INS Vikrant: News and Discussion

[rajsunder]

I am being serious, how can Indian navy face a 500 ship navy with two or three puny carriers? How long can navy hope to play defensive game against a country that eventually might deploy 15 100K carriers?

This is what following the China Military Watch thread does to folks on BRF.

rajsunder, even the PLAN does not have a plan for fifteen 100,000K aircraft carriers. Even the mighty and infallible PLAN cannot afford this. They have reduced their future aircraft carrier acquisitions as well. Even they are facing a cash shortage.

did anyone think that china is going to have 500 ship navy? chineese want to beat US with numbers.

[LakshmanPST]

Given the budgetary constraints, the way forward is to build a 2nd Vikrant Class STOBAR carrier with target completion between 2030-35...
Parallely start design work for a 65k CATOBAR (and if money is available, design work for EMALS as well)... Start construction post 2030 with target date for commission around 2045-50 by the time Vikramaditya retires...

[Rakesh]

did anyone think that china is going to have 500 ship navy? chineese want to beat US with numbers.

Are all 500 ships going to enter the Indian Ocean to teach us evil Indians a lesson?

How long do you think that will take? Are you aware of how busy the Straits of Malacca and other sea lanes in South East Asia are with commercial naval traffic?

If the PLAN is going to send their entire fleet to counter India, what will they do to engage Taiwan, Japan and the US 7th fleet?

Will India be sitting with her eyes closed when that massive naval flotilla enters the Indian Ocean? How does the IN manage to track Chinese subs that enter the Indian Ocean and then continue to track them, as they make their journey to Gwadar in Pak?

Please stop drinking the kook-aid from chola and others in the China military watch thread. It serves one purpose only. To buy phoren platforms that will tie India into a bind diplomatically and geopolitically.

The Indian super carrier program (INS Vishal) is designed to do just that. Buy a phoren carrier based aircraft with supporting equipment (EMALS) to deter the PLAN. What is one 65K aircraft carrier going to do against fifteen 100K aircraft carriers of the PlAN? Please think about what you are saying.

This is why you need to stop reading that thread. Only serves to scare monger and dhoti shiver. American SE fighter program failed, so now the new strategy to buy an American fighter is through the Navy. Just the presence of one F-18SH will send all fifteen carrier battle groups of the PLAN scurrying back to their home base.

[m_saini]

.....Just the presence of one F-18SH will send all fifteen carrier battle groups of the PLAN scurrying back to their home base.

15 (!!!) 100k CATOBAR chini carriers sound a bit unrealistic. Chinese are not the Kree

[chola]

Please stop drinking the kook-aid from chola and others in the China military watch thread. It serves one purpose only. To buy phoren platforms that will tie India into a bind diplomatically and geopolitically.

The Indian super carrier program (INS Vishal) is designed to do just that. Buy a phoren carrier based aircraft with supporting equipment (EMALS) to deter the PLAN. What is one 65K aircraft carrier going to do against fifteen 100K aircraft carriers of the PlAN? Please think about what you are saying.

This is why you need to stop reading that thread. Only serves to scare monger and dhoti shiver. American SE fighter program failed, so now the new strategy to buy an American fighter is through the Navy. Just the presence of one F-18SH will send all fifteen carrier battle groups of the PLAN scurrying back to their home base.

Admiral Saar, don't worry I'll never post in that stupid thread again. I never posted chini propaganda bs just forward tweets from mainly German, French and Japanese watchers. I thought it was important to keep tabs on our adversary and that through a set of non-chini mostly non-American sources.

But if it is seen as nefarious with some sort of agenda bent on hooking us to phoren gear then screw it, the only reason I joined BR in the first place is to follow the LCA, Arjun and other Indian development.

One last thing, the CATOBAR is important which is why the Navy insists on it despite setback after setback at MoD which undoubtedly impacted the reputation of many great men serving the IN. Yet they persist. I don't think they are doing it because they are blind to the budget issues. As I said many times before, the Navy had never been a spendthrift service. They get the smallest piece of the pie but are most the indigenized of the services. Any new carrier will be built in India.

And white elephant? It is no more a white elephant than a space program. It will expand the capability and capacity of the nation.

I understand your points about the budget. India still has the third largest mil expediture in the world and we cannot afford a modern carrier? Perhap the nation can raise the defense percentage of GDP from 2.4 to 3 percent.

[andy B]

Rakesh I truly envy your ability to demonstrate a ridiculous level of patience time and again. I would certainly be happy to shout you a few drinks of your choice for this.

On this whole carriers boondoggle, I cant help but think of the Soviet Navy and their sub fleet of SSGN and SSN that were supposed to be the vanguard againt yankee carriers. Even if lizard can get 50% of those 15 planned that is still over 7 carriers. It is near impossible for us to go toe to toe with that. A strong SSN fleet underpinned by an equally significant (quantity and quality) fleet of different tier mpas, uavs and sub hunting whirly birds would be a strong asymmetric response. This can be assisted further with IAF assets deploying brahmos and other long range munitions. Then again what do I know....maybe chetak and others like yourself can enlighten further!

[chola]

.....Just the presence of one F-18SH will send all fifteen carrier battle groups of the PLAN scurrying back to their home base.

15 (!!!) 100k CATOBAR chini carriers sound a bit unrealistic. Chinese are not the Kree

Except for rajsunder making that statement, no one reputable anywhere claims that. But please continue to harp on that to make mockery of the CATOBAR discussion.

[andy B]

Chola saar I for one quite enjoy your updates on the chini mil thread as you said its important to know whats going on in their domain. If I may be candid I think Rakesh saar probably meant that those updates were being extrapolated for buying phoren maal. Just my two cents will go back to the cave now

[m_saini]

Except for rajsunder making that statement, no one reputable anywhere claims that. But please continue to harp on that to make mockery of the CATOBAR discussion.

sir we can't even design the catapult nor the fighters that can take off from it. Navy won't take the NLCA.

So what's the plan here? Beg the americans for the catapult design, then somehow squeeze the money out of taxpayer for SHs? And if all this goes well, do we then dream for an EMALS one because the steam catapult just doesn't cut anymore?

I'm not even an amateur (let alone an expert) in Navy matters but it's pretty clear that there is a fund crunch. In this environment, why is everyone dreaming of these gold plated things? Yeah, it'd be great to have them but where is the money coming from? I'd have loved if the Navy asked for money to develop a catapult in-house or to buy some NLCAs but the current CATOBAR dreams with SHs/Rafales just seem ridiculous. Why is everyone so eager to import all the things in the world just so we can play equal-equal with the chinese?

[Rakesh]

.....Just the presence of one F-18SH will send all fifteen carrier battle groups of the PLAN scurrying back to their home base.

15 (!!!) 100k CATOBAR chini carriers sound a bit unrealistic. Chinese are not the Kree

Don't anger the memory of Mao

[andy B]

I understand your points about the budget. India still has the third largest mil expediture in the world and we cannot afford a modern carrier? Perhap the nation can raise the defense percentage of GDP from 2.4 to 3 percent.

Chola saar in our case IMVHO this isnt so straightforward and wont translate directly into higher discretionary capex for platforms. We have a huge overhang and commitment from salaries and pensions. Whilst this is a function of large boots on the ground presence, at some point in the future I believe we have optimise the quantum of boots required which may alleviate pressure on funds and free up more for platforms.

[Rakesh]

Admiral Saar, don't worry I'll never post in that stupid thread again. I never posted chini propaganda bs just forward tweets from mainly German, French and Japanese watchers. I thought it was important to keep tabs on our adversary and that through a set of non-chini mostly non-American sources.

But if it is seen as nefarious with some sort of agenda bent on hooking us to phoren gear then screw it, the only reason I joined BR in the first place is to follow the LCA, Arjun and other Indian development.

Saar, I hope you (and others that posted in that thread) realize the damage you have done. Folks like rajsunder cannot sleep at night because of the ChiCom propaganda that you are reproducing from German, French and Japanese watchers. And that is extrapolated into elaborate Death Star-type scenarios (Star War fans will get the reference) like fifteen 100K aircraft carriers. Numbers mean squat if they cannot be exploited.

The US Navy is not dhoti shivering with one just one carrier battle group (i.e. Carrier Strike Group Five based at Yokosuka, Japan) and that naval base is a lot more geographically closer to China than the Indian Navy is. The US Navy's CSG 5 will handily trounce the PLAN in her own backyard. Granted the US Navy has an inordinate number of resources at its disposal compared to the Indian Navy, but that does not mean it is a losing scenario for India. Even Admiral Lanba has said that the Indian Navy has the upper hand in the Indian Ocean, but the dice is loaded in the PLAN's favour in the South China Sea. And he was the Navy Chief, who knows a lot more about the threat scenarios that the Indian Navy faces versus the PLAN.

One last thing, the CATOBAR is important which is why the Navy insists on it despite setback after setback at MoD which undoubtedly impacted the reputation of many great men serving the IN. Yet they persist.

CATOBAR is important. So are 4th gen platforms and 5th gen platforms for the Air Force. So are modern artillery and main battle tanks for the Army. So are newer basic infantry weapons for the troops. So are better air-to-air missiles for the Air Force and Naval Air Arm. The list goes on and on and on. It is the CDS' job to prioritize.

The goal is not unobtanium platforms, but quicker acquisition platforms. The Armed Forces need to ramp up the acquisitions of platforms and not waste precious CAPEX on programs that will take two decades for fruition. And even worse to bind that CAPEX for the next two decades. Perhaps down the road, when India hits the $5 trillion economy, then yes. But not now.

The goal - as Foreign Minister Jaishankar put it eloquently - is for India to engage the multi-polar world. The American NATO style strategy is done. Join the American camp and buy American for the rest of eternity is not something that India is interested in doing. Partnering with America is important, but so is partnering with my philanthropic friends from La France, with the evil Russians and whoever else India chooses to.

I don't think they are doing it because they are blind to the budget issues.

When senior admirals state that to deny the bells-and-whistles aircraft carrier, "...just for financial crunch is misplaced understanding..." is being blind to budget issues. These admirals are not living in reality. This is called living in la-la land. This is the net result of the Malabar exercises.

Get off the la-land bandwagon and wake up to reality.

As I said many times before, the Navy had never been a spendthrift service. They get the smallest piece of the pie but are most the indigenized of the services. Any new carrier will be built in India.

If the Navy wants to live up to the moniker of not being a spendthrift service, then they need to drop the CATOBAR idea (for now). But are they?

* Insisting on importing phoren carrier borne fighters, after acquiring 45 MiG-29s in the previous decade does not auger a good look for not being a being a spendthrift service. I do not want to put words into one of my fellow moderator's mouth...but he raised a very good point. We don't see Admiral Arun Prakash complaining anywhere about the incompatibility of the F-18SH or Rafale M operating aboard our carriers, but yet pulls up the Naval LCA Mk1 being not up to par. And I agree with the Admiral in principle. But is it hara-kiri to acquire a squadron's worth at least for LIFT duties?

* Insisting on acute submarine shortage, but then closing the door on additional Scorpenes does not auger a good look for not being a being a spendthrift service. Not a single P75I boat will enter service before 2030. Not one single boat. I will commission three Scorpenes - on top of the six being inducted right now - before you even *THINK* of 2030.

* Insisting on a CATOBAR aircraft carrier, which will take 20 years to commission when a STOBAR vessel can be acquired in half that time, does not auger a good look for not being a being a spendthrift service.

And white elephant? It is no more a white elephant than a space program. It will expand the capability and capacity of the nation.

It is a white elephant program, just like the foreign carrier borne aircraft program. INS Vishal will un-necessarily tie India's financial hands for the next two decades. This will be a financial nightmare and a lot of other modernization programs (mainly local programs) will suffer. Import programs will never suffer though. The arms lobbies in the MoD are very strong.

I understand your points about the budget. India still has the third largest mil expenditure in the world and we cannot afford a modern carrier?

Did you even read the cost breakdown in the previous page of this thread?
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=6308&p=2475799#p2475799

Perhaps the nation can raise the defense percentage of GDP from 2.4 to 3 percent.

And perhaps Katrina Kaif will agree to go out on a date with me. Perhaps we can have that Kwality ice cream, you know the ones with those wooden sticks embedded inside the ice cream when you open the cover? We can feed each other ice cream. How romantic that would be. Now that my fantasy is over, here is the percentage breakdown of defense spending in relation to GDP.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_ ... xpenditure

Good luck with that changing anytime soon. Every ministry is fighting for funds. Each and every ministry. Every ministry has a program. Not all will be satisfied. There are a lot of political agendas in every ministry. Every minister is fighting for relevance. Good luck!

[vera_k]

On this topic, does it fall to the Navy to outfit the unsinkable aircraft carriers (A&N / Lakshadeep)? Seems those would require a few hundred fighter aircraft and other assorted equipment all by themselves.

[chola]

Saar, I hope you (and others that posted in that thread) realize the damage you have done. Folks like rajsunder cannot sleep at night because of the ChiCom propaganda that you are reproducing from German, French and Japanese watchers. And that is extrapolated into elaborate Death Star-type scenarios (Star War fans will get the reference) like fifteen 100K aircraft carriers. Numbers mean squat if they cannot be exploited.

The US Navy is not dhoti shivering with one just one carrier battle group (i.e. Carrier Strike Group Five based at Yokosuka, Japan) and that naval base is a lot more geographically closer to China than the Indian Navy is. The US Navy's CSG 5 will handily trounce the PLAN in her own backyard. Granted the US Navy has an inordinate number of resources at its disposal compared to the Indian Navy, but that does not mean it is a losing scenario for India. Even Admiral Lanba has said that the Indian Navy has the upper hand in the Indian Ocean, but the dice is loaded in the PLAN's favour in the South China Sea. And he was the Navy Chief, who knows a lot more about the threat scenarios that the Indian Navy faces versus the PLAN.

The funny thing is in the chini mil thread, I had ALWAYS pushed the fact that Cheen, because of geography and geopolitics, can never put enough resources into our theaters and that we have overwhelming advantages, especially during Doklam. I got banned then for being a warmonger because I noted we hold 15 to 1 manpower advantages, had more aircraft and the whole Indian Navy versus 7 or so PLAN warships at any time in the IOR.

The idea of Indian superiority in our theaters is a constant refrain. The chini mil thread was meant to spur our commitment to the MIC. I want India to build own engines, CATOBARs and carrier jets yes. But I am sorry if that is taken as dhoti shivering so I'll desist. But both you and I know that my most insistent refrain is that India holds major advantages in any likely kinetic scenario with cheen and I had in fact advocated both during Doklam and the attack on 16 Bihar that we should have gone offensive based on those advantages.

I don't think they are doing it because they are blind to the budget issues.

When senior admirals state that to deny the bells-and-whistles aircraft carrier, "...just for financial crunch is misplaced understanding..." is being blind to budget issues. These admirals are not living in reality. This is called living in la-la land. This is the net result of the Malabar exercises.

Get off the la-land bandwagon and wake up to reality.

Nuts. The entire senior member of the IN is in "La Laland", right. Every staff member under Adm Lanba and now under Adm K Singh had gone hat-in-hand to the MoD asking for this carrier. They were shot down every time. You think they do not know that there are many like you who think they are in "la la land"? Yet they persist because they believe it is critical to the Navy.

And perhaps Katrina Kaif will agree to go out on a date with me. Perhaps we can have that Kwality ice cream, you know the ones with those wooden sticks embedded inside the ice cream when you open the cover? We can feed each other ice cream. How romantic that would be.

Why do you tempt me with the Katrina quip, Admiral? The last time I responded to a quote about a bollywood starlet, I got banned for month.

And yes, governments are known to increase the defense budget now and then.

[Rakesh]

Rakesh I truly envy your ability to demonstrate a ridiculous level of patience time and again. I would certainly be happy to shout you a few drinks of your choice for this.

I don't drink, but I will take you up on coffee.

On this whole carriers boondoggle, I cant help but think of the Soviet Navy and their sub fleet of SSGN and SSN that were supposed to be the vanguard againt yankee carriers. Even if lizard can get 50% of those 15 planned that is still over 7 carriers. It is near impossible for us to go toe to toe with that. A strong SSN fleet underpinned by an equally significant (quantity and quality) fleet of different tier mpas, uavs and sub hunting whirly birds would be a strong asymmetric response. This can be assisted further with IAF assets deploying brahmos and other long range munitions. Then again what do I know....maybe chetak and others like yourself can enlighten further!

You are correct. Counter to the PLAN is what you described above. The goal is not to match toe to toe with China. There is no money for that.

The goal is to give the ChiCom a moment of pause. How much H&D are they willing to lose to engage India in a war? Choking the Malacca Strait and the surrounding seas are crucial.

I am not in favour of F-18SH or Rafale M for the Navy, but we do need to get more Sea Guardian UAVs, additional P-8Is, additional MH-60Rs. Those are all valuable platforms that will serve the Navy admirably. A squadron of BrahMos equipped Rambhas (No 222 Squadron @ Thanjavur) is also a welcome addition. Those unsinkable carriers at the A&N Islands - that General Rawat talks about - need to be protected by a multiple layer of missile/air defence umbrella. These are far more wiser investments.

You don't counter an enemy SSN fleet, with your own SSN fleet. That is done by a carrier battle group. The same is true when your enemy has the numbers advantage in flat tops. To counter CATOBAR carriers, having your own CATOBAR is not the counter. So a robust SSN fleet is essential. A carrier battle group is an offensive weapon and not a defensive one.

[Rakesh]

The funny thing is in the chini mil thread, I had ALWAYS pushed the fact that Cheen, because of geography and geopolitics, can never put enough resources into our theaters and that we have overwhelming advantages, especially during Doklam. I got banned then for being a warmonger because I noted we hold 15 to 1 manpower advantages, had more aircraft and the whole Indian Navy versus 7 or so PLAN warships at any time in the IOR.

The idea of Indian superiority in our theaters is a constant refrain. The chini mil thread was meant to spur our commitment to the MIC. I want India to build own engines, CATOBARs and carrier jets yes. But I am sorry if that is taken as dhoti shivering so I'll desist. But both you and I know that my most insistent refrain is that India holds major advantages in any likely kinetic scenario with cheen.

If we have the advantage, then pray tell what is the need for this unobtanium carrier that will take 20 years for fruition? What is the need for a phoren carrier borne fighter? Please spare me the lesson on the industrial benefits. What is the tactical advantage of funding a program that will not exist for another two decades, when there is a conflict on the border right now. What does a vessel - that is expected to arrive in 20 years - do to deter the Chinese on the border right now? Or next year? Or in another 10 years?

You cannot have it both ways chola. Either there is a Chinese threat or there is not. Which is it?

Nuts. The entire senior member of the IN is in "La Laland", right. Every staff member under Adm Lanba and now under Adm K Singh had gone hat-in-hand to the MoD asking for this carrier. They were shot down every time. You think they do not know that there are many like you who think they are in "la la land"? Yet they persist because they believe it is critical to the Navy.

And then they will sit there only with that project. It is their choice. Either amend it or wait. Their call. But the CDS should not sanction this program when other programs are critically urgent and will come a lot quicker than 20 years. To expect this to pass muster, when money is at an all time low and when other programs are urgent is the definition of living in la-la land. What is critical to the Navy is not critical to the Air Force or to the Army and vice versa. You are failing to grasp that simple concept. The math does not work for the Navy, no matter how much you try and spin it chola. This is voodoo math, plain and simple.

And unfortunately for the Navy, this project's timeline and cost is significantly more compared to the number of projects in the IAF and Army. It is question of immediate returns for the investments made and not 20 years from now. That is how the CDS is looking at this. And lady luck is just not on the Navy's side. Same is true for the 114 MRFA program. Another boondoggle. It is for that very reason that Air HQ is taking second look at the program.

If Naval HQ keeps doing what they have been always doing on INS Vishal, then Naval HQ will always get the same answer from the MoD. As the saying goes, the definition of insanity is keep doing the same thing and expecting different results. I am saying the same thing, just not as eloquently as the saying does. La-La Land

Why do you tempt me with the Katrina quip, Admiral? The last time I responded to a quote about a bollywood starlet, I got banned for month.

And yes, governments are known to increase the defense budget now and then.

First you ask why I tempt you and then you make statements like governments are known to increase defence budgets now and then.

Okay

[rajsunder]

Are all 500 ships going to enter the Indian Ocean to teach us evil Indians a lesson?

How long do you think that will take? Are you aware of how busy the Straits of Malacca and other sea lanes in South East Asia are with commercial naval traffic?

If the PLAN is going to send their entire fleet to counter India, what will they do to engage Taiwan, Japan and the US 7th fleet?

2-3 full sized carriers with their support vessels stationed near the Straits at all times would be the plan of PLAN(this is what i would do). They can be supplied through their various railway lines that run from mainland to vietnam and thailand.
Their remaining fleet can take care of Japan, Taiwan and US.

Will India be sitting with her eyes closed when that massive naval flotilla enters the Indian Ocean? How does the IN manage to track Chinese subs that enter the Indian Ocean and then continue to track them, as they make their journey to Gwadar in Pak?

Please stop drinking the kook-aid from chola and others in the China military watch thread. It serves one purpose only. To buy phoren platforms that will tie India into a bind diplomatically and geopolitically.

one should understand the chineese way of thinking from their dozens of empty cities and 100% empty skyscrapers in their major cities. They will keep building and if any one thinks otherwise, he will repent the day the number of Full Sized carriers of PLAN goes in to double digits. Remember this, they will have a new full sized nuke carrier every five years.

The Indian super carrier program (INS Vishal) is designed to do just that. Buy a phoren carrier based aircraft with supporting equipment (EMALS) to deter the PLAN. What is one 65K aircraft carrier going to do against fifteen 100K aircraft carriers of the PlAN? Please think about what you are saying.

This is why you need to stop reading that thread. Only serves to scare monger and dhoti shiver. American SE fighter program failed, so now the new strategy to buy an American fighter is through the Navy. Just the presence of one F-18SH will send all fifteen carrier battle groups of the PLAN scurrying back to their home base.

No one is batting for foreign maal. I would be happy to see TEDBF flying off a full sized INS Vishaal's deck. And even if we start building IAC-2 today, by the time it comes off the production line, it will have its full 3-4 squadron strength TEDBF waiting to be launched from its decks.

[andy B]

I don't drink, but I will take you up on coffee.

Done saar!

You are correct. Counter to the PLAN is what you described above. The goal is not to match toe to toe with China. There is no money for that....

Rakesh the other thing that comes to mind the more one thinks about the carrier endeavor is the cost of setting up the surface and sub-surface component of the escort fleet required. We are barely (and by some parameters apparently short) able to commission new capital destroyer and FFG platforms let alone submarins which is a whole another issue. I do understand that of the 3 carriers one would be in refit and another in service. However we would still need to keep sufficient escort hulls in case of surge scenarios.

[Rakesh]

2-3 full sized carriers with their support vessels stationed near the Straits at all times would be the plan of PLAN(this is what i would do). They can be supplied through their various railway lines that run from mainland to vietnam and thailand

Saar, this is the Malacca Strait below (that red arrow). Please show me where the PLAN expects to station not one, but 2 - 3 carrier battle groups. You are aware that Vietnam and China don't exactly get along?

At the southern part of the Malacca Strait lies Singapore and Malaysia. To the east of the Strait lies Indonesia and Brunei. If you go to Google Maps (https://www.google.ca/maps/place/Malacc ... 99.5450974), it will be a lot more clearer. Where do you expect the PLAN to station these carrier battle groups, when not at sea? Which of these countries will permit China to host their fleet? And assuming they do, the USN will just watch idly by? Such a move is more of a threat to the US 7th Fleet than to the Indian Navy.

Cambodia and Thailand are possibilities, but the PLAN still has to navigate through the Malacca Strait to enter the Bay of Bengal. Waiting at the northern tip of the Malacca Strait lies Burma, which just got an Indian Kilo Class boat. Why do you think the Indian Navy handed over a boat to the Myanmar Navy for? To the west of the Burma lies the A&N Islands. It will not be a cake walk for PLAN carrier battle groups to enter India's backyard.

As I mentioned earlier, the goal is to give the ChiCom a moment of pause. How much H&D are they willing to lose to engage India in a war? Choking the Malacca Strait and the surrounding seas are crucial. SSNs are vital for that. And as andy b pointed out ---> UAVs, MPAs, BrahMos-equipped Rambhas, etc are equally important.

one should understand the chineese way of thinking from their dozens of empty cities and 100% empty skyscrapers in their major cities. They will keep building and if any one thinks otherwise, he will repent the day the number of Full Sized carriers of PLAN goes in to double digits. Remember this, they will have a new full sized nuke carrier every five years.

Why did you stop at one every five years? You should have said every year. How do you expect the PLAN to induct fifteen 100K aircraft carriers otherwise?

No one is batting for foreign maal. I would be happy to see TEDBF flying off a full sized INS Vishaal's deck. And even if we start building IAC-2 today, by the time it comes off the production line, it will have its full 3-4 squadron strength TEDBF waiting to be launched from its decks.

Saar, IAC-2 will take 20 years. Just saying. A lot of water will flow under the bridge in 20 years. A lot of geopolitical events will take place in 20 years. Perhaps (a long shot), there may not even be a Communist China in 20 years or perhaps ChiCom will be even more belligerent in 20 years. If it is the latter, what is one 65,000 ton CATOBAR + Nuclear Power + EMALS carrier going to do against the full sized carriers of PLAN which will be in double digits?

[ManuJ]

The discussion is getting muddled because there is no clarity on what is being proposed and opposed.

Without getting into discussions on CATOBAR, propulsion, size and even on the number of carriers, the central question is whether the Navy's plan for a carrier-led naval force is reasonable and whether that's where the future lies.

Because if the argument is that we can't afford more carriers and will be better off buying submarines and minesweepers instead, and if we also buy the argument (given by CDS amongst others) that islands as unsinkable carriers are much more viable and economical and that's where our future efforts should be focused, then I would question the need to have any carriers at all.

Why spend so much money and resources on something that is a dead end? That seems counter-intuitive and surefire way of setting ourselves up for failure. Not to mention a huge waste of resources, man-power, training, etc. Rather than getting trapped into the fallacy of sunk cost, should we cut our losses, send the existing carriers to junkyards, and refocus the navy on what we do think the future should be? And that also brings up the question of what the future Indian navy should look like.

However, if we do think that a carrier-led navy is a sound plan for the future, then we can focus the discussion on what's the best to get to that future, given resource constraints and competing interests.

[Rakesh]

Because Manu Saar, the line of thinking is that buying a CATOBAR aircraft carrier (with F-18SH) is going the scare the living daylights out of the PLAN. Just one 65K carrier is going to do that. But the caveat is that the vessel must have CATOBAR and must have EMALS. Nuclear power is a definite plus. But another STOBAR carrier is going to translate into a 100% loss for India.

And in a war of high attrition - when we lose F-18s like mosquitos - we can always borrow some from the US Navy. Very simple sir. You are not putting your thinking cap on. Buy American and you will have salvation. It is all in the agreement when we acquire F-18s from Boeing. Wink, Wink. The Tier 1 industry experts on BRF have all gamed this out.

Ashton Carter and the the late Manohar Parrikar had it all planned out for the IAF and the Indian Navy in 2016. 200 F-16s and 100 F-18s for the IAF and another 57 F-18s for the Indian Navy. Then Donald Trump won the 2016 election and Make America Great Again (MAGA) ruined those plans.

Have you not seen the trailer for Top Gun, Part Two? Xi plays it on repeat in his bedroom, all the while wearing a CHINA (Come Home I Need Affection) hat. The F-18SH saves the day.

[chola]

^^^ LOL. Admiral, you are certainly entertaining. Even when you are ridiculing everything on the other side of the argument. (In the olden days, I would have tried matching your wit but I have the Damocles Sword of a permanent ban hanging over me.)

No, no one is saying that the one 65K ton CATOBAR will win everything. It will though keep the carrier arm relevant. Things are not as ludicrous as you think and the Navy brass is not as delusional as you make them out to be.

At any rate, I will be happy for a third carrier of any sort being approved soon because whatever it is, it will take a decade or more. (And 20 years for a CATOBAR is extrapolating the worse case scenario and adding a few years on top. It could be 12 or 15 years since we've more experience and eco system set up after Vikrant.)

[ManuJ]

So Rakesh and chola, am I correct in understanding that you're both in favor of the 3rd carrier and the long-term vision of Indian Navy as a carrier-led force?

The differences in opinions seem to be whether the new carrier should be closer to the current 45K one or closer to US Navy's mega-carriers.

[rajsunder]

Saar, this is the Malacca Strait below (that red arrow). Please show me where the PLAN expects to station not one, but 2 - 3 carrier battle groups. You are aware that Vietnam and China don't exactly get along?

At the southern part of the Malacca Strait lies Singapore and Malaysia. To the east of the Strait lies Indonesia and Brunei. If you go to Google Maps (https://www.google.ca/maps/place/Malacc ... 99.5450974), it will be a lot more clearer. Where do you expect the PLAN to station these carrier battle groups, when not at sea? Which of these countries will permit China to host their fleet? And assuming they do, the USN will just watch idly by? Such a move is more of a threat to the US 7th Fleet than to the Indian Navy.

PLAN does not need to be exactly at the entrance of the Strait. They can also station in Thailand on the Andaman Sea side.

Cambodia and Thailand are possibilities, but the PLAN still has to navigate through the Malacca Strait to enter the Bay of Bengal. Waiting at the northern tip of the Malacca Strait lies Burma, which just got an Indian Kilo Class boat. Why do you think the Indian Navy handed over a boat to the Myanmar Navy for? To the west of the Burma lies the A&N Islands. It will not be a cake walk for PLAN carrier battle groups to enter India's backyard.

The coco islands of burma are still occupied by chineese listening posts and even after we gifted Burma a sub, they did not evict chineese from that island.

As I mentioned earlier, the goal is to give the ChiCom a moment of pause. How much H&D are they willing to lose to engage India in a war? Choking the Malacca Strait and the surrounding seas are crucial. SSNs are vital for that. And as andy b pointed out ---> UAVs, MPAs, BrahMos-equipped Rambhas, etc are equally important.

Yes, China is a ten headed monster. we need all the firepower we can get.

Why did you stop at one every five years? You should have said every year. How do you expect the PLAN to induct fifteen 100K aircraft carriers otherwise?

They might have 2 lines of production. I believe that they have two shipyards.

Saar, IAC-2 will take 20 years. Just saying. A lot of water will flow under the bridge in 20 years. A lot of geopolitical events will take place in 20 years. Perhaps (a long shot), there may not even be a Communist China in 20 years or perhaps ChiCom will be even more belligerent in 20 years. If it is the latter, what is one 65,000 ton CATOBAR + Nuclear Power + EMALS carrier going to do against the full sized carriers of PLAN which will be in double digits?

now you see my point, that is why I am asking for five 85k ton+ sized carriers for Indian Navy.

[Rakesh]

So Rakesh and chola, am I correct in understanding that you're both in favor of the 3rd carrier and the long-term vision of Indian Navy as a carrier-led force?

The differences in opinions seem to be whether the new carrier should be closer to the current 45K one or closer to US Navy's mega-carriers.

No problems with carriers, CATOBAR or STOBAR, 45K or 65K or whatever other size. The issue is funding and time. It is that plain and simple Manu. Everything else is secondary.

[Rakesh]

No, no one is saying that the one 65K ton CATOBAR will win everything. It will though keep the carrier arm relevant.

So the upcoming Vikrant will not? The STOBAR-equipped Vikramaditya is that irrelevant that it participates in international naval exercises like Malabar 2020? The Royal Navy's Queen Elizabeth Class must also be irrelevant onlee. Indian Naval carrier operations has been relevant since the late 1950s with STOBAR carriers. CATOBAR is not this divine & magical solution that you are portraying it to be.

Things are not as ludicrous as you think and the Navy brass is not as delusional as you make them out to be.

The proof is in the pudding. When the CDS itself is questioning the relevancy of this program, I have nothing more to add.

At any rate, I will be happy for a third carrier of any sort being approved soon because whatever it is, it will take a decade or more. (And 20 years for a CATOBAR is extrapolating the worse case scenario and adding a few years on top. It could be 12 or 15 years since we've more experience and eco system set up after Vikrant.)

Indian Navy will push ahead with plan for 3rd aircraft carrier despite CDS’ reservations
https://theprint.in/defence/indian-navy ... ns/368930/

“The third aircraft carrier is an operational necessity,” a source in the Navy said. “It is not that an aircraft carrier can be bought off the shelf. Even if all permissions are given today, it will take 15 years for the carrier to be inducted.”

Naval vessels built in Indian shipyard rarely, if ever, arrive on time. The Delhi Class, Kolkata Class, Kalvari Class, Brahmaputra Class, Kamorta Class, the new Vikrant are just a few programs that have shared long delays. If the Navy itself is stating that they are envisioning a 15 year build time, it will easily translate into a 20 year project. These are Indian shipyards after all.

The eco-system that you are referring to can be best exploited by building a follow on vessel, but the Navy wants unobtanium. After the USS Nimitz, the first of the Nimitz Class aircraft carriers, why did the US Navy not go straight to the USS Gerald Ford? The latter is any day more capable than her predecessor. Why waste money on 9 follow-on Nimitz Class carriers?

And after USS Gerald Ford, why build John F Kennedy, Enterprise and Doris Miller? After Gerald Ford, the US Govt should jump straight to spaceship onlee powered by dilithium crystals and armed with photon torpedoes & phasers

The US Navy did the foolish thing by ordering additional Nimitz Class and Gerald Ford Class carriers. The Indian Navy is doing the wise and thoughtful thing by adopting a brand new & complex design, right after building the Vikrant.

[hnair]

What is the objective of the third carrier other than provide backup for the other two? Then why ask for 65k with Car Nicobar launch capability etc?

If China has 15 carriers with USN type land attack capabilities, where are the allied bases from which these will operate from ? Or are they planning to collide with each other in South China Sea and convert it into Silk Board Junction?

And wouldn’t it be easier for launching a few more S4 baby-boomer with 24 conventional k-15 each that has been repurposed to do carrier killer role at hypersonic speed than send a few lumbering carrier based fighters with poor maritime strike options to re-enact last century naval battles like Midway ? Such things aided by a decent SSN fleet will make sure the Cheeni aircraft carriers will be kept far beyond range of its land attack crafts.

Unless IN have illusions of liberating Chief Mkongo’s long suffering peoples from yevil clutches of Maoist influenced King Mbosi in Southern parts of Africa, why do we need a land attack carrier?

[Rakesh]

Tauba, Tauba hnair saar. You are now committing soosai in this thread by using logic.

You say, "Decent SSN fleet to keep Cheeni aircraft carriers away?" I pooh-pooh that idea.

And who uses ballistic missiles to defeat aircraft carriers? Oh wait, what is the Dong-Feng 21 meant for then? But since that is Chinese, it is okay. We SDREs must only invest in CATOBAR with F-18SH or Rafale M. We must stay "relevant" in carrier operations

[Rakesh]

PLAN does not need to be exactly at the entrance of the Strait. They can also station in Thailand on the Andaman Sea side.

There are two naval stations that Thailand has, that faces the Andaman Sea. They are;

1) The Phang Nga Naval Base which is also home to the Royal Thai Navy's Third Fleet Sea Turtle Nursery. Perhaps the Chinese can train Sea Turtles to spy on the Indian Navy. Outfit her with GoPro 4K cameras and all that wonderful stuff.

2) The 3 Third Naval Area Command HQ directly south of the Phang Nga Naval Base.

And by the way, both those bases are housed exactly at the entrance of the strait. Please look them up on Google Maps. I urge the PLAN to station 2 - 3 carrier battle groups over there. Target rich environment for the Indian Navy. And the PLAN will have to fund the development of infrastructure to house 2 - 3 carrier battle groups. Thailand is too broke to do that for the PLAN.

The coco islands of burma are still occupied by chineese listening posts and even after we gifted Burma a sub, they did not evict chineese from that island.

The Great Coco Island was reportedly leased to China to establish a SIGINT station. That reportedly occurred in the early 90s. INS Sindhuvir (now UMS Minye Theinkhathu) was handed over to Burma in March 2020, this year. Do you have any new info in 2020 that the Great Coco Island is still used as a SIGINT station? Why would the Indian Govt hand over a submarine in 2020, to a nation that helps our enemy? Very puzzling onlee. We Indians are so simple minded.

By the way, the Great Coco Island is 10+ km in length and around 2 km in width. Perfect to house 2 - 3 PLAN carrier battle groups. Fantastic move by the PLAN if they do it. Really well thought out.

Yes, China is a ten headed monster. we need all the firepower we can get.

Yes, yes. So true.

They might have 2 lines of production. I believe that they have two shipyards.

Incorrect Sir. They have the following;

* China State Shipbuilding Corporation
* China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation
* Hudong-Zhonghua Shipbuilding
* Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Company
* Guangzhou Shipyard International
* Jiangnan Shipyard
* Yantai Raffles Shipyard

Each of them can produce one 100K aircraft carrier per year.

Production happens at rapid speed due to 24/7 operations, divided into four shifts.

So your theory of fifteen 100K aircraft carriers is realistic.

now you see my point, that is why I am asking for five 85k ton+ sized carriers for Indian Navy.

I see and I believe.

[AkshaySG]

now you see my point, that is why I am asking for five 85k ton+ sized carriers for Indian Navy.

LOL, The entire air force barely has enough 4th gen fighters to arm 5 supercarriers....

On another thread there is argument about how ~200 Million for AK203 is too much and how the rifle program has stalled again. One thread has discussions about whether we will be able to arm P-15, P-17 and Scorpene subs with adequate missiles. The Army is scraping by with 50+ yr old helos and 30 year old BMPs. And then there is this thread where users are casually talking about a $10 Billion + outlay like its a pint of milk.

The Navy should focus on getting the rest of its equipment (subs, helos, destroyers, shipbuilding facilities) on par with latest tech before wanting to ride on another white elephant. And if China's incursion into IOR is so worrying, then station a squadron or two in Andaman and use the P8's and subs to perform regular patrols in the region.

[SSridhar]

And who uses ballistic missiles to defeat aircraft carriers? Oh wait, what is the Dong-Feng 21 meant for then? But since that is Chinese, it is okay.

Certainly have heard that argument before in these threads.

[titash]

Admiral & Chola-ji,

I say we take a leaf out of the Paki handbook.

They've successfully deterred a multi-fold sized economy and armed forces (namely India) with low grade nukes. They continue to illegally occupy our lands and push terrorists across our borders every day.

What's preventing us from investing in a large inventory of nuclear tipped ASBMs, nuclear tipped torpedoes, nuclear tipped SMART/BrahMos? The existence of these weapons offers sub-strategic escalation management, and the presence of PLAN's 15 odd 100K ton EMALS carriers will mean nothing at that point.

The USN with all it's power and might did not seek to enter into a conflict with the Soviet Navy in the 50s or 60s or 70s for precisely this reason.

Go nuclear with tactical weapons. It's what the big boys do. It's far cheaper than 65K ton carriers and 200 MMRCAs

[Venky]

The last major carrier based success was in Falklands where the UK was able to project airpower n win back a fishing port. The US carrier fleet supported by allies in the mideast has proved a platform for supporting ground troops n surprise strikes against tier3 opposition. With LR missiles n small nuclear weapons it does appear the role of the aircraft carrier is very diminished and only to project power to tier3 opposition. Let others break the bank in building more ACs.

[KrishnaK]

1. Commercial shipping uses the straits of malacca because that's the shortest route. A naval force need not necessarily use the same logic.
2. Once they're in, nuclear subs and MPAs are not an answer to carriers anymore than ballistic missiles are. The reason, as far as I understand is that, something that can move at 50kms per hour can be anywhere in a circle of area 7853.98 km^2 from the point of detection in 1 hour. In 3 that number goes up to 70685.83 km^2.
3. Soviet subs never deterred the American Navy. They held western Europe under threat instead. Our capacity to hold China under threat is worse than what Pakistan has against us.
4. The days of India being equidistant from the US and other powers are long gone. A decade ago, no one could've guessed that India would all signed all of the foundational agreements. Post-Galwan clash, Indian Navy quietly deployed warship in South China

[Rakesh]

LOL, The entire air force barely has enough 4th gen fighters to arm 5 supercarriers....

Sometimes you have to humour people Saar

On another thread there is argument about how ~200 Million for AK203 is too much and how the rifle program has stalled again. One thread has discussions about whether we will be able to arm P-15, P-17 and Scorpene subs with adequate missiles. The Army is scraping by with 50+ yr old helos and 30 year old BMPs. And then there is this thread where users are casually talking about a $10 Billion + outlay like its a pint of milk.

Well said, however it is falling on deaf ears at Naval HQ.

Navy wants rogan ghosh with garlic naan, when they can barely afford dal roti. The irony is rogan ghosh with garlic naan will come only in 15 years, as per the navy's own admission. There is an eyeball confrontation right now at the border, but will wait for 15+ years for a white elephant. How is ordering this vessel going to deter the Chinese today? No answer for that.

And as for users in this thread arguing for $10 billion for an aircraft carrier, this eager push for a CATOBAR vessel is solely for an opportunity for an American bird to enter service in India. You never read any of these users talk about the shortage of equipment in the other areas as you have mentioned above. The SE fighter thread was the same story. The other areas can suffer, but American fighter must come. Otherwise India will lose onlee.

The Navy should focus on getting the rest of its equipment (subs, helos, destroyers, shipbuilding facilities) on par with latest tech before wanting to ride on another white elephant. And if China's incursion into IOR is so worrying then station a squadron or two in Andaman and use the P8's and subs to perform regular patrols in the region.

Those are in the works, but would like to see more orders of them.

[Rakesh]

What's preventing us from investing in a large inventory of nuclear tipped ASBMs, nuclear tipped torpedoes, nuclear tipped SMART/BrahMos? The existence of these weapons offers sub-strategic escalation management, and the presence of PLAN's 15 odd 100K ton EMALS carriers will mean nothing at that point.

The USN with all it's power and might did not seek to enter into a conflict with the Soviet Navy in the 50s or 60s or 70s for precisely this reason.

Go nuclear with tactical weapons. It's what the big boys do. It's far cheaper than 65K ton carriers and 200 MMRCAs

Titash-ji, with all the alphabet agreements we have signed with the US....India now has access to what the PLAN is doing via surveillance.

PLAN carriers are constantly monitored by the USN. The US 7th fleet based at Yokosuka is not based there for tourist attraction. That data is being shared with the Indian Navy. And those pair of Sea Guardian UAVs will just be the beginning of a larger order of those UAVs. PLAN carriers will find it hard pressed to stay out of America's all seeing eye.

The options are varied for the Indian Navy on how to engage (i.e. BrahMos-equipped Rambhas, the SMART torpedo system recently tested (which could possibly be modified for carriers) by DRDO, submarine launched missiles, a future ASBM like the DF-21...the options are many).

Why is the IAF bothering with the investment in modifying the Su-30MKI to arm her with the BrahMos? What is the point of raising No 222 Tigersharks Squadron and station that unit at Thanjavur in the south, when the IAF can easily retire a MiG-21 unit on the western sector? Why waste money on P-8Is and Harpoons, if they are not effective? Why invest in MH-60R? Spend all the money on a 65,000 ton CATOBAR carrier, with EMALS and nuclear power and 57 F-18SHs. That one carrier will control the entire Indian Ocean and influence events from Alaska to the South China Sea. This is what we are being told on this thread.

India does not need to engage a PLAN carrier group with her own, when she has better options available today. And in 15 years - with the money saved on this financial white elephant called INS Vishal and invested in other programs - the counter to PLAN carriers will be even more robust. And if the PLAN is prepared to lose her H&D, then let them attempt to bring their battle group into the Indian Ocean. Bring it. It's their call.

"We can match what forces China can bring to bear in the IOR." - Admiral Sunil Lanba

[sudeepj]

1. Anything underwater has an inherent limitation on how much data it can get. A data rate of 50 baud is extremely high for underwater platforms! Therefore, a question of 'sensor fused' warfare from an underwater system is out of the question.

2. If an SSN is at a particular point in the ocean, just how large an area can it influence directly? I submit, not more than a bubble of 40-50 nautical miles around it. It can influence a much larger area through a 'force in being' concept, and it will force the enemy to account for it, but if the enemy is prepared to take losses/accept certain attrition ratios and fight on, it cant.

3. Compare this to the bubble around INS Vikad or INS Vikrant. The AEW chopper provides a 150 nautical mile view around it. The Migs will hammer anything in that radius easily. Furthermore, because the carrier can be a sensor fused platform, because of the Migs range, and the range of the missile they can carry, the actual bubble of influence is much more. E.g. Your carrier can receive an update from a satellite and be informed of an enemy platform 300 nautical miles away, and launch its aircraft to counter it. Against static targets such as ports, your range is that much more!

4. Now, consider the vulnerability of the platform. The carrier is not unique in being vulnerable to hypersonic or ballistic missiles. The recent test of SMART missile should have clarified that. However, a CBG can mount Anti Ballistic Missiles and radars. This is not a notional capability and an SM3 has shot down numerous ballistic missiles, even a satellite! A sub has no such option and is even more of a dead duck in the water.

A DE sub can ramp power instantaneously, but an SSN will need a few to several minutes at least. Consider, we dont have the best reactors, so this estimate is a really conservative estimate. The first indication that an SSN will have a SMART is a splash, now if it wants to outrun the torp, it needs several minutes to ramp up power! Not a very happy situation. The only thing the sub has going for it is stealth. Once that is gone, the sub is a goner.

5. The carrier can launch Anti sub choppers to sweep the ocean hundreds of miles away from it, and then prosecute the sub using the choppers organic capability and SMART like missile torpedos.

6. Finally, consider how your surface fleet minus a carrier will perform against a CBG. Your surface fleet wont have the sensors to be able to see the carrier while the CBG has both sensors and shooters that outrange your fleet. The fleet without the carrier will lose 10 out of 10 times.

7. A carrier is the 'lynch-pin' that allows you to use the rest of your fleet in a concentrated and coherent manner instead of spreading it around in penny packets. A Kolkata class alone, or a Kolkata grouped with another few frigates and corvettes is still useless against a CBG or against land based air power. However, two Kolkatas, a couple of Anti submarine covettes, a fleet tanker, and a carrier are a formidable force indeed. They can outrun all subs, they can shoot down ballistic or cruise missiles, they have long range organic sensors and shooters, they can take in a lot of information from the rest of the sensors available to you.


A sub can do **nothing** of the sort.

A sub has a place in a navy. But its no substitute for a CBG. Many of the things subs are useful for, such as first strikes on ports, or lurking around sea lanes, will be relegated to autonomous unmanned underwater vehicles in the future. In fact, I have a suspicion that subs are uniquely suited to this, because of the very small amount of information it has available to it. Given a platform lasts well beyond 30-40 years in Indian service, a Carrier is a much safer bet for your ruppees. Just my two cents.

Further more, a large carrier, with a fixed wing AEW, drones, and cat launched fully loaded planes is at least a few times more effective than a carrier that can launch only helicopter based AEW.

[Philip]

The striking range of even a modest non- AIP Kilo boat is 2500 km. using Kalibir missiles! That range is being further extended to 4000km. for the future. I mentioned the massive missile capacity of US Ohio and Ru Oscar class N-boats,both in excess of 120 to 140 cruise missiles of Tomahawk/Kalibir class. The survivability of the sub has been found in exercises in the USN itself,several times more than that of a CV, why the voice is steadily getting louder in the USN for building light carriers to complement the supercarriers to deal with crises requiring lesser air power at sea .

The IN top brass is obsessed with a wet dream of emulating the USN and "keeping up with the Chins" carrierwise, when we have neither the moolah nor manpower to do so. The sub fleet languishes with only 2+ new subs, 4 more in the pipeline, non- AIP Scorpenes to boot when the Pakis have been operating AIP Agostas and 8 AIP Yuans in the pipeline.Not to mention the 80 subs that the Chins will possess within this decade.

The CDS very rightly spoke of alternatives ( as we on BRF have), India' s unsinkable carriers,our vast mainland plus island territories which can be far easier leveraged into providing bases for LRMP and supersonic maritime strike birds, /plus IAF BMos equipped Sukhoi MKIs. Yet despite the sub situ, lack of MCMs, surface combatants,ASW and LUH helos in the hundreds, sonars for capital ships,torpedoes for subs, the IN like a blinkered nag can see only the letters CV in front of its nose,refusing to see that there are several assymetric maritime warfare options available.

Recent US studies of the ability of the PLAN to dominate the IOR have come to the conclusion that it for some time cannot do so having limited logistic bases in the IOR plus few logistoc fleet support auxiliaries,essential for CBG ops.In fact thf PRC has itself developed anti- CV BMs aimed at countering the US's large CV fleet. Even if some money was available it would be more prudent for the IN to operste several smaller flat-tops than a single CBG.A stretched sister ship of the IAC-1 would be more achievable from both the technical and financial aspects.Along with at least 2 multi-role flat-top amphibs, plus subs and maritime strike aircraft,be v.well poised to the PLAN in the ICS and beyond!

[m_saini]

The IN top brass is obsessed with a wet dream of emulating the USN and "keeping up with the Chins" carrierwise, when we have neither the moolah nor manpower to do so.

+1008

[Rakesh]

Saini Saar, I can't believe I am agreeing with Philip...but he is 100% correct in that statement above. Indeed a +1008 to him!

The IN needs to stop emulating and be realistic. This kind of attitude is only delaying their own modernization.