India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

[Suraj]

There is another fallacy doing the rounds, which is a Trump <> Modi equivalence. Both right and left are guilty of it.

The right thinkers seem compelled that their support for Modi means they should be pro-Trump because of the bonhomie observed between Modi & Trump, and that Trump is acting with India's interests in mind.

This isn't the case - there's a general stated or unstated hope of that from every incoming POTUS dating back to the Clinton era when the forum itself began. This is largely a reflection of lack of confidence in the country - which is misplaced with at least the current administration. Time to get past that obsession. Modi hugs everyone - Obama, Xi, Putin, Macron, Net&Yahoo...

Both the Indian left and 'right' misunderstand the BJP. They are not a party in the mould of the Republicans or Conservatives in UK at all. Both those are the respective parties of their countries' economic elite. Both of those are quite openly supportive of individualism, anti-union, anti-'socialist' (though they'll never dismantle Social Security or the NHS).

In India, the BJP is not the party of the socio-economic elite - the Congress is that party. The BJP/BJS foundational idea of integral humanism is explicltly against individualism and favours collective/societal cohesion. They espouse large programs like the Indian universal healthcare mission, and heavy investment in basic utilities, infrastructure and are not fundamentally pro-privatization at all.

The Anglosphere has nothing like the BJP, but their political stance is widely known in mainland Europe, where it is called Christian democracy. Read about them and you'd realize they're almost a mirror of the BJP - not particularly about secularism but believe that there is a dominant culture that acts as a cohesive force. Generally center-right socially, but center-left economically. These are all what the BJP has been.

The most well known present Christian democratic leader is none else but Angela Merkel. The CDU are a powerhouse of German politics. having dominated their post WW2 scene. They're popular throughout the Germanic world, Scandinavia and Southern Europe, all of which have strong CD parties.

Indian politics are unnecessarily seen in terms of US/UK's definition of left vs right. Those concepts do not translate to India at all. Map the European Christian Democrats vs European Socialists, and you have what looks a lot like BJP vs Congress.

[Skanda]

Previously secret details of Trump administration's Indo-Pacific strategy revealed
On India:

The document speaks of the need to "align our Indo-Pacific strategy with those of Australia, India and Japan", of deepening trilateral cooperation with Japan and Australia, and a quadrilateral security relationship with India — all moves that have been made since that time.

The US objective on India is to "accelerate India's rise and capacity to serve as a net provider of security" by building "a stronger foundation for defense cooperation and interoperability; expand our defense trade and ability to transfer defense technology", and to "offer support to India through diplomatic, military and intelligence channels — to help address continental challenges such as the border dispute with China".

On China:

"This strategic framework is very forthright on China — not quite confrontational but very firm," Professor Medcalf said.

"It's under no illusions about the nature of Chinese power or the assertive way in which China is using its power."

The strategy commits to "devise and implement a defense strategy capable of, but not limited to: (1) denying China sustained air and sea dominance inside the 'first island chain' in a conflict; (2) defending the first island chain nations, including Taiwan; and (3) dominating all domains outside the first island chain".

"This is very clear code for America holding its ground with Taiwan, with partners and allies in the South China Sea, with Japan, with Korea, really maintaining the integrity of those relationships and protecting them from Chinese assertiveness and Chinese aggression," Professor Medcalf said.

Sources say the document's language on Taiwan should be read as the US committing to having the capability to deter and, if necessary, rebuff China's incursions on Taiwan, rather than an intent.

[Najunamar]

There's another misconception that people who supported Trumpism actually find him/all that he says agreeable. Not true, it is more that he who does the least damage to the majority of humanity is preferred(here most of humanity resides outside US, so following the words of Vidhura, we can sacrifice the country for the world)...

[darshan]

There's another misconception that people who supported Trumpism actually find him/all that he says agreeable. Not true, it is more that he who does the least damage to the majority of humanity is preferred(here most of humanity resides outside US, so following the words of Vidhura, we can sacrifice the country for the world)...

+1. Science and scientists be damned if there's someone out there that gives a better chance to stop chinese and save the planet. If scientific people were of any use to politicians then chinese would have never been allowed or be enabled to destroy this planet. Common sense is always lacking for Edison.

[vijayk]

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/accelerat ... do-pacific

A secret US strategy for the Indo-Pacific framed in 2018 noted India as “preeminent in South Asia” and a country taking on “the leading role in maintaining Indian Ocean security,” reports Hindustan Times.

The document advocates strengthening India's capacities to address the challenges emanating from China, including the border dispute.

It says that the US will take action on several fronts, including diplomatic, military and intelligence, to “accelerate India’s rise and capacity to serve as a net provider of security and Major Defense Partner.”

According to the document, “the US will build a stronger foundation for defense cooperation and interoperability; expand our defense trade and ability to transfer defense technology to enhance India’s status as a Major Defense Partner; increase our cooperation on shared regional security concerns and encourage India’s engagement beyond the Indian Ocean Region”.

Measures outlined in the document to strengthen India’s capacities also include US’s support to India’s bid for membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group which was blocked by China.

Why was this declassified NOW?

Will this change now that international anarchist/commie/terrorist forces are coordinating with Dems?

[chetak]

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/accelerat ... do-pacific

A secret US strategy for the Indo-Pacific framed in 2018 noted India as “preeminent in South Asia” and a country taking on “the leading role in maintaining Indian Ocean security,” reports Hindustan Times.

The document advocates strengthening India's capacities to address the challenges emanating from China, including the border dispute.

It says that the US will take action on several fronts, including diplomatic, military and intelligence, to “accelerate India’s rise and capacity to serve as a net provider of security and Major Defense Partner.”

According to the document, “the US will build a stronger foundation for defense cooperation and interoperability; expand our defense trade and ability to transfer defense technology to enhance India’s status as a Major Defense Partner; increase our cooperation on shared regional security concerns and encourage India’s engagement beyond the Indian Ocean Region”.

Measures outlined in the document to strengthen India’s capacities also include US’s support to India’s bid for membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group which was blocked by China.

Why was this declassified NOW?

Will this change now that international anarchist/commie/terrorist forces are coordinating with Dems?

this is more because trump does not want biden to go easy on the hans or even be able to back track.

India is incidental in all these machinations.

some deep state guys may be the inspiration for this parting shot

India gains almost nothing from this declassification except to remain even more firmly in the han cross hairs and face the brunt of the han frustrations

[mmasand]

For those interested in the now declassified Indo-pacific strategy - White House release.

Unfortunately owing to the mayhem in DC last week, this hasn't received much coverage as it would have otherwise. There's a lot in hidden print behind upping the ante with China, by counterbalancing a 'strong' India. I'd expect to see Matt Pottinger's interviews once he leaves office. All eyes on Kurt Campbell and Rush Doshi.

[Najunamar]

With known Modi-hater Burns nominated for the culinary institute head position, not very sure all the decisions of the outgoing regime will not get reversed in short order.

[darshan]

With demonization of Trump and anything associated with him, the stage is already being set to reverse whatever is desired with ease. No one will question reversal of anything associated with Trump. Only historians will have comments about chinese successfully utilizing all their collected trade money over decades.

Various US corporations without any business in china continue to be sensitive about chinese but US institutions don't find it important enough to investigate.

No one in the US media openly questioning anything about chinese and US corporations. The treatment being handed to Trump, by various entities, isn't being handed to chinese and other regimes openly committing human rights violations.

[Amber G.]

Desis heading to Washington DC!

For the first time ever, (at least) 12 Desis (I know) will be a part of President-elect Biden's cabinet.

1. Neera Tanden will be overseeing the budget for various federal agencies as Director of the White House Office of Management and Budget.
2. Dr. Vivek Murthy is named as the US Surgeon General
3. Vanita Gupta, Associate Attorney General. Alumnus of New York University School of Law.
4. Aisha Shah, White House Office of Digital Strategy
5. Gautam Raghavan, Deputy Director in Office of Presidential Personnel. Born in India and raised in Seattle.
6. Bharat Ramamurti, Deputy Director of National Economic Council. A resident of Boston, he is a distinguished alumnus of Harvard College and Yale School of Law.
7. Vinay Reddy, Director of Speechwriting. He was raised in Dayton, Ohio.
8. Tarun Chhabra from Tennessee will be sworn in as Senior Director for Technology and National Security. An eminent alumnus of Oxford University, Harvard University and Stanford University.
9. Sumona Guha from Maryland will be serving as Senior Director for South Asia at the National Security Council.
10. Sabrina Singh will serve as a Deputy Press Secretary
11. Vedant Patel will be an Assistant Press Secretary. Gujarat born and California based.
12. Shanthi Kalathil, Coordinator for Democracy and Human Rights. An Indian-origin Californian, Shanthi graduated from UC Berkeley and the London School of Economics.

[Rudradev]

With known Modi-hater Burns nominated for the culinary institute head position, not very sure all the decisions of the outgoing regime will not get reversed in short order.

Agreed. This guy will create problems. At the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, he has vocally criticized Modi on all the leftists' favourite talking-points: Article 370, CAA ("discriminating against Muslims"), Ram Mandir ("feeding disputes over religious sites") , and alleged "pressures against journalists and activists who are critical of the government". CIA director is not a minor position.

[Mort Walker]

"The Asia Group consultancy announces its co-founder and CEO Kurt Campbell's appointment as the Biden administration's Asia policy czar. It says Campbell will serve as the deputy assistant to the president and coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs on the National Security Council. "His decision to join the Biden-Harris administration reflects his deep commitment to public service and helping advance U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific region during a consequential historic moment," says Nirav Patel, the group's president and co-founder."

Kurt Campbell doesn't have open anti-India statements, or at least I'm not aware of, and neither does Avril Haines, the DNI nominee. However, they have to fit in the "great reset" to be implemented by the big three.

These big three anti-India nominees will use the argument that they are not anti-India, but anti-Modi policies and would like a return to the "secular democratic India":

William Burns - CIA
Jake Sullivan - NSA
Tony Blinken - SoS

Upcoming state elections in TN May 2021, WB May 2021, KL June 2021, PB Feb/Mar 2022, UP Feb/Mar 2022, and GJ Dec 2022 are likely to have US interference. If the Modi govt. can be weakened, then it will fit the incoming administration's goal.

[KLNMurthy]

With known Modi-hater Burns nominated for the culinary institute head position, not very sure all the decisions of the outgoing regime will not get reversed in short order.

Agreed. This guy will create problems. At the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, he has vocally criticized Modi on all the leftists' favourite talking-points: Article 370, CAA ("discriminating against Muslims"), Ram Mandir ("feeding disputes over religious sites") , and alleged "pressures against journalists and activists who are critical of the government". CIA director is not a minor position.

hmm... that's not good.

What do we know about these two:

Sumona Guha from Maryland will be serving as Senior Director for South Asia at the National Security Council.

Shanthi Kalathil, Coordinator for Democracy and Human Rights. An Indian-origin Californian, Shanthi graduated from UC Berkeley and the London School of Economics.

[KLNMurthy]

...

These big three anti-India nominees will use the argument that they are not anti-India, but anti-Modi policies and would like a return to the "secular democratic India":

William Burns - CIA
Jake Sullivan - NSA
Tony Blinken - SoS

Upcoming state elections in TN May 2021, WB May 2021, KL June 2021, PB Feb/Mar 2022, UP Feb/Mar 2022, and GJ Dec 2022 are likely to have US interference. If the Modi govt. can be weakened, then it will fit the incoming administration's goal.

Being anti-Modi and anti-India is one and the same thing, for all practical purposes. I am an unabashed Modi partisan, but that's not even why I am saying this. Modi is a force for stability and progress in India, about the only one that I can see.

I can only hope Modi's team is prepared for what is coming and will be able to mitigate it.

[m_saini]

Being anti-Modi and anti-India is one and the same thing, for all practical purposes. Modi is a force for stability and progress in India, about the only one that I can see.

+1. Hate the fact that one person has become such a lynch-pin but it is what it is.

[g.sarkar]

https://www.thecut.com/2021/01/rep-jaya ... riots.html
Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal Has Tested Positive for COVID
By Rebecca Traister, Jan. 12, 2021
Democratic congresswoman Pramila Jayapal of Washington has tested positive for the COVID-19 virus after being sequestered for several hours during last week’s siege on the Capitol building in a room with maskless Republican colleagues.
After armed, pro-Trump insurgents stormed into the Capitol building on Wednesday, January 6, many congress members and their staffs — including Jayapal, who had initially been stranded in the gallery of the House chamber — were evacuated to a secure location; though over 100 people were crowded into a poorly ventilated room for hours, several of them refused to wear masks.
......
Gautam

[Mort Walker]

The axiom which applies is:
anti-Modi policies <> anti-India

The big three did work on the India-US nuclear deal and welcoming Modi to the US in 2015, 2016 and subsequent moving the US-India relationship forward including Obama's visit as chief guest at Republic Day 2015. The Washington establishment changed their views on India after currency demonetization in Nov. 2016. It is after this period where they realized that the current GoI is nowhere near as corrupt as past ones and can't be easily bought out.

[vimal]

https://www.thecut.com/2021/01/rep-jaya ... riots.html
Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal Has Tested Positive for COVID
By Rebecca Traister, Jan. 12, 2021
Democratic congresswoman Pramila Jayapal of Washington has tested positive for the COVID-19 virus after being sequestered for several hours during last week’s siege on the Capitol building in ...
Gautam

This is the second time this news has been shared on this thread. What exactly is the significance?

[vijayk]

https://www.thecut.com/2021/01/rep-jaya ... riots.html
Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal Has Tested Positive for COVID
By Rebecca Traister, Jan. 12, 2021
Democratic congresswoman Pramila Jayapal of Washington has tested positive for the COVID-19 virus after being sequestered for several hours during last week’s siege on the Capitol building in ...
Gautam

This is the second time this news has been shared on this thread. What exactly is the significance?

keep you fingers crossed... May be something good will come out of it

[g.sarkar]

https://www.thecut.com/2021/01/rep-jaya ... riots.html
Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal Has Tested Positive for COVID
By Rebecca Traister, Jan. 12, 2021
Democratic congresswoman Pramila Jayapal of Washington has tested positive for the COVID-19 virus after being sequestered for several hours during last week’s siege on the Capitol building in ...
Gautam

This is the second time this news has been shared on this thread. What exactly is the significance?

I was not aware of the first share, I apologize for the duplication. I posted the news because my heart was heavy with sorrow for the misfortune of Ms. Jayapal. I would not wish Kovid on my worst enemy, and Ms. Jayapal is a fellow citizen. I hope she feels better very soon and goes about doing whatever she does regularly.
Gautam

[Rudradev]

I have not seen any evidence of SoS-nominee Anthony Blinken or NSA-nominee Jake Sullivan making anti-India (or anti-Modi) pronouncements. Snippets from interviews in which they answered leading questions in a certain way do not tell us anything much... interviews are heavily edited before publishing anyway, and very often what is said/paraphrased/left out reflects the biases of the editorial board rather than the interviewee.

The point with (incoming CIA director) William Burns is that he, of his own accord, gave a talk at CEIP whose content was entirely his own responsibility. So he himself chose to go before a public audience and amplify the Pak-Qatar-NYT propaganda line against Modi on his own initiative, adding that Modi/BJP's "behaviour" (of which he had just given a completely false account) had the potential to change US-India relations for the worse.

This is a whole different league of hostility on display.

[Rudradev]

Read the Pramila Jayapal article by Rebecca Traister in the Cut. Really, try to contain your nausea and read it.

The sheer number of times Jayapal manages to mention being a "woman" and an "immigrant" and "of color" will boggle your mind. Any normal Congressperson would simply have given an account of being trapped in the riot, perhaps alluded to their own particular fear for friends and/or family, but Jayapal uses the incident to broadcast her identity grievances and prefab cloak of victimhood as far and wide as possible.

She is extraordinarily skilled and completely shameless at this. No wonder CAIR, ICNA, and the Pakistani Caucus have recruited her.

[Mort Walker]

Anotny Blinken gave a talk at the Hudson Institute in which he expressed "concerns about India" including cashmere and citizenship in the last year. That excludes him of being a friend of India.

Jake Sullivan did give an interview with the New Yorker, which was not good for India, but at the same time he didn't object to its publication.

Burns, Blinken and Sullivan represent a return to policies of 30 years ago concerning India.

[Rudradev]

Being anti-Modi and anti-India is one and the same thing, for all practical purposes. I am an unabashed Modi partisan, but that's not even why I am saying this. Modi is a force for stability and progress in India, about the only one that I can see.

I can only hope Modi's team is prepared for what is coming and will be able to mitigate it.

I have a strong sense that functionally destabilizing Modi is going to be very low on the Biden administration's list of priorities. They have a vast uphill climb ahead of them domestically, dealing with COVID and its economic impact, placating both traditional centrist Dems and Squad nutjobs in their own party, and of course dealing with a 100 different forms of MAGA-tard revolt alleging "stolen election" and what not. All this they have to do while keeping an eye on the 2022 midterms where they cannot afford to lose a single seat. So foreign policy will not occupy too many processor cycles anyway.

Foreign-policy wise there are, first and foremost, the twin foci of traditional Clintonite/Bidenist obsession that will be prioritized above all else: fighting Russia in the Europe/NATO theatre and fighting Russia in the Middle East. Then comes confronting China on the traditional APEC side, plus ending the Afghan war; and only after that confronting China in the "Indo-Pacific" with the Quad etc. on board. It is in this last category that a decision to intervene in the internal politics of India will fall.

So yes, it is worth watching the statements that emanate from the usual suspects, tracking where those statements are repeated by elected members of the federal and state legislatures or by officials of the Biden administration, and seeing if there is any correlation to policy. But operations to actively destabilize foreign regimes are risky, expensive, difficult, and only taken up if there is a very promising cost/benefit ratio and strong likelihood of success. Helping destabilize Indira Gandhi (a known Soviet ally) during a time when she was already unpopular after the Emergency, and already besieged by the widespread opposition of the JP movement was a very different scenario.

My expectations are a profound cooling of relations in terms of "soft-power", Bollywood/Bhangra "cultural representation", Yoga/Ahimsa-based popular perception etc. No longer will Indians be perceived by the average liberal American as an adorable race of harmless Munchkins who sing and dance dressed up in all sorts of pretty colours. The mainstream media narrative, bolstered by Jihadi funding to a vast number of organizations including private media (NYT, WaPo), public media (NPR), the "Human Rights" industry (HRW, Amnesty), activist politicians (Senators and Congressmen involved with USCIRF) will focus on representing Hindus as Nazi majoritarian monsters and Muslims as universal victims.

The MAIN thrust of this assault will not be to target Modi or GOI directly. It will be to deeply divide Indian-Americans (meaning Hindu-Americans-- the Muslims and Sikhs are either hostile or neutral to Modi anyway) on the question of supporting Modi. It is well known that Modi has a lot of US-based NRI support that translates into funding. Hindu-Americans will now be the focus of a "media-shaming" campaign more intensive than ever before: either you speak out against Modi, or you are a fascist. This will promote toxic discord amongst circles of long-time friends and extended families in our Indian-American communities, and most tragically, will inspire many US-born Hindu kids (already subjected to an endless litany of Woke propaganda on campus) to reject their foreign-born Indian-American parents as "anti-Muslim bigots".

And knowing that "we are like this only", I'm sorry to say that I expect many Hindu-Americans to fall victim to this shaming campaign. The results will be extremely beneficial to the Democrats. As we have seen, US politics are in an era where a few thousand, even a few hundred votes can tip the results of an election. Immigrant communities that know how to organize themselves and vote in a strategic, disciplined manner are even MORE important than immigrant communities that have wealth to donate to politicians-- this is a big reason why CAIR and ICNA have gained tremendous influence as Muslim vote-brokers. In contrast, a divided Hindu-American community is a politically neutered Hindu-American community. Even if half of them go over to the Republicans next time, the other half will be more than happy to generously fund, support, and vote for the Democrats. Net zero influence.

[Rudradev]

Anotny Blinken gave a talk at the Hudson Institute in which he expressed "concerns about India" including cashmere and citizenship in the last year. That excludes him of being a friend of India.

Jake Sullivan did give an interview with the New Yorker, which was not good for India, but at the same time he didn't object to its publication.

Burns, Blinken and Sullivan represent a return to policies of 30 years ago concerning India.

Blinken did not give a talk at the Hudson Institute expressing concerns about India. He gave an interview to Walter Russell Mead.
https://www.hudson.org/research/16210-t ... ny-blinken

Here is Mead's question, which is 100% leading in the Bash-Modi direction (Walter Russell Mead is a Republican, by the way):

I think you make some very good points there. I’m thinking though about, say, a country like India and we’re probably the environmental and labor standards that we might want or some American civil groups might want in a trade agreement are going to be disturbing where the environmental problems, strongly green US administration’s likely to be asking India to do a fairly long list of things it doesn’t want to do necessarily we spontaneously leap to want to do and in the same way on maybe some human rights and democracy issues particularly with respect to Muslims in India, in Kashmir, and elsewhere, and yet at the same time, it’s hard to imagine an effective policy vis a vis China that doesn’t include very strong US-India links.

I guess my question is, how does, again, you can’t possibly give a detailed exposition of India policy but how do we think about these things together because it seems to me they do really matter.

Here is Blinken's answer in which he mostly emphasizes the positive aspects. He does mention "concerns" vaguely at the end but if he had not, then he would have been accused of evading a "leading question".

I couldn’t agree more, Walter, with the premise of your question and I think from Vice President Biden’s perspective, strengthening and deepening the relationship with India is going to be a very high priority. It’s usually important to the future of the Indo-Pacific and the kind of order that we all want; it’s fair, stable, and hopefully increasingly democratic and it’s vital to being able to tackle some of these big global challenges.

By the way, I think this has been over Republican and Democratic administration’s success story, going back to the Clinton administration, the Bush administration and then the Obama-Biden administration.

During the Bush administration, then Senator Biden partnered with that administration to help get the peaceful nuclear cooperation agreement, the 123 agreement through the United States Senate, usually important to solidifying our relationship.

In our own administration, during the Obama-Biden administration, there was concrete progress across a whole series of initiatives and efforts under both Prime Minister Singh and then under Prime Minister Modi. There was this defense technology and trade initiative. The idea there was to kind of strengthen India’s defense industrial base and that then paved the way for American and Indian companies to work together to produce important technology.

We made India a so called major defense partner. That was something that we got the congress to approve and that was unique to India. What that did is it basically ensured that when it comes to advance sensitive technology that India needs to strengthen its military, it’s treated on par with our allies and partners.

Having sort of set that foundation and made the relationship stronger, guess what? We then worked hard to persuade India that it would be more prosperous and more secure if it’s signed on to the Paris Climate Agreement. We succeeded. It wasn’t easy. It was for the all the reasons that you cited. It was a challenging effort but Vice President Biden was one of the leaders of the effort to convince our partners in India and they did. I think that’s a reflection, again, of the fact that we cannot solve common global challenges without India as part of the deal.

Across the board, we were working hard, not just to advance clean energy, but to do a whole series of things, public health cooperation, space exploration, humanitarian relief operations, all of these things were part and parcel of the relationship and all of them went to strengthening it.

Now, you’re right, we obviously have challenges now and real concerns, for example, about some of the actions that the government has taken particularly in cracking down on freedom of movement and freedom of speech in Kashmir, some of the laws on citizenship but you’re always better engaging with a partner and a vitally important one like India, when you can speak frankly and directly about areas where you have differences even as you’re working to build greater cooperation and strengthen the relationship going forward. That would be the approach and again, I think we’ve seen evidence that it works.

As one can see, the last paragraph of Blinken's answer contains the only negative reference. And it is in answer to a leading question in an interview.

This is a very far cry from William Burns going to CEIP and giving a Modi/India-bashing lecture of his own volition.

All said and done I don't think any of these people is a "friend" of India. But only one of them has actually taken it upon himself to voluntarily attack the Modi government and actively repeat the propaganda of the Islamists.

[Mort Walker]

The incoming administration knows that it has 2 years to impact domestic policy decisions and could well lose one or both houses of congress by Jan. 2023. Historically, when administrations of either party are looking to "make achievements" when hands are tied domestically, it will be in the international arena. Trade deals and military interventions.

What has been stated is that alliances with Europe will be re-established and US foreign policy goals will be coordinated with western European countries.

[Najunamar]

Mortji, Yes, when there's a difficult domestic climate they will look to foreign policy front for any quick wins. But, between rejoining Paris climate accord, Iran agreement resurrection and rebuilding ties with Western Europe allies I am hoping the Biden administration will have very little room to scratch the anti-India itch we know is very much present. My big fear is with a slew of elections and Burns-led CIA there will be huge push to support anti-national parties like DMK, TMC etc.

[Rudradev]

Engaging in a military intervention is virtually guaranteed to lose the Democrats their Senate and Congress majorities. It is the one thing that is both unpopular among the Squad Left in Biden's own party and will also give the MAGA people a nice fat stick to beat him with.

[KLNMurthy]

The incoming administration knows that it has 2 years to impact domestic policy decisions and could well lose one or both houses of congress by Jan. 2023. Historically, when administrations of either party are looking to "make achievements" when hands are tied domestically, it will be in the international arena. Trade deals and military interventions.

What has been stated is that alliances with Europe will be re-established and US foreign policy goals will be coordinated with western European countries.

Also, Biden is on record as wanting to reinstate the Iran nuclear deal ASAP (Democratic primaries).

If he is able to do that, look for Iran to move away from business with India and make hostile moves against India—cashmere etc. Plus a likely Iran-Pakistan rapprochement, with China well inside the tent.

[Mort Walker]

Foreign meddling comes after the loss of one or both houses of congress. Wrt India, policy will be coordinated with the Western European countries to ensure India doesn’t “step out of line” where quick pressure can be brought upon it.

In any case, let’s wait until the new regime takes over next week and the “great reset” begins. Trade and restriction of US based SM may become issues.

[Vips]

US President-elect Biden picks Kurt Campbell as Indo-Pacific coordinator: What the choice means for India.

The incoming Biden-Harris administration, on Wednesday, announced that it has appointed senior American diplomat Kurt M Campbell as its 'Indo-Pacific coordinator' days before President-elect Biden is sworn into the White House.

Campbell has previously served as the US' leading diplomat for Asia under the Barack Obama administration and is regarded as one of the key architects of the US' 'pivot to Asia' strategy focusing on a rebalancing of US resources in the region.

Since his exit from government, the 63-year old has led the Asia Group consultancy while serving as an advisor to the Biden campaign. He is also the co-founder of the Center for a New American Security think tank.

A transition spokeswoman noted, “I can confirm Kurt will be Coordinator for the Indo-Pacific at the NSC (White House National Security Council).”

Incidentally, the move to appoint Campbell comes just a day after the White House declassified a document discussing the Trump administration's appraisal and objectives of the Indo-Pacific region that cited India as a 'counterbalance' to the growing influence of China in the region.

Under the Trump administration, Washington-New Delhi ties have thrived, particularly across defence and security, with trade in these areas expected to exceed US$20 billion imminently. It is also worth noting that, while Russia remains India's largest defence trade partner, New Delhi's reliance on Moscow for arms imports has lessened over the last decade.

Having served as the assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs during the Obama era, Campbell will be keenly aware of the emerging geopolitical shift towards the Indo-Pacific region.

In an article co-authored with Rush Doshi from the Brookings Institution, Campbell notes that “the principal challenge facing the United States is to bridge European and regional approaches to Chinese challenges,” also drawing attention particularly to the recent bilateral investment treaty inked between China and the European Union that, among other concessions, provides European nations with long-coveted access to lucrative Chinese markets.

Moreover, in his 'Advancing the Rebalance to Asia and the Pacific' strategy document drawn up while serving under President Obama, Campbell makes note of the strategy's success in “deepening partnerships” with India stating that increasing “US engagement with India in the Asia Pacific and the Indian Ocean region is an important element of the Rebalance. We welcome India's positive role in ensuring a stable, peaceful, and prosperous region.”

In this regard, several analysts have contended that Campbell's appointment confirms that President-elect Biden does not intend to drastically deviate from the Trump administration's foreign policy posture towards New Delhi.

Campbell has also advocated for a D-10 – effectively a coalition of ten democracies – originally proposed by the United Kingdom, that would include all G-7 nations including Australia, India and South Korea. His appointment may also yield a greater push towards the concretisation of the Quad bloc – something which India, strategically speaking, stands to gain significantly from.

[KLNMurthy]

Mortji, Yes, when there's a difficult domestic climate they will look to foreign policy front for any quick wins. But, between rejoining Paris climate accord, Iran agreement resurrection and rebuilding ties with Western Europe allies I am hoping the Biden administration will have very little room to scratch the anti-India itch we know is very much present. My big fear is with a slew of elections and Burns-led CIA there will be huge push to support anti-national parties like DMK, TMC etc.

As Rudradev pointed out in his analysis, calling the Biden administration anti-India is overstating the case. India is not enough of a factor for them to actively pursue an anti-India policy.

I imagine Indian entities like the DMK, AAP, TMC, even MIM would love to get their hands on some CIA funds. Maybe they’ll get some, CIA typically has lots of unaccounted cash to throw around.

That’s not the same thing as, India (South Asia I suppose) desk in state department (which runs the CIA) getting a solid budget allocation with a task to destabilize India and do color revolutions.

Buying Indian elections is not as cheap as it used to be, even with USD exchange rate. My sense is that the spare change that I think will be allocated to India won’t be enough.

Of course we can’t rule anything out—one scenario is Pakistan managing to get a bigger budget allocated to “South Asia” and then manipulating the already-biased Burns CIA into spending real money on Indian elections.

[Mort Walker]

I don't know how much William Burns is an interventionist, but Jake Sullivan and Antony Blinken were involved in the Arab Spring and Ukraine revolution. None of these 3 gives us much confidence on the future of India-US relations given past history and the Democratic Party platform.

https://buildbackbetter.gov/nominees-an ... -security/

[nam]

If the new administration considers China a threat, then the current dispensation in delhi is very pro-US and anti-China. I don't see why US would want to jeopardize a dream come true of allying a major Asia power and future top 3 GDP.

Even if they want to bring down the current party in power, the resultant opposition is not pro-US. What is the advantage of it? No amount of human rights noise is going to make much of a difference, other than some tv circus. It might make some tv people happy, that's about it, but makes no difference to GoI.

What will US ask us to do? Talk to Pak? Tell them we will talk, when they shutdown terror, which will never happen. Any terror attack, we respond rapidly, before US comes in between.

Ask us to make a compromise with the Chinese and let them have F4? why? the situation is perfect for them. The LAC situation has suddenly made Japan & Australia feel like best chums with us. A 1.3B population country on their side, it is fantastic for them.

[Mort Walker]

The incoming administration sees foreign policy as one which is coordinated primarily with its traditional, similarly minded values, western European allies and Japan. Right now the EU has moved back to rapprochement with China on the comprehensive agreement on investment. The EU will inhibit any US coordination which would be seen as confrontational to China. Please see the following article from ORF by Samir Saran:
From Xi with love: A New Year greeting to the new POTUS

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is betting that America Inc. will prefer to devote resources to lobby Washington for a rapprochement with Beijing rather than contend with fragmentation and the attendant loss of profits.

[Bart S]

ANI
@ANI
United States tells India that it is unlikely to get a waiver on S-400 purchase from Russia: Reuters.

[nam]

The choice to be confrontational to China or not, is not going to be decided by the US. China will force US hand.

If US shows friendly attitude towards the Chinese, this will make the CCP more confident of it's plans on SCS, taiwan and even LAC. US would have been very happy with the G2 setup, if the CCP had behaved. It is the CCP behavior which is causing the confrontation, because they think their time has come.

A friendly US will embolden the CCP, just like what happened with us.

[chetak]

ANI
@ANI
United States tells India that it is unlikely to get a waiver on S-400 purchase from Russia: Reuters.

and so it begins...........

the biden squeeze.

even before trump leaves, the deep state strikes.

[Rudradev]

ANI
@ANI
United States tells India that it is unlikely to get a waiver on S-400 purchase from Russia: Reuters.

"United States" tells India implies that it is the current US administration saying this... no?

Meaning the same administration that once said we could have a waiver on S400 purchase is going back on its agreement?

I don't understand how even that is possible. Once a purchase is made on the basis of certain agreements & understandings, it is made. India purchased the S400 years ago (it is just taking forever to get delivered). So where is the question of a "waiver" now?

DDM.

[KLNMurthy]

ANI
@ANI
United States tells India that it is unlikely to get a waiver on S-400 purchase from Russia: Reuters.

and so it begins...........

the biden squeeze.

even before trump leaves, the deep state strikes.

A more detailed quote from the article tells us that this is a continuation of Trump administration policy, nothing new has begun. It is an inference based on an expectation that Biden will be "even tougher" on Russia, and not directly related to US's India policy, or any statement by incoming Biden administration about India.

The Trump administration has been telling the Indians to drop the $5.5 billion deal for five missile systems and avoid a diplomatic crisis, saying New Delhi did not have a wide waiver from a 2017 U.S. law aimed at deterring countries from buying Russian military hardware.

That position is unlikely to change under the Biden administration that takes over next week and that has promised an even tougher U.S. approach towards Russia, the people aware of the discussions told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The OP should have posted a link to the news story, instead of just a selective & misleading scare headline:

Exclusive: India's friction with U.S. rises over planned purchase of Russian S-400 defence systems