2021 Five State Elections

[Santosh]

chup chap, kamal chaap
...
The bengali muslim wet dream of a west bangladesh is finally out in the open and that old and ever present genie just will not go back into the communal bottle again

Yes, the anti-CAA demostrations in Bengal were scary to watch. Hopefully Bengalis will remember what they went through and what future will look like under 5 more years of jihadi bibi. If the security apparatus holds up during elections and if elections are free without intimidation then
BJP has a chance. Most opinion polls are giving BJP between 100 and 115 seats with vote percent of 35-38%. TMC is in 40-43%. Chup chap kamal chaap will tilt the scale in favor of BJP.

Here's the tally from wiki

Date published Polling agency AITC+ BJP+ LF + INC Others Lead

8 March 2021 Abp News - CNX[49] 154-164 102-112 22-30 01-03 42-62
8 March 2021 Times Now - C Voter 146-162 99-115 29-37 0 31-63
8 March 2021 People's Pulse[51] 70-121 160-207 12-24 0 39-137
27 Feb 2021 ABP News - C Voter 148-164 92-108 31-39 1-5 40-72
15 Feb 2021 ABP News - CNX 146-156 113-121 20-28 1-3 25-43
18 Jan 2021 ABP News - CVoter 158 102 30 4 56
16 June 2020 ABP Group - CNX 155-163 97-105 22-30 6-10 50-66

[Kati]

West Bengal Election 2021: Opinion Poll

The Trinamool Congress is predicted to get 42.2 per cent vote share and 157 seats, 57 less than what it had got in 2016. The BJP, the key challenger to TMC, is expected to get 37.5 per cent vote share and 107 seats, up by 104 seats from 2016, when it had got just 3. In the previous assembly elections, the saffron party’s vote share was just 10.16 per cent whereas the TMC had the largest vote share of nearly 45 per cent (44.91 to be precise).

The Third Front of Congress and Left is predicted to get just 33 seats, down by 43 than what it had got in 2016.

West Bengal election is the biggest toss up in the whole world right now.

Even though the local newspapers are showing Mumtazbanoo's party is ahead of BJP by 5% voteshare, we need to keep in mind that the local media has been bought up by her party through coercion (an open secret). Nearly half of the 294 seats will be decided by a razor thin margin of less than 1% vote, and this would never get caught in opinion polls. Moreover, voters are extremely tight-lipped or evasive about their decision. However, whichever way I turn and talk to people I get the feeling that Hindu voters are following their Assam counterpart. They are extremely upset about Mumtazbanoo's pandering to the Peacefools. She understand sit very well, and hence this time her part has given less tickets to the peacefools, and she herself is showing her Hinduness by uttering Hindu religious texts at rallies. (There was a funny situation yesterday: at Nandigram, - the potential Waterloo for Mumtazbanoo, she recited lines from Sri Chandi, but very soon caught by the media showing that she uttered wrong words.)
Today she did a drama-baazi by claiming that BJP supporters pushed and shoved her... thereby trying to get sympathy vote.

[chetak]

West Bengal Election 2021: Opinion Poll

West Bengal election is the biggest toss up in the whole world right now.

Even though the local newspapers are showing Mumtazbanoo's party is ahead of BJP by 5% voteshare, we need to keep in mind that the local media has been bought up by her party through coercion (an open secret). Nearly half of the 294 seats will be decided by a razor thin margin of less than 1% vote, and this would never get caught in opinion polls. Moreover, voters are extremely tight-lipped or evasive about their decision. However, whichever way I turn and talk to people I get the feeling that Hindu voters are following their Assam counterpart. They are extremely upset about Mumtazbanoo's pandering to the Peacefools. She understand sit very well, and hence this time her part has given less tickets to the peacefools, and she herself is showing her Hinduness by uttering Hindu religious texts at rallies. (There was a funny situation yesterday: at Nandigram, - the potential Waterloo for Mumtazbanoo, she recited lines from Sri Chandi, but very soon caught by the media showing that she uttered wrong words.)
Today she did a drama-baazi by claiming that BJP supporters pushed and shoved her... thereby trying to get sympathy vote.

the oh so, strategically exposed bandaged leg

In the end, is this a take on mumtaz bano or her pathetic government or the bengal state that she "led", right into the ground.

[chetak]

ANI@ANI · 18h

This is 'siyasi pakhand' to gain sympathy. Before polls, she (Mamata Banerjee) planned this 'nautanki' after sensing difficulties in Nandigram. Not just CM, she is Police Mantri' too. Can you believe that there was no Police with Police Mantri?: Congress' Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury

[AshishA]

In these days, no one gives any sympathy vote. So Mamta might be harming her election chances through this. But she is occupying the TV time which is not good for BJP. BJP should come up with something more like another PM rally or corruption expose etc to get back some TV time again.

[arshyam]

Nandigram incident that left Mamata injured was ‘accident, not attack’: Police report to EC - Madhuparna Das, The Print on 11 March, 2021 2:45 pm IST

Kolkata: The incident in Nandigram that resulted in an injury to West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee Wednesday was an accident, according to preliminary police findings submitted to the Election Commission Thursday.

The incident was “not an attack”, says the report, which has been accessed by ThePrint.

The report claims to have arrived at its conclusion via video footage and accounts of local police and eyewitnesses, including Trinamool Congress members. It says the chief minister was hurt when her car, while maneuvering through a crowded bazaar area, hit a small iron pillar.

Banerjee, who enjoys a Z+ security cover (highest level), was waving at people with her car door open. She hurt her feet as the car door was slammed shut after hitting the pillar on the narrow street, the report states.

Banerjee had alleged Wednesday evening that she was attacked by four-five men who pushed her, and banged on the door of her car, causing injuries to her. The BJP had dismissed the episode as “drama”.

The Nandigram incident came hours after the state DGP was moved out on the orders of the Election Commission (EC), and a successor sent in. The Trinamool Congress has described the series of events — from the DGP’s removal to the Nandigram episode — as part of a “well-thought-out plan”.

A Trinamool Congress delegation led by Rajya Sabha MP Derek O’Brien has filed a complaint with the EC, calling the incident a “deep-rooted conspiracy” to kill Banerjee.

Meanwhile, police in the Purba Medinipur district have registered a case in the matter following a complaint lodged by TMC leader Sheikh Sufian. The FIR invokes IPC sections 341 (punishment for wrongful restraint) and 323 (punishment for voluntarily causing hurt) against unknown persons.

Police sources told ThePrint that the EC has ordered a high-level investigation into the incident.

[shaun]

Nandigram incident that left Mamata injured was ‘accident, not attack’: Police report to EC - Madhuparna Das, The Print on 11 March, 2021 2:45 pm IST

Kolkata: The incident in Nandigram that resulted in an injury to West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee Wednesday was an accident, according to preliminary police findings submitted to the Election Commission Thursday.

The incident was “not an attack”, says the report, which has been accessed by ThePrint.

The report claims to have arrived at its conclusion via video footage and accounts of local police and eyewitnesses, including Trinamool Congress members. It says the chief minister was hurt when her car, while maneuvering through a crowded bazaar area, hit a small iron pillar.

Banerjee, who enjoys a Z+ security cover (highest level), was waving at people with her car door open. She hurt her feet as the car door was slammed shut after hitting the pillar on the narrow street, the report states.

Banerjee had alleged Wednesday evening that she was attacked by four-five men who pushed her, and banged on the door of her car, causing injuries to her. The BJP had dismissed the episode as “drama”.

The Nandigram incident came hours after the state DGP was moved out on the orders of the Election Commission (EC), and a successor sent in. The Trinamool Congress has described the series of events — from the DGP’s removal to the Nandigram episode — as part of a “well-thought-out plan”.

A Trinamool Congress delegation led by Rajya Sabha MP Derek O’Brien has filed a complaint with the EC, calling the incident a “deep-rooted conspiracy” to kill Banerjee.

Meanwhile, police in the Purba Medinipur district have registered a case in the matter following a complaint lodged by TMC leader Sheikh Sufian. The FIR invokes IPC sections 341 (punishment for wrongful restraint) and 323 (punishment for voluntarily causing hurt) against unknown persons.

Police sources told ThePrint that the EC has ordered a high-level investigation into the incident.

I remember something "similar "happened with her indigo flight which was on circuit above kolkata airspace .

[Yagnasri]

Top class drama queen. People will not be so easily fooled this time.

[Kati]

Going by the WA forwards and memes, this dramabaazi was a total flop. People are not giving two hoots to Mumtaaz's allegation that four-five people attacked her and vanished suddenly in spite of her Z-category security. Apparently this dramabaazi was PK's idea which he played similarly for Jagan in AP election to get some voters' sympathy.

[Ambar]

Dilli ka malik aka Shri Kejriwalji is the master of such drama. After his paid slap paid dividends in 2014, he is now superstitious where no pre-election rally is complete without him getting slapped. Momta didi is now in a cast (most likely a fake one and hence the 128 kms trip to a hospital from Nandigram ), if she returns to campaigning then the whole "BJP broke my leg" sham falls apart and if she doesn't return to campaigning then she'll only be jeopardizing her chances more.

[vijayk]

PK pulled such drama for Jagan also during AP election where he was stabbed in the airport

[Punjabi]

Top class drama queen. People will not be so easily fooled this time.

Shatir Lady she is...no doubt! I hope voters are not fooled by this bechari Mumtaazbaano...

[RajD]

https://twitter.com/5Forty3/status/1370 ... 74466?s=19

There is a sense of desperation among TMC workers in the ground... Many are wondering "What if..." they are even afraid to contemplate a life after defeat!

Generally, cadre behaviour in the days before election begins is a good barometer of ground situation

[Ashokk]

Former BJP leader Yashwant Sinha joins Trinamool

BJP during Atal Ji's time believed in consensus but today's government believes in crushing & conquering. Akalis, BJD have left the BJP. Today, who is standing with BJP? The tipping point was the attack on Mamata Ji in Nandigram. It was the moment of decision to join TMC and support Mamata Ji
Yashwant Sinha, TMC

[Yagnasri]

What he did is to harm his own sons future in the BJP. That is all.

[Ambar]

He is a petty man who let his ego besmirch his past and his future (his son). Since 2014 when he found out that there was no Rajya Sabha seat coming his way nor a ready ministerial berth he started attacking his own party and Modi. His behavior and mental meltdown was similar to other aged former ministers from the Vajpayee era, the vestiges of the old Delhi durbar like Arun Shourie, Jaswant Singh, Madhu Kishwar and the venomous Su Swamy. Arun Shourie is too old and too sick at this time to harbor political ambitions or scheme vendetta , Madhu Kishwar is a lightweight and has more than once blotted her reputation by flying off the handle on social media in her drunken stupor and Jaswant Singh is dead. That leaves us with Su Swamy who anyday may switch his alliance to TMC or whoever will help him get reelected to Rajya Sabha. Good thing is elections are conducted on the ground and not on Twitter, so the chance of these octogenarians getting elected is next to none.

In other news Rakesh Tikait, the part time farmers leader and full time politician is criss-crossing Bengal holding rallies asking people to not to vote for BJP because BJP has take away the MSP from farmers, little does the knucklehead know that Bengal has one of the worst records in MSP procurement in the country.

[fanne]

https://twitter.com/5Forty3/status/1370 ... 66627?s=20

There are 3 grades of anti-incumbencies in India

1] Anti-incumbency against governance/policies
2] Anti-incumbency against governments; CM/PM et al.
3] Local anti-incumbency against sitting MPs/MLAs

Bengal is in the 4th grade; grassroots level anger against the system!

[Yagnasri]

In other news Rakesh Tikait, the part time farmers leader and full time politician is criss-crossing Bengal holding rallies asking people to not to vote for BJP because BJP has take away the MSP from farmers, little does the knucklehead know that Bengal has one of the worst records in MSP procurement in the country.

It is not about farmers. It is about money. One can be sure that TMC paid them well to come and hold rallies against BJP. TMC is facing a hard fight and trying very trick to win.

[Arima]

It is not about farmers. It is about money. One can be sure that TMC paid them well to come and hold rallies against BJP. TMC is facing a hard fight and trying very trick to win.

If BJP can win Bengal it will be massive boost to enact uniform civil code, enforcement of NRC since fake narrative from peacefuls can be smashed and controlled. Bengal is last major strong hold of peace-nicks.

[Kati]

As of today, the WB situation is still total toss up.

There is absolutely no way to say which side, - TMC or BJP, has the edge.

ED and CBI are going too slow to run their money laundering investigation against Mumtaaz Banoo's nephew and his wife.

One very important aspect, which not sure is happening or not, is to seal the Indo-Bangla border, and undertake random checking of people's credentials. This actually worked wonder, and caused the fall of Left-Front in Tripura. Three days before the election, central forces suddenly
sealed the Indo-Bangla boder there without giving any prior hint.

A lot of illegal migrants have acquired forged documents. This is the time to send a chill down their spine by some means so that
they don't crawl out of the woods to cast their illegal votes. Also, a week before the election (in phased manner) many illegal migrants
who gotten hold of forged documents, and found jobs as faraway places like Mumbai, Chennai, Kochi, etc return home to cast their vote.
Their train tickets are paid by TMC to encourage them to come during the election. Some measures need to be taken to check their credentials
to discourage their travel.

[KL Dubey]

Former BJP leader Yashwant Sinha joins Trinamool

BJP during Atal Ji's time believed in consensus but today's government believes in crushing & conquering. Akalis, BJD have left the BJP. Today, who is standing with BJP? The tipping point was the attack on Mamata Ji in Nandigram. It was the moment of decision to join TMC and support Mamata Ji
Yashwant Sinha, TMC

Phir to ho gayi TMC ki jeet....

Again, I wonder why these old men like Shourie, Jaswant, Yashwant et al insist on sullying their own record in their sunset years and be remembered as cantankerous old codgers. At least people like Advani and MM Joshi retired (relatively) quietly.

[Sachin]

Again, I wonder why these old men like Shourie, Jaswant, Yashwant et al insist on sullying their own record in their sunset years and be remembered as cantankerous old codgers

I guess this is one sad aspect of 'leadership', i.e not knowing when to give up. There was another politician - the wily fox K. Karunakaran of the INC from KL. He was known for his astuteness and the 'go getter' attitude. Yet he had to make a very sad exit from politics. Lost elections, formed another party which also did not go well and both his children did not rise up much in the INC of KL (which by then was firmly under X'ian control). Advani too had become cantankerous and sulking, with main stream media edging him on. MM Joshi seems to have actually 'faded out' gracefully.

[SRajesh]

Again, I wonder why these old men like Shourie, Jaswant, Yashwant et al insist on sullying their own record in their sunset years and be remembered as cantankerous old codgers

I guess this is one sad aspect of 'leadership', i.e not knowing when to give up. There was another politician - the wily fox K. Karunakaran of the INC from KL. He was known for his astuteness and the 'go getter' attitude. Yet he had to make a very sad exit from politics. Lost elections, formed another party which also did not go well and both his children did not rise up much in the INC of KL (which by then was firmly under X'ian control). Advani too had become cantankerous and sulking, with main stream media edging him on. MM Joshi seems to have actually 'faded out' gracefully.

Sachinji
I think the major difference in their attitude is 'Sangh' or ''RSS' background.
Sangh discipline and the role of 'Vanaprsathashrama' is probably well inculcated in the RSS??? so they take the retirement gracefully.
But SJY were probably brought in by Vajpayeeji for smooth running of government given that he had a hotchpotch of parties to carry with !!

[chetak]

Our democracy is still vibrant, despite the centuries of BIF dravidian morons trying to upset the civilizational applecart.

here is an election meme from TN

[chetak]

mumtaz bano is taking a beating from yogi

बंगाल की ही धरती पर जन्मे स्वामी विवेकानंद जी ने वैश्विक मंच पर कहा था कि 'गर्व से कहो, हम हिन्दू हैं।'

via@myogiadityanath

[vijayk]

TN feedback:

BJP is taking a beating due to GST (causing a lot of small scale companies to be closed), high petrol/LPG gas price hike.

Can someone on the ground report how true this is? If so, why is Nirmalaji is not concerned at all about the impact?

[Kati]

Kolkata's Burrabazar's "faatka" ("satta") market's latest rumor:

TMC = 98
NDA = 150


In Nandigram constituency:

Mamata = Rs.2 for Rs. 1 bet
Shubhendu = Rs. 1.80 for Rs. 1 bet

[ramana]

By 2 May it will be NDA 200

Just wait and watch.

[V_Raman]

In TN

Pandey speech 3 days ago - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zj1G455Cjm8 - this is in tamil. so adding salient points below

- all parties now have things in the manifesto for hindus - which is a huge change especially for DMK and we hindus should continue to be the way we are and kudos to Modi for enabling that.
- DMK does not think it will be an easy win. But they still think they will scrape through.
- There is no anti-incumbency per se as EPS survived and took control of the party. People watched the show and judge only for the last 2 years. There are impressed by how things are being handled by him. especially the sasikala episode.
- How COVID was handled - goodwill. They are now thinking he is a capable CM.
- But that does not mean ADMK will win. His main concern is too much vote splitting for ADMK - the Dinakaran/Vijaykanth combo is a concern. While DMK votebank is solid.
- His conclusion is advantage DMK
- His call to voters - please vote based who you think is a capable CM - EPS/Stalin/Seeman/Kamal/Dinakaran - indirectly prodding to avoid vote splitting for ADMK

chatting with my father-in-law in chennai - if Mukkulathor vote comes to ADMK - the vote bank of AMMK - they win.

[Mukhi]

By 2 May it will be NDA 200

Just wait and watch.

Then Methai equivalent of your weight will be distributed at the next BR meet.

U have to be present though

[KL Dubey]

WB update from Dr. BB:

https://twitter.com/5Forty3/status/1370614433190350850

Excuse me for raising expectations in an already surcharged environment.

It is looking increasingly like Uttar Pradesh 2017!

From various replies on his twitter account, it seems to me he signed some kind of contract with BJP and his team is working for the party.

Assuming WB and AS turn/stay saffron in May, this will set up the entire "northern belt" from JK to AR for NDA sweep in LS 2024...about 180-190 seats. Current number from LS 2019 is 174.

The "central belt" from RJ/GJ to OR will again yield 100-110 seats. Current number is 108.

So NDA will only need to look to "the south" (which includes MH) to top up the majority numbers and ensure BJP is 272+ on its own...with TG BJP coming on strong and TN NDA to certainly do better than LS 2019, one would expect about 50 seats from the south. Additionally if the MVA disintegrates by 2024, then it could be 70 seats from the south. Current number is 56 (74 if one includes the Sh!t Sena seats).

[sudarshan]

Then Methai equivalent of your weight will be distributed at the next BR meet.

U have to be present though

And also gain weight.

[ramana]

One request we know Bengal elections start from next week and go through 8 phases. Results on 2nd May. Do we know when the other states go to the polls?

The Election Commission announced the dates for elections to the state assemblies of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Puducherry, and West Bengal.

While each state has its own dates of polling, the counting of all votes would be held on 2 May

The schedule for elections is as follows.

West Bengal

Phases: Eight

Polling: 27 March-29 April

Assam

Phases: Three

Polling: 27 March-6 April

Tamil Nadu

Phases: One

Polling: 6 April

Kerala

Phases: One

Polling: 6 April

Puducherry

Phases: One

Polling: 6 April

Four of the Five states will be over by 6 April.

[chetak]

[Mukesh.Kumar]

By 2 May it will be NDA 200

Just wait and watch.

Then Methai equivalent of your weight will be distributed at the next BR meet.

U have to be present though

Mukhi if you promised "Hilsa" equivalent of weight then there would definitely have been a landslide victory.

[Mukhi]

^Done. What ever it takes to get NaMo cross Majority Mark

[ramana]

Kolkata's Burrabazar's "faatka" ("satta") market's latest rumor:

TMC = 98
NDA = 150


In Nandigram constituency:

Mamata = Rs.2 for Rs. 1 bet
Shubhendu = Rs. 1.80 for Rs. 1 bet

Kati, please post daily updates as we don't have access.

[Kati]

What the lofty Reds couldn't do it in 34 years, and TMC avoided to address in 10 years, has been done by BJP. It has fielded a candidate from the downtrodden.
Its candidate Ms. Kalita Majhi has created a sensation. She is a domestic help, and tries to make her ends meet by working in three other households.

https://news.abplive.com/news/india/wes ... at-1449252

[SRajesh]

Cross posting from 2021 strategic page
https://theprint.in/india/grievous-blow ... ty/625227/
I was wondering why/when/where a new controversy would be created.
Here we go Mehta's resignation has been given all the necessary 'SFDR' tech to drag it until the five state election and ??maybe preparing for 'Boris' visit!!
Expect another rounds chest beating and rhona-dhona quoting Swedish report yada-yada

[ramana]

Pratap Bhanu Mehta is a non-entity in the five state elections. He is just a classy Couptaji.
Ashoka uty has a lot of scams with Nidhi Raxdan Harward lineage.