Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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Uttam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Uttam »

IndraD wrote:
however same Israel published editorial that one dose of Pfizer unable to prevent covid infection, after which UK govt has preponed 3 months interval to asap, now.
I agree. There is a lot of unknown. This new study is not yet peer-reviewed. Tel Aviv Univ. Has a fairly good reputation for research but nothing can be said until a proper peer review.
Vayutuvan
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Vayutuvan »

TAU is not 'fairly' good. It is very good, at least in CompSci.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by dhyana »

DavidD wrote:
...
sampat wrote:
is there any data on safety of Pfizer or Moderna vaccines. My father have epilepsy, high bp, COPD bcos of smoking, diabetes and headaches quite often. Most probably he will be given Pfizer shot(we live in EU).

can any learned member tell if is it safe for him to get vaccinated? he has been staying at home since last year.
Two years back he also had a severe headache after taking seasonal flu vaccine.

Is there any pretest that can determine if person could get severe side effects? We are worried after hearing stories about vaccine causing severe side effects and death in some cases.
...

How old is your father? Here's a link to the data Pfizer presented to the US FDA. Page 33 onward has the safety data. Note that the cutoff age for the phase 1 (purely safety analysis) is 85 and only 4.3% of the patients in phase 2/3 are above 75 years old.
That's about as good as the data gets, at least until we get more published data coming out of Israel (which essentially has handed over to Pfizer nationwide Phase 4 post-marketing analysis- of incalculable value to a pharmaceutical company).

And while there is concern regarding the vaccine's side effects (especially with respect to the aforementioned allergic reaction susceptibility), the data is very clear... for the vast majority of people, the benefits far outweigh the risks. Your father has at least 3 'high risk' factors for developing severe COVID disease if infected. Back of the hand calculation: might as well take the published mortality data for COVID (by age group) and just double it. CDC Guidance Regarding People with Certain Medical Conditions

Unless one has a history of allergic reactions or other very narrow criteria (couldn't tolerate any vaccines, etc.), then vaccination is generally recommended solely based on the above risk profile.

Regarding the reported side effects, the problem is one of correlation vs causation. The yellow-journalism media and rapid-fire pace of the pandemic- and treatments for the same- combine for dizzying stats. It's unclear if any of the vaccines have been proven to cause a single death- short of some potentially concerning cases which 'might' be allergy-related.

Then again, this is like the re-infection bogey-man. Yes, it can happen (and more likely with the mutated variants), but how many reinfections out of total infections worldwide? Similarly, how many severe vaccination reactions (dozens to at most possibly hundreds?) have been reported vs how many people have been vaccinated (approx. 150million to date). No one can give an absolute answer as to risk, but for my father, I'd take those odds any day.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chanakyaa »

Puzzling why Bharat Biotech decided to partner with a small, lesser know, zero-revenue company to develop COVAXIN for the US market.

Ocugen (Malvern, Pennsylvania) has Indian names in the management -- Sanjay Subramanian (Chief Financial Officer), Shankar Musunuri (CEO)

Ocugen and Bharat Biotech Announce Execution of Definitive Agreement for the Commercialization of COVAXIN™ in the US Market
Ocugen, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering, developing, and commercializing gene therapies to cure blindness diseases and developing a vaccine to fight COVID-19, and Bharat Biotech, a global leader in vaccine innovation, today announced they have entered into a definitive agreement to co-develop, supply, and commercialize Bharat Biotech’s COVAXIN™, an advanced stage whole-virion inactivated COVID-19 vaccine candidate, for the United States market.

Under the terms of the agreement, Ocugen will have US rights to the vaccine candidate and will be responsible for clinical development, regulatory approval (including EUA) and commercialization for the US market. Bharat Biotech will supply initial doses to be used in the US upon Ocugen’s receipt of an EUA. In addition, Bharat Biotech will support the technology transfer for manufacturing in the US. In consideration for the exclusive license to the US market, Ocugen will share the profits from the sale of COVAXIN™ in the US market with Bharat Biotech, with Ocugen retaining 45% of the profits.
...
sampat
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sampat »

Thank you David and Dhyanaji for your input. We will accept the vaccine when offered. Thanks again.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Primus »

^ just to add that it is as safe as can be, and any side effects are well worth the risk, given that getting COVID would be a very serious event for him. My in-laws, aged 81 amd 87 got Moderna vaccine here without any side effects. SHQ and I both got the Pfizer version, I was completely asymptomatic while she had very high fever for two days after the second dose. Regardless, as others have said, there is no way to predict an individual's response in terms of side effects.

I would highly recommend everyone get the vaccine unless there is a major contraindication like severe anaphylaxis to anything, even then having emergency meds and services nearby (getting it in a hospital setting) would be very helpful in negative any possible reaction.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Uttam »

COVID-19: Vaccines cut infection rates after the first jab by up to two-thirds - study
Vaccines cut infection rates after the first jab by up to two-thirds, according to a British study likely to put pressure on Boris Johnson to lift lockdown faster.

Early results of the vast UK study on the impact of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine rollout suggests that the level of protection was about 60% to 65%.

The results applied to vaccine recipients of all ages, and protection began after two weeks.
The figures, first reported in The Sun and confirmed by a Whitehall source, showed that one dose reduced the symptomatic infection risk by 65% in younger adults and 64% in over-80s.

Protection for those given two shots rose to between 79% and 84%, depending on age.


A source told Sky News that the data was contained in a draft paper into vaccine efficacy and early indications were good news. However, scientists were waiting for more data and the final figures may differ from the draft.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

Suraj wrote:6.26 million vaccinated so far, 440K yesterday. The vaccination rate is stubbornly stuck between 400-550k a day. Does anyone have insight or information on what's preventing them from ramping this up to a few million doses administered per day ? Where are they bottlenecked here ?
Anecdotal information - healthcare workers in rural areas are yet to be reached and hesitancy is causing slowdowns. District hospitals have ample supply. However the 1 transverse myelitis side effect reported during the Ox-Az vaccine trial caused some healthcare workers to wait until Covaxin was offered.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Atmavik »

https://www.kooapp.com/koo/AartiTikooSingh-23456/AN768


Aarti Tikoo Singh
@aartitikoo
23h
followed
Journalist
What a beautiful statement by Prime Minister of Dominica, Roosevelt Skerrit, about Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Vaccine Maitri ! India’s compassion and generosity are being recognised worldwide.
Zynda
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Zynda »

Still doing around 5L vaccinations per day...just refusing to ramp up. I believe the 2nd booster shots start from today...so expect more slowing down. I don't think Govt will do this but by mid-March, time to open up the vaccinations to general public even if its for aged people initially. I think GoI has already made up its mind that vaccination will be a year long or more process and hence measured pace. Also read that BBMP is willing to contribute only 1000 staff for Ph-3 vaccinations...to me it seems like even if at central level, GoI wants to speed up, somehow that message is not being implemented at local levels. Hence my suggestion that GoI should start opening up vaccinations at private hospitals etc. even for cost.

Anyways, know GoI & local bodies will do what they want at their pace onlee...hopefully there will be no more waves.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sudeepj »

The vaccination rate must pick up fast or we may be in a pickle come summer season just two and a half months away. In India, as temperatures rise, people spend more time indoors resulting in lower vit D, and with AirConditioning turned on. A combination of these reasons is probably the reason why infections spiked up in june/july 2020. But we are starting with a much higher case load this time. Last march, we barely had 20,000 TOTAL active cases, while we are reporting about 10,000 cases every day today. The thing with exponential growth is you wont realize that the disease is about to overwhelm you almost until its too late. The danger may even increase in case we are unlucky enough to import the more infections South African or British variants of the virus

At the current rate of a half million vaccines a day, we would have vaccinated barely 30-40 million people by May when I expect infections to start surging again. This is not nearly enough! We will be entering the peak infection season with barely 5%-10% of the population immune to the virus (from vaccines or infections). This is not a good place to be and we may be seeing national shutdowns again come July if the pace doesnt accelerate in the next week or two. The tone of self congratulation and smugness that has crept in among govt. and media will be hard to justify if we are again in a soup in July.

Covid news is off the newspaper front pages, and it looks like everyone is very relaxed about the rules, dangers etc. The govt. must issue a rule that if you refuse vaccination when offered, you will go to the back of the line and wont get a chance for several months or even an year!
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Zynda »

Lukewarm response to COVID-19 vaccination at BBMP
The second phase of vaccination drive for frontline workers in the city was flagged off with the vaccine being administered to Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike (BBMP) Administrator Gaurav Gupta, Commissioner N. Manjunath Prasad and special commissioners, on Tuesday.

However, the response from other officials was lukewarm. According to information available, till 6 p.m. on Tuesday, of the targeted 600 BBMP officials who were to be vaccinated, only 127 volunteered for the same.

In the second phase, 33,000 BBMP staff, including pourakarmikas, and 27,000 personnel from revenue and police departments had been identified. The Commissioner said that already 1,000 pourakarmikas had been vaccinated.

In the third phase, citizens who are above the age of 50 and those under 50 with co-morbid conditions will be vaccinated, and the survey work to identify the beneficiaries would be taken up next week, he said.

“Many people, including pourakarmikas, are hesitant to take the vaccine. They are scared of the side-effects and also fear they may not be able to consume alcohol once vaccinated. All such misconceptions about the vaccine must be cleared,” he said.

Meanwhile, the State on Tuesday recorded a coverage of 22% with 22,623 of the targeted 1,02,273 healthcare and frontline workers taking the COVID-19 vaccine. Bidar recorded the lowest coverage with 7% and Chikkamagalur the highest with 55%.

Overall, the State has achieved 40.7% coverage with 4,41,642 of the 10,83,612 healthcare and front line workers vaccinated.
I can attest for the fear or probably misinformation being spread about the vaccine. Spoke to a lady who is beyond 50 and told her that BBMP might come to her household to collect info about people beyond 50 for Covid vaccination. Immediately she said that people have told her not to take vaccine as many people are dying from it. I did my part informing her and told her to get proper counsel from a person she trusts.

Anyways, it seems like Government is still insistent on enrolling people's name in to the list who are hesitant or don't want the vaccine at this time. I mean 40% of target has been achieved after 1 month.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Raja »

sudeepj wrote:The vaccination rate must pick up fast or we may be in a pickle come summer season just two and a half months away. In India, as temperatures rise, people spend more time indoors resulting in lower vit D, and with AirConditioning turned on. A combination of these reasons is probably the reason why infections spiked up in june/july 2020. But we are starting with a much higher case load this time. Last march, we barely had 20,000 TOTAL active cases, while we are reporting about 10,000 cases every day today. The thing with exponential growth is you wont realize that the disease is about to overwhelm you almost until its too late. The danger may even increase in case we are unlucky enough to import the more infections South African or British variants of the virus
There is no way we are going to be able to vaccinate enough people by summer to avoid a second wave (if a second wave is coming). However, if we can at least manage to get most of the vulnerable populations inoculated then the death rate will not be as bad. But, even that does not look very promising. We seem to be happy with being the "fastest one" to get to some random absolute number citing per capita numbers for infections, and absolute numbers for vaccinations. After all, it is India only and one man can only make so much of a difference. All the resources and energy being wasted on farm protests, instead of facing the ongoing war that we must face.

This does not even take into account the uncertainty around Covidshield's impact on some of the mutations and Covaxin's efficacy in general. Hopefully, it will all turn out for the best, but things could also go very wrong.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nvishal »

Even with the threat of new variants, cases across the world are coming down. Gossip mongers are pointing towards "herd immunity" but real reason is mystery. It is said that viruses develop a "live and let live" attitude with their hosts(humans) and become less pathogenic as time goes by(~50 years). Unlikely that covid19 virus has adopted such policy in just 18 months. Very mysterious indeed.

Since the start of 2020, the disease has infected over 108 million people globally. Of that, 2.4 million succumbed to it. Roughly 2.4% strike rate.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sudeepj »

Raja wrote:
sudeepj wrote:The vaccination rate must pick up fast or we may be in a pickle come summer season just two and a half months away. In India, as temperatures rise, people spend more time indoors resulting in lower vit D, and with AirConditioning turned on. A combination of these reasons is probably the reason why infections spiked up in june/july 2020. But we are starting with a much higher case load this time. Last march, we barely had 20,000 TOTAL active cases, while we are reporting about 10,000 cases every day today. The thing with exponential growth is you wont realize that the disease is about to overwhelm you almost until its too late. The danger may even increase in case we are unlucky enough to import the more infections South African or British variants of the virus
There is no way we are going to be able to vaccinate enough people by summer to avoid a second wave (if a second wave is coming). However, if we can at least manage to get most of the vulnerable populations inoculated then the death rate will not be as bad. But, even that does not look very promising. We seem to be happy with being the "fastest one" to get to some random absolute number citing per capita numbers for infections, and absolute numbers for vaccinations. After all, it is India only and one man can only make so much of a difference. All the resources and energy being wasted on farm protests, instead of facing the ongoing war that we must face.

This does not even take into account the uncertainty around Covidshield's impact on some of the mutations and Covaxin's efficacy in general. Hopefully, it will all turn out for the best, but things could also go very wrong.
India only has about 400 million people above 40, the age at which covid starts becoming a really serious illness. We can certainly 'do it', I.e. vaccinate enough people to seriously slow down the disease to a manageable level, but we need to hurry up and launch vaccination awareness and mass vaccination camps. Instead of narrow targeted phases, just do an age window and let people decide/use their own brains whether they need the vaccine or not! once there is more demand than supply, crowd psychology will mean everyone will want to get it!

If this virus beats us up again in july-aug, the govt machinery that is preening right now wont have any place to hide!
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Raja »

nvishal wrote:Even with the threat of new variants, cases across the world are coming down. Gossip mongers are pointing towards "herd immunity" but real reason is mystery.
Well most places had to reimpose strict lockdowns in the past 4 months, so is it that mysterious that cases are coming down again? Most of Europe is still under rather strict lockdown and cases are going down stubbornly slowly. And there are also places where cases have gone up again in the past month like Peru.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

Aside from the Chattisgarh case now in the news (where local government is disrupting vaccine supply), heard another case where vaccines were held back for a town and distributed out of order due to political or personal rivalry.

A legal framework is needed to tackle such cases.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by mmasand »

HT reporting that only 4% of those scheduled to receive their second shot showed up pan India, Delhi being the exception where 43% of those in line for their second shot turned out. The Govt should get it's act together and work on awareness campaigns for HCW on a war footing.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Zynda »

42 nursing students test positive in Bengaluru
This is where vaccination of HCWs (where even medical college students are eligible) helps but our folks are just not turning up...
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Raja »

Maybe adding Covaxin to the mix without the trial 3 results was overall a negative. It got lot of bad press and to this date the exact context of it is rather confusing and not particularly transparent. Last thing you want with mass vaccination is confusion and lack of transparency. Given that we have more than enough Covidshield vaccines, the question does arise if there was any need to jump the gun instead of waiting till March when the results will come out. Now if the vaccine fails the trial, it will hurt the cause even more.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

Zynda wrote:42 nursing students test positive in Bengaluru
This is where vaccination of HCWs (where even medical college students are eligible) helps but our folks are just not turning up...
Students are young and at low risk. Further, students cannot afford even mild side effects of the vaccination since exams are being held as normal. Summer vacations will see more response from students.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

These would have received the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine.

Four people in Oregon who received both doses of vaccine test positive for coronavirus
The agency referred to the individuals who tested positive as "breakthrough cases," meaning that they got sick with the virus at least 14 days after receiving both doses.
"Clinical trials of both vaccines presently in use included breakthrough cases. In those cases, even though the participants got Covid, the vaccines reduced the severity of illness," the agency said in a tweet.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by saip »

In India, after a very long time there is spike (albeit a small one) on two successive days - new cases are higher than recoveries, 996 yesterday and 645 the day before. The seven day average of active cases is still negative (-1600). Let us hope with the vaccine drive the trend is reversed.
Added later:
Past three days increase in active cases: 645,996,2070. Is the trend in active cases reversing? Worrisome.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Uttam »

Is there already heard immunity in India? I don't know the answer but here is a publication that seems to suggest that infections were a lot more than caught.

Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Karnataka, India

By: Manoj Mohanan, PhD1; Anup Malani, PhD2; Kaushik Krishnan, PhD3; Anu Acharya, MS4
Author Affiliations Article Information
1Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
2Law School, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois
3Center for Monitoring Indian Economy, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
4Mapmygenome, Hyderabad, Telangana, India
JAMA. Published online February 4, 2021. doi:10.1001/jama.2021.0332
The adjusted seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 across Karnataka was 46.7%, suggesting approximately 31.5 million residents were infected, far greater than the 327 076 cases reported by August 29, 2020.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Vayutuvan »

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/02 ... risk-death
The world’s largest trial of COVID-19 drugs has produced more good news: The anti-inflammatory drug tocilizumab cut the death risk of people hospitalized with the disease, reduced their need for a mechanical ventilator, and shortened time spent in the hospital, investigators of the United Kingdom’s Recovery trial announced today at a press conference. A preprint about the data has been published on medRxiv.

“This is an incredibly significant result,” says Athimalaipet Ramanan, a rheumatologist at the University of Bristol who was not involved in the study but sits on the steering committee of a tocilizumab trial in India. “This is probably only the second drug that has an impact on mortality,” he says, after the steroid dexamethasone. If the data pan out, it’s “fantastic news,” adds Jason Pogue, a pharmacist at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, and president of the Society of Infectious Diseases Pharmacists. “I think this will (and I think it should) lead to more widespread use in the United States,” Pogue wrote in an email.

But tocilizumab is about 100 times more expensive than dexamethasone, raising questions once again about how to make sure populations across the world can benefit from scientific progress against COVID-19.
...
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vimal »

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2AG08P

South Africa to return AstraZeneca vaccine. Seems like J&J bribed them to purchase expensive vaccine.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by saip »

^^^Not sure of that. Astra Zaneca vaccine needs TWO doses and appear to cost more than the J&J Vaccine which is a One dose vaccine.

Link
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

It's worth doing some research into the SA case instead of speculating:
South Africa scraps AstraZeneca, pivots to Johnson & Johnson vaccine
The country paused its rollout of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine after preliminary trial data showed it offered minimal protection against mild to moderate illness caused by the variant of the virus that emerged in South Africa last year.
SA is fighting a local variant that's particularly virulent and unlike the British strain, the vaccine isn't as effective on it. In fact, Australia just canceled their cricket tour to South Africa recently because of this.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

First world problems...but also an indication of why more vaccines are needed.

These Doctors Want to Pick Their Covid-19 Vaccine, Fearing Reactions, Lower Efficacy
Health-worker unions in Europe say thousands of their members refuse to take one of the three Covid-19 vaccines available in the region because of concerns over efficacy and reports of side effects
French President Emmanuel Macron said last month that the shot was “quasi-ineffective” for people over 65.
Many health professionals say they are on the front line of the fight against the pandemic and should be given access to mRNA vaccines. Many health professionals say they are on the front line of the fight against the pandemic and should be given access to mRNA vaccines.
The fading trust in the AstraZeneca vaccine marks a sharp turn from the uproar that met the company earlier this year when it abruptly cut in half the number of doses it planned to deliver to EU member states in the first half of the year because of manufacturing issues.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sudarshan »

Active case count has been going up in India for several days now. The overall numbers are small (still less than 1.5 lakhs), but the trend is worrisome.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Shameek »

vera_k wrote:First world problems...but also an indication of why more vaccines are needed.
Based on anecdotal reports from family and friends, this is also happening in India. There is a fair set of doctors/healthcare workers that are wary of or downright refuse to take the vaccine. When they speak to their families or patients, it could spread the fear further.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

Yes. Some are not comfortable with using the AZ vaccine. I hope Covaxin is able to publish data soon. Seems to be more trust on Covaxin as its based on older tech.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by V_Raman »

I am waiting for Covaxin. Given the mutations - that might be humanity's best hope. After the unncessary comments by Serum Institute head - I hope/wish he is forced to manufacture Covaxin to increase production...
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by IndraD »

SA variant seems to be big problem. An experimental study in lab claims Pfizer vaccinated immunity is not effective on SA variant in particular. In France a man who recovered from covid in August is seriously ill with SA variant.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by darshan »

This Baba just doesn't give up. Go back to Ashram. No such thing as emergency use authorization to prevent deaths unless you're a pharma company. It may come handy for another chinese virus. Would I have really lost anything more than money if I had taken it and it didn't work? After all people were willing to embrace bankruptcy to obtain any unproven concoction last year.

It would be interesting to hear from learned people here about what was presented by Baba's group in their study.
Patanjali’s Coronil gets Ayush Ministry certification, Baba Ramdev releases research on ‘first evidence-based Ayurvedic medicine against COVID’
https://www.opindia.com/2021/02/patanja ... ine-covid/
Baba Ramdev on Friday released a scientific research paper on the first evidence-based medicine for COVID-19 by Patanjali Ayurved. According to Baba Ramdev, Patanjali’s Coronil Tablet, a medicine to fight off the coronavirus has received a certification from the Ayush Ministry as per the WHO format. The announcement was made in a press conference which was also attended by Union Ministers Dr Harsh Vardhan and Nitin Gadkari.
....
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Pace of vaccinations is picking up in India now. Was 9.42 million yesterday, and now up to 10.2 million today, up almost 700K shots. The slope of our cumulative vaccinations has been curving up, and this latest data just moves it further away from the linear 400-500K per day it was reporting for the first month. Hopefully the momentum will increase to 1M a day shortly.
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Post by vijayk »

Image
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Zynda »

So a doc I know in a reputed hospital in BLR said that as of Thu evening, they were still awaiting the vaccine doses for the booster shot. Also the same doc said that vaccine distribution channels were not completely thought through. Probably GoI did not order enough refrigerated trucks but few places are not receiving additional vaccine doses to scale up the vaccinations. Essentially, vaccine doses are still sitting at SII and other facilities unable to reach vaccination centers. Hence the vaccination export spree...instead of letting the vaccines sitting, GoI thought why not export vaccines and earn diplomatic capital as well as some moolah :)

Hopefully, yesterdays uptick in vaccination numbers is start of a trend.
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