India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

[Aditya_V]

I asked the same question Vishnu SOm before around 3 months back posted in the early pages, what is worrying is that river bed goes straight to the Hasimara Airbase.

[shyamd]

There are more articles released in the press in the last few days about the PLA activities. PLA is only reinforcing their positions and building capacity in the Depsang area. If anything this strengthens their negotiating position. GOI will respond appropriately.

More being released in press today.

Spotlight on Ladakh, China secretly made moves in central, Sikkim and eastern sectors

While Hindustan Times has already reported the PLA’s force accretion in East Ladakh, something that reduces the chances of the status quo ante being restored at friction points, Indian military commanders are concerned about the build-up across the LAC, from Kaurik Pass in Himachal Pradesh to Fish Tail I and II in Arunachal Pradesh.

China has surreptitiously undertaken a large military infrastructure upgrade in the central, Sikkim and eastern sectors with simultaneous strengthening of surface-to-air missile sites, an increase in unmanned aerial vehicle numbers, and an expansion of airbases in Tibet while the world’s attention has been focused on Beijing’s hostile moves on the line of actual control (LAC) in Eastern Ladakh and its tense stand-off with India, according to people familiar with the matter.

Military commanders and national security planners who spoke on condition of anonymity said that over the past month they noticed the PLA (People’s Liberation Army) engage in road construction at Churup village right across Kaurik pass in the central sector and that it has placed new container housing modules around Tunjum La, north of the contested Barahoti plains in Uttarakhand, just 4km from the 565km LAC in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.


Also Read: China is biggest stumbling block in India’s UNSC permanent membership

Shiquanhe, a garrison depot 82km from Demchok LAC with Gar Gunsa airport, has become a hub for Beijing’s relocation of troops and heavy equipment. The position of Shiquanhe is such that it can serve as the main logistics supply depot from Demchok to Barahoti plains, Indian military planners said.

The situation in the eastern sector is no different, with an electronic warfare unit being deployed at Nyanglu, 60km from the Arunachal Pradesh border, in an old 1962 war PLA camp. This unit is a strategic support force with four counterspace jammers, possibly oriented towards Indian GSAT communication and commercial satellites, the military planners said.

India has also noticed redeployment of troops at Yebi with heightened PLA surveillance at Bum La. The PLA’s intelligence and surveillance activity has picked up all along the 3,488km LAC with specific focus being noticed across Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh and the Galwan sector in East Ladakh, the military planners added. Evidence of this heightened surveillance comes in the form of the construction of communication towers at Changmu, 27km from the LAC and north of Sebu La in Sikkim.

The India (Sikkim)-Bhutan-China trijunction saw the 73-day Doklam stand-off in 2017.

The Chinese have also speeded up the strengthening of depth areas with new missile transporter erector launchers seen at the surface-to-air missile site in the Kashgar airbase, 475km from the western sector LAC, Indian military commanders said. The Kashgar and Hotan bases are patrolling the skies in Aksai Chin with both the military bases showing the presence of heavy transport lift planes. There have been fresh troop and equipment dugouts under camouflage nets reported from Kangxiwar, 112km from the LAC across Karakoram Pass.

The number of military UAVs has increased at the Hoping airbase in Shigatse, opposite the Sikkim sector, with military logistics capacity being increased at the Lhasa airbase. The massive road-communications-surveillance upgrade all along LAC indicates that the PLA could open other fronts on the LAC if the worst-case scenario materialises in East Ladakh. In the wake of this, India’s national security planners are closely monitoring the movement of the military dialogue between the two armies while keeping troops on high alert even in the central and eastern sectors.

[nam]

So today's attack on Jammu must have been in response to our strikes on 13th..

So PM just tweeted about yesterday's attack, which was neutralized.

As I expected, there is more to yesterday's attack. We might have stopped a major attack. Pak was using Hafiz's sentencing as a cover and Pak terror attacks happens during Nov-Dec, as snow would curtail any IA ops on LoC.

[Aditya_V]

So today's attack on Jammu must have been in response to our strikes on 13th..

So PM just tweeted about yesterday's attack, which was neutralized.

As I expected, there is more to yesterday's attack. We might have stopped a major attack. Pak was using Hafiz's sentencing as a cover and Pak terror attacks happens during Nov-Dec, as snow would curtail any IA ops on LoC.

Not to nitpick but he will be given 5star hotel stay with protection - no one believes them. In the past it was a fig leaf used to Support Pakis.

[nam]

What interests me that PA seems to be ready to escalate. What if the attack had succeeded?

This attack was not using a local guy. It was out and out infiltration of Pakistani in to J&K through IB. Not even LoC. I also believe there would have been more guys involved and this lot was carrying weapons for another group.

It is as if Pak didn't want to hide the origin. I think, there is another attack coming. We may not get away so easily next time..

[James]

^^ This could be a combination of multiple factors at play (i) trying to use the US transition period b/w Trump and Biden to carry out an attack without too much of a blowback from US (ii) trying to test what would be Biden's reaction / redlines (iii) signalling to jihadis that sentencing of Hafiz Saeed's is only to show in the Action Taken Report to FATF, but PA is actually committed to the jihadi cause (iv) distraction of common Abdul in Terroristan from multiple issues that they are facing, and pre-empting Opposition uniting the people against the Fauj (v) helping the Chinis by trying to get India to shift focus from LAC to LOC

[nam]

The timing is far too perfect for a joint Pak-Chini quick, low scope attack. There are lot of variables helping them

Winter on LoC & LAC limits any ground response from our side. Our response will be heavily air power driven.

Chini can carry out Azeri style loitering drone attacks on LAC positions, with our movements & artillery degraded due to snow. If you want to carry out tactical drone attacks, winter is the time. Our response will have to be airpower. It doesn't snow in Tibet and winter air allows higher loadout for PLAAF. Tactical attacks allows PLA to keep things tactical.

Pak carry out terror attack, requiring us to respond by airpower again.No large scale ground assualt is possible on LC and PA will be majorly deployed on IB, instead of LC. PLA kicks off a campaign as soon as we respond to Pak..

IAF will be fighting on two fronts with powerful airforces.

US government is fully distracted at this moment.

[RKumar]

IAF will be fighting on two fronts with powerful airforces.

US government is fully distracted at this moment.

PAF is a

[RajaRudra]

The timing is far too perfect for a joint Pak-Chini quick, low scope attack. There are lot of variables helping them

Winter on LoC & LAC limits any ground response from our side. Our response will be heavily air power driven.

Chini can carry out Azeri style loitering drone attacks on LAC positions, with our movements & artillery degraded due to snow. If you want to carry out tactical drone attacks, winter is the time. Our response will have to be airpower. It doesn't snow in Tibet and winter air allows higher loadout for PLAAF. Tactical attacks allows PLA to keep things tactical.

Pak carry out terror attack, requiring us to respond by airpower again.No large scale ground assualt is possible on LC and PA will be majorly deployed on IB, instead of LC. PLA kicks off a campaign as soon as we respond to Pak..

IAF will be fighting on two fronts with powerful airforces.

US government is fully distracted at this moment.

Yes, but what is the guarantee that we will respond only with Air Power. Why not missiles? What if we target lahore military locations with short ranged missiles. LOC may be locked in winter, we may open another front as a punishment in some other sector. Or even a raid on Karachi.

I accept, Pakis are tactically brilliant and strategically fool. So may be, you are correct. Time to test our toys on real time scenarios and fields then.

[nam]

Irrespective of our response, we have a history of getting surprised. Our adversaries have constantly attacked us, through the gaps in our defense. 62, 65, Kargil, LAC you name it.

The current time is far too convenient for Pak-Chini to mount a limited attack to show our place. We got to remember, both our adversaries are experts at hiding human causalities and material losses. They can mount an adventure, as long as their losses cannot be easily proved..

[nam]

What would the security situation, if yesterday's attack had succeeded in mass causalities? We would have been on the verge of 2 front war..

[M_Joshi]

It's my hunch that the recent Mumbai Electrical grid blackout was a cyber attack from Chin. Obviously there will be no official word on this but it's a conspiracy theory I'm inclined to believe in.

No it was really a cable break in the Khandala Ghat. Please don't spread your conspiracy theories when no conspiracy exists.

If true, then 'Sabotage' is not the correct word, 'Cyber attack' would be more appropriate..

October 12 blackout was a sabotage

Last month’s power outage in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) was possibly the result of a sophisticated sabotage attempt involving foreign entities, a probe carried out by the state police’s cyber cell has revealed.

The month-long probe detected presence of multiple “suspicious log – ins” into the servers connected with power supply and transmission utilities by accounts operating from Singapore and a few other south Asian countries. The state police is now coordinating with national agencies to determine if these “intrusions, interferences” were part of a coordinated effort aimed at crippling the country’s financial capital.

A source who is privy to the probe, said hackers have been trying to target the country’s power utilities since February. In June, a swarm of 40,000-plus hacking attacks by non-state groups purportedly operating from China had used a type of malware to access and then encrypt sensitive data of targeted private and public entities. A power supply provider in Jammu and Kashmir had also come under the hackers’ attack.

[shyamd]

It comes at an interesting time as RAW/IB private sector cyber offensive arm are under US department of Justice scrutiny (for offering their services to private players abroad)

[Vidur]

Irrespective of our response, we have a history of getting surprised. Our adversaries have constantly attacked us, through the gaps in our defense. 62, 65, Kargil, LAC you name it.

The current time is far too convenient for Pak-Chini to mount a limited attack to show our place. We got to remember, both our adversaries are experts at hiding human causalities and material losses. They can mount an adventure, as long as their losses cannot be easily proved..

It is impossible to be on defence and expect that all attacks will be stopped. Some will get through. We have to change our mindset and

1. Go offensive and initiate attacks on enemy
2. Take every attack on us, including those that have failed as acts of war

It would be instructive to see how many Cols India has lost since 2000. How many Pakistani Cols have died ?

How many Lt Cols have we lost ? How many Pakistani Lt Cols have died. Majors, Capts, Lts ?

Our focus on stopping infiltration and 'managing' the situation has destroyed 1000s of families while the enemy has faced no consequences. Terrorist casualties are no losses for Pak.

Our policy still remains myopic and we continue to fight on our territory

[Vidur]

I would also strongly caution against taking OSINT handles seriously.

[bharathp]

https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/ ... est-666399

Pakistan High Commission's official was on Saturday summoned by the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) over Nagrota encounter, in which four terrorists were neutralised. According to sources, India conveyed its strong concern to Pakistan on the terror attack, allegedly planned by Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) in Jammu and Kashmir. A strong protest was lodged demanding Pakistan to stop supporting terrorists and terror groups operating from their territory while dismantling the terrorism infrastructure.

TSP officially identified as master mind behind the attempt. there may be more than meets the eye. this maybe an:
1) an attempt to add new stuff to TSPs list of wrong doing as they arrest hsyeed
2) this maybe a notification for armed forces to go full on since TSP is now identified as the source

need to check for next 1 month after winter closes the LAC activities.

[Cain Marko]

The timing is far too perfect for a joint Pak-Chini quick, low scope attack. There are lot of variables helping them

Winter on LoC & LAC limits any ground response from our side. Our response will be heavily air power driven.

Chini can carry out Azeri style loitering drone attacks on LAC positions, with our movements & artillery degraded due to snow. If you want to carry out tactical drone attacks, winter is the time. Our response will have to be airpower. It doesn't snow in Tibet and winter air allows higher loadout for PLAAF. Tactical attacks allows PLA to keep things tactical.

Pak carry out terror attack, requiring us to respond by airpower again.No large scale ground assualt is possible on LC and PA will be majorly deployed on IB, instead of LC. PLA kicks off a campaign as soon as we respond to Pak..

IAF will be fighting on two fronts with powerful airforces.

US government is fully distracted at this moment.

Yes, but what is the guarantee that we will respond only with Air Power. Why not missiles? What if we target lahore military locations with short ranged missiles. LOC may be locked in winter, we may open another front as a punishment in some other sector. Or even a raid on Karachi.

I accept, Pakis are tactically brilliant and strategically fool. So may be, you are correct. Time to test our toys on real time scenarios and fields then.

Between balakot style air attacks and SRBMs there is a host of options on the escalation ladder. From Artillery to Bmos/CMs. India has options.

[Kashi]

TSP officially identified as master mind behind the attempt. there may be more than meets the eye. this maybe an:
1) an attempt to add new stuff to TSPs list of wrong doing as they arrest hsyeed
2) this maybe a notification for armed forces to go full on since TSP is now identified as the source

need to check for next 1 month after winter closes the LAC activities.

Just a hunch that these summons were more about warning TSP on what likely awaits them should such follies continue.

[Cyrano]

1. Go offensive and initiate attacks on enemy
2. Take every attack on us, including those that have failed as acts of war

It would be instructive to see how many Cols India has lost since 2000. How many Pakistani Cols have died ?

How many Lt Cols have we lost ? How many Pakistani Lt Cols have died. Majors, Capts, Lts ?

Our focus on stopping infiltration and 'managing' the situation has destroyed 1000s of families while the enemy has faced no consequences. Terrorist casualties are no losses for Pak.

Our policy still remains myopic and we continue to fight on our territory

Agree 100%

[S_Madhukar]

Agree 100 % with Vidur. I feel at times some of our top mil bosses probably don’t want too much of an escalation either possibly because of gaps in our own armoury and their own pensions ...it’s an inertia that will take a generation to change

[Cyrano]

This "Indian Military is primarily a defensive force" mindset needs to go from all levels of MoD, MEA and Armed Forces. AD has said some important things on the banks of Ganga recently.

[nam]

It is impossible to be on defence and expect that all attacks will be stopped. Some will get through. We have to change our mindset and

1. Go offensive and initiate attacks on enemy
2. Take every attack on us, including those that have failed as acts of war

It would be instructive to see how many Cols India has lost since 2000. How many Pakistani Cols have died ?

How many Lt Cols have we lost ? How many Pakistani Lt Cols have died. Majors, Capts, Lts ?

Our focus on stopping infiltration and 'managing' the situation has destroyed 1000s of families while the enemy has faced no consequences. Terrorist casualties are no losses for Pak.

Our policy still remains myopic and we continue to fight on our territory

There is no arguments here. We cannot defend every inch 24/7. Throwing men at the problems. have been our bane.

There is hardly a need to invade Pak to punish them. We got to employ technology to materially degrade Pak on LoC. We can carry out a sustained precision strikes on Pak artillery, mortar positions, with video feeds being released. Every attack be on LC or hinterland should be responded with a round of attrition on Pak materials.

They have lot of men to throw at us, but loosing 155MM artillery guns in numbers will bite hard. We need to go after their artillery guns, mortar, large caliber guns, transports with precision strikes.

I will feel at peace, the day IA release PGM/loitering drones strikes on Pak artillery guns, likes the ones we got from Azeris.
We are still fighting 20th century warfare on LC, with lobbing artillery rounds at static positions.

[nam]

We have to materially punish Pak, before it drags us in a 2 front war in the winter season. We are probably mass casualty one terror attack away from it..

[Nihat]

Reading the recent TOI article on how the jaish terrorists were planning the attack in Kashmir makes one realize just how readily disposable these random jihad fanboys are. Their life means nothing to their handlers.

Like a few people have posted above, we need to go after the paki infrastructure, army personnel and equipment. Use every CFV as an opportunity to display our conventional advantage by targeting key bridges, army installations. We also seem to have a very strong intelligence network inside pok where we get tipped off on infiltration attempts.

I hope the higher ups decide to use rocket artillery and cruise missiles against these targets.

[Philip]

The Indian "elephant" has for too long played the part of the meek mouse. As Mao famously said, "a loud fart is better than along speech".Every time I hear the phrase from our establishment ,used for decades about giving the Pakis,PRC a "befitting reply",I feel the nausea in the belly and an overwhelming desire to puke! It was said ad nauseum in the days of the 26/11 Bombay massacres ,but it took a change in govt. ,the surgical cross-border strikes and Balakot for India to finally walk the talk. There is therefore no longer any need to spar with words with Pak.Every terrroist incident must be replied with military force targeting Paki military installations even deep behind the border,at the various mil. command centres and HQs. Only when Paki military swine die in large numbers from Indian counter-terrorism mil. ops, that they start climbing down. We have to inflict great pain upon the Paki armed forces and establishment in increasing measure to finally cow them down, at least temporarily. As NIhat in the above post has said,we need to strike deeper into the Paki heartland, with a view as to sabotaging their mil. infrastructure to our advantage if the balloon gores up.

[darshhan]

Irrespective of our response, we have a history of getting surprised. Our adversaries have constantly attacked us, through the gaps in our defense. 62, 65, Kargil, LAC you name it.

The current time is far too convenient for Pak-Chini to mount a limited attack to show our place. We got to remember, both our adversaries are experts at hiding human causalities and material losses. They can mount an adventure, as long as their losses cannot be easily proved..

It is impossible to be on defence and expect that all attacks will be stopped. Some will get through. We have to change our mindset and

1. Go offensive and initiate attacks on enemy
2. Take every attack on us, including those that have failed as acts of war

It would be instructive to see how many Cols India has lost since 2000. How many Pakistani Cols have died ?

How many Lt Cols have we lost ? How many Pakistani Lt Cols have died. Majors, Capts, Lts ?

Our focus on stopping infiltration and 'managing' the situation has destroyed 1000s of families while the enemy has faced no consequences. Terrorist casualties are no losses for Pak.

Our policy still remains myopic and we continue to fight on our territory

As per various news reports, Namo has given free hand to Army to deal with Pakis on LOC. So if Army is not escalating by going into enemy territort, that can mean only one of the following scenarios.

1. PM has actually not given any free hand to troops contrary to reports appearing in media. All such reports are marketing/PR only.

2. Army commanders are either unwilling or unprepared to escalate by capturing enemy territory or both

[sudeepj]

Irrespective of our response, we have a history of getting surprised. Our adversaries have constantly attacked us, through the gaps in our defense. 62, 65, Kargil, LAC you name it.

The current time is far too convenient for Pak-Chini to mount a limited attack to show our place. We got to remember, both our adversaries are experts at hiding human causalities and material losses. They can mount an adventure, as long as their losses cannot be easily proved..

It is impossible to be on defence and expect that all attacks will be stopped. Some will get through. We have to change our mindset and

1. Go offensive and initiate attacks on enemy
2. Take every attack on us, including those that have failed as acts of war

It would be instructive to see how many Cols India has lost since 2000. How many Pakistani Cols have died ?
How many Lt Cols have we lost ? How many Pakistani Lt Cols have died. Majors, Capts, Lts ?

The issue is not a matter of how many Cols and Lt Cols have been killed on our side or theirs. We need to get out of this attrition based mindset. Kashmiri/Islamist terrorism is only one vector of a multi pronged attack launched from Pakistan on India. Another way to look at it is an attack by 'Pakistaniyat' (as defined by, say, their 8th std Pakistan studies textbook) on 'Bhartiy-ta'. In my subjective opinion, even if we had killed 2 or 3 times the number of our men killed, we would still be losing this war. As a more extreme example, US killed 60 times the number of Vietnamese, but still lost that war.

This war is not limited to India but extends across every state in the subcontinent, even within Pakistan itself.

Our focus on stopping infiltration and 'managing' the situation has destroyed 1000s of families while the enemy has faced no consequences. Terrorist casualties are no losses for Pak.

Our policy still remains myopic and we continue to fight on our territory

The enemy society has faced some consequences.. They just havent been enough to deter him. We must make him pay a political, ideological and economic cost within Pakistan. For instance, I dont think international opprobrium is enough of a cost to deter him. I dont think no-trade with India, or no spillover of economic opportunities from India is cost enough. I dont think one politician losing elections because he lost to India is cost enough.

One difficulty is that Pakistan is a such an in-coherent state when we look at it form a modern politico-institutional lens. Its a bag of rats killing each other. On the other hand, if you apply the Mughal court lens, things start to make sense. The democratization of violence there means, every sipahasalar or maulvi has the resource to launch private attacks on India. One way to anticipate attacks may be to form a 'shadow-court' to model the intrigues in Pakistan in real time and anticipate the actions of the privateers.

I wont spell it out here, but ultimately, the medium term solution is obvious to all of us. It must be to degrade Pakistani capability to react/respond to own punitive missions. That will make it far easier to administer the classical-conditioning that society needs to function as a peaceful neighbor.

[Cyrano]

Errr.... I think "Free Hand" means "Free to retaliate with all the means at Hand". It is not a default carte blanche to go up the escalation ladder based on an event occurring at one place. That requires more means, needs more levels to decide and generates more consequences + or -ve. And any sensible Army under the Executive will not go escalating in Auto Mode. If an Executive go ahead is given and IA fails to achieve objectives, then we can blame IA. I don't think you'll find many instances of that in independent India's history. Pak Army, with the Executive under it, is unable/unwilling to go up the escalation ladder when IA retaliates massively on the border.

However, that's only partial success for India and therefore equates to partial success for the PA as well, because they can go cold for a while and do it again knowing that India will retaliate but not escalate. Being predictable generates comfort zones for the other side and loops back to self, which in kind words can be qualified as "staying in control" and unkind words as "stuck in a rut".

Thats what needs to be broken. And India's executive leadership must take the call.

[darshhan]

Errr.... I think "Free Hand" means "Free to retaliate with all the means at Hand". It is not a default carte blanche to go up the escalation ladder based on an event occurring at one place. That requires more means, needs more levels to decide and generates more consequences + or -ve. And any sensible Army under the Executive will not go escalating in Auto Mode. If an Executive go ahead is given and IA fails to achieve objectives, then we can blame IA. I don't think you'll find many instances of that in independent India's history. Pak Army, with the Executive under it, is unable/unwilling to go up the escalation ladder when IA retaliates massively on the border.

However, that's only partial success for India and therefore equates to partial success for the PA as well, because they can go cold for a while and do it again knowing that India will retaliate but not escalate. Being predictable generates comfort zones for the other side and loops back to self, which in kind words can be qualified as "staying in control" and unkind words as "stuck in a rut".

Thats what needs to be broken. And India's executive leadership must take the call.

True. That is why I said most of it is PR/marketing. The so called Free Hand comes with conditions which means it is not Free hand at all. Because most of the PR wrt enemy damage cannot be carried out by GoI mouthpieces probably because of lack of accurate Battlefield Damage Assesment(BDA) reports, OSINT handles are being used extensively. Which are anyways hard to verify.

[Manish_P]

...

1. PM has actually not given any free hand to troops contrary to reports appearing in media. All such reports are marketing/PR only.

2. Army commanders are either unwilling or unprepared to escalate by capturing enemy territory or both

Could also be PM/GOI/MOD has given a free hand to troops upto a certain level - No crossing over / No capturing territory / Usage of fire power only upto a certain caliber. As per the escalation ladder.. which itself is dynamic.. based on Geo-political situations.

[Vidur]

Solutions can only be found when we are honest with ourselves. Are we an honest people ?

Facts

A much smaller power has inflicted severe casualties to our military on our soil for over 30 years. Over 20 Cols have made the supreme sacrifice. Thats 20 SSPs/Under Secretaries. Families destroyed and already forgotten. No consequences to Pakistan Army.

Surgical Strikes and Balakot were both reactive. Balakot was responded to by a air attack by Pakistan. An act of war and we let it go unpunished. PAK won the media and perception war. Over 18 months later CFVs continue. Deterrence has failed.

Problem

We look at everything through a political lens. Opposition is rotten and side openly with the enemy. Most of the country can see that. That reduces pressure on govt to perform. Our strategy gets reduced to situation management and internal perception management. Our internal perception management is at its peak. This power should be focused on the enemy not internally.

There is significant defensiveness, career protection and risk aversion in military thinking especially in army. Politicians are risk averse by nature and don't have any military knowledge or expertise. So naturally they go for the path of least resistance in face of the advice they are given.

[Manish_P]

Solutions can only be found when we are honest with ourselves. Are we an honest people ?
Facts
A much smaller power has inflicted severe casualties to our military on our soil for over 30 years. Over 20 Cols have made the supreme sacrifice. Thats 20 SSPs/Under Secretaries. Families destroyed and already forgotten. No consequences to Pakistan Army.
...
Problem
We look at everything through a political lens. Opposition is rotten and side openly with the enemy.Most of the country can see that....
Politicians are risk averse by nature and don't have any military knowledge or expertise...

With due respect, Vidur Ji, most of us here at BRF (including yourself, i know for a fact) also know of the corruption and risk averse-ness in the IAS/MOD. We also hear from veterans/serving members on how the babus make use of their position of power to create roadblocks for both the procurement of equipment and due benefits to the members of the services.

As you say in the past 30 years, 20 Colonels made the supreme sacrifice, many many more at all levels have lost their lives or have been maimed. How many Under Secretaries and other hierarchies of incompetent, corrupt, officers of the bureaucracy have been fired in the same period? The politicians at least run the risk of being out of power every five years, and then being set upon by the vindictive opposition.

Forgive my rant, but over the last couple of days i am seeing lot of posts seeking to conveniently shift blame to the risk-averseness of the Military, without taking into account that the military takes the orders from the GOI and is at the mercy of the bureaucracy for procurement, due benefits et al.

[Karan M]

Vidur has himself pointed out these very issues, I dont think its fair to single him out for the actions of the wider establishment - this includes all stakeholders. Its like preaching to the choir, so to speak.

The issue is that as a society, we have become used to taking casualties in singles, doubles etc and only a big ticket Pulwama style attack outrages us which in turn puts pressure on the executive to retaliate. This is a national failing. Never forget the Indian voter did not punish the then Govt for 26/11.

The current executive has also inherited an empty treasury and after decades of dross, expecting us to be capable of full-spectrum conflict the kind BRF wants is to be optimistic, as there so many gaps yet to be filled, though we can undoubtedly take out Pak even today, and likely deter PRC (latter as we just demonstrated). However, there will be economic costs, and we don't have an answer yet to a full blown escalation i.e. the nuclear factor till a BMD/anti CM system is deployed. The executive is hence risk averse. Again, this is a function of resources. The majority of the Indian economy is still agrarian, subsistence farming, and poverty alleviation soak up a substantial chunk. Then there was the OROP trainwreck, budgetary wise. We are soaking up taxes from the registered tax payers/middle class but its still not enough. Try ordering any small item from abroad, tax rates can hit 42% (around 26% of that marked as social welfare).

Also I'd submit the human costs of Pakistan's hybrid war are far more than 20 Colonels. Add the losses in the terror attacks in India - train and city bombings plus 26/11, the Punjab insurgency, the loss of life in 1984 which followed in part, the loss of people at Kargil, the casualties at Siachen, the loss of lives during Op Parakram. All of these also accrue to Pakistan, beyond just the lives lost in J&K.

[Vidur]

Solutions can only be found when we are honest with ourselves. Are we an honest people ?
Facts
A much smaller power has inflicted severe casualties to our military on our soil for over 30 years. Over 20 Cols have made the supreme sacrifice. Thats 20 SSPs/Under Secretaries. Families destroyed and already forgotten. No consequences to Pakistan Army.
...
Problem
We look at everything through a political lens. Opposition is rotten and side openly with the enemy.Most of the country can see that....
Politicians are risk averse by nature and don't have any military knowledge or expertise...

With due respect, Vidur Ji, most of us here at BRF (including yourself, i know for a fact) also know of the corruption and risk averse-ness in the IAS/MOD. We also hear from veterans/serving members on how the babus make use of their position of power to create roadblocks for both the procurement of equipment and due benefits to the members of the services.

As you say in the past 30 years, 20 Colonels made the supreme sacrifice, many many more at all levels have lost their lives or have been maimed. How many Under Secretaries and other hierarchies of incompetent, corrupt, officers of the bureaucracy have been fired in the same period? The politicians at least run the risk of being out of power every five years, and then being set upon by the vindictive opposition.

Forgive my rant, but over the last couple of days i am seeing lot of posts seeking to conveniently shift blame to the risk-averseness of the Military, without taking into account that the military takes the orders from the GOI and is at the mercy of the bureaucracy for procurement, due benefits et al.

I am referring to tactical and operational decisions not to modernisation and procurement. With our current equipment and inventory we can handle a 2 front threat. Please take this from me on face value. This is Govt of India plan and a fact. Akshay can share the concpet of operations.

Having said that we are not talking about that but a very defensive outlook in border management and in implementing 'Moral Ascendancy'. I say this with a lot of responsibility and close knowledge. Equipment is NOT a bottleneck today.

Let me give you an example. IAF has told Govt that they can achieve air dominance over the Ladakh theatre. Army has been quite risk averse. So has MEA. MOD 'babus' as you call them have little role to play in shaping the operational and tactical discussion.

[Aditya_V]

Some more cross LOC shelling by Pakistan, we need to target thier LOC border infrastructure more, especially fuel depots , trucks and artillery pieces more.

We have to keep degrading, keep learning, have nessecary miltary advantage. The long term solution is break Pakistan, take the Neelum Valley, Poonch Bulge and Shakarkgarh bulge, Tharparkkar area of Sindh, get Baluchistan independent and directly trade through Baluchistan, Afganistan and CAR and get access to Wakan corridor by getting back GB, then arm Pasthuns till Lahore and Isloo go the ground.

It is clear Pakistan is not interested in peace and we need to work cut off thier international support other than China , arm ourselves adequately, ensure thier economic capability, transport , communication, electricity and education is kept to a minimum. This can be done in 15-20 years if we are committed and don't get Pak passed UPA types.

[Manish_P]

I am referring to tactical and operational decisions not to modernisation and procurement.

Ok

With our current equipment and inventory we can handle a 2 front threat. Please take this from me on face value. This is Govt of India plan and a fact. Akshay can share the concpet of operations.

Without going into details here, are you referring to defending our territory or intruding into, capturing and holding enemy held territory.

Having said that we are not talking about that but a very defensive outlook in border management and in implementing 'Moral Ascendancy'. I say this with a lot of responsibility and close knowledge. Equipment is NOT a bottleneck today.

I do not doubt your knowledge. I would like to ask when you say that equipment is not a bottleneck today, is it sufficient for defending the existing lines or enough for intense war fighting post intrusion and holding of enemy held territory.

Let me give you an example. IAF has told Govt that they can achieve air dominance over the Ladakh theatre. Army has been quite risk averse. So has MEA. MOD 'babus' as you call them have little role to play in shaping the operational and tactical discussion.

Ok. The difference between the services itself was not made clear earlier... or in my mistake, i missed it. IAF having air dominance at this moment in time is understandable due to multiple factors (geography being one). Purely hypothetically, what if the chinese rapidly station a sizeable number of squadrons in Pakistan (pretext of protecting CPEC) or the Turks loan the Pakis a few squadrons (ummah brothers), thereby diminishing the IAF numerical superiority. Will the IAF still stick to the same assertion of dominance? Or being the professional force they are, change their stance.

MOD 'babus' as you call them have little role to play in shaping the operational and tactical discussion.

It is an old cliche, but wars are not won by the military alone. The territory they win at the cost of their blood and guts must be defended by the polity and the administration, backing them, across the spectrum, over the years. It should not be depending on which political entity wins the election every 5 years. The bureaucrats may well have a little role to play in shaping the discussion, but they mostly go by the policy decisions taken the Executive and are risk-averse themselves in going against the wishes of their political masters. Are they not?

Would like to learn more from you on this, but will be OT in this thread. Will appreciate if you can share in the strategic thread.

[darshhan]

Some more cross LOC shelling by Pakistan, we need to target thier LOC border infrastructure more, especially fuel depots , trucks and artillery pieces more.

We have to keep degrading, keep learning, have nessecary miltary advantage. The long term solution is break Pakistan, take the Neelum Valley, Poonch Bulge and Shakarkgarh bulge, Tharparkkar area of Sindh, get Baluchistan independent and directly trade through Baluchistan, Afganistan and CAR and get access to Wakan corridor by getting back GB, then arm Pasthuns till Lahore and Isloo go the ground.

It is clear Pakistan is not interested in peace and we need to work cut off thier international support other than China , arm ourselves adequately, ensure thier economic capability, transport , communication, electricity and education is kept to a minimum. This can be done in 15-20 years if we are committed and don't get Pak passed UPA types.

Not acceptable. In 15 to 20 years there will be many Pakistan emerging in India itself. This is basically saying " we lack guts and hence we will leave this mess for our future generation to clear ". Plus keep on voting BJP type party indefinitely if you want to keep Pakistan in check.

1.5-2 years will be a better time frame to finish off pakistan.

[vijayk]

https://swarajyamag.com/world/china-is- ... it-smartly
What China Is Up To In The Eastern Sector Along The LAC And Why India Is Not Unduly Worried About It

India Not Unduly Worried

But India does not have any reason to be unduly worried. The Indian army has adequate number of battle-hardened troops and units specialising in high altitude warfare and special operations stationed across the border with CoT in Arunachal and Sikkim.

India’s deployment of troops and military hardware in Arunachal and Sikkim predates the recent moves by the PLA. China is, actually, playing catching up with India.

The PLA also suffers from many disadvantages when compared to the Indian army. PLA troops have no actual battlefield experience and the political control over PLA units is a severe handicap (read this).

However, the Indian army has not been complacent. “We are keeping a constant watch on what China is doing and have already taken adequate measures to preempt any mischief by the PLA. Our surveillance — electronic and other means — is very strong,” said a top officer at the army’s Eastern Command headquarters in Kolkata.

These measures include intelligent deployment of troops and military hardware, positioning surveillance equipment on strategic heights and strengthening defences along some vulnerable stretches of the border with CoT.

As for the PLAAF, all its bases in CoT are at very high altitudes and air operations from those bases suffer from what is called ‘load penalties’.

Due to reduced air density, PLAAF’s aircrafts, including its fighters, are able to carry much lesser loads and fuel, and hence their strike range is limited.

IAF fighters do not suffer from this huge handicap since all the IAF air bases are in the plains.

The PLAAF is also many years away from having an adequate fleet of tankers for midair refuelling. This can neutralise the PLAAF’s disadvantage arising out of operating from CoT, but only to a limited extent.

India, thus, is well prepared to foil China’s anticipated plans to wage a limited border war in the eastern sector.

[sudeepj]

Solutions can only be found when we are honest with ourselves. Are we an honest people ?

Facts

A much smaller power has inflicted severe casualties to our military on our soil for over 30 years. Over 20 Cols have made the supreme sacrifice. Thats 20 SSPs/Under Secretaries. Families destroyed and already forgotten. No consequences to Pakistan Army.

Would the present scenario be acceptable if we had killed 100 Pak Cols? While it may satisfy some bravado, what we are not seeing the war for 'Pakistaniyat' that is being waged deep inside India. I think Pak would be quite happy to lose a 100 cols, if they are still able to wage this war. Its incorrect to say that India has not imposed any costs on Pak.

Our Kargil response killed 600 of their men. We used air power on them without any fear. They plunged into a political crisis. Internal contradictions made them turn their guns on their ideological own. Their presidents suffered numerous assassination attempts. Today, they are in FATF and facing numerous sanctions. There is an opportunity cost. We kill their regular soldiery every day on the LOC like goats on eid. We penetrated deep inside Pakistan and did a precision strike that killed tens if not hundreds of terrorists. We provide political and diplomatic support to their dissidents and civil society groups.

But it has not had the desired salutary effect beyond a few months. This makes us think 'we lost'. We will continue to lose as long as we are thinking (only) in terms of: Proportional response, LOC fire assaults, Rush to RYK and slice Pak in two using strike corps, emotional aar-paar, devastating nuke counter strike that will erase Pakistan, COIN, two front war, let them stew in their own juices, ... These are all failed strategic concepts and we need to go back to the drawing board.

I think we need to figure out exactly what kind of action will have a salutary effect? What is their self-image, their world view of India and the world? What exactly is their concept of war that Pakistan is waging on us? What enables this war? Consequently, what will degrade it? Societies dont run on money and technology. They run on narratives and stories that 'we all believe in'. Even a family runs on a narrative that all members try to execute on. What is the Pak narrative that allows them to tick as such a fulminating pustule on Indias ribcage? What can break this narrative? They have lost the richer part of their country but their narrative is still intact! They have even used the internet to strengthen it! Consequently they havent 'lost' and are still in the fight, while we are at our wits end trying to figure out what to do.

We need doctrinal clarity will help us formulate a response that will have the desired effect for anything longer than a few months. Till then, keep building long range, standoff capability. The next war is hurtling towards us. It certainly wont be 1000 years long, 1000 days, 1000 hours.. Our goal should be more like 1000 minutes long. To my armchair marshal self, this appears doable provided we start with reasonable, clear goals and doctrinal clarity.

We look at everything through a political lens. ... Our internal perception management is at its peak. This power should be focused on the enemy not internally.

There is significant defensiveness, career protection and risk aversion in military thinking especially in army. Politicians are risk averse by nature and don't have any military knowledge or expertise. So naturally they go for the path of least resistance in face of the advice they are given.

The army of an industrial country is an instrument to inflict industrial scale human butchery till the enemy loses his will to fight. Because the enemy will react with all his might, its natural to hold ones horses till you have a clear doctrine, a clear exit strategy and a clear goal. We have none of those. Its incorrect to blame either generals or politicians or bureaucrats for being risk averse when these basic mistakes can cause a few hundred thousand dead, destroy significant parts of own mil capability and worse, lead to a defeat for the nation. (As a reminder, the US lost to VC and to the Taliban). If I was in their place, I would have made similar choices. If anyone is to blame, its the 'war studies' types. Either we have chaman ka bhainsa gas bags or frothing at the mouth muchhads.

What we need is clarity in mind, and skill in action.

[fanne]

In my very humble opinion, we are discussing here something bigger than china-pakistan war. This may not be the right thread (and you can see from discussion - strategic points are being countered by tactical answers), even though the context is right. Having said that what is the answer to some of Shri Vidur's questions? My attempt at it -
1. Nation and its boundary is a very long-term construct. Nation morale is however a very short time construct. A 1971 victory can change the psyche and wipe out some 100 years of Hindu/muslim construct. A 1962 can append the notion that Chinese 2 feet tall to 10 feet tall. Similarly, as simple as economic boom/IT boom since 1998 (and mirroring TSP collapse) can append 1 pakiban =10 Hindus. Territory gained or lost can remain in one’s hand for 100s/1000s of years. It would be fool hardy to start on a venture (war, localized conflict) on whim/frustration/desperation/vengeance/reasons of moral ascendency where there maybe even little risk of losing (real or perception). I like Sun TZU doctrine (of a very afraid nation that has lost over 99% of its conflicts) - Fight only when you can win (if you cannot out rightly win without fighting) or else bid your time (but works towards defeating your enemy). Where we have been failing is - avoiding the war (as we do not have the overwhelming superiority - like say what USA have over TSP) BUT then not working tirelessly towards defeating TSP.
The counter that western nation have gained a lot by actively seeking conflict is true, but they had two things that is different than ours -1)Sometime war was thrust upon them and there was no choice (war not cross border terrorism, like TSP mechanized division rolling towards Delhi - in that case there is no question of avoiding war, you fight with full might). 2)They fought where they had overwhelming superiority - Eyeraq, Vietnam, Korea. Where they were equal the war never went hot it remained cold, and both sides worked tirelessly to finish the other side by other means.
2. The conclusion is then, to destroy TSP (or any nation) you have to wage continuous, relentless, devious, all spectrum war. Of which military is an important but one aspect. Of course, we will lose people, money...but really (and a very bad statement, you may not like it)- some 10,000-total dead (due to tsp) over 30 years for a population of a billion people (and 50,000 - 1 lakh death everyday) is not big. We have lost much more in a single day throughout history (and high-ranking people) – whether Somnath was attacked, or Taimur or the Mughals. Auranjab apparently had a daily goal of kafirs killed. So lets stop crying over dying (doesn’t make it correct or anything).
3.We have to formulate within our country (overtly or covertly) a policy that only a dead TSP is a good TSP. Perhaps the other political parties may not agree (then keep it covert), we at least have some 10 years more (if not more) with the current leadership. Build a full spectrum institution dedicated to destroying TSP. Fortunately TSP is so rotten that you have to just work little hard to push it over the edge. Fight it diplomatically, economically, water, internal chaos, psy war, tech war, cricket…..and of course military
4. Diplomatic – We have perhaps won ME, lets win Europe, US, Rest of Asia, Europe, N/S America…everyone against the TSP. TSP has done the 90% of the work itself by exporting IT. We need to get info to journalist, newspapers, TVs, blogs, opinion makers, legislative representative (like right wing EU members) about TSP wrong doings (in their respective countries). Many NATO soldiers have been killed in Afg, I bet almost all of them can be traced back to TSP and we probably have intel to link 90% of them. Without giving away our sources or method, make it our business to give this info to the public of the other country. Imagine that the dead soldier is getting a heroic sendoff in his native city and same day the local newspaper carries news how this had a TSP hand. Repeat that for every incident (even pass ones) for each city and country. Make it so toxic that even if Biden and team wanted to help these guys, public opinion may not let them (one can have the whole city write letters to whoever, the president, senator, congress man opposing any move to help TSP). Oppose each and every move that benefits TSP (each and every) – giving AMARAMs to allowing football or Towels export license.
5. Rest of the other dimensions – I don’t have to tell, there are enough options. It just needs the willingness. My guess, a sustained effort will see a result way sooner than anyone expects.