2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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chanakya_neeti
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chanakya_neeti »

Getting interesting!

ANIL DESHMUKH (@AnilDeshmukhNCP) Tweeted:
The former Commissioner of Police, Parambir Singh has made false allegations in order to save himself as the involvement of Sachin Waze in Mukesh Ambani & Mansukh Hiren’s case is becoming clearer from the investigation carried out so far & threads are leading to Mr. Singh as well https://twitter.com/AnilDeshmukhNCP/sta ... 43360?s=20
chetak
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

chanakya_neeti wrote:Getting interesting!

ANIL DESHMUKH (@AnilDeshmukhNCP) Tweeted:
The former Commissioner of Police, Parambir Singh has made false allegations in order to save himself as the involvement of Sachin Waze in Mukesh Ambani & Mansukh Hiren’s case is becoming clearer from the investigation carried out so far & threads are leading to Mr. Singh as well https://twitter.com/AnilDeshmukhNCP/sta ... 43360?s=20
singh is too smart to make "false allegations" without incontrovertible proof.

singh wasn't born yesterday and certainly, he is a survivor.

But now he is like Icarus, the dope who flew too close to the sun and it is a long, long way down

but his survival now depends very much on fadnavis and the BJP and not on the riff raff he has been dealing with

If you stay in a house filled with poisonous snakes, then access to anti venom is mandatory for survival

"Khela Hobe (game on)"
chetak
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

'Impartial investigation should be conducted …

How can Home Minister Anil Deshmukh lead this probe?', asks Devendra Fadnavis.
AshishA
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by AshishA »

We must all remember that it is through by Bhagwan's intervention that we are currently seeing the unraveling of the Maha Vasuli Aghadi. If on the day Mansukh Hiren was killed and his body disposed off during high tide, all of these would never have seen the light of the day. The crooked cops vaze and parambir along with their political masters would have continued all this for a very long time. And they would have gotten away with it.

Now I believe Home Minister would not have done all this without the knowledge of CM. The investigation would eventually reach CM's office. And then he might be asked to resign? So I think right now we are heading towards BJP govt. Ofc this is just one of the many possibilities.

Btw another body was found from the same place Mansukh Hiren's body was found.
chetak
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

can khujliwal be far behind when vultures are gathering for the feast


this tweet is from an aapi paapi


Image
Hari Seldon
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Hari Seldon »

>>Btw another body was found from the same place Mansukh Hiren's body was found.
Seems like a fav dumping spot by semi-state actors for disappeared beepuls. Sheesh.

>>Now I believe Home Minister would not have done all this without the knowledge of CM.
Why believe so? HM is an NCP man and CM is a sh1t-sainik. Heck, Pawar non-negotiably demanded HM post during MVA formation itself. Quite possible Cm-HM co-ordination was less than stellar. Less likely but possible is that NCP may want UT to step aside from CM gaddi and AjitP to take over, perhaps?

>> If on the day Mansukh Hiren was killed and his body disposed off during high tide, all of these would never have seen the light of the day.
Collecting pennies before steamrollers? Eventually karma catches up. But I'm more inclined to believe that Vaze (and ParamBir chakra too, maybe?) were intentionally sloppy perhaps.
chetak
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Hari Seldon wrote:>>Btw another body was found from the same place Mansukh Hiren's body was found.
Seems like a fav dumping spot by semi-state actors for disappeared beepuls. Sheesh.

>>Now I believe Home Minister would not have done all this without the knowledge of CM.
Why believe so? HM is an NCP man and CM is a sh1t-sainik. Heck, Pawar non-negotiably demanded HM post during MVA formation itself. Quite possible Cm-HM co-ordination was less than stellar. Less likely but possible is that NCP may want UT to step aside from CM gaddi and AjitP to take over, perhaps?

>> If on the day Mansukh Hiren was killed and his body disposed off during high tide, all of these would never have seen the light of the day.
Collecting pennies before steamrollers? Eventually karma catches up. But I'm more inclined to believe that Vaze (and ParamBir chakra too, maybe?) were intentionally sloppy perhaps.
this blaze reaches the top echelons of the MVA.

no one would dare to grab 100cr per month without everyone knowing.

parambir was in one pocket and vaze in another and each has separate sponsors

just look at the stunned silence of the presstitutes.

that should tell you enough about how high the blaze has already reached

one would well to watch republic teevee tonight at 2100.

dornob will be in full cry
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by S_Madhukar »

The whole police command needs to be interrogated as well ... how many of them have been Yes sir guys and have not been caught... How is Vaze doing what he does without others in the know... obviously some of them have leaked this info to the opposition... truth is some of the cops found encounters and extortion to be a nice way of making money along with the politicos... no wonder they came croppers on 26/11. Could not aim a damn gun at the terrorists when all they learnt was other tricks of the trade ... most probably they will make the current HM a scapegoat else blame the CM and plan an escape before more truth comes out...
chetak
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

S_Madhukar wrote:The whole police command needs to be interrogated as well ... how many of them have been Yes sir guys and have not been caught... How is Vaze doing what he does without others in the know... obviously some of them have leaked this info to the opposition... truth is some of the cops found encounters and extortion to be a nice way of making money along with the politicos... no wonder they came croppers on 26/11. Could not aim a damn gun at the terrorists when all they learnt was other tricks of the trade ... most probably they will make the current HM a scapegoat else blame the CM and plan an escape before more truth comes out...
bandicoots cannot make scapegoats of jackals.

jackals hunt bandicoots

this time they have all entered the jungle without realizing that they are not the apex predators.
AshishA
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by AshishA »

chetak wrote: one would well to watch republic teevee tonight at 2100.

dornob will be in full cry
Today is Saturday. He doesn't do shows on Saturday. But I hope he makes a exception today.

Btw that Paapi lady has a point. These cops were discussion extortion like it was a everyday occurence and routine. And noticing the date and timing of the chats provided by Param Bir, I feel it was a last minute attempt to save his own skin.

Here's the full text of Param Bir's letter.
To,
The Hon'ble Chief Minister,
Maharashtra State,
Mumbai.

Respected Sir,

Re: Untruthful statements by the Hon'ble Home Minister, Maharashtra in relation to the transfer of Shri Param Bir Singh, IPS as Commandant General of Home Guards, Maharashtra State from the post of Commissioner of Police, Mumbai.

1. With all humility at my command and as a true citizen of the Nation who has stood by his oath as a Police Officer for 32 years, I urge you to take note of the below mentioned facts and stand by the Constitutional values that guide the actions of the high seat you occupy.

2. In deference to transfer order dated 17th March 2021 of the Home Department, Govt. of Maharashtra, I have taken charge of the office of the Commandant General of Home Guards, Maharashtra State on the very next date i.e. 18th March 2021. Prior thereto, I have handed over charge of the affairs of the office of the Commissioner of Police, Mumbai.

3. My transfer was effected under section 22N(2) of the Maharashtra Police Act, 1951 with the reason that my transfer was necessitated by administrative exigencies. I believe that the reason for the transfer noted by the Govt. in my file is to ensure a free and fair investigation in the Antilia incident.

4. On 25th February 2021, a case bearing no. 35/ 2021 was registered with the Gamdevi Police Station as a result of a car with explosives being found

at Altamount Road near Antilia, the residence of Shri Mukesh Ambani. The said case is thereafter being investigated by the ATS and the NIA. All necessary assistance had been rendered by my office and my officers for the conduct of a free and fair investigation by the ATS and the NIA into the Antilia incident.

5. Shri Anil Deshmukh, Hon’ble Home Minister, Maharashtra has stated in an interview conducted under the aegis of ‘Lokmat’ and extensively reported on 18th March 2021 that: (a) there were serious lapses committed at my office, by the Mumbai Police and me in the investigation of the Antilia incident; (b) my serious lapses are not pardonable; and, (c) my transfer is not on administrative grounds.

6. At one of the briefing sessions in the wake of the Antilia incident held in mid-March 2021 when I was called late evening at Varsha to brief you, I had pointed out several misdeeds and malpractices being indulged into by the Hon’ble Home Minister. I have similarly briefed the Hon’ble Deputy Chief Minister, Maharsahtra, the President of the Nationalist Congress Party, Shri Sharad Pawar and other senior Ministers also about the misdeeds and malpractices. On my briefings, I noticed that some of the Ministers were already aware about some aspects mentioned by me to them.

7. In the aforesaid context, Shri Sachin Vaze who was heading the Crime Intelligence Unit of the Crime Branch of the Mumbai Police was called by Shri Anil Deshmukh, Hon’ble Home Minister, Maharashtra to his official residence Dyaneshwar several times in last few months and repeatedly instructed to assist in collection of funds for the Hon’ble Home Minister. In and around mid-February and thereafter, the Hon’ble Home Minister had called Shri Vaze to his official residence. At that time, one or two staff members of the Hon’ble Home Minister including his Personal Secretary, Mr. Palande, were also present. The Hon’ble Home Minister expressed to Shri Vaze that he had a target to accumulate Rs. 100 crores a month. For achieving the aforesaid target, the Hon’ble Home Minsiter told Shri Vaze that there are about 1,750 bars, restaurants and other establishments in Mumbai and if a sum of Rs. 2-3 lakhs each was collected from each of them, a monthly collection of Rs. 40-50 crores was achievable. The Hon’ble Home Minister added that the rest of the collection could be made from other sources.

8. Shri Vaze came to my office the same day and informed me of the above. I was shocked with the above discussion and was mulling over how to deal with the situation.

9. A few days later, Shri Sanjay Patil, ACP, Social Service Branch, was called by the Hon’ble Home Minister at his official residence to hold discussions about the hookah parlours in Mumbai. The meeting was attended by other officers and Shri Palande, Personal Secretary to the Hon’ble Home Minister. Two days later, Shri Patil along with DCP Bhujbal were called at the official residence of the Hon’ble Home Minister for a meeting. While ACP Patil and DCP Bhujbal were made to wait outside the Hon’ble Home Minister’s cabin, Mr. Palande went inside the chamber of the Hon’ble Home Minister and after coming out took ACP Patil and DCP Bhujbal on the side. Mr. Palande informed ACP Patil that the Hon’ble Home Minister was targeting a collection of Rs. 40-50 crores which was possible through an approximate 1,750 bars, restaurants and establishments operating in Mumbai. I was informed by ACP Patil about the demand to make collections for the Hon’ble Home Minister.

10.The aforesaid meeting at the official residence of the Hon’ble Home Minister with Shri Patil and Shri Bhujbal occurred on 4th March 2021 as informed to me by Shri Patil. In order to remind myself about the exact conversation that I had with ACP Patil, I messaged ACP Patil on 16th March 2021. Shri Patil has reconfirmed the aforesaid date and details to me on message on 16th March 2021 & 19th March 2021 and I am reproducing the text of my messages with ACP Patil:

Me (16th March 2021, 4:59 pm): Patil how many bars and other establishments did HM sir and Palande mention to you when you had met them in Feb . And what was total expected collection they mentioned.

Me (16th March 2021, 5:00 pm): Urgent please.

ACP Patil (16th March 2021, 5:18 pm): 1750 bars & other establishments in Mumbai. Per establishment Rs three lakhs. Total collection Rs 50 crore per month approximately as per their information.

ACP Patil (16th March 2021, 5:23 pm): Mr Palande mentioned before DCP Bhujbal Enforcement on 4th March.

Me (16th March 2021, 5:25 pm): And when did you meet HM sir before that.

ACP Patil (16th March 2021, 5:26 pm): Before 4 days for Hukka briefing.

Me (16th March 2021, 5:27 pm): And what is date of Waze’s meeting HM sir.

ACP Patil (16th March 2021, 5:33 pm): Sir I don’t remind the exact date.

Me (16th March 2021, 7:40 pm): You said it was a few days before your meeting?

ACP Patil (16th March 2021, 8:33 pm): Yes sir, but it is in end of February

Me (19th March 2021, 8:02 pm): Patil I want some more information.

Me (19th March 2021, 8:02 pm): Did Waze meet you after he met HM sir.

ACP Patil (19th March 2021, 8:53 pm): Yes sir, Waze met me after his meeting with HM sir.

Me (19th March 2021, 9:01 pm): Did he tell you anything why HM sir had called him.

ACP Patil (19th March 2021, 9:12 pm): The purpose of meeting was, he told me that, 1750 establishment in Mumbai, he should collect rs 3 lakh per establishment for him also, which will be around 40 to 50 cr.

Me (19th March 2021, 9:13 pm): Oh. This was same as what HM sir told you.

ACP Patil (19th March 2021, 9:15 pm): On 4 th March , his PS Palande told me the same.

Me (19th March 2021, 9:16 pm): Oh yes. You met Palande on 4th.

ACP Patil (19th March 2021, 9:17 pm): Yes sir, I was called.

11.After the meeting of Shri Vaze with the Hon’ble Home Minister, he had discussed the instructions of the Hon’ble Home Minister with Shri Patil and both of them had approached me with their predicaments.

12.The Hon’ble Home Minister has as a regular practice been repeatedly calling my officers and giving them instructions in respect of the course to be followed by them in performance of their official duties. The Hon’ble Home Minister has been calling my officers at his official residence bypassing me and other superior officers of the Police Department to whom those respective Police Officers report to. The Hon’ble Home Minster has been instructing them to carry out official assignments and collection schemes including financial transactions as per his instructions based on his expectations and targets to collect money. These corrupt malpractices have been brought to my notice by my officers.

13.In the present context, I may add that late Shri Mohan Delkar, Member of Parliament, Dadra & Nagar Haveli was found dead at Hotel Sea Green on 22nd February 2021. The Marine Drive Police Station recorded ADR No. 5/21 in relation to the suicide. A suicide note was found in the course of investigation. The said suicide note blamed senior officials of Dadra & Nagar Haveli and the trouble inflicted by them on Shri Delkar being the cause of suicide. An appropriate investigation was being undertaken by the Marine Drive Police Department in the said ADR.

14.However, from day one, the Hon’ble Home Minister desired a case of abetment of suicide to be registered at Mumbai. My professional view after seeking appropriate legal advice was that while the suicide had occurred in Mumbai, all the alleged acts of abetment had taken place in Dadra & Nagar Haveli. Thus, the abetment of suicide, if any, was required to be investigated by the Police at Dadra & Nagar Haveli who would have jurisdiction in that regard. You will recollect that in a briefing held at Varsha soon after the incident in the presence of a Hon’ble Minister and several other officials, after I drew attention of all concerned about my view, there was general agreement that the alleged acts of abetment could only be investigated by the Police at Dadra & Nagar Haveli.

15.Dutybound to do so, I held to my professional view as advised by legal experts. The Hon’ble Home Minister kept insisting otherwise despite having been informed by me about the opinion of legal experts on this issue. Due to my resistance, the Hon’ble Home Minister was unhappy with me as the political mileage desired to be derived from the registration of the abetment of suicide case in Mumbai in the death of Shri Mohan Delkar, Member of Parliament against senior officials of Dadra & Nagar Haveli was not being achieved.

16.Despite being fully aware of the opinion of the legal experts, the general opinion and the reasons behind it, the Hon’ble Home Minister announced the setting up of a Special Investigation Team (SIT) and registration of an FIR into the alleged case of abetment of suicide of late Shri Mohan Delkar, Member of Parliament, Dadra & Nagar Haveli, on the floor of the Maharashtra Assembly on 9th March 2021.

17.It has been my experience during the last more than one year as Commissioner of Police, Mumbai that the Hon’ble Home Minister has on numerous occasions called several officers from the Mumbai Police to his official residence at Dyaneshwar for giving instructions to adopt a specific course of action in police investigations. These acts of political interference are illegal & unconstitutional and Courts in our country including the Hon’ble Supreme Court of India have in the past come down heavily on such acts of interference in police investigations. In the event of my expressing reservations against the interference from the Hon’ble Home Minister and resistance from me in that regard, the Hon’ble Home Minister has found my reservations and resistance undesirable.

18.I may humbly submit that I take full responsibility of my police force. However, the instances of interference make it clear that the responsibility of wrongdoings may lie somewhere else at the door of the wrongdoers.

19.On a collective appraisal of events that have transpired and what is being pointed out by me makes it clear that I have been made a scapegoat to divert attention from the actual wrongdoers.

20.It is not out of place to mention that there is no iota of material or evidence far from proof found against me or even imputed against me. Except for conjectures, surmises and pure speculation, no detail of any sort against me has been noticed by anybody. The call records and phone data of Shri Sachin Vaze be examined to ascertain the truth of the allegations qua me and for the truth to emerge insofar as his association with political functionaries is concerned.

21.In these circumstances, the assertions of the Hon’ble Home Minister to the effect that my transfer is not for administrative or routine reasons, I have conducted serious lapses and the serious lapses in the investigation committed by me are unpardonable are all statements contrary to the record and seem to be for extraneous and vindictive reasons.

22.As a civil servant serving the Nation & the State for more than 32 years, the people of Mumbai and the Department of Police, I have been recipient of prestigious awards like Khadtar Seva Medal Naxalite Area, DGP’s Insignia 2004, Special Service Medal 2006 and Police Medal for Meritorious Services.

23.I have humbly apprised you of the true picture in order to place before you for consideration and corrective action, being fully cognizant to the retaliation that is likely against me for placing the true picture on record.

Sincerely yours,

Param Bir Singh I.P.S. Commandant General of Home Guards, Maharashtra State

Copy submitted to:

1. The Hon’ble Deputy Chief Minister Government of Maharashtra Mumbai

2. The Additional Chief Secretary, Home Department Government of Maharashtra Mumbai

3. The Principal Secretary to the Hon’ble Governor State of Maharashtra Mumbai
Tanaji
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Tanaji »

Sachin Vaze will soon be suicided, he is too valuable to be left living. It is interesting Pawars name is once again linked to this.. there used to be rumblings of Dawood and Pawar many years back but as usual Pawar escaped. It is not for nothing that Pawar is a consummate politician.. here as well, he has effectively dumped the whole mess in Thackreys lap when he probably started the whole thing with Parambir Singh.

One thing is still strange: The NCP has a huge cash flow from the sugarcane factories, banks and educational institutes from the Maharashtra hinterland. They have no need for this ridiculous extortion operation.... I suspect that Parambir Singh switched alliances to Sena and their extortion racket and Pawar was aware of it. He may have asked Vaze to expose this to send a shot across Sena!s bows to remind them of their place...

Otherwise this affair is amateurish to the extreme
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by banrjeer »

This democracy index stuff and regime change is a modern version of the inquisition. Trumps as an individual said "shit hole country". A relatively harmless aberration because he was a non interventionist.

But Far more damaging is the notion of "shit hole democracies" because western institutions chant it and legitimize it at scale.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KL Dubey »

Ambar wrote:It increasingly appears to me that Vaze feared for his life and wanted to get caught so he could expose his masters. Nothing else explains the sloppiness of leaving a car filled with explosives outside Ambani's fortress, and then leaving a long, easy traceable electronic evidence behind him.
I wondered the same too. A seasoned operator committing such mistakes seems unusual. It's either an escape route devised by Poramboke and Wazoo for getting out of this alive, or a diversion from something else that is much more important. Let us see what new revelations come from Deshmurkh. Congis have been unusually low-key....

This whole thing is a convoluted mess....multiple intertwined plots, starting from the SSR/Disha/diarRhea cases. Modi sarkar has gotten its tentacles firmly around MVA, with multiple central agencies (CBI, ED, NIA, NCB, etc) getting deep into the picture. Seems like curtains for the MVA soon.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by nachiket »

KL Dubey wrote: This whole thing is a convoluted mess....multiple intertwined plots, starting from the SSR/Disha/diarRhea cases. Modi sarkar has gotten its tentacles firmly around MVA, with multiple central agencies (CBI, ED, NIA, NCB, etc) getting deep into the picture. Seems like curtains for the MVA soon.
This won't change the numbers in the Assembly. At the most we might see people like Deshmukh resigning and getting replaced by other equally shady characters (shady is the only kind available in the NCP). With Pawarful people in power in alliance with the Thackerays, most people had already assumed that ungodly levels of corruption and debauchery would be happening in the background. The only surprise is that all of this came out. Perhaps after being out of power for a while (in NCP's case) and being kept on a tight leash by Fadnavis (in Thackeray's case) they were both too ravenous in their greed and ended up being reckless.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Shaktimaan »

New line of attack is on the authenticity of the letter itself. This whole thing keeps getting murkier and murkier.

Tweet from ANI

“Letter from Param Bir Singh was received at 4:37 pm today via a different email address, not his official one & was without his signature. The new email address needs to be checked. Home Ministry is trying to contact him for the same: Chief Minister's Office, Maharashtra”
KL Dubey
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KL Dubey »

nachiket wrote:This won't change the numbers in the Assembly. At the most we might see people like Deshmukh resigning and getting replaced by other equally shady characters (shady is the only kind available in the NCP).
Resigning is just the tip of the iceberg. Continued pursuit and prosecution of these characters and their handlers by central agencies (and the media) is what will bring down the MVA. It may simply collapse due to exit of parties from it. As of now the central sarkar has many levers to turn in MH....I don't think anyone wants this MVA to complete a 5-year term...the time to push hard is now.
Shaktimaan
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Shaktimaan »

I feel Pappu may be the first to pull the plug on this unholy mess of an alliance.

The Shiv Sena and the NCP are Maharashtra-only parties but Pappu is fighting 5 state elections now and many more to come this year. They are junior partners in this alliance and you can be sure the BJP will use these events to remind the public of the open loot of the UPA from 2004-2014. Plus the Gandhis were said to be reluctant to tie up with a supposedly Hindutvawadi party like the Sena to begin with. One of the major architects of this alliance, Ahmed Patel has passed away now.

So Pappu may decide that this MVA government is not worth the bad name they’re getting and try to take the high ground by walking out.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ambar »

Even MVA partners know they wont survive 5 years, its a given that Congress will pull support 10-12 months before the next assembly elections. Congress' silence from the beginning of the MVA govt is a strategic one letting Shiv Sena and NCP fall on the sword.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KL Dubey »

^^Sooner the better. With these scandals unfolding and covid running amok in MH (including junior dork Thakre catching it yesterday), Pres. Ramanathan could be well justified in dismissing the MH sarkar for incompetence and corruption.
chetak
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Tanaji wrote:Sachin Vaze will soon be suicided, he is too valuable to be left living. It is interesting Pawars name is once again linked to this.. there used to be rumblings of Dawood and Pawar many years back but as usual Pawar escaped. It is not for nothing that Pawar is a consummate politician.. here as well, he has effectively dumped the whole mess in Thackreys lap when he probably started the whole thing with Parambir Singh.

One thing is still strange: The NCP has a huge cash flow from the sugarcane factories, banks and educational institutes from the Maharashtra hinterland. They have no need for this ridiculous extortion operation.... I suspect that Parambir Singh switched alliances to Sena and their extortion racket and Pawar was aware of it. He may have asked Vaze to expose this to send a shot across Sena!s bows to remind them of their place...

Otherwise this affair is amateurish to the extreme

100 cr from dance bars was not the only revenue stream that was activated. This has to be shared 3 ways so it becomes a piddly amount

there are even more lucrative revenue streams in play

It is only the covid fiasco that is stopping the BJP from making the play.

the thookers from the NCP/congis will create large scale havoc on the streets of major towns and cities

If the BJP come in when the covid is raging in MAH, the MVA will shift the entire blame for the mess onto the BJP.

OTOH, the MVA, I strongly suspect, is purposely botching up the covid situation to keep the BJP at bay so as to maximize the revenue income before they are forced to return to the pavillion.

the MAH state is far too advanced, health care wise, and far too efficient as well as extremely competent in public services to be overtaken so easily by the covid fiasco. I have lived in MAH for many years

The BJP has caught the MVA in the act of corruption and so it is possible that vaze and now parambir may be scheduled for the high jump as part of the coverup.

Having likely gotten wind of this, both appear to have taken precautions to blunt the attack against them and survive the onslaught.

Hard evidence may already have been given to the central agencies by these two so that, come what may, much bigger fish are also going to be netted if any harm befalls the dirty duo.

pappu may take a major hit from any fall out, if the congis are seen as part of the monthly deposit scheme.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by nachiket »

KL Dubey wrote: Resigning is just the tip of the iceberg. Continued pursuit and prosecution of these characters and their handlers by central agencies (and the media) is what will bring down the MVA. It may simply collapse due to exit of parties from it. As of now the central sarkar has many levers to turn in MH....I don't think anyone wants this MVA to complete a 5-year term...the time to push hard is now.
Which party is going to exit? All three are dirty to the core and their only hope lies in retaining power. Modi-Shah in Delhi and Fadnavis in MH would be their worst nightmare.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

KL Dubey wrote:^^Sooner the better. With these scandals unfolding and covid running amok in MH (including junior dork Thakre catching it yesterday), Pres. Ramanathan could be well justified in dismissing the MH sarkar for incompetence and corruption.
junior dork catching it yesterday is a ploy to keep the press away and shield the junior dork from any unpleasant limelight

it's a good call, actually.
chetak
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

nachiket wrote:
KL Dubey wrote: Resigning is just the tip of the iceberg. Continued pursuit and prosecution of these characters and their handlers by central agencies (and the media) is what will bring down the MVA. It may simply collapse due to exit of parties from it. As of now the central sarkar has many levers to turn in MH....I don't think anyone wants this MVA to complete a 5-year term...the time to push hard is now.
Which party is going to exit? All three are dirty to the core and their only hope lies in retaining power. Modi-Shah in Delhi and Fadnavis in MH would be their worst nightmare.
fadnavis will be back but along with him, a few more marathas will also make their appearance.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KL Dubey »

nachiket wrote:Which party is going to exit?
Either the Congis or NCP, or both (as UPA). They have much lower stakes in the MVA than the SS, which started this whole business out of pure personal greed and ego of the dork duo and their sycophants.

You are not "retaining power" much if your top leaders in the state are targeted by central law enforcement and there is nothing much you can do about it. Let us wait and watch.

Notes:

https://www.republicworld.com/india-new ... or-us.html

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/natio ... aut-228080
Last edited by KL Dubey on 21 Mar 2021 00:13, edited 1 time in total.
Ambar
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ambar »

Don't be so sure. If i have to bet on 2 states Congress coming back to power with majority it is Karnataka and Maharashtra . The MVA corruption, thuggery , mismanagement has not hit Congress directly and in Karnataka thanks to constant bickering among various BJP factions, people are fed up and will vote back Congress into power. For Fadnavis to win back the power, BJP will have to win pretty much 3/4th of Shiv Sena seats and atleast 1/3rd of NCP seats while retaining every single one of their current seat in the next elections. It is hard for incumbent opposition MLAs to win because their constituencies get screwed over by the party in power, so BJP has an uphill task winning back MH on its own unless it breaks MLAs from the other 3 parties.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KL Dubey »

Ambar wrote:Don't be so sure.

...

For Fadnavis to win back the power, BJP will have to win pretty much 3/4th of Shiv Sena seats and atleast 1/3rd of NCP seats while retaining every single one of their current seat in the next elections. It is hard for incumbent opposition MLAs to win because their constituencies get screwed over by the party in power, so BJP has an uphill task winning back MH on its own unless it breaks MLAs from the other 3 parties.
I'm not sure - if I was sure, I'd say so.

Politics in MH will not be the same after MVA breakup. There will realignments, defections, vote transfers, a large saffron push by BJP to take over the SS voteshare....not to speak of people's disenchantment with MVA.

Note: https://www.republicworld.com/india-new ... party.html
Last edited by KL Dubey on 21 Mar 2021 00:17, edited 1 time in total.
chetak
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Ambar wrote:Even MVA partners know they wont survive 5 years, its a given that Congress will pull support 10-12 months before the next assembly elections. Congress' silence from the beginning of the MVA govt is a strategic one letting Shiv Sena and NCP fall on the sword.
both the SS and the NCP have plans to cannibalize and consume the congis in MAH as the BJP themselves also have similar plans for the SS.

The congis and the SS are aware of this and are wary.

mafia queen has sent specific orders to the congis in MAH to steer clear of the vaze affair and keep their heads down. there was either a report or a tweet about this some days ago

many parties all over India are very apprehensive about the coming 5 state elections and the possibility of the BJP winning in a majority of these states.

It means that the BJP could have a brute majority in both houses of parliament on their own
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by nachiket »

KL Dubey wrote:
nachiket wrote:Which party is going to exit?
Either the Congis or NCP, or both (as UPA). They have much lower stakes in the MVA than the SS, which started this whole business out of pure personal greed and ego of the dork duo and their sycophants.

You are not "retaining power" much if your top leaders in the state are targeted by central law enforcement and there is nothing much you can do about it. Let us wait and watch.
Dubey ji, what Congress needs more than anything is money to fight elections using their usual dirty tactics. Aside from Punjab, MH is the only place where they can get it. It has been Congress's cash cow for decades and there's more money to go around there than any other state. As for NCP, Anil Deshmukh is from the NCP. They are neck deep in this whole mess alongside the SS.
chetak
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

no more doubts remain about the authenticity of parambir's letter to uddhav

Shiv Aroor@ShivAroor

Ex-Mumbai Police Commissioner Parambir Singh ends speculation, confirms that the e-mailed letter to the CM is indeed his own & that signed copy will reach the Maharashtra Govt shortly. @IndiaToday

11:18 pm · 20 Mar 2021·Twitter for iPhone
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by kvraghav »

So I think two things will happen.
NIA reaches Deshmukh doors
Parambir will be recalled by center. He will go on leave and directly report post that to center is what I feel. He may already be out of MH.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KLNMurthy »

Shaktimaan wrote:I feel Pappu may be the first to pull the plug on this unholy mess of an alliance.

The Shiv Sena and the NCP are Maharashtra-only parties but Pappu is fighting 5 state elections now and many more to come this year. They are junior partners in this alliance and you can be sure the BJP will use these events to remind the public of the open loot of the UPA from 2004-2014. Plus the Gandhis were said to be reluctant to tie up with a supposedly Hindutvawadi party like the Sena to begin with. One of the major architects of this alliance, Ahmed Patel has passed away now.

So Pappu may decide that this MVA government is not worth the bad name they’re getting and try to take the high ground by walking out.
Really? What is it about Pappu’s past history that makes you think Pappu has basic politics 101 smarts to cut MVA loose?
chetak
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

KLNMurthy wrote:
Shaktimaan wrote:I feel Pappu may be the first to pull the plug on this unholy mess of an alliance.

The Shiv Sena and the NCP are Maharashtra-only parties but Pappu is fighting 5 state elections now and many more to come this year. They are junior partners in this alliance and you can be sure the BJP will use these events to remind the public of the open loot of the UPA from 2004-2014. Plus the Gandhis were said to be reluctant to tie up with a supposedly Hindutvawadi party like the Sena to begin with. One of the major architects of this alliance, Ahmed Patel has passed away now.

So Pappu may decide that this MVA government is not worth the bad name they’re getting and try to take the high ground by walking out.
Really? What is it about Pappu’s past history that makes you think Pappu has basic politics 101 smarts to cut MVA loose?
mamma mia is in control.

she will not risk pappu gumming up the works in MAH, especially when padma bushan is actively looking for a sacrificial goat to halal.

she's already told her guys to lay low.

so, by popular choice, the SS may well take the hit, hobbling the local dynasty for some years to come

if the MVA gets into a squabbling match, the maratha vote will split in favor of the BJP.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by asbchakri »

Looks like congress is really distancing itself from this mess :mrgreen:

https://www.republicworld.com/india-new ... tions.html
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ambar »

Do we know where Param Bir Singh was posted during 26/11 ? I feel the same thread connects Malegoan 2008, 26/11 attacks, arrest of Col Purohit and Sadhvi Pragya, fake Hindu terror bogey, SSR/Disha Salian murder and the Antilla bomb laden Scorpio. I hope the center pulls Param Bir Singh out of MH asap and nails him. There's still much we don't know about local support for 26/11, and who sent Hemant Karkare (himself a politically well connected police officer with deep ties to INC and was friends with Shivraj Patil and Digvijay Singh) and Vijay Salaskar, a one time colleague of Sachin Vaze in Mumbai CB, to that particular street near Cama Hospital where the terrorist lay waiting for them.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KL Dubey »

Ambar wrote:Do we know where Param Bir Singh was posted during 26/11 ? I feel the same thread connects Malegoan 2008, 26/11 attacks, arrest of Col Purohit and Sadhvi Pragya, fake Hindu terror bogey, SSR/Disha Salian murder and the Antilla bomb laden Scorpio. I hope the center pulls Param Bir Singh out of MH asap and nails him. There's still much we don't know about local support for 26/11, and who sent Hemant Karkare (himself a politically well connected police officer with deep ties to INC and was friends with Shivraj Patil and Digvijay Singh) and Vijay Salaskar, a one time colleague of Sachin Vaze in Mumbai CB, to that particular street near Cama Hospital where the terrorist lay waiting for them.
According to this story, he has been posted in Mumbai throughout his career. He was part of the 26/11 response along with Karkare and apparently "chased Kasab".

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 557826.cms
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Ambar »

Interesting. I found an old article on HT which mentions Param Bir Singh. The then Mumbai Police Commissioner had accused him along with 3 other officers of inaction.
Ten months after Hasan Gafoor was removed as Mumbai’s police commissioner allegedly for inaction during 26/11, he has accused some senior officers of not taking on the terrorists.

In an interview to news magazine, The Week, Gafoor said “a section of senior police officers refused to be on the ground and take on the terrorists. By doing so, they chose to ignore the need of the hour”.

The Ram Pradhan committee, which probed the response of the Mumbai police and other security agencies, had indicted Gafoor for collapse of the police’s command and control structure during the attack.

The four senior police officers Gafoor names in the interview are K.L. Prasad, Parambir Singh, Deven Bharti and K. Venkatesham.

Deposing before the Pradhan committee, the four are reported to have been critical of Gafoor’s actions during the terror attack.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/mumbai/2 ... OjRqI.html

Speaking of which, in an interview some 7 or 8 years ago, RVS Mani, who is a former under-secretary in the Central Home Ministry, had recalled an interesting episode. Apparently sometime in 2007 there was a small blast in a chemical plant in Pune. This at a time when India routinely had a major bomb blast every few months made the home ministry take notice and sent RVS Mani among others to investigate and prepare a report. When RVS Mani submitted the report directly to the then home minister Shivraj Patil, the minister kept pressing to investigate "hindu terror" angle. Despite Mani saying it was an accidental explosion in an unlicensed chemical plant and not a terror attack, the home minister insisted he go back and investigate further. RVS remembers the minister was with another man in his office that day and it was only after 26/11 that he realized that the man in Shivraj Patil's office in 2007 was none other than Hemant Karkare. The more i think about it the more i feel the first hour and a half of Nana Patekar's "Ab tak chappan" was almost a documentary like accurate depiction of Mumbai Crime Branch and its working, the last hour ofcourse was pure fantasy.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KL Dubey »

nachiket wrote:
KL Dubey wrote:Dubey ji, what Congress needs more than anything is money to fight elections using their usual dirty tactics. Aside from Punjab, MH is the only place where they can get it. It has been Congress's cash cow for decades and there's more money to go around there than any other state. As for NCP, Anil Deshmukh is from the NCP. They are neck deep in this whole mess alongside the SS.
Again - when the cat is away, the mice will play together. Now that the cat has started hunting, the mice will scatter helter-skelter.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Rishi_Tri »

Ambar wrote:Don't be so sure. If i have to bet on 2 states Congress coming back to power with majority it is Karnataka and Maharashtra . The MVA corruption, thuggery , mismanagement has not hit Congress directly and in Karnataka thanks to constant bickering among various BJP factions, people are fed up and will vote back Congress into power. For Fadnavis to win back the power, BJP will have to win pretty much 3/4th of Shiv Sena seats and atleast 1/3rd of NCP seats while retaining every single one of their current seat in the next elections. It is hard for incumbent opposition MLAs to win because their constituencies get screwed over by the party in power, so BJP has an uphill task winning back MH on its own unless it breaks MLAs from the other 3 parties.
Hmm..

Nothing personal but you either haven't been to either Karnataka or Maharashtra recently or speak in very limited circle with obvious leanings.

Maha - everyone knows and says, MVA especially Shiv Sena understand they are not coming back, ever. Thus gather as much as they can and as soon as they can. Mumbai cops have always acted as local thugs but now it is their main occupation under able guidance of Sena. Don't want to call them Shiv Sena anymore, as they are anti thesis to whatever Mahakaal is.

Palghar Murders > SSR / Other Film Murders > Botched Investigations > Arnab arrest and arraignment for 10 days > Pooja Chavan murder / suicide > Extortion from Mukesh Ambani!! ...

The Maha Administration will do down as perhaps the worst ever in Independent India. I would say even worse than Lalu Admin in Bihar...

Karnataka -- as long as BJP understands the strength of BSY (which thankfully it does now), no one can come close to BJP in Karnataka. BTW, BSY is a very capable person and good to go another 10 years. After the mess previous admin did (as an example) with infra projects in Blore, things are moving at very fast clip... I can go on and on about BJP admin / BSY in Karnataka.
Last edited by Rishi_Tri on 21 Mar 2021 06:33, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Rishi_Tri »

The powers be should, following Vaze's NIA custody, go for Mr Sing's custody, then Mr Deshmuks. After all, though they may not be in power, but they have larger responsibility to the people of Maha.

In my view, this has been a failure of the powers be / Fadnavis in not making use of their mandate and rescuing Maha earlier as it in serious need of rescue... and yes.. Fadnavis is incompetent and should be made to make way for Chitra Wagh. Much more dynamic and fiesty.

Palghar murder by 100s .. Arnab arraignment for 10 days.. Threat to extort from India's Richest man .. abject failure.. All this happened because Palghar didn't result in any action..

I am sure.. one Gujju bhai called other.. and said.. Kemcho.. in anger!! .. then NIA stepped in..
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