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Shanmukh wrote:
a) Hindutva needs to be connected to the people at the local level. It is not enough to do hand-waving from a distance.
b) BJP's organisational strength in Bengal is still not really on par with Mamata's. Organisation matters.
c) BJP in Bengal is not yet at the point where it can destroy a combined opposition. This has been achieved in Assam, and will be in Bengal in 5 more years, provided they focus.
d) Wearing saffron at election time is NOT sufficient. BJP is NOT entitled to Hindu vote. BJP needs to earn it, through connections to the people.
I had warned long ago that if BJP didn't implement the CAA and give citizenship to the Bengali Hindu refugees, they wouldn't get the refugee vote. Looks like my prediction was correct.
^^ Seems like Hindus in Bengal have really set high standards for BJP to be accepted. They are like a woman who will require the successful, handsome bachelor in the neighbourhood to break his back in trying to woo her, or she will elope with the beggar next door.
BJP wants the Hindu Bengali vote, not the other way round. Hindus in Bengal are NOT insecure. They still constitute 70%+ of the population, and the Muslim TFR is falling quickly. Your abusing Hindus is useful for relieving your bile, but otherwise a useless rant.
There is a reason why I don't post on this thread generally and it is because I don't have time to waste on useless rants.
BJP could not put a charismatic leader as future CM in front of Mamata in WB. We all know how much clout the CM post holds in a state. CM is the maai + baap in any sarkar. So for the voter they have a known personality Mamata vs "who?!!" .
You need to polarise the election to draw voters to your pole, like a magnet. Leaders from Delhi flying in cannot replace the need for a strong state level leader to rally around. The absence of a recognisable and respected face that inspires confidence and hope as future leader has made the undecided swing voters favour a known devil. This possibly explains why the winning margins are quite narrow in many seats in WB.
I wonder why BJP failed to see this, having benefited from the same phenomenon a year ago at the center. BJP had a strong leader in NaMo whereas the opposition has no one credible. Cong put up RaGa who had to contest from 2 seats to ensure he'll pass to get into Lok Sabha. Modi pole of the magnet drew his supporters anyway, but also swing voters to him which gave him a large majority of seats and votes.
BJP's base in WB is itself a work in progress, and had no levers/leaders to attract swing voters and cash in on the anti-incumbency factor. One need not be a guru to or PK to understand this.
Hope BJP learns from this earnestly and goes about creating leaders for the future un WB and also TS, AP... and improves it "Hindi belt party" image.
Republic TV showing : 200+ for TMC and sub 100 for BJP
My respect for PK has increased many folds now. He had said if BJP gets 100 seats, he will resign. Even though is is planning to move else where he retains the high moral ground now.
From this election looks like Congis have decided to destroy all of their state units in favour of regional parties. Transfer of vote from all parties to one opposition party capable of stopping BJP. This will be their strategy in 2024.
Relax guys, it is only counting the early rounds. Even in a worst-case scenario, writing is on the walls that Bano is losing her grip on WB if not losing her power.
Shanmukh wrote:BJP wants the Hindu Bengali vote, not the other way round. Hindus in Bengal are NOT insecure. They still constitute 70%+ of the population, and the Muslim TFR is falling quickly. Your abusing Hindus is useful for relieving your bile, but otherwise a useless rant.
There is a reason why I don't post on this thread generally and it is because I don't have time to waste on useless rants.
Kashmiri Pandits were feeling quite secure too till 1990. Please do check the demography of border districts of Bengal. If BJP wants the Hindu Bengali vote, not the other way round, then HIndu Bengalils will do a huge favour to India if they stop taking the first train out of Bengal to look for a job in BJP ruled states.
Shanmukh wrote:BJP wants the Hindu Bengali vote, not the other way round. Hindus in Bengal are NOT insecure. They still constitute 70%+ of the population, and the Muslim TFR is falling quickly. Your abusing Hindus is useful for relieving your bile, but otherwise a useless rant.
There is a reason why I don't post on this thread generally and it is because I don't have time to waste on useless rants.
Kashmiri Pandits were feeling quite secure too till 1990. Please do check the demography of border districts of Bengal. If BJP wants the Hindu Bengali vote, not the other way round, then HIndu Bengalils will do a huge favour to India if they stop taking the first train out of Bengal to look for a job in BJP ruled states.
Kashmiri Pandits were 4-5% of the population of the Kashmir valley. Hindus are 73% of Bengal. Comprehend the difference? As for the border districts, only one - Murshidabad - is ~66% Muslim. So, your comparison is ill-founded. Please do study the demographics before proferring an opinion?
BTW, this country was founded on the idea that anyone could settle anywhere. Shall we say - north Indians should not be coming to south Indian states looking for jobs? Please don't say les betises. It is lamentable.
Last edited by Shanmukh on 02 May 2021 15:31, edited 1 time in total.
More ground work is necessary in WB especially in urban and semi-urban areas. BJP is a recent phenomenon in WB. Only in 2019 they became a force- less than 2 years.
+ve news in all this : Congress slide continues. In Kerala. In WB. in Assam.
Pawar and Duckriwal rushing to congratulate begum . Means Queen mother and Pappu are now Tier 3 player.
They aren#t the glue that binds the opposition anymore.
Clever sympathisers in executive and judiciary will at least now see the inevitable & will start switching into regional satraps and hide behind them. Their hold on any assets influencing Centre will diminish.
And between Stalin Pawar Begum and LDF in Kerala...the only thing that unites them is being anti-Modi. Thats it. Not enough for the long term.
Last edited by Neela on 02 May 2021 15:35, edited 1 time in total.
@Ramana Sir, better lock this thread tomorrow evening IST. We are going into areas which may attract some serious and unwanted attention due to which we had to close the GDF.
Yagnasri wrote:@Ramana Sir, better lock this thread tomorrow evening IST. We are going into areas which may attract some serious and unwanted attention due to which we had to close the GDF.
Neela wrote:+ve news in all this : Congress slide continues. In Kerala. In WB. in Assam.
Pawar and Duckriwal rushing to congratulate begum . Means Queen mother and Pappu are now Tier 3 player.
They aren#t the glue that binds the opposition anymore.
Had seen a interview of Congress leader Abhijit Mukherjee and Son of ex president Pranab Mukherjee. He had said the biggest reason you do not see enough congress supporters (he had just 5-6 of his old and middle aged friends in a run down office) was lack of funds. He said the AICC central leadership is simply not able to release funds for an effective campaign.
If Congress loses Rajasthan and Punjab before the next Lok Sabha elections then it will not have money to be able to put up any semblance of a fight and even support the campaign of its trusted chamchas (losers). The limited money will be used only for the Maino/Vadra campaigns.
With Mamta winning in West Bengal, the chances of Vasooli govt falling in Maharashtra has gone down though
Another big positive of TMC winning in Bengal is there will be leaders in other states who will think a win against BJP/Modi is possible even in a multi cornered contests. Had BJP won against TMC the opposition would have all come together against BJP in the 2024, will now thankfully not happen.
Seems like Rahul Gandhi is key to BJP winning elections. BJP should engage or talk about him more, build him up more. Stronger Rahul means even more stronger Modi...
For BJP now, it is case of when it rains, it pours. The immediate effect could be seen in coalition parters, be it both JDU or JJP. Both governments could "collapse".
If there were any doubts, today’s CNN US edition landing page on India, PM Modi and the 2nd wave should clear it. The gauntlet is shifting from Godhra to Pandemic. The election results aren’t helping either.
Yagnasri wrote:@Ramana Sir, better lock this thread tomorrow evening IST. We are going into areas which may attract some serious and unwanted attention due to which we had to close the GDF.
What was GDF and why did it have to close?
It is a painful story. Blessed to not to go there. It is forbidden cave that was locked and keys were thrown in Hind Mahasagar.
kit wrote:I still hold on to my position that the elections should have been postponed and a national lockdown should have been in effect .
Seem to be a lone voice here , but anyway
I have huge respect and am an avid supporter for Modi., but having an election at this time was to prioritize politics over human lives.
when to hold elections is not the PM decision, it is the EC decision.
Indeed , the general opinion and media outside India is harping on that Modi let the pandemic spread by holding elections., its all optics., and it is bad
People who are harping about Congress losing don’t realize that the entire opposition is actually a manifestation of what Congress stands for. The new congress since 2004 does not mind cannibalizing itself for these other parties that fulfill the goals of the new Congress leadership and external forces.
I don’t see AAP, new Shiv Sena, DmK, Jagan, TMC even CPI as Different from Congress.
These are all regional powers that global forces want to interact with individually to weaken the Indian nation.
There is no need to celebrate the loss of Congress. The new Congress is not concerned with their existing seats.
