Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

[Ambar]

Did our C-17s turn off their transponders ? I lost track of them as they neared Iran.

[ArjunPandit]

In my 2 paisa opinion, Only Stalinist USSR could have straightened out Afghanistan. Today I don't think anyone can match the brutality that is required to put down rogue states like Afghanistan and Pakistan.

by the time they entered gorbachev didnt have economy. Ruthlesness of Russia + Economy of china can do that. That could be a game. I dont think India should mind that. Chinese and russians would ensure that the root cause of why this place is like what it is will be controlled. Again US would come to spoil it.

[Jarita]

That was another day, another war:
...When you're wounded and left on Afghanistan's plains,
And the women come out to cut up what remains,
Jest roll to your rifle and blow out your brains
An' go to your Gawd like a soldier...
Rudyard Kipling
Gautam

Dang.. They did that pretty aggressively to the Russians. Somethings never change and never will. Glad we never put boots on the ground.

[Guddu]

In retrospect, one can connect the dots.
- Biden never made the phone call to Imran. Likely because Bakis were playing truant.

[nachiket]

by the time they entered gorbachev didnt have economy. Ruthlesness of Russia + Economy of china can do that. That could be a game. I dont think India should mind that. Chinese and russians would ensure that the root cause of why this place is like what it is will be controlled. Again US would come to spoil it.

The Russian army of today is barely a shadow of the formidable force that invaded Afghanistan from the north in the middle of winter. No amount of Chinese money will change that. Also, neither the Chinese nor the Russians are stupid enough to wade into a mess created by the Americans. They have nothing to gain from it anyway. They will be happy dealing with the Talibunnies themselves. The Chinese in particular hope to control them through the pakis.

[williams]

The speed at which the Bunnies took Kabul makes you wonder if they made a secret deal with Khan. And Khan knew that ANA will fold once they leave. Probably the deal is to let them leave peacefully and then Bunnies can take over. A lot of people gripe about Bunny way of rule, but that is how you control a population of Islamic tribal warlords. Word is that the ANA officers even maintained fake list of soldiers and pocketed the salaries,while Khan's troops did the heavy lifting.

Indian FS babus always had this romantic look at Access to CAR but guess what, that access is gone once we let the Brits create the Pakis and the subsequent treachery that followed when Pakis were hoodwinked to take over the Northern Areas and Baluchistan.

So right now it is a mess alright, but as long as that mess simmers in Pakiland we should be ok. Now that India has proven that we can control Paki airspace when needed. I think an occasional unannounced standoff strike on some Paki/Bunny camp will keep the problem from spilling over into our borders. But we need to be proactive in doing that instead of being reactive - as in the past.

[yogi]

Pretty poignant image (with the background photo and all…)
Afghan Presidential Palace.

Credit: AP

[ManuJ]

One thing to note is that this is not really a military defeat.
A lot of blame is being put on the Afghan national army, and on the other hand the Taliban militia is being given a lot of credit.
However, the truth is that there was hardly any major engagement between the two forces.
In most major cities including Kabul, the Taliban simply walked in.

This is very much a political defeat.
The Taliban were openly supported through men, material, intelligence and diplomacy by the Pakis and in proxy by the Chinese.
The US gave its own stamp of approval and legitimacy to the Talibs by dealing with them as a state power, by ignoring the legitimate Afghan government, and by declaring an exit date and releasing the Taliban prisoners even though there was no progress in the 'peace' talks.
The Afghan government on its part was busy infighting and kept secretly hoping till the end that the Biden administration and the international community will pull through and help keep the Taliban out or at least help negotiate a political agreement.
The Afghan military was demoralized and often cut out of the picture by local warlords and governors making secret deals with the Taliban.
The final outcome was bound to happen, and the Afghan army soldiers were right to not fight a losing war whose outcome had already been decided by the political entities long before the official American exit.

[ldev]

Michael P Pregent
@MPPregent
Former Intel Officer | Politics, Terrorism, & Cowboys - over Scotch, Chess, & Guitar | Senior Fellow | Veteran of 3 Wars | H-MINUS | Born in NY - Raised in TX.
Washington, DChudson.org/experts/1076-m…Joined January 2013
2,443 Following
36.5K Followers

^^^^He served in Afghanistan in 2002-2003

And his tweets from earlier today are given below on why the US failed in Afghanistan

13h
We didn't fail in Afghanistan because we stayed for 20 years.

We failed because we fielded 20 different teams with 20 different strategies against a patient and strategic enemy.

An enemy that kept the same team in play and was allowed an offseason and training camp every year

13h
Replying to
@MPPregent
As soon as we allowed safehaven for the Taliban in Pakistan that first winter - we signaled that every year for the next 20 years the group could refit, retrain, & re-arm for the "Spring Offensive."

No insurgency can be defeated if it has a safehaven.

Michael P Pregent
@MPPregent
·
13h
And when that safehaven is in the territory of an "ally", well, that's why we are where we are.

This is what serving US intelligence officers are saying, laying the blame for this debacle openly on the safe haven provided by Pakistan to the Taliban and the unwillingness of the political masters in DC to unleash the US armed forces to go after the Taliban in Pakistan.

[g.sarkar]

Well they could not weaken Pakistan by going after the Taliban in Pakistan. A strong Pakistan is needed to weaken India. A strong India is needed to weaken China. And a strong China is needed to weaken Russia. The balance of power is what the US understands. Afghanistan is a small player in this game.
Gautam

[Kati]

Now that Khan has left Afghanistan, and no US/NATO troops are to be fed and supplied through bakiland, how many billions
of $$ are to be lost to bakis? .... This is going to be a massive financial blow to baki's H&D.

[vimal]

Doesn't Afghanistan have Lithium mines?

[williams]

Well they could not weaken Pakistan by going after the Taliban in Pakistan. A strong Pakistan is needed to weaken India. A strong India is needed to weaken China. And a strong China is needed to weaken Russia. The balance of power is what the US understands. Afghanistan is a small player in this game.
Gautam

But they spent around 2 trillion dollars on it. In the game of balancing power they lost their own power for sure.

[Aditya_V]

Doesn't Afghanistan have Lithium mines?

If they have they have handed it on a platter to the Chinese.

So when are the PRC, Pakis, Qatar and Turkey recognising the new Afgan Taliban Government?

[SinghS]

But they spent around 2 trillion dollars on it. In the game of balancing power they lost their own power for sure.

If there is no conflict how would a powerful arms, support and ancillary industry be fed. It plays a huge role as money making tool in US politics. Conflicts and requirements to sustain and manage those conflicts are manufactured more for personal/company purpose than to serve real US interests.

They did not waste 2 trillion. Consider it a 2 trillion scam on US taxpayers.

[SRajesh]

Could I ask the group about the Symbolic nature of the date of takeover 15th August!!!
Remember the old Al Qaeda had this fetish about the numbers/date and their symbolic representation.
What does this pose to India??
Is their a message being sent??
Are we to expect trouble all over India or specifically Kashmir!
Only coming days will tell
Can anyone shed more light on this!! or am I burning too many candles unnecessarily on this!!

[Pratyush]

Doesn't Afghanistan have Lithium mines?

Enough to make it the lithium capital of the world. In the words of then president Hamid Karzai in 2007.

[g.sarkar]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/08/15 ... istan-news
Afghanistan News: 20-Year U.S. War Ending as It Began, With Taliban Ruling Afghanistan
Aug. 15, 2021
As the Afghan president fled the country and the government crumbled, the U.S. military raced to evacuate diplomats and civilians from an increasingly panicked city.
Kabul falls to the Taliban as the Afghan government collapses and the president flees.
The Taliban effectively sealed their control of Afghanistan on Sunday, pouring into the capital, Kabul, and meeting little resistance as President Ashraf Ghani fled the country, the government collapsed, and chaos and fear gripped the city, with tens of thousands of people trying to escape.
The insurgents’ return to power, two decades after they were ousted, came despite years and hundreds of billions of dollars spent by the United States to build up the Afghan government and its defense forces. In a lightning offensive, the Taliban swallowed dozens of cities in a matter of days, leaving Kabul as the last major redoubt of government control.
On Sunday evening, former President Hamid Karzai announced on Twitter that he was forming a coordinating council together with Abdullah Abdullah, chairman of the Afghan delegation to peace talks, and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the leader of the Hesb-i-Islami party, to manage a peaceful transfer of power. Mr. Karzai called on both government and Taliban forces to act with restraint.
But the Taliban appeared to ignore his appeal and advanced into the city on its own terms.
The Taliban’s lead negotiator in talks with the government, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, congratulated all of Afghanistan for the victory. “Now it will be shown how we can serve our nation,” he said. “We can assure that our nation has a peaceful life and a better future.”
Mr. Baradar made the comments in a video posted on social media, surrounded by other members of the Taliban delegation to the talks in Doha, Qatar.
“There was no expectation that we would achieve victory in this war,” he said. “But this came with the help of Allah, therefore we should be thankful to Him, be humble in front of Him, so that we do not act arrogantly.”
Al Jazeera reported that it had interviewed Taliban fighters who were holding a news conference in the presidential palace in Kabul. The fighters said they were working to secure Kabul so that leaders in Qatar and outside the capital could return safely. Al Jazeera reported that the fighters had taken down the flag of Afghanistan.
As it became clear that Taliban fighters were entering Kabul, thousands of Afghans who had sought refuge there after fleeing the insurgents’ brutal military offensive watched with growing alarm as the local police seemed to fade from their usual checkpoints.
.....
Gautam

[jamwal]

There was a comment about someone lamenting that US trained ANA as light infantry. It was not a really bad decision considering how duplicitous ANA was since its inception. They killed as many if nor more American soldiers, had no motivation to fight against Taliban/Pakistan. Additionally Taliban is less than a lightly armed infantry itself. If ANA with American training and gear can't even find the will to fight against Taliban, then they can't do it even if you gave them tanks, ATGMs and F-35.

[Srikanth P]

https://twitter.com/Bharatmay83/status/ ... 36546?s=20

See these videos from today.... i dont think any aircraft can take off with people running amuck like that.
Worryingly, I see many C17 globemasters in the background... hope they dont belong to IAF. Did our two
aircraft that landed at kabul last night ever return?

[rkirankr]

We should have started evacuation last week.

[AshishA]

I came across a interesting fact. One of the top Talib leaders Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanakzai was trained at IMA in the 80s.

[Aditya_V]

I hope and pray , we get all our Men out, cant believe we would have C-17 there in Kabul when the Taliban are taking over, most probably NATO/US C-17.

ANA did not fight in any part of Afganistan- it certainly seems rotten, The taliban will wait for 3 months to get out international headlines before they start implementing the Paki CHinese Plan.

[rsingh]

Was the Soviet withdrawal chaotic, inept and humiliating?

And please don’t quote Time magazine.

Nope. Was in Moscow. There were these ceremonial crossing on some bridge on TV news. One can see flags and hear music. Only things that were left were some debris of helo and personal carriers. There were no attacks on retreating Soviets. Soviets left not because of economic reasons as their economy was going down day by day. Shortage of goods had started to bite. Time can write anything. According to them India was loosing 1971 war till last day. And even after defeat they were praising Bakistan

[Aditya_V]

The Communist Government of Najibullah lasted for 3 years after the Soviets withdrew. There is something definitely rotten in Taliban taking over all parts of Afghanistan without any real fighting.

It was only after the fall of the Soviet Union and when the Russian Government cut off Supplies in 1992, most probably to appease the US- did the Mujahidin win.

[Cyrano]

This ex-muslim Turkish origin guy now living in the US sums it up perfectly !

[rsingh]

double post

[srin]

Hamid Karzai is still in Kabul ? Has he switched sides - because he is sure to get lamp post treatment otherwise ...

[Pratyush]

We should have started evacuation last week.

True, with hindsight. But no one could have foreseen the rapid collapse of ANA in the face of Taliban.

[Pratyush]

Hamid Karzai is still in Kabul ? Has he switched sides - because he is sure to get lamp post treatment otherwise ...

Don't think anyone associated with the previous ruling dispensation will remain in Afghanistan.

The most amazing part of the Taliban offensive is that traditional grounds of any potential opposition were subdued first. Before any major cities were taken.

During the last time arround the northern alliance was kept alive by friendly nations aid. In order for it to act as a launch point against Taliban.

This time northern alliance no longer exists.

Secondly, an organisation that has retaken power after over 20 years of fighting. Is not going to share any power. With those it has defeated. So national reconciliation or national unity government can be totally ruled out.

It presents an interesting opportunity for nations like India. But it requires a partner with whom we can work.

[rsingh]

Found this word "Schadenfraude". German word for "malicious joy"....that is what China and Bakistan are going through.

[srin]

Why do I see American retreat as a repeat of 1842 massacre of Elphinstone's army ?

[Cyrano]

Taliban 2.0 seem to be much smarter than they made the world think they are until now. The future looks like this to me:

Stage 1: "Emirate" : Afghanistan will initially go along the Iranian model. Lamp posts will be used once they consolidate grip on the entire country, the foreigners leave, all entry and exit points & airports are fully in Taliban control and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) is established and outsiders can no longer intervene. Then the real power struggles will happen and darwinian victors will emerge. As long as non-muslim nations don't interfere in IEA or Islamic matters they will not stir too much trouble outside their borders.

Stage 2: "Chidiya Chor" : Their focus now will be on raiding eastwards like the generations have done before them to capture the "Aag ki Chidiya" or Pak's crown jewels. Pakistan is anyway seen by the Taliban as a failed islamic state and in the long established tradition of sons killing their fathers, they will go after Pakistan's scotch swigging, dog loving Pepperoni Genernails and expand their new emirate erasing the Durand line. Pepperoni Genernails will quickly realise their Frankenstien creation has islamised their own Army at every level, so they will cut a deal to become the (acting) heads of the expanded IEA's army and bringing their Crown Jewels ie dirty bums with them, which the Taliban will find impossible to resist. The PA surely know how to spin the resulting IEA++ into a victory, while secretly hoping to do a military coup at some point in the future. They won't care much about separatist movements in Baluchistan or Sindh - they will simply let Taliban to run over those regions striking terror in those peoples who will eventually, being muslims, submit to the new Emirate's islamic rule.
IEA++ which now encompasses AF+Pak will then have 2 choices:

Stage 3: "Caliphate" : To supplant Saudi Arabia as the global authority on sunni islam itself, declare itself as the new Caliphate and lord over the Ummah, and start a war with Iran & KSA which will lead to MAD scenarios in the ME. The Chinese invested lot of money meanwhile in exchange for not interfering with Uyghurs, thats great because the call of the new Caliphate can actually activate the dormant Uyghurs when needed. Islamic ideology exerts a pull that Communism can never match. Who cares about a taquiyya promise made to greedy, goodless yellow idiot Chinese anyway?

--- OR directly go to ---
Stage 4: "Gajwa e Hind' : To conquer the "soney ki chidiya" and realise the dream their forefathers tried countless times but never succeeded. They will most likely go to stage 3 then Stage 4 because the promised Hind has now become very powerful and is a "soney ka giddh (meaning golden eagle or gartuhmantha)" and can't be attacked too soon. Meanwhile they can create and foster maximum internal rot, because the ummah loyal to the caliphate is everywhere and is multiplying like horseweed (Eichhornia) on stagnant water, slowly suffocating all other life forms of light and oxygen.

So the priority for India (preferably with or even without the US) now must be to swoop down on Pak's dirty bums and confiscate them to prevent them from falling into IEA's hands. Even if that means war now because it will be a far more dangerous war the later we fight it. Don't worry about the Tofu Chinese, they will never fight a war they cant win, and have never won any. They'll be happy just to keep their shandongs and ding dongs intact for beauty parades of the proletariat. If India acts clearly and decisively NO ONE can or will stop us because no one wants an islamic bum.

[rsingh]

I see people are bringing Iranian model in posts. I think Iran is and was quite different. Iranians are educated people. They have litrature, culture and functioning economy which is not bad despite sanctions. They may be hanging people from crains but they have capability to make rocket and enriched material for bombs. Afghans on other hand have nothing except dry fruits and broken Budha statues. Li mines and all that ........well we will see.

[Cyrano]

By Iranian model, I simply mean a mullah controlled, sharaia based islamic state to consolidate firm grip of Taliban on the entire country and resolve/eliminate rivalry.

You are right, Afghanisstan has neither the education nor the economy to sustain in the medium terms esp. if aid $$$ dry up, which makes them vulnerable. Thats why they say they are making noises about stability, going easy on women etc. But aid $$$ + drug money won't be enough either to realise Taliban's islamic agenda.

Those handicaps are precisely what will drive a fully legitimised, nation ruling Taliban in the next stage to rob their progenitors Paki Gernails and grab their nooks, the Pakis have to play along to save themselves else an islamic revolt of Pak Army & people will happen - radicalisation cuts both ways. Thats why so much nervousness in Pak statements and hardly any chest thumping.

[kit]

Now that Kabul has been almost taken, ISI and Taleban are now on the look out for NDS officials.. so far one has been murdered..

US bringing in more troops to secure the airport as things getting out of hand.. UK were sending 800 but no sign of them

There is an international coalition building to put sanctions on Afghanistan and not to recognize the taliban. Wait and watch… moves are afoot

With convicted terrorists on the lose US/NATO will have to take some steps

Sanctions on Afghanistan without sanctioning Pakistan is a joke in the worst taste !

[kit]

Taliban 2.0 seem to be much smarter than they made the world think they are until now. The future looks like this to me:

So the priority for India (preferably with or even without the US) now must be to swoop down on Pak's dirty bums and confiscate them to prevent them from falling into IEA's hands. Even if that means war now because it will be a far more dangerous war the later we fight it. Don't worry about the Tofu Chinese, they will never fight a war they cant win, and have never won any. They'll be happy just to keep their shandongs and ding dongs intact for beauty parades of the proletariat. If India acts clearly and decisively NO ONE can or will stop us because no one wants an islamic bum.

There are the few major actors who need to get their heads right

The Chinese who think the talibunnies would listen to them . A nasty armed ughur conflict would make them go the "american" way and the bunnies would do a paki on them.

The Americans are burnt left right and centre., still "the company" would think it useful to have contacts with them

The pakis pray that bunnies would not do a paki on them., looks now that "Islamic Emirate" is in place, the bunnies would show them who is boss. Quite likely some atami bums will go missing

Joe Bidens presidency will go down as the worst in history as America is forced into newer conflict zones

UK and NATO will continue to make noises but that's all they will do

Welcome to a multipolar world where no one is "in charge"

[kit]

. Li mines and all that ........well we will see.

likely go the route of pakis gold mines !

[Aditya_V]

Meanwhile, Im the dim has welcomed Taliban and Taliban are speaking nicely of the Chinese.

Imran Khan is happy with the arrival of ‘Taliban Raj’ in Afghanistan! Said- ‘He broke the mental chains of slavery’

[krisna]

https://twitter.com/BharadwajSpeaks/sta ... 00713?s=09

. [Tweet
Bharadwaj
@BharadwajSpeaks
·
18m
Do we see what is happening in Afghanistan right now?

People jostling at the airport because they cannot live under Taliban for a day.

But our ancestors faced this for hundreds of years. They had not converted nor had they fled.

It is due to their resilience that we exist