2021 Five State Elections

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 02 May 2021 17:46

In the states of Bengal and Kerala the political violence against BJP karyakartas will be terrible. I am really worried about the condition of Karyakartas.
Since the BJP has already been labeled fascist, a message needs to go out that any violence against Karyakartas will be met with 370. Alternately, BJP Karyakartas need to pick up the sticks just like the workers of TMC and CPI. Without that we will have blood bath.

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 02 May 2021 17:47

^^^consider this for optics :
1. runaway second wave
2. Butt and others full force from 'Crematoria@
3. Kumbh with last day witnessing 70 lakhs+
4. elections with loosing WB
5. Evangelist/Jihadi media with a constant barrage of 02 lack or their of
6. Streetside patients with 02 cylinder and lack of hospital bed
7.Unkil refusing to send much needed supplies
This election would have been neck to neck had not the last days done as it has with a runaway second wave. I feel this alone has turned the sitting on the fence types to turn away from BJP
NM/AS have made some miscalculation and they will need a course correction
Elections done and lost nows the time to fight this on a war footing and regain the public support
Or this will lead to many satraps kichdi for 2024. Unless Lizard and Eleven Gin have a brain-fade and start a WW3

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 02 May 2021 17:51

BJP did not lose in Bengal because of COVID. It was a combination of opposition uniting to prevent division of votes, minority consolidation and women vote. They also don’t have a strong regional leader like Biswa.

Tamil Nadu is anti incumbency.

Kerala, unless you stem the political violence against BJP and Hindus you cannot change the DNA.

I am worried about UP where you will actually see the effect of COVID.

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 02 May 2021 17:53

Jarita wrote:In the states of Bengal and Kerala the political violence against BJP karyakartas will be terrible. I am really worried about the condition of Karyakartas.
Since the BJP has already been labeled fascist, a message needs to go out that any violence against Karyakartas will be met with 370. Alternately, BJP Karyakartas need to pick up the sticks just like the workers of TMC and CPI. Without that we will have blood bath.

The main problem is the refusal of common Hindus to support people / parties who are working for Hindu interests. As a result, those people get isolated at critical moments, and then easily culled by hostile forces. Due to this, people think ten times before sticking their neck out for Hindus as they know they will be abandoned and left to fend for themselves. I have seen many such cases. Far from supporting, common Hindus actively mock and ridicule those working for Hindu interests, or set extremely high standards for their acceptance. And the poor leaders have to keep performing, like in a circus, to keep common Hindus entertained and take their approval. The same Hindus grovel before Christian or Muslim leaders like Sonia Gandhi or Hindu haters like Nehru or Gandhi or Mamata or Jagan Reddy or Stalin. This is really the sign of a dying race.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 02 May 2021 18:02

kit wrote:
Aditya_V wrote:
when to hold elections is not the PM decision, it is the EC decision.
Indeed , the general opinion and media outside India is harping on that Modi let the pandemic spread by holding elections., its all optics., and it is bad

When has the optics ever been good? Especially for Modi?

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 02 May 2021 18:03

Jarita wrote:People who are harping about Congress losing don’t realize that the entire opposition is actually a manifestation of what Congress stands for. The new congress since 2004 does not mind cannibalizing itself for these other parties that fulfill the goals of the new Congress leadership and external forces.
I don’t see AAP, new Shiv Sena, DmK, Jagan, TMC even CPI as Different from Congress.
These are all regional powers that global forces want to interact with individually to weaken the Indian nation.
There is no need to celebrate the loss of Congress. The new Congress is not concerned with their existing seats.

Exactly. Sab mile jhule hain. This is what has kept me depressed all day today. A hydra is an apt description of this phenomenon.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 02 May 2021 18:04

I would not excuse the BJP in this. And frankly beyond the top crew the rest of them in Bengal ride on the leaderships coattails.
Add to it, the new strategy of the opposition to unite and not split the votes. This will be the way forward. There will be a one to one.
That is why stop celebrating Congress loss. The anti nationals have won in Bengal. They will take different forms like a hydra headed monster.

Instead of dwelling on the loss, BJP must focus on protecting the Karyakartas. There is nothing more important than this in Bengal. Peaceful counter does not work. First thing is protect your people. Quit with the RSS mentality of pleasing everyone. Protect the Workers. Show the power.

The second laser focus must be on UP. Micro strategy has to be adopted in UP.

Sicanta · Post by **Sicanta** » 02 May 2021 18:17

Another thing is that after starting cases in scams, etc , you cant dither and delay the logical conclusion for long in case after case. Soon enough, it starts to seem that there is a political angle to it and less about scam, if any, itself. One can crow all about the ongoing cases in election speeches and its all for naught.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 02 May 2021 18:20

Looks like today will not be a very happy day for BJP supporters

. In West Bengal looks like all BJP internal analysis was way off the mark. In Kerala too BJP came down to a seat count of 0 (from the earlier count of 1). Assam win is a saving grade and Pondicherry is a very small UT.

The election strategies are indeed changing, and looks like new battles would be BJP v/s the rest (Congress, regional parties and commie riff-raffs). The non-BJP parties have already found ways to scuttle the working of a central government with brutal majority. Broker-terrorist gang protest, or states causing their own mischiefs when handling COVID situation are all pointers on what lies ahead.

For Break India Forces too, they really are not bothered on who is scoring points; provided their ultimate aim is achieved. BJP its other Sangh Parivar concerns will have to go back to the drawing boards so that in national level elections such rout does not happen.

Sicanta wrote:Another thing is that after starting cases in scams, etc , you cant dither and delay the logical conclusion for long in case after case.

This has been a major fault of the BJP. Take for example National Herald case. The prosecuting agencies are all under GoI. Why are they not pushing for appeals and a quick trial in the case? The courts may take their own time, but a dedicated prosecution team can at least push forward and take the case to its conclusion. With further delays this scam too would be just shown as a case of political vandetta. Many of the BJP leadership have actually brought in embarrassment when they are clearly proven to milking a situation (rather than bring in solace). Even in Sabari Mala case in KL, one BJP leader opined that it was a golden opportunity (to seek votes for BJP, rather than protecting a Hindu temple).

Sicanta · Post by **Sicanta** » 02 May 2021 18:35

[quote="Sachin"

The election strategies are indeed changing, and looks like new battles would be BJP v/s the rest (Congress, regional parties and commie riff-raffs). The non-BJP parties have already found ways to scuttle the working of a central government with brutal majority. Broker-terrorist gang protest, or states causing their own mischiefs when handling COVID situation are all pointers on what lies ahead.

[/quote]

Going back to drawing board can wait. Need to take control of situation regarding covid and get things done. Leaving 18-44 vaccination onto states may seem like a good step to force some responsibility onto states but the muck up will always be laid down on modi's doorsteps. No one cares about centre-state-concurrent list when the lives of the near and dear ones are on line. And maybe the centre should not too given the extra-ordinary situation.

And as far as economy is concerned, if the centre feels that dividing psu into strategic-non strategic sector and selling the latter is the best course of action to remove the shackles from the economy, just move ahead. Its been so many years now and they have failed to sell Air India. No one is going to put down his own money into the pot unless the gov conveys its seriousness.

Dileep · Post by **Dileep** » 02 May 2021 18:38

As of today, my attitude towards the LDF Govt's activities with respect to Temples, especially to Sabarimala, takes a U turn.

I will not object / protest / act against any activity done by the continuing Pinarayi govt. I am going completely indifferent.

I will take the popular verdict today over any 'deva prashnam*' to indicate 'deva hitham'.

A character in 'Dharmaraja' said about Tipu destroying temples: "They aren't deities, who is not capable to protect their own abode"

*deva prashnam: the recognized method of 'knowing the opinion of the diety' is a ritual done by several astrologers, who debate and reach consensus.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 02 May 2021 18:42

Jarita wrote:In the states of Bengal and Kerala the political violence against BJP karyakartas will be terrible. I am really worried about the condition of Karyakartas.
Since the BJP has already been labeled fascist, a message needs to go out that any violence against Karyakartas will be met with 370. Alternately, BJP Karyakartas need to pick up the sticks just like the workers of TMC and CPI. Without that we will have blood bath.

In addition to Karyakartas, TMC goons (green tiddi) will go after the communities which tilted towards BJP, based on voting data. There is real risk of 90s-like pandit violence against hindus, plus a border state.

But, I see only positives here. TMC won but the leadership clearly sees its voter base is eroding. TMC should be worried, very worried. BJP went from fringe party to second largest party. It is a huge deal. Poll prediction are useless anyways. Not a single poll predictor has the b@lls to win a panchayat election. And, even in places where they lost by small margin, you have people putting this hopes/dreams in BJP rule. Not a small deal. Fatanstic outcome. Only reason to go in even big in the state, work for people, and call out TMC on all wrongs. Ask Smiti Irani who lost in Amethi first time, she doubled down. Very optimistic about the future of BJP in Bengal

AshishA · Post by **AshishA** » 02 May 2021 18:46

What is horrifying for me is that since BJP and it's supporters have been labeled fascist, any kind of violence or crime will be acceptable against them. It's the exact kind of dehumanizing that happened in Germany against Jews. And the targeting of Jews was cheered on by regular Germans. And the same kind of glee you can see in Islamists, leftists and other BIF guys and international media these days.

For now, everything else can wait. Now it's time for BJP to protect it's karyakartas and the karyakartas to protect themselves. And not only across bengal but across all opposition ruled states.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 02 May 2021 18:52

EC Now says Suvendu has Won by 1622 Votes .

S_Madhukar · Post by **S_Madhukar** » 02 May 2021 18:55

The only way things will change in these states is when other BJP-ruled states develop economically long-term and conquer covid in the short-term. Also it is right that BJP gets a chance to develop its base and cadre in WB before getting CMship... otherwise it would be too easy and lead to complacency. They have to develop secondary leadership first. Let BIF rule in WB, KL etc for now afterall they have been hardcore commie for ages, must be something in the water... Covid isn't done with its spread yet there is more work to be done with this menace first and the centre now needs to double down on all nationwide efforts...

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 02 May 2021 18:59

Shivraj Singh Chauhan seems to be loosing his grip in MP. He has lost the bypoll by a large margin.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 02 May 2021 18:59

sooraj wrote:EC Now says Suvendu has Won by 1622 Votes .

and now, the violence will start.

the results will be questioned on the streets.

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 02 May 2021 19:12

Supratik wrote:Shivraj Singh Chauhan seems to be loosing his grip in MP. He has lost the bypoll by a large margin.

He was already losing his grip. He has lost his charm and is turning out to be hugely unpopular in his 4th term. He needs to be replaced soon, preferably by scindia. Else the state is lost.

Shaktimaan · Post by **Shaktimaan** » 02 May 2021 19:15

So latest news coming in is that Didi lost in Nandigram by about 1900 votes...

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 02 May 2021 19:24

S_Madhukar wrote:The only way things will change in these states is when other BJP-ruled states develop economically long-term and conquer covid in the short-term. Also it is right that BJP gets a chance to develop its base and cadre in WB before getting CMship... otherwise it would be too easy and lead to complacency. They have to develop secondary leadership first. Let BIF r in ule in WB, KL etc for now afterall they have been hardcore commie for ages, must be something in the water... Covid isn't done with its spread yet there is more work to be done with this menace first and the centre now needs to double down on all nationwide efforts...

Sorry but western style economic development will not win BJP votes. I know that the close advisors are giving these ideas that building 1000 lane highways will get them votes. That’s not going to happen. Every part of India does not value the so called development model of the BJP. If that was the case the TMC and CPI and co would not be sitting pretty. The so called casino style development in Uttarakhand has led BJP down the abyss.
This sounds like Vaypayees India shining which lost India. The BJP needs a state specific strategy. In some states the civilizational aspect needs more investment than 1000 lane Gadkari highways. It’s not one size fits all. I fear that this advise will call Yogi to be hurt as well. It hurt in the forest states for sure. And in the north east the selling points are different.

I had outlined what has happened in West Bengal. Yes people want basic development but this is a densely populated agrarian state with strong strong ideological moorings. A district wise focus would have been much superior. First off, show that come what may, your Karyakartas Will be safe. You cannot rule Bengal without street power. None of the remote RSS monitoring will work.

Suvendu Adhikari must be made the opposition leader in WB. Not someone based on RSS leadership diktat. The games people like Gadkari are playing are with the blessings of the top leadership. I hope they make the local strongman Adhikari the opposition leader in WB and let him recruit his own local folks from the Karyakartas pool.
People have no clue how terrible the Nagpur manipulation has been WB. Right from bad advise and bad feedback (build 1000 lane highways, one size fits all, last minute recruits who are glamorous). People who know Varghese, know what I am talking about. They have not let the BJP Karyakartas grow.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 02 May 2021 19:25

Shanmukh wrote:BJP is trailing in Belagavi in Karnataka in the by-election. This, BTW, was a BJP stronghold since the the late 1990s.

Mangala Angadi of BJP, widow of Suresh Angadi, scrapped through against the INC candidate. In MP, Damoh seat was with INC before bye elections and looks like INC will retain it by a large margin. In RJ too both seats where INC is handsomely winning are the seats they had won in 2018.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 02 May 2021 19:34

Supratik wrote:Shivraj Singh Chauhan seems to be loosing his grip in MP. He has lost the bypoll by a large margin.

Damoh constituency was with INC before the bye-elections and they are retaining it handsomely .

AkshaySG · Post by **AkshaySG** » 02 May 2021 19:49

Dunno whether to laugh or be sad reading the previous pages of this thread

Such confident seat predictions after each phase and high totals for BJP in each of them , Need to re-evaluate the sources and their trustworthiness as well .

Election polling is never fully accurate but a sub 100 total is a significant dip from predictions

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 02 May 2021 19:55

<admin edit> Nonsense deleted</admin edit>

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 02 May 2021 20:03

Dileep wrote:As of today, my attitude towards the LDF Govt's activities with respect to Temples, especially to Sabarimala, takes a U turn

The truth is that every body milked the issue at the temple and abused the faith of Ayyappa devotees. But my gut feeling says that commies will not mess up in Sabari Mala temple any more (as the verdict itself is now stayed). But rest assured; temple donations received by all major Hindu temples would be now up for grabs. Guruvayur Temple Devaswom board donating devotee's money to relief fund was just a sample doze. That would be the norm going forward. Especially when it is time to repay the loans taken by the current regime.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 02 May 2021 20:07

The Christian party in NDA has won the lone seat in KL.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 02 May 2021 20:14

sanjayc wrote:
Jarita wrote:Sorry but western style economic development will not win BJP votes. I know that the close advisors are giving these ideas that building 1000 lane highways will get them votes. That’s not going to happen. Every part of India does not value the so called development model of the BJP. If that was the case the TMC and CPI and co would not be sitting pretty. The so called casino style development in Uttarakhand has led BJP down the abyss.
This sounds like Vaypayees India shining which lost India. The BJP needs a state specific strategy. In some states the civilizational aspect needs more investment than 1000 lane Gadkari highways. It’s not one size fits all. I fear that this advise will call Yogi to be hurt as well. It hurt in the forest states for sure. And in the north east the selling points are different.
Hindus in many states suffer from deep inferiority complex about themselves (hence their preference for anti-Hindu parties). The only way BJP can win in Kerala, Bengal and TN is if it starts abusing Hinduism, offers reservations to Muslims and Christians, burn copies of Manusmriti, hold beef parties, talk about razing temples to build toilets, and say that Muslims have the first right over everything and Hindus come last. Kerala, Bong and Tamil Hindus will suddenly start loving BJP and vote for it in droves thinking, "My God, these people too have found the truth about us -- that we are full of shit. BJP has also realized that. This means they have evolved and now know the truth about us. We must reward BJP now so that it can purge us of our shit." However, in states where Hindus have pride, like Gujarat, this strategy will backfire as Hindus will break BJP's teeth. This is the difference between behavior of people with low self esteem and high self esteem. BJP needs to tailor its behavior accordingly -- abuse Hindus in Kerala, TN and Bengal (who expect to be abused and exploited as they realize they are full of shit) and praise the glory of Hinduism in Gujarat, MP, etc. (where people not will take any shit about their religion and culture).

Mods: Please step in. Is this the kind of discourse about ethnicities that we encourage in this BRF? So, if a state fails to vote in BJP, they are `full of shit',

SanjayC - you are upset about a BJP defeat. But mind your language. Look into the BJP for why it lost, not into the states as to why they don't vote BJP. Reasons for why the BJP lost are in the BJP, not in the people, who are as dhaarmic as the people of any other states.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 02 May 2021 20:14

Credit is due where it is due, hats off to Prashant Kishore for pulling off a stunning victory in WB and correctly predicting BJP wont come anywhere close to 3 digit mark. Dr Pravin Patil did say that there's no question of victory its just gauging the size of the wave, he just failed to tell us which party's wave it is !

We shouldn't be too surprised really. In 2018 round of elections everyone thought BJP would have it easy in MP, KAR and even the notoriously cyclical RJ but BJP fell short in all the states. In fact the 2021 assembly elections almost look like a repeat of 2018 elections. That said this is like a 1989 moment for BJP where they won 85 seats in that year's general elections from a mere 3 seats before and have never looked back since. So BJP must not be dejected, protect its cadres and build the party behind a strong local leader. I am 100% sure that many opportunist turncoats who joined BJP enmasse from TMC in the last 12 months will now hurry back to TMC, so those who stay back needs to be honed, supported and protected so they live on to fight for another day.

Somewhere after 2014 elections, when BJP began forming governments in states where it had either never been in government or had been a minority partner they found it beneficial to fight on Modi and Shah's name alone and then select a CM after winning. They did it in Haryana, they did it in Maharashtra, they did it UP. They should have realized that it is quite a gamble especially after seeing the rout in 2018 that assembly elections are a different beast compared to general elections and they cannot always expect Modi to win state elections for them.

Secondly, opening the flood gates to letting all and sundry to BJP from other parties over the last 10-12 months has proven to be detrimental . Remember the embarrassing news last month where two presumed candidates from Kolkata were given BJP tickets only for those "candidates" to come on video and say they are not even members of BJP ? BJP made similar mistakes by ignoring the voices of its cadres and giving tickets to turncoats in other constituencies as well. In Rajarhat new town assembly, the party workers protested saying the very turncoat candidates who were given tickets are the ones who mere months ago were orchestrating violence against BJP workers !

There were plenty of hints that haphazard ticket distribution, giving tickets to parachuted candidates from TMC and CPI instead of party loyalists will come back to bite BJP. In Hastings, one report said senior BJP leaders were heckled inside party office in March !

Lastly, women were ignored and underestimated . I said repeatedly in the political dhaaga that Nirmala Sitharaman's decision to increase LPG prices 12 times in 2 months when food inflation was already high is a bad political decision. Mamata took a padyatra against rising prices in March, the household budget directly affects women.

All said and done i think BJP lost around 50+ because of its own follies. It may not have been sufficient to form the government but it would have been a force to reckon with. Its time now for the party to carefully analyze each and every seat so they build on this momentum . The senior leadership should have learnt by now that they cannot win every seat on Modi and Amit Shah's posters alone. BJP did not even exist in WB until 5 or 6 yrs ago, so building a strong infrastructure, filter to select the right candidates and creating a support system around those candidates is something BJP needs to create and perfect.

VKumar · Post by **VKumar** » 02 May 2021 20:42

Sicanta wrote:Another thing is that after starting cases in scams, etc , you cant dither and delay the logical conclusion for long in case after case. Soon enough, it starts to seem that there is a political angle to it and less about scam, if any, itself. One can crow all about the ongoing cases in election speeches and its all for naught.

Exactly. Look at NSEL scam. Pending since 2013. Government lost in SC as it did not present a case. All are feeding at the same trough. 5600 cr is a lot of money to buy anyone and everyone.

BJP without Namo is practically zero. But he has his limitations and even within the party many Brutus are waiting for their opportunity.

shravanp · Post by **shravanp** » 02 May 2021 20:42

I think its all good. At least BJP is now a "recognized" principal opposition party in WB. I thought it was a bit over ambitious to expect BJP to win the state right from single digit to triple digit. It would have been nice had they won, but lets be realistic. With this exercise the BJP leadership at least got the pulse, and the mood of the state. Hopefully next time. Great job by BJP karyakartas.

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 02 May 2021 20:42

Data point Per Zee news report that that more then 85% of Muslim Votes went to TMC even in contests where there were other Muslim candidates. No rocket science to guess what the percentage is where the choice was straight between Muslim/Hindu or Hindu BJP Vs TMC candidate.

After the Muslim leader in TMC openly claimed that they will make 4 pakistan's in West Bengal, the Hindu Bengalis still voted for TMC. What is wrong with them? Are they too dense not to see what awaits them?

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 02 May 2021 20:51

BJP needs to tailor its behavior accordingly -- abuse Hindus in Kerala, TN and Bengal (who expect to be abused and exploited as they realize they are full of shit) and praise the glory of Hinduism in Gujarat, MP, etc. (where people not will take any shit about their religion and culture).

That is simply not accurate. Hindus will vote for a party with civilizational moorings. But arguments like we will sell Air India will simply not cut it in some states. BJP has to be viewed as a party of the people and one which looks after the interests of the people. This can be civilizational. Add to it, locals have to see the connect with the party. It cannot be a bunch of folks landing in from elsewhere preaching shining India. That does not cut it in many states.
Kerala is a different case. However, WB was ripe for taking for the BJP had the strategy been played out differently. Again, yogis focus on western style parks and development will not get him votes. What will get him votes is door to door healthcare as he did with JE, water supply, local business, primary schooling (meals and health for kids) local heritage and culture (food and textiles) and district by district ethos. The same Niti Aayog fellows are giving wrong advice.

Request BJP to abandon the flawed idea of “development” and the tone deaf messaging. Forget the destruction to the environment and that all our future generations will suffer (hell, COVID spread and pollution are conclusive studies), forget that selling airlines will give control to external groups (no different than what vaccine factory closures did under UPA). Even from a vote bank perspective it will not get you votes unless people see local improvements. However, India is not America and India is a civilizational state so civilization must come first.

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 02 May 2021 20:52

Shri PP's data models seem to be unable to perform well in cases, where a section of the opposition sacrifices itself and transfers its entire vote bank to another section. That's why it seems he got DL totally wrong, and now Bengal. Then he ends up with egg on the face, which combined with loss of face, is a bad combination, all egg and no face

.

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 02 May 2021 20:56

Jarita wrote: Sorry but western style economic development will not win BJP votes. I know that the close advisors are giving these ideas that building 1000 lane highways will get them votes. That’s not going to happen. Every part of India does not value the so called development model of the BJP. If that was the case the TMC and CPI and co would not be sitting pretty. The so called casino style development in Uttarakhand has led BJP down the abyss.

Can't agree anymore and have been preaching forever that being disconnected from the base of pyramid is a mistake. No matter how illogical their thought process is. You have to conform to it and bow to it as it's an election based game. You can't put in no effort to change their thoughts to align with logic and expect good results. Accomplishments are sent to history books the moment they happen. If bad governance made people loose elections then that would have happened long ago. Vikas narrative wasn't going to last long. Common man isn't dumb enough to not know where the muscle power is. Not dharmic power but the muscle power. There's hardly any progress on changing the opinion and increasing education about the civilization to earn support. You can't walk into every meeting looking for support from Hindus and ask them to wait for chankya neeti to play out. I'm not dumb. I'm going to ask you to go and do something out in the street for me and provide me evidence. In UP, Yogi had reputation before the election that helped out BJP. No such thing in WB.

Combine that with no action on many other Hindu issues in awhile. Hard to tilt many Hindu votes based on the civilizational fight notion. Expectations are pretty clear that there needs to be steady stream of progress. It's called being relevant in the news cycle everyday.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 02 May 2021 20:56

True, credit must be given to PK for steering TMC to victory.

After GE2019 he drew up a seat by seat plan, analyzed the results, sent his team of workers to talk to the local people, and draw up seat/district level work for Mumtaz Banoo. This actually angered the party stalwarts such as Shuvendu Adhikari, Rajib Banerjee, etc.
Under PK's advice, Mumtaz Banoo increased dole out of almost freebies to the masses, cut down the number of muslim candidates, dropped several sitting MLAs and replaced them with a bunch of fresh faces including young celebrities. Looks like somehow BJP didn't failed to see the writing on the wall.

A few things:
1. Still, seat-wise margin of TMC victory has been very slim in many many seats.
2. Rural women, including Hindu women, showed their allegiance to TMC due to Kanyasree project, Rupasree project, etc. (free bicycles to girls, scholarships to girls, etc).
3. And, of course, the INC+LF+ISF vote getting transferred to TMC in a tactical way.

Still, no time or no scope of getting demoralized for BJP. Several barriers have been broken as follows:
1. Now a large section of intelligentsia is firmly pro-BJP and openly so which was not the case earlier.
2. With the decimation of ICN+LF+ISF, BJP becomes the only dissenting voice in the state.
3. RSS must keep up the good work it has been doing, especially the intensity seen in the last ten years.

We need to see how to handle a few issues. People like Dilip Ghosh, Rahul Sinha are good as street fighters, but may not be effective in getting
votes. On the other hand, Adhilary family will be the center of gravity now as Shuvendu Adhikary will lead the charge. He has been the giant killer by a slim margin. BJP needs to send booth level teams to talk to local people to find out why and what went wrong - as PK did exactly this after the GE2019.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 02 May 2021 21:00

I concur with Ambarji that raising the cooking gas price multiple times in the last two years has come to haunt BJP in this election. TMC took full advantage of this in rallies after rallies.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 02 May 2021 21:04

What happened to Kamal Hassan? Did he win?

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 02 May 2021 21:08

Kati wrote:I concur with Ambarji that raising the cooking gas price multiple times in the last two years has come to haunt BJP in this election. TMC took full advantage of this in rallies after rallies.

Again, that is not a factor even though MB mentioned it in her rallies. The fundamental fact is that local connect was missing and a district by district approach was absent.
Even with the cooking gas price raise, BJP could have won this. The local connect was not there.
Tamil Nadu and Kerala are different and one does not feel that loss. However Bengal could have been won by BJP if they did not come across as tone deaf shining India. This is like AbV in 2004. Everyone is trying to get brownie points with English media in India.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 02 May 2021 21:10

Kati wrote:I concur with Ambarji that raising the cooking gas price multiple times in the last two years has come to haunt BJP in this election. TMC took full advantage of this in rallies after rallies.

Along with high taxation of petrol and Diesel lockdown related slowdowns . But I think the main thing is left and INC have decided to sacrifice themselves. This will probably work only 1 time

Najunamar · Post by **Najunamar** » 02 May 2021 21:10

Also, there was some degree of complacency in the middle phases with a lot of will it be 2/3rds majority or a simple majority discussions. The opposition did a very tactical retreat making it seem like they were acknowledging defeat - too much reliance on the newcomers. In TN, the results were expected but even there some level of over confidence led to perhaps a reduction from a possible 5 seats down to a maybe 3. TN - people are very clear - they only count the money that you give/freebies/bribe. It is a gone case - in about 3 years GE2024 the same folks will probably vote against the DMK in LS elections. Chennai voting en masse for DMK shows the level of dhimmitude in the Hindus (I heard overt rage from rural voters while calling for GE2019 talking openly about the BJP candidate's personal life whilst DMK is given a free pass, so I agree with the analogy of the girl who makes the eligible bachelor go through hoops but elopes with the beggar)

WB - as people have suggested, look at constituency specific feedback and work towards 2024 (here again TMC goondas, illegal Bidis will complicate matters, kind of Bidi-Didi nexus) and 2026 (ground level work by karyakartas - can again be hampered by TMC).