India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

nam · Post by **nam** » 19 Oct 2020 18:16

Would this be the first exercise where IN will have a look at F35? Mig29K flying with F35?

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 19 Oct 2020 19:04

Black top and other features are actually large mounds of sand and stones. There is no hard granite. The place is arid desert with little snow. So moisture flows down and there is less seepage into the soil. There is no permafrost. These condition are excellent to make tunnels. I assume we have to dig in to survive. That will help to save heating fuel and survive during intense bombardment. Arctic tents can be used as entrance cover.

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 19 Oct 2020 20:21

fanne wrote:Zimble only read baba tweet 4 vs 7. They had 4 of our people, we got 7, a colonel to boot. Now it is next move in the chess where we announce it. Only request rudaalis please no breast beating.

Maybe your post is sarcasm... anyway I think the "7" refers to the the claimed number of Indian LAC crossings in the Indian Express attributed to an unnamed source.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 19 Oct 2020 21:00

The significance of the Malabar exercise

Australia is set to join the Malabar naval exercises, finally making it a drill which will see the participation of all four Quad countries — India, United States (US), Japan and Australia. While this was expected — especially after a sharp dip in China-Australia ties and a greater degree of convergence between all the four Quad countries on the need to signal determination against any Chinese attempts to impose its hegemony — it is testament to how quickly the international order is evolving.

There is now a consensus, among every major liberal democracy in the world, that China is a threat — to political systems and open societies, economic self-reliance, and a rules-based regime, particularly in the international seas. India has traditionally sought to hedge its bets in larger geopolitics, but it does not have the luxury to do so anymore, because of its geography. The fact that India today faces Chinese aggression makes it incumbent on New Delhi to explore and deepen every international alliance which can serve as a source of symbolic and substantive support, including in the maritime domain where China has obvious vulnerabilities.

There is a view that cementing the Quad, including through naval exercises, will alienate China even more — and make reconciliation difficult. But India’s experience shows that Beijing tends to respect power and strength. It is not a coincidence that as India-US ties improved in mid-2000s, China was better behaved. It is only with economic strength and partnerships such as the one that will be manifested in the Malabar exercise that India can broaden its options with China. The road to peace in the mountains may lie through the sea.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 19 Oct 2020 21:07

C Uday Bhaskar
From 1962 to 2020, India’s China error

While 2020 is not 1962 and history may not quite repeat itself, some rhythms merit scrutiny for the strategically policy-relevant lessons of that war which Delhi has not learnt.

An objective review of the last 58 years would suggest that while Delhi was jolted out of the Jawaharlal Nehru-Krishna Menon make-believe framework that led to October 1962, the immediate response was tactical. The scapegoated army was re-organised at the senior level, and Prime Minister (PM) Nehru personally took over the defence portfolio for a brief period. But alas, the inadequacies in the higher defence management of the country were swept under the political carpet.

This inability or reluctance to comprehend the fine print of strategic geography, the lessons of history, the abiding relevance of credible military capability and the correlation of these strands to national security have led to a series of “surprises” that peak with an all too familiar post-crisis Delhi fumble. This was evident in October 1962 (Nehru), Kargil 1999 (AB Vajpayee), Mumbai 2008 (Manmohan Singh) and now Galwan 2020 (Narendra Modi).

After the historic Rajiv Gandhi visit to China in 1988, the post-Cold War period saw India and China engaging more robustly at the bilateral level and the PV Narasimha Rao to Manmohan Singh trajectory (1991-2014) was one of stabilising the relationship and enhancing the trade-economic engagement. The Prime Minister's Office (PMO) and the foreign office were the lead players in shaping and implementing India’s China policy — from agreements about the LAC to the Dalai Lama, Taiwan and more. An element of wishful thinking permeated this China policy, which believed that a visible demonstration of Indian good faith to the one-China policy and respect for China’s core sensitivities would allow the LAC to recede into the background. As part of this “appeasement”, Delhi lived with the anomaly of Beijing supporting Pakistan in relation to terrorism and undermining India in international fora.

On the Modi watch, the China issue morphed into a problem over the Chumar intrusion (September 2014) and festered through the Depsang-Doklam-Galwan continuum. In retrospect, it is not evident that Nehru’s policy errors were rigorously internalised by the current dispensation. Hence, comprehensive national security capability in relation to China was a low priority and the political oxygen was focused on Pakistan with its domestic electoral subtext. The mistaken assumption (the new simulacrum?) appears to have been that high-level summit meetings and frequent bilateral meetings between PM Modi and President Xi Jinping would help resolve the very complex territorial dispute summarised as the three-letter LAC.

A post Covid-19 world is struggling to emerge and it may be prudent for the Modi government to do a Vajpayee a la Kargil and go back to the drawing board. The central objective would be to objectively comprehend the nature of the China challenge for India from October 1962 to 2020, beyond just the LAC impasse.

mmasand · Post by **mmasand** » 19 Oct 2020 21:09

pankajs wrote: Yes we should just accept the Chinese terms and every thing will be back to "normal". LAC will remain LAC.

PM of India does NOT even acknowledge a public message.from the Taiwan president and we have people inviting her for Republic day parade!

India == US but only in the dreams of the jingos.

India does not recognise Taiwan as a separate country, we have signed an agreement to the effect of a 'One China' policy. Besides there are no public overtures towards Taiwan due to its historical position viz Tibet, Ladakh, and Arunachal Pradesh. The KMT exercised the same cartographic liberties as the CCP has been for 5 decades. Unless there is a change and recognition by Taiwan of India's claims of sovereignty over Ladakh, J&K, and Arunachal, don't expect any public affections of love.

Vivek K · Post by **Vivek K** » 19 Oct 2020 22:31

Chinese Soldier captured

samirdiw · Post by **samirdiw** » 19 Oct 2020 22:47

mmasand wrote: India does not recognise Taiwan as a separate country, we have signed an agreement to the effect of a 'One China' policy. Besides there are no public overtures towards Taiwan due to its historical position viz Tibet, Ladakh, and Arunachal Pradesh. The KMT exercised the same cartographic liberties as the CCP has been for 5 decades. Unless there is a change and recognition by Taiwan of India's claims of sovereignty over Ladakh, J&K, and Arunachal, don't expect any public affections of love.

Taiwan changing the maps to include only current day Taiwan is one of the red lines that China has identified and will invite a military response on Taiwan.

sraj · Post by **sraj** » 20 Oct 2020 01:45

china-is-an-elephant-in-the-room-as-a-result-of-us-policies-kanwal-sibal

China is an elephant in the room as a result of US policies, not India’s. India stood up to China at Doklam and is doing so now in Ladakh, whereas US did not push it back in the South China Sea. China’s territorial claims on India derive from its occupation of Tibet, which requires us to modify our existing policy over Tibet.

India has supported regular Quad meetings, marking its commitment to the group. A united front is being built against China but at a pace that will depend on China’s future policies and actions.

China needs to break out of the first island chain for which it is building its navy at a pace not seen historically. A stronger Quad will be an obvious response. Quad members emphasise ASEAN centrality so as not to divide Asia, but the need is to co-opt key ASEAN countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia.

However, we have issues with China that have no relationship with US-China relations. These existed when US-China ties were strong. The issues are China’s hegemonic ambitions in Asia to which India is an obstacle, its occupation of Tibet, claims on Indian territory, building Pakistan strategically against us, the CPEC, undermining us in our neighbourhood, opposing our membership of the NSG, protecting Pakistan on terrorism etc. Of course, US pressure on China serves our interests. We are partners in countering China’s maritime threats in particular.

Good start on Tibet, from ex-Foreign Secretary Kanwal Sibal.

nam · Post by **nam** » 20 Oct 2020 02:26

Malabar is happening after the US election!

Wonder what would be the effect, if there is a change of administration.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 20 Oct 2020 03:55

fanne wrote:bus sahab sare deshbhakt aur stategist BR par bhare pade hain. GOI me to dogle log bhare pade hain. Itni deshbhakti dikhao, jakar election lado, army me bharti ho jao ya defaince me self immolate ho jayo. Kuch to karo, bas gyan dena band karo. Some TFTA pakistani were left in India, they now come at BR, check their TFTA ness and proclaim every one else has loose a$$ (meaning sell out). Give me a break!!

Am I the only one who couldn't make head or tail of what is being said here?

D.Mahesh · Post by **D.Mahesh** » 20 Oct 2020 09:05

Dilbu wrote:C Uday Bhaskar...
On the Modi watch, the China issue morphed into a problem over the Chumar intrusion (September 2014) and festered through the Depsang-Doklam-Galwan continuum. In retrospect, it is not evident that Nehru’s policy errors were rigorously internalised by the current dispensation. Hence, comprehensive national security capability in relation to China was a low priority and the political oxygen was focused on Pakistan with its domestic electoral subtext. The mistaken assumption (the new simulacrum?) appears to have been that high-level summit meetings and frequent bilateral meetings between PM Modi and President Xi Jinping would help resolve the very complex territorial dispute summarised as the three-letter LAC.

[/quote]

Uday Bhasker is wrong. Right from 2014, this govt has been transforming its China policy, in several different ways. Firstly accepting the hard reality of decades of neglect and inaction, and the parlous state of steady-state capability (as opposed to surge capability.
Infra build-up has been on a scale unlike anything India has seen. Dolam and now Galwan and all those re-adjustments. Pakistan de-hyphenation is almost done. Notice how little time DDM spends of Pak. There is no weightier evidence that Uday Bhaskar is wrong than the fact that all these six years he has never once leveled this criticism about he China policy he is leveling now

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 20 Oct 2020 10:16

The Commodore has probably the political leanings of his daughter, he probably seeing it through that lens.

Roop · Post by **Roop** » 20 Oct 2020 11:35

fanne wrote:Zimble only read baba tweet 4 vs 7.

I would love to, if you would be so kind as to provide a link. Thanks in advance.

I like to read BB's tweets; I give him more credit than what he generally seems to get from other Rakshaks.

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 20 Oct 2020 11:56

Roop wrote:
fanne wrote:Zimble only read baba tweet 4 vs 7.
I would love to, if you would be so kind as to provide a link. Thanks in advance.

I like to read BB's tweets; I give him more credit than what he generally seems to get from other Rakshaks.

That particular tweet just says India7
China 4
Now what does that mean?

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 20 Oct 2020 12:23

India encroached at 7 places in response to China's encroachment at 4 places? Doesn't make much sense given the arbitrary nature of LAC.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 20 Oct 2020 12:34

PLA soldier went missing looking for yaks, hope India returns him soon, says China

Issuing a statement on the missing PLA soldier on Monday night, Colonel Zhang Shuili, spokesperson of the Western Theatre Command, said a PLA soldier went missing while looking for lost yaks on the evening of October 18.

He did not identify the soldier.

“After the incident, Chinese border guards took the initiative to report the situation to the Indian side as soon as possible, and hoped that the Indian side would assist in search and rescue,” Zhang said in the statement.

nam · Post by **nam** » 20 Oct 2020 14:12

The lesson that has got embedded in GoI (irrespective of the party in power) is that not that Chinese will intrude again, but that they will leave after asking for some local changes (stop water supply, some hut or bunker etc). Or like Doklam, enough chai and biscuit will melt Chinis hearts...

The same attitude was displayed UNTIL Galwan clash. The Chinis wanted something big this time, so they came in multiple numbers. But GoI still hoped, they will leave.

Chinis, this time were asking for something strategic in nature. Stopping our infra build across Ladakh. If the Chinis go back this time, the lesson will become more hardened. And I am pretty sure, we will get caught surprised again, in the next round.

samirdiw · Post by **samirdiw** » 20 Oct 2020 16:57

What do we gain by saving China's face? It will result only in the bully trying again a new scheme.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 20 Oct 2020 17:41

One benefit I see from these long drawn talks and negotiations is that the Chinese are obliged to reveal more and more of their OrBat, build up capabilities, support logistics, troop compositions, weapons deployments, behaviour of soldiers and the ranks above etc. and I'm sure keen observers and analysts in the Armed Forces & Intelligence Agencies are making note of these things and refining our response postures & preparations accordingly.

Idem on other aspects on the political & diplomatic front.

An offensive force is by default obliged to show some of its cards by the very fact that they have adopted that posture. A defensive force can just hunker down and reveal a lot less.

I'd say we have learned a lot more about what the Chinese can and will try to do in the past six months than the past six years. And this Govt and Armed Forces leaders will make good use of the insights gained.

The longer this situation lasts, the lesser the Chinese can surprise us going forward.

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 20 Oct 2020 18:36

Aditya_V wrote:The Commodore has probably the political leanings of his daughter, he probably seeing it through that lens.

I have never really liked his articles appearing in newspapers as "analysis". Never commits/suggests anything strategic, just gives a superficial commentary of what is already known. Unlike a Maroof Raza or Lt Gen Ata Hasnain where you really gain a perspective.

I hope the Strategic planners have put him on the same list as Dukla.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 20 Oct 2020 19:37

Embedded India Today piece ..

https://twitter.com/AbhishekBhalla7/sta ... 1067298817

10 tunnels running up to 100 km are planned for #Ladakh and #Kashmir
at mountain passes for all weather connectivity #LAC #LoC.

4 on Manali-Leh route
3 in Ladakh ahead of Leh
1 Srinagar-Leh
2 in Kashmir

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 20 Oct 2020 20:45

V_Raman wrote:Given the events, I think Deans-2022 is more likely now.

Thanks. Good to see that several things in the book (I had completed most of it by end 2018) are playing out.
For the next few days, the book is available at a special price or Rs 159 on Kindle (Amazon.in), as against the regular price of Rs 399.
(Free on Kindle unlimited). Royalties go to our army battle casualties fund.
Unfortunately, can't find a published for the hard copy in India (abroad its on Amazon.com) as the price they ask - for no value addition on
their part, would equal the royalties I'd get from it.

M_Joshi · Post by **M_Joshi** » 20 Oct 2020 21:05

It's my hunch that the recent Mumbai Electrical grid blackout was a cyber attack from Chin. Obviously there will be no official word on this but it's a conspiracy theory I'm inclined to believe in.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 20 Oct 2020 21:23

Armed forces have just completed a new set of war plans to reflect new environment.

At the strategic level - people (incl. senior US officials) are calling into question GOI strategic relationship with Russia and allowing Russia to mediate with PRC. People forget how tied in the hip we are with Russia for spares etc and there is a requirement to guarantee those supply lines via air route. IN/IAF have been given the task to secure from interdiction. My view is that GOI have no choice but to go for 2 front war.

PLA also have realised Indian SF are operating on their territory and have started deploying some assets to sniff them out.

As I stated at the start - certain quarters are pushing for pre-emptive strikes but this is looking less likely now. At the moment, they don't want to give a face save move to PLA/Xi and just want to maintain defensive posture.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 20 Oct 2020 23:07

The window to strike back was post Galwan or when they occupied the heights around F4. For whatever reasons good or bad, GOI didn't do that. Many weeks have passed, we have taken hold of many surrounding heights and now winter will do (at lease half) the job for us. So not expecting any move from our side unless provoked by the Chinese. These negotiations are a dead end and both sides know that.

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 20 Oct 2020 23:23

The question is what are PLA and PRC getting by just sitting at LAC and doing nothing. I think they will try to strike at some opportune moment.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 21 Oct 2020 00:11

At this stage CCP can't back off since it will be seen as a loss. They don't care about a few hundred PLA casualties which they know will happen just by sitting on the LAC through the winter. They may be thinking that this may reveal any chinks (no pun) in India's defences, or at least lead to similar losses and expenses on the Indian side. CCP is convinced that India can afford it less than they can.

I think what China is most afraid of, is not India's ability to repost (which they may be underestimating or feel confident of handling) but of the US getting involved in the conflict directly through its operatives in Tibet or indirectly in the Indo-Pacific theatre. To prevent this, China will try to push India as far as it can without crossing what the Chinese think is the American redline in this theatre.

My guess is that they are waiting for US to go into election frenzy and post election turmoil (it may not be a peaceful transfer of power in the US this time) and use that as a window to make a short incursion and make localised attack on India, cause some Indian casualties to avenge Galwan, cause some damage to the recently built roads (which is their stated objection) and pull back to ***current*** positions, declare ceasefire and call for talks again. Thus making US involvement unlikely.

This will enable them to declare a face saving victory and not lose any of the ground they have nibbled recently. They will then drum up the nuclear fears and get the international community to dissuade India from making a massive retaliation or open other theatres. They will be counting on the fact that India's retaliation reaction times going by historical examples are quite long, and not just for military reasons, we will do a cabinet meeting, another with CDS and service chiefs, another with all party leaders, call up G7 world leaders, discuss with Russia... whatever. By the time India finally moves, winter will have fully set in, and it will be quite a task for India to go from defensive deployment to counter-offensive deployment in hostile territory with 6 months of terrible winter conditions ahead, and where the Chinese have done a massive mobilisation for months. China will think even if India attacks despite all this, they have little risk of losing recently grabbed territory and nearly zero risk of losing territory it has occupied for long or Tibet. Moreover they can activate the Pakis.

If China misses that window, then it will most likely be status quo as it is now, until next spring.

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 21 Oct 2020 00:29

My guess is that they are waiting for US to go into election frenzy and post election turmoil (it may not be a peaceful transfer of power in the US this time) and use that as a window to make a short incursion and make localised attack on India, cause some Indian casualties to avenge Galwan, cause some damage to the recently built roads (which is their stated objection) and pull back to ***current*** positions, declare ceasefire and call for talks again. Thus making US involvement unlikely.

This is likely. India has to be ready for this. They have not come to LAC to just for the winter.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 21 Oct 2020 00:30

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52_40J20QIQ
2 brilliant minds talk: ex-NSA Shiv Shankar Menon & Prof C. Raja Mohan discuss the Chinese challenge

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 21 Oct 2020 00:34

What is so brilliant about these guys? C Raja Mohan keeps talking of power asymmetry. Menon of Sharm el Sheikh says India should not get close to US.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 21 Oct 2020 00:55

Both parties in the US agree that PRC need to be dealt with... They know their Nat Sec is threatened. at institutional level all agree PRC is a very serious threat and preparations have been made for some time.

nam · Post by **nam** » 21 Oct 2020 00:58

Our jokers will never fail to do the "non-alignment" nonsense. China, a commie nation, fought a full fledged war with US, switched side in a blink of eye, for it's self interest. Result it a 15T second largest economy in the world. Able to threaten us at will. But US is the threat to our autonomy...

We meanwhile are still stuck at 2000 per capita, not even a export giant, struggling to find jobs for our people, facing a 2 front threat, terror from one nation and supporting it another one. But hey our "non-alignment" & "autonomy" ethos, which means diddly squat are strong.

nam · Post by **nam** » 21 Oct 2020 01:01

The only way to break Chinese power is to break it's economic engine. It's export engine. It's manufacturing power.

This can only happen if we are aligned with US, Europe, SK, Taiwan & Japan. Why would they take the manufacturing from one threat to another location, who is not allied? They are not dumb to create another risk for themselves in the future.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 21 Oct 2020 01:02

shyamd wrote:Both parties in the US agree that PRC need to be dealt with... They know their Nat Sec is threatened. at institutional level all agree PRC is a very serious threat and preparations have been made for some time.

Thats the feeling I got as well, while listening to Biden & Harris carefully. They don't go into anti-china hyperbole like Trump, but do not contradict him on Chinese threat nor do they say anything positive about China.

My estimate is that Biden will win, enough of America has had enough of Trump's disaster. India will not lose the momentum of the relationship growth achieved so far and a common threat like China will only bring us closer. Indian diplomacy is quite JaiHo these days

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 21 Oct 2020 01:07

shyamd wrote:Both parties in the US agree that PRC need to be dealt with... They know their Nat Sec is threatened. at institutional level all agree PRC is a very serious threat and preparations have been made for some time.

So Biden admin will also be tough on China? I would think that would be the case.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 21 Oct 2020 02:11

I wouldn’t go as far as saying GOI diplomacy will seize the initiative. Biden is holding meetings with “minorities”, Human rights people. Trump is irritated with GOI because they accepted Russian mediation (and few others matters) and lack of a role in Afghanistan.

PS I’m presenting a view not representing a side etc etc so don’t shoot the messenger

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 21 Oct 2020 02:12

Not that my opinion matters but a known thing is better than an unknown something

BTW, please dont make this a US election thread

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 21 Oct 2020 02:28

pankajs wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52_40J20QIQ
2 brilliant minds talk: ex-NSA Shiv Shankar Menon & Prof C. Raja Mohan discuss the Chinese challenge

Since when have we started to take poor excuse of an NSA's chat seriously and that too which appears on print?

ManuJ · Post by **ManuJ** » 21 Oct 2020 06:19

pankajs wrote:Embedded India Today piece ..

https://twitter.com/AbhishekBhalla7/sta ... 1067298817
10 tunnels running up to 100 km are planned for #Ladakh and #Kashmir
at mountain passes for all weather connectivity #LAC #LoC.

Finally, better sense has prevailed.
A 10km tunnel planned for Saser La instead of trying to build a glaciated road.
Tunnels also planned for Khardung La and Changla.
Will ensure that DBO, Galwang etc. can never get cut off from the mainland.