Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 04 Sep 2021 06:03

anishns · Post by **anishns** » 04 Sep 2021 07:46

Not sure if true but Maj Gen must have pretty good sources

Maj Gen (Dr)GD Bakshi SM,VSM(retd)
@GeneralBakshi
·
7h
.Taliban got a bloody nose in Panjshir and has requested Gen Bajwa to take Panjshir for them. Have promised Gen Bajwa if his forces get them the head of amrullah saleh they will help Pak take kashmir.Maj Gen Adil Rehmani along with two SSG bns is leading the assault on Panjshir

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 04 Sep 2021 13:45

^^^^ "help Pak take Kashmir" hard to believe Pakis are so stupid as to believe that

parikh_ind · Post by **parikh_ind** » 04 Sep 2021 14:38

https://canarytrap.in/world-news/the-gr ... lace-coup/
https://canarytrap.in/world-news/the-gr ... up-part-2/
https://canarytrap.in/world-news/the-gr ... up-part-3/

Interesting set of articles covering the role of Ghani's inside circle (all parachuted by the goras) in the debacle. Rather than share power with the other tribes once the gora paymasters were off , the Pashtuns and Ghani did a coup and handed the country over to Taliban

The role of Hamdullah Mohib (National Security Advisor, Afghanistan) in the collapse of the Afghan government and enabling Taliban to takeover the country will certainly be discussed in the days ahead. According to some bureaucrats who worked in the Arg, one of the reasons why the trained and well-equipped Afghan army collapsed without a fight was because Mohib was contracting surrender deals with the Taliban to help it advance.

The appointment of district police chiefs and regional Army commanders were mandated to the Ministry of Interior and Ministry of Defense respectively. But Mohib’s office (Office of National Security Council), with the support of President Ghani bypassed both these ministries in matters related to appointments and policy making

Interestingly, Mohib’s office had changed commanders in those districts that were already categorised as facing high-level security threats. By the time US announced the withdrawal of its forces, the Taliban had taken over all the 200 districts in which Mohib had interfered with appointments.

Here’s something that staffers at the Arg have wanted to know for a long time.

“Hamdullah Mohib, you are a British citizen. You served as Afghanistan’s National Security Advisor. Your official biography says that you are from Nangarhar. We would often discuss with your deputies at the Arg about your place of birth and relatives. They said they have never met any of your relatives or even heard you ever speaking to them or speaking of them. Many of us have long wondered who you are. You just came from nowhere.

parikh_ind · Post by **parikh_ind** » 04 Sep 2021 14:47

Insight into Pashtun caste system and fault lines which can be exploited .

https://www.rediff.com/news/column/can- ... 210825.htm

Afghan tribal society has been riven by hostility between the ruling Durrani elites, the Barakzai and Popalzai sub-clans and the commoner Ghilzais.

Of the approximately 40% of Pashtuns in Afghanistan, Durranis comprise about 12% while Ghilzais account for about 15%.

The Zadran, the progenitor of the Haqqani clan, are more numerous, spreading in the eastern provinces of Nangarhar, Pakhtia, Khost.

They are considered lower in the tribal pecking order, compared to the 'blue blooded' Barakzais and Popalzai, or the Ghilzais.

Even among Ghilzais, there have been intra-tribal grudges between Ahmadzais and Ishaqzais, both sizably numerous sub-clans of Ghilzais, or between the Ishaqzais and Noorzais.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 04 Sep 2021 18:09

UK Foreign Min met TSP/A to discuss Afg. UK and US answer is that what was promised in Doha was not delivered and therefore we are far away from recognizing Taleban Govt.

Not sure if it’s true but ISI chief in Kabul today probably to attempt to sort things out

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 04 Sep 2021 19:21

shyamd wrote: Not sure if it’s true but ISI chief in Kabul today probably to attempt to sort things out

Just what we speculated on this thread. The ISI and Pakistan wants control via the Haqqani network and the ISI chief is there to sort out the differences between Mullah Yaqoob, Mullah Baradar and the Haqqani Network which has held up the formation of the Taliban Government. Means China and Pakistan will become the ultimate beneficiaries if this goes through. But Mullah Yaqoob is opposed to it. And in the meantime all the factions are trying to put down the resistance in Panjshir before the formation of the new Government so that there is no question of power sharing with ethnic Tajiks or Uzbeks.

Also, China wants a peaceful united Afghanistan which they can control and influence via Pakistan/ISI so that they can make their investments in the mining sector in peace. And Russia wants peace on the Afghan borders with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The CTO military exercises do not address the threat which Russia and the CARs face. Islamic extremism cannot be defeated with SU-30SMs and tanks, I would have thought that Russia would understand that after their 10 year stay in Afghanistan.

EXCLUSIVE | Pak Wants to Control Afghan Army. ISI Chief in Kabul to 'Push for' Haqqani Group

rkirankr · Post by **rkirankr** » 04 Sep 2021 21:02

https://youtu.be/uEG37eyKGz8 Seems to be a major defeat to Talibans in Panjshir

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 04 Sep 2021 21:48

RKumar · Post by **RKumar** » 04 Sep 2021 22:22

anmol wrote:

Question to USA, why they are not doing bombing where Cavemen and SSB are preparing to attack the NRF.

Why not provide them required material and intel. Situational awareness will be very important to NRF.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 04 Sep 2021 22:30

RKumar wrote:
anmol wrote:
Question to USA, why they are not doing bombing where Cavemen and SSB are preparing to attack the NRF.

Why not provide them required material and intel. Situational awareness will be very important to NRF.

the taliban have plenty of US and other western hostages to ensure that the goras play nice.

all the whiteys did not get out of kabul in time. Besides some important goras have been selectively segregated and "disappeared" to leverage western govts

kit · Post by **kit** » 04 Sep 2021 23:38

chetak wrote:
RKumar wrote:
Question to USA, why they are not doing bombing where Cavemen and SSB are preparing to attack the NRF.

Why not provide them required material and intel. Situational awareness will be very important to NRF.
the taliban have plenty of US and other western hostages to ensure that the goras play nice.

all the whiteys did not get out of kabul in time. Besides some important goras have been selectively segregated and "disappeared" to leverage western govts

Pretty sure covert support would be coming to the NRF ., it would be in the interests of the western countries to have a spanner in the works

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 04 Sep 2021 23:45

Rule of great pawaars: play both sides.

hemant_sai · Post by **hemant_sai** » 05 Sep 2021 00:51

This is too late to ask this but I would like to understand this puzzle -

If Amerikis just wanted to leave at any cost,
Amerikis had 4 years to recruit and train ANA and make a solid plan with allies for their safe return - why they had to negotiate with Taliban in 1st place?

Something is very very fishy. But why no ally of USA or strategic partner was questioning this negotiation move of USA?

As it turns out all that matters was return of USA forces and closure of Afghan chapter. Concern for the afghan people was absolute pretense.
Then why all this tamasha of peace negotiations?

Why India should let go of USA without knowing the truth? Why should India accept this back-stabbing from USA - because it appears they are more interested in empowering Pakistan.

hemant_sai · Post by **hemant_sai** » 05 Sep 2021 00:55

Why did Indian MEA trusted USA or relied on USA actions as reference for taking decisions about our withdrawal from Afghanistan.
What exactly these super-talented diplomats hoping for? Why we had to get into this mess we are currently in and have talks with Taliban to ensure safety of our people? This is beyond comprehension and someone from MEA must resign for this mess.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 05 Sep 2021 01:45

sanjaykumar wrote:Rule of great pawaars: play both sides.

from twitter

America has defeated America in Afghanistan.

If you fight from both sides, you will lose from one side.

The America that fought on the side of Pakistan has won. But its dumb leaders cannot claim that victory.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 05 Sep 2021 01:58

hemant_sai wrote:Why did Indian MEA trusted USA or relied on USA actions as reference for taking decisions about our withdrawal from Afghanistan.
What exactly these super-talented diplomats hoping for? Why we had to get into this mess we are currently in and have talks with Taliban to ensure safety of our people? This is beyond comprehension and someone from MEA must resign for this mess.

why some poor time serving, pension pasand, house loan installment paying babooze should regine

lots of people are saying that mudi sud regine

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 05 Sep 2021 02:27

Even trusted NATO countries were kept in dark. From very first day US establish control over Airport.MEA tried its best in given circumstances.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 05 Sep 2021 02:40

Afghanistan: Qatar and Turkey become Taliban's lifeline to the outside world
By Tom Bateman

MAster Bateman and the BBC make no reference to Pakistan.

Not conducive to domestic tranquility, no doubt.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 05 Sep 2021 02:51

https://www.firstpost.com/world/butcher ... 35551.html
Butcher of Kabul-turned PM, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar still holds stakes in Afghanistan
Hekmatyar was accused of killing thousands during the civil war in Afghanistan in the 1990s. Reports say that he lacked mercy for both his friends or foe and earned the title, ‘Butcher of Kabul’.
CNN-News18, September 03, 2021
Former Afghanistan Prime Minister and Hezb-e-Islami Gulbuddin (HIG) party chief Gulbuddin Hekmatyar have always remained a prominent face in the politics of the country. Referred by some as the ‘Butcher of Kabul’, Hekmatyar continues to be a key figure, ahead of the government formation of Taliban. Having fought alongside the United States and later against it, the former Prime Minister remained a powerful figure throghout the decades of conflict. Here’s a brief timeline of the prominent leader:
Early Life
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar was born in 1949 in the Afghan city of Ghazni. He was sent to the military academy in 1968, but he was later expelled for being too much Islamist. He joined Kabul University where he studied engineering while remaining an active Islamist. At the university, Hekmatyar met Ahmad Shah Massoud, who would go on to be a rival for a long time. In the mid-1970s, Hekmatyar along with others, including Massoud, fled to Pakistan because the President Mohammed Daud Khan government began a crackdown on Islamists, a report in The Print said.
Role in war against Soviet Union
The 1970s was a time when Afghanistan was beginning to be site of proxy war between the Soviet Union and the United States. The Islamist uprising had started during that time against the pro-Soviet regime in Afghanistan. The US saw this as an opportunity to settle scores with the Soviets for the Vietnam war and started funding the Mujahedeen. Hekmatyar had joined an Islamic group- Hezb-e-Islami, which he then broke away from, to form the Hezb-e-Islami Gulbuddin. The Hezb-e-Islami Gulbuddin was able to garner influence in three Afghan refugee camps in Pakistan. By that time, Hekmatyar had become US and Pakistan’s favourite because of his efficiency and cleverness. Hekmatyar therefore, got military and financial support from the United States and Pakistan’s ISI as he was considered to be ‘a minor intellectual among the illiterates.’ He was also given support from Saudi Arabia and Britain.
Killed thousands during civil war
Hekmatyar was accused of killing thousands during the civil war in Afghanistan in the 1990s. Reports say that he lacked mercy for both his friends or foe and earned the title, ‘Butcher of Kabul’. He was said to be a bitter rival of another prominent military commander Ahmad Shah Massoud and led a fight against his group. Massoud was arrested in Pakistan for espionage earlier in 1976 with Hekmatyar’s cooperation. Hekmatyar also launched a failed coup attempt in March 1990 against President Najibullah. Between 1992 to 1996, when the warring factions destroyed most of Kabul and killed thousands, many of them civilians, Hekmatyar’s group was responsible for most of the damage.
.......
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/dont-as ... -pakistan/
Don’t Assume a Taliban-Ruled Afghanistan Means Smooth Sailing for Pakistan
Already, there are worrying signs that the Taliban are inclined to ignore Islamabad’s most pressing concerns.
Maryam Raashed, September 03, 2021
With the withdrawal of the U.S.-led coalition forces from Afghanistan and reclamation of political power by the Afghan Taliban, countries in the region are shifting to respond to the emerging scenarios. For nearby countries like China, Russia, the Central Asian republics, India, and Pakistan, the political, economic, and security stakes in Afghanistan remain high. To Afghanistan’s east, Pakistan has been preparing to cope with the changing political and security dynamics in Afghanistan, and whatever may follow in the future. From pressing for a politically inclusive settlement to evacuations and delivery of medical supplies, Islamabad is trying to keep its position in Afghanistan strong.
As simple as it may sound, engaging with the Taliban will not be an easy affair for Islamabad. Contrary to the general belief that Islamabad exercises considerable leverage over the Afghan Taliban, the coming days may reveal the limitations of Pakistan’s influence. The Taliban of today possess a renewed vigor. The group has emerged as a dominant political force in Afghanistan, poised to assume the reins of government. The United States’ direct talks with the Taliban, resulting in a U.S. withdrawal, and the unexpectedly quick fall of Kabul have bolstered the Taliban’s image as victors in a war against a mighty superpower. Moreover, the world’s major powers, European states, and the world at large, have developed the uneasy understanding that Taliban are a political reality in Afghanistan. Hence, the Taliban’s power quotient, domestically and internationally, has considerably risen since the last time they were in power. Pakistan is no longer their only option for international support.
Even during the last period of Taliban rule, Pakistan’s leverage over the Afghan Taliban was overestimated. Pakistan remained unable to exercise its leverage on the issue of Durand Line, which is a key national security concern for Islamabad. During the Taliban’s rule in the 1990s, Pakistan was unable to pressure the Taliban into observing human rights. These examples are telling of the limits of Pakistan’s leverage over the Afghan Taliban.
Most recently, three incidents particularly raise concerns over how Pakistan’s engagement with the Afghan Taliban will evolve. First, the Taliban freed Pul-e-Charkhi prisoners which included a senior TTP commander Maulvi Faqir Muhammad. Second is the Afghan Taliban’s display of discontent over the fencing of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. And third are the Afghan Taliban’s claim that the issue of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has to be dealt by Pakistan, and not Afghanistan, though Islamabad has long complained that TTP militants find safe harbor across the border.
......
Gautam

surinder · Post by **surinder** » 05 Sep 2021 03:28

AFAIK Budhiheen has made no mention of NRF. No mention of whether Amanullah Saleh should be considered as the acting president.

What they are saying is laughable: Words are all good from Taliban but we will wait to see their action. First, words themselves are not too good. You have all the evidence from the last 18 months of negotiations and words that they don't follow even what meagre sense they say. Knowing this what is there to wait for their actions?

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 05 Sep 2021 04:55

Panjshir's fall is inevitable unless outside intervention happens. For now, no help is on the horizon. All heavy weaponry and battle hardened taliban are moving into Panjshir. So, it's just a matter of time.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 05 Sep 2021 05:12

Are all Indians out of Afghanistan?

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 05 Sep 2021 05:47

vinod wrote:Panjshir's fall is inevitable unless outside intervention happens. For now, no help is on the horizon. All heavy weaponry and battle hardened taliban are moving into Panjshir. So, it's just a matter of time.

All major powers want a centralized authority in Afghanistan. Even Putin said that there has to be stability in Afghanistan because then you have somebody that you can talk to and negotiate with. The US would not have held talks in Doha for 2 years with the Taliban if they did not want them in power. Yes the US wanted shared power and an inclusive government but the Haqqani Network with ISI backing back-stabbed the US and the Doha office of the Taliban by marching into Kabul on August 15. China certainly wants any group sponsored by ISI/Pakistan to be in control. Who does that leave that can help/support the NRF in Panjshir? India? What can India do without Russia and Iran? The supporters of the old Northern Alliance i.e. Russia and Iran, are OK with the Taliban if that means stability.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 05 Sep 2021 06:07

Pakistan’s crowing will end exactly like crowing 1.0.

Afghanistan will never be stable, whatever the definition of the term. It may get divided-Tajik, Irani, eventually Wakhan corridor going to India. Pashutanistan is more likely to incorporate Khyber areas. The last will always be in turmoil with Pakistan.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 05 Sep 2021 06:15

sanjaykumar wrote:Pakistan’s crowing will end exactly like crowing 1.0.

Afghanistan will never be stable, whatever the definition of the term. It may get divided-Tajik, Irani, eventually Wakhan corridor going to India. Pashutanistan is more likely to incorporate Khyber areas. The last will always be in turmoil with Pakistan.

Agree, I think that the Taliban and the Haqqani Network will be at each other's throats within a year, even if they are able to carve out a working arrangement for now.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 05 Sep 2021 06:18

sanjaykumar wrote:Pakistan’s crowing will end exactly like crowing 1.0.
eventually Wakhan corridor going to India.

With the trends that China is exhibiting it is vital to sever that link between China and Pakistan so that the westward expansion of China via BRI etc. is stopped. And to do that it is very important to take control of POK and the Wakhan corridor and establish an Indian border with Tajikistan. That will stop all Chinese aspirations for an overland route to the Gulf via Gwadar or Chabahar.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 05 Sep 2021 07:33

The Americans need to give their full support for this project.

More Pacific theatre than Saigon or Mogadishu or Kabul full support.

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 05 Sep 2021 12:26

g.sarkar wrote: https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/dont-as ... -pakistan/
Don’t Assume a Taliban-Ruled Afghanistan Means Smooth Sailing for Pakistan
Already, there are worrying signs that the Taliban are inclined to ignore Islamabad’s most pressing concerns.
Maryam Raashed, September 03, 2021

Surprisingly well written article clearly intended for the foreign audience. The author says nothing of the fact that every safety pin, notebook or strip of paracetamol has to make its way into Afghanistan from Pakistan. She chooses to ignore this huge leverage the Pakis have over the Afghans, maybe because the Taliban could care two hoots if there were a blockade of trade, or that the Pakis are so deeply entrenched in transit trade that they will not even consider a blockade. But the concerns emanating from Taliban regime are well summarized (i) instability/extremism making its way into Pakistan, (ii) non-recognition of the Durand line, (iii) refugee repatriation & potential refugee influx should the human rights situation worsen.

parikh_ind · Post by **parikh_ind** » 05 Sep 2021 18:51

https://www.massoudfoundation.us/
Masood Foundation Website . Looks genuine , request folks to reconfirm

Go fund me page . If genuine , time to put our money where our mouth is.
https://www.gofundme.com/f/fundraising- ... hir-valley

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 06 Sep 2021 01:46

It looks pretty hopeless at this point, the recent tweets about "reconciliation" and "united afghanistan" sounds like Panjshir resistance is within hours away from falling. The news just coming in suggests that senior northern alliance leaders Abdul Wadood and Fahim Dashti were killed in battle fighting the taliban. It was always a hopeless cause unless Panjshir could link up with Tajikistan or manages to get some sort of a air support. I sincerely hope Amrullah Saleh and Ahmed Massoud have a plan to escape, any meetings called by taliban in Kabul will be a trap . The war will be a long one, once Taliban announces the government there will be plenty of opportunities hit them hard in other places.

nam · Post by **nam** » 06 Sep 2021 01:52

It is quite surprising why Tajikistan has not made any move. I can understand about us, generally doing nothing much. Or so much under the table, no one really comes to know what has been done by us.

It is all very bizzare that the cavemen are being given so much leeway.

kit · Post by **kit** » 06 Sep 2021 01:56

nam wrote:
It is all very bizzare that the cavemen are being given so much leeway.

No one wants to spend billions on trying to take over or "nation build" those terrorists., much like the thief being asked to keep the house in order while everyone else stands outside ! ., hoping they can bring "order" , reality is no one has the stomach for another fight esp post covid

Push comes to shove., it will all be air power and bombing at best., no more "boots on the ground"

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 06 Sep 2021 02:07

All this is fine but how do we make Pakis pay for their perfidy in Afg and India?

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 06 Sep 2021 02:35

Latest I’m hearing is that UK is speaking to Tajik Govt to see if they can pressure Ahmad Massoud to join a future Govt in Afghanistan. (Which means TSP is promising west that Doha agreement will be implemented)…

Haresh · Post by **Haresh** » 06 Sep 2021 03:15

Why are the al-bbc so supportive of pakistan?
I wonder.
Would they give so much leeway if it was India ?

https://www.facebook.com/arnab.kundu.54 ... 075900172/

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 06 Sep 2021 03:37

Looks. Like paki Air Force is bombing panjshir. Maybe even using Turkish drones

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 06 Sep 2021 04:32

At least Tajikistan made some anti-taliban noise. Why is Uzbekistan quiet? What about the ethnic Uzbeks in Afghanistan??

Amoghvarsha · Post by **Amoghvarsha** » 06 Sep 2021 04:50

Vips wrote:At least Tajikistan made some anti-taliban noise. Why is Uzbekistan quiet? What about the ethnic Uzbeks in Afghanistan??

Unless Russia permits. Central Asian states will do nothing.

Amoghvarsha · Post by **Amoghvarsha** » 06 Sep 2021 04:51

If russia wanted, they had a great chance of separation of a northern Afghanistan of non pashtuns.