2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

All threads that are locked or marked for deletion will be moved to this forum. The topics will be cleared from this archive on the 1st and 16th of each month.
Locked
chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 32449
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

for those who thought that the ltte was done and dusted, it is indeed seemingly thriving in the UK, nurtured and kept well watered by the BIF whose east timor like plans for south India are ticking along, aided by local collaborators in TN and AP, with some hopefuls and peacefuls from KER joining in as well.

The ltte is alive and kicking and is being well looked after in britshitland with the benign indulgence of the state as was the case during the first "eelam" war too.

But this time around, britshitland will not escape unscathed like it managed to do the last time where the weak ass GOI did not hold her majesty's govt to account for its perfidious acts of omission and commission during the first eelam war along with a number of other treacherous european govts, aided and abetted by equally duplicitous authorities in rome.

motabhai will not forget nor will he forgive what was done by the britshits starting from his gujarat days.

Is the Tamil Tiger free to roam Britain’s streets?


Is the Tamil Tiger free to roam Britain’s streets?

Paul Stott
November 28, 2020,


In 2019, five British based members of the Transnational Government of Tamil Eelam, an organisation banned in Sri Lanka, but legal in the UK, appealed to the Home Secretary to remove the Tamil Tigers from the list of organisations proscribed by the Terrorism Act 2000.

The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and the broader Tamil separatist cause have long been observable in the United Kingdom by those who care to look. Britain was an important source of funds for the Tamil Tigers, with Tamils donating millions from both legal businesses and criminal fraud. That money oiled the LTTE’s huge paramilitary machine, even after the international attention afforded by the 1991 assassination of Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, and the 1993 murder of Sri Lankan President Ranasinghe Premadasa. Both died in suicide bombings, a tactic perfected by the LTTE. In 2007, media reports estimated over £30 million had been fraudulently raised for the Tamil Tigers in Britain via credit card scams at over 200 petrol stations. Photographs of the late LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran may still occasionally be spotted behind the counter of corner shops owned by Tamil migrants, whilst the military defeat of the LTTE in 2009 was marked by hunger strikes and large protests in central London. The then Labour government, with David Miliband as Foreign Secretary, appeared deeply uncomfortable with the Sri Lankan government’s actions, whilst Colombo, seeing victory at hand in a decades-old conflict that had scarred the island, felt the former colonial power should mind its own business.

The Tamils were left equally exasperated when new Labour’s rhetoric about the need for a “ceasefire” and old standards about UN resolution, came to nothing. This was British diplomacy at its worst—unwilling to do much except stake out the moral high ground, then sit there, angering both sides and pleasing no one outside of a small section of its domestic audience. The Tamil cause, however, has not gone away. In 2019, five British based members of the Transnational Government of Tamil Eelam (TGTE, an organisation banned in Sri Lanka, but legal in the UK) appealed to the Home Secretary to remove the Tamil Tigers from the list of organisations proscribed by the Terrorism Act 2000. This makes membership of and support for, a long list of organisations, illegal, and is a core tool in the fight against terrorism. It also has considerable diplomatic value.

Proscribing terrorist organisations who may have a determined presence in a particular country, but a marginal one in Britain, shows a degree of solidarity for nation states wrestling with those who use violence to advance their aims. It can also act as a salve—in recent years, the UK authorities have made much of the proscription of several far-right organisations. Although their bark appears considerably worse than their bite, dealing with fascists in this manner does the police no harm in their outreach work with minority communities.

Having been unsuccessful in 2019, the TGTE this year returned to court. Evidence from British counter-terrorism officials heard by the Proscribed Organisation Appeal Commission, stressed that whilst the LTTE had been defeated in Sri Lanka in 2009, its international networks remained largely intact. They have never renounced violence. We can also add here that the type of gestures, statements or decommissioning from paramilitary organisations which characterised the end of armed conflicts in places like Northern Ireland or South Africa, appear absent. Arrests of LTTE operatives in Sri Lanka and India, and armed actions in Sri Lanka by individuals identified previously as Tamil Tigers, suggest an organisation that still sees utility in illegal activities. It was the view of the judges hearing the TGTE appeal, however, that the standard of evidence “requires the organisation itself to commit or to participate in terrorism” and that there are questions as to whether the LTTE has the capacity to do so. Evidence supplied from the Sri Lankan authorities was found to be weak. At the time of writing, the LTTE remains on the UK government’s list of proscribed organisations, but with an appeal against this to follow.


Diplomatically, this puts Britain in a difficult position. Both India and Sri Lanka vigorously oppose any relaxation of the law against the LTTE. Indeed, a Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) submission to the appeal hearing indicated British diplomacy would be weakened if the LTTE were to be legalised. Here we see some of the challenges of counter-terrorism in liberal democracies—the separation of powers between the judiciary and the executive leads to potentially awkward decisions unlikely in a society lacking the checks and balances of the British system. That the UK must deal with such questions is also a measure of its success—post-colonial Britain remains a society people wish to move to, and where having done so, they may exercise their political freedoms.

Reasoned judgement, however, suggests Home Secretary Priti Patel would be unwise to give the LTTE free rein. To have people organising politically on our streets, from an organisation who as recently as 1991 and 1993 murdered the democratically elected leaders of political allies, appears unwise without any recantation of terrorism. The openness of the United Kingdom, and London’s standing as the global city par excellence, ensures that it is not just the LTTE who would wish to organise openly in the capital. We have been here before—in the years prior to the Terrorism Act, the French security services invented the sobriquet “Londonistan” to describe the city which hosted so many exiled terrorist supporters. The LTTE’s threat is regional, and they lack the global ambitions of the jihadists.

But it is to be hoped for our sakes, and our relations with India and Sri Lanka, that the legal process launched by the TGTE is ultimately unsuccessful.

Dr Paul Stott is a writer and commentator based in the UK. He tweets @MrPaulStott
chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 32449
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

IndraD wrote:One thing i want to understand is why some sikhs dislike BJP when op bluestar & anti sikh riots were done by congoons?
for that we need to understand why the BJP failed to grow in punjab and the determined conspiracy of local sikh/akali/SGPC politics to keep it down.

maybe some local maestro could weigh in and enlighten us.

this is also the state where both the Hindus and the sikhs frequent the gurudwaras because of long and strongly held personal beliefs.
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5491
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Cyrano »

Photographs of the late LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran may still occasionally be spotted behind the counter of corner shops owned by Tamil migrants
You can occasionally find these in Paris as well, around Gare du Nord area, where there are lots of Sri Lankan & Indian Tamil folks running grocery shops & restaurants including the famous Saravanabhavan. They organise a very colourful Ganesh procession, and kavadi festivals etc. Prabhakaran posters used to be a lot more prevalent some years ago, there used to be donation boxes here and there, but its nearly gone now. New generations are no longer so attached.
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5491
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Cyrano »

chetak wrote:
IndraD wrote:One thing i want to understand is why some sikhs dislike BJP when op bluestar & anti sikh riots were done by congoons?
for that we need to understand why the BJP failed to grow in punjab and the determined conspiracy of local sikh/akali/SGPC politics to keep it down.

maybe some local maestro could weigh in and enlighten us.

this is also the state where both the Hindus and the sikhs frequent the gurudwaras because of long and strongly held personal beliefs.
Chetak ji, watch this for some background context on how a wedge has been driven between Hindus & Sikhs who rose from Hindus to protect Hindu Dharma:
Ambar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3173
Joined: 12 Jun 2010 09:56
Location: Weak meek unkil Sam!

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ambar »

IndraD wrote:One thing i want to understand is why some sikhs dislike BJP when op bluestar & anti sikh riots were done by congoons?
We can thank Akali Dal for that. How they managed to brainwash sikhs into believing Punjab is somehow inseparable with sikhism, and how the khalistan demand only applies to Indian side of Punjab is something no one seems to question. The dislike for BJP is just a manifestation of the dislike for Hindus, for 45+ years now sikhs have been led to believe Hindus are their greatest enemies, great irony considering Hindu families irrespective of caste/creed gave a son to the formation of khalsa. The fountainheads of khalistani movement continues to be the west, especially UK and Canada where even 2nd or 3rd generation sikhs born and brought up in the west suffer from an identify crisis. The cheap drug of fighting for a "glorious motherland" in their imaginary war against the demonic state of "Hindu India" is what seems to unite them. The hypocrisy is that despite the Bluestar debacle and decade long insurgency, INC won a whooping 80+ seats in the PJ assembly elections in 1992 , and somehow it was all BJPs fault which did not even have a party office in much of Punjab in the 80s !
Srutayus
BRFite
Posts: 178
Joined: 29 Aug 2016 05:53

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Srutayus »

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm ... ?_amp=true
More on the above from the mid-80s, during the height of Khalistani terrorism and when the Western media was a tad bit more objective than today.
chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 32449
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Cyrano wrote:
Photographs of the late LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran may still occasionally be spotted behind the counter of corner shops owned by Tamil migrants
You can occasionally find these in Paris as well, around Gare du Nord area, where there are lots of Sri Lankan & Indian Tamil folks running grocery shops & restaurants including the famous Saravanabhavan. They organise a very colourful Ganesh procession, and kavadi festivals etc. Prabhakaran posters used to be a lot more prevalent some years ago, there used to be donation boxes here and there, but its nearly gone now. New generations are no longer so attached.
Yes indeed.

Many long years ago, I still vividly remember being hounded by these fellows in europe until I learned the hard way to avoid some people and some areas as well.
vimal
BRFite
Posts: 1909
Joined: 27 Jul 2017 10:32

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by vimal »

Ambar wrote:
IndraD wrote:One thing i want to understand is why some sikhs dislike BJP when op bluestar & anti sikh riots were done by congoons?
We can thank Akali Dal for that. How they managed to brainwash sikhs into believing Punjab is somehow inseparable with sikhism, and how the khalistan demand only applies to Indian side of Punjab is something no one seems to question. ...
^^ The Sikh/Hindu identity split goes back even before that and was started by the British almost 150 years ago.

First, there was no religion/identity called Hindu or Sikh as we call it today. It was a federation of various panths (sect/cult) each of whom identified themselves as part of the larger Sanatan Vedantic family. So Nath, Khalsas, Nihangs, Udassis, Nirmals all were panths of the larger Sanatani tradition. UP CM Yogi Aditya-nath belongs to the Nath sect which has vowed to protect Dharma. Even as late as 1900s most of the what we called as Sikhs today identified themselves as Hindus which British found politically risky.

Then very systematically, Brits started the policy of divide and rule causing the seed of confusion and identity politics which persists to this day. This gave rise to the Akali movement that led to puritanical purging, and led to the political control of Sikh religious places and practices in the hands of Khalsas and expelling of Udasis and other sects. As is common during any puritanical purge the puritans always find a way to accuse the other party of being morally corrupt and indulging in licentious acts. Other panths Nirmala and udassi still follow the original Vedic and Hindu practices and even have idols in their mandirs. Hari Mandir (Golden Temple) the holiest of Sikh shrines originally had Vishnu idols for worship. These were removed by Akalis in the 20th century and made more Khalis (pure) per their interpretation.

Harsimrat Kaur Badal's family has a very dark role to play in this whole sordid saga.
Srutayus
BRFite
Posts: 178
Joined: 29 Aug 2016 05:53

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Srutayus »

^^ The Sikh/Hindu identity split goes back even before that and was started by the British almost 150 years ago.

First, there was no religion/identity called Hindu or Sikh as we call it today. It was a federation of various panths (sect/cult) each of whom identified themselves as part of the larger Sanatan Vedantic family. So Nath, Khalsas, Nihangs, Udassis, Nirmals all were panths of the larger Sanatani tradition. UP CM Yogi Aditya-nath belongs to the Nath sect which has vowed to protect Dharma. Even as late as 1900s most of the what we called as Sikhs today identified themselves as Hindus which British found politically risky.

Then very systematically, Brits started the policy of divide and rule causing the seed of confusion and identity politics which persists to this day. This gave rise to the Akali movement that led to puritanical purging, and led to the political control of Sikh religious places and practices in the hands of Khalsas and expelling of Udasis and other sects. As is common during any puritanical purge the puritans always find a way to accuse the other party of being morally corrupt and indulging in licentious acts. Other panths Nirmala and udassi still follow the original Vedic and Hindu practices and even have idols in their mandirs. Hari Mandir (Golden Temple) the holiest of Sikh shrines originally had Vishnu idols for worship. These were removed by Akalis in the 20th century and made more Khalis (pure) per their interpretation.

Harsimrat Kaur Badal's family has a very dark role to play in this whole sordid saga.
A key way this was reinforced was in the regimentation and recruitment into the Indian army which was explicitly designed to accentuate differences between regions and sects as a result of 1857. Unfortunately we retain this system.
ManSingh
BRFite
Posts: 312
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 17:30

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ManSingh »

IndraD wrote:One thing i want to understand is why some sikhs dislike BJP when op bluestar & anti sikh riots were done by congoons?
Let me try answering this one and a few other questions. Please note I am answering it to the best of my knowledge and not trolling/ flame baiting etc.
Don't get me banned.
Warning: It may be a tough read for some.

1) Why do Sikhs in Punjab dislike BJP?
- It is not a dislike for BJP as such. It is more a dislike of Modi ji and the reason is association with RSS. During the difficult years of 80's and 90's when Hindu population of Punjab was under pressure, RSS tried to arm/fight back separatism in Punjab. With RSS being extremely vocal in it's patriotism and as is the case under such circumstances, this usually involves tactics outside of what would be normal course of governance. The RSS role remains an institutional memory. I can not find the links anymore but post op blue star, there were search and seizure operations conducted by the Indian army in several temples along with gurudwaras( other than Golden Temple ). By the way, there was no such hatred towards Vajpayee ji. Also the persistent messaging around Godhra remains an issue which has not been properly countered by BJP even after all these years.
- There is nothing much to like about the BJP in Punjab either. Absolutely zero ground level leadership/communication with any stakeholders.
- Modi ji should not put himself as the face of every policy/law enacted in India. If I remember correctly, it was Modi ji during his "Mann Ki Baat" who tried to convince on the positives of the new farm bills.
- BJP's association with Akali Dal also plays negatively.

2) Role of the congress/AAP in this agitation:
While Congress/AAP would not hesitate to haul the country over coals if it means getting rid of Modi ji, they are followers and not the leaders of the current discourse. Punjab has historically had a Naxal/communist/red core which was quite prevalent in the 70's. I have had family members who were dedicated communists. Many farm organizations like BKU - ekta ugrahan etc are soft core commie style institutions. There are in house urban naxals as well. Outsiders like AAP/JNU types add to the numbers but they are not required to start a protest in Punjab. One of the reasons why religion was pushed to the forefront in Punjab was to counter the left base. Of course that in itself turned into another monster but let's leave that topic out.
By the way, Captain understands that the current situation may spiral out of control. He has asked the leaders of the protest to accept Modi ji's negotiation offer.

3) How did the current protest grow big?
There is a genuine concern/apprehension of the new farm laws as I had mentioned a few weeks ago. The strength of some leftist farm institutions along with the dislike of new farm laws and the lack of a communication channel has snow-balled into what we currently have. Akali Dal is mostly discredited due to Badals, Congress leadership initially encouraged the protests, AAP is not as popular as it thinks in Punjab. BJP lacks a base. It is the coming together of several circumstances to create a perfect storm.

4) Role of foreign diaspora, Akali Dal?
- As several posters before me have pointed out, most second generation Sikhs have no understanding of Indian politics. They believe what is fed to them and then try to educate others on FB/Instagram university. This will not change any time soon.
- The competitive hate speech in foreign Sikh leaders does translate into a few votes. So this is not going to end any time soon either.
- The best way to counter such messaging is to either ignore or throw the rule book. No Indian visa if the integrity of India has been questioned at any time in the past. Also the fuel for such messaging comes from circumstances within India. So it would be good to have this sorted out too.
- Akali Dal initially supported these bills. But as the discourse was negative in Punjab, they back pedaled quite a bit.

5) Way forward:
I am not too sure. In my opinion it is best to live to fight another day. Punjab's agrarian problem is not of BJP's making. There is nothing that can solve farmer suicides/drug abuse issues if the average size of land holding is less than 5 acres. BJP can't create more land to increase farm income(s). Punjab as it is will turn barren in under two generations from now. It is important to get the messaging right followed by increasing the grass roots support of BJP in Punjab. Farm laws can be tackled in stages. Right now subsidized electricity and unlimited ground water withdrawal rights have created a situation that will not end well under any scenario.
ManSingh
BRFite
Posts: 312
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 17:30

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ManSingh »

vimal wrote:
Ambar wrote:
We can thank Akali Dal for that. How they managed to brainwash sikhs into believing Punjab is somehow inseparable with sikhism, and how the khalistan demand only applies to Indian side of Punjab is something no one seems to question. ...
^^ The Sikh/Hindu identity split goes back even before that and was started by the British almost 150 years ago.

First, there was no religion/identity called Hindu or Sikh as we call it today. It was a federation of various panths (sect/cult) each of whom identified themselves as part of the larger Sanatan Vedantic family. So Nath, Khalsas, Nihangs, Udassis, Nirmals all were panths of the larger Sanatani tradition. UP CM Yogi Aditya-nath belongs to the Nath sect which has vowed to protect Dharma. Even as late as 1900s most of the what we called as Sikhs today identified themselves as Hindus which British found politically risky.

Then very systematically, Brits started the policy of divide and rule causing the seed of confusion and identity politics which persists to this day. This gave rise to the Akali movement that led to puritanical purging, and led to the political control of Sikh religious places and practices in the hands of Khalsas and expelling of Udasis and other sects. As is common during any puritanical purge the puritans always find a way to accuse the other party of being morally corrupt and indulging in licentious acts. Other panths Nirmala and udassi still follow the original Vedic and Hindu practices and even have idols in their mandirs. Hari Mandir (Golden Temple) the holiest of Sikh shrines originally had Vishnu idols for worship. These were removed by Akalis in the 20th century and made more Khalis (pure) per their interpretation.

Harsimrat Kaur Badal's family has a very dark role to play in this whole sordid saga.
It is best not to conflate economic ( farm bills ) issues with political ones ( Khalistan, Sikh separatism etc. ). This is a self-goal and does not bode well. Yes, there are Khalistan supporters in Punjab and they will try to exploit the current situation. Best is to not to offer them space or attention.
ManSingh
BRFite
Posts: 312
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 17:30

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ManSingh »

By the way for those interested, it is a tragic coincidence that this week Sikh regiment officially took over as the Guard Regiment in New Delhi. They will be responsible for presidential guard and guarding India gate.

Last time this happened was in the 60's. :cry:
RajeevK
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 100
Joined: 27 May 2009 21:18

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by RajeevK »

ManSingh wrote: It is more a dislike of Modi ji and the reason is association with RSS. During the difficult years of 80's and 90's when Hindu population of Punjab was under pressure, RSS tried to arm/fight back separatism in Punjab.
If we go by this logic, Congress should have been wiped out by now from Punjab. But they are in power.
Ambar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3173
Joined: 12 Jun 2010 09:56
Location: Weak meek unkil Sam!

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ambar »

Forget about getting wiped out, Congress infact thrived during the peak of Punjab insurgency !

Mansinghji, thanks for the detailed response. While with the CAA i could at some level understand the apprehension of some given the complexity of constitutional laws, i am not sure what more the government could have done about the farm bill. They took out full page ads in news papers, gave interviews to journalists, took radio ads and yet we are here. Ofcourse, this protest is not organic, atleast not the mob which has now blocked Delhi, if it was then you wouldn't have seen the same crowd which was tripping over each other in Hathras UP a month ago or hear slogans such as "naare-e-taqbeer..".

The fundamental issue the farmers from Punjab have with the farm bill seems to be the MSP or lack of it in the bill. The government has answered this question innumerous time that the issue of MSP does not arise because it has nothing to do with what the farm bill intends to do. The farm bill just opens an additional avenue for the farmers to sell which already happens unofficially everywhere. Secondly, MSP in itself has never been a part of any law, not now and not in the past. Making MSP a law is dangerous because you are constantly fighting the fundamentals of the market, hence it was always within administrative framework but never implemented as a law. To add, the government has clearly mentioned there is nothing that stops farmers from selling their produce to the mandis where MSP is still in play, 90% of the produce in PJ and HR is purchased by the Govt.Of India so there should never be a concern about not getting the support price in the first place. And for those who claim poor farmers will be taken advantage of by greedy corporates, there is nothing stopping them from selling it to the mandis, the mandis will remain where APMC exists. Also, nothing stops farmers from creating co-ops to bargain higher prices from the purchasers outside of the mandi system, they already do this pretty widely without formal co-ops.

Unless i missing something obvious, the manufactured outrage that farmers will lose their farms to corporates sounds as ridiculous as the mischief during CAA to scare muslims that legal Indian citizens will be stripped off their citizenship and sent to camps ! Its a dangerous game and i expect some difficult days for Delhi in the days to come. If the government somehow manages to placate the real farmers, then the good % of rental farmers and naare-e-taqbeer crowd will continue to chokehold the city.
m_saini
BRFite
Posts: 768
Joined: 23 May 2020 20:25

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by m_saini »

RajeevK wrote: If we go by this logic, Congress should have been wiped out by now from Punjab. But they are in power.
They probably would've but very slyly, they made maunmohan singh the pm for 10 years. Have met plenty of khalistanis and radical sikhs who are very proud of the fact that a sikh "ruled" over the dirty yindus for such a long time. It goes a long way in placating hostile feelings.
chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 32449
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

punjab is neither the largest producer of either rice or wheat, or indeed of many other crops.

The excessively pampered farmers of punjab form a small part of the larger farming community. They simply cannot presume to dictate the content of farm laws taking the unilaterally punjab view.

they are an extremely pampered lot who have got for themselves a large list of freebies and political parties seem very vary of them.

amarinder's slyness, innate arrogance and shrill insistence on what the center should/should not do is quite jarring and clearly has been on display in many tv interviews. the joker still seems to have maharaja like antiquated feudal thinking that benefits only "my farmers" in a very proprietorial and zamindar like construct.

the punjab "farmers" are mere political catspaws, fronting for vested interest groups and the khalistanis are getting a free ride as intended.

what about the rest of the farmers in India who very clearly are not in the "my farmers" category, are they condemned to remain in the "bhad me jaye" group. Do they not count for anything.

It's indeed telling that farmers in other states have not joined in

BTW, the mandis in punjab take away more than 8.5% in commissions in total. This is deducted from the so called MSP "given" to the "my farmers". This is apart from what the ever greedy commission agents can additionally grab for themselves by ripping off the "my farmers" under various pretexts like excessive moisture content, contamination and what not.
hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5175
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by hanumadu »

ManSingh wrote: It is more a dislike of Modi ji and the reason is association with RSS. During the difficult years of 80's and 90's when Hindu population of Punjab was under pressure, RSS tried to arm/fight back separatism in Punjab.
What else are RSS/Hindus supposed to do? Surely, no body would just sit and wait for death to come to them. It was the obvious thing to do and should be understandable given the circumstances.
ManSingh
BRFite
Posts: 312
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 17:30

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ManSingh »

hanumadu wrote:
ManSingh wrote: It is more a dislike of Modi ji and the reason is association with RSS. During the difficult years of 80's and 90's when Hindu population of Punjab was under pressure, RSS tried to arm/fight back separatism in Punjab.
What else are RSS/Hindus supposed to do? Surely, no body would just sit and wait for death to come to them. It was the obvious thing to do and should be understandable given the circumstances.
Nothing wrong with what the RSS did. A better approach would be to ensure that state ( GOI ) never in the future abdicates or looses control of law and order to any institution other than itself.
vimal
BRFite
Posts: 1909
Joined: 27 Jul 2017 10:32

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by vimal »

Another good video on Amarinder Singh and his traitor family.

FUTURE OF SIKHS | Boot Licking Amarinder Singh & Family

sanjaykumar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6118
Joined: 16 Oct 2005 05:51

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by sanjaykumar »

^^Yeah, I’ve noticed that. Radical sikhs can be genuinely proud of the fact that a Sikh was deemed worthy to rule India. I am not sure what the reasoning is. He is certainly not seen as a traitor to the panth.
Kashi
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3671
Joined: 06 May 2011 13:53

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Kashi »

m_saini wrote:They probably would've but very slyly, they made maunmohan singh the pm for 10 years. Have met plenty of khalistanis and radical sikhs who are very proud of the fact that a sikh "ruled" over the dirty yindus for such a long time. It goes a long way in placating hostile feelings.
Manmohan singh became the PM in 2004. INC won the Punjab elections in 1992 and then again in 2002. I wonder what hostile feelings were placated in 1992 and 2002.
m_saini
BRFite
Posts: 768
Joined: 23 May 2020 20:25

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by m_saini »

Kashi wrote:
Manmohan singh became the PM in 2004. INC won the Punjab elections in 1992 and then again in 2002. I wonder what hostile feelings were placated in 1992 and 2002.
In 1992, the voter turnout was a mere 25%, the radical sikhs and their supporters simply never bothered to vote. There was *zero* hostile feelings even present at the booths. :mrgreen:

For 2002, here's a little excerpt to help understand things better:
"Events like Operation Bluestar and the Delhi riots had no doubt alienated the Sikhs from the Congress party but the actions of Akalis, including the Barnala governemnt, were no less antagonising as was clearly revealed after the 1989 Parliamentary polls. Likewise, the behaviour of the elected hardliners (in 1989) also caused estrangement as a result of which a large number of Sikh voters turned away from such elements. Most recently, some veteran Akalis even accused Prakash Singh Badal of violating the "Hukumnama" and making a mockery of Sikh religious institutions during his five years rule from 1997 to 2002. The matter of appointment and removal of Akal Takht jathedars and SGPC presidents during the Akali regime considerably lowered Badal's image among the Sikh voters. Tohra said "What the Congress did in Punjab during the past 30-40 years was done by the SAD-BJP government in the past five years". Similarly, the Punjab Congress chief and now CM, AMarinder Singh, accused Badal of honouring those who carried out "Operation Black Thunder" when Barnala was chief mininster. "

Taken from Punjab Assembly Elections: Sharply Polarised Electorate, P.S. Verma (very interesting read)

Congress on the other hand were somehow extremely capable in those days (probably because no pappu :mrgreen:) . Even during early 1990s, through Beant Singh, they had most of their support back and 'placated the hostile feelings' so to say.
nvishal
BRFite
Posts: 992
Joined: 14 Aug 2010 18:03

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by nvishal »

IndraD wrote:One thing i want to understand is why some sikhs dislike BJP when op bluestar & anti sikh riots were done by congoons?
Sikhs don't actually hate the BJP.

The Sikhs(just like their Punjabi counterparts in pak), have ambitions over all of India. They view themselves as the rightful inheritors to the throne to rule India.

Their immediate competition in their quest to India isn't the muslims in pak Punjab. Rather, it is the Hindu castes that were once part of the Hindu kingdoms and which now dominate the Hindutva cause which have relations with the sangh and BJP.

They are divided in their strategy. One side thinks that the Hindu castes are too big to be dominated and thus they outright demand for "khalistan". Another side thinks that khalistan is watered down(like "baki"-stan) and so sticking with India will give legitimacy to their future generations(unlike the mamluks castes) who will carry the cause.

The Punjabi castes are difficult to administer. Remember that the Hindu Kings from pune(Marathi castes) who evicted the Arab armies from Punjab had a tough time administering the region. Fed up, they eventually gifted the region to afghan warlords. Common hindus unfamiliar with India's history and castes will naturally wonder, "why would they do that?" and "no, that sounds like a made up story"
sanjayc
BRFite
Posts: 1099
Joined: 22 Aug 2016 21:40

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by sanjayc »

Strange how every religious minority -- Muslims, Christians, Sikhs -- want to claim the throne of India for themselves, as if the Hindus -- the 80 percent majority for whom India is the homeland -- are immaterial and of no consequence in the country. These people are delusional. It is like the neighboorhood dhobi having delusions of taking over the entire city as its rightful emperor.

But nature abhors a vacuum. If Hindus don't lay claim to the throne of India and have no problem in voting for rabid anti-Hindus to rule over them, then it is natural for other people to make a move for the throne. It is like a village idiot sitting on a lot of ancestral property, and other villagers moving in to occupy.
Dileep
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5884
Joined: 04 Apr 2005 08:17
Location: Dera Mahab Ali धरा महाबलिस्याः درا مهاب الي

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Dileep »

Time to bring in UCC or NRC and take the wind out of the the Farmers agitation sails!
M_Joshi
BRFite
Posts: 221
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 00:06

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by M_Joshi »

I've been seeing these "farmer protesters" for the last few months around Chandigarh. Most of those I saw in previous local protests were young guys affiliated to college parties coming in cars ranging from 10 lakhs to 1 cr+. Barely saw any farmers. People who are in Punjab must know that it is impossible to be a politician of any level be it cabinet minister or local councillor to not have any local mandi connection direct or in-direct. Even local BJP members are such & are fanning the protests without overt showing. Every politico in Punjab is going to be hit by this bill; generational way of living for these people has been hit & they are not going down without a fight. Local Politics in Punjab has been changed forever.
RajeevK
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 100
Joined: 27 May 2009 21:18

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by RajeevK »

nvishal wrote:
The Sikhs(just like their Punjabi counterparts in pak), have ambitions over all of India. They view themselves as the rightful inheritors to the throne to rule India.
If the goals of the Sikhs and the Punjabi counterparts across the border are one and same, why don't they come together and form their own super country. They can then have their own army, air force and navy; which can then be used to conquer India. Would not that be align perfectly with caste theory (that has been peddled by social scientists)? At the moment they are holding 'protests' and 'dharnas'.
The itch to rule, I am sure applies to all the 'castes' in India. Everyone wants to rule. No one wants to be ruled. Is not that a universal fact?
People are coming with outlandish theories to force fit a narrative.
schinnas
BRFite
Posts: 1773
Joined: 11 Jun 2009 09:44

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by schinnas »

A humble request. Lets not create unncessary divisions amongst ourselves based on actions of a small motivated minority and opinions of a few on this forum. Requesting mods to step in.

Every state has such a fault line and it is very minor in terms of total percentage of population. In Punjab Pakistan has been using drug trade and other means to fuel the fire.
Kashi
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3671
Joined: 06 May 2011 13:53

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Kashi »

RajeevK wrote:People are coming with outlandish theories to force fit a narrative.
Nail. on. the Head.

The amount of knots and twists being made to justify certain viewpoints and outcomes would put a jalebi to shame.
nvishal
BRFite
Posts: 992
Joined: 14 Aug 2010 18:03

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by nvishal »

RajeevK,

I wasn't making theories out of thin air. These ambitions are openly communicated by "gurus" in canada to their audiences on the many "Sikhi" channels that exist on YouTube.

They have a clear understanding of basic geopolitics. It's interesting to watch them struggle to try to explain simple concepts like "locklocked punjab" to the overwhelming khalistani audience sitting in front of them.
RajeevK wrote:If the goals of the Sikhs and the Punjabi counterparts across the border are one and same, why don't they come together and form their own super country
Because of the golden rule:

*two civilisations cannot cooperate. They cannot co-exist without conflict.

The Sikhs(and hindu punjabis) on the Indian side might understand the concept of caste but they do not yet understand the concept of a civilization. The still do not understand why Punjab was partitioned. On the contrary, the muslim punjabis on the Pakistani side have no such misunderstandings. They do not mince words when they explicitly identify themselves with the Arab civilization. This is an entirely alien concept for Punjabi's(on the Indian side) to comprehend. Similar lack exists within the hindu castes living in west Bengal.
RajeevK
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 100
Joined: 27 May 2009 21:18

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by RajeevK »

nvishal wrote:
I wasn't making theories out of thin air. These ambitions are openly communicated by "gurus" in canada to their audiences on the many "Sikhi" channels that exist on YouTube.
Even Zakir Naik/XYZ propounds interesting theories/wish lists. So we can now analyse them as well and voila now we know the cause of angst amongst a certain sections of the society.
nvishal wrote: *two civilisations cannot cooperate. They cannot co-exist without conflict.
Why not? USA/West has been cooperating with Saudi Arabia since the end of First World War.
So I am sure these two can also come together temporarily (as you have said that both have a clear understanding of 'Geopolitics') one can go East up to Myanmar border and other can go West and merge with their civilisation.


This farmer agitation is a manufactured one. The farmer having been given more options to sell their produce. So there is no point in finding a source for the agitation in caste/race/civilisation/XYZ theories from Social Sciences.
SBajwa
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5779
Joined: 10 Jan 2006 21:35
Location: Attari

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by SBajwa »

Farmers will soon get busy with Rabi crops (paddy). They have historically protested during the times when they have nothing to do. My older uncles would use this time to grow cash crops (vegetables and fruits) ., while current generation is so pampered that they cannot come out of wheat, paddy and sugarcane cycle.
SBajwa
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5779
Joined: 10 Jan 2006 21:35
Location: Attari

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by SBajwa »

The current Sikh politics is totally controlled by Jutt Sikhs. Jutt Sikhs are responsible for plight of Sikhs in Punjab. The leadership with all parties in punjab is Jutts and they cannot think beyond their political interests. Sidhu, Amarinder, AAP leadership, Badal's are all.Jutts.
darshhan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2937
Joined: 12 Dec 2008 11:52

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshhan »

SBajwa wrote:Farmers will soon get busy with Rabi crops (paddy). They have historically protested during the times when they have nothing to do. My older uncles would use this time to grow cash crops (vegetables and fruits) ., while current generation is so pampered that they cannot come out of wheat, paddy and sugarcane cycle.
Rabi is wheat. Paddy is sown during Kharif cycle.
SBajwa
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5779
Joined: 10 Jan 2006 21:35
Location: Attari

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by SBajwa »

darshhan wrote:
SBajwa wrote:Farmers will soon get busy with Rabi crops (paddy). They have historically protested during the times when they have nothing to do. My older uncles would use this time to grow cash crops (vegetables and fruits) ., while current generation is so pampered that they cannot come out of wheat, paddy and sugarcane cycle.
Rabi is wheat. Paddy is sown during Kharif cycle.
that is what I meant. Rabi (Wheat crops have been sown) now it will be harvested in April-May. They just harvested Paddy crop about 3 weeks ago., and wheat crops is currently being sown all over North India (Later in Punjab, earlier in UP). Now they will wait for some time before putting in more fertilizers, etc. and are currently totally free with no time but to protest.
IndraD
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9335
Joined: 26 Dec 2008 15:38
Location: भारत का निश्चेत गगन

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by IndraD »

ManSingh wrote:1) Why do Sikhs in Punjab dislike BJP?
- It is not a dislike for BJP as such. It is more a dislike of Modi ji and the reason is association with RSS. During the difficult years of 80's and 90's when Hindu population of Punjab was under pressure, RSS tried to arm/fight back separatism in Punjab. With RSS being extremely vocal in it's patriotism and as is the case under such circumstances, this usually involves tactics outside of what would be normal course of governance. The RSS role remains an institutional memory. I can not find the links anymore but post op blue star, there were search and seizure operations conducted by the Indian army in several temples along with gurudwaras( other than Golden Temple ). By the way, there was no such hatred towards Vajpayee ji. Also the persistent messaging around Godhra remains an issue which has not been properly countered by BJP even after all these years.
- There is nothing much to like about the BJP in Punjab either. Absolutely zero ground level leadership/communication with any stakeholders.
- Modi ji should not put himself as the face of every policy/law enacted in India. If I remember correctly, it was Modi ji during his "Mann Ki Baat" who tried to convince on the positives of the new farm bills.
- BJP's association with Akali Dal also plays negatively.
man singh ji many thanks for detailed response however this stanza has left me more confused than ever.
Moot Q is why dislike for BJP.

Your suggestions are
-lack of local leadership
-RSS (good or bad U didn't elaborate)
-Godhra
-Akali Dal
-Modi ji as mascot of schemes

on each and every account congress will score worse than BJP. So it doesn;t explain basic Q. How is it that anti sikh riots & Op blue star under IG didn;t dent congress's image but BJP with no dog in the game has image tarnished?
ManSingh
BRFite
Posts: 312
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 17:30

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ManSingh »

IndraD wrote:
man singh ji many thanks for detailed response however this stanza has left me more confused than ever.
Moot Q is why dislike for BJP.

Your suggestions are
-lack of local leadership
-RSS (good or bad U didn't elaborate)
-Godhra
-Akali Dal
-Modi ji as mascot of schemes

on each and every account congress will score worse than BJP. So it doesn;t explain basic Q. How is it that anti sikh riots & Op blue star under IG didn;t dent congress's image but BJP with no dog in the game has image tarnished?
- Lack of leadership
Yes, during the good times, BJP had outsourced itself to the Akali's in Punjab. Never built a grassroots leadership when the times were good.
-RSS (good or bad U didn't elaborate)
Bad, Having a strong enemy permits to play the victim card for hardliners.
-Godhra
NM ji is (wrongly) believed to have played a role. With the experience of sikhs in the anti-sikh riots post operation bluestar and historic Gallughara incidents, this plays negatively. NM is currently synonymous with IG in Punjab.
-Akali Dal
In the last 5 years, the Akali's could achieve the level of hatred from the populace in Punjab that congress took 20 years to achieve. There were sign boards in villages across Punjab that entry of Akali Dal party members is prohibited.
-Modi ji as mascot of schemes

It is not that congress has a very bright image in Punjab. The relatively positive image of congress in Punjab is due to Capt Amrinder Singh and to some extent Navjot Sidhu. Capt had anulled the rivers pact during MMS government. Also in the 80's he had resigned from Congress post blue star. So he has somewhat of a positive halo, though not much. Navjot of course remains a perennial favourite due to his rebellious temperament. IG, Beant Singh ( and his grandson, a congress MLA ), have a very negative image.

I would still re-iterate that the current issue is an economic one and not a political one ( as yet ). Khap panchayats and farm leaders from Rajasthan and Western U.P. have been supportive and are actively participating in current protests.
nachiket
Forum Moderator
Posts: 9127
Joined: 02 Dec 2008 10:49

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by nachiket »

ManSingh wrote: I would still re-iterate that the current issue is an economic one and not a political one ( as yet ). Khap panchayats and farm leaders from Rajasthan and Western U.P. have been supportive and are actively participating in current protests.
As far as the legitimate non-political portion of the current protesters are concerned, the issue is primarily that of misinformation, propagated by the Congress and their bootlickers in the media, that the government is attempting to do away with the MSP under the garb of these new laws, when the govt. has been at pains to point out on numerous occasions that, that is not the case. So to that extent, even the ostensibly "economic" issues are actually political since the farmers are being lied to by people who have an ulterior motive of keeping their own incomes from the mandis intact.

Also, now that the Punjab state govt. has promulgated laws to basically undo the new national laws in their state, Punjabi farmers should be the only ones not protesting right?
Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 15043
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Suraj »

ManSingh wrote:I would still re-iterate that the current issue is an economic one and not a political one ( as yet ). Khap panchayats and farm leaders from Rajasthan and Western U.P. have been supportive and are actively participating in current protests.
Is it an economic one, or an economic patronage one ? There's a significant difference between the two.

An economic one is one that due to a combination of potentially localized factors, results in Punjab's farm productivity and economic activity to be negatively effected. Economic reasons can further be natural or unnatural. For example, a natural reason is that the farm bill weakened APMCs, resulting in delays in offtake or procurement that caused losses to farmers, This could be a temporary issue. An unnatural reason is that a high artificial price basis was eliminated due to the farm bill, resulting in lower incomes . This is likely a more permanent problem unless farmers respond by diversifying into crops with higher profits.

An issue of economic patronage of course, is that the wealthy landed political class with a history of APMC driven wealth and graft, are fomenting 'farm protests' as a political exercise. As chetak posted earlier, any sudden well organized protest is a sure sign of foreign money and influence at work.

It's possible that reality is not one but a combination of all of these. But even so, are the members of this protest primarily about any one motive ?
RajeevK
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 100
Joined: 27 May 2009 21:18

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by RajeevK »

ManSingh wrote: Khap panchayats and farm leaders from Rajasthan and Western U.P. have been supportive and are actively participating in current protests.
Are you sure it is the Khap panchayats from Western UP? I thought the Khap Panchayats joining the protests are from Haryana, where Congress has some presence.
As a n aside in Western UP, mostly it is sugarcane that is grown.
Locked