2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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shaun
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by shaun »

Take a look at Sahil P (@SahilInfra): https://twitter.com/SahilInfra?s=08
Lets trend #Bringbacksahilpednekar

Twitter have suspended his earlier account , because he updates about various infrastructure project taken up im India , its progress , its completion . These visuals of progress is against the narrative of bhooka-nanga Bharat being peddled by Break India Force foot soilders comprising of Leftist loonies and assorted commies
vimal
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by vimal »

shaun wrote:Take a look at Sahil P (@SahilInfra): https://twitter.com/SahilInfra?s=08
Lets trend #Bringbacksahilpednekar

Twitter have suspended his earlier account , because he updates about various infrastructure project taken up im India , its progress , its completion . These visuals of progress is against the narrative of bhooka-nanga Bharat being peddled by Break India Force foot soilders comprising of Leftist loonies and assorted commies
It's amazing that BiF can control these SM outlets with such impunity.

Pls x post to the social media thread viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7828&start=160
vijayk
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by vijayk »

vimal wrote:
shaun wrote:Take a look at Sahil P (@SahilInfra): https://twitter.com/SahilInfra?s=08
Lets trend #Bringbacksahilpednekar

Twitter have suspended his earlier account , because he updates about various infrastructure project taken up im India , its progress , its completion . These visuals of progress is against the narrative of bhooka-nanga Bharat being peddled by Break India Force foot soilders comprising of Leftist loonies and assorted commies
It's amazing that BiF can control these SM outlets with such impunity.

Pls x post to the social media thread viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7828&start=160
It is not their problem. This Govt. refuses to regulate. They don't bring in any legislation. May be they want to wait for a moment when it comes necwessary.
nandakumar
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by nandakumar »

ManSingh

"If the govt/SC/farmers can not correctly classify the issue at hand, then there is bound to be a conflict and/or the issue is likely to linger on. I don't think at this point any side has the upper hand. The government is limited in hard options by the size of the agitation, even if it is a regional one. Tikait/SKM are limited by the narrow scope of the compromise they are willing to offer. Initially the government was limited in response options by classifying this as a Khalistani problem"
Fair enough. I have two questions. If the Government cannot respond with hard internal security measures that its classification of the problem as a 'Khalistani' problem requires how does that make it a misclassification? It could still be a 'Khalistani' problem although the government's options may be limited despite it being so. Secondly even granting that the government has misclassified the problem, what is the misclassification by the farmers' unions?
greatde
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by greatde »

Santosh wrote:So farmer dalal have option to take Modi's deal of 1.5 years. If they don't, the case will go to SC and also govt will file Uapa charges. Then they have no option but to accept SC's compromise which may be worse that Modi's deal. But SC process may be delayed which means andolan can go on for few more months depending on how much money BIF can bring to the table. May not be a bad option to drain BIF money while continuing chai biskoot.
Not so easy. These so called Farmers also have the option of staying put. They can happily play the waiting game, occupy the roads and force the government to give-in.

This current fiasco is fitting with Intolerant India debate. These intolerant people want to rule the country through their mob. We should have the intolerant debate again like 2015.
vimal
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by vimal »

@greatde and then what? What happened in 2015? Do you think it's easy to occupy roads and keep the gravy train flowing for long? It costs nothing for the government to let these idiots sit in tents in cold and heat while braving covid. Already towns around these protests have started to get impatient with all the inconvenience they brought. It's taking a definite casteist/religion turn which is unfortunate but that's what eventually all these protests devolves into.
habal
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by habal »

gentlemen, I have certain thoughts over the weekend so hear me out will you pls.

Pakistan is having something called the PDM (Peoples Democratic Movement) since past 4 months led by Maulana Fazlur Rahman (JuI) which is a religious party with a committed cadre that leads into lakhs. TSPA can not take them out by guns or lathis so just grin and bear. Since the redoubtable Maulana with grassroots muscle at hand and no fauji willing to take him on the PPP, PML(N) and ANP (badshah khan's party), & PTM (pashtoon rights) have banded on and are creating an immovable force sitting in protest in Islamabad or wherever they please and threaten/chide/tease Imran & Bajwa at their pleasure.

So their cause is righteous, no one can pick issues with their cause, democracy has always been missing in pakistan and it gives a constant stick to beat Imran and Bajwa.

Are their any similarities with what is happening in Dilli ?

Unlike Shaheen Bagh, the farmers from north west provide a kind of muscle that cannot be taken apart with force. 'Goli maaron salon ko' is not going to work here. There is little to be done by aggressive confrontation where the battle is for legitimacy by equally strong forces each with their set of strengths.

Does this seem like from the Soros school of democracy ?? Two similar strategies in two neighbouring countries. Somewhat like Orange revolution stirrings. Kindly watch this space.

Secondly there are weaknesses in govt strategy dealing with the problem. NM & AS seem like folks who want to be seen as doing everything everywhere where they beat everyone down with their masterstrokes and strategy. Also there seems to be a kind of insecurity at play in delegating responsibilities on lines of what happens if he takes the limelight. It would be good if the two musketeers can take a step back from their hardline positions. And someone else step in who can put across the soft view and concede to all the demands of farmers and their brokers and let them claim complete victory and disperse the tens of thousands to their homes. This can then be taken up later after proper groundwork has been done and favorable public opinion built. Instead of suspending for one year, repeal for one year. Other than terminologies there is no other difference. Someone like a Rajnath Singh can provide such an escape route for firefighting.

Thirdly what exactly is the need for farm laws if the govt says it is to benefit farmers and farmers say it will not benefit them at all. After some thought and analysis, and the sheer adamancy and headstrong displayed by the govt of the day, these farm laws seems like nothing but a pseudonym and legal basis for corporate farming initially by Indian corporates but then handed over to western corporates on the sly. 'Ambani & Adani' seems like a nickname for Indian corporates with enough political leverage who can handle Indian politicians to strongarm and batter through such reforms which may not be possible if a weaker coalition is in power. Foreign MNC will make massive investments in politically connected Indian corporates who will lead the foray into farming on behalf of MNC and at a later date cash out with investment vehicle sold to foreign MNC for a tidy profit. MNC has to just keep the politicians of that day greased and happy for them to indulge in all kinds of manipulations.

Corporate farming will bring massive riches to the corporates but what it will also within 5 years leave a lot of farmers and middlemen unemployed. Is India economically prepared for this.Is the agriculture model of milling miltitudes contributing massive grainstocks better for India than corporates who farm for export or pure profits and can manipulate markets along the way being producers, sorters, stockist, distributor, end retailer all at once. Will they sell in India if they have better prospects for export ?? Will that not increase prices in India ?? Do we need a agriculture economy that relies on cash crops and grain shortage become order of day. How will poor afford pricier grains ?? Have all these issues been thought through before ramming down corporate farming down the throat of Ind economic system. As usual media will not raise stories of casualties of corporate farming or agriculture suicides because corporates will give them ad revenue and media will be silent. The agri crises may be a silent killer 5 years hence right besides us while nation goes on as if nothing happened.

Looking at petroleum sector in India which is a scam at play charging highest prices for a litre of petrol than anywhere else in the world as ₹28 worth of petrol sold at ₹91-₹100/litre across India the govt and babu doesn't seem to be deeply perturbed with a high price economy. I doubt whether their sensibilities also extend to high tolerance for high food prices as well. If that is the case, then it is going to be a tough future. Corporates will make high revenue and their high profits will be divided among net population for obtaining imaginary GDP growth which will prove nothing really but something for politicians to tom-tom high growth at foreign capitals but mean nothing for commons. Is that what we are looking at.

So if for a moment one considers these protest as a noble cause hijacked by a bunch of ignobles guided by foreign hand and money which can throw billions at it and control and prosper from both outcomes irrespective of which side prevails and death and destruction being the only gifts that accrue solely to India, how can the issue be tackled to the satisfaction of all or sustaining minimum damage to all parties at hand. Why do we need to rush towards farm laws, is there no other oppprtunity awaiting in Indian economy. What about bureaucratic reforms and ease of doing business. What about setting up of SEZ for tech giants and fabs to fight semiconductor shortage and China dependency ? Are farm laws the only weapon in hand of GoI as of now as investment potential ?
KLNMurthy
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KLNMurthy »

habal, good thoughtful & thought-provoking analysis.

Seems to me there are multiple axes to be considered, if we set aside the politics.

- food security/food sovereignty/food accessibility (should be non-negotiable)

- profitability and growth for the small farmer

- ability to take advantage of advanced skills, technologies and economies of scale offered by corporates including MNCs

- environmentally sound farming practices

- environmentally and economically sound matching of crop choices to locales

- improvement of per capita human productivity by transitioning most of agricultural workers into industrial and services sectors

- any other axes I am missing

A good law & implementation system on the ground should find a flexible way to balance and tradeoff along these axes.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Pratyush »

Habal,

Nice insight as usual.

However, I think that you have ignored one thing. That NaMo & AS may have done this deliberately to trigger this rebellion from the entrenched interests in the farming community.

By making them come out and fight. In order to protect the core interests, at a time when the center has nearly 3.5 years to deliver and the farmer's leaders have an interest in making sure that any potential benefits don't accrue to the farmers.

With all the tools of the government at disposal with the center on the one hand. Coupled with an overt and absolute repudiations of the benefits that the new farm laws bring to the farmers. The onus will be on the vested interest to make sure that the farmers ( individually or collectively ) don't take benefits of the new laws.

The farmers will start taking advantage of the new laws in spite of the repudiation from the leaders.

Because they all need the money in order to survive and the agitators don't have the ability to match the resources of the state.
chetak
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Yagnasri wrote:Huge funding is there in this. It still flowing. This BIF activity is far better funded than Shaheenbag and also quite costly. Brokers lose hugely if farm laws are implemented in Punjab. Khalis are getting funds from abroad. So funds are coming in.
lessons learned from shaheenbagh are being implemented.

the BIF has adapted quickly so it is beginning to look like a long haul for the govt, keeping in mind the coming state elections.

The BIF timing is impeccable and it has moved to the caste narrative so smoothly that it presupposes a plan already in play. The coming state elections have been factored in to force the muted response of the govt.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Suraj »

habal wrote:Thirdly what exactly is the need for farm laws if the govt says it is to benefit farmers and farmers say it will not benefit them at all.
This is a strawman. Perhaps it's the claim of the people protesting, but it's not what 'farmers' say. This is similar to normalizing one person's perspective as 'Muslims' saying something.

Indian farmers have faced all kinds of problems for a few generations since independence. They've never before come to New Delhi in a tractor cavalcade. Not during Monsanto, farmer suicides or any number of other agri sector issues. The farmers are also aware that they have a democratic means to answer to very bad policymaking - by voting against the incumbent. That is the social contract that already exists.

What's happening in New Delhi and its surroundings now is not within any social contract between the citizens, farmers in particular, and the state. It's simply a well funded protest movement by entities who can afford the time, money and leisure to spend all of the winter harvest season consuming designer paneer tikka pizza along the outskirts of Delhi.

That the mandi system is a colonial relic is a known fact. That multiple committees have sought to offer guidance on the very farm laws in question, including advice from the current opposition, the very loquacious former RBI chief, and others. That the committee that examined this bill before it became law was comprised primarily of the opposition parties, is also a fact. Claiming 'farmers say...' is intellectual laziness - these farm laws are the result of close to a decade of policy development spanning 3 administrations.

We have a democratic system , and there are certain norms by which the state and public engage. The state makes the laws with the legislature it has. The population responds to any bad governance by voting the government out. Opposition is consulted during lawmaking; however there's a limit to how much 'opposition can be consulted', because there's no opposition in the first place - the biggest opposition party commands a paltry 9% of legislature, 8% if you don't count the borrowed seats, and typically 5-7% during an average session attendance. That doesn't delegitimize the ruling entity. If that were so, Nehru, IG, RG - all of whom had no opposition to speak of - are illegitimate.
chetak
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

pappu at 50+, it is actually the coming of the aged :mrgreen:

with vadra and vadri both fast catching up


Image
Manish_Sharma
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Manish_Sharma »

habal wrote:
NM & AS seem like folks who want to be seen as doing everything everywhere where they beat everyone down with their masterstrokes and strategy. Also there seems to be a kind of insecurity at play in delegating responsibilities on lines of what happens if he takes the limelight. It would be good if the two musketeers can take a step back from their hardline positions. And someone else step in who can put across the soft view and concede to all the demands of farmers and their brokers and let them claim complete victory and disperse the tens of thousands to their homes.
:rotfl:

You would love that won't you? For patriotic govt to accept defeat. So you people can force reversal of CAA and sending Dalit Hindus back to Pakistan so Muslims in Pakistan can abduct and rape their daughters, make them clean their garbage.

Reverse removal of 370, so Dalit in Kashmir is subjugated to clean toilets ...

So much poison in your post and your heart
Last edited by ramana on 01 Feb 2021 20:14, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Struck off offending rhetoric Ramana
arshyam
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by arshyam »

habal wrote:After some thought and analysis, and the sheer adamancy and headstrong displayed by the govt of the day, these farm laws seems like nothing but a pseudonym and legal basis for corporate farming initially by Indian corporates but then handed over to western corporates on the sly.
What analysis? Could you please share? Without it, the rest of your post is just a rant about "evil corporates" that we get to see in SM. I am quite surprised to see such verbiage sans analysis on BRF.
Sachin
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Sachin »

habal wrote:NM & AS seem like folks who want to be seen as doing everything everywhere where they beat everyone down with their masterstrokes and strategy.
So far it has been the concerned minister NS Tomar who has been doing the talking and negotiations. It is not Modi (as PM) or Shah (as HM). Modi only chipped in after the Jan 26th farmer broker riot. These laws have only been opposed by the so called 'farmers' from few states in India. Primarly Punjab, parts of Haryana and UP. These are not only the states indulging in farming. The fact that even after all this drama, there has not been a large scale farmer uprising is a clear indication that the laws are not affecting them in a big way.

After January 26th, you would also see the introduction of caste factor, and Khap Panchayath non-sense; which is no way connected with farming. And Khap Panchayath which was once ridiculed by the 'secular progressive liberals' as a regressive patriarchial system is now being tom-tommed as 'revolutionary' :lol:.

If laws passed by the elected Parliament has to be taken back purely due to L&O issues; then it means that the current government will not be able to make any great changes in the society. And this would also be used to further lampoon the government by saying that a brute majority government is not able to perform well (and as the next step; resign hand over rule to the Viceroy Mountbatten appointed ruling clan of India - the Nehru & Ghandis).

I am also not happy with the kid-glove treatment given to the farmer broker gang. But with BJP also not a babe in the woods; I am sure they too have a long term strategic plan in mind. They too here are after a long struggle and not to turn over and die. The new scheme of things like what happened in Shaheen Baug, the farmer broker drama all are just schemes to cow down a demoractically elected government (with brute majority).
chetak
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Manish_Sharma wrote:
habal wrote:
NM & AS seem like folks who want to be seen as doing everything everywhere where they beat everyone down with their masterstrokes and strategy. Also there seems to be a kind of insecurity at play in delegating responsibilities on lines of what happens if he takes the limelight. It would be good if the two musketeers can take a step back from their hardline positions. And someone else step in who can put across the soft view and concede to all the demands of farmers and their brokers and let them claim complete victory and disperse the tens of thousands to their homes.
:rotfl:

You would love that won't you? For patriotic govt to accept defeat. So you people can force reversal of CAA and sending Dalit Hindus back to Pakistan so Muslims in Pakistan can abduct and rape their daughters, make them clean their garbage.

Reverse removal of 370, so Dalit in Kashmir is subjugated to clean toilets ...

So much poison in your post and your heart
Has habbal ji cared to ask the people of India what they have to say.

the punjab "farmers", are they the ones who pay the taxes, are they the only ones who vote.

The farmers of the south seem to have their voices and MSP related opportunities snatched away by the very vocal minority of mollycoddled punjabis.

when will these distressed and even more hardworking true farmers of the south get their rights, the free electricity, much subsidized fertilizers and abundant water that is taken for granted by their much more entitled counterparts in punjab/haryana or is that asking for too much

the farmers are not the only ones with a stake in the APMC and MSP

rising prices and sidelining of the middle classes will result in a blowback equally disastrous, especially when said "farmers" are not even farmers.

The distressed farmers in all states, except those paid off in punjab and haryana, are not agitating because they are thrilled with the abolition of the exploitative APMC and they know the reality of the mirage of a never implemented MSP.

just take a gander at the taxes paid from the south, the GST collections and the mediocre development done in these states as far as infrastructure is concerned. This is no way to treat people who contribute so much to the national kitty.

People from all states fight in the IA and many die for their country, not just a few alleged sacrificing handful as is the media myth.

the myth of the punjab farmer as the annadata should be given a quick and ceremonial burial. Many other states produce more grain and of assuredly better quality without the free power, water and fertilizer subsidies followed by guaranteed procurement at the so called MSP.

The farm laws are here to stay. The protests are NOT about the farm laws, in any case.

It looks like you are deliberately misunderstanding the situation of the real issues at stake here with the BIF's massive footprint so clearly visible or you may just not care.
chetak
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

If this is not politics, then what is :mrgreen:

consolation prize onlee

especially after some khali peelis were involved in some well deserved thashing of dakait

badal's dilema: dhobi ka.......na ghar ka na ghat ka

just like el capitano, amarinder

सब अपनी अपनी रोटी सेक रहे है

Press Trust of India@PTI_News

Shiromani Akali Dal chief Sukhbir Singh Badal meets BKU leader Rakesh Tikait at Ghazipur border in Delhi, presents him with 'siropa' (robe of honour) assuring his party’s support to ongoing protest against new agri laws

10:05 PM · Jan 31, 2021
chetak
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

The so called "farmers" protests and agitation, funded, led and gamed by the BIF has become a serious issue of national security with grave implications for internal security and a concerted attempt at destabilization followed by regime change


Delhi Riots to Republic Day Mahyem: Unravelling Plot to Trigger Arab Spring-Style Anarchy in India


Delhi Riots to Republic Day Mahyem: Unravelling Plot to Trigger Arab Spring-Style Anarchy in India


Those who could not defeat India in conventional wars, or through terrorism, may use mob as a weapon to trigger civil unrest to destroy India from within


JANUARY 31, 2021,
Pathikrit Payne

An old saying goes like this: ‘if something looks like a duck, swims like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it is probably a duck’. The telltale signs of striking similarity between the Republic Day riots and mayhem unleashed in the heart of Delhi by so-called farm law protestors, the anti-CAA riots that took place in the same city last year, as well as the Arab Spring violence that triggered civil wars in several states of the Middle East, are too profound to ignore.

This perhaps brings to the fore the fundamental issue of whether the anarchic violence that Delhi faced, not once but twice in the last one year, were disparate incidents of attempted civil unrest orchestrated by a bunch of rogue elements or whether there is a bigger conspiracy to pin down, cripple and debilitate India from within.

ASPIRATIONAL INDIA CAN RATTLE MANY

A country with 1.3 billion-strong population, reasonably replete with natural and human resources, forex reserves at estimated $584-billion, one of the largest armed forces, and with the potential to become a $10-trillion economy by 2030-32, is not just another country. It is a force to reckon with, and is a competition for many. However, many of India’s adversaries, both in the neighbourhood and beyond, have realized that India cannot be defeated in conventional wars or through terrorism. Not that those have not been tried. On the contrary, no opportunity has been spared to devastate India through terrorism or through attempts of waging wars against it. Yet, both these efforts by India’s adversaries only resulted in galvanizing the nation even more profoundly.

This is where the newer hybrid version of war was perhaps conceived and unleashed on India, and for which, the Arab Spring was the template that was put into execution ‘to bleed India through a thousand cuts’.

ALSO READ| Be It Farmers Protest, Covid Deaths or Vaccine Drive, Global Media’s Shrill Headlines Fail the Credibility Test

OPENING A NEW FRONT AGAINST INDIA

The Balakot airstrike altered the threshold of India’s counter-terror response mechanism forever. It made Pakistan realize very clearly that henceforth, there would be severe punitive actions that the deep state of Pakistan would have to bear for hatching any more of 26/11- or Pulwama-type terror attacks. With full-fledged war against India out of question for decades now, and India’s counter-infiltration grid in Kashmir making it extremely difficult for Pakistan to cause any more upheaval there, Rawalpindi, and perhaps its masters in Beijing have been desperate to open a new front against India. For them, Kashmir is almost a lost case with increasing possibilities of diminishing returns.

If raising the Khalistan bogey in Punjab with support from expatriate Khalistani supporters was one of the options, the other invariably was to support every protest in India, and act as a catalyst to trigger civil unrests by latching on to issues and helping rabble-rousers through incessant disinformation campaigns to fuel riots and mayhem within India, where unfortunately, civilian protestors themselves would become the weapons of devastation to be used against the state.

THE ARAB SPRING TEMPLATE

If in 2020, it was the anti-CAA protests that were turned into destructive riots in the heart of India’s capital during the visit of US President Donald Trump, through an overwhelming disinformation campaign, the same template was put into action during the recent protest over farm laws on Republic Day, where too a set of most obnoxious fake information was circulated to create a panic situation surrounding some much-needed and extremely reasonable agriculture market reforms. On both occasions, days of riots were chosen carefully to get maximum global attention.

A dangerous cocktail of anti-government sentiments, created deliberately through sustained disinformation dissemination, radical religious ideologies, and organized mob violence, was used to unleash mayhem in India’s capital, much like it happened in Syria during the Arab Spring violence, to create a spectre of anarchy to not just shame the nation and symbols of its sovereignty, but to make every attempt to provoke the security agencies so that they fire incessantly in retaliation, which would result in fatalities.

For the anarchists, rabble-rousers, and their masterminds, the next plan was to ferry around those dead bodies, in case bullets were fired by the police, in funeral processions amidst war cries to create deep revulsion against the Government of India. The farm bill protest was a mere tool. The real objective was to cripple India from within through anarchy and then make it implode from within. Both the anti-CAA riots and the Republic Day riots were aimed at provoking violent retribution by law enforcement agencies, which then could be used as a justification (sic!!) to fuel more riots and make calls for global action or sanctions against India. That, perhaps, was what had been planned by the anarchists while taking cue from the Syrian Arab Spring template that resulted in a devastating civil war aided most generously by external elements to make sure that the country is destroyed from within.

But unlike Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian Army that fired at the violent mobs on rampage, and which gave justification for the anarchists in Syria to create the Free Syrian Army to wage an outright war, Modi government did not take the bait, neither in 2020 nor in 2021. That perhaps is the biggest regret of the anarchists, some of whom are now cribbing as to why the security forces did not fire in retaliation in order to control the violent rioters. In hindsight, it is their frustration speaking, because not only the Republic Day rampage made them lose the general public support but also made it clear that the farm issue is just a ploy for most of the rioters and anarchists out there shedding crocodile tears for farmers.

UNMASKING THE PLAYERS

If in 2020, the Popular Front of India (PFI) was under the scanner for its alleged role in funding of the anti-CAA riots, in the 2021 Republic Day rampage, the role of Khalistani organizations and the Communists is now out of the closet. In November 2020, the Khalistani organizations had planned the Referendum 2020 to gauge the global support for a separate Khalistani state among expatriate Sikh population. It was always an open secret that Pakistan’s deep state and the ISI were looking forward to it.

ALSO READ|Republic Day Violence: Farm Laws a Mere Smokescreen, Time to Unravel the Real Plot and Those Behind It

Surprisingly, the demand for a separate Khalistan in the Referendum 2020 agenda never included the Pakistani part of Punjab. However, plans for Referendum 2020 in general, and the demand for Khalistan, never got much traction in Punjab, barring some fringe groups. In fact, the Khalistani groups had been pushed to the fringe. They were desperate for an issue to latch on to and unleash their own agenda, knowing well that they cannot draw support merely over the Khalistan issue. In the farm law protests centered around Punjab and Haryana, they found the perfect ‘beast of burden’ to piggyback on, to spew hatred and to plan their ruckus against the Indian state.

Much like the Khalistani groups, the Communist groups too have been reduced to irrelevance in India over the last decade because of their Jurassic-age ideologies and sheer lack of vision for India’s aspirational future. Yet, even as they have lost their popularity across the spectrum of India, among rural communities of Punjab, much like an oasis, their sway remains strong. Even as the funding came from the Khalistani supporters abroad, the ISI-backed elements played their part to amplify the decibel through social media, and the rural mobilization was done by the Communist organizations through a series of disinformation campaigns to instill fear among the farming community. One has to remember that the no one in India has mastered the art of violent mobilization for destructive causes like the Communists. Communists in Bengal have to their credit the closure of more than 58,000 factories through violent militant trade unionism and organized rampage of factory premises, all in the name of labour welfare, during their 34 years of misrule there.

SHADOW-BOXING FOR RIOT MASTERMINDS

Meanwhile, even as this siege of Delhi and rampage on the Republic Day happened, shadow-boxing for riot masterminds was being done in India by those in the political arena who have been desperate to corner the Modi government and have found it terribly hard to pin it down electorally in the last six years.

In a country where a miniscule fraction of rich farmers, commission agents and middlemen have run Indian agriculture sector in a feudalistic manner for decades, and deprived more than 85 per cent of India’s farmers the choice of market freedom that resulted in hundreds of thousands of farmers committing suicide over the last few decades, sadly, a large section of India’s opposition political parties and even a section of media have found it more convenient to support those who want such monopolistic practices to continue than to be the voice of hundreds of millions of small farmers who would genuinely benefit from the new farm laws that would also unchain them from the stranglehold of the feudal farm lords and commission agents.

RESILIENT INDIA IS NOT SYRIA

It is true that India is not Syria and India’s resilience as a nation is unmatched. That is why neither the anti-CAA riots nor the Republic Day rampage got any support from the people of India. However, even though the rioters may have been shamed and cornered, they are still around, lurking in the hideouts and waiting for the next opportunity to spread mayhem. It is also true that India’s security agencies have shown tremendous restraint, be it during the Shaheen Bagh blockade, the anti-CAA riots or the rampage on Republic Day. The self-imposed restraint did take away from the anarchists the opportunity to take their conspiracy to the next level of nationwide violence, projecting the Government of India as ‘brutal’ and calling for international intervention to oust a democratically elected government, as it happened in Syria, followed by a civil war.

A PLAN TO DERAIL INVESTMENTS

It is not that no damage has been done to India through these riots. From planned destruction of thousands of mobile towers to destruction of public properties in Delhi, to storming of Red Fort, to siege of Delhi and a concerted attempt to defame and vilify India’s top corporate houses, each of these acts of anarchy did get covered in media across the world. One has to realize that one of the key objectives of the anarchists and those with vested interests is to project India in such a manner that major investments don’t land here. In other words, there is a concerted attempt to defame India as an investment destination, especially when major efforts are being made by the Government of India to project India as a global manufacturing hub and offer India as a safe destination for investments to organizations who have been keen to shift their production base from China to India.

ALSO READ| Khalistani Supporters Wanted to Turn January 26 into Jallianwala Bagh 2.0. Delhi Police Didn’t Fall into the Trap

Also, barely recovering from the pandemic-related crisis, the siege of major arterial routes of Delhi by protestors has already led to Delhi-based business entities suffering losses estimated at over Rs 50,000 crore, which can literally force closure of many factories if the siege continues. And, this is exactly what India’s adversaries want.

A TEMPLATE FOR PUNITIVE ACTION

Therefore, while the Indian security agencies and the Government of India have shown tremendous restraint in the face of provocative violence, in order to prevent fatalities which can trigger a fresh cycle of violence, it also has to be kept in mind that India’s patience should not be misconstrued as its weakness. For a country which has successfully countered all kinds of misadventures of Pakistan and China, it has to show a similar resolve, and not just composure, to deal ruthlessly with anarchists and rabble-rousers, if push comes to shove. India therefore needs a new set of laws, which would stringently prohibit blockade of national highways or major arterial routes connecting cities, and would make rioters, and their family members pay for the damages caused to public properties or critical infrastructure. Unless exemplary punitive action is not taken, this template of mob violence, that has been witnessed not just in Delhi but in the US too, can set a dangerous precedent, only to be repeated often by vested interests to paralyse policymaking and economic activities in India.

This is a new dimension of conflict against which tanks and fighter aircraft cannot be deployed. India would have to ruthlessly deal with it in other ways and make sure that its aspiration of becoming a $10-trillion economy by 2030-32 is not derailed by a bunch of rabble-rousers and their plot to create an Arab Spring-type of anarchy to destroy India from within.

Disclaimer:The author is a geopolitical analyst. Views expressed are personal.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Be It Farmers Protest, Covid Deaths or Vaccine Drive, Global Media’s Shrill Headlines Fail the Credibility Test

Be It Farmers Protest, Covid Deaths or Vaccine Drive, Global Media’s Shrill Headlines Fail the Credibility Test

An out-of-touch global media, suffering from a colonial hangover, should mend their ways or risk irrelevance.


JANUARY 28, 2021,
Abhishek Banerjee

“Angry farmers storm India’s Red Fort in challenge to Modi,” screams The Washington Post. A ‘challenge’? Is that the word we should be looking for? What is it called when a group of people storm a place in order to challenge a legitimately elected government? The Washington Post knows it well. They just used the term ‘insurrection’ for what happened at the US Capitol on January 6. They even had a scholarly debate of sorts on whether the storming of Capitol Hill should be called an attempted coup or an insurrection. But when it came to the storming of India’s Red Fort, The Washington Post held their fire. They even followed it up with an opinion piece on ‘Why Modi won’t listen to India’s farmers’.

That’s the privileged Western gaze. When it comes to the so-called third world, they do not acknowledge the legitimacy of any government. All votes are not created equal. Their democracy is sacred, ours is not.

From the pandemic to the storming of India’s Red Fort, the privileged Western gaze has been a feature of almost all reporting about India in global media. And like any good old-fashioned prejudice, they appear determined to stand by it to the bitter end. They are willing to remain ignorant, lose their own credibility and ignore the plight of common people in their own country.


AN ATTEMPT TO DEMONISE INDIA

Last week, Joe Biden, the newly inaugurated President of the United States, addressed his nation with the words: “there’s nothing we can do to change the trajectory of the pandemic in the next several months.” He went on to add that 400,000 Americans had died so far from Covid-19 and the death toll was likely to go past 600,000.

These grim words from the President barely registered in the consciousness of the American media. Over at The New York Times, they did a deep dive into the positive symbolism of Biden’s designer suit, his Rolex watch and everything else. Then, they repeated this analysis for everyone who took oath at the ceremony and whoever came with them. What about the fact that 200,000 Americans are expected to die of Covid-19 in the next few months? Not just in America, all of Western media swept it under the carpet, as if it were nothing.

ALSO READ| Khalistani Supporters Wanted to Turn January 26 into Jallianwala Bagh 2.0. Delhi Police Didn’t Fall into the Trap

This cavalier attitude of the Western media (which often doubles up as ‘global’ media) raises several questions. For over a year now, these publications have second-guessed, heckled and ridiculed every aspect of India’s coronavirus fight. If the President of the world’s richest and most powerful nation can write off 200,000 additional Covid deaths just like that, what explains the tone they took with India? Recently, Forbes spoke to 35 “experts” on India’s response to the pandemic. None of them appeared to have a good word to say about our government.

This, despite the fact that while our system was stretched, it never collapsed. Death counts stayed low in proportion to population. The economy bounced back sharply after the lockdown and India is now predicted to be the fastest growing economy in 2021. At the same time, India developed a vaccine on its own. As of now, we are not just running the world’s biggest vaccination programme, we are also churning out vaccines for the whole world. And, providing the vaccine for free to less-developed neighbours.

Forget a word of appreciation for our efforts and our large heart. The global media doesn’t just criticize us; they actively demonize us. They now say India is using the pandemic to squeeze people in Kashmir.

Let us quickly recap. First, they said India is not testing enough. When India began testing on a scale unmatched anywhere in the world, they said we were still behind, doing too few tests per million. But they reported cases and deaths in total numbers and not as a proportion of population. This always made India appear among the worst-affected in the world.

RUNNING DOWN VACCINATION DRIVE

Then, there was the lockdown. The economic misery that came with it, the sharp GDP drop, were all covered in gory detail. When the lockdown was being lifted, they said it was too early. The New York Times came up with the sharp headline that India’s pandemic was now the fastest growing in the world. But cases slowed soon after. Within weeks, there was a second wave in most European countries and their case numbers began growing at a much faster rate than ours. Did The New York Times put out a hostile headline about that? Of course not.

The BBC decided to put boots on the ground. In April 2020, they went ‘reporting’ in Mumbai and other cities to collect anecdotal evidence that India was under-counting both cases and deaths. Clearly, the BBC could not understand that with India’s massive population, there is no way for it to systematically under-count deaths and get away with it. Otherwise, with a curve that grows exponentially, the streets would be full of dead bodies in no time.

Meanwhile, medical staff in Europe and the US were reduced to wearing garbage bags in place of PPE kits, New York had to dig trenches for mass burials, but the BBC had its eyes only on India. Also, trust the BBC to bring the religion angle into how the poor in a country fared during the pandemic.

“The spirit of generosity is firmly hardwired into Pakistan’s DNA. .... Furthermore, according to Rizwan Hussain, author of The Oxford Encyclopedia of the Islamic World, “Pakistan is the only country to have been established in the name of Islam,” and this devout spirituality is reflected in its laws.”


ALSO READ: Covid Diplomacy: How India’s ‘Vaccine Maitri’ Jabs Have Put China on the Ropes

But India continued to soldier on. The economy began showing signs of revival. The Q2 GDP data showed clearly that the worst was over. The cash transfers to the poorest were small, but along with foodgrain distribution, just enough to help them tide over the crisis. We achieved this with a digital payment and distribution network that reaches even the last person in line. And India emerged from the worst of the crisis without breaking government finances.

Finally, the vaccine. The global media has fully tried to run down both India’s vaccines and vaccination programme. They could have served the cause of humanity much better by investigating how the Chinese government hid the pandemic in the first days and plunged the world into crisis. But their focus remains on the soft-target democracy, which produces vaccines for the whole world.

On March 13 last year, the UK-based newspaper The Independent published an alarming headline about the “horror story of virus mismanagement” in India. They were reporting on India’s first confirmed Covid death. At that time, the death toll in India stood at one while countries such as Italy were averaging over a hundred deaths each day. You can’t miss the barely concealed, morbid undertone in the headline. Why aren’t more Indians dying?

AN OUT-OF-TOUCH GROUP?

Ironically, the Western media and their editors, who are all fluent in the language of global liberalism, should have been the first to recognize this phenomenon for what it is: privilege. Or racism, if you want to put it more crudely. As a country of brown people, we are treated as permanently suspect. All our faults are magnified to an extreme degree. They give a wide berth to themselves, but not to us. And if India seems to be doing better than expected, they get obsessed with trashing us.

This is sad. I do not know of any Indian who ever wishes death and destruction on any Western country. We mourn when they suffer natural disasters or terrorist attacks. We see them as friendly democracies. Why is it so hard for the media in Western countries to return the favour?

We could have been bitter and resentful about the colonial past. We choose not to.

ALSO READ| Cornered by India's Vaccine Diplomacy, China Spurs Smear Campaign against SII-produced Covishield

Now, it may feel like I am pouring out a sense of hurt and anguish at a biased global media that refuses to give us our due. Partly, yes. But I am also doing them a favour. I am telling them that the only way they can save their credibility is by getting rid of their prejudice against India.

Because reality waits for nobody, least of all a group of people who are out of touch, hopelessly stuck with a 19th century colonial worldview. Recently, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development tweeted that India and China were the only major economies to see FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) growth in 2020. FDI into China grew by 4 per cent while it grew by 13 per cent for India, year-on-year, which is the highest in the world. Investors who have real skin in the game are voting with their dollars. And they have started to ignore what the ‘global’ media says about India. The ‘global’ media can either mend their ways or become a laughing stock. The choice is theirs.


Disclaimer:The writer is a mathematician, columnist and author. Views expressed are personal.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Kaivalya »

habal wrote:gentlemen, I have certain thoughts over the weekend so hear me out will you
Are their any similarities with what is happening in Dilli ?
Yes. Anarchy and stopping the roads are the similarity. By your words pakis do not have a democracy. They need to stop traffic etc. Indians do not have to resort to that level. The only reason all the political parties are hiding behind rabble rousers is because they dont have a coherent argument till date. Every demand from the last 5 years are put in the bucket.

Does this seem like from the Soros school of democracy ?? Yes with a stupid parallel drawn/narrative that Modi is right wing and dictatorial ignoring all ground level improvements from drinking water to healthcare.
Secondly there are weaknesses in govt strategy dealing with the problem. NM & AS seem like folks who want to be seen as doing everything everywhere
funny thing is you will see pages of content in preceding pages of brf to the opposite.
Thirdly what exactly is the need for farm laws if the govt says it is to benefit farmers and farmers say it will not benefit them at all.
This policy has been in the works forever. Please look at the antecedents. This is not some new fangled idea. Also look at the rest of the country. It is not like only punjabi region is farming.
Corporate farming will bring massive riches to the corporates but what it will also within 5 years leave ...
Saar, is this what is happening in rest of india now? It seems to be corporate Eeevil is a standard bogeyman absent reason in this case
Looking at petroleum sector in India which is a scam at play charging highest prices for a litre
Please dont conflate issues that are not related

So if for a moment one considers these protest as a noble cause hijacked by a bunch of ignobles ?
For a moment suspend your kind heart , this has not been done as a measure of economic growth activity. This has been a large hole of tax payer money leaking into rich brokers that has been blocked.
Last edited by Kaivalya on 01 Feb 2021 19:21, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ambar »

There's a great irony in someone complaining about high fuel prices but at the same time demanding the continuation and codification of MSP !
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

India has been controlled by foreigners for awhile so for someone to use that as a fig leaf isn't worth responding here but on the streets where analysis is lacking. From weapons to cell phone apps, it's all foreign.

Heck, USAID even dictated how much population of Hindus that India can have.

India being agriculture oriented doesn't have any big agricultural company that is worldwide. Enough said. But the audience that will be brain washed doesn't frequent this forum.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ramana »

Chetak Its my conclusion is there was a anti-national theme to the farm riot on 26 January. If you see the timelines and the places of the riot the real target was the R-Day parade and national leadership gathered there. The Red Fort was targeted after being thwarted. I hope NIA is probing all aspects of the riot.

Masked inside the riot was a plan to attack the leadership at the R Day.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

ramana wrote:Chetak Its my conclusion is there was a anti-national theme to the farm riot on 26 January. If you see the timelines and the places of the riot the real target was the R-Day parade and national leadership gathered there. The Red Fort was targeted after being thwarted. I hope NIA is probing all aspects of the riot.

Masked inside the riot was a plan to attack the leadership at the R Day.
disruption of the R day would have made a global impact and called into question the competence of the leadership

why is it so difficult for the agencies to game properly and derisk accordingly.

tractors being weaponized was a very real possibility, especially when pictures of tractors modified as battering rams and fitted with safety cages were rife on whatsapp.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Primus »

chanakyaa wrote:
Tanaji wrote:...Is it an existential threat to Modi or will it dent his popularity? No. But it stands to affect BJP’s chances in western UP where the Tikait gang holds sway. To be honest, I don’t know if BJP won from those areas though, so it might turn to be a non issue.....
Dhirendra Pundir and Sanjay Dixit-ji's video posted above specifically talks about this issue in depth. In summary, it appears to be a non-issue.
+108

In one of the discussions (there are two sessions), Pundir talks about how Jayant Chaudhary touching the feet of a local muslim leader on the same stage is tantamount to committing political suicide, as that will be seen in a very negative light by the same Jaat community. In fact, he goes on to say that all of these leaders (Tikait and Co, including Chaudhary) lost their deposits in the previous elections (twice), so in reality they are not as popular as one would make them out to be.

Yes, turning the whole thing into a caste issue was quite smart but will not carry much weight in the end. A significant proportion of the Delhi Police is also from the same caste and they are pi$$ed off as hell. Same for the armed forces from the area.

As for the news that Tikait was beaten up by the Khalistanis - there is no independent confirmation of this as yet.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ramana »

However we hope it gets real.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ambar »

Primus wrote:
chanakyaa wrote:
As for the news that Tikait was beaten up by the Khalistanis - there is no independent confirmation of this as yet.
Tikait is on the UP border and surrounded by jats,so no khalistanis can touch him there. Besides, after the 26/1 debacle Tikait is taking the heat off the khalistanis so why will they beat him up now ? That said many among jats and gujjars are seething with anger after the "naare takbir allah hu akbar" slogans in the panchayats. The shantidoots are civilizational enemies to many communities here and it is unthinkable for them to their biradari chowdharies shake hands with the very people who have killed many family members of the jats.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

One has to look at how lands are changing hands and that's where digitization would be of help. Hopefully. Non Hindus are controlling disproportionate amount of land and usurping even more. At any given day, I rather have corporates control the lands than halal mafia. Or is it that this evil corporate bogey has been instilled in normal Hindu minds just to allow non Hindu entities to usurp lands? Corporates would fight back and will have money power. An individual Hindu loosing land to non Hindu would not have might to fight.

During the peak chinese virus time, there's some knowledge provided by a local street hawker selling vegetables: no point in realizing this late who's selling you vegetables. The whole chain has already been acquired by non Hindus so choosing a vegetable guy in front of you isn't going to make your food supply chain secure. Like Pushpendra keeps saying: Hindus are being pushed away from various places and they don't even know it. Halal groups controlling food supply chain from land to vegetable hawker should be of a bigger concern than the evil corporations.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Image
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

Let's continue to march towards oblivion.
Punjab: Hindu Temple attacked in Phillaur, gunmen shoot priest, girl
https://www.opindia.com/2021/02/punjab- ... iest-girl/
On January 31, a Hindu temple priest identified as Sant Gyan Muni was attacked by unknown assailants in Phillaur, Punjab. A 16-year-old girl who came to his rescue was also shot during the incident. As per a report in Jagbani, two assailants had opened fire on the priest. A girl identified as Simran came to his rescue, but she was shot too. They were rushed to the DMC hospital in critical condition. The incident took place in Bhar Singh Pura village of Phillaur during the early morning hours.
...
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Primus »

Ambar wrote:
Primus wrote:
Tikait is on the UP border and surrounded by jats,so no khalistanis can touch him there. Besides, after the 26/1 debacle Tikait is taking the heat off the khalistanis so why will they beat him up now ? That said many among jats and gujjars are seething with anger after the "naare takbir allah hu akbar" slogans in the panchayats. The shantidoots are civilizational enemies to many communities here and it is unthinkable for them to their biradari chowdharies shake hands with the very people who have killed many family members of the jats.
On the evening after the debacle at the Red Fort, Tikait was surrounded by mainly Sikhs, if you look at the videos. There were less than 100 people on the ground as per live reports (that I saw). He then comes out crying - sobbing, literally. It is possible that he was indeed beaten up by the Khalistanis.

It is obvious that he was paid off by somebody to foment this agitation as he had clearly endorsed the new laws himself in June of 2020, his father had been agitating for these very same laws to be passed since 1987. Who the paymasters are is unclear, quite possibly the Khalistanis since it was his group that stormed the Red Fort and hoisted the flags - the groups at Tikri and other borders were not able to reach that area, it was his people who managed to.

Once he started the crying nautanki is when he changed his tune and called it an attack on the Jaat community, which is why the people of his community felt compelled to come to his aid - caste usually trumps everything else in India. The Jaats and Gujjars are usually opposed to each other.

The reason why you hear muslim sloganeering is possibly because the Peacefuls are being roped into this 'protest' to enlarge the scope of the agitation, hence the 'feet-touching' by Jayant Chaudhary of the Muslim leader on stage.

According to Pundir (I highly recommend watching his two sessions with Sanjay Dixit on JD), the Jaats and Peacefuls have come together in the past for elections although the other communities (Gujjars and other OBC) got together and defeated them.

I do not expect Tikait to continue for too long here. There is a lot of anger among the overall Jaat community for the manner in which the Khalistanis and others beat up the Delhi cops and insulted the Tiranga.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by vijayk »

Thanks for the news Primusji
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ashokk »

Farm unions announce 'Chakka Jam' on February 6, Tomar flags Budget provisions and appeal to them to think positively
NEW DELHI: Farmers’ unions agitating for repeal of central farm laws on Monday announced national-wide road blockade on state and national highways for three hours (12-3 PM) on February 6 even as agriculture minister Narendra Singh Tomar said the Budget cleared all doubts over contentious issues relating to the legislations and appealed to farmer leaders to think about it positively.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by VKumar »

Actually farmers have long overlooked food processing industry. Even small value add will yield good rewards. Thanks to past 20 years of imports of processed foodstuff under OGL, there is now a very large market for processed foods. But even though Harsimran Badal was minister of food processing industries, Punjab did not take advantage.

Keep in mind that the water level is falling and already low. There is high use of pesticides and fertilizers. These have leached into the drinking water causing high incidence of cancer.

This agitation is only to preserve the way of life for those who are destroying the state of Punjab.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ManSingh »

Primus wrote:
Ambar wrote:
Tikait is on the UP border and surrounded by jats,so no khalistanis can touch him there. Besides, after the 26/1 debacle Tikait is taking the heat off the khalistanis so why will they beat him up now ? That said many among jats and gujjars are seething with anger after the "naare takbir allah hu akbar" slogans in the panchayats. The shantidoots are civilizational enemies to many communities here and it is unthinkable for them to their biradari chowdharies shake hands with the very people who have killed many family members of the jats.
On the evening after the debacle at the Red Fort, Tikait was surrounded by mainly Sikhs, if you look at the videos. There were less than 100 people on the ground as per live reports (that I saw). He then comes out crying - sobbing, literally. It is possible that he was indeed beaten up by the Khalistanis.

It is obvious that he was paid off by somebody to foment this agitation as he had clearly endorsed the new laws himself in June of 2020, his father had been agitating for these very same laws to be passed since 1987. Who the paymasters are is unclear, quite possibly the Khalistanis since it was his group that stormed the Red Fort and hoisted the flags - the groups at Tikri and other borders were not able to reach that area, it was his people who managed to.

Once he started the crying nautanki is when he changed his tune and called it an attack on the Jaat community, which is why the people of his community felt compelled to come to his aid - caste usually trumps everything else in India. The Jaats and Gujjars are usually opposed to each other.

The reason why you hear muslim sloganeering is possibly because the Peacefuls are being roped into this 'protest' to enlarge the scope of the agitation, hence the 'feet-touching' by Jayant Chaudhary of the Muslim leader on stage.

According to Pundir (I highly recommend watching his two sessions with Sanjay Dixit on JD), the Jaats and Peacefuls have come together in the past for elections although the other communities (Gujjars and other OBC) got together and defeated them.

I do not expect Tikait to continue for too long here. There is a lot of anger among the overall Jaat community for the manner in which the Khalistanis and others beat up the Delhi cops and insulted the Tiranga.
Tikait was never beaten up. He was the one who slapped someone and called him a BJP worker.

What did happen was due to the red fort incident, an FIR was lodged against him and the cops came to arrest him and the DM asked that the protest site be cleared asap. Taking advantage of the situation as the tide was turning against the agitation, a Gujjar MLA of the BJP decided to take advantage of the situation. He basically asked for Tikait to be publicly hung and that the protest site be handed to his supporters by the police so that his supporters could clear the site. Tikait on seeing that this would not end well for him, decided to stay put and asked his supporters to gather in numbers.

This effort at attempting a personal gain at the expense of the BJP govt ( as it was an advantageous position ) has caused some infighting in the various BJP factions of that area.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by vijayk »

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by vhirani »

VKumar wrote:Actually farmers have long overlooked food processing industry. Even small value add will yield good rewards. Thanks to past 20 years of imports of processed foodstuff under OGL, there is now a very large market for processed foods. But even though Harsimran Badal was minister of food processing industries, Punjab did not take advantage.

Keep in mind that the water level is falling and already low. There is high use of pesticides and fertilizers. These have leached into the drinking water causing high incidence of cancer.

This agitation is only to preserve the way of life for those who are destroying the state of Punjab.
Food processing in Gujarat was heavily promoted during CM Modi's time, doing quite well, even though there is a lot more that still needs to be done. See link
https://foodprocessingindia.gov.in/stat ... ujarat.pdf
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Primus »

ManSingh wrote:
Primus wrote:
On the evening after the debacle at the Red Fort, Tikait was surrounded by mainly Sikhs, if you look at the videos. There were less than 100 people on the ground as per live reports (that I saw). He then comes out crying - sobbing, literally. It is possible that he was indeed beaten up by the Khalistanis.

It is obvious that he was paid off by somebody to foment this agitation as he had clearly endorsed the new laws himself in June of 2020, his father had been agitating for these very same laws to be passed since 1987. Who the paymasters are is unclear, quite possibly the Khalistanis since it was his group that stormed the Red Fort and hoisted the flags - the groups at Tikri and other borders were not able to reach that area, it was his people who managed to.

Once he started the crying nautanki is when he changed his tune and called it an attack on the Jaat community, which is why the people of his community felt compelled to come to his aid - caste usually trumps everything else in India. The Jaats and Gujjars are usually opposed to each other.

The reason why you hear muslim sloganeering is possibly because the Peacefuls are being roped into this 'protest' to enlarge the scope of the agitation, hence the 'feet-touching' by Jayant Chaudhary of the Muslim leader on stage.

According to Pundir (I highly recommend watching his two sessions with Sanjay Dixit on JD), the Jaats and Peacefuls have come together in the past for elections although the other communities (Gujjars and other OBC) got together and defeated them.

I do not expect Tikait to continue for too long here. There is a lot of anger among the overall Jaat community for the manner in which the Khalistanis and others beat up the Delhi cops and insulted the Tiranga.
Tikait was never beaten up. He was the one who slapped someone and called him a BJP worker.

What did happen was due to the red fort incident, an FIR was lodged against him and the cops came to arrest him and the DM asked that the protest site be cleared asap. Taking advantage of the situation as the tide was turning against the agitation, a Gujjar MLA of the BJP decided to take advantage of the situation. He basically asked for Tikait to be publicly hung and that the protest site be handed to his supporters by the police so that his supporters could clear the site. Tikait on seeing that this would not end well for him, decided to stay put and asked his supporters to gather in numbers.

This effort at attempting a personal gain at the expense of the BJP govt ( as it was an advantageous position ) has caused some infighting in the various BJP factions of that area.
It is possible you are right. There is so much uncertainty here. However, the following facts seem obvious even to me (and I admit I am not usually well versed with local politics even though I am from Haryana).

1. Tikait was pro-farm bill initially.
2. He then turned completely against it - no reason other than that he was bought off by some agencies - that much is self-evident.
3. His group was the one that had plenty of Sikhs in it and these were the people who managed to reach Red Fort. The ones agitating at Tikri border and Singhu border did not get that far. Even on the day after the incidents, he was surrounded by Sikhs on the stage.
4. He again changed his tune suddenly, calling it an anti-Jaat event. He was obviously crying at the time.

The FIR was lodged against him and many others on the evening of the 26th itself, the turnaround in his behavior came about the next evening. At the time there was a large police presence there as shown on various live channels. There was at the same time a lot of Sikh presence on stage and in the field.

What is the source of your information?
mmasand
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by mmasand »

There is a petition doing the rounds in the UK to raise 'human rights violations' in relation to the ongoing protests, if it receives a certain threshold of signatures, the House of Commons is compelled to take it up for debate. Now this is a catch 22 situation for Boris, as MP's raising such questions can be easily managed, but when you have an open floor and Labour MP's from Leicester who have managed to garner support of the otherwise pro Indian Gujarati community, it is telling of our diplomatic outposts. The CAA issues were far better handled overseas, the only reason I can think of why the US, or EU admin has not waded their way in is because of the impediment to an FTA.
Ashokk
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ashokk »

Farmers' stir: Cops erect walls at border, plant spikes to stall protest
NEW DELHI: Delhi Police is securing the borders, and how! Roads are being dug up with cranes, iron grills and spikes are being cemented to the ground, layers of barricades are being laid out – with concrete poured between two barriers for stability – and concertina wire and boulders placed to create more obstacles.
Stung by the violence on January 26, which caught them off-guard, and determined to prevent a repetition, the cops are going to extraordinary lengths to keep the protesting farmers at Singhu, Tikri and Ghazipur grounded.
On Monday, a photograph of some policemen wearing an armour-like gear went viral on social media. :shock: These steel batons have a forearm guard and were put on trial after over 500 personnel complained of receiving injuries on their hand while handling the protesters on Republic Day. It was clarified that their use was yet to be approved and only a few were being tested at Shahdara. “We will not use them till our senior officers give us the nod,” said a cop.
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A call has been given for a three-hour chakka jam on February 6 by the Samyukt Kisan Morcha to protest against these measures, arrests, suspension of internet, sealing of roads, stoppage of water supply and, of course, the farm laws. The cops are imposing a kind of chakka jam of their own by installing tyre slashers.
Meanwhile, police commissioner S N Shrivastava visited the Ghazipur border and took stock of the security arrangements there. He also addressed his men from atop a barricade.
There was some consternation among the locals and farmers at Tikri when digging up of roads started on Sunday night. Some took to twitter. By morning iron grills and spikes had been embedded in the dug-up area and cemented with boulders placed ahead of this area to separate the protest site from the cops.
On Monday morning, a concrete mixer truck was busy pouring fresh batches of cement mixture in the wide gap between barricades at Singhu border with labourers fortifying this later by welding iron rods with hooks to the barriers. New batches of concrete barriers kept arriving and a crane was used to arrange them in a maze. This continued till the evening under the strict supervision of Delhi Police and an RAF contingent as the administration tried to isolate the main protest township on Delhi-Chandigarh highway.
Over the last couple of days, a five-layer barricading with trucks, cranes, containers and concrete bars had been set up on the Delhi side and a no-vehicle zone, several kilometres long, put in place. Equipped with Vajra vehicles, cranes and-riot control vans, this zone can now be accessed only by the cops with the media being allowed to enter on foot.
Multiple vehicle-mounted loudspeaker systems were found to be blaring high-pitched patriotic songs right next to the stage set up by Kisan Mazdoor Sangharsh Committee in what seemed to be a move to create psychological pressure. The playlist had a variety of songs, from ‘Chale Chalo’ from ‘Lagaan’ to other popular ones from the film, ‘Border’. A police officer said this was intended to keep the morale of the security personnel high.

Barriers have been placed on the approach roads too and people have to take a detour of a few kilometres through paddy fields behind the industrial units on either side of the road to reach the protest site. Gurtej Singh, a young farmer from Moga, said that the government was treating its own people like outsiders. “Punish those who carried out wrong acts at Lal Quila but what is the point of raising walls at the borders of the national capital?” he asked.
Meanwhile, the police commissioner on Monday announced a compensation of Rs 25,000 for the cops who were injured grievously in the January 26 riots and Rs 10,000 for those with other serious injuries. The district DCPs have been asked to propose enhanced financial assistance in special cases.
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