2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

ManSingh · Post by **ManSingh** » 21 Jan 2021 03:13

vijayk wrote:Is this Govt. capitulating just to have a smooth Republic day celebration?

No. The suggestion for suspension of farm laws till the implementation of laws can be worked out comes from Dr. Ashok Gulati - one of the remaining three members of the Supreme court appointed committee.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 21 Jan 2021 03:30

In Hindi. It's funny

Nidhi Razdan & Harvard Fraud: Online Phishing or Well Planned Fraud?

After watching this video and other comments on this thread, it does appear to be more sinister than originally thought. There was some game going on here because she claimed on SM that she is actively teaching at Harvard. That seems too far fetched for even average pappu but then pappu's friends are even lower grade morons than him.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 21 Jan 2021 05:38

ManSingh wrote:
vijayk wrote:Is this Govt. capitulating just to have a smooth Republic day celebration?
No. The suggestion for suspension of farm laws till the implementation of laws can be worked out comes from Dr. Ashok Gulati - one of the remaining three members of the Supreme court appointed committee.

I don't think that they want to go into the upcoming state elections carrying an anti farmer tag.

a longish break may well diffuse the charged up hotheads and perhaps the advantages of these laws could be more easily demonstrated or disseminated

the govt also needs to break the hawala funding chain that feeds into many sickular protests happening in India

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 21 Jan 2021 06:48

ManSingh wrote:
vijayk wrote:Is this Govt. capitulating just to have a smooth Republic day celebration?
No. The suggestion for suspension of farm laws till the implementation of laws can be worked out comes from Dr. Ashok Gulati - one of the remaining three members of the Supreme court appointed committee.

So if taxpayers go out on the road and protest, income tax laws could be suspended for a couple of years....

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 21 Jan 2021 07:13

This is the Rubaiya Sayeed moment for this government. Now that they have succumbed to threats of violence and blackmailing there is no saying what happens next.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 21 Jan 2021 08:23

How is conceding to our own people, however extortionist, equivalent to the blackmail of Muslim terrorists?

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 21 Jan 2021 08:27

chetak wrote:...
I don't think that they want to go into the upcoming state elections carrying an anti farmer tag.

a longish break may well diffuse the charged up hotheads and perhaps the advantages of these laws could be more easily demonstrated or disseminated
...

Well said. When I originally read the headlines, the emotions of anger, frustration were immediate. But after several long deep breadths and few hours away from headlines helped bring back some clarity in thinking, just like what govt. is dealing with these hot headed so-called farmers.

It is easy for armchair warriors to quickly jump to conclusions, but what does armchair warriors (including news channel, and YouTube pundits) know about running a country like India, let alone make bold policy improvements. Two steps forward, one step back is perfectly fine at this point. No need to act like a Bollywood hero. Heard on some news channels, where farmers are saying that govt. is scared. If that is what takes to send these retards back to their farms, so be it.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 21 Jan 2021 08:52

sanjaykumar wrote:How is conceding to our own people, however extortionist, equivalent to the blackmail of Muslim terrorists?

The anti-CAA tukde tukde gang were "our people" too, as were those who designed and executed the Delhi riots . Btw, those who kidnapped Rubaiya Sayeed too were technically our people, it wasn't until early 90s when pakis started pushing a large number of foreign terrorists into Kashmir. The ones leading the siege on Delhi's borders and backed by SJW and BKI are no friends of India or her interests. What course will the government have if CAA crowd regroups, takesover Delhi the same way and asks for reversal of CAA ?

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 21 Jan 2021 09:16

Do the tukde gang think of themselves as our people? Does Rana Ayub? Her itch is precisely because she knows she will never be considered our people.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 21 Jan 2021 09:25

So the BIF will use this template to block any further reform, and the real tough ones are ahead, like UCC. If the govt really stays these farm bills (it is only a proposal for now), they are going to have more trouble down the road, and risk becoming a lame-duck govt for the remainder of the term. Most of the vocal Modi supporters around me (all middle class folks among friends and family) are pretty pissed with this latest announcement, and their sentiment too matters, given that they actually haven't been benefited in any perceivable way, but have been solidly behind Modi. While this one issue may not make people change their vote, the further trajectory of this govt will influence their perception. We can't really blame them - not all would be BRF-certified jingos, 99% are actually "let me live my life and support my family with dignity and happiness" and would vote for those they think would provide that bare minimum. We jingoes who can influence friends and family are quite few and far between, so we can only do so much.

I do hope there is some other method behind this madness. Shorn of all chankiangiri, ordinary folks do see this as an abject capitulation onlee. As for me, at this point, only my BRF antennae are making me hold my horses and see what unfolds.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 21 Jan 2021 09:59

Sometimes it’s sufficient to give enough rope so that one hangs oneself.

The agitation was not well thought out. There is some negative fallout, the household opinion matters. There will be no more approaching Panjab only with kid gloves. I can foresee a discussion of pesticide residues in wheat, desertification of panjab, consumerist action, tough questions asked come stubble burning time. Accountability for disenfranchisement of the majority of the Panjab population. The whole issue of subsidies to wealthy farmers will be opened, likely supported by small farmers.

There can be no end to pressure points.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 21 Jan 2021 10:01

the amount of dhoti shivering in this forum is beyond compare.
Everybody chill and enjoy hot jalebis for breakfast.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 21 Jan 2021 11:45

^^^The fellow is doing it well. Those jalebis are closer to imarti as he takes it out of the hot oil and puts it in the syrup solution. The jalebis haven't hardened yet and they absorb the syrup much better. Some protest when you go gourmet style!

At 2:48 the fellow handing out the jalebis is wearing a silk screened hoodie stating "No Farmers No Food".

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 21 Jan 2021 12:12

ofSo I just read an article disputing Amit Shahs claim in the parliament that the Hindu population of tsp reduced from 23% to what it is today, about 3.5%. the basic premise of said article was that the are no real numbers to hang this claim on.

Anyone have a source for this reduction in the numbers?. Here is the link to the "fact check":
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.indiat ... 2019-12-12

Dileep · Post by **Dileep** » 21 Jan 2021 12:18

chetak wrote:
ManSingh wrote:
No. The suggestion for suspension of farm laws till the implementation of laws can be worked out comes from Dr. Ashok Gulati - one of the remaining three members of the Supreme court appointed committee.
So if taxpayers go out on the road and protest, income tax laws could be suspended for a couple of years....

Sure thing, Chetak Ji. First of all please find a few thousands of tax payers willing to camp for a few months at the choke points of Dilli, do Gandhigiri and stonewall the discussions.

You need to respect your adversary for his strengths. The #FarmerBrokers did a great job in organizing and running the show, and an impressive narrative going. I will grade it in the same grade of a military plan. Must have got a lot of external help. Soros, anyone?

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 21 Jan 2021 12:40

These riots are the response to 2019 elections, they are well planned funded and with good Media backing, its a minefield against a very well established Ecosystem, and in Politics only the stupid appear to be very strong, Miltarily it helps to show you are strong man for the Country by it never helps to show you are using force against your domestic opponents, the BIF strategy and coordination has been top notch.

kit · Post by **kit** » 21 Jan 2021 14:37

Dileep wrote:
chetak wrote:
You need to respect your adversary for his strengths. The #FarmerBrokers did a great job in organizing and running the show, and an impressive narrative going. I will grade it in the same grade of a military plan. Must have got a lot of external help. Soros, anyone?

Valid point there , some one had posted before that the "farmers" were not using mobiles or using some other messaging system to organise things., they also seemed to have more local efforts to procure food and amenities with support of "local people" and even "aid agencies" from kanada !! .. pretty sure the IB would have a good idea of what is going on !!

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 21 Jan 2021 15:03

vimal wrote:the amount of dhoti shivering in this forum is beyond compare.
Everybody chill and enjoy hot jalebis for breakfast.

How do they manage to get LPG refills? The national highway on Singhu border is not an address that IOC will recognise.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 21 Jan 2021 15:26

nandakumar wrote:
vimal wrote:the amount of dhoti shivering in this forum is beyond compare.
Everybody chill and enjoy hot jalebis for breakfast.

How do they manage to get LPG refills? The national highway on Singhu border is not an address that IOC will recognise.

khujliwal is supplying them along with a whole host of other logistics.

He has his beady, jaundiced and evil eye on the coming punjab, haryana elections

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 21 Jan 2021 16:30

Ambar wrote:By bringing in the farm act and now trying hard to reverse it the government has only managed to lose both its face and those farmers who supported these bills in all but 2 states.

Tanaji wrote:GoI has no options and it is kicking the can down the road. Some may call it chanakya niti but it is what it is.

If indeed the government has NO option, then perhaps it should now look at its own intelligence agencies. Looks like IB etc are not able to give any predictive analysis to GoI even when mass movements are happening. Anti-CAA & Shaheenbag was a first, and they may have missed it. But now this is the second time. And perhaps this would not be the last as well. I except a similar thing to happen if and when the CAA's Rules are promulgated. A.Shah said he would do it after COVID situation improves.

Perhaps BJP run state governments should try to implement state specific Acts similar to the Farm laws, so that sentiments of farmers who preferred the new laws are respected. But it is an open question that in how many such states the APMC & "Mandi" system exists. Karnataka for sure has it.

ManSingh wrote:The suggestion for suspension of farm laws till the implementation of laws can be worked out comes from Dr. Ashok Gulati

So is it the case that Rules for the new Farm laws are not in place and the suggestion is to wait till that happens? Even in practical terms; an Act without an associated Rules is often a paper tiger. Even the much hyped up CAA is still to see the associated Rules being implemented. And till that happens various agencies can ignore the CAA. Don't know if BJP's grand plan is to roll out Acts and get a pat on the back, and then just ignore the Rules part.

arshyam wrote: Most of the vocal Modi supporters around me (all middle class folks among friends and family) are pretty pissed with this latest announcement, and their sentiment too matters, given that they actually haven't been benefited in any perceivable way, but have been solidly behind Modi.

I for one am pissed on the CAA Rules part. I am very cynical on this aspect and now with the farmer broker gang succeeding in their extortions, the peacefools are going to improvise Shaheen Baug pretty soon. And for every major national event (Ind. Day?) they can organize these kind of Delhi based rioting and ask for roll back of every single law. CAA will be first, and then J&K stuff would come in later.

kit wrote:pretty sure the IB would have a good idea of what is going on !!

I really doubt it. IB has not been even able to predict/report movements of people to a specific destination. Communication can be done using modes which cannot be easily detected. But physical movement of people (in large numbers) cannot avoid detection. Especially that they have the Shaheen Baug incident to refer back to. And when it comes to detection of smuggling, terorist activities etc; again I think things are not really improving. In Kerala itself there was an initial euophoria of gold smuggling, terror funding etc with all except one central agencies getting involved. It has been nearly 4 months now, nothing much has happened and not even one case has reached the 'filing of charge sheet' stage. And this is when Ajit Doval was said to be personally supervising the investigations

.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 21 Jan 2021 17:07

I would not be so sure that the GOI has no options WRT the 3 farm laws. If it was totally out of options. Then we would have seen Farmers agitation around the country at all district HQ and block level towns. We are not seeing it. At least not in the news media at this time. All we are seeing are people from Punjab and parts of Haryana.

Secondly the all India strike called for in the 8th of December would have succeeded but it did not. So hold the line and not give in to intransigence from the perpetual nay sayers.

Modi will know all this.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 21 Jan 2021 17:51

It could be that the government is just tied up with the whole Covid vaccination program as by any estimates this is a huge undertaking. This is causing everything else to drop on the floor.

Or the government has more inputs than we are privy to regarding the plans of Khalistanis and do not want a confrontation right at start of the Biden presidency. If this is the case then it is disappointing to say the least.

Adrija · Post by **Adrija** » 21 Jan 2021 19:56

I for one would continue to have faith in the Modi government........ he has performed so far... so let us have patience.. he deserves it

IMHO of course

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 21 Jan 2021 20:24

vimal wrote:In Hindi. It's funny
Nidhi Razdan & Harvard Fraud: Online Phishing or Well Planned Fraud?

After watching this video and other comments on this thread, it does appear to be more sinister than originally thought. There was some game going on here because she claimed on SM that she is actively teaching at Harvard. That seems too far fetched for even average pappu but then pappu's friends are even lower grade morons than him.

I can't believe people still get fooled by this. I know of a professor in a fairly prestigious institution in India who fell for this back in 2000 or so. He got a detailed email informing him he was selected for a highly-paid position at one of the UN organizations. He engaged in correspondence with the sender, followed instructions, made all preparations, told everyone he was leaving, got his PhD students assigned to other colleagues, and told the department chair he was about to send a resignation letter.....and at the last minute he started getting requests for depositing funds in advance to cover his first 2 months as a new arrival in New York.

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 21 Jan 2021 20:50

^^^ OMG has Nidhi or Miyan then deposited funds and get conned big time!!

How do we get to uncover this??
This will be bigger iscandle than 'Doornob Chaat-masala'

shravanp · Post by **shravanp** » 21 Jan 2021 21:20

vimal wrote:In Hindi. It's funny
Nidhi Razdan & Harvard Fraud: Online Phishing or Well Planned Fraud?

After watching this video and other comments on this thread, it does appear to be more sinister than originally thought. There was some game going on here because she claimed on SM that she is actively teaching at Harvard. That seems too far fetched for even average pappu but then pappu's friends are even lower grade morons than him.

It has to be a well planned fraud. All that talk of phishing etc is hot gas. Even though Nidhi is totally capable of falling for phishing scam, this Harvard episode is certainly more than that.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 21 Jan 2021 21:54

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/pune-majo ... a-building

5 dead

A major fire engulfed one of the buildings situated within the Serum Institute of India (SII)'s plant here on Thursday afternoon (21 January), officials said. There are no immediate reports of casualties.

Thick clouds of smoke could be seen billowing out of one of the buildings in the SII complex at Gopalpatti, though company officials remained tightlipped on the development.

At least 10 fire-tenders from Pune Fire Brigade rushed to the site and were battling the blaze, the cause of which is not clear.

WOW! Chinkoos were able to get their hands on SII msot probably with the help of PAPPU and his gang in MH

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 21 Jan 2021 21:55

Farmers reject govt's proposal to suspend new farm laws for 18 months
It is very obvious that the 'farmer broker gang' is itching for a fight. Yesterday Dilli Pulis officials had met the gang leaders and said that their Tractor Rally cannot be allowed on the Outer Ring Road. Another road was suggested by the police, which the gang refused to accept. So it is very obvious that the 'farmer broker gang' from Punjab have far more ulterior motives, with messing up with Republic Day just being the smallest of them. The bigger goal is to make the elected government fail from functioning effectively.

By the way; is the Parliament in session at this time? Because 'repealing an Act' is also done through another Act, which goes through the Parilament for due diligence and approval. An Act which is in force cannot be repealed via an executive order. So repealing these laws is not going to happen before Jan 26th.

kosminari · Post by **kosminari** » 21 Jan 2021 22:19

Social pressure on Punjabis (Hindus and Sikhs) and Sikhs living out of Punjab is at criminal levels. Anyone supporting farm bills is threatened, boycotted and getting fined. This is indeed a crucial moment in Indian history as Deep Sidhu said

will define the next political structure of this whole geopolitics of South Asia.

Modi government cannot tell the size of the chest and expose soft underbelly by suspending the bills. Not sure if anyone watching Punjabi Youtube channels where these union leaders love to give bytes after coming out of meetings, its unbelievable how brazenly they talk about writ of the government or rather lack of it. They even made fun of NIA summons and many of them did not attend or cared about. Very hard to watch as mango man how the government with brute majority of 303 seats chickening out. If this protest gets what they want, life of a Punjabi Hindus will be made miserable and Khalistan will raise its ugly head. Khalistanis will get the opportunity to teach neutral Sikhs that Hindu is coward hence do not have a right to rule.

I cannot understand what is stopping from government machinery to remove them from highways. If protestors understand language of violence why Modi ji is talking peace to them. If Modiji is scared of getting label of Anti-sikh, Sorry anyone believed to be pro-hindu is automatically anti-minority in India, but may be he is also eyeing Noble peace prize for acting coward when country needs you most.

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 21 Jan 2021 22:35

Ambar wrote:
manjgu wrote:
Thats a very jaundiced view of things. 1) farm bill finds great support amongst all classes more so the middle class and farmers as well ( except punjab/haryana). in a 4 cornered contest in punjab ( AAP, BJp, COngress, Akalis) , BJP might come out trumps. while every seat is imp, punjab, Haryana do not figure v importantly in BJP's electoral calculation. 2) while elections are important but not everything. if the country is being steered in right directions with CAA, farm bills, triple talaq then its good and will find support. country is bigger than party. CAA, TT has brought middle class strongly in Modis corner. chaos and protests are part of our chaotic democracy. 3) opposing everything that Modi does is work of congress/opposition. strong decisions will bring protests,chaos but then this is the price country has to pay. 4) Did abolition of 370 bring any relief to middle class ..NO. but yet there is strong support for it. so please dont underestimate Modi. 5) everybody is for improving adminsitration, bureaucracy, clever policy implementaiton..thats a no brainer.
You are assuming Congress is naïve and won't reverse the laws the minute they come to power. Also, the chances of BJP winning PJ in a 4 way or even a two way contest is slimmer than Pakis ruling the ummah from the moon (TM Zaid Zaman Hamid). Haryana has Khattar who is as lackluster as Yeddiyurappa in KA, even if the coalition survives the chances of him coming to power again is nill. The government needs to be clever and adapt to the environment they are operating in. Reshuffle the already long in the tooth cabinet, continuously improve the administrative efficiency , cut bureaucracy and don't expend political capital on things which you are unsure about implementing . By bringing in the farm act and now trying hard to reverse it the government has only managed to lose both its face and those farmers who supported these bills in all but 2 states.

Amber ..by your logic it seems congress has more chances of coming to power than BJP winning a 4 cornered contest in Punjab

!! i bow to ur political acumen. Reshuffle means nothing... Modi & Shah take a call on such important matters. well who was sure abt implementation of 370 etc etc. taking hard decision is the hallmark of Modi sarkar, u may not like it but thats another matter. Taking hard and bold steps is what has won BJP the elections. The current drama is political jostling. A fight for upcoming punjab elections..Amrinder/ congress has lit another fire. the khalistanis can try again but its not going to get far.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 21 Jan 2021 22:42

manjgu wrote: Amber ..by your logic it seems congress has more chances of coming to power than BJP winning a 4 cornered contest in Punjab !! i bow to ur political acumen. Reshuffle means nothing... Modi & Shah take a call on such important matters. well who was sure abt implementation of 370 etc etc. taking hard decision is the hallmark of Modi sarkar, u may not like it but thats another matter. Taking hard and bold steps is what has won BJP the elections. The current drama is political jostling. A fight for upcoming punjab elections..Amrinder/ congress has lit another fire. the khalistanis can try again but its not going to get far.

Hope you are right manjguji ...

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 21 Jan 2021 22:57

kosminari wrote:Social pressure on Punjabis (Hindus and Sikhs) and Sikhs living out of Punjab is at criminal levels. Anyone supporting farm bills is threatened, boycotted and getting fined. This is indeed a crucial moment in Indian history as Deep Sidhu said will define the next political structure of this whole geopolitics of South Asia

.....
.....

Interesting post.... This is what I was referring to... the government dare not act against them as they probably have inputs on the Khalistani plan. Use police and we get violence which will be highlighted at international fora. Do nothing and the writ of GoI does not run. Captain Amarinder Singh knows this very well so he is keeping quiet.

The seeds of Khalistani resurrection are being laid before our very eyes. I have to admit this was very well played by then Khalistanis and the government is clueless on how to handle it.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 21 Jan 2021 23:17

After government's offer to stay new farm laws, now trade unions demand suspension of new labour codes and start discussion with central trade unions.

A very wrong precedent has been set.

every joker and his uncle will disregard the govt, parliament and courts, demanding laws be stayed and do whatever they want.

anarchy has been invited surreptitiously into the democratic discourse of the country and the commies & naxals are in like flynn.

from the economic times

“The central trade unions demanded that all the four codes should be put on hold and then discussions should start with the central trade unions on each of the Labour Codes afresh in the true spirit of bipartite and tripartite consultations,” the trade unions said in a joint statement issued after the physical meeting

ps

"In like Flynn" is a slang phrase meaning "having quickly or easily achieved a goal or gained access as desired".

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 21 Jan 2021 23:32

bullywood third rung and third rate mafia rate card

every enticiable, bum and rum seeking movie "critic" needs to be paid like the presstitutes that they are

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 22 Jan 2021 00:05

manjgu wrote: Amber ..by your logic it seems congress has more chances of coming to power than BJP winning a 4 cornered contest in Punjab !! i bow to ur political acumen. Reshuffle means nothing... Modi & Shah take a call on such important matters. well who was sure abt implementation of 370 etc etc. taking hard decision is the hallmark of Modi sarkar, u may not like it but thats another matter. Taking hard and bold steps is what has won BJP the elections. The current drama is political jostling. A fight for upcoming punjab elections..Amrinder/ congress has lit another fire. the khalistanis can try again but its not going to get far.

I am not sure if i am following your post, what do you mean by "seems congress has more chances of coming to power than BJP winning a 4 cornered contest in Punjab

" ? Isn't Congress already in power in PJ ? PJ does not face strong anti-incumbency wave like WB that BJP can quickly build the infrastructure necessary to fight elections against INC,SAD or AAP. AAP benefited from Khalistani pandering but even then they couldn't get too far putting a dent on INC, BJP with an image as a "Hindu party" will get no such sympathies.

If all decisions are to be made by Modi and Shah then Cabinet is irrelevant, however there is a limit to what two individuals can do and hence you need a sound team and not duds like Athawale, Javedkar, Ravishankar Prasad or Tomar. The point i am trying to make is that the government does not have endless time on its hands, BJP may retain power in 2024 or they may not. And in case they don't then their time is well spent on smoothening administration and bureaucratic process than spend endless political capital on things like CAA/Farm bills which they are unsure if it can be implemented in the limited time they have on their hands, take the path of least resistance, else these "for optics" bills will prove expensive in the long run with little to no benefit on the ground.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 22 Jan 2021 01:50

^^ I don’t know if one should be too impressed by what some farm hand relates to a YouTube channel.

It is the culture in panjab’s villages to be boastful and aggressive. They call it masculinity. Others call it the spectacle of acting drunk without partaking. Don’t ask me why. I guess it impresses the ladies.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 22 Jan 2021 02:55

Proximity to Delhi makes a 2% state with no significant political clout dictate terms to a Govt that's in power with a big majority. It's not about merits of the law but just proximity to Delhi. Govt wouldn't have caved in if 10 times more farmers were protesting in Chennai.

https://twitter.com/ramprasad_c/status/ ... 36323?s=20

Punjabiyat has been a bane for the country

https://twitter.com/NarenMenon1/status/ ... 79776?s=20

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 22 Jan 2021 03:02

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 22 Jan 2021 04:05

Heheheh White a$$ lickers are a dime a dozen in India.

Kaivalya · Post by **Kaivalya** » 22 Jan 2021 06:24

Sadhguru on state controlled temples with focus on Tamil Nadu. Pretty much all the arguments that have been discussed in BRF are raised by the interviewer