Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (15-11-2017)

[g.sarkar]

On a side note, in apartheid South Africa, mainland Chinese were classified as "yellow". But since the Taiwanese had put in a lot of investments in SA, they were classified as "white".

Trust the white man to be ever cognisant of his material comforts.

Boss, If my memory serves me correctly (memory is the second thing to go with age), the Japanese were considered as "white" in apartheid South Africa. The Chinese were considered as "honorary" whites.
Gautam

[sanjaykumar]

To quote myself, if the Congolese had money the most popular cosmetic surgical procedure in LA would be alar augmentation (for more prominent nasal flaring).

[darshan]

chinese alert. Can't trust them and the fact that lot of this chinese companies are finding it easier to expand within India should be of worry. One should have minimum presence of enemy on soil from business to tourism.

Motorola In Talks With India’s Lava International And Dixon Technologies For Manufacturing Of Smartphones Worth $1 Billion
https://swarajyamag.com/insta/motorola- ... -1-billion
...
If the deal materialises, Motorola Mobility would become the first Chinese smartphone maker to partner with an Indian player to domestically manufacture smartphones in India. Also, Motorola Mobility plans to export most of the India-made smartphones, which would make it the second Chinese player after Xiaomi to turn India into an export base.
...

[darshan]

At India-Denmark virtual summit, PM Modi calls for diversification of global supply chains
https://www.wionews.com/india-news/at-i ... ins-330900
...
He said, "COVID-19 has shown us, that global supply chain can't be dependent on a single source and it has been risky". Adding, "We are working with Australia and Japan for diversification of the supply chain. Other like-minded nations can join us"
...

[KLNMurthy]

x-posted from mil-forum
viewtopic.php?p=2462533#p2462533

...
Why did PRC do this?

1. Was it for territorial gain? Only 24 Sq Kms belies that. Depsang is not occupied by PLA though they stop patrolling. We have other means of doing patrolling there.
2. Was it for emphasizing their 1959 Claim Line? Not true. They are already ahead of their claim line
3. Chinese vulnerability? PLA doesn't feel vulnerable at all, they have enough buffer, we do not have much means of recapturing those areas. G219 interception is impossible
4. A reaction to abolition of Art 370/35A? China knows we are not its threat in Ladakh. Even Pakistan has not moved its strike corps.
5. Two-front war? PLA would not do that because it would be a dent on its image as a 'superpower' especially when engaged with the US on that score.
6. Is it to threaten DSDBO road? Cannot be because they are not on the ridges at Galwan to do so. They have now even gone back from there.
7. Was it to stop India-US proximity? PRC would have known that a military threat like this would only bring India-US even closer. Cannot be the reason
8. Was it to convert LAC into the LoC as in our western front? India can easily take this cost though it is an unnecessary burden. In Siachen we spend Rs. 5 Crores a day. Neither India nor China can occupy the entire 800 Kms of ridge line, unlike in LoC. There is no terrorist infiltration unlike in LoC. If PLA occupies some heights, then we will do the same and the game is endless.
9. Is it to show to the rest of the world that 'China has arrived'? May be, we may not know.

But, there could be a different and more plausible reason for what had happened and that is the NWMA (Non-War Military Activities) doctrine of the PLA. This is to use coercive threats below the threshold of a war to achieve its very tactical objectives.

...

I have to say with deep regret that this analysis is depressing and infuriating to read, in that it sounds clueless. It is not asking the right questions at all, missing the big picture entirely. (I know it's not yours SSridhar, and you are just sharing it).

The China Unscripted video with the Canadian lady guest reminded us that the Chinese will relentlessly pursue Mao's palm + 5 fingers goal across time, and from the Chinese perspective, these incidents should be seen as small incremental efforts that have some kind of rationale, which is irrelevant in the context of the big picture. The effort paid off to some extent, but failed in many other ways. No matter (in the Chinese view), because they will simply try something else, somewhere else, on some other front (like the BIF or TSP or Oli's Nepal or Bhutan or cyberwarfare or paid negative coverage in NYT, take your pick, possibilities are endless) till something(s) succeeds.

Any so-called analysis that devotes no time at all to this big picture, instead focussing solely on the minute details of what happened in this particular case and why, is worthless. It is nothing more than a list of head-scratchers like the quoted post had. What value does such a list add in itself, exactly, for the security of India, its people and civilization?

It is telling that an outside student of India-China, a nobody, a "mere" reporter, unlike all the heavyweight strategists on our side, is able to bring this essential clarity and coherence to the understanding of what is happening, while our people are scratching their heads, going "Bwhy they are doing this onlee? Whatta puzzle, no? Inscrutable Chinese, what, what?"

It's the Himalayan massif, stupid.

It is perfectly clear to me that nothing short of a long-term commitment on our part, lasting as long as the rest of Kaliyuga, to do to China what Lord Rama did to Ravana's Lanka Empire--break its back so that it won't stand up again, will keep us safe from the evil dragon.

[KLNMurthy]

x-posted from mil-forum
viewtopic.php?p=2462569#p2462569

Ok, I read this rant and am still "head-scratching". Cleo Pascal says that the Indian reaction to Chinese hegemony, is in many respects, ahead of the rest of the world. She particularly singles out 3 Indian think-tanks by name and recommends that people go to the source directly since these participation in those erstwhile closed groups is now open in the Covid-19 world. Does this suggest that Indian strategic thinkers, for whom you have shown such disdain in this post, are clueless?

Secondly, the fundamental conclusion from Col. Dinny's analysis, as recapped here, was that the Chinese were doing exactly what you attributed to Cleo Pascal's insight - pushing claims as much as they could, short of war. In Cleo's words, this is their strategy to show progress on a numerical ranking system for the benefit of the CPC. He arrived at this conclusion using a rhetorical device that used sub-themes to reject those hypotheses. What's so hard to understand?

I get your point.

However.

“Everyone else is doing worse than us” is not even a consolation prize in an existential war. Survival of a nation is not graded on a curve.

“Clueless” is admittedly a harsh epithet. I’ll use “depressingly inadequate” if that’s less offensive. I say that because, we should understand that the Chinese goal with respect to India is to secure their southern, Himalayan border for all time to their satisfaction, at our eternal expense. “Teaching us our place” is a psychological stratagem to that end. It is also an integral component of the outcome that the Chinese desire: deep material domination of India, made durable and permanent by the psychological element.

We Indians are a proud people, we react angrily to a foreign power “putting us in our place.” That is a good thing, but depressingly inadequate. It is inadequate because we focus our fighting on assuaging the injury to our egos, and neglect the material aspect. That means we are handing the enemy a powerful tool to control us: massage or wound our egos as the occasion requires. All the while, they remain focused on accumulating what is ours: territory, economic levers, political autonomy.

It is depressing because it is basically colonialism, we have seen this movie multiple times, and should have learned by now. The British flattered when they had to, crushed our spirits when they could, and took over what is ours. Before them the Mughals held off the mighty and fearsome warriors of India by tossing a few ego-flattering crumbs their way, and proceeded to plunder and hollow out India at their leisure, utilising a newly-created class of happy collaborators for the purpose. As did the British. (Both classes of collaborators are still very much with us, and flourishing, eating away at India.)

Cleo Paskal was introducing the Indian strategic community to a largely-ignorant podcast audience. She should not be expected to rant like me on BRF. She is a third-party observer & reporter. She has no skin in the actual game between India and China, her “game” is information-vending only.

Even so, she made perfectly clear what should have been perfectly clear to us (and isn’t, because we still talk as though China’s colonizing project and its military adventurism are separate phenomena; indeed we hardly recognize their colonizing project for what it is.). Her crediting the Indian strategic community for their contribution to *her* game doesn’t mean that the community is doing a good-enough job of contributing to *our* game. It doesn’t mean they aren’t in general, either, but the list posted by SSridhar was an instance of obliviousness to the nature of our game. (SSridhar has said that there was more to the conversation than that list, and I accept that, noting that I reacted to what was posted, which had an exclusive focus on analyzing in detail the motivations of their taking this particular step, not a particularly useful thing in my opinion.)

[KLNMurthy]

Quoted from mil-forum to give context to the previous 2 crossposts:

viewtopic.php?p=2462031#p2462031

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SvhMLisRokA
#86 China's "5-Fingers" Approach to Strangling India | Cleo Paskal

Not sure if this has been posted before. Good to get a non-Indian perspective on Chinese thought process.

[DavidD]

If you can't figure out why China "did" it, then maybe your premise is wrong. I know it's an Indian board, but what if India is the aggressor here? What would be India's motive?

Many here often point toward the possibility of the CCP starting external troubles to deflect from internal issues, but it seems unlikely right now with China having by far the best economic performance of all major economies as well as a concurrent upswing of confidence in the government by the people as per multiple independent surveys. Could Modi be attempting to deflect attention away from the exact opposite, that is, the worst economic performance of all major economies?

[kit]

interesting thought above., Chinese bribes coming through Russia for India to buy the S400 and so prevent India getting American high tech !?

[sudarshan]

Interesting thought indeed. David ji, India has a choice of four or five weaker neighbors to pick fights with and deflect domestic attention. So Modi picked the strongest budding superpower neighbor and did "aggression" against it, at a time when that neighbor has a roaring economy and India does not? Or - I see - Modi fell for American promises of support. Like that Georgian idiot against Russia.

Do you need to go looking for "India's motive?" How about - decades of nuclearizing and arming Pak; grabbing Indian territory and building roads through it; string of pearls; shielding India's wanted terrorists; adding on Indian territory to "One-China" maps; salami slicing....

If you think Modi is deflecting attention from internal issues, then you have some explaining to do, about why India just had the busiest ever parliament session with multiple "controversial" bills being made into laws (all under Modi's guidance), and why the biggest ever water supply project is going on at a frenetic pace without missing a beat.

[Suraj]

Maybe, but not all theories are suited to this thread. For example, another theory is that Martians have invaded earth and are using mind control techniques on Xi and Modi (Trump doesn't need any - he's nuts as it is) to precipitate war.

Theories like yours and the one mentioned in this post aren't suited here.

[KLNMurthy]

If you can't figure out why China "did" it, then maybe your premise is wrong. I know it's an Indian board, but what if India is the aggressor here? What would be India's motive?

Many here often point toward the possibility of the CCP starting external troubles to deflect from internal issues, but it seems unlikely right now with China having by far the best economic performance of all major economies as well as a concurrent upswing of confidence in the government by the people as per multiple independent surveys. Could Modi be attempting to deflect attention away from the exact opposite, that is, the worst economic performance of all major economies?

I have read some of your earlier posts and you sounded fairly intelligent. What happened here?

[sanjaykumar]

Best economic performance? By which data? CCP boasts or empiric data?

I would examine goods shipments, oil consumption, pollution levels, warehousing of automobiles, rail traffic, lending rates, housing prices before relying on CCP data.

For example, in China cars sold is not the same as cars bought. Post 2008 recession, autos were bought by public dollars and warehoused. But certainly the numbers looked optimistic.

[Suraj]

I have read some of your earlier posts and you sounded fairly intelligent. What happened here?

Needs a quick 50c for parking meter, perhaps ? We don't all carry small change all the time.

[SSridhar]

With eye on China, MEA brings Indo-Pacific, Asean policies under one unit - Indrani Bagchi, ToI

Keeping China in focus, India is bringing together its Indo-Pacific and Asean policies under a single unit, with the ministry of external affairs creating a new vertical, which includes a new Oceania territorial division with Australia at its centre, as well as including the Indo-Pacific and Asean divisions within it.

The Unit should be called Indo-Pacific, more appropriately, rather than Oceania which has a different geographic connotation. Also, one wouldn't want to signal the ASEAN that the CoG has shifted to Canberra.

[sanjaykumar]

What I would like to see are cell phone mobility data for Chinese working age population. Are the phones reporting movement from bedroom to kitchen or perhaps the park? What is the population not tranlocating to workplaces in the morning? Or should we take CCP unemployment numbers at face value?

[KLNMurthy]

I have read some of your earlier posts and you sounded fairly intelligent. What happened here?

Needs a quick 50c for parking meter, perhaps ? We don't all carry small change all the time.

chavanni-athanni ka maal, as they say.

[dnivas]

If you can't figure out why China "did" it, then maybe your premise is wrong. I know it's an Indian board, but what if India is the aggressor here? What would be India's motive?

Many here often point toward the possibility of the CCP starting external troubles to deflect from internal issues, but it seems unlikely right now with China having by far the best economic performance of all major economies as well as a concurrent upswing of confidence in the government by the people as per multiple independent surveys. Could Modi be attempting to deflect attention away from the exact opposite, that is, the worst economic performance of all major economies?

I have read some of your earlier posts and you sounded fairly intelligent. What happened here?

And according to him, he is actually a doc in NYC area. Imagine a TYTA having all the unfiltered info in the world about China and still making these glaringly unsound allegations, the plight of a SYTA chinese in inland china. The amount of brainwashing that must have gone out to short circuit the brain.

[KLNMurthy]

India-China Conflict Is Bad for the Planet, By NITISH PAHWA

Another chavanni-athanni specimen for your edification, also begging Unkli liberalissimo public to please please scold India no? Becoz environment and also starving Indians dying off.

India’s blowback has put the subcontinent in way in over its head. Its GDP is one-fifth that of China’s, and it faces a staggering trade deficit with its neighbor that has quadrupled over the past half-decade. While India does provide quite a few raw materials to China, the latter’s companies export many, many, many essential things in turn. Just a few items on that list: solar panels, nuclear reactors, semiconductors, wind energy generators, electric vehicles, LED lighting chips, lithium ion battery cells, and bicycles. Not to mention India’s new blockade would also affect Chinese investment in its rapid rail systems. In other words, the very things India uses often, boasts about, and needs to achieve its climate goals.

his should be a matter of concern for everyone alarmed about the planet’s future, and particularly to those looking to China and India to be the world’s climate leaders as the U.S.’s case looks increasingly hopeless—and who hope India will bounce back after its decimation by COVID.


In an ideal world, the nations would engage in diplomacy, working together on making the future’s climate less dire. India could then reallocate its burned-up finances toward rebuilding its shattered state instead of stockpiling arms and attempting in vain to construct a new, wholesale manufacturing base. The lockdown and ensuing drop in smog and pollution allowed Indians to literally envision a cleaner, more sustainable future, and that could have translated into innovative legislative and action, like it has in Seattle and Paris in spite of their deep recessions. But that’s not likely to happen soon, and even if there’s no war, India’s bellicosity will have the effect of its population dying off nonetheless, whether from disease, or storms, or heat, or lack of essential goods, or starvation. It doesn’t have to be this way.

[darshan]

chinese by producing all sorts of garbage at throw away prices have essentially destroyed planet earth and caused colossal damage to the environment. Any destruction of china is a good thing for the whole world.

[pankajs]

India-China Conflict Is Bad for the Planet, By NITISH PAHWA

Another chavanni-athanni specimen for your edification, also begging Unkli liberalissimo public to please please scold India no? Becoz environment and also starving Indians dying off.

India’s blowback has put the subcontinent in way in over its head. Its GDP is one-fifth that of China’s, and it faces a staggering trade deficit with its neighbor that has quadrupled over the past half-decade. While India does provide quite a few raw materials to China, the latter’s companies export many, many, many essential things in turn. Just a few items on that list: solar panels, nuclear reactors, semiconductors, wind energy generators, electric vehicles, LED lighting chips, lithium ion battery cells, and bicycles. Not to mention India’s new blockade would also affect Chinese investment in its rapid rail systems. In other words, the very things India uses often, boasts about, and needs to achieve its climate goals.

Clueless piece ...

1. The reference to "past half-decade" is an indirect reference to Modi era starting 2014. Trying to hide behind generalities when the concern is with Modi era but specifically Modi.

2. I am not sure of the exact numbers BUT I am sure that the India/China trade deficit has NOT doubled let alone quadrupled under Modi's watch. A straight-out Lie!

3. His definition of "essential things" is very wrong when it includes stuff like "solar panels, nuclear reactors, bicycles, etc". EVERY thing on the list is non-essential except for semiconductors.

4. IIRC, China does NOT export "nuclear reactors" to India.

5. There is hardly any "Chinese investment in its rapid rail systems". It does bit for construction & Coach supply contract to the Metro systems but those are NOT considered as "investment". There is hardly any Chinese involvement in "Rapid rail system" of India.

Rest is rhetorical stuff. Wonder how such fact-free farts gets past the editors and gets published.

Ok ..Got it! Looks like a Chinese hit job published under and Indian name in exchange for some moolah. With liberal usage of words and phrases such as "Sinophobia", "India needs business with China more than it realizes", "attempting in vain to construct a new, wholesale manufacturing base", "India’s bellicosity" it is clear.

[darshan]

This land of the viruses needs to be kept away from other civilizations and in isolation.

Another Virus From China May Spread Disease In India As ICMR Finds Antibodies In Samples From Karnataka
https://swarajyamag.com/insta/another-v ... -karnataka

[nam]

Many here often point toward the possibility of the CCP starting external troubles to deflect from internal issues, but it seems unlikely right now with China having by far the best economic performance of all major economies as well as a concurrent upswing of confidence in the government by the people as per multiple independent surveys. Could Modi be attempting to deflect attention away from the exact opposite, that is, the worst economic performance of all major economies?

So the man, who just won the biggest mandate in the world in 2019 election and a majority not seen in India for 3 decades, decides to cause a standoff with China in 7-8 months since the election? People in India are so dumb to realise an "economic meltdown" AFTER the election?

Let's assume he did it. May be you can then explain to us here, why is India then insisting on return to status quo? where both side get to patrol to their claim line?

Also do explain to us, why the satellite images are showing Chinese positions on Finger 4, which were not present earlier? Unless satellite images are an Indian conspiracy as well?

[nam]

The issue the Chinese are having is that our media, coupled with openly available satellite imagery has been able to drive the narrative very hard..

Poor GT, has been blowing it's backside to compete. PLA and Chinese leadership wanted the whole incident to be a quiet affairs, to effectively blackmail India...

What is even funnier is that the regular Chinese is seeing a potential war and have no clue what's going on.All the news are coming from our media . WTC tried to get a leg up on the narrative by announcing about shots fired in the middle of the night! Meant for US timings..

[sudarshan]

Y'know, there were some unpatriotic posts from our friend on some other threads, which surprised me at the time. Maybe the commissar is now breathing down his neck on those, so maybe we should go easy . See Suraj's post on the mil thread on this.

[Nihat]

Now china can openly announce that it does not recognize the UT of Ladakh. The least we should do in time is an official recognition of Taiwan and noises with respect to Tibet.

[hnair]

DavidD is whiffing Fentanyl again - Why would PM Modi use the innocent Xitler as his prison-b, when he has a more convenient opposition for doing that and try deflect if he wants to? Plus usually dictators start wars when his economy is doing well - due to too much belief in their invincibiliy. Xitler has joined the likes of Saddam, Idi Amin, that Saudi prince in Yemen and a few other African dictators who did just that and came out as losers.

This sort of rubbish works if those Indo-China Sea 9-lines, Taiwan, NoKo nuclear smuggling, terror-support in UN etc is not there in your news feed

[DavidD]

Interesting thought indeed. David ji, India has a choice of four or five weaker neighbors to pick fights with and deflect domestic attention. So Modi picked the strongest budding superpower neighbor and did "aggression" against it, at a time when that neighbor has a roaring economy and India does not? Or - I see - Modi fell for American promises of support. Like that Georgian idiot against Russia.

Do you need to go looking for "India's motive?" How about - decades of nuclearizing and arming Pak; grabbing Indian territory and building roads through it; string of pearls; shielding India's wanted terrorists; adding on Indian territory to "One-China" maps; salami slicing....

If you think Modi is deflecting attention from internal issues, then you have some explaining to do, about why India just had the busiest ever parliament session with multiple "controversial" bills being made into laws (all under Modi's guidance), and why the biggest ever water supply project is going on at a frenetic pace without missing a beat.

I think you make some good points, picking on Pakistan for example would seem to make a lot more sense. I agree that there are plenty of legitimate grievances India has toward China, but why now? It's not like Pakistan nuclearized yesterday, for example.

I think your suggestion makes more sense than mine. What changed now is that the US is much more antagonistic toward China and is as atively seeking partners in doing so. Perhaps there were promises or hints of American support, and there may yet be some that we're not aware of and won't be until further down the line. Perhaps the recent news of India not finalizing the ban on Huawei is Modi's way to signal to the Americans that they better keep up their end of the deal?

[DavidD]

I have read some of your earlier posts and you sounded fairly intelligent. What happened here?

And according to him, he is actually a doc in NYC area. Imagine a TYTA having all the unfiltered info in the world about China and still making these glaringly unsound allegations, the plight of a SYTA chinese in inland china. The amount of brainwashing that must have gone out to short circuit the brain.

I've moved to California now. Interesting that you should bring this up, but my experiences show that overseas Chinese are actually MORE patriotic. There's a joke going around the Chinese community that when they're in China, all they do is crap on the CCP, but when they're overseas, all they do is defend them.

[sanjaykumar]

Perspicacious, DavidD.

[putnanja]

Interesting thought indeed. David ji, India has a choice of four or five weaker neighbors to pick fights with and deflect domestic attention. So Modi picked the strongest budding superpower neighbor and did "aggression" against it, at a time when that neighbor has a roaring economy and India does not? Or - I see - Modi fell for American promises of support. Like that Georgian idiot against Russia.

Do you need to go looking for "India's motive?" How about - decades of nuclearizing and arming Pak; grabbing Indian territory and building roads through it; string of pearls; shielding India's wanted terrorists; adding on Indian territory to "One-China" maps; salami slicing....

If you think Modi is deflecting attention from internal issues, then you have some explaining to do, about why India just had the busiest ever parliament session with multiple "controversial" bills being made into laws (all under Modi's guidance), and why the biggest ever water supply project is going on at a frenetic pace without missing a beat.

I think you make some good points, picking on Pakistan for example would seem to make a lot more sense. I agree that there are plenty of legitimate grievances India has toward China, but why now? It's not like Pakistan nuclearized yesterday, for example.

I think your suggestion makes more sense than mine. What changed now is that the US is much more antagonistic toward China and is as atively seeking partners in doing so. Perhaps there were promises or hints of American support, and there may yet be some that we're not aware of and won't be until further down the line. Perhaps the recent news of India not finalizing the ban on Huawei is Modi's way to signal to the Americans that they better keep up their end of the deal?

I think you didn't understand Sudarshan's post. He was basically saying there is no reason for India to up the ante with China.

All this started when China decided to build permanent structures in Fingers 5-8 area and deny patrolling access to India which both Indian and China claimed. And they amassed in large numbers in Depsang and Hot springs area which again is disputed and both sides used to patrol. India was responding to these trangressions by China. And after initial disengagement agreement, why did they attack unarmed Indian soldiers with clubs wrapped in barbed wire and kill them?

Please explain why China started it?? All the infrastructure India is building is totally on Indian side of border for which China has never made any claims. And China has already build infrastructure on its side of LAC. So dont give BS reasons like India was building infrastructure on its side of LAC while China has done the same.

If China had not occupied the disputed regions and prevented Indian side from patrolling there which both sides used to do, then you are coming itching for a fight. Why attack Indian troops with clubs?

You are saying you are in california, so you have access to open source info. If you don't use to educate yourself, you are sitting n the CCP bubble. Looks like typical chinese attitude of being too clever by half and trying to deceive others and gloating about it. Shame that they don't teach ethics in China.

India would have been happy to maintain status quo, till the chinese decided they can grab some territory by deceit while world is occupied with the chinese virus they unleashed. Then realized propaganda can only go so far.

[RaviB]

The Chinese living in PRC have to deal with everyday corruption, poor villagers losing their houses, watch their back, watch their mouth, etc. So they often curse the CCP while they live under its visible or invisible iron heel.

The ones who go abroad are usually the ones with at the very least one (distant) relative in the CCP. They're the beneficiaries of the CCP dictatorship. Faced with equality in the west, they miss being superior back home and turn patriotic.

There are no patriots outside the CCP in Tibet or inner Mongolia, or Heilongjiang or Qinghai or the millions of workers living far away from home in some iron cage house in a big city.

[KLNMurthy]

The Chinese living in PRC have to deal with everyday corruption, poor villagers losing their houses, watch their back, watch their mouth, etc. So they often curse the CCP while they live under its visible or invisible iron heel.

The ones who go abroad are usually the ones with at the very least one (distant) relative in the CCP. They're the beneficiaries of the CCP dictatorship. Faced with equality in the west, they miss being superior back home and turn patriotic.

There are no patriots outside the CCP in Tibet or inner Mongolia, or Heilongjiang or Qinghai or the millions of workers living far away from home in some iron cage house in a big city.

Crucial insight RaviB.

A lot of wickedness and aggressiveness can be understood if we realize that, (to paraphrase Orwell), “some animals have a need to be more equal than others.”

[sudarshan]

I think you didn't understand Sudarshan's post. He was basically saying there is no reason for India to up the ante with China.
...

Thank you ji.

DavidD, I was listing out the reasons why your theory made no sense whatsoever. Modi has no reason to deflect attention from domestic issues, on the contrary, he's on a roll, tackling long-standing and thorny domestic issues head-on in the parliament, and it is the opposition which is in disarray. And on the ground, in rural and urban India, one of Modi's pet schemes is going on at a phenomenal pace, and as far as the beneficiaries are concerned, it is a highly visible scheme, one which they will remember and thank him for, for a long long while. Yes, the economy is down, but most people, barring the loonies, realize that it is because of the extraordinary circumstances, and Modi is not at a disadvantage, having to face an election in that circumstance, for years.

Normally I wouldn't be patiently explaining all this, if the Chinese want to misread India, that is to India's advantage. But there are these lurkers, and the Indian ones have this urge to "dhoti-shiver," so it is worthwhile putting things in perspective for them. On top of that, there was something really interesting in your post, which I wanted to point out.

You seem to have immediately caught on to something I said about "American support" and you seem to want me to develop that theme to support *your* theory! That was a sarcastic remark, not a suggestion of mine. That is the way China sees India - as something so inferior, and so conscious of its inferiority, that the only way India would even dream of standing up to China, is if India had an iron-clad guarantee of American support. Which is why I brought in that example of the Georgian nut-job Saakashvili, who tried to take over Russian territory under American tutelage.

Sorry, but that is not the case here. India is confident of standing up to China with no guarantees of any external support. It might seem strange and "arrogant and uppity" to the Chinese, but we see your perception of yourselves, as being next only to the USA and utterly unchallenged by anybody else, as equally uppity.

It seems to me that Chinese planners see any confrontation with their neighbors as a card game. This is what "winning without firing a shot" is all about. China brings in more tanks, planes, men, material, and infrastructure into the game. The other side observes the superior Chinese build-up, takes a fearful glance at its own pathetic counter-build-up, and meekly retreats! Basically, China holds the "trump card," and as soon as the other players see that trump card triumphantly displayed, they throw down their own cards, and it is game over. No actual fighting.

India doesn't see things that way. India sees it as a chess game. You might only have a bishop and a knight, while the opponent rules the board with a queen and other pieces. No matter - you look for a superior position, trap that queen into a pin with your knight, in such a way that the opponent's priority is to save his king, and force a loss on the opponent. India is not going to back down when it sees that "trump card." India is going to manoeuvre for position on the board, so get ready for a real fight, not just a show of cards and a walk-over.

I think this is what has the Chinese planners in a bind right now. First of all, the superiority of the Chinese build-up is itself questionable (both sides are roughly at parity at the LAC). Second of all, this assumption that the opponent will see the folly of confrontation, given his limited forces against the massive Chinese build-up, will not hold with India. India will fight regardless. So China can line up and parade her hardware all she wants, it will not intimidate India. And it has nothing to do with American support, either.

[yensoy]

^^^^ very well stated. There is no American guarantee of anything, never has been. An insurance company will not insure something which is considered to be disputed; America will not insure India's perception of the LAC even in today's climate of better relations with the US. Hard American support has never figured in our military calculus - although we hope we will have access to some information, analyses, studies, training and such matters which btw are reciprocally exchanged.

The second thing is about India's reaction. It's very simple - we will defend our land and our people. Otherwise what's the point of having one of the largest militaries of the world, for which the people of India spend a decent (but not outsided) portion of our GDP? We will fight for what is ours and only what is ours; and for the same reason we have no interest in taking over land which is not ours (even if in many Indian minds that land doesn't belong to you either).

China has been a bully and the only way to stop being bullied is by requesting/telling/compelling/coercing the bully to back off. That doesn't mean you need to become a bully yourself.

[Cyrano]

Excellent posts KLNMurthy, Sudarshan, RaviB et al.

It takes a special kind of muddled thinking to goad a peaceful India focused on its own development objectives into an irritated aggressive posture and erode the goodwill Modi had displayed. Seems like Chinis want to outdo the Pakis in misreading India. And they will meet the same treatment suitably scaled up.

But then again, how can one expect clear thinking from a country that constantly lies to itself and to others? The rot they produce for others eats away into their own self.

There is a far deeper meaning to "Satyameva Jayate" than what it literally signifies.

[hnair]

Overseas Han being patriotic sounds nice on a board, but how does American establishment look at a purported US citizen showing that patriotism on behalf of a communist dictatorship? IIRC, you have to sign in their visa forms that you were never a part of any communist dispensations. Recently, some lady got arrested in Bay Area, for hiding her PLA background etc. Am sure she also must have felt and talked like DavidD.

In contrast, we had the US president gushing at that Houston event, happy in front of thousands of Americans and Indians who cheer for both India and US. Democracies can be confusing, but cheerful

[KLNMurthy]

...

Excellently-stated tutorial on India for possibly-bright but disastrously-closed Chinese minds deleted for brevity.

...

It is telling that you have had to spell it out at this level of detail for a presumably-Han forum member who comes across as intelligent, sophisticated, articulate and reasonably skeptical.

All the stuff you wrote—brilliantly expounded as it is—is glaringly, ridiculously obvious to us Indians.

And yet, for a reader like DavidD, it was so obscure that he missed the obvious sarcasm of your original reference to American support. DavidD is probably as good & receptive as we can expect from Han observers and interlocutors.

Yet I doubt that even this present exposition of yours would lead to him admit his erroneous outlook and revise his stance. There will be polite, and borderline, arguably sensible posts (albeit tinged with compulsive condescension), staying well within the bredators’ red lines, but there’s always probably going to be that tiny yet powerful inner voice of DavidD, going, yeses, but the uppity arrogance of these SDRE barabarians, who think so absurdly high of themselves...

This exchange is a lesson in how war & peace between India & China are going to go.

The TYTA DavidD deserves humble thanks from us SDREs.

[KLNMurthy]

sudarshan, fascinating framing of chess players vs card players. Open, rational deterministic game play vs concealed bluffing and gambling on the odds.

[AshishA]

Btw one thing I don't understand is why do Chinese change their name when they move to western countries. Japanese don't do it. Koreans don't do it. Vietnamese don't do it. So why do Chinese change their name? Maybe DavidD can elaborate. Other members should also pitch in their opinions.