2021 Five State Elections

[sanjayc]

What options does MAD have now in WB ?
What can they do to cut the Islamists to size?

If Bengali HIndus don't want to cut Islamists down to size (much like Kashmiri Pandits), then why should BJP make the effort? Let them stew in their own juice.

[Prem Kumar]

Modi sarkar, by not deporting 10s of lakhs of illegal Bangladeshis (or at least not putting them in detention camps en route to deportation) ensured that these 10s of lakhs of votes went to TMC. By not being ruthless, they are like Prithwiraj Chauhan again. They have been in power for nearly 7 years

Needless to say, that's not the whole picture. What to say of the lakhs of Hindus who continue to vote for TMC?

[V_Raman]

So Hindus are a race now ?! What are we the new martial race or supers like in incredibles ?!

Overall Hindus have gained. All parties across the spectrum will be aware of Hindu sentiments. As Pandey said in TN - DMK manifesto was like BJP manifesto!

A combined opposition is still formidable in many states. BJP should learn and move on

[AshishA]

Okay can Operation lotus be commenced safely now? Subendu might come in handy. I know it's a tough and near impossible but who knows what will happen?

[Prem Kumar]

In West Bengal there was no split vote. The UPA alliance parties stepped aside to allow a total consolidation behind TMC.
Add to this demographic consolidation on one side and it had been a sweep.

If Hindus consolidate, no sweep can stop them. After decades of Muslim aggression, appeasement & ethnic cleansing, if Hindus still vote for TMC, they deserve their fate.

A similar fate awaits them in TN

[nvishal]

I think bjp and Hindus themselves do not completely understand the meaning of the term "demographic change". I had maintained from the beginning that bjp will never come to power in Kerala or WB. The situation in these states is similar to Latin america and middle-east where locals prefer to migrate(to US and Europe) and then they wish for(and work towards) instability in the host country.

Few months ago, I had taken a pragmatic view and suggested implementing migration restrictions on these states. Within 24 hours some mod with "nair" in his username issued me a warning.

It's like, if I(malayali Hindu) go down, I will take Hindus from others states down with me.

[Kati]

Do not lose hope.
Even if BJP doesn't get the throne in WB, it will be a formidable opposition with more than 100+ seats, from a meager 3 seats.
Important thing is to Mumtaz losing her seat thereby losing the moral high ground.
It appears that the entire minority vote of LF + INC + ISF has gone to TMC. But again let us see till the 10th round.

[Kati]

One good thing is - even in non-minority areas Left has been decimated completely.

The counting appears to be extremely slow as per ECI site.

[Hari Seldon]

BJP will lose onlee.

And we have.

Spectacularly only. Demography == destiny.

Will this lead to a course correction? Will lotus high command realize (and start acting like it) that they receive H and only H votes. All this sabka saath BS doesn't fetch them one extra mainority vote anywhere?

Chalo, at least Asom is saved. Only.

[Prem Kumar]

I hope ..... against hope .... that this election defeat will make BJP realize the destruction wrought by demographic change and go ruthless on NRC & deportation.

But again, the opposition, black-gowns etc will get emboldened by the results and any such move will be virulently opposed. The GOI will make noises but do nothing. That's my fear.

"Incrementalism" has been the bane of Modi sarkar 1 & 2.

[Prem Kumar]

nvIshal: you can make your point without bringing in unnecessary comparisons, that'll only earn you a ban. Edit your post.

[nvishal]

nvIshal: you can make your point without bringing in unnecessary comparisons, that'll only earn you a ban. Edit your post.

Those are accurate comparisons with are well needed but have thus far been avoided because it "hurts the feelings of some members".

Only restricted migration laws can change the destructive attitudes of some castes.

[Supratik]

Do not despair about WB. Both ruling and opposition now believe in the same economic policy i.e. market economy plus welfarism. The challengers are decimated. Good economic activity is happening in WB now and urban, semi-urban people who get to see less communal violence are not very unhappy.
The only issue that remains to be solved in WB is NRC. AS faced a similar situation but has been retrieved partially after several attempts albeit with a flawed NRC. The center now needs to think how it is going to implement NRC in WB. Maybe do it phase-wise where you bypass WB in first phase. Also may be project Shuvendu Adhikary as the CM face as Dilip Ghosh is not getting traction.

[AshishA]

Now the TMC goons will come with a vengeance against BJP karyakartas.

[SRajesh]

Do not lose hope.
Even if BJP doesn't get the throne in WB, it will be a formidable opposition with more than 100+ seats, from a meager 3 seats.
Important thing is to Mumtaz losing her seat thereby losing the moral high ground.
It appears that the entire minority vote of LF + INC + ISF has gone to TMC. But again let us see till the 10th round.

Point is whether it was a tactical voting!!
Remember Pappu and Pappini hardly made WB electioneering
And all this talk of AIMIM and the other Pissful (cant remember his name) was all a double-bluff!!
Concern here is the long term implications:
Like the Punjab of the 700 AD being the doorway for the the 'unwashed hordes' pouring through will WB be such a gateway in next decade!!
An unstable Myanmar and restless BD population ( and a sizable Bihari's still living in the Geneva camps in Dhaka) next five years of Bano rule may change the demographics of WB irreversibly
What would the long term impact on the 'Seven Little Sister's' with these changing demographics and the lizard flexing muscle!!

[Prem Kumar]

Now the TMC karyakartas will come with a vengeance against BJP karyakartas.

And the GOI or even BJP for that matter will do jack to stop the killings. Lets see how many TMC turncoats go back to mothership now.

Another lesson for BJP: this whole business of "not projecting a CM face" backfires in many states. Indians, across states, vote for strong leaders & a visible face. In TN for example, if a Jaya was alive, DMK didn't stand a chance.

So, this whole RSS ideology of not projecting a CM face is stupidity to say the least, considering that even "BJP" is winning only because of Modi's face.

[Neela]

Acutely aware that getting emotional at this point is not going to help.
100s of tweets talking of demographic change.

But.
The +ve side of things is total voteshare for BJP is increasing.
Kerala reaching 11%
TN - was 5% 2016 but will reach 8-10% this time.
WB - will be 20% if not more.

Quick gun reactions seem to be:
We need defections
we need more wielding of dhanda from Centre to rein things.
Gharwapsi must start on a massive massive scale.

Or
Long term plan to build vote base?


Arresting the slide or more grounds up work ...which would you chose?

[Kati]

Okay can Operation lotus be commenced safely now? Subendu might come in handy. I know it's a tough and near impossible but who knows what will happen?

Shuvendu will be the face of BJP's attack on TMC from now on. He will have the moral authority to take the fight to the TMC camp.

[Prem Kumar]

The other interesting thing is this: so many pollsters got it horrendously wrong. Many even predicting a "BJP Sweep"!

That qtiya Prashant Kishor will be the darling of all opposition parties & will make 100s of crores for the foreseeable future

[Kati]

Do not lose hope.
Even if BJP doesn't get the throne in WB, it will be a formidable opposition with more than 100+ seats, from a meager 3 seats.
Important thing is to Mumtaz losing her seat thereby losing the moral high ground.
It appears that the entire minority vote of LF + INC + ISF has gone to TMC. But again let us see till the 10th round.

Point is whether it was a tactical voting!!
Remember Pappu and Pappini hardly made WB electioneering
And all this talk of AIMIM and the other Pissful (cant remember his name) was all a double-bluff!!
Concern here is the long term implications:
Like the Punjab of the 700 AD being the doorway for the the 'unwashed hordes' pouring through will WB be such a gateway in next decade!!
An unstable Myanmar and restless BD population ( and a sizable Bihari's still living in the Geneva camps in Dhaka) next five years of Bano rule may change the demographics of WB irreversibly
What would the long term impact on the 'Seven Little Sister's' with these changing demographics and the lizard flexing muscle!!

Mumtaz Banoo wrote to the Mafia Queen extending an olive branch. For that reason Pappu+Pinky didn't step into WB. I guess that sent a signal to M population to vote for TMC (may be the call was given through Mosques) tactically. However, Left and INC have decimated completely.

If you look at seatwise performance, in half of the seats the differences are still few hundred to low thousands. And the counting is barely at 25% mark. So TMC is still scraping through barely, perhaps with the M vote.

[Supratik]

No any further illegal immigration on a massive scale is probably not going to happen. The reasons are two. Bdesh TFR has fallen below replacement level and their economy is booming. What remains to be done is to send those already inside WB back. If the BJP is not doing well in north bengal and eastern segments including Matua areas it means the whole illegal immigrant vote is now with TMC including the H vote. Probably the campaign by TMC that BJP is going to expel all illegal immigrants played a part in it.

[AshishA]

I was just looking at the EC website. Most of these constituencies have undergone most only 3-7 rounds of voting. Can there be a turn around?

[Supratik]

I meant those already "within India" back.

There are no national security issues left in WB except NRC. The rest is economy and governance issues.

[Kati]

No any further illegal immigration on a massive scale is probably not going to happen. The reasons are two. Bdesh TFR has fallen below replacement level and their economy is booming. What remains to be done is to send those already inside WB back. If the BJP is not doing well in north bengal and eastern segments including Matua areas it means the whole illegal immigrant vote is now with TMC including the H vote. Probably the campaign by TMC that BJP is going to expel all illegal immigrants played a part in it.

It has been well known, and Sri Shafiqul Islam (of Arambagh TV) has been crying hoarse on this issue for some time.

[ritesh]

Now the TMC goons will come with a vengeance against BJP karyakartas.

Are they wearing bangles? Right to save once life is no less imp than right to life itself.

[Kati]

I was just looking at the EC website. Most of these constituencies have undergone most only 3-7 rounds of voting. Can there be a turn around?

On an average, each constituency has around 2 lakh votes. If about 75% vote, then we are talking about 1.5 lakh votes. Yet, the ECI website is showing most of the seat-wise results which have about 25,000 to 35,000 votes counted.

[AshishA]

I was just looking at the EC website. Most of these constituencies have undergone most only 3-7 rounds of voting. Can there be a turn around?

On an average, each constituency has around 2 lakh votes. If about 75% vote, then we are talking about 1.5 lakh votes. Yet, the ECI website is showing most of the seat-wise results which have about 25,000 to 35,000 votes counted.

So isn't it too early to declare defeat?

[ritesh]

I was just looking at the EC website. Most of these constituencies have undergone most only 3-7 rounds of voting. Can there be a turn around?

Well the logic says till half way into rounds nothing is final by 3/4 way it will become difficult to overturn. Lets patiently wait.

[Kati]

Already, TMC goons are attacking BJP office in Hastings ignoring all EC's directives and without wearing masks. Police is standing inactive.

[Kati]

As per ECI website, at Nandigram, Mumtaz Banoo is trailing by less than 4000.

[Supratik]

Why all this rona-dhona? Massive change has taken place in WB. Remember this state had Left as ruling party and INC as opposition party. Doomsday scenario. Now it has pro-Hindu parties. The TMC is run by the Hindus previously in INC.

[Kati]

Whatevervotes BJP is getting is perhaps not fully due to its success. It has to do with RSS' strong ground work done in the last ten years, especially in North Bengal where its grassroot level work has been stellar.

[Kati]

Why all this rona-dhona? Massive change has taken place in WB. Remember this state had Left as ruling party and INC as opposition party. Doomsday scenario. Now it has pro-Hindu parties. The TMC is run by the Hindus previously in INC.

That's my thinking too - from 3 seats to 100 seats. Now BJP is here to stay permanently, and the Left has been decimated thoroughly. Looks like their vote share has dropped below 3%.

[Kati]

First BJP seat has gone to Shankar Ghosh at Siliguri AC (heart of North Bengal). Another party changer, he came from CPM, and defeated his mentor CPM's old timer Ashok Bhattacharya.

[hnair]

Within 24 hours some mod with "nair" in his username issued me a warning.

My apologies for the delay last time. Better luck elsewhere with your loony ideas

Folks, this election is happening under Covid shadow. Shaming any state and its voters for not living upto your expectations is not productive. Incremental gains like today’s matter in the long run.

[Shanmukh]

In West Bengal there was no split vote. The UPA alliance parties stepped aside to allow a total consolidation behind TMC.
Add to this demographic consolidation on one side and it had been a sweep.

If Hindus consolidate, no sweep can stop them. After decades of Muslim aggression, appeasement & ethnic cleansing, if Hindus still vote for TMC, they deserve their fate.

A similar fate awaits them in TN

You are being needlessly emotional, saar. The problem in Bengal was that the BJP had no good local leader. The Bengali Hindus voted for Modi in LS because a) they trusted him b) the BJP could find good candidates for 42 seats.

The second problem of the BJP is their poor candidates. They still don't have 294 good candidates to field. If you are fielding Swapan Dasgupta in Tarakeswar or Anirban Ganguly in Bolpur, then you are going to come a cropper. How many times did Swapan visit Tarakeswar or Anrban Bolpur? How many people know them there? What are their contributions in Tarakeswar or Bolpur? Still, they got tickets.

The third answer is their poor strength in urban slums. The BJP's weakness here [this was old Congress territory, with CPM getting some vote] has cost it big, since they cannot command the urban slum vote. This segment has voted massively in favour of TMC, with the local dadas getting them big time. BJP doesn't even exist in this segment.

The fourth problem is that Mamata's rural melas are quite popular. Sure, there are many cases where her party thugs have extorted beyond acceptance, but it is not the norm. A significant section of the rural Hindu vote is still with Mamata.

Fifth problem was that the Congress and the Left wiped themselves out to benefit Mamata. The Congress+Left, which had ~12-13% vote in LS has come down to ~5%. The extra 8%, which accrued to Mamata, especially in the areas where they could make a difference is propelling Mamata past the post in many seats.

Finally, the Naxals have gone and voted for the TMC this time. This is why the TMC has won big in the Jangal Mahal area. This area was swept by the BJP in the LS polls, when the Naxals didn't care to choose so much between the TMC and the BJP.

What are the big lessons in all this?
a) Hindutva needs to be connected to the people at the local level. It is not enough to do hand-waving from a distance.
b) BJP's organisational strength in Bengal is still not really on par with Mamata's. Organisation matters.
c) BJP in Bengal is not yet at the point where it can destroy a combined opposition. This has been achieved in Assam, and will be in Bengal in 5 more years, provided they focus.
d) Wearing saffron at election time is NOT sufficient. BJP is NOT entitled to Hindu vote. BJP needs to earn it, through connections to the people.

I had warned long ago that if BJP didn't implement the CAA and give citizenship to the Bengali Hindu refugees, they wouldn't get the refugee vote. Looks like my prediction was correct.

[Supratik]

Regarding Assam. A combined M vote has not been able to defeat the BJP. This was achieved after several rounds of elections. In AS the only thing that is left to do is to complete a reliable second round of NRC along with national NRC and get the Hs to go for counter demographic mobilization. For this jobs need to be created and economy needs to boom. The latter has been a not so great success for the AS NDA.

[Kati]

Now this is a shocker:
After 11 rounds, Mumtaz banoo is ahead by 3327 votes at Nandigram.

[sanjayc]

a) Hindutva needs to be connected to the people at the local level. It is not enough to do hand-waving from a distance.
b) BJP's organisational strength in Bengal is still not really on par with Mamata's. Organisation matters.
c) BJP in Bengal is not yet at the point where it can destroy a combined opposition. This has been achieved in Assam, and will be in Bengal in 5 more years, provided they focus.
d) Wearing saffron at election time is NOT sufficient. BJP is NOT entitled to Hindu vote. BJP needs to earn it, through connections to the people.

I had warned long ago that if BJP didn't implement the CAA and give citizenship to the Bengali Hindu refugees, they wouldn't get the refugee vote. Looks like my prediction was correct.

^^ Seems like Hindus in Bengal have really set high standards for BJP to be accepted. They are like a woman who will require the successful, handsome bachelor in the neighbourhood to break his back in trying to woo her, or she will elope with the beggar next door.

[Supratik]

By reliable second round in Assam I mean just get an org like UIDAI to reverify the database.