2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

[pankajs]

Gents; what are your feelings on the farmer broker gang protests? To be frank, over the last two days I am not very happy to see how things are going. I was expecting things to be under control after Jan 26th, but looks like things are not going to end any time soon. Not even a single protest site has been cleared till date. Which means that any time hordes of farmer brokers can cause problems in NCR area. To add to the problem there is now also the Jatts & Khap Panchayath stuff getting involved in this. Both UP & Haryana state governments also seems to be now unable to control the situation. And Modi is again talking about communication lines being open etc. Though I agree that Modi (as PM) cannot openly recommend strong measures, I am unable to figure out why HA & UP state governments are now in a go-slow mode.
<snip>

I too was upset to hear that Modi had AGAIN offered to put the law on hold for 1.5 years while negotiations were held with farmers on the law.

Why was Modi offering the same "concessions" now that he had won the 1st round. It was ok to have offered it when he was under pressure before.

On further thought, it makes sense.

1. Modi, by offering the same "generous" concession now was playing the peace maker. It is not about what the so called "farmer leaders" think that is important but what the general population of India think that matters in the long run. By willing to bend, he was signalling his flexibility in contrast to the obstructionist stance of the "farmer leaders". BUT it does not end here ....

2. If the "farmer leaders" reject it again, no skin off Modi and he would have again made the point to the general population about his flexibility and humbleness and the "farmer leaders" obstructionist stance and their rigidity.

3. The "farmer leaders" have already rejected the offer. They can accept it now BUT that will only signal a climbdown to their core supporters and probably a sellout as well.

4. Plus, one of the condition is suspension of the law for 1.5 years is that the farmers camped outside Delhi would have to return to their farms. Now the "farmer leaders" and Modi realize that getting the same crowd back after a letdown will be far tougher for the "farmer leaders".

Plus, Modi gets a breather by diffusing the immediate crisis and get to focus on other high priority areas that demand his attention.

Plus, GOI gets to plan for the next confrontation better and in the mean time round up the malcontents at the 3rd and 4th tiers of the protest.

Plus, IFF the negotiations fail the "farmer leaders" would be shown to have been hoodwinked by GOI to their core supporters and thus loose whatever support they have enjoyed.

Not a good option for the "farmer leaders".

5. Also note UAPA has been applied to many of the "farmer leaders". Prior to the Red fort invasion that would simply not have been possible without making Modi look really bad.

Now, hardly anyone has batted an eyelid when the most stringent law has been slapped on the so called "farmer leaders". UAPA, itself may not lead to am immediate arrest forget long-term punishment to these so called "farmer leaders"

BUT the so called "farmer leaders" know that the sword hangs over their head now and it was not there before the Red fort invasion. They will realize that unless the are able to force Modi off the PMship, the UAPA sword in the hands of a weakened and a vengeful Modi will be very very dangerous for them.

6. Hopefully, by now, the "farmer leaders" have realized that a riot or a riot like situation is not in their interest for it makes for very bad optics and dents their public support in the general public.

7. The jocker in the pack is still the SC. Remember, the UAPA cases, the road blockage, the validity of the farm law, etc will all land at the doorsteps of the SC. Watch them very carefully. Modi, by making a concession on holding back the law for 1.5 years, has given the SC enough material to pressure the "farmer leaders" to accept negotiation and vacate the protest site. The SC's wishes can be defied but that will only add to the obstructionist tag to the "farmer leaders".

In all this, one has to remember the real target of Modi's maneuvers are ordinary farmers and citizens who are NOT part of the protest. If he has them on his side he can deal with the protests without much political damage. That is the Modi's play. He is appearing soft because he want's public opinion on his side when he needs to get hard.

Rest everything should be understood in the above context. UP/Haryana are not independent actors.

This does not mean that Modi will get his wish and get an easy exit. The way things are shaping up, looks like we are in for an extended confrontation on this issues and a hot spring/summer.

[vijayk]

Pappu is in Germany. Some serious planning going on

[Sachin]

3. The "farmer leaders" have already rejected the offer. They can accept it now BUT that will only signal a climbdown to their core supporters and probably a sellout as well.

"Farmer broker leader" Tikait now wants cases against the farmers lodged after Jan 26 fiasco be with drawn. So it is not that "farmer brokers" don't have other points to negotiate.

[chetak]

[pankajs]

Does not matter what the "farmer leaders" want ...

Lets go back to the Red fort invasion for a moment. I was a success as far as the Khalisthani and Pakistanis where concerned but in the eye of the Indian public it was a massive failure of the "farmer leaders" and their image has taken a serious beating even the most diehard anti-Modi presstitutes have admitted.

The ultimate game is the perception amongst the masses who are not part of the protest. Modi has already offered a deal where he is seen as bending by offering to keep the law suspended for 1.5 years pending a negotiated outcome. The "farmer leaders" are free to reject that. Modi will come out as having humility while the "farmer leaders" will look obstinate. Modi wins the perception battle.

Now coming back to the UAPA cases ....

1. While GOI was able to slap the cases without a murmur after the Red fort invasion, it would have been impossible to do so before in the eyes of the public. Such cards don't fall into your lap everyday.

2. Police personal family are already out protesting the farmer "brutality". Looks like an engineered protest. Wonder why and by whom and to what purpose?

3. This is the best stick the GOI has over the "farmer leaders" that it gained so effortlessly and will not bargain away so easily.

The "farmer leaders" might again engineer chaos and/or riots or riot like situation in Delhi or its borders but again that will only backfire on them as the Red fort invasion has shown.

The joker in the deck is the SC. IF the SC backs the GOI given its "generous" proposal to suspend the farm law for 1.5 years pending negotiating, it will create enormous pressure on the "farmer leaders". After all, the "farmer leaders" need to go back to the SC for any relief on the UAPA if GOI does not give in! Also another reason why UAPA cases should not be withdrawn. Case of the hammer and the anvil ... A hammer without a anvil is nearly useless and so is an anvil without a hammer.

They might still reject the SC's prodding but that will only sour the perception of their "movement" in the eyes of the public plus and count against them when they approach the SC on UAPA and other matters.

So overall, while there will be chaos ahead, I think GOI still has the upper hand.

[Tanaji]

You are assuming the farmers broker Gang cares for the Supreme Court. They simply don’t. The attitude is give us what we want and nothing else. They don’t care for optics. It is now a matter of honour, caste, Delhi fateh and Hate BJp

[vijayk]

[chanakyaa]

Pappu is in Germany. Some serious planning going on

Hope he is meeting with his handler (Dhruv Rathee) in Germany Pappu has grandmothers all over Europe.

@pankajs +108, very well summarized. This was covertly political before and now overtly political after 26th. On political impact, I found the following video on Jat politics to be helpful. Unfortunately for the Delhi residents in areas impacted by protests, AS is in charge of both -- election machinery and in charge of law enforcement as HM.

Understanding Jat Politics of Western UP with Dhirendra Pundir and Sanjay Dixit

[chetak]

TMC and mumtaz begum will find it quite difficult to counter a feisty speaker like @smritiirani who is half bengali herself, so the outsider tag goes for a six...

Smriti Malhotra was born to a Bengali mother, Shibani Bagchi, and a Punjabi-Maharashtrian father, Ajay Kumar Malhotra. So expect her to be fluent in marathi as well to counter the likes of the thugs like the thugerays, pere et fils, and rats like some roadside rauts

Minister @smritiirani speaking in Bengali in Howrah today.

WATCH VIDEO
via@vasudha_ET

[darshan]

Don't people come out of IIT because of their ability to solve bigger problems? One would think that all IIT people would be on BRF.

Struggling to find Ambani and Adani here. Any better source that compiles Indian companies?

Somewhere I had read that Lays and PepsiCo control lot of farming in India. Probably haldiram also does it. Apart from other big ones already mentioned that are in atta and oil businesses like ITC. Patanjali also controls some.

I know that in Gujarat that there is a undocumented chain of halal farmers reporting to mosques. Not easy to quantify how much groups like this control.

https://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/mar ... assic=true
https://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/mar ... assic=true
https://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/mar ... assic=true
https://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/mar ... assic=true

[pankajs]

You are assuming the farmers broker Gang cares for the Supreme Court. They simply don’t. The attitude is give us what we want and nothing else. They don’t care for optics. It is now a matter of honour, caste, Delhi fateh and Hate BJp

Strange that you would write the above inspite of the evidence to the contrary is some cases and logic in others ...

1. My last post I talked of hammer and the anvil. The UAPA is the hammer and the SC is the Anvil. If the anvil does not clear the way, the hammer is going to make chutni out of the "farmer leaders".

NO one apart from Modi (Hammer) or SC(Anvil) can save them from UAPA .. If for nothing else they will knock the doors of the SC for UAPA. Anyone who thinks the "farmer leaders" do not fear the UAPA has not see the video of Tikait crying after the DM/Bolice met him asking him to vacate the site and handing him notice on UAPA. The notice under UAPA is what made him shit in his pants that evening.

He has regained his composure only after other political parties stepped in to bolster his morale the next day BUT nothing can save him from UAPA unless he cuts a deal with Modi or goes running to the SC for relief.

2. On optics ... I don't know what to say. Anyone who has followed the news even a bit would have noted the tone and tenor of the discourse post the Red fort invasion.

Some "farmer leaders" ran away from the protest site citing the optics and the rest of the motormouths have gone into a deep hole. Only after the opposition leaders started openly backing them some of them have started peeking out of the hole they had run into.

The rest including Tikait are vocal that the Red fort invasion is not their handiwork. Why are they so apologetic and deflecting blame if they don't care for the optics?

3. People are so forgetful ... There was a caste riot in Haryana in not too distant past where the Jaats went on rampage. That too was for "honor", "caste" and "fateh". What was the outcome of that riot? Did Modi regime fall?

Maybe Tikait will get jail and get more popular in a segment of the Jatt population but that is not going to change the dynamics on the ground.

One cannot have "fateh" over Modi by antagonizing rest of India or at even the rest of the Hindus. Optics matter ... they always have. Don't trust me on this, trust the "farmer leaders" words/actions immediately following the Red fort invasion and that of the presstitutes backing then.

[Ambar]

Rakesh and Naresh Tikait too will go back to being what they are, just local khap panchayat leaders of few districts in western UP , and someone who despite 50 yrs of political history struggles to win 10,000 votes.

If it was so simple and with these two Tikaits are non-entities, why is UP government unable to expel them from the protest site? How long will it take to block all entry points to this site, so that more people cannot reach the spot and then evict them by force? From what I read in MSM; UP government has actually even restored power and water to the protest site. Only free supply for food is now pending.

You cannot. The Tikait brothers power starts and ends in handful of districts in Western UP but they carry the tags of "chowdhary" of Jat community. Their father Mahendra Tikait had made a derogatory comment on Mayawati and dalits once, when Mayawati sent the police to arrest him it resulted in thousands of jats blocking the police and violence in many districts in western UP. The government needs to be smart and patient, identify the puppet masters of these agitation, identify their weak points, some have kids abroad (including one of Rakesh Tikait's son), some have business interests abroad and outside their territory within India, some have mistresses, some have powerful enemies..work on their weaknesses and needle them at a more opportune time.

Rahul Gandhi's foreign trips baffles me. In a world of encrypted communication he really need not fly to a foreign country to talk to his handlers and expose himself. Besides, given his IQ levels, it is very unlikely he is capable of orchestrating what we are seeing in Delhi today.

[pankajs]

<snip>

Now coming back to the UAPA cases ....

1. While GOI was able to slap the cases without a murmur after the Red fort invasion, it would have been impossible to do so before in the eyes of the public. Such cards don't fall into your lap everyday.

2. Police personal family are already out protesting the farmer "brutality". Looks like an engineered protest. Wonder why and by whom and to what purpose?

3. This is the best stick the GOI has over the "farmer leaders" that it gained so effortlessly and will not bargain away so easily.

<snip>

https://theprint.in/india/india-was-sho ... at/595750/
India was shocked by insult to Tricolour on Republic Day — PM Modi says in ‘Mann Ki Baat’

I have only followed this latest Delhi drama from 30,000 ft but to me it seems that the UAPA cases are primarily because of the Red fort invasion and the Indian flag disrespect issue.

Here is from the horses mouth how serious the GOI is about UAPA. For Modi to keep focus on "insult to Tricolour" means that GOI knows that this is a very effective way to pressure the so called "farmer leaders".

Modi could have easily let it pass but by talking it up Modi is signalling the so called "farmer leaders" about the seriousness with which GOI views the Red fort invasion.

[Tanaji]

Pankajs ji,

For #1, the Tikait gent is still there at the same location and has in fact called for reinforcements which are arriving every day. The end result is UAPA or not, they are still there. We are still back to square one, except that Tikait has cases against him. Cases matter if you get arrested, which this government has refused so far and won’t any time soon for fear of exacerbating the situation. So, this is a stalemate at best.

For #2, Yes there has been a notable change in the people’s perception FOR NOW. However, this gang is especially prone to wild conspiracy theories and the narrative gaining ground is that it was BJP who did it. This is helped by AAP that has its own agenda.

My intention was also to point out that if SC gives an order, the farmers are likely to reject it as they have with the Committee. This is assuming SC delivers on the side of GoI in the first place of which there is no guarantee.

[chetak]

If it was so simple and with these two Tikaits are non-entities, why is UP government unable to expel them from the protest site? How long will it take to block all entry points to this site, so that more people cannot reach the spot and then evict them by force? From what I read in MSM; UP government has actually even restored power and water to the protest site. Only free supply for food is now pending.

You cannot. The Tikait brothers power starts and ends in handful of districts in Western UP but they carry the tags of "chowdhary" of Jat community. Their father Mahendra Tikait had made a derogatory comment on Mayawati and dalits once, when Mayawati sent the police to arrest him it resulted in thousands of jats blocking the police and violence in many districts in western UP. The government needs to be smart and patient, identify the puppet masters of these agitation, identify their weak points, some have kids abroad (including one of Rakesh Tikait's son), some have business interests abroad and outside their territory within India, some have mistresses, some have powerful enemies..work on their weaknesses and needle them at a more opportune time.

Rahul Gandhi's foreign trips baffles me. In a world of encrypted communication he really need not fly to a foreign country to talk to his handlers and expose himself. Besides, given his IQ levels, it is very unlikely he is capable of orchestrating what we are seeing in Delhi today.

his handlers are doing it for him

his focus on ambani, adani, rafale and Modi's alleged corruption as also the most unexpected and massive body that blow he took in the last general election where the dumbo had actually thought that he had won as did his mafia family which was so very confident, even on the day of the counting seems to have unhinged him.

his handlers may be prospecting for other suitable jaichands to carry the torch that will set alight Bharat.

they say that he will take over as party president after the coming state elections which simply means that they want any stigma and/or the stench of loss to stick to the deranged princeling when he takes over after a "fair" party election

something is definitely up regarding the phoren visits

[chetak]

Pankajs ji,

For #1, the Tikait gent is still there at the same location and has in fact called for reinforcements which are arriving every day. The end result is UAPA or not, they are still there. We are still back to square one, except that Tikait has cases against him. Cases matter if you get arrested, which this government has refused so far and won’t any time soon for fear of exacerbating the situation. So, this is a stalemate at best.

For #2, Yes there has been a notable change in the people’s perception FOR NOW. However, this gang is especially prone to wild conspiracy theories and the narrative gaining ground is that it was BJP who did it. This is helped by AAP that has its own agenda.

My intention was also to point out that if SC gives an order, the farmers are likely to reject it as they have with the Committee. This is assuming SC delivers on the side of GoI in the first place of which there is no guarantee.

hizzonners will not give any order because they know that it will not be followed and there is no one to enforce the orders for them given the intra pillar relations

If this happens, then the pillar will lose all respect, as well as, its so called moral authority so it will perforce push the state into the corner and insist that it give the orders as it did very recently and then call it something like "farmer's visit" after the mayhem has occurred, mayhem which could have been seen coming from a mile away

[pankajs]

Pankajs ji,

For #1, the Tikait gent is still there at the same location and has in fact called for reinforcements which are arriving every day. The end result is UAPA or not, they are still there. We are still back to square one, except that Tikait has cases against him. Cases matter if you get arrested, which this government has refused so far and won’t any time soon for fear of exacerbating the situation. So, this is a stalemate at best.

For #2, Yes there has been a notable change in the people’s perception FOR NOW. However, this gang is especially prone to wild conspiracy theories and the narrative gaining ground is that it was BJP who did it. This is helped by AAP that has its own agenda.

My intention was also to point out that if SC gives an order, the farmers are likely to reject it as they have with the Committee. This is assuming SC delivers on the side of GoI in the first place of which there is no guarantee.

Sir ji,

Which universe do you live in ...

#1

a. At least 5 farmer orginization have broken and run away.
b. Tikait was crying on TV day before yesterdin after a vizit by DM/Bolice, probably when he was served UAPA notice.

So while Tikait and some other might still be there they have weakened considerably. Don't trust me .. trust the presstitutes backing the farmers protest. All because of bad optics. It will take a long time to rebuild and that too their stay at the border has to be incident free. Any violence that can be pinned on them will again backfire. Optics matter!

There are all verifiable facts.

#2

a. Opposition has tried its best for the past 7 year but Modi still tops all surveys year after year ... Facts.
b. APP is limited to Delhi and Punjab.

Sir jee ... The "farmer leaders" have to go to the SC for relief on UAPA. They cannot avoid it! The "farmer leaders" need SC MORE than the SC needs the "farmer leaders" .... Again facts!

But we can choose to close our eyes ... a choice all of us have.

[vimal]

Some members have a habit of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Every Ina,Meena.Dika is the next existential threat to Bharat and Modi.
Tikait and his antics have turned this into a Jaat andolan from a Kisan andolan; that alone is half the victory.

A picture is worth a thousand words:

[chetak]

Some members have a habit of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Every Ina,Meena.Dika is the next existential threat to Bharat and Modi. Tikait and his antics have turned this into a Jaat andolan from a Kisan andolan; that alone is half the victory.

+108

Plan B is in action

[chetak]

That is why they don't want a clause by clause discussion.

If they openly say 'withdraw Pan number clause', their game will be up.

this also means that heavyweight politicos, across political parties, are involved in this mess up to their fat necks


so, is this true

[Tanaji]

Lets just say you have a more rosier take on things than I do. Has the agitation weakened after the Republic Day antics? Obviously yes. But it’s a verifiable fact as well that Tikaits crying and bawling has only served to drum up the numbers at the borders.

Is it an existential threat to Modi or will it dent his popularity? No. But it stands to affect BJP’s chances in western UP where the Tikait gang holds sway. To be honest, I don’t know if BJP won from those areas though, so it might turn to be a non issue....

If GoI can hold on by ignoring their antics till the sowing season, Bjp is in a much better position.

I definitely don’t want the laws to be repealed under any circumstances though... I suspect the suspension is the only concession the government will give.

[ManSingh]

My two cents.

I believe the issue is misclassification of the problem. The response options including limitations in how to respond can only flow from the classification.

If the govt/SC/farmers can not correctly classify the issue at hand, then there is bound to be a conflict and/or the issue is likely to linger on. I don't think at this point any side has the upper hand. The government is limited in hard options by the size of the agitation, even if it is a regional one. Tikait/SKM are limited by the narrow scope of the compromise they are willing to offer. Initially the government was limited in response options by classifying this as a Khalistani problem. Assuming it as true, it meant that the only reasonable response was an internal security one which is a hard response to implement. It would have been good to tone it down at that point.

I believe the government had fumbled significantly in this agitation including today. While it looks for good optics to state that "The concession of an 18 month suspension still stands", it was not required to offer it at this point of time. In situations of conflict, you do not offer anything voluntarily especially when you have no idea as to whether the other side will accept. Now the farm organizations will take this as a base offer and incrementally add demands. The government can not offer anything less than an 18 month suspension since it committed to this on air.

The agitation folks also need to move on and work on something better than stating that they will only accept a complete repeal of laws. They do seem to have a slight advantage from events of recent days but all that is useless if they are not willing to compromise. I can't see how the government will repeal the laws and guarantee an MSP. Even if they wanted to, I don't think the government has the means. As of today, the government has to pawn an asset to pay for the CAIRN setback and the MSP is a way bigger liability.

It would also be better for the government to look ahead and check for possible speed bumps in the next 6-12 month horizon. You don't want to incrementally add problems ( China/Corona/Weak economy/Rising fuel prices/Unknown US administration/etc. ) and reach a breaking point. The Wage Code bill needs to be postponed ( if not notified yet ) or cancelled via an ordinance. It has the potential to bring salaried employees ( govt + pvt sector ) into a conflict with the government based on sentiment alone even if the net effect of those bills is positive in a long run. What else??

A reform the government must strongly focus on is reforming the IAS/IPS bureaucracy. It is clearly not working. The IAS babu's are clearly unable to convey government schemes in a correct fashion to the grassroots level and/or provide the best guidance to the government. So what role do they really play??
The IPS bureaucracy is not able to handle disturbances either. The TV visuals show policemen stomping on folks lying on the ground or policemen at the mercy of violent rioters. Both would have a very different handling in the developed word. So what kind of leadership/tactics are the IPS/state police officers offering.

[chetak]

My two cents.

I believe the issue is misclassification of the problem. The response options including limitations in how to respond can only flow from the classification.

If the govt/SC/farmers can not correctly classify the issue at hand, then there is bound to be a conflict and/or the issue is likely to linger on. I don't think at this point any side has the upper hand. The government is limited in hard options by the size of the agitation, even if it is a regional one. Tikait/SKM are limited by the narrow scope of the compromise they are willing to offer. Initially the government was limited in response options by classifying this as a Khalistani problem. Assuming it as true, it meant that the only reasonable response was an internal security one which is a hard response to implement. It would have been good to tone it down at that point.

I believe the government had fumbled significantly in this agitation including today. While it looks for good optics to state that "The concession of an 18 month suspension still stands", it was not required to offer it at this point of time. In situations of conflict, you do not offer anything voluntarily especially when you have no idea as to whether the other side will accept. Now the farm organizations will take this as a base offer and incrementally add demands. The government can not offer anything less than an 18 month suspension since it committed to this on air.

The agitation folks also need to move on and work on something better than stating that they will only accept a complete repeal of laws. They do seem to have a slight advantage from events of recent days but all that is useless if they are not willing to compromise. I can't see how the government will repeal the laws and guarantee an MSP. Even if they wanted to, I don't think the government has the means. As of today, the government has to pawn an asset to pay for the CAIRN setback and the MSP is a way bigger liability.

It would also be better for the government to look ahead and check for possible speed bumps in the next 6-12 month horizon. You don't want to incrementally add problems ( China/Corona/Weak economy/Rising fuel prices/Unknown US administration/etc. ) and reach a breaking point. The Wage Code bill needs to be postponed ( if not notified yet ) or cancelled via an ordinance. It has the potential to bring salaried employees ( govt + pvt sector ) into a conflict with the government based on sentiment alone even if the net effect of those bills is positive in a long run. What else??

A reform the government must strongly focus on is reforming the IAS/IPS bureaucracy. It is clearly not working. The IAS babu's are clearly unable to convey government schemes in a correct fashion to the grassroots level and/or provide the best guidance to the government. So what role do they really play??
The IPS bureaucracy is not able to handle disturbances either. The TV visuals show policemen stomping on folks lying on the ground or policemen at the mercy of violent rioters. Both would have a very different handling in the developed word. So what kind of leadership/tactics are the IPS/state police officers offering.

the farm laws are done and dusted.

no one can change it now.

A 18 month delay will net a lot of political commission agents/arhtiyas and their henchmen right into the ED/IT net so the next MSP procurement cycle is going to be a very sharp double edged sword.

This has already painfully dawned on the commission agents/arhtiyas frontmen and benamis hence the continued all in stance of repealing the farm laws in toto.

The farmers all over are OK with it. No one gives a rats about some punjab politicos and dilli politicos who want to win in punjab.

The BJP will not enter punjab as they have deliberately been marginalised over the years.

even sidhu, a dumb khalistani made a bid to become punjab CM

amarinder and the badals have overplayed their one and only trump card and messed up their once politically strong hand

pushed by the politicos, the farmers may have some stooopid agenda but the govt is focussed on the coming elections. They will win because anything else will cause the govt as well as the reforms to unravel.

there is, however, one fly in the ointment and it is not political.

and big money always means very, very big bribes.

[chanakyaa]

...Is it an existential threat to Modi or will it dent his popularity? No. But it stands to affect BJP’s chances in western UP where the Tikait gang holds sway. To be honest, I don’t know if BJP won from those areas though, so it might turn to be a non issue.....

Dhirendra Pundir and Sanjay Dixit-ji's video posted above specifically talks about this issue in depth. In summary, it appears to be a non-issue.

[Ambar]

Is it an existential threat to Modi or will it dent his popularity? No. But it stands to affect BJP’s chances in western UP where the Tikait gang holds sway. To be honest, I don’t know if BJP won from those areas though, so it might turn to be a non issue....

If GoI can hold on by ignoring their antics till the sowing season, Bjp is in a much better position.

There were jat swabhiman agitations in western UP, Haryana, RJ and some parts of Punjab in 2016 too, this was before the UP elections. The same Tikait who claims to be a pan-India leader of farmers stood in the elections and couldn't even muster 10k votes. It is one thing to takeover cities and create ruckus, it is another thing to win elections or get re-elected.

[Ambar]

My two cents.

I believe the issue is misclassification of the problem. The response options including limitations in how to respond can only flow from the classification.

When you make issues out of non-issues then the only way to carry on agitating is by misclassifying problems, this much should have been clear when some of the protestors held posters demanding release of Sharjil Imam, Gautam Navlakha and others in the early days. Btw, why are we hearing the slogans of "Naare-e-takbir Allah hu akbar" in khap panchayats if this is an issue about 3 farm bills ?

[chetak]

My two cents.

I believe the issue is misclassification of the problem. The response options including limitations in how to respond can only flow from the classification.

When you make issues out of non-issues then the only way to carry on agitating is by misclassifying problems, this much should have been clear when some of the protestors held posters demanding release of Sharjil Imam, Gautam Navlakha and others in the early days. Btw, why are we hearing the slogans of "Naare-e-takbir Allah hu akbar" in khap panchayats if this is an issue about 3 farm bills ?

It doesn't make much of a difference because nested in the "farmer's" agitation are many other shadowy outfits all pushing their own nefarious agendas and others fronting for the BIF.

there are outside influences at play and our paid off presstitutes are not about to out them on prime time teevee.

The one and only guy who could and would have done so is under siege for the very purpose of blanking him out and the BJP seems to have thrown goswami under the bus by their masterly inactivity

the congis and the enceepee are in the forefront of this assault but have got the foolish SS to front for them and take the hits for them on SM and the RW press.

the BJP is also the only party which turns on its own when in power which is the very opposite of what the others do

[vimal]

As protests drag on locals have started protests to clear up the roads and resume normal life. I won’t be surprised if there is soon going to be a flare up between locals and these professional protesters.

[greatde]

Never imagined that the government would be even more on the backfoot, after the 26/1 riot. It's a lost cause, and the conduct of courts is the most puzzling. At least media is showing the discrepancies, faultlines in this protest. But no effort nor correction from the other pillar of democracy.

The legislation and executive are getting threaten big time, and no real solutions around...

[chetak]

Never imagined that the government would be even more on the backfoot, after the 26/1 riot. It's a lost cause, and the conduct of courts is the most puzzling. At least media is showing the discrepancies, faultlines in this protest. But no effort nor correction from the other pillar of democracy.

The legislation and executive are getting threaten big time, and no real solutions around...

after what happened in the bhopal gas tragedy and the parts played by various BIF at the time and the entities in India who cooperated, in the vulture fest, why should anything puzzle anyone anymore.

the stakes are much higher here, are they not..

[Ambar]

Assuming there are around 100k protestors blocking Delhi and looking at several polls around 30% supporting these protests, I bet there are some smart guys watching the happenings in India keenly and analyzing the population percentage threshold required to manufacture outrage, create chaos , orchestrate "revolution" and subvert a democracy. If <0.01% of the overall population is all that is required to physically participate in protests, and another 30% can be controlled through messaging apps, social media, print and TV media etc to provide intellectual cover, then those are some very achievable numbers to throw a government off balance. Admittedly in a country as fractured and as populous as India it is much easier to achieve this than say a country like Thailand or Russia or Brazil but even then it shows how easily this game can be played. In a way this is a scaled up version of terrorists hijacking a plane or taking over hostages in a building, low investment and high ROI strategy.

[chetak]

The BJP should also pass a resolution immediately demanding the same thing

[sanjayc]

Punjab’s arhtiyas: sins of commission
Commission agents (arhtiyas) are a powerful lobby in the state’s agriculture and politics. Attempts to resolve Punjab’s agrarian crisis without breaking their grip on the farmer will not succeed
https://ruralindiaonline.org/en/article ... H7MFdHlVpA

“There is no such thing as a crisis in agriculture.”

Meet Darshan Singh Sanghera, vice president of Punjab’s powerful Arhtiyas Association. And boss of its Barnala district chapter. Arhtiyas are commission agents, a link between farmers and buyers of their produce. They arrange for the auction and delivery of harvested crop to the buyers. They are also moneylenders with a long history in that trade. In recent years, they’ve emerged as input dealers as well. All of which means they wield great control over farmers in this state.

The arhtiyas are also politically powerful. They count members of the legislative assembly amongst their brethren. In July last year, they honoured Chief Minister Amarinder Singh with the title of ‘Fakhr-e-Quam’ (‘Pride of the Community’). Local media termed the event “a mega felicitation function.” It came soon after the chief minister had said it would be difficult to waive off the debt owed by farmers to the arhtiyas.

As many as 86 per cent of farmer and 80 per cent of agricultural labour households are mired in debt, says a study on Indebtedness among Farmers and Agricultural Labourers in Rural Punjab. Its authors, researchers at Punjabi University, Patiala, say over a fifth of that debt was owed to commission agents and moneylenders. What’s more, the debt burden gets worse down the scale. It’s heaviest amongst marginal and small farmers. The study covered 1007 farmer and 301 agricultural labour households. Its field surveys in 2014-15 were spread across all regions of the state. Other studies too speak of deepening debt and mounting misery.

Darshan Singh Sanghera dismisses agrarian distress as “all due to the spending habits of the farmer. That is what lands them in trouble,” he says firmly. “We help them with money to buy inputs. Also, when they have weddings, medical and other expenses. When the farmer’s harvest is ready, he brings it and gives it to an ahrtiya. We clean the crop, bag it, deal with the government, the banks, the market.” The government pays the agents 2.5 per cent of the value of total procurement of wheat and paddy. The official side of their activity is governed by the Punjab State Agricultural Marketing Board. The farmers receive their payment through these commission agents. And all this is apart from the income the arhtiyas derive from moneylending.

We reached Sanghera’s Grain Market office in Barnala town soon after visiting Jodhpur village in the same block. There, Ranjit and Balwinder Singh recounted the very public suicides of their relatives Baljit Singh and his mother Balbir Kaur within an hour after each other on April 25, 2016. “They were resisting the attachment of their land by an arhtiya who had arrived with a court order and some 100 police personnel in tow,” said Balwinder. “Plus, many officials of the local administration and several goondas of the arhtiyas.” Almost 150 people in all – to attach the family’s two acres of land.

“In this Jodhpur village alone,” says Balwinder, “there are some 450 households. Of these, just 15-20 are debt free.” And the debt has seen farmers losing land to arhtiyas.

“Relations between arhtiyas and farmers are not so bad,” says Sanghera. “And there is no crisis in farming. Look at me, I inherited just eight acres. Now I have 18. The media sometimes blow the issues out of proportion. Government compensation for suicides simply encourages more of them. If even one family gets compensation, it inspires others. Stop these compensations altogether and the suicides will stop.”

For him, the villains are the unions that defend farmers’ rights. And the worst offender is the Bhartiya Kisan Union (Dakonda). The BKU (D) is strong in this region and a tough nut to crack. Their members turn out in large numbers to block land attachments and seizures. Even when the arhtiyas have been accompanied by gun-toting underlings.

“Most arhtiyas have weapons,” concedes Sanghera. “But these are only used for self-defence. When you deal in large amounts of money, you need security, no? Mind you, 99 per cent of farmers are good people.” Apparently, the remaining one per cent are troublesome enough to warrant armed security all the time. He too owns a firearm. “It became necessary in the days of militancy in Punjab,” he explains.

Meanwhile, debt-driven suicides are mounting. No less than 8,294 farmers took their own lives between 2000 and 2015, says a study presented last year before the Vidhan Sabha’s Committee on Agrarian Suicides. The report, titled Farmer and Labourer Suicides in Punjab, says 6,373 agricultural labourers also killed themselves in the same period. And that was in just six of the state’s 22 districts, say its authors, researchers of the Punjab Agricultural University (PAU), Ludhiana. The study, commissioned by the state government’s revenue department, found that 83 per cent of all these suicides were largely debt-driven.

Teja Singh, arhtiya and former policeman, argues that half of the farmers’ suicides are not genuine

“Nobody is committing suicide in helplessness,” asserts Teja Singh. “Farming is doing well these last 10 years. Arhtiyas have in fact lowered lending rates.” Down to 1 per cent a month (12 per cent a year), he says. In village after village, though, farmers spoke of the rate being 1.5 per cent (18 per cent a year) or higher. Teja Singh is the arhtiya involved in the Jodhpur village battle that saw mother and son kill themselves in full public view. “Only 50 per cent of all these farm suicides are genuine,” he scoffs.

However, he speaks with refreshing candour of arhtiya politics. There are factions, yes. “But whichever party comes to power, their man becomes president of our association.” The present state chief is with the Congress. Before the elections it was an Akali man. Teja Singh’s son Jaspreet Singh feels the commission agents are being maligned. “Ours is just another profession,” he says. “We are unfairly given a bad name. After our [Jodhpur] case, about 50 arhtiyas quit the trade.”

However, Jaspreet is pleased with the media. “The local press has been very good to us. We have faith in the media. We will not be able to repay them. No, we gave no money to anyone for favourable coverage. The Hindi press came to our rescue [when criminal cases were filed against them after the Jodhpur incident]. We obtained bail from the High Court quicker than we might otherwise have.” He feels the Hindi papers are more supportive since they back the trader community. The Punjabi press, he laments, tends to be closer to the landed classes.

The state government’s October 2017 loan waiver was limited, layered and conditional. It applies to what farmers owe cooperative banks and public sector or even private banks. And that too, has unfolded in a narrow, restricted way. In its 2017 election manifesto, the Congress party had promised a complete “waiver of agricultural debt of farmers.” And that the Punjab Settlement of Agricultural Indebtedness Act of 2016 would be tweaked to make it “more comprehensive and effective.” To date the government has not waived a paisa of the Rs. 17,000 crore farmer debt owed to the arhtiyas.

A 2010 study recommended that this “system, in which the payment of the farmers’ produce is made through the commission agents, should be scrapped.” The study on Commission Agent System in Punjab Agriculture by researchers of the PAU, Ludhiana, called for “direct payment to the farmers for the procurement of their produce.”

The story of commission agents and farmers has a resonance across the country. But there is a novel element here. Unlike most of their fraternity elsewhere, Darshan Singh Sanghera, Teja Singh and many like them are not from the Bania or other trader castes. They are Jat Sikhs. Jats are late entrants to the trade. But they’re doing well. Today, of the 47,000 arhtiyas in Punjab, 23,000 are Jats. “In the cities, we are not the biggest group, says Sanghera. “I got into this trade in 1988. Even 10 years later, there were just 5-7 Jat arhtiyas in this mandi. Today there are 150 shops, of which one-third are Jats. And in the smaller markets on the periphery, we are in a majority.”

Most of the Jats began as junior partners to Bania arhtiyas. Then branched out on their own. But why would the Banias want Jats as partners at all? When it comes to money recovery and the risk of rough stuff, says Sanghera, “the Bania arhtiyas get scared.” The Jat arhtiyas are not so squeamish. “We get the money back,” he says calmly.

A group of mostly Jat farmers I recounted this story to in Muktsar district laughed raucously. “He was telling you the truth,” some of them said. “Jats won’t recoil from rough stuff. The Banias will.” The junior partners are on their way to being big brothers in the trade.

But perhaps the impact of that partnership with the Banias still shows in limited ways. In Sanghera’s office, we ask his son Onkar Singh about the five portraits on the wall. The first two are of Guru Gobind Singh and Guru Nanak. The last two are of Guru Hargobind and Guru Tegh Bahadur. The central one in this line up of five is of Shiva and Parvati with a baby Ganesha. How did that come to be?

“We have entered this profession, we have to adapt to its ways,” said Onkar.

[vijayk]

https://twitter.com/iMac_too/status/1355887857240481797

iMac_too @iMac_too

Supreme Court was eager to put this man in jail for contempt of court. Rightly so. He was saved by Modi govt's Attorney General. Now he's paying back

Prashant Bhushan. @pbhushan1
There is absolutely no justification to keep Universities, Colleges&schools closed when Covid has virtually died in India. By keeping them closed, immeasurable harm is being done to Students& children. Only objective is to prevent student activism. Students must organise protests

[ManSingh]

even sidhu, a dumb khalistani made a bid to become punjab CM

While I resist the urge to reply to each and every post, your statement could not be further from the truth.

Assuming you are referring to Navjot Singh Sidhu. You may reason him to be a turn coat, BJP-backstabber, congressi etc, Khalistani he is not.

He is half-hindu and actively practices both faiths. He is a regular and as a minister was a patron of Durgiana temple, Amritsar. Besides the Sikh holy book, he has a Shiva temple at his home in Amritsar. He sometimes gets in trouble with Sikh radicals as well.

He is out of the BJP because they refused to back him in his ( well-principled ) stand against the Badals(Akali's). I am pretty sure NJS would have been in the BJP till now if Amit Shah were in charge at that time ( as he would have backed him against the Akali's ).

Not BJP + Sikh does not imply khalistani. In the current crisis, he could have been a key player for the BJP versus the non-entities currently providing ground level feedback to the BJP top brass from Punjab.

[vimal]

Punjab’s arhtiyas: sins of commission
Commission agents (arhtiyas) are a powerful lobby in the state’s agriculture and politics. Attempts to resolve Punjab’s agrarian crisis without breaking their grip on the farmer will not succeed
https://ruralindiaonline.org/en/article ... H7MFdHlVpA

This was already shared on this thread as well in the Punjab thread. Pls don't post entire articles repeatedly.

[vijayk]

https://swarajyamag.com/health/insuranc ... ched-ahead
Insurance And Health Indicators: How West Bengal Suffered For Not Implementing PM-JAY While Neighbours Marched Ahead

The percentage of households with health insurance increased by 54 per cent for the states that implemented PM-JAY while falling by 10 per cent in states that did not, says the Survey which was tabled by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in Parliament yesterday (29 January).

The difference is more stark when one compares states with similar socio-economic indicators. As per the Survey’s analysis, the proportion of households with health insurance increased in Assam, Bihar and Sikkim by 89 per cent while it decreased by 12 per cent in West Bengal between 2015-16 to 2019-20.

PM-JAY is currently being implemented by 32 states and union territories. West Bengal, Delhi, Telangana and Odisha governments have kept their people out of the ambit of the scheme.

Infant mortality rates declined by 20 per cent in West Bengal between NFHS-4 and NFHS-5 while the three neighbouring states - Assam, Sikkim and Bihar witnessed a decline of 28 per cent. Under-5 mortality rate fell by 20 per cent in West Bengal while the three neighbours saw a 27 per cent decline.

Infant mortality rates and Under-5 mortality declined by 12 per cent and 14 per cent respectively in states which did not implement PM-JAY while they fell by 20 per cent and 19 per cent in states which adopted it.

The states which that did not implement PM-JAY saw a 15 per cent decline in unmet need for spacing between consecutive children while the same for the states that adopted it witnessed a 31 per cent decline - a stark difference.

The states like West Bengal, Odisha, Telangana and Delhi which decided to boycott PM-JAY had raised many doubts over the need of the health insurance scheme of the central government but the data analysis presented by the Economic Survey proves conclusively that the people in these states would’ve been better off had they shed scepticism and adopted the scheme. It’s time that these four state governments realised their mistake. They aren’t hurting anyone but their own people.

[chetak]

even sidhu, a dumb khalistani made a bid to become punjab CM

Not BJP + Sikh does not imply khalistani. In the current crisis, he could have been a key player for the BJP versus the non-entities currently providing ground level feedback to the BJP top brass from Punjab.

I was referring particularly to his excessive fondness for the pakis and publicly hugging really nice pakis like bajwa who are at the forefront of fomenting terrorism against India

both niazi and bajwa are khalistani supporters and the pakis are involved in the "farmer's" agitation

BJP membership is not the issue but siddhu's calculated opportunism is.

so, if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then............

[Yagnasri]

Huge funding is there in this. It still flowing. This BIF activity is far better funded than Shaheenbag and also quite costly. Brokers lose hugely if farm laws are implemented in Punjab. Khalis are getting funds from abroad. So funds are coming in.

[Santosh]

So farmer dalal have option to take Modi's deal of 1.5 years. If they don't, the case will go to SC and also govt will file Uapa charges. Then they have no option but to accept SC's compromise which may be worse that Modi's deal. But SC process may be delayed which means andolan can go on for few more months depending on how much money BIF can bring to the table. May not be a bad option to drain BIF money while continuing chai biskoot.