India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

[pankajs]

Looking at GE, it appears the IA has been on or near the ridgeline to F-4 for sometime. If the PLA screams about recent movements, then it is a positive sign.

GE position on F4 ridge-line or between F4/5 are Chinese from back in May/June. At that time or before, India did not have any post on top the F4 ridge-line or in the buffer zone between F4/5.

[Hari Nair]

Once one occupies and secure the tops one doe not strictly need to push the ones down below back.

Once again, suggest members may kindly take some to read :

....
I urge forum members to go through the excellent analysis by Gen Thapliyal in USI Journal Apr-Jun 2005.

Its a must read since we are witnessing the activation of the very same sector.

Link as under:
https://usiofindia.org/publication/usi- ... he%20same.

One may wish to analyse on:
What they did in '62 vs what they are doing today
&
What we did vs what we are doing today

[pankajs]

@drapr007
·
1h
#BREAKING : Indian Armed Forces captured 14 dominating positions near Finger-4 and Finger-5 in Eastern Laddakh. We have not suffered any damage in this operation which lasted for 3 hours last evening.

God bless India. God bless Indian Armed Forces.

If we are at 14 points some of those are likely on the next major ridge to the east that goes right down to F8. Would allows India to dominate the whole area between F4/8.

[mihir.mehta]

What do we do to ensure that (assuming this is sorted amicably) Chinese don't do this in the future.

Exactly what we have been doing in the past 5-7 days. Gain tactical advantage and show intent that we are not afraid of a fight to defend our position and objective.

What we've really been doing is occupying our own area which we hadn't occupied before out of fear of provoking them. We still haven't imposed any major cost on them whether its economic or land or military cost.

Their economic capability to bear the cost is enormous. We just don't have the financial muscle to be in a prolonged conflict.

We just have to find a way to bear it. There is no other way around.

Ofcourse - but the point here is - this is something IMPOSED upon us by them taking advantage of our stupidity. Quite similar to Kargil. We were sleeping...

[pankajs]

Likely we will do what we did in Kargil i.e. keep a permanent posts starting Kui La down to the top of the F4 & F8 ridge.

The Chinese have already proven that neither their assurance or words nor any agreements with them can be trusted.

[Raveen]

Exactly what we have been doing in the past 5-7 days. Gain tactical advantage and show intent that we are not afraid of a fight to defend our position and objective.

What we've really been doing is occupying our own area which we hadn't occupied before out of fear of provoking them. We still haven't imposed any major cost on them whether its economic or land or military cost.

Their economic capability to bear the cost is enormous. We just don't have the financial muscle to be in a prolonged conflict.

We just have to find a way to bear it. There is no other way around.

Ofcourse - but the point here is - this is something IMPOSED upon us by them taking advantage of our stupidity. Quite similar to Kargil. We were sleeping...

Reduced valuations for major IPOs due to app ban, cancellation of contractors and tenders for infrastructure, I guess those aren't major economic costs?

[mihir.mehta]

Reduced valuations for major IPOs due to app ban, cancellation of contractors and tenders for infrastructure, I guess those aren't major economic costs?

They are - very small given the size of their economy . And given how this govt is handling our economy(Even without covid) - it'll take us a decade just to reach pre covid levels.

[Raveen]

Reduced valuations for major IPOs due to app ban, cancellation of contractors and tenders for infrastructure, I guess those aren't major economic costs?

They are - very small given the size of their economy . And given how this govt is handling our economy(Even without covid) - it'll take us a decade just to reach pre covid levels.

You can't affect their overall economy - I mean how do you propose affecting domestic consumption in China? you can affect their balance of trade with you which we did.

They way this govt handled the economy means we have one to recover, the previous administration pocketed a material % of our GDP in scams

[ramana]

Admin Note: This is an extra ordinary situation and some people still want to be in election mode. Denigrating a senior commander like General Panag’s professional competence or Indian Army’s leadership development ladder should not be used against his post-retirement political choices

At the risk of drifting off-topic :

I am afraid I need to stand by my statement made earlier.
If Gen Panag makes an analyses of the ongoing situation, then one obviously assumes given his earlier appointment as an Army Commander (Northern Command), he should be factual and objective.

His statements are neither.

Given that this is not the first time this gentleman has made such off-beat comments, it either means that he was not informed as an Army Commander or he has not cross -checked the facts of the '62 deployment.

I always respect senior retired officers. However there is a caveat - if post-retirement, they appear to go off-kilter and go at a tangent into an anti-establishment mode, then they deserved to be judged with the proverbial jaundiced eye.

Also, his political leanings are public. So, other forum members pointing these out are factually correct.

When poltical statements are made can bring the fig leaf of service to country.

I had written that Panag's account of what happened is acccurte but his advice is not.

[RamSuresh]

And given how this govt is handling our economy(Even without covid) - it'll take us a decade just to reach pre covid levels.

Is there any logical or quantitative basis for this, or just a rant?

India would have a 9% drop in GDP this year. Latest independent projections say by March 2022 we would recover to pre covid levels of growth.

[ramana]

Sir, what is your assessment of the viability of the Fukche airfield, given the Chinese radar station at Zhongcan? ....?

The Chinese have systematically gone about pushing their claim lines to negate the advantages of our ALGs in Ladakh - just check out their claim lines that have ensured that:
DBO, Chushul & Fukche all essentially fall within their small calibre mortar and light arty range. Their claim lines being pushed westwards in this sector in the proximity of these ALGs pushes us on the defensive.

Given the build-up of infra and good roads now, the need for ALGs in logistics have reduced. However, when push comes to shove, its always useful having ALGs which can take fixed wing aircraft.

Its high time we pay back in the same coin and "re-adjust" accordingly.

Very apt obeservation.. ALGs are our transport hubs for supplying our forward delpoyed troops. The claim lines are to negate these ALGs,
The roads infrastructure panicked the PRC hence this round of drama ni Ladakh.

Also not that unlike 1962 there is little activity in Tawang side. EEither GOI has reinforced the area or the PRC doesnt wnat to angonize the cilvian population there if they get to take over. I think its the former.

[manjgu]

1) occupying more heights gives us additional bargaining chips in the event of a negotiated settlement.. apart from obvious mil advantage if the ballon goes up. 2) if the quad and other EU countries together can impose significant economic costs on chini..not enough to bring them down on their knees but surely hurt them badly. But it will require a concerted effort. apart from tangible economic pain to china there are many intangibles that would additional presure on XI & co. if china economy is hurt.

[williams]

Folks, I think ultimately it is the political leadership to blame for the mess that has been created from 1962 and the kind of process that has been put by the previous regimes to protect the LAC and appease the Chinese at the same time. So the Indian mind, whether it be MEA babus, China Study group, or IA generals, - are trained to follow the dictum that you should not provoke the Chinese. Yet you should patrol the border without firearms to keep some sense of LAC. All of us are trained to say Pakis are our real enemy and we should be able to manage our relationship with China. Even people like Su.Swamy was harping the same until this conflict happened. We were saying this while the Chinese kept doing many things to undermine and trap us into this never-ending loop of encroaching into our strategic and tactical space in the name of face-saver. So we were always going for half measures when it comes to defending ourselves from an aggressive China. It took a long time even for this govt to realize that we are being played by the Chinese. They changed the tact after Galwan and I think we are simply seeing the fruits of it for the past 2 weeks. And what a great feeling we have when our boys have implemented this new govt policy with brutal efficiency. The elephant has woken up finally. So what we are seeing with some of the retired folks is getting adjusted to this new reality. Yet these are people who were ready to give their life and did give their lifetimes to their motherland. So we should respect that and move on. It is time for all of us to focus on defeating the Chinese at every level.

[ramana]

^^
We will hear on that soon enough given what Shiv Aroor has hinted in one on his tweets that I had posted on the last page. He seemed to be suggesting re-adjustment in the Dumchule/Domcheck area.

What is heartening to hear is that GOI, once it made up its mind to counter the Chinese, it has gone about it in a systematic way and across the board step by step. I am not complaining!

This is my first post - Thanks Admin for adding me.
I just hope India has a clear strategic objective. Are we going to sit on some of these tops should the Chinese agree to go back. At the end of this all - where does India want to be. Do we have that clarity.

That whole strategic thinking is missing i believe. Everybody is talking about PLA's concern about their highway G219, we hardly hear anybody talking about giving depth to DSDBO road or the road along the Indus south of Pangong near Fukche-Demchog.

What do we do to ensure that (assuming this is sorted amicably) Chinese don't do this in the future. Their economic capability to bear the cost is enormous. We just don't have the financial muscle to be in a prolonged conflict.

First of all welcome and thanks for asking.

I beleive there is no such thing as strategic objectiv.
Strategy comes from objectives.
If you read carefully GOI has worked since 2014 to national objectives without stating that.
# No loss of territory.

And wrt China: Depsang, Dokhlam and now Galwan that is the objective as I can discern.
And the forces are aware of the objective and the strategy and tactics developed for that objective.

We are seeing implementation but sincce we dont have road map are flummoxed.

[ramana]

1) occupying more heights gives us additional bargaining chips in the event of a negotiated settlement.. apart from obvious mil advantage if the ballon goes up. 2) if the quad and other EU countries together can impose significant economic costs on chini..not enough to bring them down on their knees but surely hurt them badly. But it will require a concerted effort. apart from tangible economic pain to china there are many intangibles that would additional presure on XI & co. if china economy is hurt.

There won't be a bargain. It's our land is ours. No barter with our land.

China can withdraw beyond Aksai Chin and declare Tibet as autonomous region.
I prefer independent Tibet.

[ramana]

Folks, I think ultimately it is the political leadership to blame for the mess that has been created from 1962 and the kind of process that has been put by the previous regimes to protect the LAC and appease the Chinese at the same time. So the Indian mind, whether it be MEA babus, China Study group, or IA generals, - are trained to follow the dictum that you should not provoke the Chinese. Yet you should patrol the border without firearms to keep some sense of LAC. All of us are trained to say Pakis are our real enemy and we should be able to manage our relationship with China. Even people like Su.Swamy was harping the same until this conflict happened. We were saying this while the Chinese kept doing many things to undermine and trap us into this never-ending loop of encroaching into our strategic and tactical space in the name of face-saver. So we were always going for half measures when it comes to defending ourselves from an aggressive China. It took a long time even for this govt to realize that we are being played by the Chinese. They changed the tact after Galwan and I think we are simply seeing the fruits of it for the past 2 weeks. And what a great feeling we have when our boys have implemented this new govt policy with brutal efficiency. The elephant has woken up finally. So what we are seeing with some of the retired folks is getting adjusted to this new reality. Yet these are people who were ready to give their life and did give their lifetimes to their motherland. So we should respect that and move on. It is time for all of us to focus on defeating the Chinese at every level.

See reading Chanakya is not bookish knowledge.
When NaMo was elected to power in 2014 he got an empty treasury, bankrupt foreign policy and so on. So the military had to be built up and all this takes time.
Chanakay says engage the bigger power and builld your strength.
That's what was done.
Meantime there are a lot of foreign influenced folks in everry sphere of life even here who are working hard to discredit.

viewtopic.php?p=2309505#p2309505

Incidentally he says there are six ways instead of the traditional four ways. Inaction (Asana) is there!!!

Yana is preparing for war.

He says about the six ways (page 210):

Sangraha:Peace by treaty
Vigraha: Keep them busy with war or non-war
Asana: Be watchful, silent and do nothing
Yana: Prepare for war
Samasraya: Seek protection of stronger king
Dvaidhibhava: Make peace with one while making war with another
----
I don't have the book but I think Asana is when one is confronted with a hostile & powerful state is the recommended practice.

But it has to be with strong measures to strengthen ones own state.

[sajo]

Jaishankar has been snubbed ? Delay of over 2 hours now, if the below is true.

IndiaToday
@IndiaToday
·
2m
The meeting between Indan and Chinese foreign ministers delayed, India Today's
@Geeta_Mohan
gets you the latest on this development.
#NewsToday #ITVideo #Breaking |
@SardesaiRajdeep

Live http://bit.ly/IT_LiveTV

There are reports that Wang was huddled with Qureshi and deliberately missed meeting Jaishankar. They dont like discussing anything when they are not at an advantage?

[Pratyush]

Jaishankar has been snubbed ? Delay of over 2 hours now, if the below is true.

IndiaToday
@IndiaToday
·
2m
The meeting between Indan and Chinese foreign ministers delayed, India Today's
@Geeta_Mohan
gets you the latest on this development.
#NewsToday #ITVideo #Breaking |
@SardesaiRajdeep

Live http://bit.ly/IT_LiveTV

There are reports that Wang was huddled with Qureshi and deliberately missed meeting Jaishankar. They dont like discussing anything when they are not at an advantage?

The EAM is too seasoned a diplomat to be bothered by such stupid games.

However, if the PRC wants to play a game. He can simply leave the table and return home.

PRC can keep waiting then.

[pankajs]

^^
True.

[Anujan]

There are a few things about the Chinese:

1) They have attempted to attack or gone back on their agreements even when discussions were on. I think part of it might be intentional: Sun Tzu deception and all. Part of it might just be structural -- the local commander's testimonials are being squeezed by the commissar, while his professional boss is holding discussions. The local commander has no idea what to do. Just follows the commissar's orders.

2) PLA has not been battle tested in recent times. However, they seem to be better equipped. I personally do not know what lesson we should draw from 62. Our defeat seems to be because we held our posts with too little manpower, who were not backed up by good logistics or roads. Even then, in battle in spanggur gap for example, the casualty ratios were 1:8 and stopped the chinese advance. We have better logistics now, we hold positions with more force. Their casualties are likely to be worse than 62.

3) Not sure how the escalation will proceed. What if we kill 1000 in spanggur gap, and they decide to shell DBSO? We'd need to shell their arty otherwise our supply lines would be cut, and then we ride up the escalation spiral.


4) The operation was probably planned by eleven or with his approval by his underlings. I think they misread intentions and probably smoked their own supply. The line of thinking goes "everyone is conspiring against us. SDREs will attack when we get into an eventual shooting match over taiwan. They've already laid plans for it by abrogating 370, developing infra, and threatening to take back GB and Aksai Chin. The best time to attack and teach them a lesson is now". The objective was probably to permanently dominate and observe DBSO, so they have plenty of warning if India wanted to attack towards tibet. They probably miscalculated more by thinking that if they inflict a couple of dozen casualties, we'd hide them under the fear that it would tarnish the govt's image, and the SDREs will choose to deescalate instead of risking more casualties and give up territory for fait accompli that DBSO would be under constant threat and observation. The chinese have better information control than us, they'd never admit to any of their casualties, so in that psyops they have the upper hand. However it didnt fly as they expected. We draped our brave in flags and told everyone about their sacrifice and redoubled our resolve.

So they have stumbled into this escalation spiral with no way out, because eleven's H&D is at stake here. The only possible move for them is to get into a short sharp conflict, kill a few Indians, declare victory and declare unilateral ceasefire. I fear that casualties are going to be worse than Kargil.

My heart goes out to the bravehearts manning the cold heights.

[darshan]

See reading Chanakya is not bookish knowledge.
When NaMo was elected to power in 2014 he got an empty treasury, bankrupt foreign policy and so on. So the military had to be built up and all this takes time.
Chanakay says engage the bigger power and builld your strength.
That's what was done.
Meantime there are a lot of foreign influenced folks in everry sphere of life even here who are working hard to discredit.

+1. I just don't understand such statements about govt was not doing anything. To do many things starting 2014 would have required beforehand knowledge about 2019 election results. One processor, one queue and infinite service requests. Introduce priorities?

[mihir.mehta]

Deleted

[Mort Walker]

Looking at GE, it appears the IA has been on or near the ridgeline to F-4 for sometime. If the PLA screams about recent movements, then it is a positive sign.

GE position on F4 ridge-line or between F4/5 are Chinese from back in May/June. At that time or before, India did not have any post on top the F4 ridge-line or in the buffer zone between F4/5.

I was looking at 33 43 39 N, 78 45 55 E at 4503 m elev. near the ridgeline leading down to F-4.

[Suraj]

Is there any logical or quantitative basis for this, or just a rant?
India would have a 9% drop in GDP this year. Latest independent projections say by March 2022 we would recover to pre covid levels of growth.

Indeed. Please remember mihir.mehta, that while you're new here and have some latitude, it's not a license to emit random FUD or derail threads. It will earn post deletions or a warning. The topic of this thread is the border. Please stick to it.

[pankajs]

GE position on F4 ridge-line or between F4/5 are Chinese from back in May/June. At that time or before, India did not have any post on top the F4 ridge-line or in the buffer zone between F4/5.

I was looking at 33 43 39 N, 78 45 55 E at 4503 m elev. near the ridgeline leading down to F-4.

IIRC, that too is Chinese camp. The talk back then was that the Chinese had not only built on the ridge but also on the slope towards the Indian side as observation post. Would fit it with that.

Here's another further along the ridge. 33°44'22.89"N, 78°46'28.50"E on the India facing slope even while the Chinese have a massive camp on Chins facing slope of the ridge.

Another Chinese camp on the slope facing India 33°45'7.22"N, 78°45'56.17"E

[Mort Walker]

I was looking at 33 43 39 N, 78 45 55 E at 4503 m elev. near the ridgeline leading down to F-4.

IIRC, that too is Chinese camp. The talk back then was that the Chinese had not only built on the ridge but also on the slope towards the Indian side as observation post. Would fit it with that.

Here's another further along the ridge. 33°44'22.89"N, 78°46'28.50"E on the India facing slope even while the Chinese have a massive camp on Chins facing slope of the ridge.

Another Chinese camp on the slope facing India 33°45'7.22"N, 78°45'56.17"E

Those are west of the Chinese claim of the LAC. They've crossed their own LAC which means all of their claims, as usual, are bunk.

[chola]

1) occupying more heights gives us additional bargaining chips in the event of a negotiated settlement.. apart from obvious mil advantage if the ballon goes up. 2) if the quad and other EU countries together can impose significant economic costs on chini..not enough to bring them down on their knees but surely hurt them badly. But it will require a concerted effort. apart from tangible economic pain to china there are many intangibles that would additional presure on XI & co. if china economy is hurt.

There won't be a bargain. It's our land is ours. No barter with our land.

China can withdraw beyond Aksai Chin and declare Tibet as autonomous region.
I prefer independent Tibet.

The only way the last one can happen is a crushing defeat on our borders plus a general uprising.

Forget about hurting their economy. They are growing while we are contracting. It will be this way for a few years after Wuhan virus.

The one advantage we have over them is an experienced military formed by jawans who are professionals against a gamers' army of spoiled single children.

For us to make a mark on the hierarchy of geopolitics, the kinetic option is the best, imho. Full scale border war where we go all out with the IAF and IA with all their quality and quantity advantages and impose a monumental defeat on them -- something along the lines of Nomonhan.
Imperial Japan suffered such a defeat there that they rather to bomb Pearl Harbor instead of facing the Russians again. We want Cheen to be hurt so bad that they rather fight a naval with the USN war than tangle with us again in the mountains.

The Russian and Japs fought with corps-sized formations. It'll have to be that way here. It can't be a few hundred or even a few thousand men so it would be a massive commitment. But it would be an earth-shaking victory that could change history.

[AshishA]

^^^ I don't know about the general uprising part since that has been predicted for a long time now. And there has been no result. And in this case, all the blame will be put on PLA commanders and their military bosses. Xi and their brethren will escape but will be weakened.

As much as I hate to say this, the only way to deal with China is to hand a crushing defeat through a war now. If we wait for the future, we run the risk of eroding our present advantages.

[gauravsh]

Mods, apologies for being OT here, but what is the reason for current GOI to not make the Brooks report (at least in parts) public now.
I have never understood the implications (strategic / operational etc ) after more than 50 years of war.

[Mort Walker]

I don't agree with this wanting war talk. Jawans and their families are real people. Watching their funerals and family, even on TV, is a tear jerker.

The Indo-China border is over 3800 Km long. I would just as soon see the IA cross over at many high positions and establish camps and erect permanent structures. I suspect this is what China is going to do in the next coming years to India, they won't launch an attack if they're smart.

[chanakyaa]

Not to deviate from the border stuff, but the border engagements and Chinese economy/population are two different things. Just for some perspective, if the numbers are approx close based on the hu line, over 90% of Chinese population and over 85% of their economy does not border India's LAC, well, depending on who owns Tibet

[Lohit]

CCP / ISPR channels posted some ridiculous clips of "hot food" being delivered to troops via drones.

Regardless in case of an escalation, drones might emerge as a significant variable.

Given that they have been out-foxed in this leg of the mountain war and consisting the immense pressure on PLA commanders to perform or perish, it is highly likely that will try to ignite a limited conflict.

CCP handles are also increasingly talking about digging in for the winter. But given their penchant to deceive, this might be an attempt to lull us into a false sense of complacency before they strike a blow.

In this context use of drones throws up many questions,

1. If drones are used, what rung of the escalatory ladder would this fall in? Do we retaliate with aircraft?

2. If aircrafts are used and given that drones are much more expendable and China with its manufacturing can throw in a lot of them, is it a risky strategy to escalate using aircrafts for our side? A hot pursuit by our aircraft may result in loss of some aircraft, all for some made in Wuhan drone.

Of course this discounts the unknown configuration of air defences that each side may choose to field and which may obviate the need for aircraft altogether. And while we operate Harpies as well I am not optimistic if we can field them in numbers that may be required in a drone war.

3. Drones may or may not also reduce Chinese disadvantage of distant and high altitude airfields. I am unable to make an educated comment either way but if they do, that again increases the weight assigned to drone warfare as a variable in the overall scenario.

I do have a feeling that China as a nation is overfond of flashing it's new toys, like some spoiled brat. Given this and indications that they may have used drones in galwan skirmish as well, I hope (as I'm sure) mil planners are taking the threat from drones into the equation.

Overall as I see it, considering that a war is v likely

1. A short contained war - depends on how tech intensive it gets. A low tech intensive war, given our experience may favor us

2. A long contained war - given our relatively weaker production base may be less favorable

3. A short, uncontained war - I feel will actually be best case scenario as it may see our side (hopefully) act in the Naval theater in concert with the US and further accelerate global polarisation against US

4. A long, uncontained war - will be WW3 and not worth speculating onlee

[Sonugn]

^
Independence Day: DRDO's anti-drone system was part of PM Modi's security at Red fort

DRDO has developed & deployed anti drone system, though i am not sure of it's applicability in the current theater.

Meanwhile EAM JS & Wang meeting continues into the 3rd hour or so.

Also GT is getting jittery & latest input is that if India wants peace it should accept Nov 7th 1959 LAC line

[vijayk]

Jeff M. Smith
@Cold_Peace_

Doubtful. Compared to Siachen, Pangong is downright tropical. The Indian military is traditionally better acclimated and Pangong is closer to Indian population and supply centers than Chinese. I don't think winter is going to strengthen China's hand. Can't blame him for trying.

Hu Xijin 胡锡进
@HuXijin_GT

China state-affiliated media
· Sep 10
If Indian troops don't withdraw from the southern bank of Pangong Tso Lake, the PLA will confront them all winter long. Indian troops' logistics are poor, many Indian soldiers will die of freezing temperature or COVID-19. If a war breaks out, Indian army will be defeated quickly.

[hnair]

So they have stumbled into this escalation spiral with no way out, because eleven's H&D is at stake here. The only possible move for them is to get into a short sharp conflict, kill a few Indians, declare victory and declare unilateral ceasefire. I fear that casualties are going to be worse than Kargil.

My heart goes out to the bravehearts manning the cold heights.

This is something that is closer to my view - they might use some armed drones + rocket artillery to inflict quick casualties for a brief barrage on the folks that climbed the peaks. Then declare ceasefire as a largehearted measure as the pakis did with their Operation Sniff-rectort. But unlike the pakis who were ok with their bombs going astray, these guys would have to show causalities on our side and that means more comitted efforts than the paki half-assed ones

The brave-hearts are probably vulnerable to shrapnel due to lack of building materials for even a sangar atop those barren peaks. I really hope there is a whole stash of Iglas for self defense up there, along with the already known loads of Carl Gustaves. The counter-fire, am sure will be ably dispatched, but absorbing their fire at those heights is something that do worry me personally.

We really dont know how well trained their artillery is at those heights, but the pakis were pretty deft and tenacious. But still they get smacked regularly and accurately by our artillery at heights beyond those at the Ladakh theatre.

[VikramA]

So they have stumbled into this escalation spiral with no way out, because eleven's H&D is at stake here. The only possible move for them is to get into a short sharp conflict, kill a few Indians, declare victory and declare unilateral ceasefire. I fear that casualties are going to be worse than Kargil.

My heart goes out to the bravehearts manning the cold heights.

This is something that is closer to my view - they might use some armed drones + rocket artillery to inflict quick casualties for a brief barrage on the folks that climbed the peaks. Then declare ceasefire as a largehearted measure as the pakis did with their Operation Sniff-rectort. But unlike the pakis who were ok with their bombs going astray, these guys would have to show causalities on our side and that means more comitted efforts than the paki half-assed ones

The brave-hearts are probably vulnerable to shrapnel due to lack of building materials for even a sangar atop those barren peaks. I really hope there is a whole stash of Iglas for self defense up there, along with the already known loads of Carl Gustaves. The counter-fire, am sure will be ably dispatched, but absorbing their fire at those heights is something that do worry me personally.

We really dont know how well trained their artillery is at those heights, but the pakis were pretty deft and tenacious. But still they get smacked regularly and accurately by our artillery at heights beyond those at the Ladakh theatre.

not likely because if they open fire on ridges , their entire mech brigade sitting in Spanggur will be massacred.

[Deans]

Mods, apologies for being OT here, but what is the reason for current GOI to not make the Brooks report (at least in parts) public now.
I have never understood the implications (strategic / operational etc ) after more than 50 years of war.

The Henderson-Brooks report can be googled and downloaded. I've studied it.
Having read it - and several books on the 62 war, my view is that it has not been released because its a damming indictment on the army leadership of that time. Henderson-Brooks had access to army documents (more than political views) and based his report on that. Some of the generals (not just Thapar and Kaul) were as culpable of negligence of their duties and lack of competence as were Nehru and Krishna Menon. Even at a tactical level, there were many failings - we have discussed for e.g. Rezang La in this forum.

[Suraj]

The discussion on Chinese likely actions missing an important detail: yes they would want to show some shock-and-awe visual for domestic consumption prior to hasty ceasefire/withdrawal due to winter. However, they need to control the visuals from *our* end too.

They've been repeatedly humiliated in recent weeks by the kind of messaging from our end. Their outposts holding prawn stashes ? Soldiers in cool US copycat uniform holding sickles for pre-Baisakhi wheat harvest ? Leaked photos of graves of Galwan dead, and internal anger at poor PLA veteran affairs situation - ex-PLA officers bitterly said 'the IA takes care of their war dead, we hide and pretend nothing happened'. US and Indian intelligence getting wind of Beijing's anger at frontier commandant causing loss of face, and more.

Explicit and open use of the banned Snowlion flag by SFF personnel, with GoI's encouragement. That flag by the way is not cultural - it was the real political flag of former independent nation of Tibet (from 1916 when Tibet again became independent after Qing empire fell apart, to 1951 when PLA invaded). That's right - an Indian regiment manned by ethnic Tibetans carrying their foreign flag of the territory China occupies. That is worse than some notional AIMIM-funded militia carrying ISIS/Razakar flags around Telangana.

The point here is, they haven't shown much credibility at messaging lately - either at keeping bad news at their end from leaking, or managing their interactions with Indian messaging. To show victory, they need to message that clearly too. What do they do when they cut and run and Indian video / satellite imagery shows they lost entire swathes of territory in the process ?

So there's not just the question of what they can do, but what they can message without looking impotent when they lose control over messaging .

To succeed, they need to act on a scale at which their gains are clear and they need to do it with enough of an element of surprise that already entrenched IA cannot retaliate and lay waste to a lot more entrenched PLA resources there. Can they get past the seemingly 24/7 observation in that theater and do that ? And message that right ?

[Lohit]

^
Also GT is getting jittery & latest input is that if India wants peace it should accept Nov 7th 1959 LAC line

Question is how can these jitters be made to reach a fever pitch? I feel the answer is provided by NaPakis with their asymmetrical warfare and psyops that have enabled them to seariously challenge a country with which they have a massive power gulf.

To think of one hypothesis,

Arunachal to Lhasa is 300 kms. A potential threat to Lhasa will galvanise the Tibetan population.

A few peaks conceded to India in Ladakh may not matter so much. A deep infiltration SFF mission or partisan actions in Lhasa will surely shake up Beijing and make it think long and hard about what exactly it wants to start with India.

We are prepared for the symmetrical beefing up of mil all along the border anyway. What will they do assymetrically? Fund Maoists or Pak based Jihadis?

[AshishA]

Adding to the questions in Suraj ji's post, Will Pakis play a role in all of these? Will the Chinese even want the Pakis to actively engage India with them? As they run the risk of looking weak if they can't handle a so called 'weak' India on their own. Or will the Chinese engage Pakis in a covert role aka through terrorists etc?

Their level of collaboration in case of conflict needs to be looked upon too.