India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 09 Nov 2020 18:59

Sad we lost 4 of our men, some reports saying this was a SSG BAT operation

https://www.wionews.com/india-news/four ... tor-341703

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 10 Nov 2020 10:55

Intense arty fire on targets of opportunity is the way in which we must treat the scum across the border. It will make it more difficult for infiltration .Areas infiltrated ,where we've suffered casualties should be pasted royally on the other side as punishment. Said many a time,the Pakis behave only when their men in uniform get roasted.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 10 Nov 2020 13:35

We need to 1) Build up capabilities 2) have real time intelligence.

Then proactively target, miltary targets such as miltary trucks jeeps, helicopters at Helipads etc,

We will also have to Target, bridges, Cell phone towers, electricity infrastructure,

This should over a period of time completely degrade Paki miltary capability near the LOC. We need to keep degrading them.

Lisa · Post by **Lisa** » 11 Nov 2020 01:32

We continue to allow pukistan to dictate the agenda. All the above is a reaction to THEIR actions. Until this equilibrium moves in our direction these killings will go on. When is somebody going to change this policy at a fundamental level?

40 years and still the same old song, no results and other than 2 cross border ventures no REAL policy deviation. Is there a number of dead that is needed to qualify this as failure? Are waiting for this number and if not what's the wait for?

When is someone going to wake up and take this war to their homes? When?

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 11 Nov 2020 02:04

^^^100 %

Instil fear with a massive unannounced missile attack on Pindi, and _then_ make a statement that its punishment for sending terrorists to India. Add the next attack will also be unannounced, and will double in intensity if any further attacks or attempts are made. Attack 2x, 2 days later, irrespective.

Repeat every few weeks, as long as needed. No talks. None will be needed.

When they start calling Modi a mad man, you know fear has been instilled.

No war will happen, the whole world will support.

S_Madhukar · Post by **S_Madhukar** » 11 Nov 2020 02:10

Aditya_V wrote:We need to 1) Build up capabilities 2) have real time intelligence.

Then proactively target, miltary targets such as miltary trucks jeeps, helicopters at Helipads etc,

We will also have to Target, bridges, Cell phone towers, electricity infrastructure,

This should over a period of time completely degrade Paki miltary capability near the LOC. We need to keep degrading them.

+10
There is so much tactically that we can do even if not targeting Puki soldiers directly... harass by targetting comms towers, radio stations, other misc equipment that facilitate infiltration .. let then run around ducking and fixing things at their end so they dont have time men and material to launch against us... does our army and MoD only follow British/Soviet era war manuals or do they even learn anything from working with Israelis and other forces in terms of strategy... also while this infiltration nonsense is going on what stops us from developing our own small/cluster of satellites for our LoC and setting up some kind of pseudo real time intelligence ... just because no one has done it should not stop us...how are we going to target PoK when we are so used to reactive strategies...

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 11 Nov 2020 02:36

This should over a period of time completely degrade Paki miltary capability near the LOC. We need to keep degrading them.

This strategy, adopted since many years by a country of our size and capability is...... degrading.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 11 Nov 2020 03:34

Even the high and mighty have always done that and our enemies have done this for 1000 years wars are not fought on an itch, you first degrade the enemies capabilities for years, build up ones strength, enhance enemy internal differences and then fight.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 11 Nov 2020 13:50

My point is that India has been degrading Pak military capability in many ways for years now. However, their strategy of using low cost expendable jihadis doesn't seem to get impacted significantly, as borne out by continued raising, training, funding and support of jihadis and their uninterrupted infiltration into India to carry out attacks.

Ever since India has shut the door on talks asking Pak to clean up its terror infrastructure, and has mostly succeeded in making Pak an international pariah with FAFT and other levers, they have realised that any political / diplomatic options to get even with us have dwindled, and have therefore fallen back on the jihadi option as the only "affordable" main stay of their India policy.

Hereon, our current policies wrt Pak will only generate diminishing returns. Of course those policies must continue but some more sticks need to be wielded to break the back of Pak military's back and its stranglehold on the country once and for all. And we must not wait for Pulwama 2.0 or some other terror attack to do that.

If GoI believes it has the snakehead under its boot, it must be crushed now.

Lisa · Post by **Lisa** » 11 Nov 2020 14:05

Cyrano wrote:^^^100 %

Instil fear with a massive unannounced missile attack on Pindi, and _then_ make a statement that its punishment for sending terrorists to India. Add the next attack will also be unannounced, and will double in intensity if any further attacks or attempts are made. Attack 2x, 2 days later, irrespective.

Repeat every few weeks, as long as needed. No talks. None will be needed.

When they start calling Modi a mad man, you know fear has been instilled.

No war will happen, the whole world will support.

Sir, this is not enough.

Fear=Change LOC

Publicly announce this LOC change as a cost we have imposed for terrorism. Then watch. Let THEM react.

abhishekm · Post by **abhishekm** » 11 Nov 2020 14:07

And so it begins!

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/india-c ... -topscroll

Quoted from this article:

As per the disengagement plan which is to be carried out in three steps in one week from the talks in the Pangong lake area, the armoured vehicles including tanks and armoured personnel carriers were to be moved back from their frontline deployment to a significant distance from the Line of Actual Control (LAC) by both sides, sources told ANI.

In the second step to be carried out near the northern bank on the Pangong Lake, both sides were supposed to withdraw around 30 per cent of troops every day for three days. The Indian side would be coming close to its administrative Dhan Singh Thapa post while the Chinese had consented to go back to their position east of Finger 8.

In the third and last step, the two sides were to withdraw from their respective positions from the frontline along the southern bank of Pangong Lake area which includes the heights and territories around Chushul and Rezang La area.

tsarkar · Post by **tsarkar** » 11 Nov 2020 14:19

abhishekm wrote:And so it begins!

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/india-c ... -topscroll

Quoted from this article:

As per the disengagement plan which is to be carried out in three steps in one week from the talks in the Pangong lake area, the armoured vehicles including tanks and armoured personnel carriers were to be moved back from their frontline deployment to a significant distance from the Line of Actual Control (LAC) by both sides, sources told ANI.

In the second step to be carried out near the northern bank on the Pangong Lake, both sides were supposed to withdraw around 30 per cent of troops every day for three days. The Indian side would be coming close to its administrative Dhan Singh Thapa post while the Chinese had consented to go back to their position east of Finger 8.

In the third and last step, the two sides were to withdraw from their respective positions from the frontline along the southern bank of Pangong Lake area which includes the heights and territories around Chushul and Rezang La area.

What about disengagement in the Depsang Plains? The Chinese can threaten Siachen from Depsang Plains and their incursions bring DBO Airfield within artillery range and it is our most vulnerable area.

Secondly, while "disengagement" is a politically correct word, India is deployed in Indian territory as per Chinese perception of LAC. What we need is restoration of status quo ante like patrolling rights as existing before April 2020.

We fell into the "disengagement" trap at Doklam. As per Col. Vinayak Bhat's assessment -

https://theprint.in/defence/new-trouble ... lam/29561/

New visuals show PLA deployment is close to last year’s face-off point and hasn’t thinned down as Indian Army chief Gen. Rawat claimed last week.

New Delhi: Almost five months after India and China agreed to end their tense military face-off in the Himalayan region of Doklam, Beijing has almost completely taken control of the northern side of the disputed plateau, latest satellite images accessed by ThePrint show.

The new images show concrete posts, seven helipads, new trenches and several dozen armoured vehicles close to the point where the Indian Army and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops were locked in a 72-day confrontation last year.

As per this image, the Chinese are well inside Bhutan whose security India guarantees.

So what "safeguards" do we have that Chinese will respect the "disengagement" and not reoccupy the areas they advanced?

Personally I would rather we kept occupying the heights we currently hold.

nam · Post by **nam** » 11 Nov 2020 15:22

Unless the Chinese can guard every km of the LAC, even in winter, there is enough space for us to crossover, if the Chinis decide to attempt the same again.

Chinese have their "perception" of LAC, because we allow it. This has been the core problem on LAC since 62.

I am yet to understand why places like Srijap are in Chini control, when PLA has been vacating the area for winter since 62!

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 11 Nov 2020 15:32

They won't be vacating positions this winter. We shouldn't be either. For all practical purposes, Ladhak has been Sachinised.

mihir.mehta · Post by **mihir.mehta** » 11 Nov 2020 17:00

Checkout this image from detresfa_

https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/13 ... 52/photo/1

Chinese building a new road to Spangur Gap, along the northern bank behind a hill. Doesn't make a huge difference but yes - is further away from our positions and safer comparatively.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 11 Nov 2020 19:21

Aditya_V wrote:Even the high and mighty have always done that and our enemies have done this for 1000 years wars are not fought on an itch, you first degrade the enemies capabilities for years, build up ones strength, enhance enemy internal differences and then fight.

That is absolutely right. One should never rush into a war.The key issue is timing. Don't be too hasty and neither be too patient. Or you will lose your advantage. Although I do think that right time to strike Pakistan is almost there(i.e in 1-2 years). I will try to write a detailed post on this soon.

RajaRudra · Post by **RajaRudra** » 11 Nov 2020 20:43

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... BvK7f1Gkf3

In the third and last step, the two sides were to withdraw from their respective positions from the frontline along the southern bank of Pangong Lake area which includes the heights and territories around Chushul and Rezang La area.

-----------------------
It feels so close to a surrender. Are we surrendering things in table, what gained in the field?

george · Post by **george** » 11 Nov 2020 20:47

^^ Unless PLAAF is planning to airdrop their para troops directly onto Himalayan peaks, I think not.

RajaRudra · Post by **RajaRudra** » 11 Nov 2020 20:53

What i meant is, the current Status quo is good for India, that too got after insurmountable pain and effort.
There is no use to china having F2 to F8. Then why to lose such a gain for this finger area?

Even that Finger area, we will just be doing patrol.

For some reason we need to make a negotiated settlement, even then, China should be made pay the price.

george · Post by **george** » 11 Nov 2020 20:58

Sir, all I am saying is that we have displayed to the Chinese what our response will be and that there is not way they can take these peaks quicker that us. We dont need to sit there all year round to prove that point.

Picklu · Post by **Picklu** » 12 Nov 2020 00:04

Last time they attacked on Nov 20. I hope we are taking enough precautions on the possibility of this being a feint before the attack.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 12 Nov 2020 00:30

^^^My thoughts exactly. Why should India be eager to disengage and demobilise now? CDS Rawat said recently that China is facing the unintended consequences of winter mobilisation. We should keep them pinned down for a few more months until it breaks their will.

RajaRudra · Post by **RajaRudra** » 12 Nov 2020 09:10

Seems F4 To F8 will be no patrol area..(we use to patrol till kargil happened)

Despang plains is not part of the current understanding.

Why should we agree to this. The current status quo at least put us in heights with a view towards moldo garison. There is no talk about china with drawingvfrom Black Top or Yellow Bump.

mihir.mehta · Post by **mihir.mehta** » 12 Nov 2020 10:09

I think they were always there on BlackTop & Yellow Bump. Black Top in any case is just 500 mtrs approx from their base and they don't need to be physically present there - some good surveillance equipment should do the job for them.

Somebody said

There is no use to china having F2 to F8. Then why to lose such a gain for this finger area?

You're forgetting that the road to Gogra & Hotsprings passes through the western tip of Pangong (Lukung) and we need enough depth to protect that area. Some might argue that we can see their activities from the southern bank of Pangong and that negates any advantage they have but still given their economic and logistics advantage - its best to keep that at a distance.

Us having heights is a strategic advantage but them having proximity (that too by staying inside our territory ) too is an advantage which must not be allowed.

From today's IndianExpress

PLA ready to return to Finger 8, wants temporary no-patrolling zone; seeks status quo ante on south bank, withdrawal of tanks, artillery to depth areas

What concerns me is this "temporary no-patrolling zone" - very high chances of becoming permanent. Which is fine if it becomes permanent for both. Otherwise we know about our public memory and then we effectively loose the area.

nits · Post by **nits** » 12 Nov 2020 10:26

This times with change in gaurd at US so that there is no say / pressure from them in this regard

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 12 Nov 2020 10:58

Cyrano wrote:My point is that India has been degrading Pak military capability in many ways for years now. However, their strategy of using low cost expendable jihadis doesn't seem to get impacted significantly, as borne out by continued raising, training, funding and support of jihadis and their uninterrupted infiltration into India to carry out attacks.

Ever since India has shut the door on talks asking Pak to clean up its terror infrastructure, and has mostly succeeded in making Pak an international pariah with FAFT and other levers, they have realised that any political / diplomatic options to get even with us have dwindled, and have therefore fallen back on the jihadi option as the only "affordable" main stay of their India policy.

Hereon, our current policies wrt Pak will only generate diminishing returns. Of course those policies must continue but some more sticks need to be wielded to break the back of Pak military's back and its stranglehold on the country once and for all. And we must not wait for Pulwama 2.0 or some other terror attack to do that.

If GoI believes it has the snakehead under its boot, it must be crushed now.

I see the same situation differently. Pakistan has degraded itself and has diminishing returns from its state sponsored terror.
There is a steady reduction in the number of infiltration attempts, but a rise in the number of terrorists killed relative to our security forces.
Every dead terrorist is yielding reduced returns and this is being reflected in a reduction in the no of Jihadis willing to try their luck.
At the same time, there is a reduction in local incidents of stone throwing / civil unrest etc (which is what Pak was supposed to trigger with their policies. The people in the valley - despite 370 being abrogated, seem to understand that their previous strategy is also yielding diminishing returns.
Any Pak action is also resulting in increasing international condemnation/ FATF pressure etc. So, higher risk and lower gain.
What is also significant is that during the standoff with China, Pak did not escalate on the LOC, because the army senses that nothing good will come of it. Any Chinese withdrawal now will only deepen the view in Rawalpindi, that China cannot be relied upon.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 12 Nov 2020 16:16

Deans ji,
Thats the optimistic way of looking at it, and comes with a price - the long tail of decreasing jihadi activity trend lasting several months and years means more lives lost, and jehadi networks kept alive for indoctrination and misleading of Kashmiri population for some forseeable future.

Should the govt change or some other event happens, this weakened but kept alive elements will rear their head again and reinforce very quickly.

The main question is "when is it ENOUGH for India to take decisive action to not just control but ELIMINATE these terrorist outfits and the structure that supports it ?"

For those who say "years and years" of preparation is needed, I'd say we are overestimating the Paki will to fight and underestimating India's ability to win decisively. Just saying that India will strike with missiles made them shiver and release Abhinandan. India should call the bluff NOW.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 12 Nov 2020 16:42

There is no decisive war to be fought in the Indian context unless we are prepared to deal with their nuclear weapons. To do that we need much greater financial outlay towards defence and civil war prep, far more than a country of our current economic heft can provide. Its the truth. Its also partly why even the US treated Pakistan with kid gloves. Invading Pakistan with legal war/ HR shackles would make the Iraq invasion look like child's play.

To manage their terrorism we have to take other measures or occasionally wage limited punitive conflict. But a nation of Paks side, as radicalized as it is, has a huge number of potential terrorists and light infantry tactics for suicide attacks are easy to teach.

nam · Post by **nam** » 12 Nov 2020 18:30

You cannot solve a problem of nation with 200M people! It is pointless invading Pakistan. You 10,000 LeT people, they will recruit 10K more.

There is no shortage of jobless people in Pak.

The only solution is hold our line, respond with punitive action on LoC or anywhere, when there are attacks, drive them diplomatically in to the corner and make them go bankrupt in an arms race.

Degrade their crown jewel capability and force the to invest more to maintain the "deterrent". A little skirmish once a while to keep them in constant panic mode.

RajaRudra · Post by **RajaRudra** » 12 Nov 2020 20:06

nam wrote:
Degrade their crown jewel capability and force the to invest more to maintain the "deterrent". A little skirmish once a while to keep them in constant panic mode.

We cannot degrade them beyond a point. There are powers that can/will make sure the entity called PA will not get degraded beyond a level. Not just the Cheeni, even other countries will lend its hand for PA to survive.

As you told, occasional skirmishes can keep them under panic mode. But that should involve some real cost also, like we should capture a bit of area just to keep them under the leash.

We should bid our time and wait for some opportunity. Who knows, there may come a time in which all the powers that keeping the entity (PA) float may be busy with something else and we should use that window of opportunity to dismantle the entity fully.

With US busy in their internal matters, and chinee struck in the winter, may be now is the window for at least a small skirmish(and get some land parcels to better guard the LOC) and test the real mantle of the entity. In a way, that is what China is trying to do to us.

RajaRudra · Post by **RajaRudra** » 12 Nov 2020 20:49

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... BvK7f1Gkf3

LAC: India, China to dismantle new structures built after April-May timeframe under disengagement plans.

In the third and last step, the two sides were to withdraw from their respective positions from the frontline along the southern bank of Pangong lake area which includes the heights and territories around Chushul and Rezang La area.
------------
It is still source based news.
If Both sides need to withdraw from the heights. Will that include Cheeni vacating from Black Top and Yellow Bump? May be, we should negotiate slowly and make the china give up more..

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 12 Nov 2020 21:37

Although I'm not happy with any move on our part to vacate the heights around Chushul, our stated position from the outset was a return to the status quo, which means we will have to give that up - I assume in return for the PLA vacating fingers 4-8, and areas in Depsang and Gogra where they intruded. Given our infra build up, if they haven't succeeded in salami slicing this time, they are less likely to do so in future. While it is not the best outcome from my point of view, a return to status quo, still represents a considerable loss of face for the PLA (and reality check for Pak).

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 12 Nov 2020 21:48

Cyrano wrote:Deans ji,
Thats the optimistic way of looking at it, and comes with a price - the long tail of decreasing jihadi activity trend lasting several months and years means more lives lost, and jehadi networks kept alive for indoctrination and misleading of Kashmiri population for some forseeable future.

Should the govt change or some other event happens, this weakened but kept alive elements will rear their head again and reinforce very quickly.
The main question is "when is it ENOUGH for India to take decisive action to not just control but ELIMINATE these terrorist outfits and the structure that supports it ?"
For those who say "years and years" of preparation is needed, I'd say we are overestimating the Paki will to fight and underestimating India's ability to win decisively. Just saying that India will strike with missiles made them shiver and release Abhinandan. India should call the bluff NOW.

You make an interesting point about the long tail of Jihadi activity and I agree with it. We are going to have to live with Jihadi activity in Kashmir for some time. My contention however is that we will tolerate a certain level of violence (i.e no impact on economic development or cost of maintaining law and order). Even to maintain that level of violence, Pak will pay an increasingly higher price and at some point they will find it is not worth it - the jihadis are already beginning to think so. There may be millions of unemployed brainwashed madrasa youth (numbers increasing), but only a few hundred (numbers decreasing) are motivated enough to cross the LOC, because even they understand that their life expectancy is measured in minutes once they approach the LOC fence. In a similar manner, the population of POK are increasingly beginning to realise that they aren't exactly living in paradise compared to Indian Kashmir (as do the people on our side, hence crossing over to POK has also reduced). It is not us who needs to fight a conventional war, but Pak who might be pushed into it, because their strategy is not working, while ours is.

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 12 Nov 2020 22:33

Apologies in advance for silly question.
Are there any locations in Sikkim, Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh where Chinese land forces can pose serious threat to Indian positions? I understand that the terrain is extremely difficult even in best of times and a land assault will be a long and bloody affair for invading PLA.

aditp · Post by **aditp** » 12 Nov 2020 22:45

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/china-proposes-pullback-at-pangong-india-considers-offer-7048438/

This article says that tings are still at the proposal stage. Proposal mooted by the Chinese Maj Gen in one to one talks with the IA XIV Corps Commander. We are still to consider the proposal and respond to the offer!

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 12 Nov 2020 23:57

Deans,
This is exactly the thinking that worries me. Which able and self respecting country will be willing to let citizens die like this and dissent to fester? As an emerging world power, it would look downright silly on our resume that a bankrupt neighbour is allowed to needle us with this degree of impunity. Like a lion with an open wound pecked by crows. The wound will never heal and risks bringing the lion down at some point of time.

We have pushed the envelop of conventional retaliation by doing surgical strikes and Balakot. My view is that that envelop can be pushed a lot lot further with missile strikes on Pindi and Abbotabad. That would make the proxy war instantly unaffordable for Pak Army.

For many years, worthies on this forum posited that Pak is nuke-nood. The best they can muster is pav-kilo dirty bombs. But given our subtle doctrine evolutions in recent times, they will not dare go there. They WILL NOT escalate unconventionally since that would lead to obliteration. They WILL NOT go into to conventional war because the Pak Generals know their Army is a hollow shell in terms of war fighting capability and has ZERO will to fight. Those fat Generals just want to retire with moolah embezzled from Pak population and go join their children in UK/US and run pizza chains.

Once Pak Gernals are rattled and the Army exposed for what it is, Baloch freedom fighters, G-B dissenters and NWFP rebels will do the rest. This theory that "if we retaliate disproportionately, rabid hordes and suicidal battalions from Pak will attack India which we cannot deal with, therefore we should wince and bear this endless constant low intensity proxy war" is, IMVHO, just hogwash.

RaviB · Post by **RaviB** » 13 Nov 2020 00:57

jamwal wrote:Apologies in advance for silly question.
Are there any locations in Sikkim, Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh where Chinese land forces can pose serious threat to Indian positions? I understand that the terrain is extremely difficult even in best of times and a land assault will be a long and bloody affair for invading PLA.

I'm no expert but on the Chinese side, I've often heard Medog county (part of Nyingchi prefecture) in Tibet spoken of as a dagger pointed at India. The county was only connected by road in 1970s and since 2010 has a road that's open year round and supports military vehicles. It's the area opposite Tuting and Bishing in Arunachal Pradesh. I don't know if this is a credible threat though.

nam · Post by **nam** » 13 Nov 2020 01:56

Response like balakot will probably happen once in a decade, even if it involves missiles.

On the other hand, fighting on LoC happens every day. Our opportunity to increase the cost happens every day.

Unfortunately for us, we are still carrying out 20th century battle on loc with artillery and mortar rounds which doesn't hit anything worthwhile.

Instead of firing missiles at pjndi and isloo target PA artillery and positions with precision ammo on loc, everyday.

nam · Post by **nam** » 13 Nov 2020 01:57

Azeri Armenia war has shown the degrading effect of tactical pgm, when airpower is not involved.

LOC is exactly the same situation.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 13 Nov 2020 02:06

aditp wrote:https://indianexpress.com/article/india/china-proposes-pullback-at-pangong-india-considers-offer-7048438/

This article says that tings are still at the proposal stage. Proposal mooted by the Chinese Maj Gen in one to one talks with the IA XIV Corps Commander. We are still to consider the proposal and respond to the offer!

Was it perhaps the results of quiet covert diplomacy with Beijing at the highest levels?