactical goals that can be achieved. Maybe this will finally compel us to complete all infra related activities on the LAC, increase self reliance in defense, speed up key procurement and finally face up to those snakes at an international level.

Ffs, they have been arming our enemies for decades now and we have been indirectly funding them. This has to stop and now.

[k prasad]

Speking of Tunnels on the Leh-Manali Axis, it looks like there are 4 tunnels being planned, with feasibility studies being conducted for tunnels at:

- Shinku La - 4.15 km (this number seems way too short, at least based on the terrain map)
- Baralacha La - 11.25-km, and
- Lachulung La (Lungalacha La) - 14.78-km (the length suggests this will also bypass Naki La just before Lungalacha La)
- Taglang La - 7.32 km

If all 4 tunnels get built, we will potentially have 4 all-weather routes to Leh -

1) Srinagar-Leh Highway (via Zoji La - Drass - Kargil - Namika La - Fotu La - Nimoo ),
2) Zanskar Valley Route (via Rohtang La - Keylong - Darcha - Shinku La - Kurgiak - Padum - Nimmoo)
3) Padum to Kargil route (via Rohtang La - Keylong - Darcha - Shinku La - Kurgiak - Padum - Rangdum - Sankoo - Kargil)
3) Manali-Leh Highway (via Rohtang La - Keylong - Zing Zing Bar - Baralacha La - Sarchu - Lachulung La - Pang - Debring - Taglang La - Upshi )

This might necessitate tunnels at Namika La and Fotu La as well, but in any case, it would be a HUGE strategic advantage if and when they get built. Thereafter, maintaining all-year alternate access to SSN without having to drive south from Leh all the way through Nyoma and Chushul will require a tunnel through either Khardung La, Wari La, or Chang La to get to the Shyok and Nubra valleys.

There's also the planned Bilaspur-Manali-Leh rail link via Taglang La, which seems to have assumed greater urgency recently (url 1, url 2

Here are some news sources for the tunnel projects:

2017 - After Rohtang, India plans 4 more tunnels planned for easy access to Chinese frontier
Army lists 9 top priority tunnels

Oct/Nov 2018 - https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/archi ... cha-671762

Nov 2018 - Feasibility Study research paper on Baralacha La from the Italian consultants

Nov 2019 - Some details on the other tunnels

Dec 2019 - https://www.hindustantimes.com/chandiga ... 0viTK.html

[ks_sachin]

Speking of Tunnels on the Leh-Manali Axis, it looks like there are 4 tunnels being planned, with feasibility studies being conducted for tunnels at:

- Shinku La - 4.15 km (this number seems way too short, at least based on the terrain map)
- Baralacha La - 11.25-km, and
- Lachulung La (Lungalacha La) - 14.78-km (the length suggests this will also bypass Naki La just before Lungalacha La)
- Taglang La - 7.32 km

If all 4 tunnels get built, we will potentially have 4 all-weather routes to Leh -

1) Srinagar-Leh Highway (via Zoji La - Drass - Kargil - Namika La - Fotu La - Nimoo ),
2) Zanskar Valley Route (via Rohtang La - Keylong - Darcha - Shinku La - Kurgiak - Padum - Nimmoo)
3) Padum to Kargil route (via Rohtang La - Keylong - Darcha - Shinku La - Kurgiak - Padum - Rangdum - Sankoo - Kargil)
3) Manali-Leh Highway (via Rohtang La - Keylong - Zing Zing Bar - Baralacha La - Sarchu - Lachulung La - Pang - Debring - Taglang La - Upshi )

This might necessitate tunnels at Namika La and Fotu La as well, but in any case, it would be a HUGE strategic advantage if and when they get built. Thereafter, maintaining all-year alternate access to SSN without having to drive south from Leh all the way through Nyoma and Chushul will require a tunnel through either Khardung La, Wari La, or Chang La to get to the Shyok and Nubra valleys.

There's also the planned Bilaspur-Manali-Leh rail link via Taglang La, which seems to have assumed greater urgency recently (url 1, url 2

Here are some news sources for the tunnel projects:

2017 - After Rohtang, India plans 4 more tunnels planned for easy access to Chinese frontier
Army lists 9 top priority tunnels

Oct/Nov 2018 - https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/archi ... cha-671762

Nov 2018 - Feasibility Study research paper on Baralacha La from the Italian consultants

Nov 2019 - Some details on the other tunnels

Dec 2019 - https://www.hindustantimes.com/chandiga ... 0viTK.html

K Prasad are you able to also follow activities in the N-E i.e. the Tawang sector and even Sikkim.

We need infra there as well and would be good to know what is being done / planned to be done there.

[k prasad]

Sachin-ji, I haven't been specifically following the NE sector, but yes, definitely a lot of infra development is needed there. Its difficult to web-scrape and find information unless we know the specific projects.

Btw, https://racingtheclouds.wordpress.com/ and https://www.cyclingmonks.com/category/travel/page/9/ (go backwards from page 9 for the posts) have some really useful and cool info and photographs of many of the roads discussed here.

Another news link about Tunnel building

[Deans]

Low res open source sat images of Nagari Airport (their only airstrip east of Ladakh near LAC) - comparing 4 months ago to now. Anyone under the impression we will be necessary in a better position 2 years from now compared to the Chinese is deeply mistaken IMO. The Chinese will not be sitting on their thumbs meanwhile - for example from a few austere airstrips today we might be facing fully built up airbases in 2 years wiping out any advantage we have in the air.

April-2020

Aug-2020

The advantage in the air we have, is not because the PLAAF has unfinished airbases, but because the high altitude (which they cannot change) has an enormous penalty on the payload of the aircraft. I'm not sure how the reflexes of pilots will be affected after a prolonged stay at 5000m.
The additional problem of bases close to the LAC is that Chinese radar (even if it is an AWAC) will have less than a minute's warning before the base is attacked by incoming aircraft - whose approach gets hidden by the Himalayas.

What the PLAAF bases in Tibet need before they can go to a war footing are a 2nd runway, individual hardened shelters, fuel storage, Radar, SAM etc. All our IAF bases have these. Compare for e.g. Srinagar or Ambala with Ngari. The PLAAF starting serious work on their airfields is a sign that they are taking this a lot more seriously.

[nachiket]

We need to beg, borrow, steal lease some aerial refuelers ASAP if we want our "advantage" of having low altitude air bases actually be useful. Our jets can take off with higher payloads but their radius of action will be much better if we had a half decent tanker force instead of the piddly six we have today.

[abhik]

Low res open source sat images of Nagari Airport (their only airstrip east of Ladakh near LAC) - comparing 4 months ago to now. Anyone under the impression we will be necessary in a better position 2 years from now compared to the Chinese is deeply mistaken IMO. The Chinese will not be sitting on their thumbs meanwhile - for example from a few austere airstrips today we might be facing fully built up airbases in 2 years wiping out any advantage we have in the air.

April-2020

Aug-2020

The advantage in the air we have, is not because the PLAAF has unfinished airbases, but because the high altitude (which they cannot change) has an enormous penalty on the payload of the aircraft. I'm not sure how the reflexes of pilots will be affected after a prolonged stay at 5000m.
The additional problem of bases close to the LAC is that Chinese radar (even if it is an AWAC) will have less than a minute's warning before the base is attacked by incoming aircraft - whose approach gets hidden by the Himalayas.

What the PLAAF bases in Tibet need before they can go to a war footing are a 2nd runway, individual hardened shelters, fuel storage, Radar, SAM etc. All our IAF bases have these. Compare for e.g. Srinagar or Ambala with Ngari. The PLAAF starting serious work on their airfields is a sign that they are taking this a lot more seriously.

The airstrips in Xinjiang don't face any altitude issue, they have already militarised 2 of them with upgrades in support infrastructure. There are 2 more (including one under construction) that are not yet militarised. Also for these, radar early warning may not be that much of an issue or will be a 2-way street.

[Prasad]

Hotan is at 1,380m. Bangalore is 920m.

[k prasad]

We need to beg, borrow, steal lease some aerial refuelers ASAP if we want our "advantage" of having low altitude air bases actually be useful. Our jets can take off with higher payloads but their radius of action will be much better if we had a half decent tanker force instead of the piddly six we have today.

.. we absolutely need more. We probably need 4-4X the number we have, if we want to maintain 4-6 on station across our borders with Pak and China, let alone in the IOR. However, we can still do more with the 6 we have, and the large number of air bases close to the border than PLAAF can do with their 13 tankers.

First, the nearest low-elevation locations to our borders are in Xinjiang, (Hotan for eg) at ~1400 m, and these are 300 km from Ladakh, 600-800 km from HP/Uttarakhand. The low-elevation locations closest to Sikkim and Arunachal are outside Tibet, i.e., Yunnan (1400+ elev) or Chengdu (500 m elev), and any meaningful target will be 600-800+ km away.

The combat range of Su-30 on internal fuel is about 3000 km, but thats at high elevation. Its 1700 km at low elevations. Even at moderate elevations of say 1400 m, there will be a fuel and weapons load drop, which we don't really face. The J-10 combat radius is about 1200 km, so I'll not consider it here.

Using jugaad-ganit, this means not only will their pilots have to fly longer to get to the operations point, but without air-to-air refuelling, they will have far lesser time on station, at least in terms of CAP missions near the border. Maybe not so much on strike missions which will be more in-and-out, but even then, the time taken for strike packages to get to their target locations gives us better detection odds, if we have good early warning detection capabilities. Plus, we will have enough CAP assets close to the bases to react quickly. They need to have aerial assets deployed in force around the clock.

Now, more maths in terms of aerial refuelling. Tankers can refuel fighters at a rate of 700-900 kg/minute. Given the fuel capacity of the Su-30/J-11 (9000 kg), it'll take 10 min to refuel the aircraft. Il-78 can do 2 at a time (maybe 3, but I doubt 3 Su-30s will refuel at a time, considering their size ). It has a transferable fuel load of 74 tons at 1000 km range, in other words, 6 aircraft, and then it needs to RTB to refuel... refuelling them will take say 40 minutes total. 40 minutes where the other aircraft in the team are burning fuel waiting for their buddies to get refuelled. Or, you have multiple tankers in one location for parallel processing, leaving patrolling gaps elsewhere.

My point here is, we have significant advantages, and our aircraft not only have longer time on station for patrolling and strike ops, but can also effectively patrol with fewer numbers, or more a/c on standby mode. PLAAF will need larger numbers and constant time-on-station just to maintain a deterrence posture against us. They might be able to hit us in strength with large-package pin-point strikes, but maintaining effective control over the airspace, or useful support of ground formations will eat-up their airframes hours much more quickly than us - even having an infinite number of tankers won't help them on that count.

We have the ability to use tankers as a strategic advantage for sudden and overwhelming force. They need them as a matter of necessity just to maintain decent level of aerial deployment. If things go kinetic, they will need every one of their tankers on station near our borders just to maintain vigilance, along their border with us (at least in the Sikkim and Arunachal sectors), while these tankers draw down on useful life.

[Manish_P]

The advantage in the air we have, is not because the PLAAF has unfinished airbases, but because the high altitude (which they cannot change) has an enormous penalty on the payload of the aircraft. I'm not sure how the reflexes of pilots will be affected after a prolonged stay at 5000m

Well said, sir. However one way they might try to significantly reduce this disadvantage would be by way of sheer numbers, using their MIL-IND complex, such as it is. Part of it could also be addressed, in the future, by Loyal Wingman type products and by UCAV fighters

[nam]

I am looking at example of what would cause a larger power to sue for a ceasefire. It is a given, irrespective of how the fight progress, our political setup will look for the first chance of ceasefire.

Our military requires a capability to force the Chinis to sue for a ceasefire, before our politicians and babus do.

The only successful example I can think of is Israel. It has been very successful in decimating opponent's airpower and local forces. They don't have capability to invade and capture large areas similar to Tibet.

The key is decimation of airpower and local concentration of forces(requiring air superiority), may be 30-40KM in depth. They key for us is superiority of IAF, which is where are failing big time.

[nam]

Do we have any MALD type decoys with IAF?

[Sridhar K]

Newbie questions. Arent Chinese Sukhoi clones in Tibet more of fighters than mud movers with mud moving roles given to H6 bombers? If yes, does the payload restriction apply for A2A loadouts as it does for A2G? If it does not, then isn't PLAAF pretty good in air defence role with mud moving to H6 flying in from kashgar and Hotan?

[abhik]

Chinese deployment in the vicinity of Lipulekh Pass (IIRC from one of Nitin G. videos this area presents both sides with good scope for action).

d-atis
@detresfa_
Indian media reports suggest #China has been actively deploying troops near the #India-#China-#Nepal tri-junction border area, an initial investigation reveals additional infrastructural upgrades ongoing in the area supporting the claims #IndiaChinaStandoff

[abhik]

Hotan is at 1,380m. Bangalore is 920m.

Yup exactly. Only airfields in Tibet proper have the altitude problems (like Nagari at ~4,200m). IMO, the airpower balance varies by region:
-> Northern Ladakh: The PLA AF is in pretty good position with their bases in Xinjiang.
-> Southern Ladakh to western AP: This is their weak area, we may be able to deploy 5-10x as many fighters (or at least perform that many sorties).
-> Eastern AP/Assam: This is where their "mainland" bases come into play, although the ranges are not favourable, they have a large fleet of heavy fighters that they will make it count.

[abhik]

Chinese deployment in the vicinity of Lipulekh Pass (IIRC from one of Nitin G. videos this area presents both sides with good scope for action).

d-atis
@detresfa_
Indian media reports suggest #China has been actively deploying troops near the #India-#China-#Nepal tri-junction border area, an initial investigation reveals additional infrastructural upgrades ongoing in the area supporting the claims #IndiaChinaStandoff
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ef25ArMVoAAo4Z5?format=jpg

I took a look at the Dhemchok sector, found a couple of camps there too (spotted via the trademark "pink" camouflage):
1) near their existing base across Chumur
2) around ~13 east of their eyesore base/apartment complex (or whatever that is) in Dhemchok.

[nachiket]

We need to beg, borrow, steal lease some aerial refuelers ASAP if we want our "advantage" of having low altitude air bases actually be useful. Our jets can take off with higher payloads but their radius of action will be much better if we had a half decent tanker force instead of the piddly six we have today.

.. we absolutely need more. We probably need 4-4X the number we have, if we want to maintain 4-6 on station across our borders with Pak and China, let alone in the IOR. However, we can still do more with the 6 we have, and the large number of air bases close to the border than PLAAF can do with their 13 tankers.

<snipped>

Thanks for that. Makes me feel a bit relieved.

[MeshaVishwas]

OT:
IAI actually gave us a decent way out, gimme them 767 and we will give you tankers for a fee.
Gajraj went out of production at the birth of Russia and we still have them being considered for the contest whereas no movement on the former.

On Topic: Cheen also fields a gigantic arsenal of SAMs.
If they lose a jet, they bury the news.If we lose a jet, we bury the goberment.

I sure as hell do not want a IC814 re run.

Maybe an overwhelming cyber attack, Israel did that with the Kameenei at Natanz etc.
We hit all prestige projects and cause a catastrophe (3 Gorges, Lhasa Hi Alt Rail)

[VKumar]

One refueller and one AWACS for every squadron of fighters.
DEAD/SEAD in every flight.

AI and autonomous is the future.

[ks_sachin]

One refueller and one AWACS for every squadron of fighters.
DEAD/SEAD in every flight.

AI and autonomous is the future.

[Ankit Desai]

Speking of Tunnels on the Leh-Manali Axis, it looks like there are 4 tunnels being planned, with feasibility studies being conducted for tunnels at:
.............

K Prasad are you able to also follow activities in the N-E i.e. the Tawang sector and even Sikkim.

We need infra there as well and would be good to know what is being done / planned to be done there.

Check this out by Nitin Gokhale. India's Strategic Roads: New Thorn In China's Side



-Ankit

[Gyan]

https://m.hindustantimes.com/columns/in ... =true&s=08


As an August 4 defence ministry note pointed out, China made fresh intrusions into Kugrang, Gogra and Pangong on May 17-18.

[shyamd]

WMCC talks not making headway. PRC came with some new demands. PRC position is that they want India to take reciprocal measures and remove some structures built including an old IA admin base at Pangong. GOI refusing saying that infra has been there for a long time... PLA saying okay that's fine we'll improve infra and dig in too just as you are doing on your side...

I think we are at the point now where GOI security, econ, political faction view is saying let's not do something drastic immediately - they have some diplomatic cards to play and just let time play out. Xi is under pressure and they are openly saying they want to teach US or allies a military lesson so the US backs off. This faction sees it as PRC setting up a trap for India... just as TSPA does every so often. As long as IA, IN are committing to defending the borders through winter - this stand makes sense.

IA favouring (offensive) action but I suspect the position will change as winter sets and temperature freeze.

[Ashokk]

India slaps new curbs on visas, schools to stem China's influence

India is stepping up its curbs on Chinese activity in the country, adding extra scrutiny for visas and reviewing Beijing’s links with local universities, as relations between the two nations continue to nose-dive.
The ministry of external affairs has been told that visas for Chinese businessmen, academics, industry experts, and advocacy groups will need prior security clearance, said senior officials who asked not to be identified, citing rules for speaking to the media. The measures are similar to those that have long been employed with Pakistan, they said.
The activities of Indian universities with tie-ups to Chinese institutions are likely to be drastically scaled down, one official said. The government is reviewing 54 memoranda of understanding signed between educational institutions including the Indian Institutes of Technology, Banaras Hindu University, Jawaharlal Nehru University and others with links to the official Chinese language training office, known as Hanban, which runs Confucius Institutes across the world.
With the exception of Mandarin language courses, tie-ups with Chinese institutions are likely to be discontinued, the officials said. The institutions are used to influence policy makers, think tanks, political parties, corporates and academics, they said.
The external affairs ministry didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

[williams]

https://www.theweek.in/news/india/2020/ ... -tens.html

The stalemate continues. Military level talks and diplomatic engagements may have lowered temperatures but India and China are still eyeball to eyeball on the 800 km long border in Ladakh.

On Thursday, a meeting of the Working Mechanism for Consultation & Coordination on India-China Border Affairs (WMCC) was held without any significant breakthrough.

The talks were held at the level of joint secretary at the MEA.

There have been five rounds of three-star general-level talks, two special representatives’ (Ajit Doval and Wang Yi) meetings and multiple rounds of local military commander rank dialogue between India and China. But all of them failed to bring in status quo ante at the border in Eastern Ladakh.

The Indian side has been reiterating its stand on restoring status quo ante April 2020 in Eastern Ladakh and complete pullback of Chinese military from Pangong Tso, Gogra and Depsang plains. Though some pullbacks have taken place in Galwan and Hot Spring areas, situation remains unchanged in other areas.

Both the sides have prepared for a long haul during winters as Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat made it clear to a parliamentary panel that Indian military would be there for winter with additional deployment. Indian military planners believe that things seem to be out of their control.

[williams]

Some interesting tidbits about IA advantage in LAC

https://eurasiantimes.com/indian-army-h ... y-experts/

Indian army’s specialization in high altitude warfare, some of which has also come from being stationed at world’s highest battlefield in Siachen, is expected to give a tough fight to the Chinese soldiers stationed along the LAC in Ladakh.

Adverse weather conditions, including up to seven feet of snow, could put the Chinese at a disadvantage because its army in Akasi Chin is largely made of conscripts, who were drafted for a three-month annual summer exercise in Tibet and Xinjiang in return for the state taking care of their future education.

The Chinese PLA troops are used to moving on armoured carriers in contrast to their Indian counterparts who not only patrol on foot but live in the worst of weather conditions whether in Siachen or in Sikkim or in Thag La ridge in Tawang

Indian troops are stationed in the harshest of conditions since 1984 in Siachen, Kashmir and North-east mountain theatre,

According to the survivors of the June 15 clash, a large number of Chinese PLA troops came in an armored personnel carrier and soon started dropping down due to lack of oxygen at 16,000 feet when the fisticuffs began between the two armies.

Even though the snow levels are comparatively more and the areas are hilly, the Indian Army is better equipped to sustain in such high-altitude areas having an advantage over the PLA.

It is not the temperature that will kill but the wind which increases the chill factor.

The other issue that the PLA will also have to keep in mind is that the Indian Army is deployed all along the 3488 km long LAC between the two countries, while the PLA is only deployed in selected places. This includes Sikkim, where the Indian Army surrounds the Chumbi Valley from three sides.

[nam]

It is good the Chinis are not budging. We need to keep the water boiling with regular threats.

The guys facing the Chinis in the east are suddenly realising the value of China facing a two front war..

The PLA can either basking in glory in Taiwan or guard frozen against us, guarding Tibet. Can't do both.

Would be quite helpful in making a deal for moving the supply chain in to India, in return for keeping the PLA freezing and out of breath at LAC. And US keeping our western joker on lease by hitting it with sanctions..

[Ashokk]

China must restore status quo ante in eastern Ladakh to resolve border standoff: Sources

NEW DELHI: The Chinese military is not serious about resolution of the border standoff in eastern Ladakh and it is faced with an "unanticipated" consequence for its "misadventure" due to a strong response by the Indian Army, government sources said on Friday.
The sources said there has been a stalemate in the military talks as the Indian Army was strongly insisting that the Chinese PLA must restore status quo ante of April this year to resolve the over three-month-old border standoff.

The Indian Army has clearly stated to China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) that "shifting" of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) is not acceptable to it, the sources said, adding the Chinese military is now desperately attempting to give "ex post facto strategic meaning" to its actions in eastern Ladakh.
"Due to the strong response of Indian Army, the PLA is faced with unanticipated and unintended consequences of its misadventure," said a source, adding it is looking for a "face-saving exit strategy".

Another source said the Chinese side is resorting to a strategy of "back and forth" and not showing any interest in finding a solution to the border stand-off.
India and China on Thursday agreed to resolve outstanding issues in an "expeditious manner" and in accordance with the existing agreements and protocols, the ministry of external affairs (MEA) said after the two sides held a fresh round of diplomatic talks to resolve the border row in eastern Ladakh.

[abhik]

WMCC talks not making headway. PRC came with some new demands. PRC position is that they want India to take reciprocal measures and remove some structures built including an old IA admin base at Pangong. GOI refusing saying that infra has been there for a long time... PLA saying okay that's fine we'll improve infra and dig in too just as you are doing on your side...

I think we are at the point now where GOI security, econ, political faction view is saying let's not do something drastic immediately - they have some diplomatic cards to play and just let time play out. Xi is under pressure and they are openly saying they want to teach US or allies a military lesson so the US backs off. This faction sees it as PRC setting up a trap for India... just as TSPA does every so often. As long as IA, IN are committing to defending the borders through winter - this stand makes sense.

IA favouring (offensive) action but I suspect the position will change as winter sets and temperature freeze.

So the piss at all costs faction is running out the clock on any kinetic options. The Chinese have "changed the status quo" (to put it mildly) using military power, with our over enthusiastic "disengagement", we are eroding the deterrence capability of our own military - it will just give them the confidence that they can do it again in the future and we will do everything to avoid an actual conflict.

[abhik]

Some interesting tidbits about IA advantage in LAC

https://eurasiantimes.com/indian-army-h ... y-experts/

Indian army’s specialization in high altitude warfare, some of which has also come from being stationed at world’s highest battlefield in Siachen, is expected to give a tough fight to the Chinese soldiers stationed along the LAC in Ladakh.

Adverse weather conditions, including up to seven feet of snow, could put the Chinese at a disadvantage because its army in Akasi Chin is largely made of conscripts, who were drafted for a three-month annual summer exercise in Tibet and Xinjiang in return for the state taking care of their future education.

The Chinese PLA troops are used to moving on armoured carriers in contrast to their Indian counterparts who not only patrol on foot but live in the worst of weather conditions whether in Siachen or in Sikkim or in Thag La ridge in Tawang

Indian troops are stationed in the harshest of conditions since 1984 in Siachen, Kashmir and North-east mountain theatre,

According to the survivors of the June 15 clash, a large number of Chinese PLA troops came in an armored personnel carrier and soon started dropping down due to lack of oxygen at 16,000 feet when the fisticuffs began between the two armies.

Even though the snow levels are comparatively more and the areas are hilly, the Indian Army is better equipped to sustain in such high-altitude areas having an advantage over the PLA.

It is not the temperature that will kill but the wind which increases the chill factor.

The other issue that the PLA will also have to keep in mind is that the Indian Army is deployed all along the 3488 km long LAC between the two countries, while the PLA is only deployed in selected places. This includes Sikkim, where the Indian Army surrounds the Chumbi Valley from three sides.

This episode has proven some of these often repeated "titbits" of knowledge to be complete BS by, like IA being "deployed all along the LAC" (yet PLA walked in and grabbed known areas of conflict). Many others may yet be debunked.

[Nihat]

It's true that calling us 'deployed' all along the lac is a strech but I do get the larger point. Winter will throw up a lot of very interesting possibilities.

Staying and being capable of fighting in those regions at that time is a lot about the sheer power of will and God knows our men do not lack it.

The next 6 months will surely test the Chinese resolve and bring more clarity to their strategic objective.

[suryag]

Even if some peaceniks want a face saver looks like the PRC/CCP/PLA will not allow that to happen. Testing time for all jingoes lets retain our faith in the Govt and pray for Dharma to win

[Cain Marko]

.. we absolutely need more. We probably need 4-4X the number we have, if we want to maintain 4-6 on station across our borders with Pak and China, let alone in the IOR. However, we can still do more with the 6 we have, and the large number of air bases close to the border than PLAAF can do with their 13 tankers.

<snipped>

Thanks for that. Makes me feel a bit relieved.

I'm guessing a few could be had for lease in a pinch? From the US perhaps? In the meanwhile let's not forget the humble rambha who will also nurse thirsty babies of the IAF. AFAIK Chini flankers didn't have this feature.

[LakshmanPST]

https://m.hindustantimes.com/columns/in ... =true&s=08


As an August 4 defence ministry note pointed out, China made fresh intrusions into Kugrang, Gogra and Pangong on May 17-18.

Defence Ministry note mentions 'Transgressions', not intrusions...
Both have entirely different meanings...

[nam]

Even if some peaceniks want a face saver looks like the PRC/CCP/PLA will not allow that to happen. Testing time for all jingoes lets retain our faith in the Govt and pray for Dharma to win

Hope the PM has already called up Taiwan and Japan, offering them to move North across the LAC, if PLA goes South towards Taiwan..

Ofcourse in return for moving the supply chain from China in to India..

As long as we keep the water boiling, PLA cannot move towards Taiwan. It is the Chinese's two front war.. a bigger two front.

[Aditya_V]

Vietnam has also complained that H6 bomber intrusions, looks the CCP is itching for a fight

[nam]

Who said we cannot play games. A must read Chinese whining, on how Russia agrees to fast track our S400, while theirs gets suspended..

A lot of other complains about Russia..

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics ... inst-china