2021 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

[chetak]

... I wonder what is the end goal of Uddhav Thackeray ? There's no chance in hell SS will win enough seats on its own in any elections to form a government without coalition. If the INC-NCP-SS gains enough seats to form a government again, neither NCP nor INC will be keen to let SS remain in the CM seat.

Ambar ji, while it is a possibility, it is in no way a probability.

The ordinary Marathi manoos, with great inbuilt pride in the great Chattrapati Shivaji Maharaj, has always admired, and voted, for a strong regional leader.

And while they are very patriotic towards desh, they are also particular about local issues and demanding benefits they feel are their rights (especially over neighboring states)

They will certainly not vote for a leader perceived to be weak.

Added later - I still well remember the strong undercurrent of resentment in the shiv sena when Modi was given the title of Hindu Hriday Samrat even while Balasaheb Thackeray was alive.

I have even seen the mild disapproval in my own extended family and friends circle..

The SS might well be trying to get back that identity by assuming that Modi is going down the softer 'Sabka Saath' route and being aware that they need to be distinguishable from the NCP

JMT of course

The Indian crab syndrome has reared its very ugly head in MAH with many BJP manoos actively sabotaging the prospects of fadnavis.

they see the easy pickings by the current foxes in the henhouse and want the same for themselves.

This can easily go the KAR way where the very same thing is happening.

people don't change parties and then insist on plum portfolios because they are everyday temple goers and pious politicians eager to serve the populace.

they all want red light gaadi, center to "swalpa adjust maadi" and no central agencies sent to their houses to remove their chaddi.

[vera_k]

Sena and Rane have an unsettled fight from Bal Thackeray days.

Rane expelled from Sena

"Rane began a show of strength...People were threatened. I cannot tolerate gangsterism in the Sena," he said.

[Manish_P]

...

The Indian crab syndrome has reared its very ugly head in MAH with many BJP manoos actively sabotaging the prospects of fadnavis...

Well put, Chetak saar

While It might well be the same in politics everywhere, IMHO that's exactly where the top leadership has to step in strongly and keep everyone in line and also be seen to be doing so by the aam Janta..

The Crack of the whip has be to loud enough to be clearly heard across the length and breadth

Added - incidentally this is what I was referring to in my earlier post about the Hindu Hriday Samrat thing..

http://archive.indianexpress.com/news/sena-refuses-to-bestow-hindu-hriday-samrat-title-on-modi/1141340/

[vimal]

[Manish_P]

...
I'll admit i am surprised about 2 things - one, how long the MVA government has lasted and that too with little to no squabbling among partners and two, BJP's failure to break away a faction from SS given how weak and politically vulnerable Uddhav looked in his early days...

Ambar ji, that is precisely what I was trying to convey in my earlier post... the BJP is still seen by a large portion of the ordinary Marathi people as more of a pan India oriented party while the SS in particular and the NCP in general are considered as the true local Marathi/Maharashtra only focused party.. (the congress barely counts now)

As you rightly said, other states might feel the same..

I will share an anecdotal experience I have personally been seeing for the past 1 year plus.. in my society whatsapp group there are some 55 odd members. 90 percent are maharashtrians. They will post good things about Modi but always pasting from English sources. There are hardly any good mentions about him in the Marathi print and the Marathi TV media... and this is a calculated move (if you figure out who owns them)

They will also post negative things about him/BJP but usually always from Marathi newspapers.

Secondly, they will never post negative things about the SS, particularly about UT from any language source.

For one thing, there is usually hardly any criticism about them in the Marathi press. For another the SS did a pre-emptive surgical strike, very early on, on some ordinary people who posted critical forwards in face book, Twitter etc. And you are no doubt aware about how they packed of Arnab Goswami to jail...

By chance if some non- maharashtrian posts any criticism of SS in the society whatsapp, the admins are very quick to warn the member to delete the post right away.

Darr ka mahol hai, sir.

As regards your first point, you might be aware that there have always been strong rumors that Congress was instrumental on setting up the SS (from behind the scene of course) and they have not entirely forgotten it... despite some of the occasional 'thunderous' statements by the great Shri BT, aimed squarely at the gallery.

Lastly the BJP is more of a meritocracy based party and UT knows well that his best chance to secure his dynasty is to align with the NCP/Cong. The cong is almost finished and they calculate that after Kaka moves on, the power struggle between the daughter and the ambitious nephew will weaken the party giving SS the upper hand..

Standard disclaimer- JMT onlee

[chetak]

^^^^^^^

Manish_P ji

the bjp hasn't made any move for regime change in MAH because of covid. The time is not yet ripe

If they take over now or even attempt to do so, the entire covid mess in MAH will immediately get blamed on Modi and the MAH bjp.

the maha vikas vasooli is out there in public view, literally with the looters on the run and it helps the bjp that there is a public drama with vasooli ministers scurrying about like cockroaches with central agencies chasing after them, slipper in hand. the maha vikas vasooli has targeted the ex police commissioner iand he will hit back with juicy details to defend himself.

The cases, one suspects, is more like leverage to keep the ex police commissioner quiet. Waiting in the wings is the hit man on whom a lot is being blamed for corruption. The ex police commissioner and the maha vikas vasooli, both need fall guys to take the hit.

the central agencies will not arrest the looters so soon and allow some talib to give them bail, ASAP, after making caustic and politically loaded statements against the center in the preamble to the bail order.

Meanwhile, the vasooli are trying to get the third front together and they are very active participants in the enterprise, aligning with mumtaz begum and the likes of her

All this is bad optics, it's looking more like a gathering of vultures and carrion eaters, targeting an icon like Modi.

Modi is engaged in evacuation of people out of afghanistan, helping out weak states with vaccination assistance and that includes MAH which has benefitted from Modi's efforts.

I think that the SS is ruining itself in the public perception by arresting central ministers.

I am very sure that the succession plan for the NCP will include the talibs making a very strong bid for leadership of the party with or without the beedi merchant as the mukhota or "compromise" candidate.

The progeny and extended family candidates for succession are too weak to oppose the talibs and moreover, industry captains will not fund them like before because they will need to be sure of that family candidates have the requisite talents and proven competencies to continue to deliver, as before.

With the coop banks taken out of the states' control and sugar politics almost neutered, (control over) water politics and APMC politics have become a mere shadow of their original reach and grip, a hollow shell of their original grand scale power edifices, the power has shifted away from the current demoralized maratha leadership and has now become much more talib heavy.

so the viable options are puppet leadership with eventual takeover by the talibs or a split/splintered party with uncompromising factions.......

my two paise.

[vera_k]

^ Rane is a former SS gangster. Do not expect much sympathy unless Modi himself makes an issue out of it. The area where Rane was arrested was just hit by massive flooding, and people are in recovery mode. People are more concerned about building higher for next year than the travails of a politician.

[Manish_P]

...
the bjp hasn't made any move for regime change in MAH because of covid. The time is not yet ripe

If they take over now or even attempt to do so, the entire covid mess in MAH will immediately get blamed on Modi and the MAH bjp.

....

Chetak ji, broadly agree with you on the first part

But as regards the second, as I mentioned earlier (and you might recollect), the covid mess was ALREADY blamed on the centre right from the first wave itself!

You may recall things like not giving state government enough vaccines, not granting rights to Maha government to purchase from abroad, not granting emergency funds to set up oxygen generators, etc etc etc

There is a huge percentage of Marathi janta which primarily reads Marathi newspapers (in fact most households which subscribe to English papers like TOIlet also have subscription to at least one Marathi newspaper like Maharashtra times, Loksatta, etc) and they watch Marathi news channels.

And I am quite sure you are aware of who owns them and the agenda they have consistently run.

[chetak]

^ Rane is a former SS gangster. Do not expect much sympathy unless Modi himself makes an issue out of it.

even in the BJP, rane has no sympathy. His history is too well known by everybody but his inclusion caught many by surprise and seems to be seen by the vasoolis as a thook in the face of the SS.

right now rane is a central minister and he has been arrested to make a point in a dick measuring contest.

Elections are coming up for mayor, I think

[Manish_P]

^ Rane is a former SS gangster. Do not expect much sympathy unless Modi himself makes an issue out of it. The area where Rane was arrested was just hit by massive flooding, and people are in recovery mode. People are more concerned about building higher for next year than the travails of a politician.

True, but then they should not have included him in the first place right?

On one hand we ask why BJP is not able to break away factions of the opposition, while on the other hand we see that they are not really aggressive and proactive in protecting those who do come in...

[Vips]

I wonder what is the end goal of Uddhav Thackeray ? There's no chance in hell SS will win enough seats on its own in any elections to form a government without coalition. If the INC-NCP-SS gains enough seats to form a government again, neither NCP nor INC will be keen to let SS remain in the CM seat.

BJP was steadily replacing SS as the chosen party of Hindus and of Nationalist Indians in Maharashtra and especially in Mumbai. SS core base is Mumbai and with the ever increasing percentage of People from rest of India migrating into Mumbai preferring BJP it was natural that BJP would outgrow its dependence on SS.

BJP was literally running away with SS's lunch and was not ready to give even left-over's to the Sena. so the SS for its very survival had and has to think of BJP minus strategy.

The fault here is of BJP. It went out of its way to accommodate Nitish in Bihar but was not even ready to give half a term to the Sena.

[Ambar]

Not a fair comparison. As big a charlatan Nitesh may be but he is a tall leader in Bihar on his own might unlike a political novice like Uddhav Thackeray. BJP won twice as many seats as Sena and had a pre-poll alliance with Sena that BJP will retain the CM seat. This breaking of a mandate into half term each never works , we saw this in Karnataka in 2006 between BJP and JDS. After Sharad Pawar i see a higher possibility of BJP joining hands with NCP than BJP ever entering in coalition with SS, then again as they say in politics nothing is permanent.

[Cyrano]

BJP should rename itself as LKK. "Log Kya Kahengey" party - true for ghar ke andar and ghar ke bahar.
Then we can reset our expectations and stop wailing.

[Aditya_V]

why is BJP at fault here.

Basically INC, SS and NCP and all Allied parties are Intolerant, Jusitify rape but point fingers at BJP. Isnt this a good record that you can say anything against NM and he is tolerant but all the the others have a Taliban type mindset??

[Cyrano]

Yeah, we are waiting for Shishupala Vadha... some day

[chetak]

Not a fair comparison. As big a charlatan Nitesh may be but he is a tall leader in Bihar on his own might unlike a political novice like Uddhav Thackeray. BJP won twice as many seats as Sena and had a pre-poll alliance with Sena that BJP will retain the CM seat. This breaking of a mandate into half term each never works , we saw this in Karnataka in 2006 between BJP and JDS. After Sharad Pawar i see a higher possibility of BJP joining hands with NCP than BJP ever entering in coalition with SS, then again as they say in politics nothing is permanent.

niteshwa is another no hoper with a naidu complex who thinks that he is senior, superior to Modi thus becoming morally condescending and entitled to the PM's gaddi by right.

In the past, he has been "encouraged" by the likes of LKA + dilli 4 and some jealous elements in the RSS to think that he would have been supported by the BJP to become the PM instead of Modi.

LKA was scheming and nitishwa was pipe dreaming. There is no way that the BJP of ABA and beyond would ever allow any non organically originating leader to take center stage in a BJP party that has grown from 2 seats in parliament to 303 seats today.

All "Indian leaders" born in pukestan seem to have a kink in their psyche that puts India second and given half a chance, niteshwa, though not paki born, will bury India completely by implementing his corrosive and morally corrupt caste riven political ideology, just like paki born slimy singh and his preposterous idea of covert jizya where he insisted that mu$1im$ must have first claim on resources.

It was a pipe dream from the start and now it has become an idée fixe (स्थिर विचार) in nitishwa's mind and his imagined pathway to assured political progression and he is still very hopeful of staging a coup for the move to the PMO.

[Rahul M]

why is BJP at fault here.

Basically INC, SS and NCP and all Allied parties are Intolerant, Jusitify rape but point fingers at BJP. Isnt this a good record that you can say anything against NM and he is tolerant but all the the others have a Taliban type mindset??

they are pretty intolerant of celebration of hindu festivals though e.g arresting people for celebrating diwali, shooting people celebrating Durga puja (munger), suspending kumbh & kanwar yatra, anything I missed ? also, arresting hindus for real or percieved words of intolerance (recent good work by delhi police against the sullideals people, the middle-of-the-road mazar & the hate speech issue)
so full secularism points there, unlike the left and cong, who are only fake secular BJP is fully secular. After 70 years of fake secularism this is exactly what India asked for when the people of this country voted BJP to power with 303 seats.

[Rahul M]

didn't NK try to facilitate the conclusion of the gandhi maidan blasts by denying bulletproof car to NM ?

[SRajesh]

Has a SAD become the new late Ram Vilas Paswan type election prediction???
In-fighting in Cong
BSP marginal
demand for Caste census!!
Maybe SAD senses some change and wants to get back on board of the mother-ship!!
Looks like Congi election to loose if the present infight continues
Troubling brewing for it already in Chhattisgarh

[SRajesh]

The reason I ask is because Harsimrat Kaur making predictable noises about CAA

[chetak]

didn't NK try to facilitate the conclusion of the gandhi maidan blasts by denying bulletproof car to NM ?

all that and more

a vindictive cancelled lunch/dinner invitation where he uninvited Modi.

this guy is an actor but with a rapidly diminishing audience that has realized that his sell by date is fast approaching. The last election opened a lot of eyes.

If he remains quiet, then it's + BJP

If he doesn't then, it's +luloo yadav.

so for nitishwa, it's either piss or get off the pot type of situation.

[chetak]

The reason I ask is because Harsimrat Kaur making predictable noises about CAA

The sikhs coming in from afghanistan have changed the narrative. The CAA tide has turned against the naysayers in punjab.

bibi ji is hedging her bets so that the SAD can once again run with the hares and hunt with the hounds.

The farm laws have badly damaged the SAD + congis + NCP and all the political arthiyas in between.

[Paul]

Aisa Koi Sagga Nahin, Jisko Nitish ne Thaga nahin!

[chetak]

these tweets are dated but I was a bit surprised to see them

what exactly have these jokers got to do with the farmers, and more importantly,

why the cacophonous symphony.

these guys get paid to tweet, so who is paying them........

[Cyrano]

Perhaps well meaning folks who are just betraying their ignorance of the real issues.

[Yagnasri]

BJP in Bihar is still seen as a Party of upper caste people. Its local leadership failed to change the image. So a long way to go. Sushil Modi did not try to assert his authority at any point of time which being a Dy CM.

In case of MH, BJP is far bigger party than SS since 15 years. Even before 2015 elections, BJP got more seats than SS in 2010 while contesting lesser number of seats. SS used its image, relationship with central leadership of BJP ensured that it retain the big brother role in the state. Then comes NM and ABV time is over. Big Cat also dies. The contempt SS people have Gujarathi BC never allowed them to have any respect for NM also. NM also knows that. So the entire equation is changed. SS Model politics also lost their currency. Result SS came to know that in long run it is going to be more weak only.

They tried their luck in 2015 and failed very badly. So planned carefully from the start in 2020 and when time came backstabbed BJP. Fox played perfect game and now managing the distribution of the loot. So as long as loot is distributed properly UT will continue as CM.

[chetak]

Perhaps well meaning folks who are just betraying their ignorance of the real issues.

saar,

this was coordinated.

no call for such types to express colored political opinions unless motivated by interested parties or big money

they haven't gone political in the past, so it is not normal for them to do so now unless some BIF entity has reached out either directly to them or via some local influential agency

and, they are not supporting the Govt but the seem "amicable" only to other side.

[chetak]

The reason I ask is because Harsimrat Kaur making predictable noises about CAA

the SAD is very careful in their choice of words, hypocrites.

चित भी मेरी, पट भी मेरी

[chetak]

^ Rane is a former SS gangster. Do not expect much sympathy unless Modi himself makes an issue out of it. The area where Rane was arrested was just hit by massive flooding, and people are in recovery mode. People are more concerned about building higher for next year than the travails of a politician.

[Manish_P]

saar,

this was coordinated.

no call for such types to express colored political opinions unless motivated by interested parties or big money

Chetak ji, aren't these posts all managed by their Hired PR agencies? 3 of them are cricketers, there is likelihood that the same agency represents them.

The PR agencies are the ones who are approached by private parties for posts and the sum is negotiated with the agency getting it's cut... I bet these moron super 'stars' don't even read all the posts they are supposed to have posted... much less the public feedback to it.

I have seen it in the social media world myself, the representatives would not show the actual threads but make a PowerPoint presentation where they would paste screen shots of only select positive responses to fool gullible non tech savvy CEOs

[Ambar]

Perhaps well meaning folks who are just betraying their ignorance of the real issues.

saar,

this was coordinated.

no call for such types to express colored political opinions unless motivated by interested parties or big money

they haven't gone political in the past, so it is not normal for them to do so now unless some BIF entity has reached out either directly to them or via some local influential agency

and, they are not supporting the Govt but the seem "amicable" only to other side.

Not BIF . This was no doubt a coordinated campaign alright but it was against BIF after the Rehaana/Mia Khalifa/Greta Howdareyouwali tweets. If i remember right , Shiv Sena had filed an FIR against Sachin Tendulkar as well for tweeting with Kohli, Akshay Kumar and others.

[chetak]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GyfKSFbD9i8


Lobby's Global Plot To Engineer Hindu Hate Exposed | The Debate With Arnab Goswami

[Rampy]

Not a fair comparison. As big a charlatan Nitesh may be but he is a tall leader in Bihar on his own might unlike a political novice like Uddhav Thackeray. BJP won twice as many seats as Sena and had a pre-poll alliance with Sena that BJP will retain the CM seat. This breaking of a mandate into half term each never works , we saw this in Karnataka in 2006 between BJP and JDS. After Sharad Pawar i see a higher possibility of BJP joining hands with NCP than BJP ever entering in coalition with SS, then again as they say in politics nothing is permanent.

niteshwa is another no hoper with a naidu complex who thinks that he is senior, superior to Modi thus becoming morally condescending and entitled to the PM's gaddi by right.

It was a pipe dream from the start and now it has become an idée fixe (स्थिर विचार) in nitishwa's mind and his imagined pathway to assured political progression and he is still very hopeful of staging a coup for the move to the PMO.

You should listen to this - BTW a good channel and very balanced in Hindi

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_LTgWHk3f4

[rsingh]

these tweets are dated but I was a bit surprised to see them

what exactly have these jokers got to do with the farmers, and more importantly,

why the cacophonous symphony.

these guys get paid to tweet, so who is paying them........

Some newly recruited Stephen PYT was juggling between "solution" UND "resolution".

[nachiket]

The Indian crab syndrome has reared its very ugly head in MAH with many BJP manoos actively sabotaging the prospects of fadnavis.

Problem in MH wasn't other BJP members sabotaging Fadnavis. It was always the SS. Fadnavis had to contend with the untenable situation of his own ally who he needed to keep the govt. in power acting like the main opposition in the Assembly. That Fadnavis still managed to run the government is a credit to him. The only reason BJP still allied with SS for 2019 is because they could not see a way past the NCP-Congress if the SS was going to compete with them on every seat. The math does not work out. It is going to be a big problem in 2024 as well. The BJP - SS link is finally irreparably broken now and they will definitely fight separately and they are going to run into the same issue with the math not working out and having to sit in the opposition even if they become the single largest party again. Their one hope might be if the elder Pawar does the whole country a favor and snuffs it and Ajit Pawar gets control of the NCP. Then a BJP-NCP alliance could be possible which would be enough to completely screw the Congress and SS.

[chetak]

The Indian crab syndrome has reared its very ugly head in MAH with many BJP manoos actively sabotaging the prospects of fadnavis.

Problem in MH wasn't other BJP members sabotaging Fadnavis. It was always the SS. Fadnavis had to contend with the untenable situation of his own ally who he needed to keep the govt. in power acting like the main opposition in the Assembly. That Fadnavis still managed to run the government is a credit to him. The only reason BJP still allied with SS for 2019 is because they could not see a way past the NCP-Congress if the SS was going to compete with them on every seat. The math does not work out. It is going to be a big problem in 2024 as well. The BJP - SS link is finally irreparably broken now and they will definitely fight separately and they are going to run into the same issue with the math not working out and having to sit in the opposition even if they become the single largest party again. Their one hope might be if the elder Pawar does the whole country a favor and snuffs it and Ajit Pawar gets control of the NCP. Then a BJP-NCP alliance could be possible which would be enough to completely screw the Congress and SS.

fadnavis is a brahmin. Nothing more need be said as far as MAH politics goes.

the predominant leadership, both in rural and urban settings, is either maratha or is maratha supported. Tokenism is there but the reins are mostly in maratha hands for now.

Fadnavis has helped to dismantle and in neutering this group. His surgical strikes on the MAH state APMC structure and the strangling of the coop banks' management still rankles and
that is why he was overthrown because they feared his ongoing reforms.

Coming up fast in the rearview are the jehadi lot, intent on capitalizing on the gains made by the onion merchants and usurping the advantage to their benefit.

Even now, the almost non negotiable condition that has been quietly put upon the BJP for any alliance is "no fadnavis" and this condition is currently unacceptable, both to the centre and the RSS.

fadnavis has a clean image, is the favorite in nagpur, is extremely savvy politically and his flighty better/bitter half is now out of the clutches of the padres and under home control.

the onion merchant family has no support, it has no finesse nor the ability to strategise and will crumble under internal dissention once the kingpin is out of the picture. They are desperately in the hunt for a major ministry at the centre to blood female aspirants and acquire the currently non existent but all important administrative exposure. The "pisser in the rye" is a washout, a huge liability and unwanted.

onion merchants need successors to be suave with no swagger and most importantly, suppress any desire to micturate publicly

the ss has been affected by all of fadnavi's decisions and obviously wish to be rid of him. They also know that they are no match for him because they just couldn't influence him even when they were allies.

the non manoos element among the voting public in the urban setting is increasing by the day and the traditional hold of the SS is declining.

I suspect that the SS was stampeded by onion merchants to knife the BJP the way they did

but the sinking onion merchants, who thought they were home free, are paying the price when they can least afford it and die-nastie is at grave risk.

no one factored in shaheenbagh and the jehadi benakab that has resulted in the momin being forced to make an open bid for power

[KL Dubey]

BJP was steadily replacing SS as the chosen party of Hindus and of Nationalist Indians in Maharashtra and especially in Mumbai.

It still is doing so every day, which is the only important thing of note. Rest is noise (also marketed as news).

As I said before, BJP rarely indulges in tit-for-tat actions anymore. Dramas by local/state parties are met by much bigger blows from New Delhi such as the farm laws and coop laws.

[chetak]

BJP was steadily replacing SS as the chosen party of Hindus and of Nationalist Indians in Maharashtra and especially in Mumbai.

It still is doing so every day, which is the only important thing of note. Rest is noise (also marketed as news).

what you read in the maratha press and what you will read in the ballot box will be very different.

The VAX fups, the corruption and looting, the entire subverted law and order machinery are all being noticed by the mango manoos and he will speak, loud and clear, through the ballot box.

for anyone to speak publicly in MAH under today's sainik raj is surely life threatening

[chetak]

BJP was steadily replacing SS as the chosen party of Hindus and of Nationalist Indians in Maharashtra and especially in Mumbai.

It still is doing so every day, which is the only important thing of note. Rest is noise (also marketed as news).

As I said before, BJP rarely indulges in tit-for-tat actions anymore. Dramas by local/state parties are met by much bigger blows from New Delhi such as the farm laws and coop laws.

true


this decision alone has the potential to gouge nitishwa where it will hurt him the most and there is jack that he can do about it.

This is strategy.

In a landmark decision, the central government has announced a 27% reservation for OBC, and a 10% reservation for EWS candidates in the All India Quota for undergraduate and postgraduate medical/dental courses (MBBS / MD / MS / Diploma / BDS / MDS) from the current academic year 2021-22 onwards.

[ManSingh]

these tweets are dated but I was a bit surprised to see them

what exactly have these jokers got to do with the farmers, and more importantly,

why the cacophonous symphony.

these guys get paid to tweet, so who is paying them........

These tweets have been posted out of context. The background is when Riha nna tweeted in support of farm laws ( the Greta toolkit row ), there was a pushback from Indian celebrities with the above tweets. The intent of these tweets was to indicate that India is more than capable of amicably resolving all issues internally and does not need outsiders interfering.

If anyone's paying them it has to be GOI, which is highly unlikely. This post is a perfect example of the negative power of social media.