VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

sajaym · Post by **sajaym** » 13 Sep 2020 19:59

Mort, you know very well how the netas/babus squandered the original deal for the additional M2Ks and left the IAF high & dry. Now if you are in IAF boots and if you know that the Rafales are damn good fighters & that you don't have enough of them, isnt it better to order a few more now rather than later when a) They are more expensive b) Impossible to acquire -- due to production line closure/shouting from RaGa?

The presence of the French defence minister -- who is supposed to have come with a 'big team', is a clear indicator that GOI is planning to slip in a 'googly' of an order under the current 'Fog of war' at the LAC. The LCA programme is here to stay in various forms, and it's definitely going to be a part of the IAF due to the 'Atmanirbhar' push. So just let the IAF have it's last hurrah.

asbchakri · Post by **asbchakri** » 13 Sep 2020 21:07

I would very much love to see more than 200 LCA in the IAF inventory. But looking at the current situation, if the govt. does not have funds for both, I would rather have another 36 Rafale (or maybe 50). If the government can afford both i'm more than happy. I'm not saying to completely scrap the order, but in reduced numbers to keep the production lines running until Tejas Mk2 starts its production run around 2022. I know many here would not like this, but its just my opinion

But then again, it's just my wish, it all comes down to what the IAF or the govt decides i guess.

vivek_ahuja · Post by **vivek_ahuja** » 13 Sep 2020 21:24

ManuJ wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:^^^Just be happy Rajnath Singh didn't touch French Defence Minister's feet. I admit I have not seen IAF induction ceremonies in the past, but watching clips of this on TV was cringeworthy at best.
Indian govt may be hyping up the Rafale to make it politically easier to order the next batch of 36.

Have you ever got a good deal from a user-car dealership by visibly demonstrating your desperateness to the sales-man/woman? Does it not often have the opposite effect of having the salesperson tightening the screws knowing how desperate you are?

vivek_ahuja · Post by **vivek_ahuja** » 13 Sep 2020 21:25

asbchakri wrote:I would very much love to see more than 200 LCA in the IAF inventory. But looking at the current situation, if the govt. does not have funds for both, I would rather have another 36 Rafale (or maybe 50). If the government can afford both i'm more than happy. I'm not saying to completely scrap the order, but in reduced numbers to keep the production lines running until Tejas Mk2 starts its production run around 2022. I know many here would not like this, but its just my opinion

Unfortunately, the bolded part above accurately summarizes the tactics used by the import lobby to cripple and eliminate local competition. Once you have taken this slippery slope, "funds" will always be used to throttle the sales in favor of continuous imports.

vivek_ahuja · Post by **vivek_ahuja** » 13 Sep 2020 21:30

sajaym wrote:The presence of the French defence minister -- who is supposed to have come with a 'big team', is a clear indicator that GOI is planning to slip in a 'googly' of an order under the current 'Fog of war' at the LAC. The LCA programme is here to stay in various forms, and it's definitely going to be a part of the IAF due to the 'Atmanirbhar' push. So just let the IAF have it's last hurrah.

Yes, let's just keep the lid on the LCA production until it goes the way of the Marut.

Isn't it funny how funds are never a problem for acquiring small batches of extremely expensive foreign aircraft, but 15 LCH have to wait years because nobody is offering a "googly" of an order for them? And the LCA Mk-1: anybody offering a "googly" there to increase the order from 40 to 80?

It is fascinating to see how the passion is pouring out in favor of more Rafales. The funds magically appearing in the process. The same funds will magically disappear again when someone asks about the LCA and LCH.

asbchakri · Post by **asbchakri** » 13 Sep 2020 22:13

vivek_ahuja wrote:
asbchakri wrote:I would very much love to see more than 200 LCA in the IAF inventory. But looking at the current situation, if the govt. does not have funds for both, I would rather have another 36 Rafale (or maybe 50). If the government can afford both i'm more than happy. I'm not saying to completely scrap the order, but in reduced numbers to keep the production lines running until Tejas Mk2 starts its production run around 2022. I know many here would not like this, but its just my opinion
Unfortunately, the bolded part above accurately summarizes the tactics used by the import lobby to cripple and eliminate local competition. Once you have taken this slippery slope, "funds" will always be used to throttle the sales in favor of continuous imports.

I understand that, but i was hoping that was in the past and this govt. under Modiji it will be mostly in the interest of Indian security requirements. I do not want India totally reliable on imports but thats not going to change anytime soon, but in current changing situation it would not hurt to have 36 more Rafale.

vivek_ahuja · Post by **vivek_ahuja** » 13 Sep 2020 22:24

asbchakri wrote:
vivek_ahuja wrote:
Unfortunately, the bolded part above accurately summarizes the tactics used by the import lobby to cripple and eliminate local competition. Once you have taken this slippery slope, "funds" will always be used to throttle the sales in favor of continuous imports.
I understand that, but i was hoping that was in the past and this govt. under Modiji it will be mostly in the interest of Indian security requirements. I do not want India totally reliable on imports but thats not going to change anytime soon, but in current changing situation it would not hurt to have 36 more Rafale.

Can I offer that if in the process of purchasing 36 more Rafale, all existing funds dry up that in turn prevents the acquisition of a host of home-grown products: LCH, LCA, Arjun, Astra, LUH etc., then the damage done to us is actually quite severe?

Note also that while we highlight "security requirements in Laddakh", none of these additional 36 Rafales will be delivered anywhere close to the immediate timeline of the crisis?

asbchakri · Post by **asbchakri** » 13 Sep 2020 22:50

of course not, I'm mostly talking in the long term. I really wish India pushes with homegrown products even with their shortcomings, that is the ideal way. It's not just the govt. the IAF and IA should also support them like the IN does today, which for whatever reason they are not fully behind it. I will also like to see Arjun in large numbers, thats not happening either. I agree with what you say completely and really really wish that happens, but since it will not, go for the next best thing in the interest of the country. Anyway in the current situation the Economy is, i'm not sure even that will happen, at least for now.

ManuJ · Post by **ManuJ** » 13 Sep 2020 23:40

vivek_ahuja wrote:
ManuJ wrote: Indian govt may be hyping up the Rafale to make it politically easier to order the next batch of 36.
Have you ever got a good deal from a user-car dealership by visibly demonstrating your desperateness to the sales-man/woman? Does it not often have the opposite effect of having the salesperson tightening the screws knowing how desperate you are?

You misunderstood. When I said 'politically easier', I was referring to internal politics. Opposition (read Congress and RG) tried its best to 'Boforsify' the Rafale deal, though it failed. Issuing a fresh order can resurface those allegations, and thus hyping up the merits of Rafale and showcasing it as India's knight in shining armor helps in proactively countering that possibility.

I believe India already has the option to purchase 36 more aircraft at the same price.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 14 Sep 2020 00:19

sajaym wrote:Mort, you know very well how the netas/babus squandered the original deal for the additional M2Ks and left the IAF high & dry. Now if you are in IAF boots and if you know that the Rafales are damn good fighters & that you don't have enough of them, isnt it better to order a few more now rather than later when a) They are more expensive b) Impossible to acquire -- due to production line closure/shouting from RaGa?

The presence of the French defence minister -- who is supposed to have come with a 'big team', is a clear indicator that GOI is planning to slip in a 'googly' of an order under the current 'Fog of war' at the LAC. The LCA programme is here to stay in various forms, and it's definitely going to be a part of the IAF due to the 'Atmanirbhar' push. So just let the IAF have it's last hurrah.

1. The M2K acquisition was delayed by previous governments and not this one which will have a 10 year tenure ending May 2024.
2. If I was in the IAF boots, I would want significant numbers to defeat the enemy knowing full well funds are limited and this fiscal year India's GDP will contract by 5-9%. There is no doubt the Rafale is a great combat aircraft, but without overt financial support, the Tejas, which is also a great aircraft, is dead regardless of what the forces want.
3. Rafale @ $200 million/aircraft or Tejas @ $50 million/aircraft? I would say place the order for the 83 Tejas for around $5 billion, and then buy one more squadron of 18 Rafale for $4 billion including weapons. This way 54 Rafales and 83 Tejas.
4. It is apparent that without orders, the LCA Tejas program will see at the most 2-3 squadrons by 2030. The program will wither away and the IAF to make up numbers will again resort to Russian junk.

Vivek K · Post by **Vivek K** » 14 Sep 2020 07:07

asbchakri wrote:of course not, I'm mostly talking in the long term. I really wish India pushes with homegrown products even with their shortcomings, that is the ideal way. It's not just the govt. the IAF and IA should also support them like the IN does today, which for whatever reason they are not fully behind it. I will also like to see Arjun in large numbers, thats not happening either. I agree with what you say completely and really really wish that happens, but since it will not, go for the next best thing in the interest of the country. Anyway in the current situation the Economy is, i'm not sure even that will happen, at least for now.

Actually - you're trying to do what the Americans describe as "having your cake and eating it too". Already this 36 Rafale purchase is causing push back of orders to half ready LCH airframes and quite possible the 83 MK1As and perhaps the FOC deliveries are also halted to give the budgets a breather to catch up.

When IAF purchased nearly 300 MKIs, what was it thinking (or not)?After 300 were purchased, the powers that be have woken up to realize that the Rafales are better at everything that the MKI can do. A fleet that was once sold to the taxpayer as an Air Dominance fighter is relegated to sulk and pout at the adulation the PM, DM and IAF are showering at the Rafale.

It is exactly the type of argument you're posing that allowed Jaguars (an underpowered aircraft) to be purchased to replace the Maruts. When you buy a system like a fighter initial costs and requirements are not the only consideration.

At this moment IAF is the weakest of the three forces with a fleet strength that will be stretched to its limits in a two front war. IAF fleet strength on paper appears decent but when you look closer - 130+ Jags (6 squadrons) of a type that IAF did not use even over Sri Lanka. DRDO's DARIN series upgrades have at least brought the aircraft on par with its peers though with an underpowered engine, perhaps air combat would not result in outcomes we all have come to expect from IAF's highly skilled pilots. And the Bisons 125 odd (another 6 squadrons) are 20 year past their final upgrade (from bis to bison), i.e. on their last legs.

The only way India can build a force structure and be able to pose an offensive challenge to the Chicom is through domestic MIC development providing cheaper products that are developed for the threat scenarios India faces. The LCA presents a rare opportunity - build as many and quickly. Quick is to be taken in Indian terms because orders take time, armament decisions take time and then the import lobby throws every trick in the book to derail the domestic product which MOD gleefully accepts. But the LCA is going the Arjun way it seems. Buying Rafales is a historical blunder especially when 300 MKIs (the super dee duper Air Dominance fighter that we were told the workd wanted to get a glimpse of) are available.

vivek_ahuja · Post by **vivek_ahuja** » 14 Sep 2020 07:30

ManuJ wrote:You misunderstood. When I said 'politically easier', I was referring to internal politics. Opposition (read Congress and RG) tried its best to 'Boforsify' the Rafale deal, though it failed. Issuing a fresh order can resurface those allegations, and thus hyping up the merits of Rafale and showcasing it as India's knight in shining armor helps in proactively countering that possibility.

So Indian internal politics should override strategic national security decisions?

Make no mistake about this, additional 36 Rafales will cost so many additional USD Billions that they will effectively cripple all strategic home-grown product acquisitions for years to come.

vivek_ahuja · Post by **vivek_ahuja** » 14 Sep 2020 07:33

Vivek K wrote:Actually - you're trying to do what the Americans describe as "having your cake and eating it too". Already this 36 Rafale purchase is causing push back of orders to half ready LCH airframesand quite possible the 83 MK1As and perhaps the FOC deliveries are also halted to give the budgets a breather to catch up.

I take it you mean LCA airframes? Or did you actually mean the LCH acquisition here?

Vivek K · Post by **Vivek K** » 14 Sep 2020 08:04

I meant the LCH airframes that are talked about waiting for orders to come while we see a flurry of orders for AKs, Rafales, and other imports. In today's worldview - national security encompasses economic AND military security. By denying high tech, high paying jobs to the local population, we are forcing poverty on the country for decades to come. This recent episode should show the stark difference - a war of deliberate will for the Chinese and one of desperation for us. Once again we sit with dignity in our borders due to the courage, bravery and fearless defence of the motherland by our brave soldiers. Indian Army has proven beyond doubt that it will not give up an inch without a ghamasan yudh (fierce battle).

asbchakri · Post by **asbchakri** » 14 Sep 2020 08:43

Vivek K wrote: Actually - you're trying to do what the Americans describe as "having your cake and eating it too"..

Whats wrong with that

So correct me if i'm wrong, isn't Tejas supposed to replace Mig21's and MRCA is to fill up the numbers and Rafael is a result of the now defunct MRCA. Wether buying Rafale is a colossal blunder or not is a thing of past. I believe India was always going to buy both LCA and MRCA at one point and maybe each cater to different needs. The issue here is sacrificing LCA over an imported fighter, which I fully agree. But since we already bought it no point in arguing about that, but all i'm saying is since we have the option for a follow on order of 36, the govt. might go for it. As I said before I would like to see the govt. order more LCA than we have. I'm all for more local products than imported one's, which I thought this govt. was going for, but I still do not see that happening. We can debate all day on this but in the end it's what the govt decides. I'm still hopeful that they do the right thing and order the 83 LCA that they committed upon. If they decide on Rafale over LCA orders, I may not like it, but will have to accept it and hope they stop at that and really commit on the Tejas Mark2 when it come on. That is why I said if the govt. still want to go for more Rafale fine, but not to scrap the LCA order but go for a smaller number to keep the production line running. In the end we need good planes in numbers.

Trust me I agree with all your are saying, just trying to be realistic.

Vivek K · Post by **Vivek K** » 14 Sep 2020 09:49

We can debate all day on this but in the end it's what the govt decides. I'm still hopeful that they do the right thing and order the 83 LCA that they committed upon. If they decide on Rafale over LCA orders, I may not like it, but will have to accept it and hope they stop at that and really commit on the Tejas Mark2 when it come on

Why bother posting - ask GOI for permission before posting. Maybe the GOI will not want you to post and that would be fine with you. India is poor and backward because of generations of Indians that have allowed politicians to loot them and bankrupt the country.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 14 Sep 2020 18:25

asbchakri wrote:If they decide on Rafale over LCA orders, I may not like it, but will have to accept it and hope they stop at that and really commit on the Tejas Mark2 when it come on. That is why I said if the govt. still want to go for more Rafale fine, but not to scrap the LCA order but go for a smaller number to keep the production line running. In the end we need good planes in numbers.

Both will come - Tejas and additional MMRCA aircraft. But the latter will not be in the triple digits (114), because there is no money and the GOI knows it. The IAF needs aircraft and waiting for unobtanium (MMRCA) is not going to work. So the 83 Tejas Mk1A will be signed. The IAF will only be shooting itself in the foot if it delays it. Same with the development of Tejas Mk2. The "fake" Rafale scam has ruined the future MMRCA purchase. A smaller order of MMRCA will come (2 - 3 squadrons worth) to stop the bleeding of squadron depletion. That will happen. Whether that is Rafale or another type will depend on how the financial situation plays out and the geopolitical scenario.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 14 Sep 2020 18:46

Vivek K wrote:When IAF purchased nearly 300 MKIs, what was it thinking (or not)?After 300 were purchased, the powers that be have woken up to realize that the Rafales are better at everything that the MKI can do. A fleet that was once sold to the taxpayer as an Air Dominance fighter is relegated to sulk and pout at the adulation the PM, DM and IAF are showering at the Rafale.

The Rafale complements the Su-30MKI, but does not replace it. Of all the aircraft currently in the fleet - incl Rafale - the only bird that can launch the BrahMos is the Su-30MKI. Of all the combat aircraft in the fleet, the largest type is the Su-30MKI. The IAF is still working on the Super Sukhoi program, but an upgrade is 100% on the cards. And once that is done, the Rambha will still maintain her edge over anything in the PAF and even the PLAAF.

When the Rambha was inducted in 2002, she was indeed the Air Dominance fighter in South Asia. And to a large extent, she still is in 2020. It has been 18 years (to this month) when the first Su-30MKI squadron was raised at Lohegaon AFS, Pune. And 18 years is a long time for any fighter to remain on top, without any serious upgrades. The Super Sukhoi upgrade will change that.

We have been through the entire story on the Rafale acquisition and the reason for it. Please stop with the falsehoods.

asbchakri · Post by **asbchakri** » 14 Sep 2020 18:51

Rakesh wrote: Both will come - Tejas and additional MMRCA aircraft. But the latter will not be in the triple digits (114), because there is no money and the GOI knows it. The IAF needs aircraft and waiting for unobtanium (MMRCA) is not going to work. So the 83 Tejas Mk1A will be signed. The IAF will only be shooting itself in the foot if it delays it. Same with the development of Tejas Mk2. The "fake" Rafale scam has ruined the future MMRCA purchase. A smaller order of MMRCA will come (2 - 3 squadrons worth) to stop the bleeding of squadron depletion. That will happen. Whether that is Rafale or another type will depend on how the financial situation plays out and the geopolitical scenario.

I completely agree with you and that is what I was trying to say from start, we need more aircrafts. I never expected them to be in triple digits or just stopping at 36, Maybe I have not been able to express that correctly.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 15 Sep 2020 00:53

asbchakri wrote:I completely agree with you and that is what I was trying to say from start, we need more aircrafts. I never expected them to be in triple digits or just stopping at 36, Maybe I have not been able to express that correctly.

It will be at minimum Saar, another two squadrons. If it is Rafale, base infrastructure exists at Hasimara and Ambala to house one additional squadron each. That is the logical thing to do, but logic does not exist at our MoD or with our politicians.

If it is another MMRCA type, again the initial purchase will be two squadrons. Because there is the initial cost of base infrastructure, weapons, tools, spares, etc. All that will increase the cost.

Regardless of whichever type acquired, anything more than two squadrons worth will require money to grow on trees.

Mirage 2000 came first and then came MiG-29. I am hoping it is not a repeat of that scenario, but knowing our decision makers...it is highly possible.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 15 Sep 2020 01:07

^^^Another two squadrons with logistics and weapons is well over $8 billion. Better to spend half that for one more squadron and the rest of the money will buy 83 Tejas. The Rafale is wonderful, but enough is enough! There isn't enough money for two more squadrons without sacrificing domestic manufacturing. Both can not be done. The budget doesn't exist no matter how hard you try.

S_Madhukar · Post by **S_Madhukar** » 15 Sep 2020 01:24

Considering we have COVID and security situation on the border can the government float bonds on the market and borrow cheaply to fund infra Development and military hardware? This way may be we get some of the exchange reserves to fund our MIC and forces ? Otherwise we are always short of funds in peace time and no budget exceptions are made for security as if we are the only nation supposed to underspend on this

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 15 Sep 2020 02:09

Mort Walker wrote:^^^Another two squadrons with logistics and weapons is well over $8 billion. Better to spend half that for one more squadron and the rest of the money will buy 83 Tejas. The Rafale is wonderful, but enough is enough! There isn't enough money for two more squadrons without sacrificing domestic manufacturing. Both can not be done. The budget doesn't exist no matter how hard you try.

No Sir. A second tranche of Rafales will not cost $8+ billion. More like $5 billion (conservative) to $6 billion (high end). That is the whole point of base infrastructure. Set it up once for a set amount of aircraft and it is good to go. The cost estimate I have provided will stay true, as long as the second tranche is similar to the first tranche (F3R variant with India specific enhancements). So basically no F4 variant. Also, anything above and over 36, will obviously increase the cost. So for example, if 44 more are acquired instead of 36, it will move the needle up.

The 83 Tejas will get signed. There is no way to undo that shoelace. It is too far in the game now. Undoing it, will only harm the IAF and no one else. That order will get sanctioned now. Orders for additional Rafales (or other MMRCA) will come only post 2021/2022. By then, all 36 Rafales will have been delivered and Mk1As will be getting assembled. Economy may be better than it is right now. So more money available.

Look at it long term. Barring the Rafale and Tejas, the youngest aircraft in the fleet is the Su-30MKI. By 2035, the MiG-29s...the Mirage 2000s...and the Jaguars will have all been retired. So apart from 13 - 14 Rambha units, there will be 2 Rafale units, 4 Tejas Mk1A units and 2 Tejas Mk1 units. That is 22 squadrons by 2035 and there is another 20 squadrons left to fill. Tejas Mk2 will take up a big slack, perhaps up to 10 units. So now we are up to 32 units. There is still shortfall of 10 units. The GOI will be able to afford another two more units of the Rafale and some additional Tejas Mk1A units to get to around 36 - 38 squadrons.

Moral of the Story - two more Rafale squadrons (or another MMRCA) is definitely doable. But not more, unless cost is not an issue.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 15 Sep 2020 02:16

See this chart below Mort-ji. Another 36 will come to $3.8 billion + $1.2 billion. So $5 billion sub-total for planes and weapons. A good chunk of the ISE is software updates, but there is hardware as well. For argument's sake, add half the cost of the ISE and you get a grand total of $6 billion for another 36 Rafales. Dassault will be more than eager to make a sale and India can negotiate a good price.

Obviously, inflation has to be taken into account. But you get the picture. Any other MMRCA type will cost more than a second tranche of Rafales.

asbchakri · Post by **asbchakri** » 15 Sep 2020 02:33

yeah another 2 squadrons are always on the cards and I really hope its not going to be a new type of aircraft.

ManuJ · Post by **ManuJ** » 15 Sep 2020 02:33

vivek_ahuja wrote:So Indian internal politics should override strategic national security decisions?

Make no mistake about this, additional 36 Rafales will cost so many additional USD Billions that they will effectively cripple all strategic home-grown product acquisitions for years to come.

Ummm, no, they are not mutually exclusive.
Not to say that petty internal politics hasn't derailed national security issues in the past. Bofors and HDW are just two examples.

India will acquire the 36 additional Rafales as well as 200+ LCAs.
Rafale will constitute India's leading edge until the MCA takes over.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 15 Sep 2020 02:41

It is very unlikely that another 36 Rafale will be sold for $5-6 billion. The table leaves off much details. Even then it is too expensive at more than 3 times the cost of Tejas Mk1A. I can believe maintenance infrastructure within India can be setup to be lower cost than Dassault.

The FrAF (108) and Navy have around 180 total. The original contract with India for 36 included an option for 18 more. It is best the IAF exercise that option and not get into requirements creep to force the GoI’s hand and rework another contract creating cost and delays. The Rafale should be done at that time with no more. It simply doesn’t have the economies of scale for as much further improvement as Dassault themselves are designing the next generation manned combat aircraft to be delivered starting 2035. With 54 Rafales, the IAF will have half as many as the FrAF themselves.

asbchakri · Post by **asbchakri** » 15 Sep 2020 02:46

Rakesh wrote:See this chart below Mort-ji. Another 36 will come to $3.8 billion + $1.2 billion. So $5 billion sub-total for planes and weapons. A good chunk of the ISE is software updates, but there is hardware as well. For argument's sake, add half the cost of the ISE and you get a grand total of $6 billion for another 36 Rafales. Dassault will be more than eager to make a sale and India can negotiate a good price.

Obviously, inflation has to be taken into account. But you get the picture. Any other MMRCA type will cost more than a second tranche of Rafales.

^^Good Info

So just curious, what would be the breakup cost for 83 Tejas to be procured?

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 15 Sep 2020 02:53

asbchakri wrote:^^Good Info

So just curious, what would be the breakup cost for 83 Tejas to be procured?

This is what I found. Someone better informed can provide more clarity.

Deal for 83 Tejas fighters passes bureaucratic hurdle
https://www.flightglobal.com/fixed-wing ... 96.article
19 March 2020

The procurement cost of $5.3 billion covers 73 single-seat Tejas Mk1As and 10 twin-seat trainers in addition to sensors, weapons and associated equipment and spares support from HAL for a period of two years, a company official tells FlightGlobal.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 15 Sep 2020 03:00

Mort Walker wrote:It is very unlikely that another 36 Rafale will be sold for $5-6 billion. The table leaves off much details. Even then it is too expensive at more than 3 times the cost of Tejas Mk1A. I can believe maintenance infrastructure within India can be setup to be lower cost than Dassault.

The Tejas Mk1 and Mk1A variants are not designed to do what the Rafale F3R is designed to do. Two different aircraft that serve two different needs, however both are equally important. The Mk1 and Mk1A will be the fighter for the IAF in triple digits. The Rafale is-break-down-the-door and strategic (i.e. nuclear) strike. One cannot replace the other, rather they will work alongside each other.

If another 36 Rafales are acquired and the cost works out to be more than $6 billion, it will be because of some offset that cannot be published in the open domain or another variant (i.e. F4). Those are the only reasons. Every other variable (weapons, tools, infrastructure, base unit cost, etc) is known to the GOI and the IAF. And equally important, Dassault understands that fact as well. Apart from inflation, Dassault has to provide a valid reason for the cost increase.

Mort Walker wrote:The FrAF (108) and Navy have around 180 total. The original contract with India for 36 included an option for 18 more. It is best the IAF exercise that option and not get into requirements creep to force the GoI’s hand and rework another contract creating cost and delays. The Rafale should be done at that time with no more. It simply doesn’t have the economies of scale for as much further improvement as Dassault themselves are designing the next generation manned combat aircraft to be delivered starting 2035. With 54 Rafales, the IAF will have half as many as the FrAF themselves.

There is no option for any additional aircraft other than the 36 ordered. Any additional aircraft - 18, 36 or whatever other number - has to be negotiated all over.

asbchakri · Post by **asbchakri** » 15 Sep 2020 05:20

Rakesh wrote: This is what I found. Someone better informed can provide more clarity.

Deal for 83 Tejas fighters passes bureaucratic hurdle
https://www.flightglobal.com/fixed-wing ... 96.article
19 March 2020

The procurement cost of $5.3 billion covers 73 single-seat Tejas Mk1As and 10 twin-seat trainers in addition to sensors, weapons and associated equipment and spares support from HAL for a period of two years, a company official tells FlightGlobal.

Thank you.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 15 Sep 2020 09:00

Rakesh wrote: The Tejas Mk1 and Mk1A variants are not designed to do what the Rafale F3R is designed to do. Two different aircraft that serve two different needs, however both are equally important. The Mk1 and Mk1A will be the fighter for the IAF in triple digits. The Rafale is-break-down-the-door and strategic (i.e. nuclear) strike. One cannot replace the other, rather they will work alongside each other.

If another 36 Rafales are acquired and the cost works out to be more than $6 billion, it will be because of some offset that cannot be published in the open domain or another variant (i.e. F4). Those are the only reasons. Every other variable (weapons, tools, infrastructure, base unit cost, etc) is known to the GOI and the IAF. And equally important, Dassault understands that fact as well. Apart from inflation, Dassault has to provide a valid reason for the cost increase.

There is no option for any additional aircraft other than the 36 ordered. Any additional aircraft - 18, 36 or whatever other number - has to be negotiated all over.

Admiralji,

The Tejas Mk1/Mk1A are capable aircraft which can do 80% of the Rafale F3R duties. On top of that, the logistics chain is within India. If there is a shortage of parts, a suitable form-fit-function substitute will be found quickly in country instead of France, US, Russia or elsewhere. For every one Rafale, you can have 3-4 Tejas. Had 2 squadrons been available in Feb. 2019, the PAF would dare not have crossed the LoC.

The strategic strike combat aircraft is the Su-30MKI which can carry nuclear tip Brahmos. The IAF has some 300 of these, and more than likely at least a couple of squadrons can carry the Brahmos. All of a sudden why is the Rafale the strategic strike combat aircraft simply because it has more range? Even the Shaguar was suppose to carry deep strike weapons, but was never used in any real mission AFAIK.

I have nothing against the Rafale, but it is too expensive for ANY country. It costs more than the F-35 which is a true 5th generation fighter aircraft and from Lot 14, LM has the cost below $78 million/each at flyaway prices. It is less than half the cost of the Rafale and some 478 have been made by now and India is buying lots weapon systems from the US.

For $15 billion, the IAF could have had nearly 180 F-35A or 360 Tejas Mk1A.

The sub $80 million unit recurring flyaway cost for an F-35 represents an integrated acquisition price for the 5th Generation Weapon System. With embedded sensors and targeting pods, this F-35 unit price includes items that add additional procurement and sustainment costs to legacy 4th Generation aircraft.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 15 Sep 2020 18:38

Mort Walker wrote:
For $15 billion, the IAF could have had nearly 180 F-35A or 360 Tejas Mk1A.
The sub $80 million unit recurring flyaway cost for an F-35 represents an integrated acquisition price for the 5th Generation Weapon System. With embedded sensors and targeting pods, this F-35 unit price includes items that add additional procurement and sustainment costs to legacy 4th Generation aircraft.

Halve that number and then some. Total FMS acquisition cost is probably going to be around $150-$160 Million @ Lot 14 and beyond. Perhaps a bit lower when they go into FRP. Still cheaper than the Rafale especially when weapons are factored in, but for $15 Billion, as a new FMS customer, you are looking at between 60 and 80 aircraft, with associated weapons, PBL, and user specific changes and other specified infrastructure cost.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 15 Sep 2020 20:22

Mort Walker wrote:The Tejas Mk1/Mk1A are capable aircraft which can do 80% of the Rafale F3R duties. On top of that, the logistics chain is within India. If there is a shortage of parts, a suitable form-fit-function substitute will be found quickly in country instead of France, US, Russia or elsewhere.

There will be 123 Tejas Mk1/Mk1As eventually in service. 123 aircraft all powered by a GE F404 engine. Tejas Mk2 will have a GE F414 engine. Around 200 are rumoured to be acquired. Tomorrow if the tap is turned off by massa, how long can we sustain that fleet? No serviceable engine and that plane will not fly. The IAF already operates American fighters. It is called the Tejas. Come to think of it, massa does not even have to turn the tap off. Just state that they will. The engine is the heart of the plane and that part of the logistics chain comes from massa.

Which engine can you can find a suitable form-fit-function substitute in place of the GE F404? How long do you foresee flight certification of said engine to take? What would be the cost of re-engining the entire fleet of Tejas? What would be the CAPEX hit of the acquisition of said engine? Assuming all of this goes smoothly and that is a big IF, let us not forget our reliable Babu and our lack-of-foresight politicians who will throw a spanner in the works at any point in the process. That train is never late and you know that.

Mort Walker wrote:For every one Rafale, you can have 3-4 Tejas.

For every one Mirage 2000, the IAF could have three MiG-29s or two Su-30MKIs. Yet, it was among that meager fleet of 49 Mirage 2000s that the IAF picked to strike at Balakot. Not a single MiG-29 or Su-30MKI was used in the strike at Balakot. That job fell to the Mirage 2000. The Su-30s were used as top cover at Balakot, despite the fact that the Rambha carries way more ordnance than the Mirage 2000.

For every one Rafale, there very well could be 3 - 4 Tejas. What point are those aircraft, if they are unable to fly though because the engine in question could possibly be under sanction? I am not saying that is definitely going to happen, but that scenario does exist. In the words of Saab's marketing team ---> "A combat aircraft is only effective, when she is in the air." Otherwise, she is one expensive paperweight!

Why is the IAF insisting on a local engine for the AMCA, after the first two units? The GE F414 turbofan is one amazing machine. Reliable, powerful and certainly not a gas guzzler. But yet the IAF wants a local engine, which I am sure will take time to match the GE F414. Why?

Mort Walker wrote:Had 2 squadrons been available in Feb. 2019, the PAF would dare not have crossed the LoC.

FOC was handed over only in Feb 2019. Production of the second batch of 20 aircraft has just begun.

Had I invested in Apple stock in the late 70s, I would have been a billionaire today. Or perhaps into Google in the late 90s. But I did not. Does that mean I should be despondent of my future because of it?

The past cannot be changed by wishing it. The present and future can --> Tejas has already been deployed on the Western border as per recent reports. And you are correct --- the PAF will not dare to cross the LOC now.

Mort Walker wrote:The strategic strike combat aircraft is the Su-30MKI which can carry nuclear tip Brahmos. The IAF has some 300 of these, and more than likely at least a couple of squadrons can carry the Brahmos. All of a sudden why is the Rafale the strategic strike combat aircraft simply because it has more range? Even the Shaguar was suppose to carry deep strike weapons, but was never used in any real mission AFAIK.

Saar, you are well aware of the entire MMRCA 1.0 saga. It ended with the technical down-select of the Rafale and Eurofighter on 27 April 2011 and with the L1 down-select on 31 January 2012. The contest was formally started in 2007, but was in the works since 2001. A contract was signed in September 2016, the first batch was handed over to India in Sept 2019 and flew into India in July 2020. 19+ years to acquire combat aircraft. That is our procurement system in all its wonderful bureaucratic glory.

Rafale was the choice of the IAF in MMRCA 1.0 and a decision supported by two different governments. Now if Su-30MKI was good enough, as Manohar Parrikar stated, then perhaps the GOI should have cancelled the deal altogether and stayed with the Rambha. That did not happen, did it? Or if they had to restart the entire process (as is happening now), a delay would take even longer. One can play this cat-and-mouse game, but what is the point really? It is the IAF that does not want additional Su-30MKI units, above and over what they have now. The 12 on order is for attrition replacements. So how does the IAF fill in the gap to get to 42?

The IAF has bought the Rafale with base infrastructure invested to support two squadrons each at Hasimara and Ambala. That is the reality staring at the GOI and IAF right now. That reality cannot be changed. The GOI is fully within her rights to ignore that investment made and go in for another type. But we have yet to see that occur. And apart from cost, what game changing technology is present on any of those other aircraft in MMRCA 2.0 that supersedes what the the Rafale can do? I am confident that there are areas, but the question for the IAF to ask is this --> Is it worth a re-investment of base infrastructure, weapons, tools, spares, etc?

And even on the issue of cost, acquiring two squadrons of another type in MMRCA 2.0 will be as expensive as the Rafale deal. Because investments has to be made all over again, that has already been made via the Rafale. I keep emphasizing on two squadrons, because that is the bare minimum that the IAF acquires in a first batch. The Mirage 2000 acquisition of the 1980s, is a good example.

Mort Walker wrote:I have nothing against the Rafale, but it is too expensive for ANY country. It costs more than the F-35 which is a true 5th generation fighter aircraft and from Lot 14, LM has the cost below $78 million/each at flyaway prices. It is less than half the cost of the Rafale and some 478 have been made by now and India is buying lots weapon systems from the US.

For $15 billion, the IAF could have had nearly 180 F-35A or 360 Tejas Mk1A.

In the current geopolitical scenario, India is not going to get the F-35. India is stubbornly insisting on the S-400 and massa is stubbornly insisting that the S-400 purchase is a poor decision by India and "possible" sanctions could be imposed via CAATSA. Why should the GOTUS (and Lockheed Martin) jeopardize the F-35 by selling it to India to operate alongside the S-400? Massa would be risking the F-35 not just for themselves, but also for all the other international customers that operate her. Is that a worthwhile risk for massa to take?

The F-35 is a superb piece of machinery and represents the top tier of massa technology. She is any day better than the Rafale. That is a no contest decision. But in the absence of the F-35 coming to India, do these arguments (F-35 is cheaper than Rafale, F-35 costs half than Rafale, etc - while correct when viewed in isolation) have any foundation to stand on?

kit · Post by **kit** » 15 Sep 2020 20:29

Also one would have to factor in the rate of obsolescence for a 4th gen fighter vs a 5th gen fighter !!

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 15 Sep 2020 20:37

kit wrote:Also one would have to factor in the rate of obsolescence for a 4th gen fighter vs a 5th gen fighter !!

A rate that has to be commensurate with what your enemy has.

Is China's 5th generation technology anywhere close to the Americans? Is it honestly that easy to build a 5th generation fighter? Slap on a few sharp angles and you get VLO? Xerox copy a F-35, call it J-31 and it becomes on par with F-35?

The F-35 represents hundreds of billions of dollars of investment and is backed by companies in massa that have been working on VLO for decades. The foundation of F-35 lies in F-22, F-117, B-2, etc, etc, etc.

Who are the Chinese fooling with the J-20 and J-31? Let's get real.

asbchakri · Post by **asbchakri** » 15 Sep 2020 21:50

I guess there is no point in discussing on things that we cannot change. The deal has gone through, we have the Rafale in our inventory. The IAF chose it and they have their reasons that we do not fully know, at least not me. They are the people who have to fly them to defend the country and they are happy about it. We have to move on. As for follow on orders, it's again up to them. Each of us have our own opinion on it and I respect that.

As for the LCA, we will get them and in good numbers, whenever that happens. India cannot afford to not to after all the effort and amount spent on it unlike some other country. I just hope we can get our own Engine for it and not depend on GE. As per wiki Snecma will help in production of the Kaveri by sharing M88's technology, maybe that is also one of the reason for going with Rafale.

India is finally moving from just buying stuff to building them, LCA, LCH, LUH and many others. Look at our Navy, it is a very good example. We will always have some amount of imported stuff in our inventory for some more time to come until we overcome it and we are gradually moving towards that goal. We cannot wait until that happens, we have to get what is best for us in the meantime. I completely agree with everyone on the politics involved in Defence matters, I just wish that changes.

Also Rafale is a 4.5 generation not 4.

Vivek K · Post by **Vivek K** » 15 Sep 2020 22:00

Getting to reality - a nation of 1.2 billion breathed a collective sigh of relief when 3 Rafale fighters landed in India!

The Rafale is a great plane and there has never been a question about its efficacy. Rather it is the cost and its impact on several maturing programs that puts a tremendous strain all around.

But hey - sab chalta hai! Pass the popcorn!

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 15 Sep 2020 22:17

Vivek K wrote:Getting to reality - a nation of 1.2 billion breathed a collective sigh of relief when 3 Rafale fighters landed in India!

The nation breathed a sigh of relief, because five Rafales landed in India despite RaGa's convulsions. It survived the wrath of Bofors and came out squeaky clean. The nation has every right to breathe a sigh of relief. I certainly did.

On this very forum, it was once mentioned that RaGa is doing yeoman service to the nation by highlighting the fraud in the Rafale deal.

A "supposed" fraud that was cleared of any wrongdoing *TWICE* by the Supreme Court of India. A "Drop-the-Mic" moment

LakshmanPST · Post by **LakshmanPST** » 15 Sep 2020 23:29

Mort Walker wrote:Had 2 squadrons been available in Feb. 2019, the PAF would dare not have crossed the LoC.

I guess Pakis would have attacked that day whether we had Tejas or not...
And I'd even go a step ahead and bet that they would have attacked even if we had Rafale...
May be their strategy would have changed a bit, but the attack would have come definitely...

It was a case of local numerical superiority for a few minutes...