2020 US election results discussion

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 06 Nov 2020 00:27

Avtar Singh wrote:
Punjabi wrote: .................God Help us
You worry too much, please get a grip.
Stiff upper lip and all that and for gods sake remember, you are after all a PUNJABI
as am I.

isn't the surname "punjabi" usually a sindhi name

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 06 Nov 2020 00:32

vera_k wrote:
chetak wrote:is there any truth to this

Judicial Watch finds 1.8 million 'ghost voters' in 29 states, warns of 'dirty elections'
Sure. The NGO involved has started suing some states. Will be popcorn time if either side finds a systematic operation of having people vote in multiple states. The distances involved are no longer a barrier given the invention of the automobile.

one would expect nothing less from a party that fielded cigar smoking cash clinton, email server hillary, obamacare obama, hunter biden's pater: papa biden and of course the black baptist, the mylapore maami.

if biden wins, hillary as well as michelle, both card carrying members of the very cosy dynastic club of potential presidential candidates, are completely snookered.

and both must be kicking themselves for having misread these elections so utterly and thoroughly wrong by not standing themselves

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 06 Nov 2020 01:00

It seems to me that there are three broad phases of vote counting, though this is not done this way due to any specific law or guideline, but mostly as a practice inherited from previous elections.

First: in-person Election Day votes counting

Second: Early votes counting, added to the above.

Third: Mail in vote counting, added to the above two, since some states allow mail in votes to come in even after Election Day. In some states such ballots must be post marked BEFORE election day, on some others this cut-off date restriction is set at X days after the Election Day.

Trump jumped the gun when he saw himself leading at the end of Phase 1 and started pushing for stopping counting and declared himself winner. They filed lawsuits in various states where it suits them to stop counting and other lawsuits where they were lagging at that time alleging malpractices and asking for recounting.

The Phase 2 early vote ballots were counted next and the revised totals started to show the leads shift to Biden in key states. Phase 2 is mostly over by now.

Meanwhile, his crony appointee Post Master General Louis De Joy (appointed mid June after suddenly firing the previous PMG) has ensured that many thousands of mail in ballots were kept undelivered and don't enter counting centres before the cutoff date in some states (rules vary). It is believed that this was done mostly in counties where strong fight was expected from Dems.

A judge threatens the postmaster general over slow execution of sweeps for undelivered ballots

Phase 3 is being done now, and the fate of many thousands of mail in ballots stuck in US Postal is in a limbo. About 300,000 in PA alone.

Roughly 300,000 ballots that the Postal Service says it processed showed no scan confirming their delivery to ballot-counting sites, according to data filed recently in federal court in Washington, D.C., leaving voter-rights advocates concerned.

The irony now is that the Trump gang doesn't know for sure if getting these ballots delivered and counted them will hep them reverse the tide and help him win or if they will turn out mostly in Dem's favour and increase Biden's lead. They are stuck and in a panic situation realising that they -may- have shot themselves in the foot by making US Postal play dirty.

Biden camp will be justifiably pushing for all votes to be counted, including ballots stuck in Postal processing centres, and may file lawsuits if they find the victory slipping away or if they see Trump challenging the results if Biden is clearly ahead.

Lovely jubbly mess !!! Grab some popcorn....

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 06 Nov 2020 01:07

Chetak ji, whats the point? Similar invective can be made for Rep presidents, especially on the latest one across several additional categories like sexual abuse, rape, misogyny, racism, corruption, tax fraud, perjury, treason (was impeached, remember?)... There are no doodh ka dhulas on either side.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 06 Nov 2020 01:10

US of A is the only country where defence is run by a secretary and the postal services is run by a general

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 06 Nov 2020 01:11

LoL ! Good one.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 06 Nov 2020 01:12

Cyrano wrote:Chetak ji, whats the point? Similar invective can be made for Rep presidents, especially on the latest one across several additional categories like sexual abuse, rape, misogyny, racism, corruption, tax fraud, perjury, treason (was impeached, remember?)... There are no doodh ka dhulas on either side.

Cyrano ji

just chalk it down to the disappointment of trump not making it.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 06 Nov 2020 01:17

Well, without the senate majority its going to be a lame duck presidency at best.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 06 Nov 2020 01:22

I wouldn't be so sure about that. With Trump no longer looming large, Dems can flip 2 or 3 Rep senators on some issues and push through... Plus some senate seats will again be up for renewal in 2 yrs from now.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 06 Nov 2020 01:25

Cyrano wrote:Chetak ji, whats the point? Similar invective can be made for Rep presidents, especially on the latest one across several additional categories like sexual abuse, rape, misogyny, racism, corruption, tax fraud, perjury, treason (was impeached, remember?)... There are no doodh ka dhulas on either side.

This is NOT a thread to debate Rep vs Dem, just about the election. The Dems are the likely winners of the election, and they will therefore be scrutinized. Not the place to debate 'but what about the other side'. We'll discuss the other side if they're the winner, eh ?

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 06 Nov 2020 01:27

Cyrano wrote:It seems to me that ....
Lovely jubbly mess !!! Grab some popcorn....

No. Everyone including the Trump campaign were alarmed when healthy leads were not called in his favor but Biden's lead even at 40% counting was called in his (ex : AZ). The "phases" thing is nothing new but we've never seen counting go on for 3 days with no decision in sight, and you blame Trump and his supporters for doubting this ? Every election including 2016 were decided by 11 PM est, here we are on 5th with still no clear outcome other than democrat run states keep finding these stack full of Biden ballots ! Unless opening the envelopes this year is akin to disarming a nuclear tipped missile, nothing explains why it should take 3 days with a familiar trend of cutting Trump's lead in all democrat states.

Then you add the eye raising voter turnout, dead voters, voters who have voted but their votes not getting registered, and observers being denied entry, there is every reason to be doubt the veracity of the process.

Now in NV https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4X2V5hP ... naldJTrump

https://twitter.com/adamhousley/status/ ... 3447703552

So many such cases. ..

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 06 Nov 2020 01:28

Cyrano wrote:I wouldn't be so sure about that. With Trump no longer looming large, Dems can flip 2 or 3 Rep senators on some issues and push through... Plus some senate seats will again be up for renewal in 2 yrs from now.

..so will be the house.

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 06 Nov 2020 01:29

chetak wrote:
Cyrano wrote:Chetak ji, whats the point? Similar invective can be made for Rep presidents, especially on the latest one across several additional categories like sexual abuse, rape, misogyny, racism, corruption, tax fraud, perjury, treason (was impeached, remember?)... There are no doodh ka dhulas on either side.
Cyrano ji

just chalk it down to the disappointment of trump not making it.

Trump has done somethings that I think the past Dem and Republicans would never do.

Went after Huawei
protected 5G tech by shielding Qualcomm from pressures of china profits.(even after Broadcom moved from Singapore to the US)
It started a trade war with the Chinis.
tightened screws on turkey (Turkish Lira has been sinking)
Stopped aid to Pakistan increasing effectiveness of FATF listing and increasing the burden on china as the only baby sitter
enabled West Bank concessions from Israel and Abraham accords with Arab countries by tightening screws on Iran
What does this mean? The US has had to keep a footprint in the Middle East for 80 years for energy security. It no longer needs to do that.
Trumps making the first steps for a peaceful exit from there.

The long term benefits of the above to the US and India are tremendous if Biden does not screw things up.

Hillary Clinton: "It takes a village"
But some times it takes the village idiot to do things when no one else has the courage

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 06 Nov 2020 01:30

Cyrano wrote:It seems to me that there are three broad phases of vote counting, though this is not done this way due to any specific law or guideline, but mostly as a practice inherited from previous elections.

...

Seems like a fairly accurate summary to my amateur eyes.

Meanwhile, his crony appointee Post Master General Louis De Joy (appointed mid June after suddenly firing the previous PMG) has ensured that many thousands of mail in ballots were kept undelivered and don't enter counting centres before the cutoff date in some states (rules vary). It is believed that this was done mostly in counties where strong fight was expected from Dems.

Ah, I see. Certain text messages reported by friends (saying - please vote in person, don't mail in) are starting to make sense now. At the time, I was like

.

Lovely jubbly mess !!! Grab some popcorn....

Unable to be that objective, the consequences of a dem win being what they are.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 06 Nov 2020 01:35

Cyrano wrote:I wouldn't be so sure about that. With Trump no longer looming large, Dems can flip 2 or 3 Rep senators on some issues and push through... Plus some senate seats will again be up for renewal in 2 yrs from now.

Trump is already planning a 2024 run if 2020 does not work out.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 06 Nov 2020 01:41

Why is it so surprising that counting is taking longer this time ? In 2020 there is
- High voter turnout given how polarised and inflamed the debate in US has been
- Lot of mail in ballots due to Covid effect
- Lot of early voting due to canvassing & Covid effect (avoid crowds on E day)

Most of the time, by the end of E day, one candidate would concede based on cumulative results and overall picture it _projects_ and the other candidate would therefore, claim victory. No winner is declared by anyone or by any "authority" immediately at a national level, there is no election commission equivalent. Declaring results officially was always after several rounds of scrutiny and verification and consolidation and going to House etc many weeks after the E day.

This instant result declaration is another myth propagated by the Trump camp.

Raja · Post by **Raja** » 06 Nov 2020 01:55

Ambar wrote:
Cyrano wrote:It seems to me that ....
Lovely jubbly mess !!! Grab some popcorn....
No. Everyone including the Trump campaign were alarmed when healthy leads were not called in his favor but Biden's lead even at 40% counting was called in his (ex : AZ). The "phases" thing is nothing new but we've never seen counting go on for 3 days with no decision in sight, and you blame Trump and his supporters for doubting this ? Every election including 2016 were decided by 11 PM est, here we are on 5th with still no clear outcome other than democrat run states keep finding these stack full of Biden ballots ! Unless opening the envelopes this year is akin to disarming a nuclear tipped missile, nothing explains why it should take 3 days with a familiar trend of cutting Trump's lead in all democrat states.

So many such cases. ..

Erm, were the other elections held during a global pandemic which pushed a lot of voters primarily from a single party to vote via early voting or mail-in ballots? The past elections were decided not because all of the votes were counted but because there were enough trends to know the end result. A] We have a record amount of mail-in ballots which are notoriously slower to count especially in states which have rules that prevent preprocessing of them. B] The distribution of votes is skewed by the method of voting. If both Republicans and Democrats were equally likely to have voted in person and by ballot we would have already known the results by now. At the very least, we would not have had a massive shift.

Regarding Arizona, are you claiming that Fox News is in the pockets of democrats because they are the ones who called Arizona? NYT, and most others have not called it. There is only one person who does not want all the votes to be counted and it is very clear why.

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 06 Nov 2020 02:00

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 06 Nov 2020 02:04

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-e ... s-n1246483

How Dems won Michigan

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 06 Nov 2020 02:15

How they really did it.
By making sure 100% votes are going for their candidate. 138339 out of 138339. Not even 1 for the other guy.

And dead people. https://mvic.sos.state.mi.us/voter/index

george · Post by **george** » 06 Nov 2020 02:24

DavidD wrote:
george wrote:
I see that you simply sidestepped the question of a 20% jump in turnout in both states and instead want to judge my math skills?
If your numbers/math is wrong, which it is, then it's not a 20% jump. I felt that should be addressed first, don't you agree?

http://www.electproject.org/home/voter- ... rnout-data

For example, Michigan's voter turnout was 65.7% (4.87M / 7.42M) in 2016, 73.5% (5.55M / 7.55M) this year, a relative increase of 11.8% (73.5 - 65.7 / 65.7).

Note that I'm using the "total votes counted" for my calculations, which includes votes for 3rd party candidates and votes that did not go for any presidential candidate. Those votes constitute <2% of total votes each year.

Why did you not quote the math that I posted? Or were you worried that you'd be outed?

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 06 Nov 2020 02:26

Aren't voter lists accessible to both parties BEFORE the elections? Then how can one party claim its the fraud of the other AFTER the election? Because they hoped to turn such dead peoples' votes to their advantage but somehow couldn't ?

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 06 Nov 2020 02:39

These undead/ undying conspiracy theories just won't go away.

I want to ask - why are people so concerned about that piddling 138,000 vote jump for Biden? Go back to the previous day, there was a much larger 5,00,000 vote jump for Biden, and NOTHING FOR TRUMP. Don't you see that the red line is practically non-existent between 6:00 PM on Nov. 3, and 12:00 AM on Nov. 4? Whereas that blue line shows a jump of 5,00,000 or even 7.5 lakhs in the same interval!!

The red line is hidden behind the blue line, is that so hard to understand? IOW, it wasn't 138,000 for Biden with 0 for Trump at 6:00 AM on Nov. 4th, there was a smaller rise in the red line also. Just that the blue line is plotted right on top of it.

So look at this graph, between Nov. 3rd 6:00 PM to Nov. 4th 12:00 AM. There is a large rise in the red line (Trump) with a minimal rise in the blue line (Biden). IT DOES HAPPEN, both ways.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 06 Nov 2020 02:45

I'm not saying election frauds can't happen, they indeed can at every stage of the process, starting from drawing up electoral rolls to declaring the final result and during each of the umpteen stages in between.

I understand both parties can and do have their representatives and observers in every counting centre. If one party is cheating by counting tens/hundreds of thousands of votes for their candidate in a bunch, in a specific time window, what are the reps from the other party doing? There are many steps for checking the voter's identity, ballot validity, signature check, tallying, etc that can be and are indeed crosschecked by reps of both parties, and then by officials.

Despite all these the claim is that thousands of votes have escaped all scrutiny points and landed exclusively in one party's count onlee in an hour or two.

Hmmm.......must be Houdinis performing in front of the Blind+Deaf+Dumb.

saip · Post by **saip** » 06 Nov 2020 02:57

Why are we peddling these conspiracy theories on this board?

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 06 Nov 2020 03:05

Of course fraud happens, but the above graphs do not show fraud, they seem pretty reasonable to me.

This sounds like the flat-earther arguments about "I've never seen a video of the ISS (International Space Station) being built!" or "They tell us that the ISS moves at 5 miles EVERY SECOND! I ask - is that even believable??"

Somebody on the net, lacking basic graph literacy, wrongly interpreted that graph as "all 138,000 votes went to Biden and none for Trump!" And folks keep parroting it blindly.

This is an issue with any graph, if one simply chooses two different lines of the same thickness and relies on only color-coding to differentiate them, then the later line can and will end up obscuring the earlier one. Whenever this happened, I'd go back to make the later line dashed, or reduce its thickness, or use markers instead of lines, so that the earlier line wasn't hidden away.

When I first saw those WI and MI graphs, I was suspicious that there was such a large jump for Biden and such a small one for Trump (so yes, I thought it was a conspiracy too), but then (especially after I read KL Dubey's post) I noticed that it also happened the other way earlier in the day.

And I doubt the states would openly out such evidence of fraud, I'd credit them with a little more sophistication than that. If there's fraud (not saying there isn't, I'd be very surprised if there wasn't in fact, at least on a small scale) it's going to take a lot more effort to out it.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 06 Nov 2020 03:13

Cyrano wrote:I'm not saying election frauds can't happen, they indeed can at every stage of the process, starting from drawing up electoral rolls to declaring the final result and during each of the umpteen stages in between.

I understand both parties can and do have their representatives and observers in every counting centre. If one party is cheating by counting tens/hundreds of thousands of votes for their candidate in a bunch, in a specific time window, what are the reps from the other party doing? There are many steps for checking the voter's identity, ballot validity, signature check, tallying, etc that can be and are indeed crosschecked by reps of both parties, and then by officials.

Despite all these the claim is that thousands of votes have escaped all scrutiny points and landed exclusively in one party's count onlee in an hour or two.

Hmmm.......must be Houdinis performing in front of the Blind+Deaf+Dumb.

Observers mean jacksh* if the ballots themselves are fraudulent. Besides, from NV to PA we have recorded evidence of GoP observers not being allowed inside the counting stations. Nevada has 1.8 million voters, most wards in Mumbai have more people than that and they are saying it will take days for them to arrive at the final number. Btw, the MI spike was real , they said it was a "clerical error" in Shiawassee county of adding an addition 0 against Joe Biden's number.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol ... 165708002/

So much for the "crosschecking reps" huh..

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 06 Nov 2020 03:22

Funny thing is that the US which was at the forefront of regime change and nation creation/obliteration has been struck by the same disease. Yes the election is legitimate on paper but the war of ideas - the same war that led to the Soviet dismantling, has now come home to roost. Some processes will be irreversible.
The same processes that have been injected into education, media elsewhere are now pervasive in the US as well and no amount of evangelical churches will reverse that. The conservatives and nationalists in the US believe that conservative churches will create cohesion and keep the concept of the nation intact. That will not happen. The very birth of this group came as a rebellion to the pagan establishments of Europe and thrived and flourished through the same processes that the extreme leftists and antifa are using now. They are in essence subversive in nature.
Perhaps this is the last election where the US nationalists had a chance. The magic of demographics + targeting higher studies + media is a sail through.
This is a lesson for other civilizational states.

saip · Post by **saip** » 06 Nov 2020 03:36

Looks like Trump's handlers have put him on a tight leash and not allowing him to address the country on TV and then Twitter is censoring his tweets. I hope he does not suffer from High BP. If Biden wins, come Thanksgiving when traditionally Presidents pardon TWO turkeys, Trump will pardon only ONE turkey, himself.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 06 Nov 2020 03:38

Observers mean jacksh* if the ballots themselves are fraudulent.

That of course is entirely possible. I don't know the step by step process lifecycle from the time a ballot is printed to counted and then finally destroyed. Perhaps you know better and can pin point in which step(s) fraud has happened and how.

Oh, there must have been significant armed resistance if Trump's Proud Boys were not even allowed into Counting stations. But there hasn't been. Why? Bcoz no one can just walk into counting centres under police protection unless registered as a volunteer or as a party rep. This is not some free peep show. More lies spread by Trumpists. Some GoP "observers" complain they aren't allowed to personally verify signatures, scans on ballots etc. Thats not the role of observers as per established rules. The bad faith is staggering but has ceased to shock me or the RoW.

saip · Post by **saip** » 06 Nov 2020 03:39

About Trump 2024, it is unlikely. Once he is out his tax returns may no longer be protected from subpoenas and who knows what skeletons will tumble out?

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 06 Nov 2020 03:43

When Trump loses, our veggie NaMo will drop him like a cold turkey and ask JS to make Idli Sambar for Mylapore Maami

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 06 Nov 2020 03:55

Cyrano wrote:
Observers mean jacksh* if the ballots themselves are fraudulent.
That of course is entirely possible. I don't know the step by step process lifecycle from the time a ballot is printed to counted and then finally destroyed. Perhaps you know better and can pin point in which step(s) fraud has happened and how.

Oh, there must have been significant armed resistance if Trump's Proud Boys were not even allowed into Counting stations. But there hasn't been. Why? Bcoz no one can just walk into counting centres under police protection unless registered as a volunteer or as a party rep. This is not some free peep show. More lies spread by Trumpists. Some GoP "observers" complain they aren't allowed to personally verify signatures, scans on ballots etc. Thats not the role of observers as per established rules. The bad faith is staggering but has ceased to shock me or the RoW.

Check my previous posts i have posted links to videos where GoP poll observers with authorization and all the necessary paperwork were denied entry in NV and PA . Yes, proud boys bad and antifa / BLM are angels who's first shift is to stuff ballots and second is to burn cities.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 06 Nov 2020 04:01

Boss, you keep jumping from one fraud claim to another, first its counting, then misinterpreted graphs, then ballots themselves then observers... I'll let your arguments pass. Believe what you will.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Nov 2020 04:04

Folks
Thanks for keeping the discussion civil and not getting banned.
I had my own doubts that it would be so polite.

Overall good discussion.
Looks like Biden could be the President.

I would like to channel the energies in asking you to think of broad range of political, defence, economic, social impacts on India.

Just a three to five lines

Category: Political/Defence/Economic/Social

Impact:

Mitigation:

I you don't think there won't be please don't post.

Thanks again,
ramana

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Nov 2020 04:19

Raveen, Please use format.
Thanks for quick response.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 06 Nov 2020 04:20

Cyrano wrote:Boss, you keep jumping from one fraud claim to another, first its counting, then misinterpreted graphs, then ballots themselves then observers... I'll let your arguments pass. Believe what you will.

Almost into day 4 and counting is still on ? - Check
NV with 1.4 million votes and 1.8 million total voters saying they need more days to count - Check
Majority of paper ballots in favor of one candidate - Check
Observers with authorization being denied entry ? - Check
Graphs with spikes proved true. MI admitted clerical error - Check

Not arguments but facts. You too can believe what you will but this election would make Laloo and Mamata Banerjee look like amateurs. The outcome is clear and it is tarnished.

mappunni · Post by **mappunni** » 06 Nov 2020 04:25

Did anyone even consider the impact of Republicans holding the Senate?

So even if the democrat-controlled house passe bills it will be spiced by the Senate Republicans to include whatever they want, if they want to pass the bill.

The rest of the democratic house passed bills are going to die a slow painful death, by the Leader of the Senate not even putting up the bill for discussion.

What is your take? Will it turn out to be a lame-duck Presidency?

Raveen · Post by **Raveen** » 06 Nov 2020 04:35

mappunni wrote:Did anyone even consider the impact of Republicans holding the Senate?

So even if the democrat-controlled house passe bills it will be spiced by the Senate Republicans to include whatever they want, if they want to pass the bill.

The rest of the democratic house passed bills are going to die a slow painful death, by the Leader of the Senate not even putting up the bill for discussion.

What is your take? Will it turn out to be a lame-duck Presidency?

It certainly will be ineffectual one way or another but foreign policy will be affected by the Paki controlled/infiltrated Dems

saip · Post by **saip** » 06 Nov 2020 04:51

About vote counting, this has never happened before. Reason: People went to the polls and voted. I did too before I moved to CA. It was not difficult it in NY and NJ. No lines and wait times. There you do not have many props. But in CA I find filling out the ballot (this year 4 pages long) tedious and difficult to do that. So I elected to receive my ballot by mail. Filled it out at home and dropped it off. Because of the Pandemic people chose to receive the ballots by mail and mailed them back or dropped them off. Probably first time ever millions of ballots have to be counted by hand ( India has been doing do that before the advent of EVMs and so had lot of experience in hand counting- really hand counting, I mean) Here paper ballots have to be verified by comparing the signature on the envelope, opened manually (they are using paper knives and NOT machines to open the envelopes). I worked for an order fulfilment company long time ago. They have machines that open the envelopes but I am sure this being the first time no such machines were used at any of the counting places. Then the ballots have to be taken out, flattened and fed to the machine to count. To do all this they needed the man power who are just volunteers, working at minimum wages, with no prior experience in this sort of thing. Even the supervisors have no experience in counting such large number of ballots. In one of the counting stations I heard the supervisor saying he does not have enough space to put more tables and get volunteers unless he gets rid of all the observers, which is not doable. As I said, when I worked for order fulfilment company it took me more than a week to get the hang of the system. In the beginning I was barely managing half of what others were doing. But these volunteers do not have that luxury of time. Normally when you vote at the booth and use the voting machines they do the counting and all the precincts do is tabulate the scores which is much faster. Counting a million paper ballots takes time whether we like it or not. May be next time they will be better prepared and use machines to open the envelopes, robots to pull the ballots out and feed it to the machine to read.