2021 Five State Elections

[Ambar]

There are 7 MP bye-elections also in contention -

Kanniyakumari TN
Malappuram KL
Tirupati AP
Belagavi KAR
Dadra and Nagar Haveli UT
Khandwa MH
Mandi HP

3 out of these 7 seats were held by BJP and 1 is with INC, the other 3 are from regional parties/independents. I think the Malappuram seat is the easiest to predict, it will remain with IUML. The ones in MH and KAR will be the most interesting to watch to gauge the anti incumbency.

[Kati]

This gives a more realistic scenario about Assam and West Bengal.
Not sure about Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIr_V0BmdzU

[Prem Kumar]

Bliss to focus anti jinxes on WB Phayze 7 and 8 only....rest of election rijalts are already in the EVMs.

Not according to Schrodinger Cat paradox. Jinxes & anti-jinxes will work till results are announced.

[Kati]

Mumtaaz Banoo has claimed in an election rally today that she is going to the SC after the election against the EC.
(Possibly laying the ground for her refusal to leave office, and thereby creating a law and order situation through her marauding peacefool foot-soldiers.)


No one is countering Mumtaaz Banoo on her excuses more than Sri Shafiqul Islam of Arambagh TV. Here she is ripping Mumtaaz on this alleged fake "proof of WA chats among EC officials" based on which she is planning to approach the SC.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_dcM2FnNkU

Sri Shafiqul Islam is doing a yoman's job in calling Mumtaaz Banoo's every bluff, - being it seducing the muslims by reciting wrong 'Kalma' at election rallies, or inciting violence against the central forces who are overseeing the election. No wonder Mumtaaz Banoo let loose her police goons on Sri Islam.

Sri Shafiqul Islam deserves a Bharat Ratna. I would like to suggest his name to the GoI.

[Philip]

Mamta is in serious trouble in Bengal. The reports coming out from there say that while she is still respected," change" is wanted and the citizens have tried both the Left/Cong before and may give the BJP the nod.The BJP in reality has had little work to do to get votes. The anti-incumbency factor has had strong traction.
However, will the high % of the votebank that the BJP got in the Lok Sabha polls remain in this state poll? Across the country we've seen the voter in many states voting differently at central and state elections,preferring a son or daughter of the soil to an"outsider". The difference according to one channel and its expert pollsters is just 2% of the vote for either party. It will mean the difference between victory and defeat. A 1% increase may not be enough for the BJP. The CV crisis,large rallies being banned may have an effect as the BJP has been relying upon Central leaders to campaign having poor local party leadership , mainly defectors
who jumped ship.

In the other southern states,strong local outfits will rule the roost yet again.They're too well entretched given local linguistic and socio-cultural factors for the BJP making inroads as it is still seen as a north-Indian , upper-caste religion-oriented party. Pondicherry may be the best chance to share power with a local outfit and ally,the Cong. having disintegrated yet again.

[Kati]

^^^^
Nearly half of the seats will be decided by less than 1% margin.
In Bengal, apart from the anti-incumbency, Hindu vote will be consolidated against TMC due to Mumtaaz Banoo's pandering to the peacefools.

May I add a couple more things:
1. One channel ran a survey to gauge the voters' mood. Not sure how scientific the survey was, but they surveyed more than 50,000 voters, and asked
them to choose one of the three following statements, and got the corresponding preferences:
"Jai Sri Ram" = 62%
"Khela Hobey" (= "Game's On") (= TMC's catch phrase) = 25%
"Laal Selaam" = 13%
However, general population's preferences have not much to do with constituency-wise preferences which should matter most.]

2. Defector or not, some of the turncoats who joined BJP recently seem to be the right people who had been with the wrong party before. I have been watching the rallies covered by two stalwarts - Shuvendu Adhikary and Rajib Bandopadhyay. They have taken the responsibility of being the state BJP's saviors, and have been shouldering disproportionate number of rallies in far corners. Both of them are down to earth, connect very well with the masses, and have been more effective than the state BJP old-timers. Especially, Shuvebdu Adhikary is a very good mass leader, and definitely he will be able to carry responsibilities at the national level. Above all, very interestingly, he has his own network pretty much in every district, every Zilla Parishad.

[Dilbu]

BJP will lose onlee.

[chetak]

@Kati ji

Khela Hobey,

joy bangla, and

ma, maati, manush.

all three are slogans that mumtaz bano has shamelessly copied from her beedi cousins across the border

not even a syllable in the three slogans is a TMC or mumtaz bano original

[kit]

The elections must be postponed in these unprecedented times. There is no time for politicos to be campaigning and people need to self-isolate and care for the fellow human beings. Absolutely no mass gathering whatsoever, religious or political should happen for the next one year.

[rsingh]

The elections must be postponed in these unprecedented times. There is no time for politicos to be campaigning and people need to self-isolate and care for the fellow human beings. Absolutely no mass gathering whatsoever, religious or political should happen for the next one year.

It is almost done. Why you want that they start whole drama next year yet again ?
Come 2nd May and be with it. Anyway we are paying for our chalta hai attitude only. There are many more things that are shitty in India. Have you seen street food hygiene in India, how the drinking glass is washed at drink stand ? Just imagine one single TB patient drinks from glass and that glass is used 50-60 times a day without proper cleaning. Panipuri stand and other street food sellers are biggest spreader of disease in Indian cities. I am horrified when I see educated people drink and eat at such unhygienic place without second thought.

[Kati]

The elections must be postponed in these unprecedented times. There is no time for politicos to be campaigning and people need to self-isolate and care for the fellow human beings. Absolutely no mass gathering whatsoever, religious or political should happen for the next one year.

It is almost done. Why you want that they start whole drama next year yet again ?
Come 2nd May and be with it. Anyway we are paying for our chalta hai attitude only. There are many more things that are shitty in India. Have you seen street food hygiene in India, how the drinking glass is washed at drink stand ? Just imagine one single TB patient drinks from glass and that glass is used 50-60 times a day without proper cleaning. Panipuri stand and other street food sellers are biggest spreader of disease in Indian cities. I am horrified when I see educated people drink and eat at such unhygienic place without second thought.

Very well-said, RSingh-saar. Election is almost done. The BIF-people are scrambling to save their rear end, and this election postponement is one of the excuses.

[Kati]

@Kati ji

Khela Hobey,

joy bangla, and

ma, maati, manush.

all three are slogans that mumtaz bano has shamelessly copied from her beedi cousins across the border

not even a syllable in the three slogans is a TMC or mumtaz bano original

Absolutely true Chetak-saar about "Joy Bangla" and "Maa Mati Manush" slogans - borrowed from next door. I don't know the origin of "Khela Hobey" though - it was first introduced by Anubrata Mandal - TMC's muscleman and the district president of Birbhum district, and Mumtaaz Banoo's close confidant.

[chetak]

@Kati ji

Khela Hobey,

joy bangla, and

ma, maati, manush.

all three are slogans that mumtaz bano has shamelessly copied from her beedi cousins across the border

not even a syllable in the three slogans is a TMC or mumtaz bano original

Absolutely true Chetak-saar about "Joy Bangla" and "Maa Mati Manush" slogans - borrowed from next door. I don't know the origin of "Khela Hobey" though - it was first introduced by Anubrata Mandal - TMC's muscleman and the district president of Birbhum district, and Mumtaaz Banoo's close confidant.

here you go, Kati ji.



Bengal elections: How ‘Khela hobe’ has become a slogan for both TMC and BJP

What is the meaning of the ‘Khela hobe’ slogan?

The slogan was first used by Bangladesh’s Awami League MP Shamim Osman a few years ago.

But it was popularised in West Bengal by Trinamool Congress president of Birbhum district, Anubrata Mondal, who at a local political event said, “Khela hobe. Bhoyonkor khela hobe. Ei mati te khela hobe.” (The game is on. It will be a dangerous game. But the game is on and this will be the playground.)

BJP leaders have alleged that TMC leaders have merely borrowed a slogan which was first used in Bangladesh, but it is not clear if Mondal was aware of the coinage by Osman.

However, since Mondal’s first usage, the slogan has become an intrinsic part of the day-to-day political vocabulary of the state, with all political parties using it.

The slogan, through which leaders are challenging their opponents now, likens the political battlefield to a playground. It means this electoral battle has not been decided yet — there is a lot to fight for in these Assembly polls and only time will tell who has the last laugh.

[Dilbu]

BJP will lose onlee.

[Sumeet]

Ramana, I know we have focussed on Bengal a lot but what about Assam ? What is NDA prospects in Assam ?

[Kati]

Absolutely true Chetak-saar about "Joy Bangla" and "Maa Mati Manush" slogans - borrowed from next door. I don't know the origin of "Khela Hobey" though - it was first introduced by Anubrata Mandal - TMC's muscleman and the district president of Birbhum district, and Mumtaaz Banoo's close confidant.

here you go, Kati ji.



Bengal elections: How ‘Khela hobe’ has become a slogan for both TMC and BJP

What is the meaning of the ‘Khela hobe’ slogan?

The slogan was first used by Bangladesh’s Awami League MP Shamim Osman a few years ago.

But it was popularised in West Bengal by Trinamool Congress president of Birbhum district, Anubrata Mondal, who at a local political event said, “Khela hobe. Bhoyonkor khela hobe. Ei mati te khela hobe.” (The game is on. It will be a dangerous game. But the game is on and this will be the playground.)

BJP leaders have alleged that TMC leaders have merely borrowed a slogan which was first used in Bangladesh, but it is not clear if Mondal was aware of the coinage by Osman.

Thanks, Chetak-Saar.


However, since Mondal’s first usage, the slogan has become an intrinsic part of the day-to-day political vocabulary of the state, with all political parties using it.

The slogan, through which leaders are challenging their opponents now, likens the political battlefield to a playground. It means this electoral battle has not been decided yet — there is a lot to fight for in these Assembly polls and only time will tell who has the last laugh.

[Kati]

It will be a close call in Assam. Prediction for BJP 68+.
Even if BJP falls short narrowly then some "others" will lend support.

[Prem Kumar]

Why is it a close call in Assam? A few weeks back, BJP seemed to be sitting pretty

Has the demographics changed so much? Or is there resentment due to unmet expectations?

[Deans]

The elections must be postponed in these unprecedented times. There is no time for politicos to be campaigning and people need to self-isolate and care for the fellow human beings. Absolutely no mass gathering whatsoever, religious or political should happen for the next one year.

This argument misses an important point.
If the EC had decided to postpone the elections (its the EC's call not the Govt's), President's rule would have to be imposed, as the term of the
TMC govt was ending. Imagine the furore if that happened - murder of democracy etc.

As far as banning rallies etc was concerned, BJP was in favour, the combined opposition was not, as they felt the BJP had an edge in digital and
social media. EC ruled in favour of rallies.
Those who feel the prolonged election campaign in WB is causing the spread of covid, should ask why WB needed an 8 phase election, when all the other states had 1. That was the only way the EC felt the TMC violence could be controlled by central forces. It was not very long ago that 35% of all panchayat seats were won unopposed because none dared to stand against the TMC candidate.

[uddu]

^^^Absolutely correct. Can the EC approach SC and state that the High courts are meddling and making unnecessary comments. They must also point out that the most affected states are MH and DL where there is no election going on and also state all the above points. Let's see what the SC says.

[Vips]

The elections must be postponed in these unprecedented times. There is no time for politicos to be campaigning and people need to self-isolate and care for the fellow human beings. Absolutely no mass gathering whatsoever, religious or political should happen for the next one year.

Those who feel the prolonged election campaign in WB is causing the spread of covid, should ask why WB needed an 8 phase election, when all the other states had 1. That was the only way the EC felt the TMC violence could be controlled by central forces. It was not very long ago that 35% of all panchayat seats were won unopposed because none dared to stand against the TMC candidate.

Very important point. People forget that last vidhan sabha elections in West Bengal in 2016 were spread over Six phases.

There was violence last time so to control/prevent it it had to be done this time in Eight phases.

[Kati]

^^^Absolutely correct. Can the EC approach SC and state that the High courts are meddling and making unnecessary comments. They must also point out that the most affected states are MH and DL where there is no election going on and also state all the above points. Let's see what the SC says.

I will make a few observations.

1. The observation made by Madras High Court holding EC responsible foe Covid spread etc.
First of all, TMC and other opposition is using this as a moral victory and going around the town beating drums. BJP said that it has nothing to do with it as the matter falls under EC's purview.
One is is important - Madras HC just made an "observation", it is NOT a judgment passed by the Hon'able HC. Constitution of India does NOT give any power to any HC or the SC to intervene in EC's activities. Once the election schedule is declared, EC is paramount, and no one can question EC's judgment. Yes, EC is supposed to enforce Covid guidelines which were flouted in many places through mega rallies. That's all, - one can criticize EC, nothing more. I just watched the lengthy commentary given by a noted and respected Political Science faculty Sri Biswanath Chakraborty, and he has made it amply clear that no court can or have the power to challenge the EC.

2. In Phase-7, the voting percentage available till 5 pm is interesting. In rural areas voting has been 80% till 5 pm, which means it will hit about 85% once the final tallies are done. This includes large areas of South Dinajpur, Malda and Murshidabad districts. Compared to this voting in urban areas has been much less - 60% in Kolkata, and 72% in Paschim Bardhaman (West Burdwan) district. (Add another 4 to 5% for the final tally).

3. In Murshidabad district where 9 seats went to poll today- a heavily Muslim dominated district (75%+ muslim), voting till 5 pm has been recorded as 83%, and the final tally is expected to hit a staggering 87%+. Mumtaaz Banoo has campaigned here stoking fear of deportation of the Muslims if BJP comes to power. This is supposed to be a home turf of INC leader Adhir Ranjan Choudhury (and he is called the Badshah of Murshidabad). But this time the Badshah is going to lose his clothes, and Muslims are shift tactically to TMC. There is a hope that Bhaijaan's ISF is going to take some of that vote away based on the community sentiment. In South Dinajpur, voting till 5 pm has been 80%

4. Within Kolkata "electoral district" where 4 seats went to poll today, Port Trust area (a mini TSP) saw unprecedented high turnout - about 67% till 5 pm (expect a final tally of 72%). In the rest of Kolkata the final tally may hit 64%. In urban areas, well to do people stayed away from voting due to the Covid fear, and slum dwellers voted in larger %, and it may help TMC. The same has been observed in the large industrial - urban are of Paschim Bardhaman (Raniganj-Asansol-Kulti belt) - voting % has been recorded around 72% till 5 pm. It was way higher in 2019 GE.

5. Finally, the predictions made by Sri Shafiqul Islam of Arambagh TV about the seats went to poll today:

South Dinajpur (seats-6): BJP=5; TMC -1
Paschim Bardhaman (seats -9): BJP - 9; TMC - 0
Kolkata (seats - 4): BJP - 2 (Bhabanipore and Rashbihari); TMC - 2 (Ballygunj and Port Trust area)
Maldah (seats - 6): BJP - 2, TMC - 2, Others - 2
Murshidabad (seats - 9): BJP - 1-2; TMC - 4 - 7, Others - rest

All in all, predicted BJP = 19

(I think it is a bit optimistic, my gut feeling 15.)

[shravanp]

One more phase to go. Will the counting start on May-2 or will it start before that and results will be declared on May-2?

[nachiket]

One more phase to go. Will the counting start on May-2 or will it start before that and results will be declared on May-2?

Counting begins on May 2 and results will be updated throughout the process as they are obtained.

[Kati]

Last phase (phase-8) will take place on April 29th.
That evening the exit polls will be released. Next two days, - April 30th and May 1st, will be the preparations for counting which starts on May 2nd morning, and will be wrapped up by the evening.

[Kati]

Why is it a close call in Assam? A few weeks back, BJP seemed to be sitting pretty

Has the demographics changed so much? Or is there resentment due to unmet expectations?

We don't forget that Assam has 35% minority population. Among the rest there are hundreds of small and large communities, including tribal groups. It is an amazing feat that BJP pretty much consolidated the remaining 60% or so Hindu votes, and has been in power. (Some tribal communities are Christians.) This time INC and AIUDF made an alliance, and have tactical support from a Bodo faction which will get them a good number of seats - may be around 45+. Let us see how things show up on May 2nd. It is the young Hindu generation which is giving a leg up to BJP in both Assam and WB. If you see the 55+ age group among Hindus then a good chunk is non-BJP.

[nachiket]

Even the 35% number is from 2011. It has surely increased since then. Last time around, 70% of Muslims in Assam voted for Congress and 20% for AIUDF. There were 79 assembly seats where this is a decisive factor. BJP won many of these the last time because of vote split between the Congress and AIUDF. This time around the Congress-AIUDF alliance might win nearly all of them. I don't know why the perception was that BJP was sitting pretty. It was always going to be a close election.

This is not like UP where the thugbandhan did not work because BJP managed to turn OBC and Dalit voters towards them. There is zero chance of BJP getting any Muslim votes in Assam.

[Shanmukh]

Even the 35% number is from 2011. It has surely increased since then. Last time around, 70% of Muslims in Assam voted for Congress and 20% for AIUDF. There were 79 assembly seats where this is a decisive factor. BJP won many of these the last time because of vote split between the Congress and AIUDF. This time around the Congress-AIUDF alliance might win nearly all of them. I don't know why the perception was that BJP was sitting pretty. It was always going to be a close election.

This is not like UP where the thugbandhan did not work because BJP managed to turn OBC and Dalit voters towards them. There is zero chance of BJP getting any Muslim votes in Assam.

The actual voting population of Muslims is ~30%. Muslims were 34.2% in 2011, but a large number are still under the voting age, since it is in the under-18 age that Muslims are in much higher proportions. Further, there are ~5-10 lakh Muslims who are Bangladeshis legally in Assam, and who don't vote. The number of Bangladeshi Muslims legally in Bengal is ~10-20 lakhs, BTW. Muslim voting population in Bengal is ~25%.

Christians are ~4% in Assam. There are not many cryptos in Assam, BTW.

Not sure what you mean by Muslim vote being decisive in 79 seats, but the number of seats where Hindus are majority is 90-95/126. There will be strong polarisation this time too, thanks to Congress allying AIUDF. There is pure terror among Hindus at the prospect of Badruddin coming to power. This is true even in Barak and parts of lower Assam, where the Hindu Bengalis were upset due to non-implementation of CAA, which has resulted in ~1K of them being tortured in prisons by the BJP-RSS sarkar.

Oh, BTW, that Bodo party that has allied with Congress will not have too much impact. They have been running hafta and other criminal networks and have become pretty much hated everywhere in the Bodo belt, not just among the non-Bodos [who are ~66% of the Bodo tribal area], but even among the Bodos themselves. Except for a handful of their own cadres, no one is going to vote much for them. That is why they have been losing Kokrajhar in LS polls - everyone hates them. And that is why Himanta decided to dump them.

[Prem Kumar]

Thanks for the insights, guys!

The Muslim surge below 18 years of age is scary. It will tip-over in a matter of 5-10 years. Unless the BJP actually takes NRC seriously and kicks out the illegals, we'll lose all of NE and WB.

Deportation will be difficult now. It will be impossible 10 years from now.

[Philip]

President's rule would've been easier.The EC did drop the ball to a large extent and could've issued strict guidelines for campaigning,no large rallies,etc.
Stats given out show that the CV surge has been most in all states that had polls,Maha and Delhi notwithstanding.They're two of the most crowded cities in India,wave 2 highly contagious,Cal will be next to see high cases.

But the fundamental fact is that the nation as a whole got too complacent and thought it's " business as usual" , from the public to leaders and babus, ignoring the warning signs. Our health system,rated way,way ,down according to worldwide standards,along with Benin (!),somewhere in the 140th+ ranking, just cannot cope with the China virus tsunami unleashed. The next shortage predicted is going yo be health workers,nurses and doctors. After a whole year of fighting CV,they are totally worn out.A plea is being made to allow final yr. students to join straight away in CV hospitsls,etc., without doing their final exams now,to help combat the pandemic.

If you treat the entire pandemic as a Chin bio-warfare weapon unleashed upon the world,then the myriad astrologers who predicted Chin aggression against India in March are spot on!

How the current CV protocols will affect the last phases is debatable,but it will have an effect either way. The Madras HC's observations,nay accusations that the EC should be "booked for murder",will only be a " jab in the arm" for Mamta and the TMC.Whether it will be enough to cling onto power is another Q.Bengal is seeing a wind of change.

[arshyam]

President's rule would've been easier.The EC did drop the ball to a large extent and could've issued strict guidelines for campaigning,no large rallies,etc.
Stats given out show that the CV surge has been most in all states that had polls,Maha and Delhi notwithstanding.They're two of the most crowded cities in India,wave 2 highly contagious,Cal will be next to see high cases.

But the fundamental fact is that the nation as a whole got too complacent and thought it's " business as usual" , from the public to leaders and babus, ignoring the warning signs. Our health system,rated way,way ,down according to worldwide standards,along with Benin (!),somewhere in the 140th+ ranking, just cannot cope with the China virus tsunami unleashed. The next shortage predicted is going yo be health workers,nurses and doctors. After a whole year of fighting CV,they are totally worn out.A plea is being made to allow final yr. students to join straight away in CV hospitsls,etc., without doing their final exams now,to help combat the pandemic.

If you treat the entire pandemic as a Chin bio-warfare weapon unleashed upon the world,then the myriad astrologers who predicted Chin aggression against India in March are spot on!

How the current CV protocols will affect the last phases is debatable,but it will have an effect either way. The Madras HC's observations,nay accusations that the EC should be "booked for murder",will only be a " jab in the arm" for Mamta and the TMC.Whether it will be enough to cling onto power is another Q.Bengal is seeing a wind of change.

The problem is Philip sir - with presidential rule, the narrative would be big-bad Modi not allowing democracy. All those blaming Modi for everything now would have continued to do the same if they are not in office and the centre were running things. The same western press would have continued to unload their bile. So what difference does it make? Also, it's not that only poll-bound states have high cases - in fact, TN is still managing, and KL and AS are actually doing okay. WB as usual is the basket case. It's not like the centre is perfect and would have been able to run the show better - I'd wager the same mistakes might very well have happened, but with the additional consequence of stretching the centre's resources to a breaking point. We all know our bureaucrats' penchant for chai-biskoot, and with no state level leadership it would have worsened. At least now, the incumbent governments still have the responsibility and authority to run the show, and except Bengal, they are doing so - TN, KL, AS.

[Philip]

The EC could've given a limited period for the same and ensured strict guidelines. I presume that when it was announced,elections,the coming CV tsunami was never envisaged or warnings ignored.

[Dilbu]

BJP will lose onlee.

[Prem Kumar]

Epic ad, based on Pappu's IQ

[Shanmukh]

Thanks for the insights, guys!

The Muslim surge below 18 years of age is scary. It will tip-over in a matter of 5-10 years. Unless the BJP actually takes NRC seriously and kicks out the illegals, we'll lose all of NE and WB.

Deportation will be difficult now. It will be impossible 10 years from now.

Assam will be Hindu majority till 2041, at least [Saswati and I had run the numbers a few years ago using multiple modellings]. Actually, I think we have a slightly longer time period, as Muslim TFR is also dropping quite fast in many places. Bengal will be Hindu majority even in 2061. But you are right that the exploding numbers are a serious problem and the deportation should be done within a decade at most. If we take the 1951 census as the baseline, there are roughly 40 lakh illegal Bangladeshi Muslims in Assam and ~70 lakhs in Bengal. Deporting all these, in exchange for the Hindu-Buddhist population of Bangladesh [who constitute ~1.4 crores], will probably be a good idea.

The other states of concern are Jammu and Kashmir and Kerala - low Hindu TFR in both places is actually skewing things badly against Hindus. That smart city project should have a few big cities [Reasi in Jammu and Kashmir, Kozhikode, Kochi in Kerala] come up in these states to change demography through immigration. A few smart cities in Assam and Bengal, located in strategic places [Nagaon, Silchar in Assam, Koch Behar, Nabadweep, in Bengal] would also be a very good idea.

[chetak]

the guy is learning fast and one hopes that he continues to do so. modi hai tho mumkin hai

nothing stops him from charging the people when in most other states, people are paying for the jabs

those states which have promised free vaccinations have not asked anyone else for help to fulfill their obligations.

now that aadhar and pan cards have been linked, those holding pan cards should be asked to pay or vijayan should give it free as promised and absorb the cost

Pinarayi Vijayan@vijayanpinarayi · 23h

Kerala has vaccinated 57.58L with 1st and 10.39L with 2nd dose.

Though GoI is yet to allow our request for 50L doses, we will not let our exceptional drive be halted for want of vaccines.

o procure vaccines directly from the market, officials are in touch with both companies.

[vinamr_s]

Might be OT, but still posting it in absence of a thread for discussing illegal immigration:

If we take the 1951 census as the baseline, there are roughly 40 lakh illegal Bangladeshi Muslims in Assam and ~70 lakhs in Bengal. Deporting all these, in exchange for the Hindu-Buddhist population of Bangladesh [who constitute ~1.4 crores], will probably be a good idea.

Figures as high as 2cr have been reported by the government iirc. I’m interested to know how does the govt actually estimate this. Differential population growth rate of Bagledesh vs of certain religio-linguistic groups, namely Muslims who speak Bengali, in India? That’s what I would guess without any knowledge.

Also, one professor of the Indian Statistical Institute (I think his name is Samir Roy) argues that these numbers aren’t accurate as he says that internal migrants are often counted as illegal immigrants. According to him, the numbers must be vastly low I guess. Did anyone from the govt or someone who supports their numbers counter his analysis?

[Sachin]

nothing stops him from charging the people when in most other states, people are paying for the jabs

To be frank in KL even a full bottle of good liquor costs more than the price offered for COVID vaccines to the state government. The expectation that every one should get free vaccination is nothing but a pipe dream (or the standard communist tactic of living at another person's expense). What commies are asking people to do is to take the free vaccine, yet *donate* Rs. 800 to CMRDF. Instead of this, GoKL could have asked people who can pay Rs. 800 to go to the private hospitals and take the jab, or sell vaccines at this rate after buying from the companies.

What the commies are trying to do is to make people pay for the free vaccine, but into a fund in which they can later manipulate more easily. Also there is serious anomalies in the vaccine jab happening in KL. Registration on CoWin portal is becoming meaningless with parallel token issue happening by GoKL staff, and this is often for their own chamchas and friends. This also is creating an impression that there is a shortage of vaccines in the state.

now that aadhar and pan cards have been linked, those holding pan cards should be asked to pay or vijayan should give it free as promised and absorb the cost

It may be a bit tricky here. In the last KL budget the funds for COVID Vaccination was only ear marked/planned and kept aside, a new account head had not been opened in the GoKL account books to receive the funds as part of the budget allocations. Now to claim the physical funds, the legislative assembly should meet and a resolution seeking funds have to be passed, which also needs sign off from the Governor. All these can only happen after May 2nd, as a new government has to form up. In states like KA that is not a problem as the government plans (and future) was clear.

[Shanmukh]

Might be OT, but still posting it in absence of a thread for discussing illegal immigration:

If we take the 1951 census as the baseline, there are roughly 40 lakh illegal Bangladeshi Muslims in Assam and ~70 lakhs in Bengal. Deporting all these, in exchange for the Hindu-Buddhist population of Bangladesh [who constitute ~1.4 crores], will probably be a good idea.

Figures as high as 2cr have been reported by the government iirc. I’m interested to know how does the govt actually estimate this. Differential population growth rate of Bagledesh vs of certain religio-linguistic groups, namely Muslims who speak Bengali, in India? That’s what I would guess without any knowledge.

Also, one professor of the Indian Statistical Institute (I think his name is Samir Roy) argues that these numbers aren’t accurate as he says that internal migrants are often counted as illegal immigrants. According to him, the numbers must be vastly low I guess. Did anyone from the govt or someone who supports their numbers counter his analysis?

No internal migration explains the rise in the proportion of Muslims in Bengal and Assam. Here are a set of four articles that Saswati, Dikgaj and I wrote, estimating the total number of illegal Muslims from 1971. It comes to ~25 lakhs for Assam and 43 lakhs for Bengal. [This is using the 2011 census].

https://sringeribelur.wordpress.com/201 ... fications/

The total of 2 crores for the whole of India is probably a bit of an exaggeration, but we are unable to estimate the number of illegal Bangladeshi Muslims in states outside Bengal and Assam since most of them are in the big cities, where growth is very inorganic. Eastern Bihar and NE Jharkhand also have a lot of illegal Bangladeshi Muslims, but we have not estimated them.

[Supratik]

Illegal immigrants estimate from Assam NRC
Assam: 1 million M, 0.5 million H detected
1-1.5 million - most likely have entered the NRC fraudulently, were detected in first round.
Ghost citizens: About 2.5 million (from 2011 census). You can take a hunch who they will be.


My estimate
WB: 6-8 million M, 8-10 million H (H from missing nos in Bdesh)
TP: 5-7 lakhs mostly H
BH: 1-2 million mostly M'
JH: 0.5-1 million mostly M
ROI: 2-3 million both M and H but more M

So the estimate of 20-25 million is probably correct but includes both M and H.

Apart from illegal immigrants, ghost citizens will also be detected by NPR and NRC. NPR will give you a baseline figure and NRC a confirmation.
Hence the 2 layer. According to my estimates ghost citizens figure may be quite high. Only way to prove or disprove is NPR and NRC.