Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

tandav · Post by **tandav** » 29 Nov 2020 00:25

https://theconversation-com.cdn.ampproj ... ism-150126

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 29 Nov 2020 00:48

Ultimately all deaths are due to chinese. If they knew to steal PPE, then they also knew to stop all traffic in and out of china on the same day they decided to steal PPE. That's the only discussion that matters. Else, chinese are laughing in the corner and enjoying the success.

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 29 Nov 2020 01:46

tandav wrote:https://theconversation-com.cdn.ampproj ... ism-150126

First, you should not drop an URL without hinting at its contents. I had to change my keyboard in first few lines

People in China are able to move around freely right now. Many Americans may believe that the Chinese are able to enjoy this freedom because of China’s authoritarian regime.

Second, does the Chinese people know about their top secret freedoms that this lady envisions after a long drag at the chillum? Ever since crazy Mao, Chinese people can move only as far as they can throw their bicycle. Nowadays they are using tech to enforce that freedom, due to rampant corruption by local party bosses who issue those work permits

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 29 Nov 2020 02:55

There are other hypotheses to be considered including East Asia specific lower R0. Contact tracing in South Korea may be facilitated by a lower R0 or lower rate of transmissivity even if R0 is similar.

Certainly East Asians seem to have some genetic traits in common and in distinction to non East Asian populations.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 29 Nov 2020 22:47

Serum Institute rejects charges levelled by vaccine trial participant

‘Covishield’ vaccine volunteer sues Serum Institute of India, Oxford Group over ‘adverse reaction’

Second article has more detail on symptoms the volunteer is ascribing as caused by the vaccination.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 30 Nov 2020 08:14

If any biophysics folks are here, could you please summarize the following simulations?

https://www.hpcwire.com/2020/11/25/exsc ... imulation/

In accordance with its policies, the results of the simulation are open-access. Exscalate4CoV took the unusual step of releasing partial results of the simulation in real-time at this link, and the full results are now available at the broader Exscalate4CoV results portal. For its part, Exscalate4CoV has been analyzing the results with AI and advanced analytics through SAS Viya to identify the molecules with the best docking scores.

Exscalate4CoV’s research has led to the identification (and current clinical testing) of one pharmaceutical (raloxifene), in addition to the publication of 12 peer-reviewed articles and massive datasets from tens of thousands of experiments.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 30 Nov 2020 11:33

putnanja wrote:
Rahul M wrote:Mod Warning :
My mother was diagnosed with Covid last month. She had gone out once, to the market and that was enough ! The family physician immediately put her on Azithromycin even before the positive report. Given the situation at hospitals in kolkata we decided to go for home treatment after a discussion with a very experienced govt. Hospital doctor. CT scan revealed some infection in lungs and liver. She is diabetic & needs daily insulin, so it was a pretty harrowing time for us. The Doc put her on a course of antibiotics and insisted that anti-virals can be given only in a hospital environment. Thankfully she got better without any complications.

Glad to hear your mother has recovered fully now.

About anti-virals in hospitals only, I am not sure. I was told by someone that he was prescribed Fabiflu and he was in home quarantine only. Even other family members who had it were prescribed same in Hyderabad. But they were all in their 20s an 30s, otherwise healthy folks.

I know doctors do prescribe anti-virals at home, in fact our family physician had prescribed faviflu and we had even stocked up on the drug.
But we defered to the judgement of the treating physician, of course, mother's co-morbidities might have been a factor.

=======
My heartfelt thanks to all your wishes, I am sorry that I cannot acknowledge all of you individually. In covid, mental support from friends & family mean as much as the medical treatment. Thanks again,

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 30 Nov 2020 21:19

Rahul M,

Glad to know everything is alright. The guidance from the Ministry of AYUSH, including the graphic from them that I linked earlier, is indeed proving effective. I did not know about the steam inhalation of Ajwain (Caraway) seed inhalation. It does indeed work in reducing the viral load. There is now enough data available in India to publish peer reviewed papers on Ayurvedic treatment for Covid-19. It's not a silver bullet that will prevent or cure it, but your chances of survival increase significantly.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 30 Nov 2020 21:34

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/why-off ... -bigstory/

As per RuNDTV India is under reporting Covid infections by 3.4 million. Of course, no methodology is given how they arrived at this number. At the start of the crisis, there was a joker that Burkha Dutt interviewed that claimed millions of deaths.. looks like this is part 2 of that.

If we are under reporting by such a huge amount we should have seen it reflected in death rates as well? Other countries are using antigen tests as well....

saip · Post by **saip** » 01 Dec 2020 04:24

^^ If what the author claims is true then India had 13 million cases instead of the present 9.5 million cases which would make it number one in the world. But the article is NOT claiming that the deaths are underreported which makes the mortality rate go down to 1% from the current 1.5% which would be probably lowest in the world.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 01 Dec 2020 07:42

Tanaji wrote:https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/why-off ... -bigstory/

As per RuNDTV India is under reporting Covid infections by 3.4 million. Of course, no methodology is given how they arrived at this number. At the start of the crisis, there was a joker that Burkha Dutt interviewed that claimed millions of deaths.. looks like this is part 2 of that.

If we are under reporting by such a huge amount we should have seen it reflected in death rates as well? Other countries are using antigen tests as well....

RuNDTV claims the data is from ICMR, but I haven't seen ICMR draw the same conclusion as them. An additional 3.4 million infections would translate to at least 51,00 additional deaths. This is not a trivial number and you can't hide this many deaths. What they also didn't mention is that ICMR has a specific protocol for antigen testing to ensure better accuracy and validates COVID-19 antigen test kits. Since June, the ICMR has stated specific advisory on antigen testing to improve accuracy. In fact, ICMR is suggesting to use US FDA approved Covid-19 antigen testing kits. See links below:

https://www.icmr.gov.in/pdf/covid/strat ... 062020.pdf
https://www.icmr.gov.in/pdf/covid/kits/ ... 112020.pdf

In a worst case scenario, I would say somewhere near 1.2 million infections have been missed at the most. Even in the US, at local pharmacies like CVS and Walgreens use antigen tests which are correct 65-70% of the time.

Manas · Post by **Manas** » 01 Dec 2020 10:11

Mort Walker wrote:
Tanaji wrote:https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/why-off ... -bigstory/

If we are under reporting by such a huge amount we should have seen it reflected in death rates as well? Other countries are using antigen tests as well....
In a worst case scenario, I would say somewhere near 1.2 million infections have been missed at the most. Even in the US, at local pharmacies like CVS and Walgreens use antigen tests which are correct 65-70% of the time.

Except for smaller countries that have had full lockdowns for weeks + extensive testing (Australia, NZ, Korea etc) the actual official case numbers from most large/open free countries are not reliable. Just today there is an article in the WSJ that references a CDC sero-prevelance study that highlights 2 facts.

1. Cases were prevalent in some states in the U.S. as far back as Dec 2019.
2. The CDC models estimate that the actual case numbers in the U.S. as of end of September were 53 million. I believe the official case numbers in the U.S. at that point were in the 6-7M range. So real case numbers were 10x the officially tested/reported cases. They also reference an official JAMA publication based on the CDC study. Links to both are attached.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-l ... 1606782449

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamain ... le/2773576

The median age of a person dying due to COVID as of 2 months ago was 78 years. The avg life expectancy in the U.S. is also 78 years old. Of the 260K people dead - 100K+ were in the old age nursing homes (highly vulnerable).

While there is no debating that this is a deadly virus for the 70+, old, vulnerable or younger people with co-morbidities (obesity, diabetes, immune issues, asthama etc) - for an average healthy person that is reasonably fit <60 years old this virus may be as worse as a mild to bad flu based on body chemistry.

In other words after accounting for all the variables the actual case fatality rate is 0.3-0.5% but in healthy individuals (under 60 years) without pre-existing conditions it is probably less than < 0.1%.

chola · Post by **chola** » 01 Dec 2020 11:59

Just waiting for the vaccine now in the US. Both my wife and I are working from home. Took son out of pre-school. Daughter is remote onlee. My patents have kept themselves safe and have developed new hobbies. I am glad for that.

But there will be a storm before the vaccine in the weeks and months after Thanksgiving and Christmas. Just need to hunker down and keep the family safe until the vaccine is available to the masses.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 01 Dec 2020 15:12

Queues at crematoriums in Gujrat are going up

https://indianexpress.com/article/citie ... e-7074685/

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 01 Dec 2020 20:35

https://whitecoats.com/allaboutcovid/20 ... -covid-19/
Ivermectin Nasal Spray Effective Against COVID-19

https://www.wionews.com/science/anti-pa ... udy-346727
Anti-parasitic drug successfully kills COVID-19 in 48 hours, reveals study

The study was published in the journal “Antiviral Research”. The drug in question is called “Ivermectin”, and was able to kill off the virus in less than 2 days!

Besides removing all viral RNA by 48 hours, the drug was able to significantly reduce in 24 hours.

Ivermectin is an approved anti parasitic drug known to be effective against a variety of viruses like HIV, influenza, dengue, and Zika.

However, more testing needs to be undertaken to ascertain its true usefulness in fighting COVID-19.

Even though it is considered largely safe, the scientists in Monash University in Australia intend to tiptoe around correct dosage and effects to understand its efficacy.

The researchers feel that instead of focusing on new treatments, existing treatments like this one could bring reprieve to people.

Scientists don’t know how Ivermectin kills COVID-19, but they believe that the drug dampens down host cells.

They were still wary though - claiming that the use of Ivermectin to combat coronavirus depends largely on further testing and the results then produced.

https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/1471
Ivermectin Nasal Spray for COVID19 Patients

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 01 Dec 2020 20:46

To say this virus is like a bad flu is misleading. The way this virus migrates into the respiratory system to damage lungs and post covid blood clots, after antibodies build up, is generally not heard of in most influenza.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 01 Dec 2020 21:20

vijayk wrote:https://whitecoats.com/allaboutcovid/20 ... -covid-19/
Ivermectin Nasal Spray Effective Against COVID-19

https://www.wionews.com/science/anti-pa ... udy-346727
Anti-parasitic drug successfully kills COVID-19 in 48 hours, reveals study

The study was published in the journal “Antiviral Research”. The drug in question is called “Ivermectin”, and was able to kill off the virus in less than 2 days!

Besides removing all viral RNA by 48 hours, the drug was able to significantly reduce in 24 hours.

Ivermectin is an approved anti parasitic drug known to be effective against a variety of viruses like HIV, influenza, dengue, and Zika.

However, more testing needs to be undertaken to ascertain its true usefulness in fighting COVID-19.

Even though it is considered largely safe, the scientists in Monash University in Australia intend to tiptoe around correct dosage and effects to understand its efficacy.

The researchers feel that instead of focusing on new treatments, existing treatments like this one could bring reprieve to people.

Scientists don’t know how Ivermectin kills COVID-19, but they believe that the drug dampens down host cells.

They were still wary though - claiming that the use of Ivermectin to combat coronavirus depends largely on further testing and the results then produced.
https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/1471
Ivermectin Nasal Spray for COVID19 Patients

saip · Post by **saip** » 01 Dec 2020 21:33

India's crude death rate is a little over 7 per 1000 or 29,000 per day. Why would another 500 or so deaths for the whole country cause these long lines at crematoria? I think there were lines on some days even before the COVID19 but now they happen to report it. My home town in AP with over 5 lakhs population has just one crematorium (not electric) but has four stalls ready with firewood etc. So if three or four bodies turn up at the same time there will not be any wait time.

tandav · Post by **tandav** » 02 Dec 2020 08:55

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/01/asia ... index.html

4 Chinese companies have vaccines reaching stage 3 clinical trials. They have already started shipping to other nations. Mexico, Brazil, Bangladesh, Turkey, UAE etc. No Data is available on efficacy but it appears that China has focussed on making whole inactivated / killed virus vaccine which do not need cold storage.

disha · Post by **disha** » 02 Dec 2020 09:04

saip wrote:India's crude death rate is a little over 7 per 1000 or 29,000 per day. Why would another 500 or so deaths for the whole country cause these long lines at crematoria? I think there were lines on some days even before the COVID19 but now they happen to report it. My home town in AP with over 5 lakhs population has just one crematorium (not electric) but has four stalls ready with firewood etc. So if three or four bodies turn up at the same time there will not be any wait time.

Just proves my point that the reported death is more or less accurate and the GOI is *not* fudging any numbers on deaths.

First contention was that the deaths are massively underreported.

It was speculated that if the deaths are massively underreported, then it will show up in queues at the crematorium. And one resourceful BRFite immediately pulled out a news report from Gujarat. If one reads the news, the deaths have increased some 30% (from 20 to 30) per week and it already showed up on the news report. Same would be expected of other states.

Second for your home town with half million population, there is only one crematorium and they are already prepared for the increase in death rate. But if deaths are massively underreported then your 7 per 1000 or 29,000 per day is not the statistic, it will be like 10 per 1000 or some 38000 per day and that extra 9000 persons per day will be seen.

Hence the contention that deaths are massively underreported is a lie. The statement that GOI is fudging the death numbers is also a lie. Since it is difficult to lie accurately. Like, let's fudge the number so that it looks accurate! That is not even plausible.

Therefore, GOI is reporting the death correctly with some inaccuracies in reporting that creeps in any of such complex issue.

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 02 Dec 2020 09:28

^ Therefore, if somebody claims that case counts are massively underreported, that would be a *positive* thing, since the fatality rate would be that much lower. A point which will almost certainly be missed by those "analysts."

BTW, the positivity fraction in the US, which was dropping for a week, is now rising again. Per reports, there were massive crowds thronging airports in the couple of weeks preceding Thanksgiving. Standard disclaimer holds (correlation not necessarily being causation).

France dropped testing by like 40%. The drop in case counts in France is somewhat deceptive, but not entirely so, because the positivity fraction has dropped significantly, so the drop is real. Second wave seems to be petering out in Europe.

Somewhat of a mixed bag for Europe. UK had a second wave which was slightly more severe than the first - case counts were up 5X, but so was the testing, so overall about the same. Poland never really had a first wave, it was like a minor ripple. So the second wave seemed humongous in comparison, but was about the same severity as the rest of Europe, or actually only half as severe if one goes by death counts. Ditto with Austria. Media however freaked out.

The 1918 flu (winter wave) was over by Nov. 14th. That however was fueled by a unique mix of circumstances relating to the end of WW-I, so it was pretty brutal, and as a corollary, the virus didn't survive very long (killed off its host too fast). That flu also had a third wave, IIRC.

disha · Post by **disha** » 02 Dec 2020 12:46

^Take a look at the charts from CA: https://www.sfchronicle.com/projects/coronavirus-map/

Case counts are soaring. The first peak was in July 3rd week and the daily case counts were ~12.5k per day and the CFR was ~200 per day. Of course there is lag between case reported and the fatality count. In the second wave, the case counts are now approaching ~20k per day but the fatality is around ~100 per day.

Here is the blurb on the fatality rates:

Despite the surging case counts and hospitalizations, virus-related deaths in the Bay Area continued to decline. The Bay Area reported 188 deaths in November, down from 258 in October and a high of 396 in September.

And here is the data from NY: https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus-ny/

The test counts in April were ~25k daily with positivity around ~10k. And in around ~150k daily tests currently the positivity is around ~7.5k. So yes, on a crude positivity count, NY appears to have a second wave (the graph sure looks like that) but when compared against the number of tests, the wave is a ripple when seen against the first wave. Check the chart in the hospitalizations and the number in ICUs against the fatalities.

Hence the second wave is actually being a ripple at least in two major coastal states in US.

Couple of notes. Both of the states implemented initial lockdown to flatten the curve. The curve was actually crushed by September. And the goal for the lock down was to increase the medical care facilities. That is increase capacity on beds, PPE, ventilators and what not. What did both of the states do in those 9 months since March? This is a genuine question that needs to be answered.

DavidD · Post by **DavidD** » 02 Dec 2020 13:20

We certainly have more PPEs here in CA. That, at least for now, is not an issue. Given the less aggressive use of ventilators, that's also not an issue. As for beds, that was never really an issue. You can make beds pretty easily, same with making PPEs and ventilators, but you can't surge medical staff the same way. That's the limiting issue for the worst hotspots. Just last week I had trouble discharging a patient to a local VA because they just sent 80+ nurses to Wisconsin.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 02 Dec 2020 14:13

chola wrote:Just waiting for the vaccine now in the US. Both my wife and I are working from home. Took son out of pre-school. Daughter is remote onlee. My patents have kept themselves safe and have developed new hobbies. I am glad for that.

But there will be a storm before the vaccine in the weeks and months after Thanksgiving and Christmas. Just need to hunker down and keep the family safe until the vaccine is available to the masses.

Will have to wait a bit longer. By my count, Pfizer has plans to ship 25 Million doses by year-end, and Moderna around 20 million. That's enough for just around 22 million people and does not even fully cover healthcare workers and seniors residing in nursing homes. Assuming some inefficiencies in actually vaccinating people (as opposed to having doses in hand) we are probably going to have to wait till the spring or possibly later to get vaccinated.

Meanwhile, the UK has just approved the Pfizer vaccine -

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk- ... e-12148786

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 03 Dec 2020 03:49

FDA is meeting at the end of next week on EUA to Pfizer. They are dragging feet to show up President Trump as per some reports.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 03 Dec 2020 05:52

EUA has very little material impact on who gets vaccinated and how fast. They are still limited by the production, supply chain, and the last mile resources required to administer the dose. The vaccines are moving and Pfizer, which is doing its own distribution, is lining it up so that it can begin being administered within a day or so after securing the required authorization. So 2 days here or a week there isn't going to have any impact. Roughly 45 million doses should be available in the US by end of the year assuming both Pfizer and Moderna are approved (which looks highly likely). EUA is not having any impact on either production rate or the supply chain gearing up for production and the logistical operations moving doses where they need to be moved to for delivery.

The aspirational goal released by the government task force (warp speed) seem to be targeting 100 Million vaccinated individuals by end of February 2021. That's promising and may just cover 100% of essential workers, healthcare workers, and a large chunk of the at-risk demographics. If you don't fall into that bucket then late spring or early summer is probably a safe bet (in the US). Whether EUA happens tomorrow or a week from now isn't going to impact that. When AstraZeneca and others complete their US trials additional vaccines can be approved as well, and that can move all these things to the left and allow for accelerated vaccination. I'm skeptical though that anywhere more than 55-60% of the US can get vaccinated. I just don't see that level of compliance though happy to be proven wrong.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 03 Dec 2020 06:14

The problem is what if EUA is not granted? How did the UK, whose NHS is a lot more bureaucratic, was able to approve Pfizers vaccine but not the US where it was developed? These are valid questions to ask. What exactly is the delay? We know that petiotin for EUA was filed at least a week back.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 03 Dec 2020 06:35

Vayutuvan wrote:The problem is what if EUA is not granted?

Right and I assume that would only be a problem if it isn't granted. It hasn't been denied and there are no indications anywhere suggesting that it looks likely to be denied. In fact, all signs point to it being approved in the coming days and everything else around moving it and setting up the last mile administering process has also been happening behind the scenes.

How did the UK, whose NHS is a lot more bureaucratic, was able to approve Pfizers vaccine but not the US where it was developed?

Someone has to do it first right? And being 2 days, 7 days, or 10 days behind doesn't point to any conspiracy theories. That can easily be explained by different processes, and perhaps different submission and other requirements which take a few days longer. And it isn't just a US vaccine. It is as much German as it is US though that is besides the point and immaterial since the regulators are looking at the trials and accompanying data submitted to them. Again, EUA window (whether it is Dec 1 or Dec 10) this has absolutely no material impact on either the production of this vaccine, or its distribution. EUA to first-dose-administered is likely going to take 24-36 hours given that stocks of this vaccine have been pre-positioned and are ready to go. Those wheels are turning and have been for a while. In fact those wheels are turning even for the AstraZenica vaccine which only resumed its Phase III trials last month (after a pause) and one which isn't likely to receive EUA for quite a while still (hasn't even applied yet). Even there, they've pumped $1.2 Billion into that particular vaccine so the US 'bureaucratic machinery" has a stake in its success as well just like that of Moderna and even Pfizer.

These are valid questions to ask. What exactly is the delay?

Yes they are valid. But a lack of information doesn't automatically mean a conspiracy. I am sure when they do issue the EUA they will open themselves to be asked those questions. Likewise, the FDA is always open to be dragged in front of Congress and asked those questions. We can burn millions on Congressional hearings to see how the UK was a week ahead in authorizing use though that will obviously be completely irrelevant to helping mitigate the rapid spread of the pandemic in the US. But again, just because they may be 5 days to a week behind the UK, and ahead of many others, doesn't mean that they purposefully wanted to have it happen that way. And as I wrote earlier, if you are an interested party (like a first responder, healthcare worker, senior living in a nursing home etc) who is in-line to get the first 20 or so million doses, this has literally zero impact on your ability to get the vaccine. Other forces are likely to influense when you get that dose more than a 2 day or a week delay (which isn't even a delay since they never claimed that they'll grant it by so and so date) in EUA from the FDA (which has provided a timeline on when it is likely to decide).

I am willing to bet that when this chapter closes in the US, the problem isn't going to be weather the FDA could have given EUA a week ahead but likely how we never managed to vaccinate a large chunk of the population either due to mismanagement at the state level or due to a lack of compliance by individuals who didn't want it or didn't bother to continue through with vaccination after an initial dose.

DavidD · Post by **DavidD** » 03 Dec 2020 11:22

Vayutuvan wrote:The problem is what if EUA is not granted? How did the UK, whose NHS is a lot more bureaucratic, was able to approve Pfizers vaccine but not the US where it was developed? These are valid questions to ask. What exactly is the delay? We know that petiotin for EUA was filed at least a week back.

Pfizer is a multinational, and this particular vaccine was developed in Germany. A few days is not gonna make a difference, it'll be approved. My hospital will start administering the Pfizer vaccine on Dec 15th.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 03 Dec 2020 21:10

Yeah of all the things going on, EUA of vaccines that have demonstrated efficacy and safety, is probably the least of the worries. I'm actually more concerned about how many vaccinations actually end up occurring relative to the number of doses made available. There are so many variables at play, and state to state variance to account for, not to mention that beyond the high risk groups and healthcare workers there may low compliance and willingness to get the shot and this could be amplified by social media and rumors that will no doubt take off when folks begin reporting mild side effects that may or may not even be related to the vaccination. Even having the vaccine available mostly free won't solve the problem of people just not wanting to get it.

Obama, Bush, Clinton Say They're Willing To Get Coronavirus Vaccine On Camera

I think this is a good move. I think influential figures across the spectrum of society should follow suit.

saip · Post by **saip** » 03 Dec 2020 22:13

Till now the decision about taking the vaccine was not important as it was felt it is too far away. Now that it is here time has come to make the decision - to take it or not to take it. Yesterday my wife's hospital had a staff meeting and this was discussed. She does not know which vaccine she will be getting. But both Moderna and Pfyzer are mRNA vaccines and it is probably never tried in humans (except in trials) in large scale. While it is true they claim there are no 'serious' side effects but we do not have info for sub groups like people with comorbities and age related. She is wondering if he should wait for the Oxford which is more of a 'traditional' vaccine. She still has couple of weeks to make the decision.

disha · Post by **disha** » 03 Dec 2020 22:32

DavidD wrote:We certainly have more PPEs here in CA. That, at least for now, is not an issue. Given the less aggressive use of ventilators, that's also not an issue. As for beds, that was never really an issue. You can make beds pretty easily, same with making PPEs and ventilators, but you can't surge medical staff the same way. That's the limiting issue for the worst hotspots. Just last week I had trouble discharging a patient to a local VA because they just sent 80+ nurses to Wisconsin.

Rhetorically, nine (9) months is enough to produce a baby.

In 9 months, thousands of workers who are currently jobless can be trained to handle basic patient care. For example, several hundred can be trained to become phlebotomists. All one requires is a high school degree and training and certification that can be done inside of 6 weeks. Things can be done if there is a will and 9 months is more than enough to produce at least a 100k workforce that is trained in basic patient care and handling. That is a tremendous amount of health care workforce handling patient care (like providing them pills or taking their pulses or drawing blood for tests) etc.

Yes, we can surge, medical staff! Even doctors. All the oncologists, nephrologists, plastic surgeons, dermatologists etc. can be trained to handle patients who are not very sick and the caseload on doctors handling serious cases can be divided.

I am just concerned that instead of thinking out of box., Governments, medical professions, etc are just taking the least resistance path and that happens to be lockdown, lockdown, and lockdown. Sometimes to hilarious situations like stopping all people from going to beaches and enjoying the sun or setting up tents outside which is like setting up indoor into outdoor!

disha · Post by **disha** » 03 Dec 2020 22:57

brar_w wrote: ...That's enough for just around 22 million people and does not even fully cover healthcare workers and seniors residing in nursing homes. Assuming some inefficiencies in actually vaccinating people (as opposed to having doses in hand) we are probably going to have to wait till the spring or possibly later to get vaccinated...

That is where a rapid antibody test kit would have helped. If you already have antibodies, why would you need a vaccine? Frontline or not?

Also, look at data on case rates. I pick up NY and CA since they are large states on opposite ends of the coast. Both with some reliable data and high population densities and both have dense to very dense urban clusters and counties where population density is very low.

The total positives in NY so far are ~650k. And 1.2 million in CA. So between NY and CA if 2 million additional are vaccinated, and only those who have not contracted coronavirus in the past, what is the effect on transmitivity? Does it not slow down the spread?

Take a look at NY data again. The CFR in the under 19 population is 0.1%. So give vaccinations first to people over 50 and the categories of spreaders. If both CA and NY do not have data on which categories of professions or people are spreaders and super-spreaders in the last 9 months then shame on the administrators of the state!

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 04 Dec 2020 00:13

Meanwhile - WOW!!!!

A team lead by Manu Prakash developed a Low-cost, fast saliva test for COVID-19.
This is at-home COVID-19 test .. costing $5 of less, fast (<30 minutes) and accurate.

For those who many not know, Manu Prakash, at present a professor at Stanford, graduated from IIT Kanpur (BTech) and did his MS and PhD from MIT... He, of course, is quite famous for inventions likeFoldscope (I have mentioned him quite a few times in brf before - I still remember many years ago when he presented Foldoscope in one of the IIT meets).

Now since this is already in mainstream news .. allow me to post it here. (Proud moment - IITK ka tempo high hai)

Story: http://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2 ... udied.html

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 04 Dec 2020 02:00

For record, let me post the graphs, I have been posting here. Data source Johns Hopkins University and countries of my interest / family home - This is normalized cases/million..

and ...

disha · Post by **disha** » 04 Dec 2020 02:24

For those who many not know, Manu Prakash, at present a professor at Stanford, graduated from IIT Kanpur (BTech) and did his MS and PhD from MIT... He, of course, is quite famous for inventions likeFoldscope (I have mentioned him quite a few times in brf before - I still remember many years ago when he presented Foldoscope in one of the IIT meets).

^AmberG, that's great news on Covid test.

On another note, since you plug'ed in 'Foldscope', let me tell you that foldscope is a piece of crap. Yes, the idea is interesting. But in real use, it is crap and nothing but crap. Having burnt real money on it, take it as customer feedback. And it has not been that successful either. Where are the millions of kids in Africa and Asia and LatAm running around with foldscope looking at bugs and fungi?

A better idea will be to lower the price of the actual microscope! Maybe put it out as a semi knockdown kit that can be self-assembled by any 8-year-old in any country in Asia, Africa, LatAm, and Europe. Make it real! It can be used as a prized possession for years to come. Even a 2-year-old nowadays want the real deal and not some toy phones.

Taking a tangent, we desis have the propensity to drop in all these four-letter universities like IITs, Stanfords, MITs and try to dazzle the hoi polloi using some glory of the dandy institution as if that rubs in on the individual and the individual is hence the best human since homo habilis after going through the portals of this hollow'ed institutions. I had people from IITs, Stanfords, and MITs on my team, and few of them are arrogant despicable vermins. And some of them are indeed great souls. Maybe those great souls want to achieve balance with some arrogant vermins coming out of the same institutions.

So again kudos to Manu Prakash and kudos to you for bringing his news here and keeping us aware. The rest of your post digressed me into the above rant. Once you edit your post and remove the gratuitous hallowing of the institutions, I will edit mine.

saip · Post by **saip** » 04 Dec 2020 03:11

Now I am hearing that funeral homes are getting overwhelmed in the USA because of the COVID19. Hope, like everything, this too will pass.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 04 Dec 2020 07:46

disha wrote:... we desis have the propensity to drop in all these four-letter universities like IITs, Stanfords, MITs ... hollow'ed institutions.

"Institutions don't make people. People make institutions" --- anonymous

We had one Interdisciplinary Research Unit built $40 million from an alumni plus matching funding from the state of about 30 yrs. back. I didn't how famous this research center was till I came to the campus town and was looking around for a rental. Everybody would say "Oh so you will be working at this place?". When I asked my advisor why he didn't have an office in that place which is very famous, his answer was "It is a famous building with no famous people". They used to charge $2500 per head for the privilege of having an office in that building. My advisor's reasoning as that he can fund seminar attendance and getting more RAM for our Sun workstations - increase 64 MB to 128 MB.

Yayavar · Post by **Yayavar** » 04 Dec 2020 13:53

There has been news of saliva test since August.FDA approved it. It was in news in ToI as well.
example of another report
https://www.jhsph.edu/news/news-release ... study.html
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/fda-a ... r-BB184EPM

Perhaps the stanford team has some modificaiton.

chola · Post by **chola** » 04 Dec 2020 14:06

saip wrote:Now I am hearing that funeral homes are getting overwhelmed in the USA because of the COVID19. Hope, like everything, this too will pass.

Worldometer reported :

218,576 new cases and 2,918 new deaths yesterday on Dec. 3.

That's following
206,073 new cases and 2,873 new deaths
on Dec. 2.

The vaccine cannot come fast enough.