2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Locked
chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 32468
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

vijayk wrote:
ManSingh wrote:

Delhi Police instead offered Burari open jail - hardly a place that befits our image as the world's largest democracy. We can do better on both terms - managing dissent and better laws.
Till now, no one from farmer's side is willing to list out which clauses or part of the laws is their issue or what protections they want.

The only mantra that comes from them is REPEAL REPEAL REPEAL all laws and go home.

They need to get someone who can articulate their issues ... may be they should hire you. Good points on arbitration etc. I am sure Govt. will be willing to listen to them.
this is not dissent but ANARCHY just like shaheenbagh was. Don't mistake it for anything else.

even the ropers are asking for repeal while we are "trying" to explain the benefits to them.

Exactly as is happening now. The more the govt tries to explain the less they pretend to understand but they are continually pushing their core demand of repeal.

how is this any different from shaheenbagh. they are using the very same modus operandi, the exact same support system and their leaders all have the same shaheenbagh mentality.

If this continues unchecked, the same pattern of street violence and killings will follow, maybe on the 26th. :mrgreen:

It is the people who can and are articulating their issues and incidentally these are the very same guys who are instigating the "farmers" and they are also the ones who are pushing them to demand repeal of all the farm laws.

Everyone else has understood the nitty gritties and the non negiotiable crux of the matter but sadly, it appears that we have not.
Last edited by chetak on 09 Jan 2021 20:48, edited 1 time in total.
ManSingh
BRFite
Posts: 312
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 17:30

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ManSingh »

Kaivalya wrote:
ManSingh wrote:
Read what a filibuster means in the us senate. An example:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/dems ... ?_amp=true

Also check what a hold or secret hold by one senator does to a bill. H1b guys will know this from s.386.

Like I said - you are dreaming something that doesn't exist. Please read your article in completion :
Manchin, McCaskill and Capito have the support of other Democratic senators from states with contingents of miners impacted, including Sens. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Mark Warner of Virginia. Those six senators could join forces to prevent a final vote on the continuing resolution.

US senate cloture rule requires 60 senators to stop debate. You are misinterpreting a single senator's power and changing the meaning of democracy to suit your need
Nope. I know what I am saying.

A filibuster is a way for a senator to block legislative agenda which includes bills, appointments etc. A cloture is a process to over ride a filibuster which requires 60 senators to end the debate and hence the filibuster. A cloture is not used majority of the times a legislation is blocked in senate either via holds/secret holds or filibusters. A senate acts to work beyond politics, be bipartisan and block populist bills passed by the us house. So a hold/filibuster is generally respected.

Google how one senator Dick Durbin of chicago blocked s.386 green card bill for close to an year. This would have helped Indians on h1b have a much faster path to green cards. The bill was passed by a house majority and possibly had the numbers to make it through senate. It had also come out of the senate committee. The reason for blocking was the impact of h1b employees in chicago specifically abbott laboratories that fired local employees in favor of lower wage h1b employees a few years back. He could block the legislation as long as he wanted and ultimately killed the bill.

This was what the Rajya Sabha was meant to be versus a parking spot for those who can not win elections as it is now.
darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4018
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

If I were a journalist covering this protests, I would have started asking opinion of this people on all sorts of nationalistic topics. Ranging from perfidies of nehru clans to Hindu genocides to chinese to pakistanis to UCC to rohingyas to bangladeshis to IWT.
Viral Video shows protesting farmer hail Pakistan PM, call Narendra Modi a dog
https://www.opindia.com/2021/01/protest ... odi-a-dog/
darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4018
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

Centre sanctions Indistrial Disputes Gujarat amendmen Bill
https://www.deshgujarat.com/2021/01/09/ ... dmen-bill/
...
As per the Industrial Disputes Act, 1947, establishments having 100 or more workers were required to seek prior permission of the state government before effecting layoff, retrenchment, or closure. However, the number of workers has been increased to 300 in The Industrial Disputes (Gujarat Amendment) Bill, 2020.

Similarly, in case of layoffs, workers were so far required to be paid compensation amounting to 15 days salary for every year of service. Now, workers will also be required to be paid an amount equivalent to the average pay of the last three months as compensation. Similarly, workers were required to be given three months’ notice or wages for the notice period before retrenchment. Now, workers can be retrenched only after giving them three months’ notice.

Vipul Mittra said that the exemptions are mainly aimed at reducing the compliance burden on industries which will help the state attract new industries and investments to create more employment opportunities.

Gujarat government has planned a series of measures to boost industrial activity, while also protecting workers’ interests. More ordinances were passed in assembly on the Contract Labour Act, Factory Act & Child act are expected to be approved soon.
...
ManSingh
BRFite
Posts: 312
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 17:30

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ManSingh »

a_bharat wrote:
ManSingh wrote: Read what a filibuster means in the us senate. An example:
So, if there is no filibuster mechanism, it is ok to block the highways for months by these Hindu hating mobs (and a few Hindu sell-outs with ulterior motives).

It is obvious to most folks on this forum that there is no merit to these so called "farmer protests". By this I don't mean farmers don't have problems. They do, but these protests are just a mask for something else.

If I were to take you as a representative moderate Sikh, I have to conclude that the Sikh community have become too emotional (with their hate for the current government) and have stopped being rational.
Firstly its not a sikh protest. There is equal involvement from Haryana and some involvement from western u.p., northern rajasthan and parts of uttarakhand too. Rakesh Tikait is a farm leader from western u.p. and not punjab. The reason why these states are protesting is because these benefitted the most from APMC and its monopolies.

I could counter argue that the hate received by the current protests is because of who is in power i.e. a popular government. If the same protests had happened during the upa regime, the same protestors would be called saviors standing up to a tyrant anti-hindu regime. The end result of these legislations would have been the same even if these laws were passed in upa times. Poor communication and ramming through legislation has caused anxiety ( justified or unjustified ). Some demands might be unjustified like asking for MSP guarantees or repeal of these laws. But none of these prevent the govt from presenting alternate proposals. Both agri experts and the supreme court have suggested ways to proceed.
chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 32468
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

darshan wrote:If I were a journalist covering this protests, I would have started asking opinion of this people on all sorts of nationalistic topics. Ranging from perfidies of nehru clans to Hindu genocides to chinese to pakistanis to UCC to rohingyas to bangladeshis to IWT.
Viral Video shows protesting farmer hail Pakistan PM, call Narendra Modi a dog
https://www.opindia.com/2021/01/protest ... odi-a-dog/
the journos and presstitutes have all been co opted. That is the nature of the game that the BIF is playing.

If one in number arnab goswami cannot be protected from a hijda govt in MAH, what can you expect in terms of support from the media. :mrgreen:
darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4018
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

RSS briefing on conclusion of three-day Samanvay meet in Gandhinagar
https://www.deshgujarat.com/2021/01/07/ ... ndhinagar/
...
Official note:

Sankalp for support of more than 10 crore families from 5 lacs villages for construction of Shree Ram Mandir

Despite Corona pandemic Atmanirbharta-Swarojgar (self-employment)- KaushalVikas (Skill Development) will be a movement by the society.

Appropriate arrangements for education of the children shall be made through the medium of Mohalla School.

All will work with priority to SamrasSamaj (Cohesive society), SamskaritParivar (well cultured family)
A three days’ Akhil Bharatiya Samanvay Bethak of Karyakartas of RashtriyaSwayamsevak Sangh and different organizations was convened from 5th to 7th January 2021 at Karnavari University, Gandhinagar. On this occasion, addressing the representatives of print as well as electronic media at the press conference, Dr. Krishna Gopalji, Sahsarkaryavahji of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh said :

During this meeting, information was mutually shared about the work of social services done by different Sangathan (organization) wherever required during the Corona period.Students could not pursue their studies as schools were closed during the Corona period and therefore an appropriate arrangement for their education was made.Vidyarthi Parishad made an arrangement for the studies of the students at about 10,000 places in the country through online mode and Mohalla Pathshala. Teachers also devoted their extra time for the purpose. Besides this, thousands of Karyakartas did the work of imparting education to the students in small groups. In this way taking the national crisis as an opportunity, all organizations worked with the society shoulder to shoulder. It is a matter of pleasure that, the unity which the society has shown in the whole country is unique in the world.

During the present time our karyakartas will be engaged in the area of skill development so that the country moves fast towards Atmanirbharta and the economy of the country moves ahead overcoming the crisis of Corona pandemic.

...
In replies to various questions asked by media persons, RSS spokesperson said:

– Problems in the country such as plastic pollution, water, green cover, harmony, family system were discussed.

– We condemn violence.

– RSS condemns destruction of temples ( in reference to question on Andhra murtis vandalized row).

– The issues pertaining to farmers should be resolved through talks with the government peacefully.

– Ask BJP related questions to BJP, and ask Sangh related questions to us.

– No discussion took place on West Bengal elections.

– Kamdhenu Ayog going ahead with Vigyan is good. (question in reference to Kamdhenu Ayog planning to take test on Gau Vigyan)

– BJP chief JP Nadda attends RSS meets as a Swayamsevak.

– Love Jihad law were not discussed in 3-day Samanvay meet.

– Trees can be cut for development projects, but greater number of trees should be planted elsewhere while doing so.

– RSS organizations will reach 5 lakh villages for collection of fund for proposed Ram Janmabhoomi Mandir from Makar Sankranti across the nation.
chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 32468
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

ManSingh wrote:
a_bharat wrote:
So, if there is no filibuster mechanism, it is ok to block the highways for months by these Hindu hating mobs (and a few Hindu sell-outs with ulterior motives).

It is obvious to most folks on this forum that there is no merit to these so called "farmer protests". By this I don't mean farmers don't have problems. They do, but these protests are just a mask for something else.

If I were to take you as a representative moderate Sikh, I have to conclude that the Sikh community have become too emotional (with their hate for the current government) and have stopped being rational.
Firstly its not a sikh protest. There is equal involvement from Haryana and some involvement from western u.p., northern rajasthan and parts of uttarakhand too. Rakesh Tikait is a farm leader from western u.p. and not punjab. The reason why these states are protesting is because these benefitted the most from APMC and its monopolies.

I could counter argue that the hate received by the current protests is because of who is in power i.e. a popular government. If the same protests had happened during the upa regime, the same protestors would be called saviors standing up to a tyrant anti-hindu regime. The end result of these legislations would have been the same even if these laws were passed in upa times. Poor communication and ramming through legislation has caused anxiety ( justified or unjustified ). Some demands might be unjustified like asking for MSP guarantees or repeal of these laws. But none of these prevent the govt from presenting alternate proposals. Both agri experts and the supreme court have suggested ways to proceed.
if the same protests had occurred during the congi regime, they would have shot 200 "farmers" and the godi presstitutes would have applauded the PM

we need the APMC procurement to extend to all the southern states as well.

It simply cannot remain a monopoly of the majority sikh farmers and middlemen confined to punjab. Other states grow more rice and wheat and often these grains are of better quality than that grown in punjab

It is the Indian taxpayers money and punjab pays peanuts in terms of GST compared to MAH, GJ, KAR and TN.

All communities farm and all communities are getting killed at the borders. There is no monopoly here nor any ahsan from any one state.
darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4018
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

nehru clan and their handling of sadhus in Delhi during 1960s. Enough said. Anyone comparing protests should have basic knowledge.
Santosh
BRFite
Posts: 802
Joined: 13 Apr 2005 01:55

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Santosh »

chetak wrote:if the same protests had occurred during the congi regime, they would have shot 200 "farmers" and the godi presstitutes would have applauded the PM

we need the APMC procurement to extend to all the southern states as well.

It simply cannot remain a monopoly of the majority sikh farmers and middlemen confined to punjab. Other states grow more rice and wheat and often these grains are of better quality than that grown in punjab

It is the Indian taxpayers money and punjab pays peanuts in terms of GST compared to MAH, GJ, KAR and TN.

All communities farm and all communities are getting killed at the borders. There is no monopoly here nor any ahsan from any one state.
Exactly. The only reason you see some farmers from Haryana, Rajasthan and Western UP is because they are all geographically closer to Punjab. The spill over effects of MSP bounty/loot spills over to neighboring areas so that the flow of grains into PJ continues even if unwanted. But the gravy train runs up to Bihar. Nothing explains 30% of MSP budget to be swallowed up by one state.
Kaivalya
BRFite
Posts: 430
Joined: 19 Oct 2018 21:51

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Kaivalya »

ManSingh wrote:
Kaivalya wrote:

Like I said - you are dreaming something that doesn't exist. Please read your article in completion :
Manchin, McCaskill and Capito have the support of other Democratic senators from states with contingents of miners impacted, including Sens. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Mark Warner of Virginia. Those six senators could join forces to prevent a final vote on the continuing resolution.

US senate cloture rule requires 60 senators to stop debate. You are misinterpreting a single senator's power and changing the meaning of democracy to suit your need
Nope. I know what I am saying.

A filibuster is a way for a senator to block legislative agenda which includes bills, appointments etc. A cloture is a process to over ride a filibuster which requires 60 senators to end the debate and hence the filibuster. A cloture is not used majority of the times a legislation is blocked in senate either via holds/secret holds or filibusters. A senate acts to work beyond politics, be bipartisan and block populist bills passed by the us house. So a hold/filibuster is generally respected.

Google how one senator Dick Durbin of chicago blocked s.386 green card bill for close to an year. This would have helped Indians on h1b have a much faster path to green cards. The bill was passed by a house majority and possibly had the numbers to make it through senate. It had also come out of the senate committee. The reason for blocking was the impact of h1b employees in chicago specifically abbott laboratories that fired local employees in favor of lower wage h1b employees a few years back. He could block the legislation as long as he wanted and ultimately killed the bill.

This was what the Rajya Sabha was meant to be versus a parking spot for those who can not win elections as it is now.
Nope. You are mistaking a process for debate as something that cannot move forward. It does not matter h1b or anyother issue with a support of 60 senators will keep moving. For example farm bill that was passed in the rajya sabha had the support. Endless debates from senators or rajya sabha members are pointless and are time wasting mechanisms. Democracy means the majority of the senate/rajya sabha will move forward.

Just because h1b issue did not have 60 senators for cloture means 1 senator can keep debating holding the entire process from moving forward which is what you are arguing against. But you want it for farmers bill.

You cannot want it the way you like it when you like it. Last from me on this subject
darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4018
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

I don't seem to find any anecdote about serious protests against IWT.

Is there any reason PJ population not as concerned about conversions and drugs and not protesting for such issues?MSP vs drugs/conversions. Modi should be held responsible for drugs and conversions in PJ. PJ people don't let him walk away from these obvious issues. Also that he hasn't solved IWT and pakistan issue which is preventing PJ from growing.
vimal
BRFite
Posts: 1909
Joined: 27 Jul 2017 10:32

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by vimal »

Can we move the arthiya protest discussion to the new Punjab thread. This is a social issue as much much as political one.
Kati
BRFite
Posts: 1851
Joined: 27 Jun 1999 11:31
Location: The planet Earth

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Kati »

darshan wrote:
RSS briefing on conclusion of three-day Samanvay meet in Gandhinagar
https://www.deshgujarat.com/2021/01/07/ ... ndhinagar/
...
Official note:

Sankalp for support of more than 10 crore families from 5 lacs villages for construction of Shree Ram Mandir

Despite Corona pandemic Atmanirbharta-Swarojgar (self-employment)- KaushalVikas (Skill Development) will be a movement by the society.

Appropriate arrangements for education of the children shall be made through the medium of Mohalla School.

All will work with priority to SamrasSamaj (Cohesive society), SamskaritParivar (well cultured family)
A three days’ Akhil Bharatiya Samanvay Bethak of Karyakartas of RashtriyaSwayamsevak Sangh and different organizations was convened from 5th to 7th January 2021 at Karnavari University, Gandhinagar. On this occasion, addressing the representatives of print as well as electronic media at the press conference, Dr. Krishna Gopalji, Sahsarkaryavahji of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh said :

During this meeting, information was mutually shared about the work of social services done by different Sangathan (organization) wherever required during the Corona period.Students could not pursue their studies as schools were closed during the Corona period and therefore an appropriate arrangement for their education was made.Vidyarthi Parishad made an arrangement for the studies of the students at about 10,000 places in the country through online mode and Mohalla Pathshala. Teachers also devoted their extra time for the purpose. Besides this, thousands of Karyakartas did the work of imparting education to the students in small groups. In this way taking the national crisis as an opportunity, all organizations worked with the society shoulder to shoulder. It is a matter of pleasure that, the unity which the society has shown in the whole country is unique in the world.

During the present time our karyakartas will be engaged in the area of skill development so that the country moves fast towards Atmanirbharta and the economy of the country moves ahead overcoming the crisis of Corona pandemic.

...
In replies to various questions asked by media persons, RSS spokesperson said:

– Problems in the country such as plastic pollution, water, green cover, harmony, family system were discussed.

– We condemn violence.

– RSS condemns destruction of temples ( in reference to question on Andhra murtis vandalized row).

– The issues pertaining to farmers should be resolved through talks with the government peacefully.

– Ask BJP related questions to BJP, and ask Sangh related questions to us.

– No discussion took place on West Bengal elections.

– Kamdhenu Ayog going ahead with Vigyan is good. (question in reference to Kamdhenu Ayog planning to take test on Gau Vigyan)

– BJP chief JP Nadda attends RSS meets as a Swayamsevak.

– Love Jihad law were not discussed in 3-day Samanvay meet.

– Trees can be cut for development projects, but greater number of trees should be planted elsewhere while doing so.

– RSS organizations will reach 5 lakh villages for collection of fund for proposed Ram Janmabhoomi Mandir from Makar Sankranti across the nation.
I can attest the above. Pracharaks are reaching out in remote NE region villages and small towns with requests to retired govt officials, social workers, teachers, etc to join the effort and they have been quite successful in getting spontaneous very positive response. Let this quiet revolution continue.
Tanaji
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4557
Joined: 21 Jun 2000 11:31

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Tanaji »

ManSinghji,

Please peruse this
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filibus ... tes_Senate

I believe you are mistaken as to how much obstruction a single senator can do to a bill. It is certainly not as if one person can hold up everything.
ManSingh
BRFite
Posts: 312
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 17:30

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ManSingh »

Tanaji wrote:ManSinghji,

Please peruse this
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filibus ... tes_Senate

I believe you are mistaken as to how much obstruction a single senator can do to a bill. It is certainly not as if one person can hold up everything.
Thanks Tanaji for sharing the link. I think the more important point is availability of a mechanism in which dissent ( allowing dissent is not the same as providing a protest venue ) to a legislation can be communicated in a formal way. There is no collective threat and the opinion of the dissenter is listened to ( even if not agreed to ). In our system, the concept of "legislative discipline" involves having a party "whip" on the house floor. A "whip" issued by the floor leader can not be defied. An MLA/MP absolutely "has" to vote on party lines or loose his seat. India is a country of 1.3 billion+ people and it is not reasonable to expect the challenges faced are same by every region even if they are governed by the same party.

and yes filibuster can/will kill a legislation in senate. OT for this forum but I can explain what happens in senate.

A senate generally works on "Unanimous consent" and a voting is considered only if all options of unanimous consent have been exhausted. Politically what this means is that if a vote is listed for a senate vote, it means that there is a high likelihood of it to fail.

I agree there are ways to bring a dissenting senator to see reason but generally coercion is not used. If a senator or group of senators tells his colleagues that he intends to filibuster, the bill will likely never be brought to a vote. Following is what happens:

1) The bill is not brought to a vote because filibuster takes up time and there is no time limit for debate on a filibuster.
https://www.thoughtco.com/the-definitio ... er-3367948
Often, senators make their intent to filibuster known to other senators to prevent a bill from being scheduled for a vote. That's why you rarely see long filibusters on the Senate floors. Bills that will not be approved are rarely scheduled for a vote.

2) The senate sends the bill to senate judiciary committee. This is a graveyard where bills are sent to "die". Most bills that reach this committee are never brought up again. Taking a bill out of this committee requires a committee vote that is a separate vote from the senate floor. If a bill somehow is voted out of the committee, it can be filibustered again when it comes to a vote on the senate floor and there is no end to this process. The senate majority leader ( Mitch McConnell currently) to efficiently use senate time, for this very reason will not list a bill for discussion that a senator has threatened to filibuster.

https://www.newsweek.com/mitch-mcconnel ... ss-1487401

3) The place is a graveyard because 1/3 ( number might be wrong ) are due for elections every two years. If a bill remains in senate ( judiciary committee or otherwise ) and senate is adjourned for elections, the bill dies forever.

Example of bills that never made it because of filibuster:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/won ... ilibuster/

Sorry I can not provide links for all above. The above is from my following of US politics.
srin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2525
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:13

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by srin »

The question of filibuster etc is all too complex for me. I'm seeing it as a simple one: we grow more rice/wheat than we need (including buffer stocks). That's why the market price is low.

What is the solution to this ?
suryag
Forum Moderator
Posts: 4042
Joined: 11 Jan 2009 00:14

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by suryag »

Folks - please stay on topic
sanjayc
BRFite
Posts: 1101
Joined: 22 Aug 2016 21:40

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by sanjayc »

First big deal under the new farm laws

Reliance seals Karnataka rice deal, to pay above MSP
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/arti ... aign=cppst

Mandi commission agents are in panic. No monopolist likes customers getting an alternative.
Lisa
BRFite
Posts: 1738
Joined: 04 May 2008 11:25

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Lisa »

Filibuster, dissent, protest etc am I missing something here. Every 5 years India has an election. Why did these farmers not sustain a majority with their current opinions and if they did not how do they feel that they have a RIGHT to overwhelm the opinion of the majority? Their actions are tantamount to a terrorist action in that they are using threats to overwhelm the rule of law and LAWFUL MANDATE of a government.

There must be no negotiation with an UNELECTED constituency by an Indian government. It sets a very bad precedence.

If these protesters are unhappy with the law then go to parliament where the WHOLE nation can decide. They will and cannot as they have no interest in the law per say, ie tantamount to a terrorist action to use threats to overwhelm the rule of law and LAWFUL MANDATE of a government..
kit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6278
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by kit »

Adhoti Roy has come out of the wood works supporting "farmers"
nvishal
BRFite
Posts: 992
Joined: 14 Aug 2010 18:03

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by nvishal »

I think we can expect the punjabi protestors to resort to violence now after the failure of the 8th round. They engaged in vandalism in haryana today.

There may no longer be any direct talks with the central govt as the centre has passed the ball to supreme court and carefully checkmating the organisers, sending them into panic mode. They are fully aware that they have no actual case against the farm bills in the first place and are on their way to be toasted by the SC. There is no honorary exit for them in this mess they've created for themselves. Either go back quietly or incite violence and get clamped down by the riot police and claim to have fallen with some resistance. Now you know why capt amarinder receded quietly after the first 10 days as he knew it was a show dead on arrival.
darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4018
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

‘Jamia University terminated 23 employees from Valmiki community, no money for food’ – emotional video of terminated sanitation employees go viral
https://www.opindia.com/2021/01/jamia-u ... community/
Yet another controversy has erupted in the Jamia Millia Islamia University located in the Okhla region of South-East Delhi. A video of sanitation workers from Jamia is going viral on social media platforms. One of the terminated employees identified as Rajesh Kumar Valmiki made a heart-wrenching appeal against Jamia’s administration’s decision to terminate the employment of 23 Sanitation workers.
...
darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4018
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

Is WHO run by scientific people?
WHO distorts Indian map, separates Ladakh, Jammu and Kashmir, from rest of the country
https://www.opindia.com/2021/01/who-dis ... u-kashmir/
...
The United Nations body, World Health Organisation, has been under the scanner for its alleged coverup of the spread of coronavirus which originated in China. It has been criticised globally for its alleged collusion with China which led to the coronavirus turn into a pandemic claiming lives of over 2 million deaths and infecting almost 90 million globally till today. Earlier, too, Donald Trump had criticised World Health Organisation and accused it of being ‘too focused on China’.
...
darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4018
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

Priorities.
Did you know former PM Manmohan Singh cannot read Hindi? All his speeches were written in Urdu
https://www.opindia.com/2021/01/manmoha ... ches-urdu/
On the World Hindi Day, it will be interesting to know that former Prime Minister of India, Dr Manmohan Singh cannot read Hindi. All the speeches he had given in Hindi were written in Urdu so that he could read them. Although he could speak Hindi, he did not learn how to read it. If any speech was in Hindi, he needed time to practice it. There are reports that the first speech he gave in Hindi needed three days of practice.
...
KJo
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9926
Joined: 05 Oct 2010 02:54

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KJo »

darshan wrote:Priorities.
Did you know former PM Manmohan Singh cannot read Hindi? All his speeches were written in Urdu
https://www.opindia.com/2021/01/manmoha ... ches-urdu/
On the World Hindi Day, it will be interesting to know that former Prime Minister of India, Dr Manmohan Singh cannot read Hindi. All the speeches he had given in Hindi were written in Urdu so that he could read them. Although he could speak Hindi, he did not learn how to read it. If any speech was in Hindi, he needed time to practice it. There are reports that the first speech he gave in Hindi needed three days of practice.
...
Does it mean that he cannot read Devanagri script but can read Persian script?
It's likely that since he grew up in Gah in Pak, he grew up learning the Persian script.
kit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6278
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by kit »

darshan wrote:Is WHO run by scientific people?
WHO distorts Indian map, separates Ladakh, Jammu and Kashmir, from rest of the country
...
they just get a lot of money from China., right from its director general.
Kakkaji
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3867
Joined: 23 Oct 2002 11:31

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Kakkaji »

darshan wrote:Priorities.
Did you know former PM Manmohan Singh cannot read Hindi? All his speeches were written in Urdu
https://www.opindia.com/2021/01/manmoha ... ches-urdu/
On the World Hindi Day, it will be interesting to know that former Prime Minister of India, Dr Manmohan Singh cannot read Hindi. All the speeches he had given in Hindi were written in Urdu so that he could read them. Although he could speak Hindi, he did not learn how to read it. If any speech was in Hindi, he needed time to practice it. There are reports that the first speech he gave in Hindi needed three days of practice.
...
I think in pre-independence Punjab, which was a Muslim-majority province, Urdu was the official script. Khushwant Singh has also alluded to this. He could read and speak Urdu well, but not Hindi.

I believe today the official script is Gurumukhi in Punjab, and Hindi in Haryana.
Kakkaji
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3867
Joined: 23 Oct 2002 11:31

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Kakkaji »

I think the discussions about the U.S. system of passing laws are useless for this thread. The U.S. has a Presidential system, India has a Parliamentary one.

US and France have their own models/ structures of democracy. For the Indian system of passing laws, if you want to compare, then compare it with the UK system, which is what it is modeled after.
Kakkaji
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3867
Joined: 23 Oct 2002 11:31

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Kakkaji »

Kakkaji wrote:I think the discussions about the U.S. system of passing laws are useless for this thread. The U.S. has a Presidential system, India has a Parliamentary one.

US and France have their own models/ structures of democracy. For the Indian system of passing laws, if you want to compare, then compare it with the UK system, which is what it is modeled after.

Or else you rewrite the Constitution of India, and you know how easy it is going to be in today's environment.
greatde
BRFite
Posts: 189
Joined: 29 Sep 2016 10:39

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by greatde »

Why hasn't the government talked about the consumers? Or the common-man in this farm bills? Aren't they are biggest beneficiaries with lower prices. Maybe change the bill name to some Aam Aadmi goods bills?

There should be focus towards the biggest group which is the consumers. Indirectly make it a rich farmers vs common man protest, and thus, capture the narrative...
ManSingh
BRFite
Posts: 312
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 17:30

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ManSingh »

greatde wrote:Why hasn't the government talked about the consumers? Or the common-man in this farm bills? Aren't they are biggest beneficiaries with lower prices. Maybe change the bill name to some Aam Aadmi goods bills?

There should be focus towards the biggest group which is the consumers. Indirectly make it a rich farmers vs common man protest, and thus, capture the narrative...
Stock limits -> 100% price rise permitted http://egazette.nic.in/WriteReadData/2020/222038.pdf

any action on imposing stock limit shall be based on price rise and an order for regulating stock limit of any agricultural produce may be issued under this Act only if there is— (i) hundred per cent. increase in the retail price of horticulturalproduce; or(ii) fifty per cent. increase in the retail price of non-perishableagricultural foodstuffs,over the price prevailing immediately preceding twelve months, or average retailprice of last five years, whichever is lower
ManSingh
BRFite
Posts: 312
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 17:30

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ManSingh »

Kakkaji wrote:
I think in pre-independence Punjab, which was a Muslim-majority province, Urdu was the official script. Khushwant Singh has also alluded to this. He could read and speak Urdu well, but not Hindi.

I believe today the official script is Gurumukhi in Punjab, and Hindi in Haryana.
That is correct. The official language for communication was Urdu. Till a few years ago ( and probably today also ), a lot of land revenue records are in Urdu. Also a lot of legal terms across northern India are from the days of Urdu communication. If you listen to Hindi news today you will hear words like "halafnaama" i.e. affidavit which is essentially Urdu.

A lot of our grand-parents could only read-write in Urdu. During my early years, regularly used to meet older folks in banks who would ask for help in filling up forms. They would sign in Urdu. This is also why a lot older generation Hindi films ( 60-90s ) had opening credits in three languages i.e. English, Hindi and Urdu.
venkat_kv
BRFite
Posts: 461
Joined: 05 Dec 2020 21:01

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by venkat_kv »

ManSingh wrote:
a_bharat wrote:
So, if there is no filibuster mechanism, it is ok to block the highways for months by these Hindu hating mobs (and a few Hindu sell-outs with ulterior motives).

It is obvious to most folks on this forum that there is no merit to these so called "farmer protests". By this I don't mean farmers don't have problems. They do, but these protests are just a mask for something else.

If I were to take you as a representative moderate Sikh, I have to conclude that the Sikh community have become too emotional (with their hate for the current government) and have stopped being rational.
Firstly its not a sikh protest. There is equal involvement from Haryana and some involvement from western u.p., northern rajasthan and parts of uttarakhand too. Rakesh Tikait is a farm leader from western u.p. and not punjab. The reason why these states are protesting is because these benefitted the most from APMC and its monopolies.

I could counter argue that the hate received by the current protests is because of who is in power i.e. a popular government. If the same protests had happened during the upa regime, the same protestors would be called saviors standing up to a tyrant anti-hindu regime. The end result of these legislations would have been the same even if these laws were passed in upa times. Poor communication and ramming through legislation has caused anxiety ( justified or unjustified ). Some demands might be unjustified like asking for MSP guarantees or repeal of these laws. But none of these prevent the govt from presenting alternate proposals. Both agri experts and the supreme court have suggested ways to proceed.
Mansingh Saar,
don't you have it backwards? first of all this protest is by a "section" of farmers who seem to "perceive" that MSP will come to an end (it may very well come to be if the market price is moving above that long term. There was a link by another poster that mentioned Reliance snapping rice in karnataka at higer than MSP, (could result in longterm losses to Punjab and protesting region farmers if this continues long term).

if this law would have been passed by the UPA, rest assured the current agitation would not even occur/register. you seem to forget that these are primarily driven by Congress and Communist affiliated Kisan Unions. they would have hailed the govt and media would be singing paeans of the same. Capt. saab seems to have disappeared from the front after fanning flames in his home state.

The govt has provided an alternate venue/model for doing farm business. whatever was done since the past 70 years has reached a dead end with farmer suicides. None of these Kisan unions were on the street protesting farmers suicides. The govt has only said that they/farmers can also sell outside if they feel they can get a better price while leaving the mandi's intact. The protesting farmers are supposed to come with an alternate not the govt which has already provide the alternate solution.

you are coming back with a line saying that we can't depend on the bureaucrats/bureaucracy. but repealing the existing laws is still putting you at their mercy. These end up being straw man arguments (especially with the commies who don't seem to believe in democracy or institutions when it suits them).
ManSingh
BRFite
Posts: 312
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 17:30

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ManSingh »

venkat_kv wrote:
Mansingh Saar,
don't you have it backwards? first of all this protest is by a "section" of farmers who seem to "perceive" that MSP will come to an end (it may very well come to be if the market price is moving above that long term. There was a link by another poster that mentioned Reliance snapping rice in karnataka at higer than MSP, (could result in longterm losses to Punjab and protesting region farmers if this continues long term).

if this law would have been passed by the UPA, rest assured the current agitation would not even occur/register. you seem to forget that these are primarily driven by Congress and Communist affiliated Kisan Unions. they would have hailed the govt and media would be singing paeans of the same. Capt. saab seems to have disappeared from the front after fanning flames in his home state.

The govt has provided an alternate venue/model for doing farm business. whatever was done since the past 70 years has reached a dead end with farmer suicides. None of these Kisan unions were on the street protesting farmers suicides. The govt has only said that they/farmers can also sell outside if they feel they can get a better price while leaving the mandi's intact. The protesting farmers are supposed to come with an alternate not the govt which has already provide the alternate solution.

you are coming back with a line saying that we can't depend on the bureaucrats/bureaucracy. but repealing the existing laws is still putting you at their mercy. These end up being straw man arguments (especially with the commies who don't seem to believe in democracy or institutions when it suits them).

Please no sir for me.

Anything that gets north western India off rice cultivation is a good thing. Just that it needs to be gradual and controlled. Whether procurement from Karnataka affects Punjab, I am not sure. Rice has many varities and different regions consume different varities. I hadn't heard of Sona Masoori till I lived in Punjab. I am not sure what Karnataka produces and where Reliance intends to sell it.

The point about high prices initially is expected. This is similar to the concept of "Penetrative pricing" pioneered by Jio in the telecom sector and does not fall on the wrong side of the law in India ( supreme court judgement Jio +cci vs COAI case ).
In my opinion the issue would be price fluctuations and not necessarily the actual price. It can be insured I guess. The unions demand a different thing i.e. MSP which I don't think is going to happen.
Capt saahab is mostly running intelligence for the center these days. A few arrests have happened recently. Fair enough, its a border state and its his job to keep the peace.

Yes there is a commie presence in the current agitation but they are not the only one's driving the protests. Actually the alliance of 40 different organizations is a very unnatural alliance with various conflicts between them. This also probably makes the center wary of dealing with such a wide variety of leaders.

As far as I know, agriculture is a field which is not fully open to market forces across the globe. Its not really subject to a completely free market in the hope that production will match or slightly exceed demand and both consumer and producer will both find a fair price. Here is an example ( in addition to the european one I provided a few pages back ).

http://www.omafra.gov.on.ca/english/far ... supply.htm

I guess different countries will implement different policies as per their priorities. Though it would be good to keep this industry free from monopolies, duopolies and cartels which affect other sectors.
Sachin
Webmaster BR
Posts: 8991
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Undisclosed

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Sachin »

Just as on cue there are now rumour mongering and political scheming regarding the COVID-19 Vaccination
Chhattisgarh CM writes to PM Modi, seeks priority Covid 19 vaccination for state
Stop using Covaxin until full results out: Chhattisgarh Health Minister
The state's CM says one thing and the Health Minister says some thing else :lol:. And expect more news head lines such as;
1. "Man dies while standing in queue for vaccination"
2. "Muslim youth abused for not taking COVID vaccine"
3. "Woman commits suicide since she was told to come for vaccination on another day".
chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 32468
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

vimal wrote:Can we move the arthiya protest discussion to the new Punjab thread. This is a social issue as much much as political one.
there are some people on the net who are saying that about 20 families are involved.

It appears possible that a MAH like situation may also playing out in punjab where there are 99 prominent maratha(?) families who have, for decades, cornered political power and control over coop banks, APMCs, sugar mills etc and other institutions of patronage like educational conglomerates dispensing medical, engg, MBA seats on payment basis.

we already know that there is a sugar, onion and other commodities mafia controlling prices, supply and hoarding in MAH and they create shortages and rake in the profite every year without fail or fear.

Can any one confirm, one way or the other, about the 20 families in punjab
Sachin
Webmaster BR
Posts: 8991
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Undisclosed

Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Sachin »

The Supreme Court on Monday indicated that it will stay the contentious farm laws if the government is not willing to keep it in abeyance till it reaches consensus with the protesting farmers (The Hindu).
So looks like Central Govt will also find a way to weasel out of the situation ;). GoI can say that it did try to bring in reforms, but it was scuttled by the judiciary.
RajeshA
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16006
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 19:30

2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by RajeshA »

Farmer Protests - Deescalation

CJI intervention is, IMHO, a measure initiated with GoI's silent agreement. NaMo has a problem in Punjab, as in that state BJP is simply a minor player politically. NaMo knows that Punjab is a big open door for Western-Islamist operations through Khalistanis. If NaMo had the confidence to fight it out politically, he would have. But the relations between Hindus and Jat-Sikhs have deteriorated rapidly also due to social media. With Dems in charge in DC, all these BIF operations will get a boost. But NaMo wants to stick to Farmer Laws as a matter of principle. Hence the entry of CJI. GoI has already told the protestors to seek solution in Supreme Court. The whole issue of Farmer Laws will now be taken to the state level. BJP knows that small farmers in Punjab are in favor of Farmer Laws. It allows BJP a direct entry into Punjab politics, as an advocate of freedom for farmers. That is where the political fight will take place. Elsewhere it would be a state issue, and most state governments would vote in favor. BJP will now deescalate situation. Fight with Jat-Sikhs is simply not useful right now, when there will be a struggle on 3½ fronts (USA being added). There are many ways to take out the ghee.
Locked