Biden Presidency impacts on India

[darshan]

Only one that they will read is the one from the italian lady.

[chetak]

India showed the willingness to get hands dirty and literally break the neck of PLA's belligerance. That should count for something in a world with a weakened US facing China. It will be hard for Biden to go full china pasand even if he wanted to. If India can shrug off a few occasional remarks on cashmere human rights and restrictions against NGO we.mmigt even have a better working relationship with Biden administration than with Trump, especially on the economic front. Both sides will have to take a few steps forward based on a leap of faith and meet each other in the middle. If it can happen then it might not be all that bad as a few of us are thinking.

for biden, there may be no self conflict in dealing with India and china.

he eases the pressure on the hans and they have much more latitude than we will ever have in terms of options and the range of opportunities and choices that they can and will be able to exercise.

once the amerikis ease off, the whites in europe will work in their individual self interests to survive this dismal post covid trade environment.

India will, as usual, figure quite low on the international totem pole of recovery.

[Rishirishi]

What will be the effect of Kamala Harris ? any inputs ?

[Sonugn]

We will have to wait for a couple of weeks for clear picture to appear. Lot depends on his cabinet - Secretary of State, Defence and NSA.
Michele Flournoy & Susan Rice are most likely candidates for Defence and Secretary of State. So expect more pressure on Kashmir and urban Naxals will be emboldened. Need to prioritize acquisition of Dhanush and ATAGS to ensure pakis pay a heavy price for any mischief.

Pressure will be on Pakistan to talk about POK.

Any Robin Rapahel types will need to be denied visa

[putnanja]

Even for China, if Biden is going to avoid confrontation like Trump did and go for negotiations, its easy for them to go easy on the Quad and other initiatives. So they really don't need India for that, or will use India more as a pawn in their negotiations with China. It will be back to status quo ante as of 2016 for US-China relations, where they will keep trying the failed policies and allow China to walk all over them and hand them all the technologies they need for short-term profit. Don't forget that for their climate control goals etc, they do need China's support. So there is going to be quid pro quo. Trump didn't care much for climate change, but its core pillar for democrats, more than facing chinese belligerence in S China sea.

India will have to now watch out for both known enemies like China/Pak on the border, and "friends" like US increasing its interference in Indian internal affairs. Expect pressure on FCRA, CAA, Art 370, and host of other issues from US, both directly and covertly through their assets. Don't forget that Indian RAW chief escaped to US through Nepal under Obama's watch when relations were supposedly good.

[Dilbu]

Joe Biden as new US President most likely to make Pakistan 'very happy' — Know why

New Delhi: As the world awaits the results of US Presidential election, Pakistan will be hoping Democrat Joe Biden assumes the President's office. Pakistan has been in trouble with the Donald Trump administration and would be hoping for Joe Biden's victory.

Joe Biden is an old diplomat and has had cordial relations with Pakistan and that is the reason why Pakistan is rooting for him.

In 2008, Pakistan had conferred Biden with the second highest civilian honor, 'Hilal-e-Pakistan'. Joe Biden and Senator Richard Lugar were beind the proposal to bring $ 1.5 billion non-military aid to Pakistan. Lugar too was awarded the 'Hilal-e-Pakistan'.

Asif Ali Zardari, then the President of Pakistan, had thanked the two for "consistently supporting Pakistan".

Also, Joe Biden had come out in support of Kashmiris and had compared the plight of Muslims in Kashmir with that of Rohingyas in Bangladesh and Uygar Muslims in China.

In a statement published on June 2020, around 10 months after India revoked Article 370 of the constitution, Biden had asked New Delhi to restore the rights of the Kashmiris.

According to experts have keenly watching Pakistan's foreign policy, think it will be good news for Pakistan if Joe Biden takes oath for office at the White House. Joe Biden can give a new dimension to relations with Pakistan in his foreign policy. In such a situation, it is hoped that during Biden's tenure, relations between Pakistan and America will be better than today.

[Dilbu]

Another view. Since it is ThePrint, they have thrown in some of their usual nonsense also into the article.
Biden as president will be good for India, perhaps not that good for Modi

In January 2015, in the backdrop of a ‘ghar wapsi (religious conversion of minorities)’ campaign by Hindu fundamentalists, Barack Obama spoke in Delhi just before leaving for the airport. In this address, he lectured India on religious tolerance. “No society is immune from the darkest impulses of men and too often, religion has been used to tap into those instead of the light of God. Every person has the right to practise any faith or none as he chooses without the fear of prosecution,” Obama said in a speech that was virtually ticking Modi off in his own capital.

Earlier this year, religious violence broke out in Delhi while President Trump was visiting. Trump refused to speak on the violence, or against the protests around India’s controversial new citizenship law — the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). “I want to leave that to India and hopefully they will make the right decision,” Trump said in a statement in New Delhi, which the American media saw as defending Modi.

Biden has expressed disapproval of the CAA and the National Register of Citizens (NRC), and Kamala Harris’ words on the abrogation of Article 370 should alarm New Delhi: “We have to remind the Kashmiris that they are not alone in the world. We are keeping a track on the situation. There is a need to intervene if the situation demands.”

Note that even under Trump, the US government hasn’t exactly been silent on the growing deficit of democracy in India. Alice Wells of the US State Department issued statement after statement disapproving of India on the CAA, detained Kashmiri politicians, and internet restrictions in Kashmir. If that’s what the Trump administration did, it is easy to guess that Biden will be louder.

India is no Saudi Arabia for the US that it would look the other way. Confronting China, the US is already stressing more on the good ol’ spiel about democracy, freedom and rights. It won’t be possible for Biden to make a big deal about democratic values and hug Modi three times a year if India’s democratic deficit keeps growing.

Trump’s inward-looking, isolationist stance has left the US’ friends such as India feeling betrayed. His protectionist policies have hurt the Indian economy and his xenophobia has hurt Indian immigration visa-seekers more than all the Muslim countries put together.

Donald Trump has forced India to not buy cheaper oil from Iran and Venezuela. (Trump thought Modi wouldn’t mind.) Trump forced India to buy more expensive oil and gas from the United States, even pushing for long-term commitments that aren’t viable. Despite the India-China border tensions, Donald Trump hasn’t given India waiver from an American law that threatens sanctions on countries purchasing arms from Russia.

Meanwhile, Trump raised tariffs on imports from India, on everything from steel to rubber, causing a “mini trade war” with India. He has removed preferential treatment given to Indian exports, further hurting the Indian economy at a time when it’s been bleeding. A host of changes to US visa policies have made it harder for US firms to hire Indians on H-1B work visas. This has hit the Indian outsourcing model hard.

India ratified the Paris climate accord in October 2016 under the presumption that the US will keep its word on the Green Climate Fund that would have invested in Indian renewables. But Trump didn’t want to shell out the money, and blamed India and China for walking out of the Paris Agreement.

A Democrat administration in the US is expected to be more reasoned, mature and act towards India as if it were a friend and not club it with China and other countries on issues of trade, climate change, oil and defence exports.

The Trump administration’s growing hard-line on China has aligned well with India at a time of growing Chinese aggression at the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Trump also did take a hard line on Pakistan, if only to avoid giving money to Islamabad. Yet in the bargain, he also ceded space to Islamabad in the Afghanistan peace talks.

A Democrat administration is likely to go back to the drawing board on the US-Iran nuclear deal, opening up not just Iranian oil but also strategic space for India with Iran in the Middle East. A Biden-Harris presidency may also look differently at the Paris Agreement, visas for Indian workers, and so on. All things considered, Biden should be good for India, even if he’s less keen to see relations with India in the personalised format that Modi prefers, and see them more as government-to-government relations.

That is how it should be. Over-personalised diplomacy has backfired for Modi with Nawaz Sharif (Pakistan) and Xi Jinping (China), and his stadium rallies with Trump will be an embarrassment should Biden win.

Not that Modi’s personalised style was able to tame Trump, who frequently lashed out at India and mimicked Modi, insults we swallowed without a whimper. A Biden presidency won’t embarrass us with offers such as mediation on Kashmir. Just look at how Trump recently insulted India by saying it has ‘filthy air’ and Biden tweeted saying that’s not how you talk about friends.

It is time for India and the US to put their national interests above domestic politics at a time of great Chinese expansionism. India getting a good trade deal with the United States alone will be worth a lot more than the sort of civilian honours that countries like Russia helpfully give Modi before a general election.

[Dilbu]

Explained: What does President-elect Joe Biden mean for India and its relationship with the US?

Biden was one of the key advocates of strengthening the Indo-US partnership, especially in strategic areas. During that time, the US officially declared its support for India’s membership in a reformed and expanded United Nations Security Council. This had been a key demand of successive Indian governments, which was fulfilled by Washington during Biden’s term as VP.

The Obama-Biden Administration also named India a “Major Defense Partner” – a status approved by the US Congress – which made it easier to share advanced and critical technology to India to strengthen defence ties. This was crucial since it was for the first time that any country was given this status, outside of the US’s traditional alliance system.

In fact, in August 2016, at the fag end of the Obama administration, the two sides signed the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), the first of the three “foundational pacts” for deeper military cooperation.

While the Trump administration has been extremely vocal in India’s support in the last six months of the border-stand-off with China, New Delhi will expect a similar approach from the Biden administration as well.

One will have to wait and watch if Biden follows the same path, but there could be nuancing of the language and the rhetoric from US officials.

“A Biden Administration will also work with India to support a rules-based and stable Indo-Pacific region in which no country, including China, is able to threaten its neighbours with impunity,” his campaign document says.

While Trump administration officials including Secretary of State Michael R Pompeo had been attacking the Communist Party of China quite openly, Biden administration’s language might be more calibrated.

Although some US Congressmen and women had raised red flags on the human rights situation following the revoking of Article 370 and passage of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act alongside the proposed nationwide NRC, the Trump administration had not taken any actions beyond making some perfunctory statements.

But with Democrats in power, the Indian government can expect some tough statements from the Biden administration on these issues.

Biden has been “disappointed by the measures that the Government of India has taken with the implementation and aftermath of the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in Assam and the passage of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act into law”, the Biden campaign’s policy paper had said.

Over the last 20 years, every US President — Bill Clinton, George W Bush, Barack Obama and Donald Trump — had differences on many issues, but if there was one common theme on which all of them agreed was this: a stronger relationship with India.

What that means is that there has been a tradition of bipartisan support in favour of better ties with India, and every US President has made it better than what he inherited from his predecessor over the last two decades.

So, to cut a long story short, there is no reason to believe that Biden will not continue the tradition – but of course, he will have his own style and nuances, and will put his personal stamp on the relationship.

[Dilbu]

What a Biden Administration Could Do – Or Not Do – for India’s Key Priorities

Regardless of who has been in power in Washington or Delhi, India’s relations with the US over the past two decades have largely remained politically smooth – with the only wrinkle being in trade and immigration issues. While market access has traditionally been a problematic area in the relationship, immigration issues flared up largely during the Donald Trump administration.

India’s key ask from the incoming Biden administration would be the restoration of GSP benefits, as well as the removal of tariffs on steel and aluminium. However, there is very little likelihood of even a limited trade deal between India and the US happening in the near future. With a new United States Trade Representative (USTR) set to take charge, all talks with foreign governments will be reviewed first. According to well-informed observers of India-US ties, the main difference in the trade negotiating position would be the addition of issues like human rights and climate change, which New Delhi usually bats away as “extraneous matters”.

Among all the priority areas for India, the issue of mobility for Indian workers may finally get some traction in the Biden administration. This had been a topic which was raised by India at various levels, but there the US government did not soften its stance in the last four years. While the COVID-19 pandemic will keep transportation links to a minimum, the removal of these quotas may not have an immediate impact – but will certainly be a ‘big ticket’ item to boast when President Biden and Prime Minister Narendra Modi have their first formal meeting.

The outgoing Trump administration had painted relations with China in stark good-evil terms. The Trumpian rhetorical flourish may disappear, but there is largely a bipartisan consensus in Washington that the time for a confrontation with China is right now. Therefore, there is not likely to be a major change in substance in Washington’s relations with Beijing, with the Biden administration also likely to be concerned about the spread of Chinese influence in critical advanced technologies. If China looks at relations with India through a US prism, then the Biden administration’s line and tone with Beijing could be the determining factor in the length of the stand-off at Ladakh.

During the Obama administration, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had taken a number of steps to reach out to Pakistan, including the visit to Lahore in 2015. It is likely that a Democratic administration may put pressure on New Delhi and Islamabad to bring down their mutual rhetoric and open channels for communications.

In his first year of presidency, Biden has stated that he will organise a summit of democracies, where countries will have to announce commitments in areas of anti-corruption, defending against authoritarianism and “advancing human rights in their own nations and abroad”.

With the Modi government increasingly seen in India and around the world as having made a clear authoritarian turn, navigating through any spotlight a new administration in Washington shines on human rights and the role of civil society in a democracy may become a challenge for New Delhi. However, the issue is unlikely to rock the basic strategic convergence between the two countries.

[Dilbu]

‘Predictable policies: A Joe Biden win may bode well for Indian markets’

There is a general feeling that while US policies with respect to India may not see a big change despite a change of leadership in US, there is a sense that a more predictable leader is better geopolitically and for the global equity markets.

“I think Biden is a much more predictable person and so the policies would be on expected lines and that should bring more stability. Since equity markets are risk markets, if you can lower volatility on policy front and make it a bit more predictable, it is good for the markets,” said Raamdeo Agrawal, chairman, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

There is also a sense that a Biden victory will see coming together of the global community as Trump had walked out of various treaties and had taken extreme positions on matters, including the Paris Accord. The global community may come together again as Trump had gone back on several deals including the Paris Agreement on climate change.

There is also a sense that Trump’s exit may also reduce the level of polarisation in the US society and get the country united, which is good for the world and markets.

[banrjeer]

2024 both India and us will have elections. before that there may be an effort to bolster the lefties of India.

Also it may be benificial for China to engineer a soft coup in pukestan. Get the puked off FATF and reduce their own burden. and induce resumption of aid from Biden.

These scenarios need to be gamed and preempted

[ramana]

What will be the effect of Kamala Harris ? any inputs ?

Close to zero for US VPs have minor political power except in case of ill health of President,

[M_Joshi]

What will be the effect of Kamala Harris ? any inputs ?

Close to zero for US VPs have minor political power except in case of ill health of President,

She was voted the most Liberal US Senator in 2019.
https://govtrackinsider.com/our-ideolog ... e1d488ee20

She's right there with AOC & other leftists on the liberal agenda. Expect full overt & covert support to BIF forces in India.

Biden maybe a dud & might not be able to do enough to stop diminishing US influence & rising Chinese dominance, if Harris gets the seat due to Biden's health issues then the downfall will only increase multifold.

Trump made a mistake of disturbing the gravy boat of globalist as well as Establishment Dems & Republicans both. Would be interesting to see how Trump responds when he finally leaves White House. Would be interesting if he launches a Media network both online & on TV.

[Cyrano]

I've long noticed in my professional life, that the first interactions between 2 persons/entities in an asymmetric power equation are quite determining for how the relationship will pan out over time. This happens between employees and managers, entrepreneurs and investors, vendors and big clients. Its the first few moments of contact when the 2 sides, especially the more powerful side "sizes up" the less powerful side and determines if they can dominate/need to collaborate/see as threat/see as irrelevant. The more powerful entity is constantly solicited by many, so they typically have little time for those who can't be clearly assessed and therefore tend to ignore such "question marks" in their future plans. Once an assessment is made, it becomes extremely hard to change the attitude later. The "respect" earned in the initial exchanges also lasts for a long time. Any lines & redlines the more powerful entity is clearly made aware of, also tend to be remembered quite well. Therefore, its in the interest of the less powerful entity to be clear about in its own mind and clearly and appropriately communicate these, very early and try to shape the relationship. Of course, this doesn't mean to be naive and open all books, not everything needs to be said, the smart ones hedge their bets and keep a trick or two up their sleeve, for some future date.

Governments and heads of state are no different. There is obviously an asymmetry of power between US & India. A new set of people will soon assume power in the US. Many in this forum have expressed concerns on the upcoming Biden administration on a bunch of matters.

So if India were to adroitly communicate a set of rules of engagement, where _we_ draw the lines, where _our_ red lines are, what would they be? Lets list the top 5 may be max 7 points.

[vera_k]

#1 - No terrorist attacks in India joining with the ISI+INC nexus.

[Cain Marko]

TBH I'm not too concerned about the lefties getting too much say under the Biden admin. He is way to centrist for that, and most of the people cueing up to positions in his admin are republican-lite. They will not tolerate AOC types and their agenda. The latter have served their function in destabilizing the social fabric so as to get Trump out. Now that their function is done, they will be relegated to the sidelines. The Islamists might fare better - so occasional sermonizing towards India can't be ruled out, but nothing really to upset the applecart.

The decision-makers have decided to make India as a bulwark vs China, and in the ME as well. This will not change, the die is cast. Be it the Quad or the increased bonhomie between US, Israel, Gulf states and India. The only real question is Iran - will Biden go back to the Obama deal and try to coopt the Iranians or will he try to further the original agenda of regime change there? My guess is the former is a more viable option. The reason for the meddling in the ME is now almost gone - (the Saudi/Gulf pipeline via Syria).

IOWs, if India does more Balakots or even makes a move on GB, expect US to stay quiet (or at most do "kadi ninda") and even support in international circles. At least covertly. IOWs, the idea that TSP will suddenly land windfall gains and the gumption to conduct more terror attacks in India doesn't hold water imho.

WRT China, the COVID crisis has accelerated the need to check PRC hegemony. Suppliers will be diversified and every stone turned so as to reduce Chinese grip on US companies.

[nam]

So a major change like 370 invokes response after 10 months, only during the election campaign! GoI will manage it. A few arms sale in return for the silence. As long as there is no major violence, we will be fine.

In a statement published on June 2020, around 10 months after India revoked Article 370 of the constitution, Biden had asked New Delhi to restore the rights of the Kashmiris.

Pak has the FATF albatross around it's neck. We will keep pointing towards it, whenever we are asked to "talk".

[Cain Marko]

So a major change like 370 invokes response after 10 months, only during the election campaign! GoI will manage it. A few arms sale in return for the silence. As long as there is no major violence, we will be fine. .

Yup. That's my guess too.

[Dilbu]

NYT says Biden might reverse the China policy of Trump. This may affect relationship with India as well.
Biden to Face Long List of Foreign Challenges, With China No. 1

Nothing is more urgent, in the eyes of many experts, than reversing the downward trajectory of relations with China, the economic superpower and geopolitical rival that Mr. Trump has engaged in what many are calling a new Cold War. Disputes over trade, the South China Sea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and technology have metastasized during Mr. Trump’s term, his critics say, worsened by the president’s racist declarations that China infected the world with the coronavirus and should be held accountable.

“China is kind of the radioactive core of America’s foreign policy issues,” said Orville Schell, director of the Asia Society’s Center on U.S.-China Relations.

Mr. Biden has vowed to reverse what he called the “dangerous failure” of Mr. Trump’s Iran policy, which repudiated the 2015 nuclear agreement and replaced it with tightening sanctions that have caused deep economic damage in Iran and left the United States largely isolated on this issue.

Mr. Biden has offered to rejoin the agreement, which constricts Iran’s nuclear capabilities if Tehran adheres to its provisions and commits to further negotiations. He also has pledged to immediately nullify Mr. Trump’s travel ban affecting Iran and several other Muslim-majority countries.

While Mr. Trump often disparaged the European Union and strongly encouraged Britain’s exit from the bloc, Mr. Biden has expressed the opposite position. Like former President Barack Obama, he supported close American relations with bloc leaders and opposed Brexit.

Mr. Biden’s ascendance could prove especially awkward for Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain, who had embraced Mr. Trump and had been counting on achieving a trade deal with the United States before his country’s divorce from the bloc takes full effect. Mr. Biden may be in no hurry to complete such an agreement.

“On Trump’s watch, the North’s nuclear weapons program has grown apace, its missile capabilities have expanded, and Pyongyang can now target the United States with an ICBM,” said Evans J.R. Revere, a former State Department official and expert on North Korea. “That is the legacy that Trump will soon pass on to Biden, and it will be an enormous burden.”

Mr. Biden has long asserted that he would take a much harder line with Russia than Mr. Trump, who questioned NATO’s usefulness, doubted intelligence warnings on Russia’s interference in U.S. elections, admired President Vladimir V. Putin, and said that improving American relations with the Kremlin would benefit all. Mr. Biden, who as vice president pushed for sanctions against Russia over its annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula in 2014 — the biggest illegal land seizure in Europe since World War II — might seek to extend those sanctions and take other punitive steps

Mr. Biden is expected to reverse many of the isolationist and anti-immigrant steps taken during the Trump administration, which are widely seen by Mr. Trump’s critics as shameful stains on American standing in the world. Mr. Biden has said he would disband Mr. Trump’s immigration restrictions, stop construction of his border wall with Mexico, expand resources for immigrants and provide a path to citizenship for people living in the United States illegally.

[Cyrano]

In a statement published on June 2020, around 10 months after India revoked Article 370 of the constitution, Biden had asked New Delhi to restore the rights of the Kashmiris.

It needs to be explained to him in terms he understands that revoking Art 370 was done to achieve precisely that. So that the Kashmiris can enjoy the same rights, equality under law and freedoms as the remaining 1.3 billion democratic citizen of India. Art 370 was a historic relic of a discriminatory law enacted in unique circumstances which had been misused for decades. Repealing it is modern and progressive.

Again and again until that bogey is buried for good.

[idan]

What will be the effect of Kamala Harris ? any inputs ?

Close to zero for US VPs have minor political power except in case of ill health of President,

Biden is oldest POTUS and in many ways of poor health. When it comes to policy making, knowing the ambitious person Kamala is, she will influence Biden very strongly. Somehow, she has come out to be very sly and anti-Indian inspite of her South Indian roots and Jewish husband.

[nam]

It is quite simple. Tell Biden that getting 370 means women have no property rights if they marry someone from outside the state or the gay community have no rights. Moreover people who have lived in J&K from 6 decades will go back to becoming non-domicile.

Isn't liberal values what he stood for?

[Dilbu]

Time Magazine
How a Joe Biden Presidency Could Change U.S.-India Relations

Since his re-election in 2019, Modi has pushed through a series of policies seen by many in the country as unduly targeting India’s Muslim minority, including the revocation of Muslim-majority Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status and a new citizenship act that makes it easier for adherents of most large faiths practiced in South Asia, except Islam, to claim citizenship in India. Modi’s government has also sought to suppress dissent, most recently forcing the Indian branch of Amnesty International to shut down through legal pressure, which the rights group said was part of a “deliberate attempt by the government of India to stoke a climate of fear and dismantle the critical voices in India.”

Biden and Harris have both spoken out against India’s human rights violations and Modi’s nationalist leadership. In his Agenda for Muslim-American Communities, Biden condemned the Modi government’s new citizenship act and a separate attempt to build a population register that could provide future justification to expel or intern foreigners, calling the projects “inconsistent with the country’s long tradition of secularism and with sustaining a multi-ethnic and multi-religious democracy.”

As the strategic relationship between the U.S. and India deepened, Trump looked away from what Human Rights Watch has described as “mounting human rights abuses” under Modi’s rule in India. “The relationship between Modi and Trump has been very mutually beneficial,” says Ayushman Kaul, a South Asia research assistant at the Atlantic Council, a think tank. “He has essentially said, America First means I’m not prying in your business if you don’t comment on my business. Modi knows that he’s not receiving the kind of pushback that he would be under a Biden presidency.”

While the Biden campaign has committed to further strengthening the security ties between the U.S. and India, there’s a big question mark over how strongly it will push back against the Indian government’s rights abuses. “The U.S. would not go in and intervene in domestic matters in India beyond a certain point,” says Surupa Gupta, a professor at University of Mary Washington’s Department of Political Science and International Affairs.

Kashmiri activists in the U.S. see the incoming Administration as an opening that they hope might bring an end to the protracted political crisis. “Biden and Harris recognize that Kashmir is an issue that has no military solution and that it must be resolved through dialogue between the Kashmiri leadership, India and Pakistan,” says Ghulam N. Mir, President of the World Kashmir Awareness Forum, in a statement to TIME. “To achieve peace in Kashmir, and put an end to seven decades of human rights abuses, the U.S. government will have to play an active role.”

But experts say that, when in office, Biden is likely to temper public criticism of India. “The Biden team understands that lecturing India publicly or threatening it publicly will not go down well, and will not achieve any change that they want to see,” says Tanvi Madan, director of the India Project at the Brookings Institution. “I suspect you might have a Biden Administration that is more likely to bring these issues up privately [than the Trump Administration]. But I think publicly, you’ll see a continuation of what we saw both Obama and Trump do, which is alluding to these issues through talking about the importance for the world of India as a diverse, tolerant democracy.”

Biden has committed to strengthening the military cooperation between the U.S. and India. But if he eventually decides to ease the pressure on China, it could leave India high and dry. “If American policy ends up going slightly easier on China than Trump did, and going after Russia, then that complicates India’s position,” says James Crabtree, an associate fellow at the Asia-Pacific program of Chatham House, a foreign-affairs research institute. “[India] wouldn’t be too keen on that, given they have good relations with Russia.”

[Cyrano]

nam ji, Exactly !!

[Cyrano]

I would expect a flurry of articles such as in Time in the coming days from a cross section of old guard media houses. These groups are trying to place their narrative quickly in the centre of the debate since they see an opportunity to influence the new left leaning dispensation's views.

These need to be countered and debunked with data, evidence and counter narrative. Thats why I'm calling for the GOI & EAM to engage early, engage strongly and bury these bogeys. And we at BR can do our part by writing reasoned ripostes to such drivel.

America too has a lot to gain by engaging constructively with India as it goes about regaining its rightful place in a rules based world order. India maintained a steady relationship _even with Trump_ because we believe in the same core values of equality, democracy and freedom as the American people and we want both countries to work towards mutually beneficial outcomes.

[kirpalbasra]

Disappointed Trump has lost something does not feel right about Dems victory and why Hillary and Obama very quite all of a sudden. Hope relations are good with Biden and co but feel India is in for a rocky ride. All the muslims are jumping up for joy in UK as they feel they have a friend in the white house and it will be back to normal and they will get Kashmire this time. Biden has a lot of anti India and pro pak in his team. I also hear wispears from pro paki groups if white house helps then get Kashmire then they might recognise Israel in return now that would be a feather in Bidens cap.

[darshhan]

While I doubt Israel is that desperate to be recognized by Pakistan, it is clear that Namo & Team will have to move fast on both diplomatic and military fronts to preempt both China and Pakistan as well as other Breaking India forces. India's strategic leadership has its task cut out. In the coming days their capability will be tested. Especially our honorable EAM Shri Jaishankar and our NSA Shri Ajit Doval. Some deft diplomacy is the need of hour.

Hopefully Biden's team consists of practical and not ideological people. Probably wouldn't matter that much anyway since Deep state is back and it has its own priority list where India is very low on that list.

[darshhan]

Some KPIs for our diplomats for the next four years

1. We continue movement towards formalising of Quad
2. Getting Biden administration to endorse redistribution of American investment from China to other countries including India.
3. Ensuring that US honors its agreements with India like BECA etc in case of a conflict with China.
4. More sanctions against China and chinese entities like Huawei.
5. Forward movement on Tibet and Taiwan

6. Ensuring that Pakistan stays on FATF grey list i.e if they are not black listed
7. Ensuring that Military aid to Pakistan is not resumed
8. Ensuring seat for India in any negotiations regarding Afghanistan.

These are the minimum points I could think of. Feel free to add.

[Dilbu]

The Wire
Biden-Harris Will Bring Continuity for Delhi But Some Challenges Too

Conventional wisdom has it that the Republicans are good for India and Democrats a problem. The former are hard-headed realists, while the latter tend to be woolly-headed liberals, worried about issues like human rights.

That is largely a folk tale. When push comes to shove, the Democrats, from John Kennedy to Barack Obama have been as good for India as the Republicans from Dwight Eisenhower to Donald Trump. That is because like all US presidents they have largely followed their perception of their national interests. There have been presidents like Richard Nixon who have allowed personal views to influence their approach, or Trump who made things look outsized with his shared penchant for rallies with Narendra Modi. But what has driven American policy in his administration has been the same thing that got Obama to India on Republic Day 2015 to sign the declaration on the US-India joint strategic vision on the Asia Pacific and the Indian Ocean.

If Trump overlooked issues like human rights, or the Modi government’s attempts to marginalise and demonise Muslims, it is because he did the same when it came to those whom he considered “friends” – Jair Bolsanaro, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin and even Kim Jong Un.

To understand the realist perspective in which the Biden policy will unfold, we need to get a measure of the Indo-US relationship in the context of China. Contrary to what many believe, the US is not relying on India to take on China in the Indo-Pacific. The Indian military capacity is puny and its reach doesn’t go beyond its immediate neighbourhood. The size of India’s economy may kick in some day, but that is still decades away. Whether it is the western Pacific, or the Indian Ocean, the Americans are by far the biggest military power and will remain so for the next two decades at least.
So, India plays a kind of symbolic role here – a respected regional power with significant diplomatic equities in the Indian Ocean region (IOR) and South Asia. Its voice is heard around the world, and given its size and potential, it adds heft to the coalition arrayed against Beijing, not to make war, but to push it in the direction of playing by the American rules.

From the American point of view, it has been a long-term project to have India as part of its global alliance system. Again, this is not about war, but deterrence and stability that the US needs to maintain its global primacy. Congruence of policy means the US doesn’t have to worry about Sri Lanka, Bangladesh or Myanmar going up in smoke, India can handle that job. In the last two decades, that project has been moving along at a speed inversely proportional to the rate at which the gap in the comprehensive national power of India and China is increasing.

At this stage, India clearly needs the US. Its economy is in a rut and it has reached a dead end with its military modernisation. Propaganda may convince you that five Rafale aircraft can tilt the balance against China, but the reality, according to defence finance expert Amit Cowshish, is that “no enhancement of outlay will ever be enough” to cope with India’s tangled defence modernisation. As for reform, banning foreign booze in canteens, increasing the retirement age of officers or snipping the pensions of prematurely retiring officers is to whistle in the dark.

Then there is the Chinese challenge – on our borders, in our South Asian region and the IOR. In August, Biden made it a point to say he would back India against “threats on the border” without specifying China. But the US is not about to fight our battles for us, and neither do we expect them to do so. This is more about taking on the 1,000 pound gorilla named China, again, not militarily, but on issues like technology, connectivity, development of infrastructure and so on. And this is to be done through coalition-making, with the US leading and countries like Japan, Australia, Singapore, and increasingly the European Union, playing their role. The key feature of the Biden-Harris foreign policy will be an emphasis on multilateralism, rather than the chaotic ‘America First’ policy of Trump.

US under Biden may also not be confrontationist enough for India’s liking, especially in our current Line of Actual Control predicament. Despite Trump, the US still has a dense relationship with Beijing with trade in goods and services topping $634 billion in 2019. Trump initiated the process of decoupling, but the Biden administration is likely to make it less confrontational and more systematic, a process encouraged by the COVID-19 experience, to rejig supply chains to ensure there is no over-dependence on one particular region or country. Much more so than Trump, Biden also realizes that the US lives in the same world as China. There are important world order issues – climate change, trade rules, proliferation, terrorism – where he needs China’s cooperation, regardless of the ongoing US-China competition.

But the real push in the relationship will come from the officials selected at key positions – the assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asia, or the counterpart who deals with India in the Department of Defence. Alice Wells has been acting in the Department of State as assistant secretary is 2017. As for defence, it is difficult to find any official who has the kind of interest and commitment to a good relationship like former defence secretary Ashton Carter.

Biden himself has had considerable interest in American foreign policy, having been the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations committee at several points in time in the 2000s when the Indo-US nuclear deal came up. According to Foreign Policy, Biden had a formidable informal team of advisers for his campaign. They comprised 49 working groups and two former State Department officials, Sumona Guha and Tom West, lead the group on South Asia. Some of these advisers may show up at various levels in the new administration.

As for Kamala Harris, her views on foreign policy are close to those of Biden and she has appointed Indian American Sabrina Singh as her press secretary. Sabrina is the granddaughter of the legendary J.J. Singh, who founded the India League of America in the 1940s. In the August 2020 event featuring “South Asians for Biden”, Harris invoked Mahatma Gandhi and said that India’s freedom struggle spoke for values like tolerance, pluralism and diversity.” None of this is likely to make for a comfortable relationship with the current dispensation in New Delhi.

[greatde]

In 2014, many here thought US relations would be down, and Modi would not visit or deal with them due to visa ban.

Turns out differently, and both countries ties improved. Similar case with Middle East. Its more about pro-Pakistan than pro-India, India cant afford a pro-Pakistan stance by its so called allies.

[Sicanta]

Don't know if this survey results have been posted here before :

https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/10/1 ... -pub-82929

How Will Indian Americans Vote? Results From the 2020 Indian American Attitudes Survey

[Karan M]

Problem is our IFS is structurally ill equipped to aggressively lobby and articulate Indias POV, bar the efforts of a handful of bigwigs like Jaishankar. We need an aggressive and articulate wordsmith like Tharoor, as odious as that guy is. Let's see how Biden and co impact India. Doubt the courts will reverse Bidens win despite widespread reports of shady counting etc.

[M_Joshi]

Blueprint of the next 4 years of Khan's global agenda.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles ... -HE_YL7oHc

Straight from the horse's mouth

By Joseph R. Biden, Jr.
March/April 2020

I will also take steps to tackle the self-dealing, conflicts of interest, dark money, and rank corruption that are serving narrow, private, or foreign agendas and undermining our democracy. That starts by fighting for a constitutional amendment to completely eliminate private dollars from federal elections. In addition, I will propose a law to strengthen prohibitions on foreign nationals or governments trying to influence U.S. federal, state, or local elections and direct a new independent agency—the Commission on Federal Ethics—to ensure vigorous and unified enforcement of this and other anticorruption laws. The lack of transparency in our campaign finance system, combined with extensive foreign money laundering, creates a significant vulnerability. We need to close the loopholes that corrupt our democracy.

From Hong Kong to Sudan, Chile to Lebanon, citizens are once more reminding us of the common yearning for honest governance and the universal abhorrence of corruption.

During my first year in office, the United States will organize and host a global Summit for Democracy to renew the spirit and shared purpose of the nations of the free world. It will bring together the world’s democracies to strengthen our democratic institutions, honestly confront nations that are backsliding, and forge a common agenda. Building on the successful model instituted during the Obama-Biden administration with the Nuclear Security Summit, the United States will prioritize results by galvanizing significant new country commitments in three areas: fighting corruption, defending against authoritarianism, and advancing human rights in their own nations and abroad.

The Summit for Democracy will also include civil society organizations from around the world that stand on the frontlines in defense of democracy. And the summit members will issue a call to action for the private sector, including technology companies and social media giants, which must recognize their responsibilities and overwhelming interest in preserving democratic societies and protecting free speech. At the same time, free speech cannot serve as a license for technology and social media companies to facilitate the spread of malicious lies. Those companies must act to ensure that their tools and platforms are not empowering the surveillance state, gutting privacy, facilitating repression in China and elsewhere, spreading hate and misinformation, spurring people to violence, or remaining susceptible to other misuse.

Second, my administration will equip Americans to succeed in the global economy—with a foreign policy for the middle class. To win the competition for the future against China or anyone else, the United States must sharpen its innovative edge and unite the economic might of democracies around the world to counter abusive economic practices and reduce inequality.

A foreign policy for the middle class will also work to make sure the rules of the international economy are not rigged against the United States—because when American businesses compete on a fair playing field, they win. I believe in fair trade. More than 95 percent of the world’s population lives beyond our borders—we want to tap those markets. We need to be able to build the very best in the United States and sell the very best around the world. That means taking down trade barriers that penalize Americans and resisting a dangerous global slide toward protectionism.

China represents a special challenge. I have spent many hours with its leaders, and I understand what we are up against. China is playing the long game by extending its global reach, promoting its own political model, and investing(investing, not stealing) in the technologies of the future.

The United States does need to get tough with China. If China has its way, it will keep robbing the United States and American companies of their technology and intellectual property. It will also keep using subsidies to give its state-owned enterprises an unfair advantage—and a leg up on dominating the technologies and industries of the future.

The most effective way to meet that challenge is to build a united front of U.S. allies and partners to confront China’s abusive behaviors and human rights violations, even as we seek to cooperate with Beijing on issues where our interests converge, such as climate change, nonproliferation, and global health security. On its own, the United States represents about a quarter of global GDP. When we join together with fellow democracies, our strength more than doubles. China can’t afford to ignore more than half the global economy. That gives us substantial leverage to shape the rules of the road on everything from the environment to labor, trade, technology, and transparency, so they continue to reflect democratic interests and values.

It is past time to end the forever wars, which have cost the United States untold blood and treasure. As I have long argued, we should bring the vast majority of our troops home from the wars in Afghanistan and the Middle East and narrowly define our mission as defeating al Qaeda and the Islamic State (or ISIS). We should also end our support for the Saudi-led war in Yemen. We must maintain our focus on counterterrorism, around the world and at home, but staying entrenched in unwinnable conflicts drains our capacity to lead on other issues that require our attention, and it prevents us from rebuilding the other instruments of American power.

To counter Russian aggression, we must keep the alliance’s military capabilities sharp while also expanding its capacity to take on nontraditional threats, such as weaponized corruption, disinformation, and cybertheft. We must impose real costs on Russia for its violations of international norms and stand with Russian civil society, which has bravely stood up time and again against President Vladimir Putin’s kleptocratic authoritarian system.(No mention of Xi or word of imposing real costs on China.)

We need to fortify our collective capabilities with democratic friends beyond North America and Europe by reinvesting in our treaty alliances with Australia, Japan, and South Korea and deepening partnerships from India to Indonesia to advance shared values in a region that will determine the United States’ future.

For example, a Biden administration will join together with the United States’ democratic allies to develop secure, private-sector-led 5G networks that do not leave any community, rural or low income, behind.

Putin wants to tell himself, and anyone else he can dupe into believing him, that the liberal idea is “obsolete.” But he does so because he is afraid of its power.

To me he still views Russia as primary threat to the US & China as only a competitor againt whom US needs to compete & win economically & technologically.

[KJo]

What will be the effect of Kamala Harris ? any inputs ?

Close to zero for US VPs have minor political power except in case of ill health of President,

Not always. Cheney ran the Presidency from the back in GWB's time.
Kamala seems to be pushy and I don't think she will accept Biden as the boss. I foresee some conflict as she asserts herself and plays the woman/victim card to get her way.

[Cyrano]

Problem is our IFS is structurally ill equipped to aggressively lobby and articulate Indias POV, bar the efforts of a handful of bigwigs like Jaishankar. We need an aggressive and articulate wordsmith like Tharoor, as odious as that guy is. Let's see how Biden and co impact India. Doubt the courts will reverse Bidens win despite widespread reports of shady counting etc.

I remember Jaishankar in one interview a few months ago, speaking about the restructuring of the EA Ministry he did, and the budget he got vs the budget he needs. He tried his best not to complain, but one could see that he is quite constrained in terms of number of people, skills, mindset and technology. He is trying to the best with what he has and expand carefully.

Thats why leveraging PIOs, Indian corporates and brand India to the max is v v important.

[chetak]

via @AmbassadorDeo in livemint

[Amber G.]

Wow!
The second most powerful officials in both the US and the UK are persons of Indian origin!
(Kamala Harris and Rishi Sunak)

[Mort Walker]

^^^She does NOT identify herself as Indian origin. She says "I am a black girl from Oakland my mother was from India". Rishi Sunak identifies himself as Indian and his wife is Akshata Murthy, daughter of Infosys founder N. R. Narayana Murthy. Kamala Harris is married to a white Hollywood attorney, and is politician who will do anything to promote herself.

[Karan M]

Wow!
The second most powerful officials in both the US and the UK are women of Indian origin!
(Kamala Harris and Rishi Sunak)

Rishi Sunak is a guy.

[Rishirishi]

Close to zero for US VPs have minor political power except in case of ill health of President,

Not always. Cheney ran the Presidency from the back in GWB's time.
Kamala seems to be pushy and I don't think she will accept Biden as the boss. I foresee some conflict as she asserts herself and plays the woman/victim card to get her way.

Have to agree here. Biden will be 78 years old and has limited stamina. He will need active support of Kamala. Biden/Harris has to cater for both the Muslim and Indian voters. All votes are very important, as this election shows. So my speculation is that they will try to balance the India/Pakistan issue, in public. Question is they see Trumps reflection in Modhi (will be very bad).

But behind back doors, i think Biden will keep on the support to India. USA is not as powerful as it used to be only 5 years ago. Equation has changed. USA needs Indian pressure to confront China.