2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

[Aditya_V]

BJP got a royal drubbing in the recently concluded MLC Polls in Maharashtra, losing all but 1 of the 6 seats.

Looks like Shiv Sena Base is willing to vote with NCP and INC

[sanjayc]

^^ Hindus are willing accomplices in their own persecution

[sajo]

They even lost Nagpur and Pune, which are considered BJP bastions.

[Sonugn]

They even lost Nagpur and Pune, which are considered BJP bastions.

Combined arithmetic of MVA versus BJP

[dsreedhar]

Losing in Nagpur and Pune is of concern. I would have thought with the ShivSena antics of late, people would teach a lesson.

[Kaivalya]

And I'm 100% on board with farmers being allowed to export. But if what's being said is true, that farmers are barely making ends meet even with an artificially inflated MSP, then how will they compete in the international markets where the prices are even lower? Do also keep in mind that no gov will give free electricity either if you're going to sell to amrekis or cheenis.

With subsidy in electricity, fertilizer, seeds and MSP + Rs.6000/per year is not enough to make farming profitable. Something terribly wrong. Not to mention cost of so many agriculture and related institutes.
Also the subsidized schooling and PDS.

Sir - Reducing the wastage ( road infra, cold storage, removing middlemen, better price discovery etc.) from farmer to consumer will also make farming profitable. There is no end to giving subsidies. Maybe time to try other efficiencies ?

[OmkarC]

Looks final will be

TRS: 56
BJP: 49
MIM: 42
INC: 2

Fantastic results.

Massive erosion of TRS voter base; BJP grows 1000% +, MIM & Con parties confined to their own strongholds (MIM's "strongholds" were mostly due to congress gerrymandering constituencies), TDP wiped out.

BJP cadre are in celebration mood. TRS/MIM had used everything in their power, the give away was the night before counting, state CEC sends out a notice asking counting staff to consider any marked ballots even w/o swastika symbol as "legal" ballots. Luckily the high court quashed that order.

Also, now TRS will be forced to formally ally with MIM for the mayor seat, which can only help BJP in future.

Some other takeaways:
- The TRS-MIM link is all too tangible, and BJP local leadership's message that a vote for TRS is a vote for MIM resonated well. This I think is the biggest reason for their erosion.
- TRS also paid the price for selling people too lofty a vision but not delivering on the ground .. they were seen as not accessible, and many of their corporators didnt show up during floods. That said, there still is no popular leader with a state wide appeal than KCR and to some extent his son - KTR.
- Rohingya issue is serious and has gone into public discourse, people have started thinking how they came to own voter IDs, ration cards - and what KCR who abused fellow Telugu people from coastal districts is so eagerly bringing in these people from other countries.
- Attack on State BJP head's car the night before polls by TRS/MIM workers, KCR has already decimated congress with mass defections to wipe out opposition, now this attack on BJP leadership filled folks with disgust that TRS is all set to wipe out entire opposition.
- BJP now has a strong young brigade of local leadership - who are united and aggressively pro-Hindutva.. they do lack someone with KTR's sophistication though, which could cost them some urban votes.
- Expect a mass exodus from some good district level Congress leaders to BJP: there are some very good leaders from southern TG who can increase BJP strength.

If they can strengthen in southern TG, which can be done by roping in some congress leaders..2023 Telangana assembly will be on a knife's edge with 50% chance of BJP win.

[dsreedhar]

OmkarC that was a good overall picture and important points.
Besides other things, the recent flood issue n the crisis might have definitely boosted support to BJP.
Now that BJP gained some power they need to get more active among people, work harder and deliver.
Rohingya issue need to be worked on, keep a tab and not let go.
Bandi Sanjay has been a great find/asset, with a mass leader appeal. Raghunandan rao is good. Rakesh reddy, Girish daramoni etc are a few promising youth leaders that need to be groomed further.

[vijayk]

Looks final will be

TRS: 56
BJP: 49
MIM: 42
INC: 2

Fantastic results.

Massive erosion of TRS voter base; BJP grows 1000% +, MIM & Con parties confined to their own strongholds (MIM's "strongholds" were mostly due to congress gerrymandering constituencies), TDP wiped out.

BJP cadre are in celebration mood. TRS/MIM had used everything in their power, the give away was the night before counting, state CEC sends out a notice asking counting staff to consider any marked ballots even w/o swastika symbol as "legal" ballots. Luckily the high court quashed that order.

Also, now TRS will be forced to formally ally with MIM for the mayor seat, which can only help BJP in future.

Some other takeaways:
- The TRS-MIM link is all too tangible, and BJP local leadership's message that a vote for TRS is a vote for MIM resonated well. This I think is the biggest reason for their erosion.
- TRS also paid the price for selling people too lofty a vision but not delivering on the ground .. they were seen as not accessible, and many of their corporators didnt show up during floods. That said, there still is no popular leader with a state wide appeal than KCR and to some extent his son - KTR.
- Rohingya issue is serious and has gone into public discourse, people have started thinking how they came to own voter IDs, ration cards - and what KCR who abused fellow Telugu people from coastal districts is so eagerly bringing in these people from other countries.
- Attack on State BJP head's car the night before polls by TRS/MIM workers, KCR has already decimated congress with mass defections to wipe out opposition, now this attack on BJP leadership filled folks with disgust that TRS is all set to wipe out entire opposition.
- BJP now has a strong young brigade of local leadership - who are united and aggressively pro-Hindutva.. they do lack someone with KTR's sophistication though, which could cost them some urban votes.
- Expect a mass exodus from some good district level Congress leaders to BJP: there are some very good leaders from southern TG who can increase BJP strength.

If they can strengthen in southern TG, which can be done by roping in some congress leaders..2023 Telangana assembly will be on a knife's edge with 50% chance of BJP win.

But BJP has to use local factors also and gain confidence of Andhra voters. Tell them that AP politics is AP politics and they need to vote for improvement of Hyderabad. If BJP won in Banjara Hills/Kukatpally etc., they could have shocked TRS in more than 10 seats

[IndraD]

https://www.opindia.com/2020/12/yuvraj- ... i-comment/
https://twitter.com/KshatriyaItihas/sta ... 95552?s=20
Ex-Indian cricketer Yuvraj Singh’s father Yograj Singh joins Farmer’s protests, justifies “Indira thok di” comment, makes blasphemous hateful speech against Hindus

[Rupesh]

They even lost Nagpur and Pune, which are considered BJP bastions.

It's MLC elections for teachers and graduates constituency. So restricted voters list. Teachers may have voted to MVA to ensure their salaries get paid on time. Also a lot of schools are controlled by Congis and Ncp.

[sanjaykumar]

There is something cultural driving such asinine bombast. A peasant society stuck in a medieval era being bypassed by those with traits more attuned to the 21st century can predictably lash out in this mad flailing.

And they ask “why do they hate us?”

[Tanaji]

They even lost Nagpur and Pune, which are considered BJP bastions.

It's MLC elections for teachers and graduates constituency. So restricted voters list. Teachers may have voted to MVA to ensure their salaries get paid on time. Also a lot of schools are controlled by Congis and Ncp.

This.

The voting was for the upper house and not the lower house. Not a lot of turnout for this. That too, it was 3 teachers and two graduate seats. The constituency of each seat is spread out over large areas of the state unlike the lower house elections.

[ManSingh]

There is something cultural driving such asinine bombast. A peasant society stuck in a medieval era being bypassed by those with traits more attuned to the 21st century can predictably lash out in this mad flailing.

And they ask “why do they hate us?”

What exactly do you mean by "peasant society stuck in a medieval era"? It's up to you if you want to wallow in your hatred.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 942863.cms

Yograj Singh has never been the epitome of peace/intelligence which is why Yuvraj Singh ( and his separated mother ) stay away in Gurugram rather than Chandigarh. He literally went ballistic on a TV show a few weeks ago because he didn't like a joke( on cricket ) and threatened his co-stars and a female production manager.

[sanjaykumar]

That’s exactly my point. It is very easy to get in the gutter with gentlemen of his like.

Being civilised means minding one’s tongue much more than education or intelligence.

[IndraD]

now Punjab unrest looks like Sikh movement. One wonders if Frankenstein unleashed by Captain Amarinder can be restrained by him! While those who have seen the devastation of 80s in Punjab would be cautious there are many amongst young generation who are growing up on Khalistan propaganda coming from abroad.
And all this nautanki of we bring our food and chai in meeting with govt....then why take sarkari subsidy, bijli paani bill maafi? Saner voices from community must be there but in such a chaos they get taken over!
here is yograj singh with siddhu.

[IndraD]

https://twitter.com/vijaygajera/status/ ... 35235?s=20
https://twitter.com/vijaygajera/status/ ... 91712?s=20
thread ^

So on 21st nov 2019 a group named ‘ The Sikh network’ gave an award to Imran khan in London.
Recever was Sahibzada Jahangir, spokesman for Prime Minister of Pakistan for Trade & Investment in UK & Europe and
Actually he handles all the money as a investment given by ISI

ISI hand in fomenting trouble. Some UK labour MPs & London Mayor in bed.

[OmkarC]

But BJP has to use local factors also and gain confidence of Andhra voters. Tell them that AP politics is AP politics and they need to vote for improvement of Hyderabad. If BJP won in Banjara Hills/Kukatpally etc., they could have shocked TRS in more than 10 seats

Good point.. Many Andhra folks still hate BJP irrationally thinking about "betrayal of AP" on special status, while it was a fact that CBN who double crossed BJP willingly took the "special package" instead of "special status".

Despite Piyush Goyal exposing this hypocrisy & double crossing by TDP (https://www.newindianexpress.com/states ... 56468.html), state BJP leaders could not do a good job in convincing Andhra folks that center hasn't betrayed AP, its just CBN took a special package worth several thousands of crores in lieu of special status and then went back to a special status demand. TDP & YSRCP both have entire media under their control in Andhra and both dont have any intent of changing the narrative, very hard for BJP to get these facts through to ordinary rural folks of Andhra.

[OmkarC]

Bandi Sanjay has been a great find/asset, with a mass leader appeal. Raghunandan rao is good. Rakesh reddy, Girish daramoni etc are a few promising youth leaders that need to be groomed further.

We can chat in the southern states thread as this thread may distract folks from the ongoing Punjabi farmer topic.. but yes w/ Bandi Sanjay, Raja Singh & Aravind, BJP has a local counter for MIM.. For the educated section - all the folks you mentioned are good, but they need to be groomed (except perhaps Raghunandan Rao, who is brilliant in all debates).. further continuing to strengthen rural base in southern TG with hopefully the KomatiReddy Bros, will be good.. Just make sure that they dont take in congress troublemakers likes of Revanth & Uttam Kumar, who are corrupt & prone to infighting.

[vijayk]

I am hoping COVID vaccine (Oxford) will come out now and Govt. goes on delivering to millions and media will turn their attention to that and ignore this drama and hopefully Govt. can resolve this issue thru negotiations. Right now, they have too many cameras and want to dramas and promote their politics

[nandakumar]

But BJP has to use local factors also and gain confidence of Andhra voters. Tell them that AP politics is AP politics and they need to vote for improvement of Hyderabad. If BJP won in Banjara Hills/Kukatpally etc., they could have shocked TRS in more than 10 seats

Good point.. Many Andhra folks still hate BJP irrationally thinking about "betrayal of AP" on special status, while it was a fact that CBN who double crossed BJP willingly took the "special package" instead of "special status".

Despite Piyush Goyal exposing this hypocrisy & double crossing by TDP (https://www.newindianexpress.com/states ... 56468.html), state BJP leaders could not do a good job in convincing Andhra folks that center hasn't betrayed AP, its just CBN took a special package worth several thousands of crores in lieu of special status and then went back to a special status demand. TDP & YSRCP both have entire media under their control in Andhra and both dont have any intent of changing the narrative, very hard for BJP to get these facts through to ordinary rural folks of Andhra.

On 'special category'/'special package' let me share some perspective from a Constitutional framework. The Finance Commission, which is a body created from time to time under the express provision in the Constitution, demands that the special needs of extremely poor States (such as Bihar for example) and States who are particularly disadvantaged because of geography or historical reasons (North East) be given some consideration in the matter of devolution of Central finances to the States. Chandra Babu Naidu wanted Andhra to be declared a 'Special Category ' State. Now, this is a potentially dangerous demand. Andhra is by no means a poor State such as Bihar or particularly disadvantaged like NE States. Granting it would be triggering similar claims from other States. What is to prevent Maharashtra from demanding a similar privilege? In a country where separatist tendencies have not completely died down despite 70 years of existence as a unified nation. The Central bureaucracy was strictly opposed to the demand and to Modi's credit, he went along with it. Imagine. This was during Modi's first term and BJP was far from a fully entrenched as a political entity. It would have been so tempting for Modi to compromise with greater national interest for the sake of short term political gains. So he refused. Now, why Chandra Babu Naidu wanted this declaration is too obvious to need any elaboration.
So a compromise was reached. Instead of declaring Andhra Pradesh as a 'special category ' State, a set of projects are ab initio decided as warranting total funding by the Centre. For instance the cost of constructing a barrage across the river Godavari or even the cost of constructing the new capital city, Amravati could legitimately be identified as deserving of special assistance and be eligible to be declared as Centrally Sponsored Scheme. Now, if a project is identified as a Centrally Sponsored Scheme then the oversight and implementation will be by the Centre. This was not acceptable to Naidu. He wanted complete administrative control over award of contracts and supervision. Again the reasons are self evident. Granting it again would have set a bad precedent. So the Centre countered it by saying that in which case the State identify the project and the cost thereof in advance, so that the ultimate financial commitment for the Centre be determined in before the projects take off. This too was not acceptable to Naidu. He wanted an open ended financial commitment from the Centre. The Centre refused. So Naidu, frustrated that his blackmail had been called starting singing the Telugu pride having been hurt and walked out of NDA in a huff. The rest is history.

[vijayk]

He says Govt. procured 90+ MTons which is rotting since there is no FCI godowns.

[chetak]

The shameless political and opportunistic pussyfooting by the chicago's booth school management "professor" and notorious bootlicking pappu acolyte who is allegedly the chosen one, the new bluetooth controlled, BS-VI compliant version replacement for the old gas guzzling jalopy MMS Mk 1

Kanchan Gupta@KanchanGupta·Dec 2

6 years ago Raghuram Rajan was rooting for the same farm reforms he is now waxing eloquent against.
We know of intellectual dishonesty. This is intellectual deceit.

picked up on the net

An economist with a short memory is a politician

Raghuram Rajan in Feb 2014..

- APMC Act should be amended
- Food prices should be determined by market
- MSP only for a lower level support
- End Monopoly of middlemen
- Slower increase in MSPs

via @iAnkurSingh

[chetak]

Abhinav Prakash@Abhina_Prakash·Nov 30

Trying to overturn parliamentary decision with street power. BJP should focus on urbanisation & urban centres. And in the next delimitation shift the distribution of seats towards urban areas & reduce the political power of rural areas. Unlike US, RW in India wins in urban areas.

[Ambar]

There is something cultural driving such asinine bombast. A peasant society stuck in a medieval era being bypassed by those with traits more attuned to the 21st century can predictably lash out in this mad flailing.

And they ask “why do they hate us?”

What exactly do you mean by "peasant society stuck in a medieval era"? It's up to you if you want to wallow in your hatred.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 942863.cms

Yograj Singh has never been the epitome of peace/intelligence which is why Yuvraj Singh ( and his separated mother ) stay away in Gurugram rather than Chandigarh. He literally went ballistic on a TV show a few weeks ago because he didn't like a joke( on cricket ) and threatened his co-stars and a female production manager.

Mansinghji, Yograj Singh may not be epitome of peace nor a decent human being but what stopped thousands who were listening to him rant from saying anything against Yograj's vile speech ? If you look at twitter, there are plenty of men and women who are heaping praises on Yograj Singh and his "speech", and none of these "twitter revolutionaries" dare ask the question how and why did farmers protest turn into anti-Hindu and anti-India protest from day 1 ? And shouldn't those supporting Yograj also wonder about millions of Hindu farmers who may also been affected by this so-called unfair bill ?

[chetak]

amarinder singh unloads on parkash singh badal

a frustrated and sidelined amarinder is now feeling the heat from the fire that he ignited in the first place.

ANI@ANI · 7h

I don’t know why Prakash Singh Badal got Padma Vibhushan in the first place. What war did Prakash Singh Badal fight or what sacrifice did he make for the community? Stop politicking on this, these theatrics might have worked 40 years ago but they won’t work now: Punjab CM.

[ManSingh]

What exactly do you mean by "peasant society stuck in a medieval era"? It's up to you if you want to wallow in your hatred.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 942863.cms

Yograj Singh has never been the epitome of peace/intelligence which is why Yuvraj Singh ( and his separated mother ) stay away in Gurugram rather than Chandigarh. He literally went ballistic on a TV show a few weeks ago because he didn't like a joke( on cricket ) and threatened his co-stars and a female production manager.

Mansinghji, Yograj Singh may not be epitome of peace nor a decent human being but what stopped thousands who were listening to him rant from saying anything against Yograj's vile speech ? If you look at twitter, there are plenty of men and women who are heaping praises on Yograj Singh and his "speech", and none of these "twitter revolutionaries" dare ask the question how and why did farmers protest turn into anti-Hindu and anti-India protest from day 1 ? And shouldn't those supporting Yograj also wonder about millions of Hindu farmers who may also been affected by this so-called unfair bill ?

Well I won't attempt to defend the indefensible. Yograj has crossed a limit and deserves to pay for it.

[nvishal]

^It isn't yograj per se.
Members are pointing out the casual Hindu hatred prevalent among everyday Sikhs.

[kiranA]

Here is your answer:

Now in this mahaul where a farmer was screwed around by bureaucrat, trader, ruler etc the only thing he could solidly depend on was his land and his skill to grow his crops. This created what appears to be an irrational love or desire to cling on to land but makes sense if seen on this perspective. This is why when Modi personally says MSP will be there they are not going to believe - they want in writing. And they will never believe in corporate farming (years and years of land leases or price controls) and will never put themselves in a position where they can be hired or fired or price controlled by a corporate bania.

Courtesy KiranA

Let me expand that a bit. Here is how government initiatives in breaking the wheat-rice crop cycle have played out:

1) BT Cotton - Great sell-out to a large global agricultural firm. Worked well a few years till the crop was decimated across India. Forced to switch back to native varieties.

2) Kinnow/Oranges: First took years to reach maturity. Then five years of consecutive losses.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/punjab/h ... F54gM.html

3) Same story for poplar/eucalyptus etc.

There is a reason there is a deep mistrust of the government.

- Notices of discussion/not sudden: Actually this is true. It was not sudden. The bills were opposed when first introduced in June. There was a big pushback. No response or you could call it tone-deaf. In September when the bills were introduced, there was a siege across Punjab, no response. Afterwards Hardip Puri was sent as an interlocutor. No progress either, hence the protest. If Raghuram Rajan wanted to introduce the same 7 years ago, response would have been the same.

- If we have to sell in the open markets, we should be allowed to export right? If the prices will fall from MSP price to a commodities futures based pricing, then export would be competitive, right? Fair play - Farmer's will not be thrown the patriotism gauntlet in the future in the name of food security? Will this be accepted? Read below for why I ask about this.

- Why is hoarding of crops permitted by these bills? Previously hoarding was thought to be a major cause of price rise, correct? For ex: The fall of BJP government in New Delhi due to onion prices. What has changed now?

- Why are legal options restricted by these bills? If farming is to be contractual going forward and priced as per market, why is legal recourse restricted to SDM? Which other commercial disputes are handled at an SDM level? What experience does an IAS have in resolving commercial disputes.

The reason for asking exports to be permitted is that farmers are not at the mercy of corporate leases/farming. Frankly speaking, if someone believes farmers from Punjab/Haryana will ever agree to their produce being priced by a corporate house, you really need a reality check. It will never happen. Just imagine a purchasing manager pricing wheat at 1050 vs 1100 because futures price fell the the previous day. I am very curious to see that happen.

I understand where you are coming from when you ask about what a farmer has done to prepare himself? The response is how do you prepare yourself, when you are forced/encouraged to be on a very narrow course of economic activity and still only barely survive? There is no trust in the government because there has been no positive impact after all these years. Even MSP was only a partial success out of a much larger economic report.

Mansingh, I come from a farming family from coastal andhra. I know exactly what you feel and think. But do not expect many others to even have slightest understanding or respect of what you say. This is a broken society which never understands what others go through. Farmer, described by one poster as "peasant" has always been looked down upon and looted by this society.

I dont come to this forum much anymore. But what made me post here was upon glancing I came across one poster ("chettak" i think) tauntingly say as "how much msp is enough for you? 100 percent?, 150 percent?". These are people who for generations never touched a plough in their family but they want to dictate farmers what they should grow, whom they should sell and how much profit is "enough" for them. In other words they dont want farmers to make their destiny but attempt to write their fates on their forehead .

They call this humiliation in many ways with many tongues. One says this is "market economics" - really ? They changed onion export rules 17 times between 2014-2019. They banned it recently for bihar elections. If price increases a little bit and they need to win even a ward election they will immediately ban and farmers need to shut up and put up with it. Why? "food security". When they have the power they use it recklessly, whimsically, with nary a second thought. But farmers must have "market discipline". Will they ever stop issuing passports to their children from iits, aiims etc in the name of tech security or manufacturing security or medical care security?

Food security, food security food security - they panicked from 60s. The food security gives them policy freedom and more politicking with other countries getting lucrative contracts. Farmers delivered the food security - did they not ? what other security is there in this country apart from food security. Did anyone deliver manufacturing security - no heavily import dependent - even rifles are imported from UAE. did anyone deliver intellectual security? huge zero. Why couldnt they ? Now indian FCI godowns are full of grains but india has one of the worst hunger rankings. Because they do not have the administrative capacity even to move this produce from farmers to hungry people. You mentioned with pride how your relatives with decades of hard work made barren land productive. They don't have any respect for such achievements - they think it is "peasant" stuff and hold their entire lives in contempt. And they themselves achieve nothing.

Another says this is "democracy" and we must accept. They manage elections every five years in that ridiculous first past post system where people getting 30-40% vote in 60-70% turn out wins and they call election management as democracy. Democracy means representation not just elections it means Voice. 40-50% of indians engage in farming - are there 40-50% cabinet ministers from farming background ? we all know who goes there.

Others suddenly became communists and ask sneeringly and tauntingly "how come you are not as poor as bihari or odiya farmer?". Will they ever ask themselves such question - "how come we lived comfortably for generations and have this much wealth but that dalit just down couple of streets is literally had no pucca roof for generations". Never. Some "notice" there are white goods in punjabi farming families and think thats too much. They want all farmers to live crushed materially and in spirit and as poor as they can be.

Others piled on you and tried to gaslight you in to thinking that it is "only" punjabi farmer who is the nuisance. Suddenly the punjabi farmer is the greedy pig who wants too much (100% msp?, 150% msp?). Without punjabi farmer india would never have had food security. They are the largest contributors to FCI and national food stockpile. Maybe thats the mistake you people made Mansingh - your patriotism. Instead of growing for self consumption and international market and non "food security" crops like poultry you destroyed your lands producing rice-wheat for FCI. It never pays

[nvishal]

^ Farmers don't sell their produce for free and nor do consumers get it for free.

No side is indebted to the other. The victim card is unnecessary and invalid.

[ManSingh]

Here is your answer:



Courtesy KiranA

Let me expand that a bit. Here is how government initiatives in breaking the wheat-rice crop cycle have played out:

1) BT Cotton - Great sell-out to a large global agricultural firm. Worked well a few years till the crop was decimated across India. Forced to switch back to native varieties.

2) Kinnow/Oranges: First took years to reach maturity. Then five years of consecutive losses.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/punjab/h ... F54gM.html

3) Same story for poplar/eucalyptus etc.

There is a reason there is a deep mistrust of the government.

- Notices of discussion/not sudden: Actually this is true. It was not sudden. The bills were opposed when first introduced in June. There was a big pushback. No response or you could call it tone-deaf. In September when the bills were introduced, there was a siege across Punjab, no response. Afterwards Hardip Puri was sent as an interlocutor. No progress either, hence the protest. If Raghuram Rajan wanted to introduce the same 7 years ago, response would have been the same.

- If we have to sell in the open markets, we should be allowed to export right? If the prices will fall from MSP price to a commodities futures based pricing, then export would be competitive, right? Fair play - Farmer's will not be thrown the patriotism gauntlet in the future in the name of food security? Will this be accepted? Read below for why I ask about this.

- Why is hoarding of crops permitted by these bills? Previously hoarding was thought to be a major cause of price rise, correct? For ex: The fall of BJP government in New Delhi due to onion prices. What has changed now?

- Why are legal options restricted by these bills? If farming is to be contractual going forward and priced as per market, why is legal recourse restricted to SDM? Which other commercial disputes are handled at an SDM level? What experience does an IAS have in resolving commercial disputes.

The reason for asking exports to be permitted is that farmers are not at the mercy of corporate leases/farming. Frankly speaking, if someone believes farmers from Punjab/Haryana will ever agree to their produce being priced by a corporate house, you really need a reality check. It will never happen. Just imagine a purchasing manager pricing wheat at 1050 vs 1100 because futures price fell the the previous day. I am very curious to see that happen.

I understand where you are coming from when you ask about what a farmer has done to prepare himself? The response is how do you prepare yourself, when you are forced/encouraged to be on a very narrow course of economic activity and still only barely survive? There is no trust in the government because there has been no positive impact after all these years. Even MSP was only a partial success out of a much larger economic report.

Mansingh, I come from a farming family from coastal andhra. I know exactly what you feel and think. But do not expect many others to even have slightest understanding or respect of what you say. This is a broken society which never understands what others go through. Farmer, described by one poster as "peasant" has always been looked down upon and looted by this society.

I dont come to this forum much anymore. But what made me post here was upon glancing I came across one poster ("chettak" i think) tauntingly say as "how much msp is enough for you? 100 percent?, 150 percent?". These are people who for generations never touched a plough in their family but they want to dictate farmers what they should grow, whom they should sell and how much profit is "enough" for them. In other words they dont want farmers to make their destiny but attempt to write their fates on their forehead .

They call this humiliation in many ways with many tongues. One says this is "market economics" - really ? They changed onion export rules 17 times between 2014-2019. They banned it recently for bihar elections. If price increases a little bit and they need to win even a ward election they will immediately ban and farmers need to shut up and put up with it. Why? "food security". When they have the power they use it recklessly, whimsically, with nary a second thought. But farmers must have "market discipline". Will they ever stop issuing passports to their children from iits, aiims etc in the name of tech security or manufacturing security or medical care security?

Food security, food security food security - they panicked from 60s. The food security gives them policy freedom and more politicking with other countries getting lucrative contracts. Farmers delivered the food security - did they not ? what other security is there in this country apart from food security. Did anyone deliver manufacturing security - no heavily import dependent - even rifles are imported from UAE. did anyone deliver intellectual security? huge zero. Why couldnt they ? Now indian FCI godowns are full of grains but india has one of the worst hunger rankings. Because they do not have the administrative capacity even to move this produce from farmers to hungry people. You mentioned with pride how your relatives with decades of hard work made barren land productive. They don't have any respect for such achievements - they think it is "peasant" stuff and hold their entire lives in contempt. And they themselves achieve nothing.

Another says this is "democracy" and we must accept. They manage elections every five years in that ridiculous first past post system where people getting 30-40% vote in 60-70% turn out wins and they call election management as democracy. Democracy means representation not just elections it means Voice. 40-50% of indians engage in farming - are there 40-50% cabinet ministers from farming background ? we all know who goes there.

Others suddenly became communists and ask sneeringly and tauntingly "how come you are not as poor as bihari or odiya farmer?". Will they ever ask themselves such question - "how come we lived comfortably for generations and have this much wealth but that dalit just down couple of streets is literally had no pucca roof for generations". Never. Some "notice" there are white goods in punjabi farming families and think thats too much. They want all farmers to live crushed materially and in spirit and as poor as they can be.

Others piled on you and tried to gaslight you in to thinking that it is "only" punjabi farmer who is the nuisance. Suddenly the punjabi farmer is the greedy pig who wants too much (100% msp?, 150% msp?). Without punjabi farmer india would never have had food security. They are the largest contributors to FCI and national food stockpile. Maybe thats the mistake you people made Mansingh - your patriotism. Instead of growing for self consumption and international market and non "food security" crops like poultry you destroyed your lands producing rice-wheat for FCI. It never pays

Thank you for your comments. Glad to hear that there are other kin of farmers who also feel the same in other parts of India.

- Some "notice" there are white goods in punjabi farming families and think thats too much. They want all farmers to live crushed materially and in spirit and as poor as they can be.

This part of your comment is the one that troubles me the most. Besides noticing white capital goods, someone also noticed that Punjabi farmers smoke "foreign maal". Great observation and I guess this happens only in Punjab, right? Mumbai, Goa etc do not have a drugs problem or they are a part of Punjab, I am not sure. Also how dare, do farmers get rich. Not suitable to watch for some.

- Farmers are now expected to have knowledge of business negotiations, logistics, future's, options etc. I guess the skill of farming is not good enough.

- Only one poster, Suraj makes sense when he replies ( No, I am not trying to be on the good side of a forum moderator ). I get it what farmers are asking is not sustainable and also goes against market economics. Ultimately change has to happen and will happen but you would expect a democratic government to not push it down as a "My way or the highway".

- I have tried to explain the social contract multiple times to no avail. During the 1960's, it was FCI who pushed for infrastructure in Punjab. This meant investments in irrigation canals, rural infrastructure, smooth polished procurement system etc. This was done as the Punjabi/Haryana ( and partially Western U.P. ) were deemed critical to food security of the nation. Naturally higher investment meant a higher production but also higher quality of life, higher costs ( of labor, land prices etc. ). Now when alternatives have come into picture, it is being said that no you guys get too much of a procurement quota, too much price for your crops. Does anyone get it that the productivity was increased to meet a national goal? The cost of doing business in Pb, Haryana is much higher than deep Odisha and Bihar?

- Patriotism. This is the worst argument I hear on social media or this forum on why farmer's are not supposed to protest. Sometimes, I don't even know what to say. One farmer who was protesting heard about the death of his son at the LOC( Army man ) while he was sitting on protest. Just an example.

- We are a peasant society not ready for 21st century based on the statements of one crazy guy.
Seriously mate?? With one of the highest education rates in the country. Also some people feel powerful when they are a part of a mob or behind the handle of a social media. What has that got to do with the issue?

- Why Punjabi's are at the fore front of agitation?
Because that is the way we are built to be. Did anyone ask as to why Punjabi's have the highest number of freedom fighters who were sent to the gallows ( only lesser than Bengal ) or were imprisoned? Did anyone ask as to why regiments from Punjab, Haryana have the most number of gallantry awards? We like to make sure our voices are heard and that we are not just asked to accept what is being offered.

Till now I have heard the following are the goals of this bill:

1) Free the farmer fro middlemen - This is the rationale offered by the government. Acceptable in some cases but not all provisions of the bills are to "free" us.

2) Lower the expense of FCI: This goal was discovered on twitter after the bills had been passed. Of course basic economics tells that on a supply curve, if average price is lowered, supplier output will decrease. Only in this case it means that suppliers ( farmers ) will go out of business.

3) Equalize the payments to farmers across markets in India: This goal was discovered on this forum. It does not mean that farmers in other parts of India will get a higher quality of life. All it means is that certain farmers who had white capital goods will now no longer be able to afford them.

[m_saini]

Did anyone deliver manufacturing security - no heavily import dependent - even rifles are imported from UAE.

Won't say anything about the rest because this is obviously a very passionate issue for you but the above is because GoI doesn't promises to buy weapons made in desh at inflated prices (like a MSP for guns if you will).

Arjun tanks, LCA order etc all languish because no-one wants to buy indigenous citing "no money" but happily buy imported stuff. Farmers are extremely lucky in this regard.

If they provide MSP for weapons, give loan waivers to private MIC, zero taxes, industrial support such as cheap/free electricity for 40-50 years in name of weapons security, we would never have to buy rifles from UAE.

And then after 40-50 years, do you think it'd be reasonable for private weapon companies to continue to expect MSP for weapons?

Or how would you feel about a program that promises "intellectual security' by giving guaranteed jobs to engineers at salary levels 50-60% higher than international levels? All paid by income taxes that are now also collected from farmers? Do you think those IIT/IIMs guys would leave India if such conditions are available?

[ManSingh]

^ Farmers don't sell their produce for free and nor do consumers get it for free.

No side is indebted to the other. The victim card is unnecessary and invalid.

Sir, food/food security is not a cellular data plan. It's a system/skill that takes decades to develop.
I am not saying it will but if things go awry, there will be no "producer" to sell even if a consumer wants it.

Let me elaborate myself a but further with a few examples:

1. Sea-faring/ship building: Let's take this as another skill/system. With our defence needs and in the future trade needs, India will need a lot more sea-farers, companies with knowledge of shipping industry. What will be required is the whole gamut : insurance, logistics planning, tankers. Do you expect to pay to acquire this industry/system as a consumer? I would be very curious as to which producer is going to sell you all the skills/systems needed.

2. Industrial management/Production technology: With the sheer talent pool we have, you would have assumed setting-up manufacturing lines and allied activities related to manufacturing ( product management, lifecycle management, logistics etc. ) would have been trivial. After all if we can design stuff, shouldn't we be able to build it ourselves as well. It is only a matter of investing a few crore rupees, right? If we can spend, what else is missing.

The point is India as a country has been performing well below it's potential due to it's mercantile attitude. The chinese, russians, americans will happily trade your silver for goods.

The Chinese will easily sell you any core infra that is needed for a cellular network but they won't teach you how to make one.
Being able to do that in-house in any field is not something that is going to come via paying your way through. Let's try to fix problems where they exist and not ruin what we already have.

[ManSingh]

Did anyone deliver manufacturing security - no heavily import dependent - even rifles are imported from UAE.

Won't say anything about the rest because this is obviously a very passionate issue for you but the above is because GoI doesn't promises to buy weapons made in desh at inflated prices (like a MSP for guns if you will).

Arjun tanks, LCA order etc all languish because no-one wants to buy indigenous citing "no money" but happily buy imported stuff. Farmers are extremely lucky in this regard.

If they provide MSP for weapons, give loan waivers to private MIC, zero taxes, industrial support such as cheap/free electricity for 40-50 years in name of weapons security, we would never have to buy rifles from UAE.

And then after 40-50 years, do you think it'd be reasonable for private weapon companies to continue to expect MSP for weapons?

Or how would you feel about a program that promises "intellectual security' by giving guaranteed jobs to engineers at salary levels 50-60% higher than international levels? All paid by income taxes that are now also collected from farmers? Do you think those IIT/IIMs guys would leave India if such conditions are available?

Yes, exactly if the defence industry were offered support it would flourish. Also yes, after a few years they would expect to be awarded contracts to keep weapons manufacturing running. This is how all defence firms work be it Boeing, Raytheon, or Sukhoi etc.

For your education part, check Singapore. If a student accepts government scholarship to pay for his college degree, he is expected to work for 2 years with a Singaporean firm and a job is not guaranteed. If he wishes to explore greener pastures, he is expected to pay from his own pocket for his degree. It's only in India where government subsidizes top-notch education for Indians so that they can sell Garlic Naan-Butter Chicken in the US in a few years( sarcasm - no offence meant. It is perfectly OK to open an Indian restaurant in NJ after graduating from IIT at GOI's expense ).

[m_saini]

Yes, exactly if the defence industry were offered support it would flourish. Also yes, after a few years they would expect to be awarded contracts to keep weapons manufacturing running. This is how all defence firms work be it Boeing, Raytheon, or Sukhoi etc.

So you're agreeing with me that if defense industry was given the level of support farmers enjoy, they'd flourish and we won't have to import rifles from UAE? not sure what else you meant.

For your education part, check Singapore. If a student accepts government scholarship to pay for his college degree, he is expected to work for 2 years with a Singaporean firm and a job is not guaranteed. If he wishes to explore greener pastures, he is expected to pay from his own pocket for his degree. It's only in India where government subsidizes top-notch education for Indians so that they can sell Garlic Naan-Butter Chicken in the US in a few years( sarcasm - no offence meant. It is perfectly OK to open an Indian restaurant in NJ after graduating from IIT at GOI's expense ).

You left out the part where Singapore doesn't guarantees jobs to college graduates at salary levels far above the international standards. Far as I know, undergrad salary levels in india are *nothing* compared to the salary levels of US universities. Guarantee your IIT graduate a salary level 40% above that of a Harvard guy and those guys would happily pay back the subsidies and provide "intellectual security". You don't even have to provide them free electricity or income tax exemption unlike the farmers.

[nvishal]

ManSingh, you are going off tangent.

Cut the long arguments and understand this very carefully.

Indian farmers cannot compete with global farmers. This is one of the reasons why heavy subsidies exist. This system cannot sustain for long. We are at a stage where we need to change our system or collapse. If we don't invite private players into India's agricultural sector now(silos warehousing, marketing distribution etc), there will be no peace and no rest in the coming decades.

[hanumadu]

Swati Goel Sharma Retweeted
Navdeep Singh
@SinghNavdeep
·
5h
Subtle injection of hate, mostly aided by handles sitting out of the country who are not affected. Don't be gullible, don't fall for half-truths and this poison disguised in gyan or information. This has happened before, don't let history repeat itself. BE ONE.

Social media has a tendency of amplifying things. So I would suggest to not believe everything you see. Exercise restraint on SM and here.

[hanumadu]

Sardar Lucky Singh
@lucky_s_chawla
I am a “SINGH” and I am not a “KHALISTANI“.

I will live and die in my country Flag of India

People like #DiljitDosanjh and #JazzyB do not represent us.

Jai Hind !!

This guy is BJP IT cell. Even otherwise there are many Sikhs who are condemning calls for Khalistan. So lets have some restraint and not fall for tactics from khalistanis and from across the border.

[schinnas]

Totally agreed. If Indians (esp Punjabi Hindus) have any common sense, they will post in Twitter in English and in Punjabi under Sikh names calling out the lies and hatred of Kalistani / ISI propaganda instead of complaining like children that ISI and brainwashed NRI Khalistanis are fuelling the fire in social media. When ISI can post under Sikh names in Twitter, why are concerned Indians not doing the same.

[fanne]

Man Singh ji being on KiranA side of any argument is like agree with Bajwa or IKN on Indo-Pak issue