2021 Five State Elections

vikramb · Post by **vikramb** » 27 Apr 2021 21:20

Supratik wrote: According to my estimates ghost citizens figure may be quite high. Only way to prove or disprove is NPR and NRC.

What is meant by ghost citizens? People who exist in records but not in real?

Also can Assam and West Bengal be kept Hindu majority without mass deportations?

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 27 Apr 2021 21:38

Ghost citizens are citizens who do not exist in reality. Census figures are in reality an estimate. None of the census officials do a name by name search.
That is why the NPR where you (if I understood it correctly) do a self-declaration. That will give you a ball park figure but it can still be fudged unless seeded by Adhaar.

After the Assam NRC I am less worried. The illegal immigrants are going to self deport as was happening before the pandemic. I have posted about reports of self-deportation. The genuine illegal immigrants are probably not going to go through the slow and multi-tier process of our courts. Only genuine citizens will make that attempt. They are most likely going to pass at the tribunals itself. Although unfortunately there are some reports of genuine citizens being harassed in Assam have been coming for some time. I do not know how true the stories are.

However, even after NRC and self-deportation the demographic problem will persist in WB and AS like in Kerala. The reason is that people are not having children. The reason is primarily economic. Most people nowadays would like to have 2. But as there are no jobs they stay unmarried or have 1 children.

Also I hope the govt has taken a lesson from the fudged Assam NRC. The best organization to do this work is UIDAI who did Adhaar. They have experience and tools to handle big data. If it is left to govt officials it is going to be fudged again.

vikramb · Post by **vikramb** » 27 Apr 2021 22:07

Supratik wrote:However, even after NRC and self-deportation the demographic problem will persist in WB and AS like in Kerala.

Thank you for the detailed response. I hope the NPR can be successfully completed as last year census workers were even attacked in some parts of India on the misperception that they are conducting nationwide NRC.

I would like to ask whether the fertility gap still a big issue after the release of NFHS-4 survey 2015-16? Or are they converging at a much faster pace than previously thought?

Also will creation of autonomous councils in Assam where the political powers will be reserved for the indigenous people preserve the demographic situation by encouraging out migration of illegal migrants?

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 27 Apr 2021 22:30

Fertility gap is converging in WB but less so in AS. Let the NPR happen and if it is seeded with Adhaar we will have solid data. Right now it is all over the place. Then only illegal immigrants are left to be detected and legal citizens verified by NRC. The govt knows what it is doing.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 27 Apr 2021 22:40

In a normal situation, I would agree that illegals will self deport. But if someone is paying for their cases before the tribunal, someone manages the entire litigation and assures them that nothing will happen to them, then many may opt to stay back. INC is not totally in league with BIF and Assam, and they are total with momo BDs. One can be sure that they wish to keep that vote bank at any cost.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 27 Apr 2021 22:44

Not possible at present.

vinamr_s · Post by **vinamr_s** » 28 Apr 2021 03:58

Supratik wrote:Illegal immigrants estimate from Assam NRC
Assam: 1 million M, 0.5 million H detected
1-1.5 million - most likely have entered the NRC fraudulently, were detected in first round.
Ghost citizens: About 2.5 million (from 2011 census). You can take a hunch who they will be.

My estimate
WB: 6-8 million M, 8-10 million H (H from missing nos in Bdesh)
TP: 5-7 lakhs mostly H
BH: 1-2 million mostly M'
JH: 0.5-1 million mostly M
ROI: 2-3 million both M and H but more M

So the estimate of 20-25 million is probably correct but includes both M and H.

Apart from illegal immigrants, ghost citizens will also be detected by NPR and NRC. NPR will give you a baseline figure and NRC a confirmation.
Hence the 2 layer. According to my estimates ghost citizens figure may be quite high. Only way to prove or disprove is NPR and NRC.

Apart from “ghost citizens”, how many people could be excluded from the NRC who were born in India, whose parents/grandparents didn’t immigrate illegally from Bangladesh et al, but they don’t have enough identity documentation to prove their citizenship to the government? (Since we don’t have a draft of the nationwide NRC from GOI, consider the Assam NRC for now, or suggest a better method if needed)

Afaiu, the Foreigners Tribunals will ask the person excluded from the NRC to represent his case and prove (beyond reasonable doubt?) that he is not a foreigner. At least, that’s what I could gather from the Foreigners (Tribunal) Order (haven’t read the Foreigners Act yet).

IMO this is a wrong approach and may generate a lot of false positives. Even few lakhs of false positives would be devastating. A better way to implement the conduct of foreigner tribunals would be if the onus of proving whether someone excluded from the NRC is an infiltrator or not should be on the State. They have vast resources - they can take several steps to get hints and detect suspects and finally prove, as enumerated in this proposal: https://www.mygov.in/newindia/wp-conten ... 887503.pdf (this process would need some Rs. 1 to 5 thousand crores IMO, but is an important cost to ACTUALLY find infiltrators and not deport genuine citizens out of their country).

=====

Also, could you provide the links of the news pieces from where you got to know that some are self-deporting? Self deportations instigated by fear of deportation/jail time would be needed even in the proposal I linked in the previous para.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 28 Apr 2021 04:14

So why are we discussing demographics in this thread?
I plan to close it after 10 May to allow enough discussion and accommodate late latifs.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 28 Apr 2021 06:54

ramana wrote:So why are we discussing demographics in this thread?
I plan to close it after 10 May to allow enough discussion and accommodate late latifs.

You are right, Ramana-garu. Do you mind if a thread on demographics of India is opened? I think demographics needs to be studied, both for the effects they have on polity and on other security aspects. If you think it is okay, we should have a thread dedicated to Indian, subcontinental and Burmese demographics [all of them affect our security too].

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 28 Apr 2021 10:46

BJP will lose onlee.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 28 Apr 2021 11:00

Yes but do it scientifically from first principles.
Explain population pyramid, and impact of aging and changes in the groups.

AshishA · Post by **AshishA** » 28 Apr 2021 18:19

At what time will the exit polls come out tomorrow?

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 28 Apr 2021 20:26

EC issues COVID-19 Counting Protocol for May 2

Candidates & polling agents have to mandatorily test -be for COVID-19

No public gathering outside counting centres

Counting centres & boxes carrying EVMs to be disinfected

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 28 Apr 2021 20:44

AshishA wrote:At what time will the exit polls come out tomorrow?

Immediately after voting closes. Probably at 6:01 PM IST

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 28 Apr 2021 20:50

chetak wrote:EC issues

Counting centres & boxes carrying EVMs to be disinfected

Hi Yella ALL Mudi PLan!!!

All machines and the personnel manning machines now will be infected and/or corrupted!!

SC and Hizz Honors to take note!!!
We need video evidence

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 29 Apr 2021 00:31

Sri Shafiqul Islam should be provided with personal physical security immediately.

TMC is now going whole hog against him.
A particular TMC WA group ("TMC Arambagh Lok Sabha WA Group") is now spreading canards against him:
1. He is a BJP agent
2. He has taken huge amount of money from BJP
3. BJP has gifted him a flat (apartment)
4. Earlier he used to do CPM, then TMC, and now with BJP
5. He is a black-sheep of the Muslim community
6. He is a good for nothing person
7. He has insulted the CM (Mumtaz Banoo) repeatedly
8. He never uttered a word anything helping Pakistan
9. He never uttered a word when his brethren were under threat
10. He never uttered a single word against NRC
11. He needs to be eliminated after May 2nd, and a Fatwa needs to be issued to that effect.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 29 Apr 2021 00:33

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agXJ4sal7w0
^^^
Sri Shariqul Islam is addressing the allegations against him by TMC

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 29 Apr 2021 00:36

Sri Shafiqul Islam is exposing how TMC is brainwashing muslims in Murshidabad district using CAA, NRC, etc.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ro6v5a9O0ac

This has caused a mass hysteria against him among a large segment of the Muslims in South Bengal.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 29 Apr 2021 00:41

This particular youtube broadcast has caused too much consternation in TMC against Sri Shafiqul Islam. The reason?

Sri Shafiqul Islam has come out in open support of CAA and NRC, and justifying that as a citizen of India he must and should support CAA+NRC. He then gives a call to the Muslims living in bordering districts who have been living there for generations not to fear CAA and NRC. He then goes one more step further saying that those who have entered illegally must be deported as they are a threat to India.

Here is the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgX9PnYkGv8

Sri Shafiqul Islam needs to be supported wholeheartedly. People like him needs to be given all the support to fight the jihadi menace.

Ankit Desai · Post by **Ankit Desai** » 29 Apr 2021 06:39

Vips wrote:
AshishA wrote:At what time will the exit polls come out tomorrow?
Immediately after voting closes. Probably at 6:01 PM IST

Financial Express - According to the EC, the exit polls can be published after 7.30 pm tomorrow.

-Ankit

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 29 Apr 2021 11:10

Kati wrote:This particular youtube broadcast has caused too much consternation in TMC against Sri Shafiqul Islam. The reason?

Sri Shafiqul Islam has come out in open support of CAA and NRC, and justifying that as a citizen of India he must and should support CAA+NRC. He then gives a call to the Muslims living in bordering districts who have been living there for generations not to fear CAA and NRC. He then goes one more step further saying that those who have entered illegally must be deported as they are a threat to India.

Here is the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgX9PnYkGv8

Sri Shafiqul Islam needs to be supported wholeheartedly. People like him needs to be given all the support to fight the jihadi menace.

Looks like a great guy who must be given protection. Its rare to find Bharatiya Muslims.

Too bad, many of us cannot follow Bengali speeches

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 29 Apr 2021 11:32

TMC is desperate in Phase-8. They are using muscle-power to jam the booths, and intimidating the agents of the candidates. Lot of disturbances from booth after booths which was not there in the previous seven phases.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 29 Apr 2021 11:33

Republic-Bangla will give exit poll sharp at 5pm (IST).

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 29 Apr 2021 11:51

On Sri Shafiqul Islam (last year's reporting by OpIndia on his arrest):
https://www.opindia.com/2020/07/arambag ... on-expose/

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 29 Apr 2021 20:01

Republic TV exit poll is giving BJP 138-148, TMC 128-138 in West Bengal.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 29 Apr 2021 20:01

Ejjit bolls have predicted nothing very surprising.

NDA in WB, AS, PD
DMK back in TN
Commies continuing in KL...some chance of a fractured verdict

shravanp · Post by **shravanp** » 29 Apr 2021 20:04

Kakkaji wrote:Republic TV exit poll is giving BJP 138-148, TMC 128-138 in West Bengal.

Except for Republic TV, all the other exit polls are giving higher number for TMC. However one thing is for sure, that BJP will improve its tally significantly. I wish they win, but then you never know. Waiting for T.Chanakya's exit polls.

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 29 Apr 2021 20:12

Mamata would be Ruthless in her post poll cleanup of any semblance of Hindutva in Bengal, if those exit polls are correct. What would be the consequences of other NDA state units? Especially on MVA ?

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 29 Apr 2021 20:28

Chintamani: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQSbFcF357M

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 29 Apr 2021 20:31

shravanp wrote:Except for Republic TV, all the other exit polls are giving higher number for TMC.

Which exit polls ? The only one I have heard of is the C-voter guy who is not reliable.

India TV is discussing phase-wise, but it looks like their prediction will be BJP 175+.

As for TN, we must remember exit poll reliability is rather poor. In 2016 the majority of exit polls predicted DMK victory:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Tami ... Exit_polls

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 29 Apr 2021 20:41

Arkaprabha Sarkar, who does an in-depth analysis on behalf of www.prothomkolkata.com and has a good network on the ground says that BJP is expected to come to power with 150 seats. LF has almost withered away.

In any case, Mukul Roy better pull the strings, and bring some more opposition fence-sitters into the BJP fold

shravanp · Post by **shravanp** » 29 Apr 2021 20:52

How can we upload screenshots?

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 29 Apr 2021 20:55

It seems BJP is coming to power in WB. TN is a toss-up. Tomorrow I will write on what needs to be done in Bengal to clean-up the mess.

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 29 Apr 2021 21:02

shravanp wrote:How can we upload screenshots?

Upload it here: https://picc.io/
Copy URL of the image
Paste the URL within img tags.

Like this:

Code: Select all

[img]https://picc.io/p/zzzzzzzz.jpeg[/img]

shravanp · Post by **shravanp** » 29 Apr 2021 21:03

anmol wrote:
shravanp wrote:How can we upload screenshots?

Upload it here: https://picc.io/
Copy URL of the image
Paste the URL within img tags.

Like this:
Code: Select all
[img]https://picc.io/p/zzzzzzzz.jpeg[/img]

Thanks Anmol.

shravanp · Post by **shravanp** » 29 Apr 2021 21:04

(Sorry for the clutter). Looks like its not working. The URL embedded in tag is https://picc.io/p/0XfY9F2.png

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 29 Apr 2021 21:07

Did not work-- link is broken.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 29 Apr 2021 21:11

BJP will lose onlee.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 29 Apr 2021 21:24

The other election to look towards is Tirupati by-polls.

shravanp · Post by **shravanp** » 29 Apr 2021 21:28

From Patil saar

Lot of anxious voices asking for updates on Bengal due to "confusing exit polls" etc

What is there to update? There never was any confusion or doubt at any point of time in Bengal irrespective of what polls are saying, just ignore them

Only the extent of BJP WAVE is a variable!