Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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Cain Marko
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Cain Marko »

Using this forum to make political points is ridiculous. Criticizing Trump's handling of the crisis is fair enough but pretending that others might've done a far better job is a dubious claim at best. The only real comparison would be with Biden, but he wasn't president then, and we'll never truly know. However, from the political games they've played during this time, one can hardly be sure that a Biden admin might have done a far better job.
And no amount of support from noble peoples is going to put Humpty Dumpty together again.
tandav
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by tandav »

More interesting is how China has completely solved COVID using aggressive contact tracing technology and regular steam inhalation
saip
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by saip »

Right now, India has 440,000 active cases and daily death rate of around 500. In US, CA alone has over 500k active case and daily deaths in the USA have topped 2000. What explains these numbers? Bad statistics from India? Or bad management of the pandemic in the USA?
vera_k
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

Could be as simple as BCG vaccination in India providing some protection. Additionally, greater ultraviolet radiation and lack of conditioned spaces has possibly helped reduce the spread. Indian management of the pandemic is not great compared to the stupendous success seen in China, if Chinese stats are to be believed.
vijayk
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

tandav wrote:More interesting is how China has completely solved COVID using aggressive contact tracing technology and regular steam inhalation
Here no one recommends steam ... not even single doctor ...

Do you think this is just arrogance or no clue or conspiracy of silence?
sudarshan
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sudarshan »

^ Maybe plain common sense. Steam inhalation can add to water-logging in lungs in case of pneumonia, and a borderline pass patient can become an outright fail that way. When the patient is already drowning (in h** own fluids), it makes no sense to supply more fluid on top of that. I believe, early on, there was a case of a girl in France who passed away due to COVID, and the death was attributed to the mother's advice to the girl to do steam inhalation, which added even more water to the lungs.
Manas
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Manas »

Cain Marko wrote:Using this forum to make political points is ridiculous. Criticizing Trump's handling of the crisis is fair enough but pretending that others might've done a far better job is a dubious claim at best. The only real comparison would be with Biden, but he wasn't president then, and we'll never truly know. However, from the political games they've played during this time, one can hardly be sure that a Biden admin might have done a far better job.
And no amount of support from noble peoples is going to put Humpty Dumpty together again.
I agree with this. While Trump has a lot of personality flaws and probably can be blamed for not setting a good example top down by consistently wearing masks - blaming Trump for the cases, deaths in the U.S. that have a direct correlation to cultural, dietary, BMI, co-morbidities is nothing more than political and betrays a blind hatred of the man.

BTW as for Biden - his former Chief of Staff Ron Clain (now White House COS designate) is on video (available on YouTube) proudly outlining how badly they messed up the H1N1 crisis ! If H1N1 were as lethal as COVID probably 2M Americans would have died. It took Obama about 6 months to get going to help Africa deal with Ebola when there was a massive crisis in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea and 10K people died. Also the Obama admin apparently used up most of the PPE during H1N1 and failed to restock the national stockpile.

If one looks at the factual account of what was done/not done by the Trump administration there is not a lot of that one can blame the task force or the Administration for. While Dr. Scott Atlas has been around Trump for the last 3-4 months the Trump administration followed the advise from Dr. Fauci (who I increasingly believe has become a politician - he has been a swamp creature heading NIAID for 30+ years, takes great political skills to survive so long a the helm of a NIH agency for 30+ years). Dr. Birx on the other hand has been doing a fantastic job visiting 40+ states, coordinating resources etc. So one cant' blame Trump and not blame Dr. Fauci - if you blame Trump you have to equally hold Dr. Fauci responsible. Also the CDC has lost credibility during this pandemic due to its test screw up Feb and conflicting, flip flop advise on various guidelines every few weeks. In the U.S. Federal structure the Governors wield most of the power. California has had some sort of restrictions since March - but has done a piss poor job getting things under control. Gov. Newsom, Gov. Cuomo get a lot of points for style, demogaguery - but are no more than standard hypocritical politicians. Gov. Cuomo probably caused 10K+ avoidable deaths due to sending infected patients back to nursing homes ! And that guy is apparently getting an Emmy award for his press conferences ! Some people tend to get enamored by "style" as opposed to "substance".

Here is the what the Trump administration did since Jan:

1. Declared a public health emergency back in Jan 2020 (first time in several decades in the U.S.).

2. Banned travel from China.

3. Pence visited the 3M factories in the midwest back in Feb accelerating PPE production (while the U.S. still had to import PPE from China as was most of the world - price paid by the U.S. due to exporting his manufacturing base to China over 2+ decades including under Obama/Biden admin).

4. Launched operation warp speed in March/April to cut red tape and accelerate therapuetics & vaccines.

5. Built field hospitals in NYC with 4K beds (which mostly went unused), New Orleans and many other cities. Sent Navy hospital ships to NYC and LA in March/April.

6. Established an air bridge with 60+ cargo flights to import PPE from China and elsewhere (most of March/April/May).

7. Once the CDC recovered from its botched/screwed up tests in Feb - got the private sector involved to accelerate point of care, rapid tests (Abbott ID Now and more recently BiNax now tests).

8. Coordinated max utilization of various PCR, bulk testing infrastructure what was lying unused in several states due to inefficiencies and lack of the full picture at the state Governor level.

9. Dr. Fauci and CDC woke up late April and started advocating "masks" whereas in Feb/March they were "discouraging" masks. Their cop out reason for doing so - they wanted to keep masks available for health care workers. Guess what ? An ordinary citizen could not have walked into a super market or a drug store and bought masks after early Feb even if they wanted to as there were none available for General public. This particular act of omission and incompetence on the part of Dr. Fauci and CDC is inexcusable. They could have always said wear some "improvised face covering" and a good % of the people would have found a way to protect themselves in March/April.

10. Using defence production act to drive production of ventilators and additional PPE in April/May.

11. Respected the federal structure and let state and local govts make decisions best for their communities.

What this pandemic has exposed is the complexity of a multi payer health care system in a large country with a federal structure. Heck back in April, Trump admin was considering quarantining NYC area (no travel in and out) and Gov. Cuomo was up in arms calling it unconstitutional. The same Mr. Cuomo imposed travel, quarantine restrictions in the summer for people from 40+ states traveling to NYC to area (when NYC was in a better place compared to other states).

It is very disappointing to see very learned members in this forum reflexively blame Trump for all cases/deaths ignoring the ground realities.

I would encourage people to review the Great Barrington declaration (3 professors - one each from Stanford, Harvard ? and Oxford) that have called to protect the highly vulnerable and let the rest of population take basic precautions and get on normal economic activity. A elected politician/govt official has to balance the equation between "lives" and "livelihood". Lockdowns only postpone subsequent waves till a combination vaccines or infected that recover and build immunity ensure that herd immunity status is reached when the pandemic will burn out.

India may see the pandemic burn out by March/April of 2021 with the advent of summer mostly due to herd immunity (even without large scale vaccination). Due to asymptomatic cases and transmission & varying degrees/availability of testing - none of the case numbers from any of the countries are accurate or reliable. The U.S. surely leads the world with test coverage especially the last 3+ months that directly correlates to steady increase in cases and the onset of cold weather has compounded indoor transmission amongst friends/family. Neither Trump, Biden, Dr. Fauci, Dr. Birx or Ron Klain can do anything about this. If people refuse to wear masks (especially indoors amongst their close friends/family - there is nothing a governor, mayor, police chief, sheriff can do).

Now that Trump will be gone Jan 20th 2021 best to be objective in our analysis and not continue to politicize this pandemic. All the democrats and Biden did are politicize the pandemic in an election year.
Karan M
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Karan M »

sudarshan wrote:^ Maybe plain common sense. Steam inhalation can add to water-logging in lungs in case of pneumonia, and a borderline pass patient can become an outright fail that way. When the patient is already drowning (in h** own fluids), it makes no sense to supply more fluid on top of that. I believe, early on, there was a case of a girl in France who passed away due to COVID, and the death was attributed to the mother's advice to the girl to do steam inhalation, which added even more water to the lungs.
I can provide anecdotal experience here. I did a lot of steam inhalation when down with a moderate cold at high alt. It progressed to severe ear/chest infection within a few days and had to get on antibiotics on account of unbearable pain plus rapid fever. I think Drs can correct me if I am mistaken but steam inhalation driven pneumonia or something called hot shower pneumonia is also mentioned in literature.
Karan M
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Karan M »

Manas, great post. I think Trumps biggest enemy was his own PR. Drowned in taking potshots at opponents whereas what good steps he did take were lost in the cacophony and his opponents could portray him effectively as a bumbling train wreck.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Karan M »

vera_k wrote:Could be as simple as BCG vaccination in India providing some protection. Additionally, greater ultraviolet radiation and lack of conditioned spaces has possibly helped reduce the spread. Indian management of the pandemic is not great compared to the stupendous success seen in China, if Chinese stats are to be believed.
If anyone believes Chinese stats of any kind, I have a red bridge, moderately used, available at a great price.
Cain Marko
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Cain Marko »

Manas wrote:If one looks at the factual account of what was done/not done by the Trump administration there is not a lot of that one can blame the task force or the Administration for. While Dr. Scott Atlas has been around Trump for the last 3-4 months the Trump administration followed the advise from Dr. Fauci (who I increasingly believe has become a politician - he has been a swamp creature heading NIAID for 30+ years, takes great political skills to survive so long a the helm of a NIH agency for 30+ years). Dr. Birx on the other hand has been doing a fantastic job visiting 40+ states, coordinating resources etc. So one cant' blame Trump and not blame Dr. Fauci - if you blame Trump you have to equally hold Dr. Fauci responsible. Also the CDC has lost credibility during this pandemic due to its test screw up Feb and conflicting, flip flop advise on various guidelines every few weeks. In the U.S. Federal structure the Governors wield most of the power. California has had some sort of restrictions since March - but has done a piss poor job getting things under control. Gov. Newsom, Gov. Cuomo get a lot of points for style, demogaguery - but are no more than standard hypocritical politicians. Gov. Cuomo probably caused 10K+ avoidable deaths due to sending infected patients back to nursing homes ! And that guy is apparently getting an Emmy award for his press conferences ! Some people tend to get enamored by "style" as opposed to "substance".

It is very disappointing to see very learned members in this forum reflexively blame Trump for all cases/deaths ignoring the ground realities.
Agreed, and good points. The couple of things Trump could've done better imho: Opened up later than he actually did, and used the extra time to really put in place a proper test/trace/quarantine structure in place. WRT bolded points, it makes me wonder too...perhaps being part of a particular occupational community makes it harder for one to think outside that space.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by darshan »

Just need to pay attention to how the narrative was shifted from the chinese virus to mask policy. Trump made a critical mistake of taking the bait. Instead he should have continued to talk about how due to chinese everyone would have to wear masks and have to alter lifestyles.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Vayutuvan »

saip wrote:Right now, India has 440,000 active cases and daily death rate of around 500. In US, CA alone has over 500k active case and daily deaths in the USA have topped 2000. What explains these numbers? Bad statistics from India? Or bad management of the pandemic in the USA?
Yet another possibility which you conveniently skipped mentioning is -
bad management of the pandemic by Gavin Newsom. :rotfl: :mrgreen:
Cyrano
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Cyrano »

I've watched nearly everyone of Trump's daily CV briefings live from the WH - they have all been self serving comedy gigs while "experts" he put-up on stage were cringing or cringe worthy. I've also followed diverse news & expert reports, I speak often to the large group of family and friends in US, several of them doctors incl some who head big hospitals, scientists, techies, bankers and businessmen whom I consider to be of impeccable integrity. And with a much larger group of qualified people in India. Living in Europe, I could compare daily with how other developed nations have reacted to and dealt with CV and as the Pandemic evolved. Plus the information and insights posted on BR. I'm fully conscious of what I'm saying below and standby every word.

Trump was briefed very early on Covid. Not only by his closest aides & advisors, but also his Admin experts, some international leaders as well. So we can rule out misinformation and ignorance. The 3 key principles he applies together form the prism through which he views everything and acts are:

1. What does it mean for Trump Businesses ? Can they lose/make money from it?
2. What does it mean for MY re-election ?
3. "I'm ALWAYS the smartest guy in the room and if someone is saying something I don't get or like, they are conning me because they don't like me" attitude.

The impact of travel bans, lockdowns, distancing measures, stimulus packages, stockpiles... everything he did since the Pandemic broke out follows from the prism above. He first tried to convince everyone that CV is nothing and will disappear, then focused on calling it the China virus (which does nothing to fight it), downplayed its intensity, pushed stimulus plans to prop up the stock market so that he can crow about it, then when he realised money can be made from it, he paraded various businessmen* and lobbyists* in WH briefings who would say inane things or sing his praises, made masks a political issue, jeez... He's been a blathering idiot, desperate not for what CV would do to the American people, the GOP, or at least to its 70M+ supporters, but solely for securing his business and reelection chances. Whatever "accomplishments" are listed above happened despite him, when he was not looking or whenever a few sane people could get it across to him that doing something would benefit him personally or that he isn't being conned into doing something.

*I'd bet each of these people have paid $$$ for their 5 mins limelight on national TV with Orangeutan. The Art of Presidential Steal at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives and immeasurable harm to a great nation, will be revealed in its full glory in a few months, just wait.

Sorry for the OT but I couldn't let this Trump whitewashing under the guise of Covid situation in the US pass for truth unopposed. If those posts are deleted, I'll gladly delete this one.
darshan
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by darshan »

As chinese virus cases are rising again in India, the money making and price gouging is also getting out of control. In Gujarat, it's costing run around to multiple hospitals and tens of thousands of rupees to obtain diagnosis for non chinese virus issue. That's just the diagnosis or the first step.
vijayk
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/ ... 359544002/

When could the first COVID-19 vaccines be given in the US?
Given the regulatory timeline, Dec. 13 is the earliest the first round of vaccine against the coronavirus could start to be given to select Americans.

Less than a year after the unprecedented effort began, the first COVID-19 vaccines are expected to reach Americans within weeks. No one knows for certain, but Dec. 13 is the first possible day the vaccine could be administered — although the week after is more likely. Here's how we get there:

Pfizer and its German collaborator BioNTech applied for emergency use authorization for their COVID-19 vaccine from the Food and Drug Administration.

Moderna is expected to send in its application for its vaccine one to two weeks later, perhaps by Dec. 4.

An emergency use authorization is a fast track vaccine authorization that can be processed much more quickly than the usual Biologics License Application, which results in FDA licensing a drug or vaccine
sudarshan
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sudarshan »

saip wrote:Still, I see a flatenning of the new cases at -5000 a day. At one point there was a steep decrease of almost -18000 a day. Too good to continue. Now, I hear there will be Tungabhdra Pushakaralu where hundreds of thousands will congregate (over 10,000 govt officials are on duty) over 11 days from Nov 20th to Dec 1. Hope that does not become a super spreader in andhra pradesh and telengana.
Expecting the decrease to continue in linear fashion is certainly unrealistic, at some point the exponential nature of the phenomenon will start to show as a reduction in the rate and a curvature in the trend. However, what actually happened was a complete stop of the decline, and a mild rise in fact. I calculated that the difference between the actual curve, and the curve if the decline had continued linearly, was of the order of 1,200 deaths/ week in India. Accounting for the expected slowdown in the decline due to the exponential nature of the curve - one can maybe halve that difference, to 600 deaths/ week. That's just from the rise after Navratri (which I'm attributing to Navratri, but correlation is not causation, as we all know). The latest uptrend a week after Deepavali (correlated with Deepavali, don't know if it is caused by Deepavali) is going to add to that.
Cain Marko wrote: Perhaps Sankranti and Marriage season won't be so bad because many of the festivities happen outside? one reason touted for the possibility of increasing numbers in the US is the onset of winter and the need to stay indoors during cold weather.
If they are going to add to the deaths in similar numbers to what is above, then I feel it is still a cause for concern. I'm not telling people not to celebrate, just wish they would continue to follow elementary precautions and not give in to pandemic fatigue.

@Cyrano - sadly, I got to agree that Trump's response was motivated by self interest, and that any positive response happened in spite of Trump. I still feel that the dems would have messed up just as bad, being China-friendly and all (which means - they might even have delayed on blocking flights from China).

The positivity rate in the US is starting to decline. Case counts are still rising, but that's because testing is at a record of 2M per day now, it's jumped significantly even over the past week.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

saip wrote:Right now, India has 440,000 active cases and daily death rate of around 500. In US, CA alone has over 500k active case and daily deaths in the USA have topped 2000. What explains these numbers? Bad statistics from India? Or bad management of the pandemic in the USA?
From anecdotal information (no data) coming from family members who are doctors in central and western India, there is under reporting of deaths in India. When a person dies in a family, covid may be the cause of death, but they may have had pre-existing health problems and age, state officials don't mark it as a covid death. This works since the family members are not sick and don't have to quarantine. The families can continue their daily livelihood. It is a win-win for the family and state administration. I've been told there are many asymptomatic people out in the public who have covid, but for many it is not as severe. The combination of ashwagandha, giloy, and tulsi reduces the viral load. The Baba Ramdev Patanjali Coronil seems to work in reducing the viral load - again no data to support it, but I personally know a lot of people in India who are taking this and still observing mask wearing and social distancing.

Below is a link on the Health Ministry regarding Ayurvedic medicines for Covid:
https://health.economictimes.indiatimes ... a/78514181
https://www.ayush.gov.in/

Image
saip
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by saip »

Vayutuvan wrote:
saip wrote:Right now, India has 440,000 active cases and daily death rate of around 500. In US, CA alone has over 500k active case and daily deaths in the USA have topped 2000. What explains these numbers? Bad statistics from India? Or bad management of the pandemic in the USA?
Yet another possibility which you conveniently skipped mentioning is -
bad management of the pandemic by Gavin Newsom. :rotfl: :mrgreen:
And you ignore that FL has same number as CA (around 1400 per 100k) and AZ has Twice as many (3300). At least CA has imposed restrictions now - night curfew, but not so FL and AZ. Are the red states any better? :rotfl: :mrgreen: :rotfl: :mrgreen:
Let us NOT get into this p**ing contest or breapers will get us.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

CA may be under reporting. CA ranks 23/56 states and union territories for testing per 1M and has very high homeless rate. A lot has probably been missed.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Tanaji »

Cases are rising in Mumbai apparently. A lot of acquaintances got infected, I suppose it is due to the mixing at Diwali. There are videos floating about that how people are dying in Delhi at home due to no beds in hospitals and these numbers don’t get counted in official statistics. The official statistics dont show a rise yet though...
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Vayutuvan »

saip wrote:Let us NOT get into this p**ing contest or breapers will get us.
Follow your own advise, or is it an unknown concept for you CA folks get your heads around? First time Newsome apologized for eating at a restaurant but said that at was an outdoor diner. Then photos of his having dinner indoors got leaked. Nobody was wearing a mask.

Looks like Huntington Beach folks were so impressed with his handling of the pandemic, they came out in large numbers and shouted "abki baar noisome sarkar"
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Vayutuvan »

Mort Walker wrote:CA may be under reporting. CA ranks 23/56 states and union territories for testing per 1M and has very high homeless rate. A lot has probably been missed.
Quite a few might have moved to GA temporarily adding to GA's covid infection rates. :mrgreen:
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

I've ordered my Patanjali Coronil kit from Amazon here in the US. Sells for $25-$30 and is Rs. 400-500 in India. From speaking to immediate family in India, it does seem to lessen the viral load for many people in all age groups. Vaccines for the mango man will be March-May, and it is only a matter of time before one contracts it unless they are wealthy self-employed/retired. The concern is how long can it be delayed with preventive measures?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Primus »

Cyrano wrote:I've watched nearly everyone of Trump's daily CV briefings live from the WH - they have all been self serving comedy gigs while "experts" he put-up on stage were cringing or cringe worthy. I've also followed diverse news & expert reports, I speak often to the large group of family and friends in US, several of them doctors incl some who head big hospitals, scientists, techies, bankers and businessmen whom I consider to be of impeccable integrity. And with a much larger group of qualified people in India. Living in Europe, I could compare daily with how other developed nations have reacted to and dealt with CV and as the Pandemic evolved. Plus the information and insights posted on BR. I'm fully conscious of what I'm saying below and standby every word.

Trump was briefed very early on Covid. Not only by his closest aides & advisors, but also his Admin experts, some international leaders as well. So we can rule out misinformation and ignorance. The 3 key principles he applies together form the prism through which he views everything and acts are:

1. What does it mean for Trump Businesses ? Can they lose/make money from it?
2. What does it mean for MY re-election ?
3. "I'm ALWAYS the smartest guy in the room and if someone is saying something I don't get or like, they are conning me because they don't like me" attitude.

The impact of travel bans, lockdowns, distancing measures, stimulus packages, stockpiles... everything he did since the Pandemic broke out follows from the prism above. He first tried to convince everyone that CV is nothing and will disappear, then focused on calling it the China virus (which does nothing to fight it), downplayed its intensity, pushed stimulus plans to prop up the stock market so that he can crow about it, then when he realised money can be made from it, he paraded various businessmen* and lobbyists* in WH briefings who would say inane things or sing his praises, made masks a political issue, jeez... He's been a blathering idiot, desperate not for what CV would do to the American people, the GOP, or at least to its 70M+ supporters, but solely for securing his business and reelection chances. Whatever "accomplishments" are listed above happened despite him, when he was not looking or whenever a few sane people could get it across to him that doing something would benefit him personally or that he isn't being conned into doing something.

*I'd bet each of these people have paid $$$ for their 5 mins limelight on national TV with Orangeutan. The Art of Presidential Steal at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives and immeasurable harm to a great nation, will be revealed in its full glory in a few months, just wait.

Sorry for the OT but I couldn't let this Trump whitewashing under the guise of Covid situation in the US pass for truth unopposed. If those posts are deleted, I'll gladly delete this one.
I agree with your assessment of Trump's character. He is a strange fella, his motivations and appetites were amply described in Scott Adams's 'Win Bigly'. His briefings are mostly showbiz and he does come across as a bumbling idiot. But people often forget Ronald Reagan in his second term was actually seriously handicapped with dementia, FWIW.

I have lived here in the epicenter of CV and have watched the daily briefings of Cuomo and others throughout the period of crisis. I have lived through it, felt it, been affected by it economically and socially. Thankfully did not catch it myself, but know lots of friends and colleagues who did, some have died. Many of my own patients have also passed on.

What this admin has done, despite all the odds is truly remarkable. I find it ironic that Europeans point fingers at the US when their own backyards are no better and in some cases, worse. So many countries have an equal or higher no. of case and deaths per million population. One can only assume that Trump's writ does not extend to Spain, France, Italy, UK, Belgium etc. If it was political will alone that determined the outcome of this virus, then Europe, with presumably a more wise and capable leadership would have had a far better outcome. And yet, it is not so.

The CDC was politicized long before Trump came on the scene. Fauci flip-flops constantly, I have watched his daily morning interviews with ABC news.

The US is a federation of States, each Governor has the capacity to follow the Federal guidelines and/or institute his own. NY was a case-leader for a long time, Cuomo did nothing but give fancy talks every day, he too had all the facts, same as Trump, yet chose to blame the Federal government despite all the help he received from them. He could have instituted all the precautions, locked things down, issued warnings to wear masks, protected the nursing home residents and the elderly, but none of that happened until it was too late. So many of my elderly patients died.

Trump may be a despicable person, and there is no doubt that his administration could have handled CV better, but what they did is no less remarkable. That we have a vaccine in less than 10 months is unprecedented, the credit must go to them, no matter what else can be said. It was the active participation of the NIH and the decision by the Trump administration to indemnify Big Pharma against any failures that led to the 'warp speed' development of the vaccine (esp the Moderna one), where they went straight from Phase I to Phase III trials. All this happened because of this admin, not despite it.

Sometimes a balance has to be struck between food on the table and health. I have personally seen families go hungry because the breadwinner could not work due to all the closures. A sizable number of my patients are from the lowest stratum of society, many are illegal immigrants, the economic hardship faced by these people is hard to imagine by those of us who have the capacity to survive for several months without a paycheck.

For the record, I am not a Trump supporter, never was, but I can't stand the self-righteous cacophony from the other side either.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/20/us/c ... urfew.html
CALIFORNIA TODAY
What to Know About the California Curfew
Friday: California officials announced the most sweeping restrictions since the state’s first stay-at-home order in March.
Jill Cowan, Marie Tae McDermott, Nov. 20, 2020

Good morning.
California officials on Thursday announced a curfew aimed at quickly curbing a surge of corona virus infections, prohibiting nearly all residents of the state, the nation’s most populous, from leaving their homes to do nonessential work or to gather from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m., in the most severe lock down since the state put in place its first stay-at-home order in March.
“We are sounding the alarm,” Gov. Gavin Newsom said in a statement. “It is crucial that we act to decrease transmission and slow hospitalizations before the death count surges. We’ve done it before and we must do it again.”
The new stay-at-home order is described as more limited than the spring order; in addition to applying only overnight, it has a built-in expiration date for now, and applies only to so-called purple tier counties, which are under the state’s most stringent restrictions in its reopening plan. It will go into effect Saturday night and will remain in place until the morning of Dec. 21. As in the spring order, residents can still go outside for walks or to go to work in what are deemed essential jobs, like in grocery stores, and it doesn’t apply to people experiencing homelessness. Restaurants, which are deemed essential, can continue to do takeout and delivery. But it effectively forces all restaurants to close in-person operations at 10 p.m., even if they are operating outdoors. As with the spring order, it is likely to be enforced differently across the state, depending on the severity of violations and the attitudes of local leaders. Officials didn’t make clear what enforcement might look like.
.....
Gautam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Cyrano »

Primus ji,
This Pandemic has been and will continue to be an extremely fascinating study on several social phenomena in the face of a deadly menace, for years after it ceases to be a threat. Trump's behaviour is but one part of it.

CV has made visible several contradictions and inconsistencies in how Govts respond, and how people react themselves and to how their Govts respond.

It has challenged our world view both from an existential and an epistemological point of view.

It has questioned our ability to deal with incomplete information, uncertainty and the evolving nature of the threat.

The role of "Big" government - should it be greater or lesser ? Are the Govt's themselves best informed? Is transparency good or bad? How much transparency? Was it a good idea in the beginning to say masks are not important to prevent a run on them when there weren't enough masks for healthcare and frontline workers? Should people take Govt seriously when they reverse their stand on masks when they are in adequate supply? Not only US, but also France did this flipflop on masks.

If Big govt is making all the decisions like lockdowns, curfews etc, does it dilute the notion of individual responsibility? Despite lockdowns, if cases rise again, should people be expected to trust the Govt when fresh restrictions are imposed?

Where is the balance between scaring the public about the danger of CV to get them to comply vs. reassuring them that CV is controllable, vaccines are on the way, its not as deadly as it first seemed, giving hope. Should Govts change/reverse policies in the light of new information in an evolving Pandemic at the risk of discrediting themselves later? Is it OK or right for GOvts to say they "don't know" when they really don't? Will every society react like the Swedes when the Govt admits they got it wrong?

Is it acceptable to try unproven therapies and remedies when people are dying? Prof Raoul was been widely criticised on HCQ. Are Double Blind tests really the most trustworthy? Are observational studies always to be scoffed at?

Like you said, how can we judge the actions of vulnerable people who are compelled to choose between starving and dying of CV? Don't Govts that impose lockdowns and takeaway the ability to earn livelihood have the obligation to sustain the population while it lasts?

Though the virus itself doesn't discriminate, the rich and the well off have a lot more means to evade it and live well for a considerable length of time, and get treated better than the poor and less well off. Is this acceptable in prosperous 21st century societies?

How much solidarity should we expect among people to help each other when such benevolent acts themselves can lead to further spread? Is it OK for people to fall into frustration, depression, become irritable, do alcohol and substance abuse, snap into domestic/social violence, which long term restrictive lifestyle is bound to generate instead of falling sick and hopefully survive and be OK after (if they survive). The effect on children?

The role of media, MSM or SM has been a catalyst for good and bad things. But I think mostly they have played a helpful role here and most Govts recognise this, and have started to factor in their reach and impact rather well. The use of track & trace apps has generated a vigorous debate on individual privacy vs social responsibility & Govt control.

International reaction to China's acts of commission and/or omission is yet another open question for the future.

It must be noted that this pandemic is still benign in some key respects - doesn't kill children, affects women very less - survival of families, races, societies and human species is not under threat. Though significant after effects remain, CV doesn't cripple for life like for ex. Polio does. Mortality rates wise there have been worse diseases in recent history. What would be our reaction if this were NOT the case with a future Pandemic? Shudder !!

Faced with such a complex situation where there are mostly suboptimal choices expected to deliver doubtful results, most Govts have indeed struggled. But when the intent and the endeavour is, and is clearly seen as, motivated by public good, by and large people will recognise it and do their part to help improve or at the least not degrade the situation. Sadly, thats what was missing in the case of Trump, and the result is here for all to see. I'm hoping Biden Govt will do better, remains to be seen.

Most Govts have managed not to let the situation go out totally of control despite having or not having the resources, because of the right intent and endeavour and continue to be trusted by people. India is a shining example of the latter.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by prasannasimha »

https://twitter.com/raveenaujmaya/statu ... 08770?s=20

Massive chaos at the #Shanghai Pudong International Airport in #China after sudden announcement by the authorities to test all staff for #COVID19 after detection of two positive cases. The crowd trying to break the blockade as were forced to be quarantined. #Coronavirus
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Primus »

Cyrano Ji, I completely agree with most of what you are saying, in fact, all of it with minor exceptions. I believe you have detailed most of the issues the human society faces with this virus today - or for that matter, with any other pandemic.

The last several months have been a roller-coaster ride for all of us, especially those in the health care field. The hardest part has been the frustration with lack of information and equally, too much misinformation. Flip-flops by WHO, CDC and people with massive followings like Fauci did not help. Patients were looking to us for guidance and coming up with their own theories based on the ubiquitous internet. Close friends, even family were terrified of visiting, each trip to the grocery store became an adventure.

In all of this, governments were floundering with decisions that were very hard to make as we all know - it is a delicate balance between economy and health. In the end, despite everything this pandemic has not taken the toll we all thought it would. 250K in the US alone is no small number, but is far less than was feared initially. It seems that the most vulnerable adults are the most likely to die, as expected with any serious illness. The biggest saving grace is how well children seem to be protected, mortality from COVID is actually far less than from Measles or Influenza.

So do we open the schools or not? Tough question given that adults are also part of the school system. What about day care facilities for the family whose child has to stay home from school while the parents have to go to work? This is just one of many questions the government or those in charge of making the decisions have to consider. Not an easy task given so many different motivations, so many different advisors and so much lobbying.

At the end of the day, when this is all over there will be a reckoning of course, our future generations with the benefit of hindsight will judge us, I do hope they are merciful. For now, India does seem to be the only beacon of hope in this dark night. The reasons remain a mystery but the intent, as you rightly say, has never been wrong. We can be thankful for that, if nothing else.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Jay »

Primus wrote:
Trump may be a despicable person, and there is no doubt that his administration could have handled CV better, but what they did is no less remarkable. That we have a vaccine in less than 10 months is unprecedented, the credit must go to them, no matter what else can be said.
Primus ji, to an extent I agree that not everything Trump did was bad and there is a major way he is demonized in the public media, for things prior presidents, and democrats have done in the past. I absolutely do not agree that what his administration did was remarkable and it was very ordinary and the proof of it is in the daily covid deaths that are occurring and accelerating even as we move into 11th month of the pandemic in the US. Trump himself promoted various dubious treatments in the early days, downplayed the seriousness of the virus, promoted election campaigns, and white house events that directly contributed to the spread of the virus, and most importantly denied the financial aid to the masses which would have enabled less commercial activities to get a handle on the transmission rates.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by IndraD »

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-healt ... KKBN28327O
punch of luck behind success of Oxford vaccine. A half followed by a full dose of vaccine 3 weeks later yielded 90% effectiveness. Half dose was retained as it caused less side effects , initial plan was to give 2 full doses 3 weeks apart which gave only 70% effectiveness. Oxford is the vaccine world is looking forward to cos it is easy on logistics.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Jay »

Manas wrote: I agree with this. While Trump has a lot of personality flaws and probably can be blamed for not setting a good example top down by consistently wearing masks - blaming Trump for the cases, deaths in the U.S. that have a direct correlation to cultural, dietary, BMI, co-morbidities is nothing more than political and betrays a blind hatred of the man.
I agree that he is not responsible for 100% of the blame. But his contributions towards Covid deaths include ignoring the pandemic handbook and cutting funds to CDC, especially the pandemic division which is responsible to handle this exact scenario, undermining the virus as a flu which will go away in a few weeks, advocating unproven drugs, advocating no lockdown measures to curb the spread, organizing super spreader events, withholding economic stimulus and making it hard for businesses to recover.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump ... 2020-03-12

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/ ... re-deadly/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewsole ... loroquine/

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/coro ... n-n1187596
BTW as for Biden - his former Chief of Staff Ron Clain (now White House COS designate) is on video (available on YouTube) proudly outlining how badly they messed up the H1N1 crisis ! If H1N1 were as lethal as COVID probably 2M Americans would have died.
The 2009 H1N1 pandemic caused 3900 deaths. The same number of deaths US had in the least 3 days because of Covid. Yet you are blaming 2009 Obama for mismanagement. Oh the irony. In April 2009 when H1N1 hit US, Obama was president for less than 100 days at that point, Obama's HHS secretary was still not confirmed by the senate, there were no appointments yet for FDA, CDC, and no surgeon general. Initially the CDC had issued a recommendation that schools close for as long as two weeks if a student catches swine flu. Some school districts closed all schools if a single child was classified as probable. However, on knowing more about H1N1 death's, in May 2009 the CDC retracted its advice stating that schools that were closed based on previous CDC guidance related to this outbreak may reopen. In October of that year, his Obama admin declared H1N1 as a national emergency to get the country prepared for the second wave. At the end of the day, if you are arguing that H1N1 and Covid-19 are the same, then you are no different from people who still argue that Covid is same as the Flu.
It took Obama about 6 months to get going to help Africa deal with Ebola when there was a massive crisis in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea and 10K people died. Also the Obama admin apparently used up most of the PPE during H1N1 and failed to restock the national stockpile.
WHO was the main body coordinating Ebola response and CDC, under WHO got involved during the early days of the crisis. I'm not sure what you mean when you say it took US 6 months to get going?

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2016 ... ponse.html

Regarding the PPE stockpiles, Trump was president since January 2017. If he saw lack of strategic reserves of PPE as a major weakness, then was his admin lax in replenishing the stockpile? Obama was 4 years ago. How long will he blame his failures on other people while taking zero responsibility?

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2 ... kpile-wro/
So one cant' blame Trump and not blame Dr. Fauci - if you blame Trump you have to equally hold Dr. Fauci responsible.
Allright, What should we hold Fauci responsible for? He is a member of the Covid White House task force headed by Pence. He is not a Czar acting by his own accord. If he's doing a bad job, why did not Trump fire him yet?
Also the CDC has lost credibility during this pandemic due to its test screw up Feb and conflicting, flip flop advise on various guidelines every few weeks.
No doubt about this. CDC was an embarrassment. NYTimes did an excelled long piece investigation on its failures. Long read, but worth it

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/03/us/c ... virus.html
In the U.S. Federal structure the Governors wield most of the power. California has had some sort of restrictions since March - but has done a piss poor job getting things under control. Gov. Newsom, Gov. Cuomo get a lot of points for style, demogaguery - but are no more than standard hypocritical politicians. Gov. Cuomo probably caused 10K+ avoidable deaths due to sending infected patients back to nursing homes ! And that guy is apparently getting an Emmy award for his press conferences ! Some people tend to get enamored by "style" as opposed to "substance".


Both Newsom and Cuomo should thank Trump because the media and to an extent the populace put Trump and his actions under a microscope while giving these two a-holes a pass. They both mismanaged Covid in CA, and NY in a major way.
I would encourage people to review the Great Barrington declaration (3 professors - one each from Stanford, Harvard ? and Oxford) that have called to protect the highly vulnerable and let the rest of population take basic precautions and get on normal economic activity.
The Barrington declaration, though very logical and common sense approach, will be a non starter in an US federal/state/judicial structure unless it's adapted as a top down approach.
India may see the pandemic burn out by March/April of 2021 with the advent of summer mostly due to herd immunity (even without large scale vaccination).
I pray this is the case. I do not want to see the deaths of our countrymen nor their economic mobility slipped back because of this pandemic.
If people refuse to wear masks (especially indoors amongst their close friends/family - there is nothing a governor, mayor, police chief, sheriff can do).
There are people still refusing to do this in my neck of the woods.
Now that Trump will be gone Jan 20th 2021 best to be objective in our analysis and not continue to politicize this pandemic.
Regardless of who is in the Pres seat, there is not a chance this won't be politicized. Same thing happened in 2003, 2009, 2014, and 2020. As long as the admin response if good, we need to learn to tune out the political points.
Last edited by Jay on 24 Nov 2020 08:57, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

This well article from Stanford explains how viruses work (particularly Corona viruses) and how treatments to combat these viruses are developed.
Technically accurate and written in clear understandable terms for a wide audience.
https://stanmed.stanford.edu/2020issue2 ... ments.html
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by saip »

Jay, great post.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sudeepj »

American elite should thank their stars that they have a very convenient fall guy in Trump.

If Trump was uniquely bad, how is it that so many European countries have the same or worse population adjusted infection rates?

Different US states have very different political ideas and are run by democrats. How is it that these states, NY, CA come to mind immediately, are more or less as bad as the Republican states? Residuary powers in the US rest with governors and even local officials have enormous powers. Did Trump force these people to do the things they did? States like CA & NY have significant resources to implement technology enabled contact tracing, what stopped them from doing so?

The US is experiencing what India experienced in the 90s. The older stories everyone believed in dont work any more, and new ones are not created yet. Hopefully, they are able to sort things out fast. Trump is both a symptom of this malaise and also an 'accelerant' of chaos, out of which we may eventually get the much needed change.
Last edited by sudeepj on 24 Nov 2020 06:21, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Vayutuvan »

Jay wrote:Trump himself promoted various dubious treatments in the early days,
In Jan 2020, he put a ban on inbound flights from China and started PPP with NIH-Moderna
downplayed the seriousness of the virus, promoted election campaigns
Jan through March 2020, Dems were playing impeachment drama while NYC Mayor asked people to go out and enjoy Same with N. Pelosi asking people to go to China town in SF
, and white house events that directly contributed to the spread of the virus
Protests and riots were also going on at around the same time in which many people were seen without nor social distancing!
, and most importantly denied the financial aid to the masses which would have enabled less commercial activities to get a handle on the transmission rates.
Dems led by Pelosi didn't come to the table. They put in some porkbarrel stuff like $30 million to National Foundation of Arts (IIRC).
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Vayutuvan »

saip wrote:Jay, great post.
See my above post.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

sudeepj wrote:The US is experiencing what India experienced in the 90s. The older stories everyone believed in dont work any more, and new ones are not created yet.
Great point. This explains why the polls keep predicting the opposite of what the election outcomes are. They are trying to keep the dam from breaking, but will be swept away eventually.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Cain Marko »

sudeepj wrote:American elite should thank their stars that they have a very convenient fall guy in Trump.
If Trump was uniquely bad, how is it that so many European countries have the same or worse population adjusted infection rates?
.
Ayyo! Why ask such uncomfortable questions. Its all cause of Orangeman, don't you know!
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Jay »

Vayutuvan wrote: In Jan 2020, he put a ban on inbound flights from China and started PPP with NIH-Moderna
Both good moves, but as you can see, they did not go too far in curbing the death rates, and more importantly the spread rate of this pandemic with the end result being the economy still is supressed.
Jan through March 2020, Dems were playing impeachment drama while NYC Mayor asked people to go out and enjoy Same with N. Pelosi asking people to go to China town in SF
January 2020 seems to be a different universe with people and politicians not realizing what was about to hit them. Impeachment proceedings are OT for this discussion. Pelosi/Dems message in Jan/Feb of this year was in response to some racist incidents, and messages targeting Chinese restaurants to not be frequented. This was also before CA/Bay Area went into the most stringent lockdown in March. That was the time when Trump initially called this a "China Virus" to appeal to his base, and Pelosi countered that message to appeal to her base of support. Once lockdowns started in mid March, we all know which side stood where and what the outcomes were.
Protests and riots were also going on at around the same time in which many people were seen without nor social distancing!
Oh without a doubt those contributed as well. One consolation is that at least these protestors wore masks, unlike the MAGA kind.
Dems led by Pelosi didn't come to the table. They put in some porkbarrel stuff like $30 million to National Foundation of Arts (IIRC).
There is pork from both the sides in the bill. I have not read about funding for NFA but I do not doubt that there are things in this Coronavirus stimuls bill that one side wants to push and the other side saying No Dice. Like including $8B for weapons procurement in this bill which laughably includes $650 million project to replace the wings of A-10 Thunderbolt ground support aircraft, many of which are based at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base in Tucson, this from GOP. At the end of the day, Trump with a Senate majority did not deliver on the economic relief.

NOTE:Maybe this deep post mortem of what was done and not done by US/Trump admin might be OT for this thread. Mods, please feel free to move if this post is breaking any rules.
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