2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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KLNMurthy
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KLNMurthy »

ManSingh wrote:Fresh post, not continuing a chain of posts:

As far as I know ( I can not find relevant articles at a short notice ):

1) Mandi system and it's inherent MSP mechanism work quite well currently. As a history lesson, allowing sale of commodities outside of APMC's has lowered the sale price for farmers and increased costs for farmers. Read about Bihar's experience with maize/corn.

2) The mandi system has a tax 2-8% charged by state governments called Mandi fees to be paid by farmer's which is coded into law. This was earlier used for rural infrastructure development before ABV's rural development fund. Now it is used as a revenue source for state government(s). There is no tax to be charged by new private players after this act has been passed. This puts the mandi(s) at a disadvantage even if MSP practice is maintained. This is also pointed out as a systemic way of abolishing mandi system over a longer period of time in favour of private players.

3) List of commodities under MSP mechanism varies ( i don't know how ) between state to state and market to market.

4) In my opinion, there was absolutely no reason to limit access to the court system in case of disputes. The logic/counter-logic for this has never been explained by anyone.

5) I could not find any example in the western world, where corporate entities play a role in agriculture procurement or fixing of prices. There are several "Mandi board" type agencies all across the globe. Read about Quebec Maple syrup co-operative, how milk prices and quota is rationed in Ontario/Canada. Read about CAP subsidies in europe, PLC in USA etc. I understand that private players will be responsible for crop loss in India but this is not the same as loss to farmer due to price volatility. Besides there are no numbers as to what the private players will pay and under what circumstances that I could read about.

The law may have been well intended to free farmers from the bondage to mandi(s) and middle-men. But the net outcome in my opinion may not be what was intended.

@Suraj-san: A lot of what I have said have also been gleaned from various punjabi language video(s) made by farmer representatives and brought up in various fora. This has nothing to do with opposition parties who are just playing to the gallery. In any case these have been coded to law ( very hastily ) and I do not see them being reversed.
Thank you for starting this "strand".

I am hardly knowledgeable on this. It seemed to me that the intent (as you said) was to give farmers better access to market prices, which may benefit him (he still has the choice to use the mandis as I understand). I have seen articles in previous years critical of the mandi system which limited the profits a hardworking and successful farmer can make.

On the other hand...

Decades ago, the dairy farmers of Gujarat faced a corporate monopoly in selling their milk products, and the solution for that was Amul. Seems like the mandis of today are a government hijack (if I may be excused for using a loaded expression) of the Amul model, with its attendant corruption and power-grabbing, leading to dysfunctionality of the mandi system from the farmer's viewpoint At least that's the rationale that I can discern behind the law. In thinking of the case against the law, what if we end back in the days of the pre-Amul Polson's corporate monopoly on price, product quality etc.? But that's just me trying to work out (with very limited knowledge & information) trying to work out the pluses & minuses of the law.

As you said, there was no explanation, no speech by the concerned minister(as far as I am aware), the bill was just rammed through. There was no "division" vote (though for the life of me I can't see why every vote in parliament should not be a division or individual-polling type of vote, using technology to get around the delays).

I can guess why it was done like that. The opposition has become so obstreperous and so obstructive that everything would have been stalled forever, like the GST law, and the land acquisition law before that. And no one is even remotely listening to any reasonable case being made, so why bother?

And to me, a lot of the orchestrated opposition to the law seems to be from a coalition of government-type creatures who benefitted from the economic levers of the mandi system, as well as farmers who were unwilling to exchange a known devil for an unknown devil that promises to be more lucrative for them.

I noticed that the tone of the anti-farm law articles by people like Chidambaram etc. changed from "Modi is robbing farmers with this new law" to "yes the mandi system has flaws, but this is not the way to fix it". (Excluding congenital morons like Pappu that is). It may be that real farmers are not buying the narrative that having a choice between limited-but-assured-profit mandis and higher-profit open market opportunities is tantamount to robbery by Modi?

Correction, after seeing the pappu tweet: looks like even Pappu is forced to change his tune somewhat, but of course his nastiness and stupidity will remain his reliable companions.
Last edited by KLNMurthy on 06 Oct 2020 03:54, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Raveen »

ManSingh wrote:
chetak wrote:even sending this guy to kindergarten was a colossal waste :mrgreen:

after wantonly setting communal fires in UP, pappu is now hell bent on setting social fires in punjab


Image
Have to disagree here. He is merely riding a wave which he had no role in starting.

A lot of what I see and hear ( I am a Jatt Sikh ), there is genuine concern about these bills ( laws currently ). The primary concerns voiced are:

1) Lack of legal recourse.

a. In case of complaints against firms running joint farms/procuring crops, the complaint is to be made to the SDM. Previously these would have been resolved by Mandi board chairmen, typically a political appointee from the state government, who would be less power distant from farmers as compared to an SDM who is an IAS officer.

b. Can not approach courts as a point of grievance redress. Also small farmers would not have the means to fight court cases/petition district magistrates against large corporate firms who may have a battery of lawyers at their disposal. A mandi board chairman being a political appointee has a vested interest in keeping farmers happy due to a vote bank factor.

2) Main concern: No in-built guarantee in the new laws that the government procurement system will continue. I know Modiji has repeatedly stressed there is no plan to end the public procurement process. This is counter-argued as to what would happen if a less honest person becomes the PM in future. Hence the demand to codify the government procurement system into law.

Guys, I know this forum leans right but the optics are not looking good for the BJP in Punjab. The next state election will be a zero contest without better public relations or media management on the ground and more safeguards.

Edited: There is no recourse to the court system under new rules at all.
Very simple ManSingh ji, don't elect a less honest PM than Modi then.

MSP is not a constitutional right - codifying it would be a huge mistake.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

The Mandi system hasn't worked and was part of the black money to control political scene. No poor farmer's kid made it to the promised land but it would be hard to find someone not associated with Mandi system not doing well. There's practically no variation of Mandi system that I see working given the historical baggage of how it ended up being controlled. Only best option would have been to purge it and start fresh. Just like many hangover institutes from the past invaders.

To carry on, polson's example. Imagine govt taking over that and trying to run it. It was working well for everyone that was part of polson but extremely bad for one that was not part of it.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by sivab »

KLNMurthy wrote: There was no "division" vote (though for the life of me I can't see why every vote in parliament should not be a division or individual-polling type of vote, using technology to get around the delays).
All it takes for a division vote is a request from ONE opposition member to the chair person in respective chamber. Procedure is chair will always take voice vote and one opposition member needs to ask for division when chair announces result of voice vote. The chair always announces result of voice vote for 3 times (ayes/noes have it) to give opposition a chance to request voice vote. As simple as that and the division is requested+complied with for every bill opposition wants in each chamber. Yet, not ONE single opposition member from ANY party requested division in either chamber. WHY?
chetak
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

sivab wrote:
KLNMurthy wrote: There was no "division" vote (though for the life of me I can't see why every vote in parliament should not be a division or individual-polling type of vote, using technology to get around the delays).
All it takes for a division vote is a request from ONE opposition member to the chair person in respective chamber. Procedure is chair will always take voice vote and one opposition member needs to ask for division when chair announces result of voice vote. The chair always announces result of voice vote for 3 times (ayes/noes have it) to give opposition a chance to request voice vote. As simple as that and the division is requested+complied with for every bill opposition wants in each chamber. Yet, not ONE single opposition member from ANY party requested division in either chamber. WHY?
the opposition does not want the public to know who sold out their votes

before voting on such crucial bills, the ruling party will always tie up the support before hand and ensure an unambiguous and clear majority in support for the bill.

in this particular case, the opposition was clearly outnumbered because of clever floor management in the RS by the BJP and also many opposition parties purposely did not even bother to attend parliament on that day. In the LS, the BJP has a majority on it's own so it needs no help there.

with the situation in MAH so fluid and uncertain, the SS and the NCP does not want to piss off the BJP which will surely form the next govt, come what may.

In the end, it's all a fixed match anyway
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ambar »

ManSinghji, there is nothing that stops the farmers from selling their product at APMC, the 'Farm Bill' just gives them an alternative to select a broader, better market. Farmers have been directly selling to corporates for as long as i can remember. Those old enough to remember 'Frooti' and other tetrapack fruit drinks that were introduced in the 80s had its company brokers buy mangoes, guavas etc directly from farmers on contract. This continues to happen everywhere for all the produce from staples to fruits and flowers. All the bill does is formalizes a practice which is already widespread and accepted. Btw, anyone who has seen the shenanigans around APMC elections will get a clue how lucrative the APMC positions must be. I have seen upclose in a small district where all the best hotels are booked for weeks, you have expensive booze flowing and russian prostitutes who fly in during the elections ! It is a very very corrupt mechanism and the poor small farmer gets the raw end of the deal as always.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

Another corrupt system. May be not as much this days but back when getting a connection was considered a big achievement of one's life, this people also made lot of money.
15 lakh govt officials to boycott work on Monday against privatisation of UP power discom
https://www.wionews.com/india-news/15-l ... com-332526
...
In case the central government does not take back its decision, the boycott would be extended for an indefinite period, they warned.
...
"The privatisation of the power sector remained unsuccessful in Orissa, Delhi, Aurangabad, Nagpur, Jalgaon, Ujjain, Gwalior, Bhagalpur, Gaya and Muzaffarpur including other places of the country.
...
darshan
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

#sunnisena
Is it trying to break muslim vote bank?
Shiv Sena Likely To Contest 30-40 Seats In The Upcoming Bihar Assembly Elections, Says Sanjay Raut
https://swarajyamag.com/insta/shiv-sena ... anjay-raut
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Varuna »

The government should constitute a women's safety bench, in which they list out all sexual assaults on a weekly basis (with due anonymisation of names of course). It will offer transparency, help in tracking improvement, and more importantly defang the BIF which likes to highlight certain cases selectively.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by nandakumar »

Ambar wrote:ManSinghji, there is nothing that stops the farmers from selling their product at APMC, the 'Farm Bill' just gives them an alternative to select a broader, better market. Farmers have been directly selling to corporates for as long as i can remember. Those old enough to remember 'Frooti' and other tetrapack fruit drinks that were introduced in the 80s had its company brokers buy mangoes, guavas etc directly from farmers on contract. This continues to happen everywhere for all the produce from staples to fruits and flowers. All the bill does is formalizes a practice which is already widespread and accepted. Btw, anyone who has seen the shenanigans around APMC elections will get a clue how lucrative the APMC positions must be. I have seen upclose in a small district where all the best hotels are booked for weeks, you have expensive booze flowing and russian prostitutes who fly in during the elections ! It is a very very corrupt mechanism and the poor small farmer gets the raw end of the deal as always.
To supplement Ambar's arguments, the APMC law made any transaction outside the mandi as punishable offence for both the buyer and the seller. Now, a small farmer can cock a snook at the law that prevents him from selling to anyone he chooses to. But it becomes difficult for a corporate like ITC Foods to go outside the mandi system and do direct procurement. The other factor inhibiting direct contracts with farmers is that the counterparty has no legal recourse for action against breach of contract. You can't invoke the Court system for enforcement of an illegal contract. So how would ITC Foods enter into a contract? The State simply didn't have the financial wherewithal to undertake price support operations in most commodities to defend the MSP. So the MSP exists only on paper for all but wheat and rice, cotton, onions in Maharashtra and so on. It is not as if transactions didn't exist outside the mandi system. But it was on a small scale. For instance for the last so many years I have been buying organically grown rice from from a trust that was originally set up to promote the teaching of Vedas to students. How they morphed into a Farmer Produce Organisation, I don't know. But I trust them when they say the rice is organically grown. Equally I trust them with advance payment of money for the supply. But there is no question that both of us were breaking the law each time.
The other thing to remember is that the vested interests had another powerful tool to break any serious rival to their trade. It is the Essential Commodities Act. The stock limits for most goods are so ridiculously set at low levels, if the Badals want to go after ITC Foods they can prosecute them for holding stocks in excess of limits under ECA law! But the commission agents of the Mandi ran no such risk given their political connections.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

darshan wrote:#sunnisena
Is it trying to break muslim vote bank?
Shiv Sena Likely To Contest 30-40 Seats In The Upcoming Bihar Assembly Elections, Says Sanjay Raut
https://swarajyamag.com/insta/shiv-sena ... anjay-raut
Hawa baazi trying to make a point when their own base on Maharashtra is being threatened by BJP.

Somewhere, I don't recall where, I read/head a jurno mention that a senior Shiv Sainik told him off the record that Balasaheb's biggest mistake was to pivot to Hindutva from Marathi manoos. The BJP is slowly but surely eating into the Shiv Sena base because on Hindutva BJP cannot be topped.

This is Sena's/Rout's way of trying to underline there relevance in politics.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Pratyush »

@ManSingh, this cut the clutter is my source of knowledge on this topic and you may consider this to a be rebuttal to the issues that your have raised. In addition to this I have gone through these issues in the family occupation in Bihar as a part of the extended family, I mostly agree with the points raised pointed in the video. They are also very happy with this. I can understand a particular section of people being unhappy with it. But not my family and people in my village.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UFQa4M ... e=emb_logo


So take it for what it is worth.

PS, I am not able to use the you tube embedder.

PPS Question to mods. Is it okay to share a facebook live link in which my father explained the issues related to the amendments to the farm laws??
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by rajkumar »

Pratyush wrote:PPS Question to mods. Is it okay to share a facebook live link in which my father explained the issues related to the amendments to the farm laws??
Yes Please
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KL Dubey »

pankajs wrote:
darshan wrote:#sunnisena
Is it trying to break muslim vote bank?
Hawa baazi trying to make a point when their own base on Maharashtra is being threatened by BJP.

Somewhere, I don't recall where, I read/head a jurno mention that a senior Shiv Sainik told him off the record that Balasaheb's biggest mistake was to pivot to Hindutva from Marathi manoos. The BJP is slowly but surely eating into the Shiv Sena base because on Hindutva BJP cannot be topped.

This is Sena's/Rout's way of trying to underline there relevance in politics.
These guys are jokers, can't take them seriously except for the fact that they have the CM post in MH and can cause some havoc for a few years. I think they may be using this route to offload black money by paying election deposits (and in the event a deposit is returned, it will be laundered by the goremint). :lol: They have already contested something like 300 seats in random states so far in the last few years ?

Is Owaisi also contesting seats in "green" areas of north BH ? Usually these guys are useful vote-cutters of INC/RJD.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

There are many farmers who grew old and died waiting to be rid of this disease called Mandi. Just ask ourselves, if we can, would we volunteerily agree to deal with a govt employee on a regular basis? Only people who would are people who are connected. New law changes allow external options that will dilute the local factions. One believing in equality would welcome this changes which is just a baby step towards the end goal. Voters will have to keep it up and not head back to lazy attitude to see any positive things. Else, laws don't matter as seen in WB, KL, RJ, MH, etc. The argument about msp being handed out by politically appointed Mandi monster is not any different than freebies that were being handed out to win votes. The nation building does not happen that way as the same logic implies that the political setup has conflict of interest in seeing constant increase in poor farmers to keep vote bank in tact. End of the day there's no substitute for freedom, equality, and competition. MSP will always be there even if it's banned by law as it's going to be in the form of political bailouts when things go not as planned. Just the mere thought of dealing with a govt employee makes me not want to grow anything. Kudos to farmers who have been and dealing with this mess.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KLNMurthy »

ManSingh wrote:Fresh post, not continuing a chain of posts:

As far as I know ( I can not find relevant articles at a short notice ):

1) Mandi system and it's inherent MSP mechanism work quite well currently. As a history lesson, allowing sale of commodities outside of APMC's has lowered the sale price for farmers and increased costs for farmers. Read about Bihar's experience with maize/corn.
I am curious as to how allowing more buyers outside the mandi lowered the sale price. Seems to run counter to basic pricing mechanism of economics. Normally more buyers => more demand => higher price.

Same with increased costs. Don’t see how costs would increase, since all that a farmer has to do is to just go to the mandi and sell his produce there, ignoring the buyers who are outside the mandi, and he will have the same price and costs as before.

Can you elaborate on how exactly there was a counterintuitive effect in Bihar?


2) The mandi system has a tax 2-8% charged by state governments called Mandi fees to be paid by farmer's which is coded into law. This was earlier used for rural infrastructure development before ABV's rural development fund. Now it is used as a revenue source for state government(s). There is no tax to be charged by new private players after this act has been passed. This puts the mandi(s) at a disadvantage even if MSP practice is maintained. This is also pointed out as a systemic way of abolishing mandi system over a longer period of time in favour of private players.
Probably true, but if it is true that mandis are corrupt and static, and stifling farmers, then perhaps they should be phased out.

Do you think mandis as they exist today are a variation of the old zamindari & caste-based trader system, as Muppalla has said? I am from Andhra, and though not directly connected with farming, I have some familiarity with the system there.

A lot of the criticism of the law seems to stem from the stereotype of predatory and evil “corporates” as opposed to the current trader-politician nexus.

All I can think of is that you can’t wish away corporations or traders, a wise government should know how and when to intervene to protect the vulnerable.

3) List of commodities under MSP mechanism varies ( i don't know how ) between state to state and market to market.

4) In my opinion, there was absolutely no reason to limit access to the court system in case of disputes. The logic/counter-logic for this has never been explained by anyone.
Earlier you had argued that small farmer cannot approach the court system because of deep pockets of corporates. So, in practice, having the courts available has little or no benefit for the small farmer, correct?

Also, am I correct in believing that, excluding the courts also means that a hypothetical corporate cannot drag a small farmer into court and ruin him?
5) I could not find any example in the western world, where corporate entities play a role in agriculture procurement or fixing of prices. There are several "Mandi board" type agencies all across the globe. Read about Quebec Maple syrup co-operative, how milk prices and quota is rationed in Ontario/Canada. Read about CAP subsidies in europe, PLC in USA etc. I understand that private players will be responsible for crop loss in India but this is not the same as loss to farmer due to price volatility. Besides there are no numbers as to what the private players will pay and under what circumstances that I could read about.
Farm produce pricing is a complex tradeoff of multiple interests and regulations. I am not even a novice in this area.

But since the new law leaves the mandi in place, a farmer faced with an unacceptable drop in market price still has recourse to the minimum price offered by the mandi, right?

Ultimately there is no hard and fast sustainable protection against business losses in agriculture as in any other business. (I know that agriculture is special, but it is still a business and part of the economic system.)


The law may have been well intended to free farmers from the bondage to mandi(s) and middle-men. But the net outcome in my opinion may not be what was intended.

@Suraj-san: A lot of what I have said have also been gleaned from various punjabi language video(s) made by farmer representatives and brought up in various fora. This has nothing to do with opposition parties who are just playing to the gallery. In any case these have been coded to law ( very hastily ) and I do not see them being reversed.
We don’t know what the net effect will be till we see the law in operation. It would have helped to see the analysis and studies (were there any?) which went into the decisions made in framing the law.

The criticisms I am seeing seem to be subjective and often of poor quality. Without some kind of objective, politically neutral analysis I would still be left skeptical and in the dark.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Raveen »

Varuna wrote:The government should constitute a women's safety bench, in which they list out all sexual assaults on a weekly basis (with due anonymisation of names of course). It will offer transparency, help in tracking improvement, and more importantly defang the BIF which likes to highlight certain cases selectively.
Name one other country with either a higher or lower rape/1000 rate than us that does this and you'll know whether this is a good idea or a bad one.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

KLNM's comments reminded me to connect dots. Non Mandi buyers in the market will also result in dual push to increase efficiency of goods movement which will result in better infrastructure. For example, even AMUL has constantly improved efficiency for being somewhat govt entity. Adani, Ambani, etc. figured out how to get roads built and increase efficiency.

One can definitely see how new changes would cause each layer of onion be peeled and the establishment presently controlling all the distribution from Mandi onwards would be uncomfortable. With better infrastructure, I may store my produce at a cheaper facility built by me which is way out of the particular politically controlled area.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

https://twitter.com/utkarsh_aanand/stat ... 2977150979
No stay by #SupremeCourt on the HC judgment that had quashed #AndhraPradesh Govt's order to make English medium mandatory in all govt schools from classes I-VI. SC will hear the state's appeal after a week.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

darshan wrote:KLNM's comments reminded me to connect dots. Non Mandi buyers in the market will also result in dual push to increase efficiency of goods movement which will result in better infrastructure. For example, even AMUL has constantly improved efficiency for being somewhat govt entity. Adani, Ambani, etc. figured out how to get roads built and increase efficiency.

One can definitely see how new changes would cause each layer of onion be peeled and the establishment presently controlling all the distribution from Mandi onwards would be uncomfortable. With better infrastructure, I may store my produce at a cheaper facility built by me which is way out of the particular politically controlled area.
IIRC, there has never been an MSP issue with procurement of milk.

different states procure at different prices and the farmers are paid only after ascertaining the purity of the milk measured at the buying spot. It is done using a lactometer to measure the specific gravity of milk. The reading on the meter indicates how pure/impure the milk is and money paid accordingly.

the price that the customer pays is known well in advance and any increase in milk prices is front page news.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

I should have been clearer. My comments were more about how constant efficiency was introduced by an entity with accountability and not about milk or MSP. The Mandi system on the other hand didn't drive any efficiency measures.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KLNMurthy »

Raveen wrote:
Varuna wrote:The government should constitute a women's safety bench, in which they list out all sexual assaults on a weekly basis (with due anonymisation of names of course). It will offer transparency, help in tracking improvement, and more importantly defang the BIF which likes to highlight certain cases selectively.
Name one other country with either a higher or lower rape/1000 rate than us that does this and you'll know whether this is a good idea or a bad one.
Comparing with other countries and their statistics is not the best criterion for deciding a question like this, IMO. India's needs and compulsions are India's, and India should making a decision based on questions like:

* What is the benefit for India and its people?

* What are the costs of not doing this?

* What are the costs of doing this?

I am not sure whether this is a good idea yet, but I am inclined to favor the idea, or something like it. With that in mind, let me try the exercise of advocating for this proposed bench or organization at the Center:

What are the benefits for India?
  • Single window service of protection of vulnerable women without the uncertainty of state and local-level politics and attitudes.

    Improved chances of rapists & criminals against women getting what they deserve, lawfully, and in short order.

    Weapon in the hands of Center to bypass hostile or incompetent state-level administrations

    Improved confidence level and sense of security for aam abduls and abdulinis.

    Marginally-improved international image among those that still have a shred of objectivity left.

    Good election-time issue

    With proper drafting and staffing of the bench, it can be a political opportunity to control which states get the "love" from the central bench, potential for article 356 on politically-opposed states that have bad rape investigation / punishment records.

What are the costs of not doing this?
  • There is something really wrong with policing and rape investigations at state level. If we don't do this, there will continue to be a sense of fear and vulnerability among aam abduls & abdulinis, and perpetrators won't get the swift and severe deterrent punishment they deserve.

    BIF, increasingly with Chinese money, will have an ever-more-strengthening weapon to disrupt, damage and weaken India. This is a potent weapon to offset and neutralize the superior quality of our military men, letting China win without a real fight.
What are the costs of doing this?
  • Another layer of government bureaucracy, subject to incompetence, corruption and inefficiency

    Should BIF come to power in the Center, another weapon in their hands.
Last edited by KLNMurthy on 07 Oct 2020 00:06, edited 1 time in total.
darshan
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

Hardly any real punishment for govt entities.
‘It is like Draupadi’s Cheerharan’: Four get life imprisonment for gang-raping Dalit woman in Alwar, Rajasthan while husband held hostage
https://www.opindia.com/2020/10/rajasth ... convicted/
...
After a public uproar, the Ashok Gehlot government suspended the SP of Alwar and the SHO of Thanagaji. On 7th June 2019, FIR against SHO was registered for failing to do his duty under 166A(C). There were enough evidence and information in the case, but he did not register FIR on time. The SP did not visit the site even 24 hours after the incident.

The family members of the Alwar gang rape survivor have alleged that the police tried to suppress the case and hush up the matter due to the elections, which took place on April 29 and May 6. The victims’ kin had alleged that though they reported the crime to the Alwar police station on May 2, the cops hushed up the matter due to the polls in Rajasthan. The police had, however, cited the lack of staff due to poll duty, as the reason for delaying the investigation.
...
Of course there's no outcry about violating rights of the victim. One has to wonder how many victims are not filing complains due to threats of being their names disclosed.
NCW issues notice to Digvijay Singh, Swara Bhaskar and Amit Malviya seeking explanation for revealing identity of the Hathras victim
https://www.opindia.com/2020/10/ncw-iss ... -identity/
pankajs
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

Rafool in full flow ...

https://twitter.com/INCIndia/status/1313431928310132737
नरेंद्र मोदी कहते है कि किसान अपना माल कहीं भी बेच सकता है। जब सड़क नहीं होगी तो कहाँ जाएगा, कैसे जाएगा किसान? सड़क बनी मंडी टैक्स से और मंडी टैक्स आपने खत्म कर दिया, मतलब सड़कों को आपने खत्म कर दिया : श्री @RahulGandhi

Translated from Hindi by Google {Modified}

Narendra Modi says that the farmer can sell his goods anywhere. When there is no road, where will it go, how will the farmer go? Road was created using Mandi tax and Mandi tax has been abolished, meaning you have finished the roads: Shri @RahulGandhi
Rafool batting for Mandi tax on farmers ...
chetak
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

the calls to boycott mirzapur - 2 have started.

the trailer of the forthcoming web series movie was released today

the reactions and the actions of jehadi bullywood tukde tukde types are not so easily being overlooked these days

they are all being attacked in the batwa.

I liked Mirzapur, but what happened after that is not good for us. The leads as @alifazal9 and Vikrant Massey spoke against India. If we watch Mirzapur 2, that would be a bad sign. pic.twitter.com/usLxXUvoP7

October 6, 2020
via Adwait K.@AdvaitSpeaks
Skanda
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Skanda »

darshan wrote:Hardly any real punishment for govt entities.
‘It is like Draupadi’s Cheerharan’: Four get life imprisonment for gang-raping Dalit woman in Alwar, Rajasthan while husband held hostage
https://www.opindia.com/2020/10/rajasth ... convicted/
Is it too much to expect Judges to stick to the order instead of un-needed references to Mahabharatha and other sacred texts. Why can't these folks be professional.
chetak
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

pankajs wrote:Rafool in full flow ...

https://twitter.com/INCIndia/status/1313431928310132737
नरेंद्र मोदी कहते है कि किसान अपना माल कहीं भी बेच सकता है। जब सड़क नहीं होगी तो कहाँ जाएगा, कैसे जाएगा किसान? सड़क बनी मंडी टैक्स से और मंडी टैक्स आपने खत्म कर दिया, मतलब सड़कों को आपने खत्म कर दिया : श्री @RahulGandhi

Translated from Hindi by Google {Modified}

Narendra Modi says that the farmer can sell his goods anywhere. When there is no road, where will it go, how will the farmer go? Road was created using Mandi tax and Mandi tax has been abolished, meaning you have finished the roads: Shri @RahulGandhi
Rafool batting for Mandi tax on farmers ...

the mandi randis were pocketing most of this money by under invoicing, double entry book keeping and fudging records of purchases.

this is a huge revenue stream for all political parties, especially those operating in the state of MAH where squeezing money from the local APMC has evolved to a esoteric art form
Last edited by chetak on 07 Oct 2020 01:26, edited 1 time in total.
Varuna
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Varuna »

KLNMurthy wrote: * What is the benefit for India and its people?
* What are the costs of not doing this?
* What are the costs of doing this?
.... snipped .....
Thanks for taking this forward and fleshing it out so beautifully.

This government has taken similar "shine sunlight on the issues" approach in the past to address other pet BIF issues that they use to flush in money to NGOs and subvert/control the national narrative. Toilets/Sanitation is one that comes to mind that we were too embarrassed to address head on, and was eventually handled by adding transparency, city rankings, dashboards and regular updates.

I'm not advocating the exact same approach here, as there are high emotions involved. It could even fall under a larger umbrella of crime statistic dashboards to add much needed accountability and reform to policing in the country.

I believe we as a nation respond much better to transparency. As someone said on another thread, most of our traditional games have all pieces on the table, no hidden hand or bluffs. If you put your pieces on the table, the people will respect you.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

Child ***** cases spike in Kerala, cyber cell arrest 41 people in a major crackdown
https://www.opindia.com/2020/10/kerala- ... crackdown/
...
The police said that most of the arrested persons were using encrypted handles to upload such material and circulating them on social media platforms. The cyber cell has seized many electronic devices and phones from these arrested individuals. Some of the arrested include IT professionals, the police said.
...
Kerala: Two brothers Naushad and Nawas arrested for raping 10 and 5-year-old minors
https://www.opindia.com/2020/10/kerala- ... ld-minors/
chetak
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

darshan wrote:I should have been clearer. My comments were more about how constant efficiency was introduced by an entity with accountability and not about milk or MSP. The Mandi system on the other hand didn't drive any efficiency measures.
the mandi system is super efficient only when it is serving its sole and exclusive customer, the one that it was indeed setup to serve.

that customer is definitely not the farmer.

it is a luxurious and fully reserved gravy train with many dynastic members of political families as long standing and regular passengers.
darshan
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

West Bengal: Two accused, Md Khurram and Gulab Shaikh, arrested for the murder of BJP leader Manish Shukla
https://www.opindia.com/2020/10/west-be ... sh-shukla/
...
BJP demands body of Manish Shukla, cops deny permission

On Monday, BJP leaders and party workers gathered outside the Nil Ratan Sircar (NRS) hospital where the body of the deceased was kept. They had demanded that the corpse be handed over to them. The cops had denied entry of BJP party members into the hospital premises and refused to comply with their demands. At the same time, the police had barricaded several gates of the hospital and were allowing the entry to ambulance and patients.
darshan
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

One wonders why SC hasn't said anything like this about islamists' atrocities on females of all ages. How about protecting all the victims of crimes committed by islamists? Most of them are coerced or killed off before culprits go to jail. With no value of Hindu lives in WB, KL, RJ, MH, TN, who knows what's happening there on daily basis.
'Horrible, Extraordinary': SC On Hathras Case, Asks UP Govt To Protect Witnesses And Family
https://swarajyamag.com/insta/horrible- ... protection
...
Senior advocate Indira Jaising, representing an intervenor in the matter, submitted before the bench that she does not want to interfere with the investigation and insisted on the transfer of the case from one state to another. She also cited that 27 FIRs have been lodged against several protesters in the matter and emphasised on providing witness protection.
...
‘All Political Parties Visited Us, But We Got No Justice,’ Says Family, A Month After Their Daughter Was Allegedly Raped And Killed In UP’s Lakhimpur
https://swarajyamag.com/politics/all-po ... -lakhimpur
...
Naina (name changed) lived in Dhawanpur village of Behjam block in Uttar Pradesh’s Lakhimpur Kheri district, which was designated as a minority-concentrated district after the 2001 census.

Naina’s body – throat slit and leg disfigured – was found on the morning of 25 August in a field just outside the village. The police arrested a man named Mohammed Dilshad from the adjoining Behjam village on charges of rape and murder.
...
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ManSingh »

All,

Thanks for reading my post. I will answer as many questions raised as I can in this final post of mine on this topic:

1) How does the new law disadvantage mandi's: The seller ( farmer ) has to pay a mandi fees 2-8% out of the proceeds of sale. This is not required when selling to private buyers. State governments have a vested interest in keeping the mandi's running as it is a source of revenue. When this revenue starts to fall, it could lead to demise of the MSP system. If the infrastructure or system starts failing, there will be no incentive for state/central governments to fix it.

2) Mandi's are a part of zamindari system, caste oppression, political control, does not help the poor get rich etc.: This is hyperbole. What the MSP system guarantees is that the farmer is guaranteed a fixed price per quintal for his sale. There are no fluctuations, negotiations, haggling with anyone. The goal of fixing prices was to end the endemic famines that India endured over the past hundred years. Social reform is not the goal here. Let's not expect one system to solve every issue in the country.

3) Losses ( including agriculture ) are a part of business: No, agriculture is different. Food security is paramount and all major countries have one or the other mechanism to help farmers avoid losses due to price fluctuations. I gave several examples, like European CAP, Quebec maple growers association etc. What is happening here is the possible loss of existing safety net without a new one being ensured.

4) How allowing corporate firms will lower the price paid to farmers: A corporate firm requires a basis for paying the farmers for the cost of procurement. Most likely this will be "Agricultural Futures". These have an inherent volatility and fluctuation in prices will kill off small farmers. There is no "evil corporate" being implied here. Just that the corporate firms do not have a social goal and they are not bound to pay any more than what a commodity is worth. In case of Bihar this is what happened with maize. Also farmers found storage costs of private players to be higher than the government.

5) APMC provide a mechanism for political control of prices: True to an extent but would this not be true for private firms as well? I hope the significance of one corporate house playing a lobbyist for the formation of government of a particular party as heard on Radia tapes would not have been forgotten by now.
The APMC/MSP system also allows the government to intervene in the market when there is shortage/fall in prices. How would the government intervene in case private players dominate the market? Theoretically they still can but that would be against the goal of free market economics anyways.

6) Codifying the MSP is a political ploy/it is similar to what the congress party demanded during GST: No, the MSP price being codified into law is not what is being asked here. What is being asked is protection of the existing mechanism of procurement. Also contrary to the opinion of posters here, prices/rates of essential goods and services are codified into law across many countries. Guess what minimum wage law prevalent in many countries is of the same nature as an MSP guarantee.

7) The opposition did not actually oppose the passage of this law: Yes, it was a fixed match and the quality of opposition is very poor. There is nothing to debate here.

8 ) The MSP system is not a forum for laundering black money. It is the lack of taxes on rich farmers as well as the co-operative banks/boards falling outside of the purview of RBI which helps launder black money. There is no opposition to fixing any of these problems and also the new laws do not address any of these flaws.

My take on this issue: I believe the underlying goals are of a dual nature:

1) I do agree there is an intent to free farmers from commission agents and bondage to selling to a single buyer ( APMC ).

2) India has been dragged into various arbitration forums across the globe for the agricultural subsidies it provides to farmers. This is pointed out by many countries as a competitive disadvantage to their farmers. By going the free market route for agricultural procurement, this does allow the Indian government a talking point as to how these subsidies have been eliminated. However, what is missing is the social safety net present in advanced economies. There is no concept of social security, a decent pension system in our country that would outdo the loss of a safety net against low/no procurement and/or price fluctuations.

I think these laws have been hastily pushed with no real debate or hearing alternate opinion on how this would play out in the real world.

OT Alert: As an analogy, it is looking very much like a very highly paid consultant firm being asked to improve the company culture by executive management. The PPT and HR action taken report sound very glamorous but the white/blue collar workers want to leave the firm asap due to the new changes.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by nachiket »

ManSingh ji, may I ask your take on why the opposition to these new laws have been muted outside of Punjab and Haryana? It seems to me that the governments of these states have become overly dependent on APMC commissions for their revenue. Perhaps this will give them a reason to try and diversify those sources and perhaps try to attract more industries to their states as other governments try to do.

Secondly, people seem to be taking it for granted that just allowing private players direct access to farm produce would mean nobody will sell at APMC mandis and these will all get shut down along with MSP because state governments won't be able to afford it. But isn't MSP something that is set by the central government? MSP was always meant to be used when the prices for commodities fall to extremely low levels due to a glut in the market and also to allow the government to buy and store produce for later on in the season when the supply falls. It is meant to be used precisely when other parties cannot or will not offer such a price. But since the mandis had a monopoly the MSP basically became the Maximum Selling Price because the farmers did not have a choice to sell to someone who offers a higher price anyway.

MSP will work best only when there are multiple options available for farmers to sell not when there is just one which was the case till now. This "threat" of "MSP will go away" is a strawman argument that opposition parties who could not argue their case in parliament (and indeed had themselves strongly supported these same reforms years ago) are using to mislead people. The noise is highest in Punjab and Haryana because the governments in these places have the most to lose. It is an open secret that the APMC mandis have been the den of corruption and source of "revenue" for politicians of all hues for decades now.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KLNMurthy »

@Mansingh let me compliment you on a cogent, well-argued presentation. If only real political debate in India (or indeed in the USA) were of remotely similar quality.

Ultimately, it seems to boil down to a tradeoff: sacrifice some degree of food security for the nation, expose the farmer somewhat more to the vagaries of the market, in exchange for the prospect of farmers making more money. It is setting the risk-o-meter somewhat higher, in the hope / expectation that the rewards will also be higher. And, in all fairness, mandis disappearing due to loss of lucre is a worst-case scenario; if the governments could spend the money to invest in, and run mandis in the first place for the sake of food security and loss mitigation for farmers, then why couldn't they spend money, for same or very similar reasons, to keep the less-lucrative mandis going?

Of course it could all go horribly wrong, but then we have to rely on the remedies of thedemocratic process and hope that it will produce relief measures and corrective legislation.

I am quite sensitive to the fact that inspite of the loud noises about wastage and corruption in FCI procurement and godown storage etc., it is the FCI that came to our rescue during covid and, perhaps, if we didn't have the FCI, we might have had more Bengal famines, or have parts or whole of India ending up like today's Venezuela--lots of money, but no food to eat for the people.

But I am also sensitive to what was pointed out to me many years ago: as an urbanite, the artificially low procurement prices fixed by governments are very much to my advantage, at the cost of the small farmer who is missing out on the opportunity to get premium global-level prices, and maybe build up a cash buffer to survive the lean years, and maybe that is one way we will see fewer farmers going bankrupt leading to suicides.

As I said, I am not knowledgeable in agricultural economics, I can only go by broad outlines of common sense and general principles. And it seems that the government decided to take a chance, with the expectation that there will be higher rewards for small & medium farmers. I guess it's the ruling party's prerogative to make such a decision.

However, the extremely poor quality of the opposition--across the board and across all states--does concern me. It means that the government's ideas are not facing the challenge and scrutiny that is needed to refine them, because absolutely no one in public life has the chops to do it. Under the circumstances, we should expect an inferior level of decision making and legislating from the government.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

Only commenting on comments that I came across twitter. I myself haven't tried to research facts of the matter.

https://twitter.com/VikasSaraswat/statu ... 3835937792
8 days after declaring the accused in #HathrasCase darinda (predators) @aajtak is now speaking to villagers and tryin to ascertain full facts. Other channels are also following suit. One wonders why could they not do it on day one?
And painting it as an Upper cast vs SC oppressor/oppressed narrative in line with Marxist Critical race theory.

https://twitter.com/DivyaSoti/status/13 ... 3910467630
They have catered to one kind of audience for a week, now catering to the other kind. Also they are aware that narrative weaved by them is soon going to backfire. Sab ganda hai par dhandha hai ye.
The conclusion is flawed in the most basic premise.

First spin an anti-India/anti-Hindu/BIF narrative. This is picked up by foreign press. Outrage is generated. Hindus are shamed abroad. Letters by activist/academics are written. UN body is approached and voices are raised. Lastly, wikipedia is update with the BIF narrative.

After a while, start reporting the other side or a more balanced and fact driven story. Indian public calmed ans assured of the coverage as balanced.

However, the real damage has been done. The anti-India/anti-Hindu/BIF narrative, picked up outside India, is NOT going to re-calibrate based on later stories. Wikipedia will stick to the anti-India/anti-Hindu/BIF narrative.

The same story was repeated during the recent anti-Hindu Delhi riots. Within India the narrative has changed BUT globally it is still seen as a anti-Muslim riot.

There is a method in the initial reporting and pivoting later. Don't get taken in.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by m_saini »

pankajs wrote:
The same story was repeated during the recent anti-Hindu Delhi riots. Within India the narrative has changed BUT globally it is still seen as a anti-Muslim riot.

There is a method in the initial reporting and pivoting later. Don't get taken in.
Sadly there is nothing hindus can do to stop the news channel from generating outrage against them and having UK's MPs plead UN to dismiss Yogi's gov. Well not unless there is a monetary cost imposed on such shenanigans.

I think everyone will remember the case of Nicholas Sandmann who was accused of getting into a racial confrontation with a native man during a rally.

He sued the news outlets and recently won a $250 million lawsuit against Wapo

Washington Post settles $250M lawsuit with teen in a MAGA hat

Unless Aajtak etc are made to pay atleast 1000 crores for every such incident, they will never stop. And honestly, i wouldn't stop either.

Outrage generates money. Facts can come later.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

Rafool want's full control of press and institution to deliver a coup!

https://twitter.com/atti_cus/status/1313402903739105281
Give me a free press, give me free institutions and the government won’t last” - @RahulGandhi
https://twitter.com/iMac_too/status/1313702478395838464
Ahmed camp is getting anxious
Image
Make whatever you will of this.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

m_saini wrote: Sadly there is nothing hindus can do to stop the news channel from generating outrage against them and having UK's MPs plead UN to dismiss Yogi's gov. Well not unless there is a monetary cost imposed on such shenanigans.
We all know what Hindus can do and have known that for awhile. One can even say from days of chanakya. The least that Hindus can do is to unite, educate themselves, and throw any Hindu organization or mandir or leader to the curb side if they aren't on the dharmic side. And, certainly they can distance themselves from anti Hindu news outlets, Netflix, Amazon prime, Bollywood, cricket, foreign cultures, etc.
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Kerala journalist, 3 others booked for sedition two days after being held by UP police

LUCKNOW: Uttar Pradesh police on Wednesday booked four persons including Kerala journalist Siddique Kappan on sedition and other charges at Maant police station in Mathura, two days after they were held while on their way to Hathras.

According to the FIR, charges under the stringent Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act and the IT Act have also been filed against the four, who were accused by the state police of having links with the alleged radical group Popular Front of India and its affiliates.

The four were identified as Kappan, a journalist of Malapuram in Kerala, Atiq-ur-Rehman of Muzaffarnagar, Masood Ahmad of Bahraich and Alam of Rampur.

They were on Wednesday booked under various sections of the Indian Penal Code (IPC) including 124A (sedition), 153A (Promoting enmity between different groups on ground of religion, race, place of birth, residence, language, etc., and doing acts prejudicial to maintenance of harmony) and 295A (Deliberate and malicious acts, intended to outrage reli­gious feelings of any class by insulting its religion or reli­gious belief), according to the FIR.
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