India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 10 Dec 2020 15:33

The Russians are reminded of how PLA ambushed their forces on the border during the soviet days to trigger a conflict. The soviets were surprised that the PRC wanted to challenge a superior power.

Also the PRC know India is weak in current financial circumstances. They are forcing India to divert monies to defence unsustainably. They believe this is how the US collapsed the Soviets

RajaRudra · Post by **RajaRudra** » 10 Dec 2020 16:27

arshyam wrote: Actually, an open external threat is a sure shot way to kill the current farmer protests. There is no way these farmers will trouble the govt when there is a paki or chinese attack. Yes, the hijacking elements (khalistani, urban naxals, shaheen bagh types) may try the keep the protests going, but the farmer side of it will fizzle out very fast. And that will be the end of this nonsense. So, if these external actors want to stir the pot, they would do it under the radar onlee...

My perception is Pakistan is seeing something(that we are not seeing, at least as of now).

Winter had arrived, mountains are now frozen, the chances of cheeni help materializing on time is remote now for pakistan.
IA had built up enough in the required regions. If the green light is given, POK or at the least a part of it can be liberated at the quickest possible time.

may be, this activity and news from pakistan is outcome of that anxiety.

I am wondering, if that is what actually planned by GOI, may they could have had that farm laws much later in their tenure. I have full faith on the farmers , but the presence of Commies/ Congress/ microscopic level kalistan supporters, there is a chance some of that elements can do some nasty thing and the entire blame may fall on farmers.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 10 Dec 2020 16:46

It is OT - but we have to understand that it takes two to three years for the farm laws to give positive results on the ground. So timing is ok politically.

As far as any national security requirement to open roads etc in the event of war, rest assured the so called farmers will be cleared from the roads in no time if there is any such situation.

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 11 Dec 2020 12:40

Pakis being spoken to in a language they understand

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/indian-ar ... facilities

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 14 Dec 2020 04:21

Shishir Gupta writes in HT that China wants India to accept the new normal and normalize ties in the coming few months. I think Lavrov's statement also implies that Russia wants India to normalize ties with China.
That would be hard for the govt to do. Does it mean that India will keep the heights in the Kailash range?

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 14 Dec 2020 04:41

csharma wrote:Shishir Gupta writes in HT that China wants India to accept the new normal and normalize ties in the coming few months. I think Lavrov's statement also implies that Russia wants India to normalize ties with China.
That would be hard for the govt to do. Does it mean that India will keep the heights in the Kailash range?

if only wishes were horses, no

India can and will sustain herself on her internal markets better than the hans can.

we have already diversified and derisked our oil supply sources besides no oil producer can hope to annoy India and get away with it. The rest we will manage without the hans

eyeran doesn't even count

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 14 Dec 2020 04:46

Here is the article.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/analysis ... L5VJK.html

While India wants China to restore status quo ante of April 2020, Beijing apparently feels that Modi government will come to terms with the new normal on LAC and revive ties in the coming months and willy-nilly accept the rise of the Middle Kingdom.

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 14 Dec 2020 04:48

I think India will stand firm. But I don't get what Shishir Gupta is saying. If India accepts the changes at LAC, does it mean China accepts that India will keep the Kailash range heights?

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 14 Dec 2020 05:19

Yagnasri wrote:It is OT - but we have to understand that it takes two to three years for the farm laws to give positive results on the ground. So timing is ok politically.

As far as any national security requirement to open roads etc in the event of war, rest assured the so called farmers will be cleared from the roads in no time if there is any such situation.

These are sikhs.

they will agitate but, at their level, they understand NATSEC better than most.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 14 Dec 2020 05:19

Just another shill.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 14 Dec 2020 05:38

Indian defence forces to stock weapons and ammunition for 15-day intense war

NEW DELHI: In the middle of a conflict with China, India has taken a significant step by authorising the defence forces to enhance their stocking of weapons and ammunition for a 15-day intense war now.

Making use of the extended stocking requirements and the emergency financial powers in the ongoing conflict with China in Eastern Ladakh, the defence forces are expected to spend over Rs 50,000 crore for acquisition of equipment and ammunition from both local and foreign sources.

The authorisation to increase the weapon and ammunition reserves to minimum 15-I levels from the earlier existing 10-day stocking is to prepare the defence forces for a two-front war with both China and Pakistan.

"A number of weapon systems and ammunition are being acquired now under the authorisation of having reserves to fight a 15-day intense war with the enemies. The stocking would now be at 15-I level from the 10 I levels," government sources told ANI.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 14 Dec 2020 05:44

Double-lane roads essential for Army's mobilisation at northern border with China

NEW DELHI: The ongoing military confrontation between India and China, in the Himalayas for over the past six months, has cast its shadow on three roads -- Rishikesh to Gangotri (231 km), Rishikesh to Mana (281 km) and Tanakpur to Pithoragarh (162 km) -- which lead up to the northern border with China.

The Ministry of Defence has emphasized that these roads, terming them as feeder roads, falling under Chardham Pariyojana, are strategically important for the security and should be at least double lane. The Indian armed forces have establishments located along the Nelong Axis, Mana Pass, Rimkhim Pass, Niti Pass and Lipulekh Pass, which are all along the Indo-China border.

Three national highways connect to these army establishments: Rishikesh-Dharasu-Gangotri (NH-94 and NH-108, connecting Nelong and Nilapani Axis); Rishikesh-Joshimath-Mana (NH-58) connecting Mana-Rimkhim and Niti Pass; and Tanakpur-Pithoragarh (NH-125) connecting Lipulekh Pass. The Centre has underlined that it is essential that three feeder roads which are being constructed by Border Roads Organization should be double laned, having width of 7m or 7.5 m if there is a raised kerb.

SBajwa · Post by **SBajwa** » 14 Dec 2020 06:57

2 terrorists killed 3rd one captured at Poonch.

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/j-k/t ... ght-183809

Jammu, December 13

Two militants were killed and a third captured after a gunfight with security forces in the upper reaches of Jammu and Kashmir's Poonch, officials said on Sunday.

The gunfight broke out after police launched a search operation in the higher reaches of Surankote in Poonch district of Jammu and Kashmir, officials said.

Police assisted by the Army personnel launched a joint cordon-and-search operation in remote Chattapani-Dugran village after getting information about the presence of three suspected militants, the officials said.

They said the hiding militants opened fire on the search teams in an attempt to break the cordon.

The security forces retaliated to neutralise the militants, the officials said, adding further details are awaited. ---PTI

putnanja · Post by **putnanja** » 14 Dec 2020 14:28

How Indian Army’s secrecy & unorthodox deployment fooled the Chinese at Pangong Tso

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 15 Dec 2020 01:35

Love the positive article but reality is GOI have some very tough choices. Both India and China are bleeding (weapons, equipment, manpower, money).

GOI needs to fix the economy and the Nat Sec/Defence establishment need to start thinking out of the box to resolve the crisis..

chola · Post by **chola** » 15 Dec 2020 01:37

shyamd wrote:Love the positive article but reality is GOI have some very tough choices. Both India and China are bleeding (weapons, equipment, manpower, money).

GOI needs to fix the economy and the Nat Sec/Defence establishment need to start thinking out of the box to resolve the crisis..

^^^ Cheen used to run a skeleton crew with two brigades on the plateau. Now they are maintaining multiple divisions. They are bleeding a lot more than before.

nam · Post by **nam** » 15 Dec 2020 01:55

It is not just on the border, the Chinis are loosing big time on the trade access.

That is 60B worth of trade going away. The border may cost 5B extra per year or less. Just the tik tok ban caused them a loss of more than 5B in valuation. Not to mention, the biggest problem of all. India getting allied to US.

The issue for Chinis is India has to agree to respect the new line for them to disengage. We will not do it, even if there is a war..

So Chinis have no way out.

chola · Post by **chola** » 15 Dec 2020 02:16

nam wrote:It is not just on the border, the Chinis are loosing big time on the trade access.

That is 60B worth of trade going away. The border may cost 5B extra per year or less. Just the tik tok ban caused them a loss of more than 5B in valuation. Not to mention, the biggest problem of all. India getting allied to US.

The issue for Chinis is India has to agree to respect the new line for them to disengage. We will not do it, even if there is a war..

So Chinis have no way out.

I wonder about the trade piece, especially the apps. Cheen is breaking records with their exports while at the same time going after Alibaba (they just torpedoed the largest IPO in Chinese history -- actually Ant would have been the largest IPO anywhere) and other chini software giants like Tencent. The CCP doesn't particularly like even chini social media like Tik Tok that takes a bit away from their manic control over the chini populace. Clobbering their apps won't bother then overly me thinks.

What will affect them is going after their manufacturing and infrastructure companies which are more than likely SOEs -- stopping imports of tech and auto parts, APIs and removing chini tech from powerplants, metros and telecoms etc. We haven't done enough of that.

Davidrock · Post by **Davidrock** » 15 Dec 2020 07:39

News today is china has banned coal imports from Australia, which is a $14 billion business annually. This 2020 trade war is intensifying, and creates a good opportunity for us to expand our trade. Hoping we make use of the situation.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 15 Dec 2020 10:21

How are they going to produce steel? This might be just making virtue of necessity considering people are moving away from thermal plants including china. Let them stop importing coke.

nam · Post by **nam** » 15 Dec 2020 22:32

chola wrote: I wonder about the trade piece, especially the apps. Cheen is breaking records with their exports while at the same time going after Alibaba (they just torpedoed the largest IPO in Chinese history -- actually Ant would have been the largest IPO anywhere) and other chini software giants like Tencent. The CCP doesn't particularly like even chini social media like Tik Tok that takes a bit away from their manic control over the chini populace. Clobbering their apps won't bother then overly me thinks.

What will affect them is going after their manufacturing and infrastructure companies which are more than likely SOEs -- stopping imports of tech and auto parts, APIs and removing chini tech from powerplants, metros and telecoms etc. We haven't done enough of that.

The chinis know very well that India is the only one who can be the alternative, in outsourced manufacturing for US & Europe given our size and cost.
they want to keep us friendly and uncut our manufacturing with heavily subsidized exports in to our market. API is a perfect example. They just made it cheaper to import.
They also know if we block their imports, India will start building up local manufacturing, and become a alternative to outsource. Chini's biggest strength is that they have killed the competition. They have made sure there is no cheaper ( or closer )alternative.

Their tech apps are also one form of export, specially the ones who plan to list on NASDAQ and fleece cash of the Americans.

Due to all of these, despite our various bans and tariffs, Chinis has been very quiet with us. Compare this with their response to Australia for a mere comment by their PM..

sarkar · Post by **sarkar** » 16 Dec 2020 00:14

https://jpod.buzzsprout.com/1419625/685 ... on-of-2020
A reality check by Krishna Prasad & Sushant Singh on the Laddakh clash and lies of BJP govt. Podcast link.

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 16 Dec 2020 03:01

Sushant Singh is a known BJP and Modi baiter, no?

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 16 Dec 2020 03:23

nam wrote:It is not just on the border, the Chinis are loosing big time on the trade access.

That is 60B worth of trade going away. The border may cost 5B extra per year or less. Just the tik tok ban caused them a loss of more than 5B in valuation. Not to mention, the biggest problem of all. India getting allied to US.

The issue for Chinis is India has to agree to respect the new line for them to disengage. We will not do it, even if there is a war..

So Chinis have no way out.

It's a war of attrition... Question is who will eventually run out of resources or won't have money to sustain. Also keep in mind the soldiers getting "injured" due to heart issues etc result in long term cost to the country.

Sorry but from the people I speak to - China thinks GOI will back down eventually because they dont have the monetary/economic resources and traders are still buying from china despite tarrifs. China has told traders they are ready to subsidise GOI tariffs...traders being traders just want to make money... Not to sound negative but this is something to think about at the NSC/CSG level.

Also - IA is failing to deter TSPA who are keen to pile on the pressure.

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 16 Dec 2020 04:05

So PLA does not want to attack ? Just wants to wait out. I thought they wanted to give a knock out punch

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 16 Dec 2020 04:14

What shyamd is saying matches what Shishir Gupta wrote. China expects India to climb down and normalize ties in the coming months.

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 16 Dec 2020 05:04

shyamd wrote:China has told traders they are ready to subsidise GOI tariffs...traders being traders just want to make money...

This does not add up - the Indian security establishment is usually very very harsh on any trade body who talks behind its back to a foreign govt like this, let alone china. “Traders being traders” does not seem to explain this, if it is actually happening and it caught the eye.

Infact I have have heard the reverse from builders/architects who used to travel to Guangzhou for building materials and interior furnishings, that the Chinese side is very skittish about their prospects after the tensions rose and trade is down. India was a huge market for lots of construction materials shipped from the Pearl Delta. Infact towns like Morbi must be having a great time compared to past.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 16 Dec 2020 05:22

World trade with China is up since TINA. This might be part of that until other suppliers are created.

Davidrock · Post by **Davidrock** » 16 Dec 2020 07:31

I biggest issue I see wrt India is corruption. Business cannot flourish in corrupt environment.
The chinese make very simple things for western countries - glass, spoons, simple stationary, and lots. Why has India not been able to compete ? almost all stores in Australia have 90% chinese goods...now that the Australians are beginning to realize that china is not their friend, they will be happy to invest in india. And if corruption stops it at home, they have many alternatives in other asian countries.

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 16 Dec 2020 11:55

This report indicates that there will be a long standoff. Prof Kondapalli also says that.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Intern ... ted-border

We are firmed in. As is the other side. At this juncture, it would be difficult for us to withdraw," said retired Lt. Gen. Rakesh Sharma, the former commander of the XIV Corps of the Indian Army, the group now entrenched in the conflict with China.

"The reasons are as topographic as they are political," Sharma said. "Our main passes, Zojila and Rohtang, are closed. We cannot do force deinduction by land. Withdrawal by air would be too exorbitant an exercise. India will maintain these numbers till the summer when the snows melt."

"The problem is that we don’t know when this situation will be resolved. They have prepared for the long haul," said Srikanth Kondapalli, professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi.

"This means that both sides are not in a hurry to resolve this conflict," he said.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 16 Dec 2020 15:44

hnair wrote: This does not add up - the Indian security establishment is usually very very harsh on any trade body who talks behind its back to a foreign govt like this, let alone china. “Traders being traders” does not seem to explain this, if it is actually happening and it caught the eye.

China doesn't need to talk to any Indian trade body to officially communicate. They can just use policy - which is what they have done. I'm sure there will be slight differences in sector to sector.

GOI have seriously considered sanctions against PRC - however they realised that Indian industry is overreliant on chinese for the most basic stuff... there is a 4 year plan to reduce this reliance. Most countries are also doing the same post COVID. In europe for example PRC ambassadors are now being isolated (apart from Rome).

chola · Post by **chola** » 16 Dec 2020 17:35

csharma wrote:So PLA does not want to attack ? Just wants to wait out. I thought they wanted to give a knock out punch

Check when was the last time they actually fought a hot war. The power they have today is based entirely on building up numbers and waiting out the competition.

They gained de facto jurisdiction of a territory in the SCS bigger than India by simply building fake islands and flooding the area with ships and aircraft.

The record over the last four decades show unequivocably that they won't fight unless they have to (and they never have to because no one outside Khan really wants to tackle a military with that many ships and aircraft.) Their military is set up to occupy and wait out while providing a protective shield for their industrial complex to take over with machines and infrastructure.

They are not going attack -- except on the slide and even then with sticks and clubs to avoid things going fully kinetic.

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 17 Dec 2020 08:07

Jayadev Ranade had said a few months back that China would like to deliver a knock out punch which would establish China as the victor. That would put India out of Asian power scene for a long time just like the 1962 war did.

But IA will not allow that. Maybe they are searching for a window of opportunity.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 17 Dec 2020 11:48

Thats the problem with the in crowd in Delhi. They expect Chinese triumph over India.

Won't happen.

BTW, many experts looked back at 1962 and realized it was bad tactics that led to the debacle. And loss of political nerve that put India on backfoot.
And it did not knockout India as an Asian power then.

It was the deep demilitarization by moron Nehru that did it.

Can you post the link to Ranade's tirade?

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 17 Dec 2020 12:11

shyamd wrote: China doesn't need to talk to any Indian trade body to officially communicate. They can just use policy - which is what they have done. I'm sure there will be slight differences in sector to sector.

Ok, so it is speculation based on what they are alleged to have done (which is not yet reported anywhere). It is not feasible for China to subsidize, say, full 100% penalty duties that the government of India usually slaps. Not for a giant market like India. It will run into tens of billions of dollars, which their political system would not support for the sake of H&D

But that is not what you said earlier, which is this:

shyamd wrote: China has told traders they are ready to subsidise GOI tariffs...traders being traders just want to make money...

Vidur · Post by **Vidur** » 17 Dec 2020 13:42

Fact is that an attack by China will be be welcome - it is they who will be decimated

The player's thinking is as follows :

Military - IAF is keen on action because they have a short window of 1/2 years where they have an advantage. IA has been defensive and risk averse but now the mood is changing as they see the damage the Chinese are facing due to winter deployment. IN is the most risk averse and have become defensive due to HADR duties but a strong political directive + operations will change their stance

Def Minister and ministry - Supportive of action

MEA - Traditionally 'peace loving' and were very keen on talks but thanks to Chinese intransigence they are recalibrating albeit slowly and partially

Chinese (and this is of course an assessment and not direct knowledge) - will not go to war under any circumstances as they know they are at a disadvantage due to geography, training, recruitment and war fighting experience. They will focus on eliminating those disadvantages, Information Warfare, subversion, and will strike in 2/3 years when their disadvantages are eliminated

Some days ago an Army colleague whose tactical knowledge and experience I respect, told me that winter is the time we should push forward and take more important positions. The Chinese are on the back foot in unfamiliar terrain and weather. We have the advantage and should use it to do what the Chinese have been doing for years.There is low risk of this sparking a significant confrontation per him.

nam · Post by **nam** » 17 Dec 2020 23:07

62 wasn't a knock out blow. It is considered one, because we didn't carry out a counter offensive. Chinis know they cannot win, unless India accepts defeat.

The Chinis empty the areas captured in 62 during every winter! No one in 60 years has ever thought about just walking in! That's how we are.

I am convinced Chinis would like to take a shot at us. But they want a situation where we don't counter attack.They need to know, there is nothing to loose. That is the only way to win.

It can happen in two situation:
1. Political leaders in Delhi, do a Nehru and accept a ceasefire on loosing land.
2. Weather doesn't allow us to counter attack.

The second part is what concerns me now. A quick campaign using all the latest gizmo and a rapid ceasefire call by Chini would unbalance us, until we gather ourself up.

Winter is that time, which will tied us from a immediate counter attack. A Pak terror attack will be the window for the Chinis..

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 17 Dec 2020 23:43

nam wrote:62 wasn't a knock out blow. It is considered one, because we didn't carry out a counter offensive. Chinis know they cannot win, unless India accepts defeat.

The Chinis empty the areas captured in 62 during every winter! No one in 60 years has ever thought about just walking in! That's how we are.

This is something that should be required to be debated at every education institute before allowing out of the 10th grade.

nam · Post by **nam** » 18 Dec 2020 00:44

This is a fascinating video on how German army managed to fight for so long in WW2 till the end, despite numerous defeats. It will explain why our men went all Kali on the Chinis, when they killed the CO.

It also tells us that soldiers need to be relate themselves to the land they are fighting. The Paks got that medicine in 71. PLA will get the same in the future, when they go against Ladakh scots & SFF.

Vidur · Post by **Vidur** » 18 Dec 2020 01:44

nam wrote:62 wasn't a knock out blow. It is considered one, because we didn't carry out a counter offensive. Chinis know they cannot win, unless India accepts defeat.

The Chinis empty the areas captured in 62 during every winter! No one in 60 years has ever thought about just walking in! That's how we are.

I am convinced Chinis would like to take a shot at us. But they want a situation where we don't counter attack.They need to know, there is nothing to loose. That is the only way to win.

It can happen in two situation:
1. Political leaders in Delhi, do a Nehru and accept a ceasefire on loosing land.
2. Weather doesn't allow us to counter attack.

The second part is what concerns me now. A quick campaign using all the latest gizmo and a rapid ceasefire call by Chini would unbalance us, until we gather ourself up.

Winter is that time, which will tied us from a immediate counter attack. A Pak terror attack will be the window for the Chinis..

Sir, with greatest of respect the last part is just devoid of military logic and appreciation of terrain and ground realities. Please rest assured that we are in well prepared defensive positions with enough reserves. The first makes any attack by China suicidal and the second means immediate counter offensives by us. I hope you are aware we have almost 3 armd brigade equivalent in the area. I hope you are not taken in by the nonsensical propaganda of Global Times.

Allow me to end by saying that is that if Chinese attack our armed forces will be quite grateful for an opportunity to smash them. As the movie Dirty Harry goes 'Go ahead, make my days'. I'm sure the Chinese are not silly enough to oblige.